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LPGaswire September 18, 2023
a tender a 44,000 mt cargo of evenly split LPG for US LPG (PGA page 780)
Code Mid Change Code Mid Change
H2 October delivery at premium in the high-$10s/
Enterprise Mt Belvieu (¢/gal) Energy Transfer Mt Belvieu (¢/gal)
mt to the October Mean of Platts Japan Naphtha Ethane/propane mix M1 PMUDA05 27.075–27.175 27.125 -0.375
assessment, delivery at ship in Mailiao, a trade Ethane purity M1 PMUDB05 31.325–31.425 31.375 -0.375
Ethane purity M2 AAWUC00 29.950–30.050 30.000 -0.250
source said. The cargo will be used for Formosa’s
Propane M1 PMAAY00 75.700–75.800 75.750 -1.750 Propane M1 PMABQ00 76.325–76.425 76.375 -1.375
refinery system, as North Asia prepares for winter, the Propane M2 AAWUD00 76.450–76.550 76.500 -1.750 Propane M2 AAWUE00 76.700–76.800 76.750 -1.250
source said. Normal butane M1 PMAAI00 92.450–92.550 92.500 -0.500 Normal butane PMABR00 76.575–76.675 76.625 -0.500
Normal butane M2 AAWUF00 92.450–92.550 92.500 -0.500
Sinobenny LPG, a unit of Chin’s Shenzhen Gas, Isobutane PMAAB00 100.950–101.050 101.000 0.000
reissued a tender seeking 23,000 mt of evenly split Natural gasoline M1 PMABY05 174.950–175.050 175.000 -1.250 Natural gasoline AAIVF00 173.200–173.300 173.250 -1.250
LPG, delivery ex-ship over Oct. 10-11, trade sources Natural gasoline M2 AAWUG00 174.450–174.550 174.500 -1.250
($/mt)
said. The tender closed Sept. 18 with next-day validity. Propane AAXDD00 394.645–394.665 394.655 -9.120
Sinobenny reissued the tender after not awarding an Normal butane AAXDC00 419.015–419.035 419.025 -2.265
earlier one that closed Sept. 15 seeking 23,000 mt of Targa Mt Belvieu (¢/gal)
Natural gasoline PMABW05 173.200–173.300 173.250 -1.250
evenly split LPG for Oct. 5-25, DES Shenzhen, trade
Conway, Kansas (¢/gal)
sources said. Ethane/propane mix PMAAO00 19.700–19.800 19.750 0.000
October FEI propane’s discount to MOPJ naphtha Propane PMAAT00 75.200–75.300 75.250 -1.250
Normal butane PMAAD00 90.950–91.050 91.000 0.000
widened $2.5/mt from the previous session to $18.5/mt Isobutane PMAAA00 111.200–111.300 111.250 +1.750
on Sept. 18, though it was not steep enough to attract Natural gasoline PMAAQ00 182.950–183.050 183.000 -1.000
petrochemical makers to switch to LPG as an alternate Hattiesburg pipeline (¢/gal)
Propane AALBC00 77.200–77.300 77.250 -0.750
cracker feedstock.
Note: Spot prices exclude terminalling.
Average operating rates at China’s 25 propane
Waterborne FOB USGC ($/mt) Waterborne FOB USGC (¢/gal)
dehydrogenation plants in August were steady from Propane AAXIM00 467.270–467.290 467.280 -5.420 Propane AAXIN00 89.680–89.700 89.690 -1.040
the previous month at 65% capacities, S&P Global Propane vs. Mt Belvieu AAXIO00 66.420–66.440 66.430 0.000 vs. Mt Belvieu AAXIP00 12.700–12.800 12.750 0.000
Butane ABTNB00 466.680 -2.900 Butane ABTNA00 103.020 -0.640
Commodity Insights’ calculations based on data from Butane vs. Mt Belvieu ABTND00 48.700 0.000 vs. Mt Belvieu ABTNC00 10.750 0.000
domestic information provider JLC showed. LPG 22:22 ALPUB00 466.640 -4.150 LPG 22:22 ALPUA00 96.350 -0.840
The 25 PDH plants, with a combined propylene LPG 22:22 vs. Mt Belvieu ALPUD00 57.220 0.000 vs. Mt Belvieu ALPUC00 11.750 0.000
VLGC Freight Rates ($/mt) VLGC Freight Rates (¢/gal)
production capacity of at least 14.87 million mt/ Houston to NWE AAXIQ00 126.000 Houston to NWE AAXIR00 24.185
year, require up to 17.84 million mt/year of propane Houston to Japan AAXIS00 223.000 Houston to Japan AAXIT00 42.800
feedstock when operating at full capacity. Houston to Morocco LPHMA00 118.500
contango widened by 50 cents/mt to $14.50/mt over The LPG flow to Morocco could hit 3 million mt for Brazil prices
the same period. the first time in 2023, the analysts said. $/mt Change
Import Parity Prices* (PGA page 166)
The market awaited Saudi Aramco’s announcement US LPG exports to the Mediterranean this week LPG Suape BLSUC00 620.560 -0.930
of October-loading term cargo nominations due were forecast at 21,000 mt, down from the 95,000 mt LPG Santos BLSAC00 634.800 -0.890
over the next two days for direction on the Middle exported last week, according to Kpler shipping data. R$/kg
LPG Suape 3.010 -0.010
East supply. In other news, Nigeria’s Dangote refinery will receive BLSUD00
LPG Santos BLSAD00 3.080 -0.010
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights. its first cargo of crude in the next two weeks and will $/mt Change
begin producing up to 370,000 b/d of diesel and jet CFR Cargo (PGA page 164)
Platts Western Mediterranean LPG Daily fuel from October, a senior company executive told Propane Suape BLSUA00 578.920 -4.980
Commentary S&P Global Commodity Insights. Propane Santos BLSAA00 613.930 -4.930
R$/kg
In the FOB Med butane coaster market, no Propane Suape BLSUB00 2.810 -0.030
Moroccan imports higher on year bids, offers or trades were heard. In the absence of Propane Santos BLSAB00 2.980 -0.030
Dangote receiving first cargo soon competitive indications, the market was assessed on *LPG refers to a mix of 70% propane and 30% butane.
