TRENDS

MODULE 1
 DEFINING TREND

• Trend is define in various ways. In the field of arts, fashion, and music, it is a prevailing style
or preference such as realism movement in art, emergence of the miniskirt, and popularity of
jazz music. In economics, it is a general movement registering statistical changes for a long
period such as the increasing cost of living and rate of unemployment. In politics, it refers to
a tendency, drift or bend toward a certain stance, thought, or policy as when democratic
Southeast Asian countries favored authoritarian government at a certain point in their
histories. Other areas also exhibit prevailing preferences such as in sports(wearable devices
that monitor training performance), food (rise of oatmeal treatment), cosmetics (whitening
supplements), travel(paperless tickets and online check-in),manufacturing (3-D printing), and
environmental management (home solar electric system).In other words, a trend is a pattern
of behavior demonstrated by a big number of people within a particular period.
 DEFINING TREND
• Sociologists view trend as a collective behavior or mass involvement that is acceptable to society and
shows a “line of historical continuity” as it can be downplayed today but can resurface sometime in the
future. The tight pants, for instance, was the trend toward the end of the 1960s, after which, the bell-
bottom pants relegated the former to the side. Nowadays, tight pants have made a comeback, especially
in the form of skinny jeans. Commerce as an academic course became a trend for a long period of time in
the past until new courses and degrees such as computer engineering, nursing, and hotel and restaurant
management became popular and in demand. It can be observed, however, that commerce as a popular
course has made a comeback due to heightened globalization, where business and entrepreneurship play
a key role.
 SPOTTING A TREND
• Someone or something starts or causes a trend. A person who starts a trend is called a trendsetter.
The individual's act or the event has attracted attention ,earned acceptance, and created strong
interest and influence on people whose number keeps snowballing as days go by. The act or event is
something different from what is currently going on and it becomes “the next big thing.” It
demonstrates an accelerated spread among various sectors and areas and creates a deep and wide
scope of influence on people, sectors, and the environment. It leads to change. According to futurists
(a futurist is one who studies and predicts the future, especially on the basis of current trends) Alf
Rehn and Magnus Lindkvist (2013), trendspotting refers to “the study of trends and the way they
develop and affect society. "This should be differentiated from cool-hunting, which is “a hunt for those
things that will become popular before they are popular.” Trend analysis is “based on trendspotting
but it extends this into developing future scenarios.” Cool-hunting can be understood as looking for
things that are going to be popular, whereas trendspotting is looking for future trends, generally
including those that are less or not obvious, which ultimately affect society and the way people live.
Trendspotting requires more analysis. For example, discovering what accessories will hit the fashion
markets in the next season is cool-hunting, as well as a record label producer looking for the next
singing sensation.
 SPOTTING A TREND

• Trend spotting seeks broader subjects that lead to changes in human perception,
say, in clothing and music. Imagine how the marketers of the denim jeans, notably
Levi's, positioned denim jeans from being a workwear to being quality wear that
exudes individuality and informality. Soon, the denim jeans became ubiquitous in
every country and a must-have. Think of composers and performers of pop music
that help define the taste of a generation of listeners, possibly touching emotions
and upholding attitudes. Original Pilipino Music (OPM),which started in the late
1970s, provided songs with a uniquely Filipino pop feel different from the previous
colonially influenced songs and art songs. Trendspotting is the basis for trend
analysis, which has applications in several fields. Here are the characteristics that a
trend spotter should possess, based and adapted from Rehn and Lindkvist(2013).
 SPOTTING A TREND
• 1.Adopt a beginner's mind - Know how to unlearn things. With a beginner's mind, you can see
things in a new light, as if everything is new and strange; thus you will be able to detect even small
changes and shifts that field experts tend to ignore.
• 2. Know why and what you are looking for - Ascertain first the reason why you are looking for
trends. Only then can you focus on what kinds of trends to spot and how to specifically look for
them. The reasons of a businessman are different from those of an enthusiast, a traveler, or a
writer.
• 3. Move and search in many places - Look beyond what and where others are looking for and
searching at. Dare to look for something different and do not remain in your comfort zones. As an
analogy, instead of going where the tourist guide leads you, try to explore other places and go to
areas where most do not go to or even notice. When you are led to the mostly used hashtag, for
example, you are merely cool-hunting. Learn to take note of what is happening now to imagine and
search what will be happening in the future.
 SPOTTING A TREND

• 4. Beware of the obvious - Do not join the bandwagon of the obvious-the flashy
things (the peacock). Remember that if something is easy to spot, everyone most
likely sees it too. Things that are less visible (the pigeons) effect changes in culture
and society. Just think about how the mundane plastic chairs (monobloc chairs)
influenced how people gather and how ubiquitous they have been.
• 5. Never judge something as good or bad - Set aside your biases and be objective
in looking for trends. You may not like a topic, but you have to pursue knowing
more of it if you are to be an effective trend spotter. Pay attention to anything
related to it and be critical too. For example, some may find internet memes as
unattractive, tasteless, or ridiculous, but their mere presence and popularity speak
a ton about a kind of internet user that finds more sense of the world through visual
culture.
 SPOTTING A TREND