Spot activity in the West Mediterranean LPG market trader sentiment.
remained depressed at the start of the week, sources The West Mediterranean FOB butane market was
said Sept. 18. assessed at $630/mt, up $5/mt on the day and steady
EIA Propane stocks (PGL page 777)
Algerian shipments over January-August were up as a percentage to naphtha at 88%. This put West
million barrels PADD 09-Sep-22 25-Aug-23 01-Sep-23 08-Sep-23
10% year on year, mainly shared by Turkey, Egypt, and Mediterranean butane coasters at a $15/mt discount East Coast EIANR00 1 7.37 7.83 8.62 8.42
Italy, according to data from S&P Global Commodity to the FOB seagoing Northwest European market. Midwest EIANV00 2 22.80 24.79 25.64 26.67
Gulf Coast 3 43.07 57.31 56.19 58.42
Insights. Coaster freight from Lavera to Mohammedia was EIANW00
Total 1-3 73.24 89.93 90.44 93.51
Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights also steady and assessed at $68/mt on the back of market
pointed to Morocco’s LPG imports increasing between information received through the day. US Total EIABM00 77.88 95.47 95.98 99.11
January to August, around 5% to 2 million mt, of which The West Mediterranean FOB propane market was
1.6 million mt came from the US. assessed at $670.50/mt, up $3/mt on the day.
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In Morocco, the CIF very large cargo freight forward European LPG Weekly Averages, September 15, 2023 ($/mt) (PGL page 1776)
Code Mid Code Mid
was calculated at $595.50/mt for delivery 45-60 days
Northwest Europe
forward, up $1.75/mt on Propane FOB NWE Seagoing AABEU00 598.350–598.850 598.600 Butane FOB NWE Seagoing AABEO00 633.350–633.850 633.600
Propane FOB ARA AABEV00 626.750–627.250 627.000 Butane FOB ARA AABEP00 638.950–639.450 639.200
Platts European Propane Daily Commentary Propane FCA ARA* AABEW00 650.750–651.250 651.000 Butane FCA ARA* AABEQ00 642.950–643.450 643.200
Bio-Propane FCA NWE ABPRA04 2521.950 Butane CIF NWE Seagoing AABER00 653.150–653.650 653.400
Physical market weaker vs paper Bio-Propane FCA NWE Premium ABPRB04 1953.200
Propane CIF NWE Large Cargo AABEY00 582.250–582.750 582.500 Butane CIF NWE Large Cargo AABES00 599.150–599.650 599.400
Inland market sentiment weakens Western Mediterranean
Strong buying activity pushed up the propane Propane FOB Ex-Refinery/Storage AABEZ00 672.250–672.750 672.500 Butane FOB West Med Coaster AABET00 624.950–625.450 625.200
coaster market in Northwest Europe, while sources Propane FCA Ex-Refinery/Storage* AABFA00 682.250–682.750 682.500 Butane CIF Morocco ABTMA04 595.950
suggested that poor inland demand was weighing on Propane CIF 7000+ mt AABFB00 599.250–599.750 599.500
sentiment. *FCA ARA refers to sales onto railcars and trucks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region
While some traders saw blending demand on Platts US LPG Spot Daily Commentary the back of a rapid expansion in European biorefining
hold, as sellers withhold product until a significant capacity.
increase in prices, others said blenders were buying up US Gulf Coast propane prices drop amid The growth in demand for bionaphtha is driven
everything. bearish outlook in part by the transition to lower carbon fuels where
Despite the steep discounts for butane and September propane demand expected to drop bionaphtha is used as a gasoline blending component,
propane against naphtha, analysts at S&P Global from August as well as increasing usage from chemical crackers
Commodity Insights still saw sluggish petrochemical US Gulf Coast propane prices fell Sept. 18 as S&P that in turn supply bio-based feedstocks for consumer
demand, which has weighed on LPG imports Global Commodity Insights analysts forecast a bearish plastics production.
into Europe. outlook for propane demand heading into the second The launch of Platts Northwest European
“On trade flow, July saw 638,000 mt, August at half of the month. bionaphtha assessments follows a decision published
about 400,000 mt and barely passing the 146,000 mt Platts assessed propane at the Enterprise terminal Aug. 2 which can be found here:
in mid-September. Unlike last year when we observed a in Mont Belvieu, Texas, at 75.75 cents/gal, down 1.75 https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/
growth over the same period,” the analysts said. cents from the last close. en/our-methodology/subscriber-notes/080223-
“Similar to propane, the typical seasonal butane Propane price growth on the Gulf Coast stalled platts-to-launch-northwest-european-bionaphtha-
price increase against crude continues to face starting Sept. 12 when the price fell 2 cents to 77 assessments-sept-1
headwinds,” they said. “For the [US] butane market cents/gal after nearly a month of upward price The assessments reflect parcels of 1,000-2,000
to flip to a backwardation from a contango, the [US] movement. mt of bionaphtha, loading five to 15 days forward on
export would need to rebound in a meaningful way. According to a Sept. 18 propane outlook by S&P an FOB ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) basis.
September exports could record a new low for 2023, Global analysts, propane supply is expected to Other locations within Northwest Europe may be
with the volume so far at only 449,300 mt.” increase slightly to 101.988 million barrels in the week considered for the assessment but may be normalized
In the CIF butane cargo market, no bids, offers ended Sept. 22. The outlook forecasts that an absolute to reflect loadings basis ARA.
or trades were heard. In the absence of competitive peak could occur in mid-October at about 104 million Platts will publish the bionaphtha assessment
indications, the market was assessed on trader barrels, which would be a new record high. on an outright basis and also as a differential to the
sentiment. Demand, meanwhile, is bearish, with analysts benchmark Platts CIF NWE naphtha cargo assessment
The CIF large cargo market was assessed in outright forecasting that September average demand will drop (PAAAL00), reflecting typical trading practices. The
terms at $608.75/mt, up $5.25/mt and steady as a to 2.439 million b/d from 2.509 million b/d August. assessments will be published in both $/mt and Eur/
percentage of naphtha at 85%. However, September demand increased almost mt, time-stamped at 1630 London time.
In the butane coaster market, no bids, offers or 250,000 b/d thanks mainly to stronger exports. The bionaphtha assessments exclude material
trades were heard. In the absence of competitive Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights. produced from palm-based feedstock and mirror
indications, the market was assessed on trader applicable specifications set out in the Platts CIF NWE
sentiment. naphtha methodology, reflecting open specification
The FOB seagoing butane coaster market was Subscriber Notes material with a minimum 65% paraffin content and a
assessed at $645/mt and steady as percentage typical density of 0.69 kg/l to 0.735 kg/l.
to naphtha at 90%. The CIF market was higher as Platts launches Northwest European bionaphtha Certification Requirements:
a percentage to naphtha at 95% and assessed in assessments Sept. 1 The new assessments reflect material accompanied
outright terms at $680/mt. That put the FOB coaster at Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, with International Sustainability & Carbon Certification
a $35/mt discount to the CIF coaster. has launched bionaphtha assessments in Northwest Plus (ISCC+) issued by a European Commission-
Europe, effective Sept. 1, 2023. approved auditing body. The ISCC+ is a voluntary
Platts has observed growing supply and sustainability certification for circular and bio-based
consumption of bionaphtha in Northwest Europe on products, renewables, food, feed & biofuels, for non-
Market feedback received suggest requests for material adhering to these additional certification may
ISCC+ certification for bionaphtha used as chemical command a premium and may be normalized for the Please send any comments or feedback
feedstock to be prevailing market practice and purpose of these assessments. to europe_products@spglobal.com,
typical. Where applicable, material accompanied with The new bionaphtha assessments are published MRTS_biofuelsandfeedstocks@spglobal.com,
ISCC EU compliant certification and sustainability on Platts LPGaswire, Oilgram Price Report, APAGscan, petchems@spglobal.com and
documentation showing a minimum greenhouse EUMarketscan and USMarketWire, Platts alerts fixed pricegroup@spglobal.com.
gas saving of 50% under RED II framework may pages PGA0034, PGA1110, PGA1111, PGA1310, PGA1311, For written comments, please provide a clear
be considered for the assessments, subject to PGA1775 and Platts Dimensions Pro. indication if comments are not intended for publication
normalization. Daily Monthly by Platts for public viewing. Platts will consider all
Description
Platts understands while it is typical for buyers to Assessment Assessment comments received and will make comments not
Platts Bio-Naphtha FOB NWE USD/mt PAAAU00 PAAAU03
request for additional Kosher or Halal certifications marked as confidential available upon request.