• 7. Look for shifts rather than novelties - Observe for changes in how things are done or in people's
behaviors when something new is introduced. Do not delve on the novelty of a gadget, for example, per
se. An undergoing shift is a good sign of a developing trend. At first,the remote-controlled drone was
seen as a fad with many enthusiasts purchasing one. Then we see drones being used in filmmaking,
shooting documentaries, news reporting, taking photographs, and even in delivering packages. In
photography, the use of drones has given us new perspectives in terms of seeing things, ushering in a
bigger and better understanding or view of the world, literally and figuratively. Also included in this
particular characteristic is the importance of taking note of what people actually do in contrast with what
they say they do.

• 8. Spot for combinations of things - Do not think of trends as a singular evolution or development of
things. They come as a combination of shifts or individual spots. For example, the ease by which we can
use social media today has been made possible due to a combination of the following: internet
connection, smartphone technology, apps development, globalization, algorithms, and emergence of
netizens, to name a few.
 SPOTTING A TREND
• 9. Find the reason for something - However difficult this may be, seek logical explanations and causes for
everything. By understanding the reasons behind things, behaviors, changes, and shifts, you can get a better
understanding of an emerging trend. Merely looking at the surface is not enough. Considering something as
inexplicable is not enough as well.
• By spotting a trend, you can think of ways to maintain your lead in your field of specialization, detect new
opportunities to grab, and “invent” a future life for you, your family, and your close friends. Institutions and
trends specialists have been set up primarily to conduct lectures, work shops, demonstrations, and trend tours
regarding the techniques of trendspotting. Such institutions and specialists provide tried and tested methods
and tools to enable businesspeople, organizations, and enterprises to spot the upcoming trends that will affect
them, and consequently, to be equipped to predict the future of their respective industries before their closest
rivals are able to do so. There are journals and publications that specialize in following trends, and they have
become vital sources of information regarding major trends that will shape the future. Monthly and quarterly
forecasts tell how these trends will impact on one's life regardless of profession and business, how one can
benefit from them, and how to evade disastrous falls or grave mistakes that such trends might cause.
 TRENDS VS. FADS
• Trend and fad are both group patterns of behavior but not without differences. A trend lasts for a longer period
of time than a fad. It may take years before a trend slows down, but it only takes a few weeks or months for a fad
to stay. Thus, a fad is a temporary or short-lived pattern of group behavior. The Beatlemania in the 1960s and the
hippie trends lasted for decades, whereas the fad of the song “Bboom Bboom” by Momoland was short-lived. A
trend has a record of occurrence in the past and might continue to the present, something which is unseen in a
fad. It leaves a long, significant mark in history and could go on to the present.
• The rise of One Direction ushered back the boy band trend in music, which recurs intermittently since the
1960s.The “Katchi” dance challenge and the mannequin challenge that went viral on television and social media
were fads that quickly faded away. Moreover, while trends can reflect or give the impression of people of a
certain status that can afford to drink gourmet coffee and eat organic food, fads are not associated with status
symbols and are taken lightly by the nonparticipating public. Sometimes, a trend can be considered as having
implications on the social status of participants. This is true especially in fashion and food.
• Trends and fads can happen in areas of life where change or transformation continuously occurs. This means that
while you are alive, you will encounter and experience various trends and fads.
 ELEMENTS OF TREND
• The following are elements or components of a trend:
• 1.Number of participants – A trend maybe started by an individual but the number of people who follow it
becomes bigger as time goes by. The group grows into a community which,not long after, swells into national
and international societies. The prevailing fashion of a period, for example, follows what celebrities are wearing
or what fashion designers offer.People often copy the trendsetters and so a new fashion trend develops. In the
recent century, styles of clothing are usually distinguished by decades.
• 2. Pattern of behavior - A trend is formed from repetitive actions of people. The simple act of taking a selfie has
now become a cultural trend. It is almost impossible not to see someone taking a selfie in any place-be it in a
tourist spot, in a restaurant,in a hotel lobby,beside a movie poster in a cinema, in a concert hall, and at an event,
among others.Before smartphones and portable digital cameras, pictures or portraits were taken by another
person. The selfie phenomenon enabled people to construct themselves visually and present it to the public by
putting it on social media. Some view the taking of selfies with disdain as a symbol of narcissism and
superficiality, whereas others consider it as an act of self-exploration and a gauge for acceptance.
 ELEMENTS OF TREND
• 3. Long period of time - A trend has a long time frame, sometimes running for decades.A trend may experience
some ups and downs in popularity, may fade away, and may reoccur .For many decades, the telephone was the
main line of voice communication. It revolutionized modern living and had great impacts socially, both positive
and negative. Soon, it was overtaken by the popularity of mobile phones in the late 1990s, which are portable
and have the text messaging feature. Then newer technologies allowed smartphones to include many
applications and internet connectivity. Although telephones are still present in homes and offices, smartphones
clearly have gotten ahead in functionality and usage.
• 4. Cause - A trend has a starting point, which can be an idea, technology, event, or person. Portable audio players
were popularized when Walkman was introduced in the 198os, allowing people to listen to recorded music
(cassette tapes) through headphones or earphones. Later, it would evolve in the form of a portable CD player.
Then came another revolutionary trend with the advent of digital audio players where the music playlist could be
saved onto the device or be downloaded online. Now, mobile phones and smartphones also function as a
portable music player. The culture of portable music has come a long way from the invention of the transistor
radio, and is still evolving depending on new emerging technologies.
 ELEMENTS OF TREND

• 5. Consequence - A trend makes considerable influence or impact. Social

networking has become an encompassing trend that tends to influence
behaviors of online users. With the popularity of smartphones, users began
subscribing to various social networking portals, which enable them to post
activity statuses and photos, and even connect with celebrities. People can now
air their opinions on diverse matters and say almost anything instantly. Social
networking users have reached billions.
 CHARACTERISTICS OF TRENDS

• Trends are difficult to study and analyze. Studying them is like predicting the future and
determining what changes may possibly last, and thus they have wide effects on society and
the people. Rehn and Lindkvist (2013) have mentioned a so-called hierarchy of trends,which
explains why trends seem to have varying reach, effects, and influences on people. This
hierarchy is a representation of the scale of the development of a trend. Microtrends are
“little things that happen all around us all the time, the tiny shifts that occur in everything
from clothes we wear and the snacks we eat to the way we work, play, and love." These
trends happen right now and are outright observable. For others, microtrends are
synonymous with fads. The importance of microtrends is that they offer a glimpse about the
future through the clues they possess. Macrotrends, on the other hand, are “aggregated
microtrends or more sweeping changes that are affecting society.” They provide major
changes that are perceptible in the societal level for a longer period. These are more stable
than microtrends, which can quickly fizzle out.
 CHARACTERISTICS OF TRENDS

• Megatrends are “macrotrends that have grown up and moved out. They are big and bold,
'and affect the lives of great swathes of the human race." They can last for decades and are
“so pervasive as to be generally known." Because of this condition, megatrends are regarded
as obvious and evident. In other words, they have become the prevailing condition that has
become too normal. Gigatrends are “trends that are so general that they affect most areas of
human life-or, at least, more than one aspect of life or more than one industry." Gigatrends
are usually identified to define an era. To illustrate this hierarchy of trends, study the
following examples. Internet connection is now considered a gigatrend as its functions are
now tied up to the everyday activities of people all around the world. It has become too
normal such that it is now the base of several vital activities such as banking, business, online
communication, information gathering and dissemination, research, entertainment,
transactions, gaming, shopping, and more.
 CHARACTERISTICS OF TRENDS
• Smartphones can be considered a megatrend (if not bordering on being a gigatrend itself). They
have affected many lives and industries. In fact, many check their smartphones first thing in the
morning to read text or private messages, surf the Net, and so on. Many human activities also
depend on smartphones, whether directly or indirectly. Texting, likewise,has changed how people
communicate. In the past, communication was done through audio signals care of the telephone.
With texting, which traces its roots to a mobile phone function, communication can now be done
through digitally written words sent instantly. Social media can be considered as a macrotrend, but
it can arguably turn into a megatrend considering how common it is nowadays. The continuous
development of platforms and apps made the concept of social media pervasive across computer
and smartphone users. While social media would not have been a trend without the overall
influence of the internet it has, nonetheless, given many people a venue to be heard and to
exchange thoughts, opinions, and ideas.
 CHARACTERISTICS OF TRENDS

• Popular games and apps on smartphones are examples of microtrends. One game
can create a mania that later wanes to give way to another. A few games have
attained a higher level in the trends hierarchy, such as Super Mario, which actually
started in the 198os but has resurfaced through different gaming platforms. For
some, this particular game is a representation of an era to which they belong. In
recent years, the mobile game Pokemon GO has become very popular. The
augmented reality feature of the game caught the public's interest and was
downloaded many times, such that its developers earned almost $800 million in
2018. Trends can also refer to movements, ideologies,concepts,beliefs, and more.
The important thing in studying trends is to observe them closely for subtle and
sudden shifts that ultimately affect people,cultures, and societies in general.
IDENTIFYING PARTS OF A WHOLE
 IDENTIFYING PARTS OF A WHOLE
• Another example is the visual culture we experience today. It was developed from various trends-
digital camera, smartphone, internet, Wi-Fi technology, social media,mobile apps, computer,
fashion, art, and photography, to name a few. Internet memes, infographics, and sharable videos
seemed to be a microtrend only, but they eventually became a mainstay in disseminating
information. Even large news organizations and government websites use them.This visual culture
trend (which can be considered a megatrend) has evolved further with the advent of the internet.
The smartphone and Wi-Fi access greatly helped the new form of visual culture that is subscribed
to by many social media users, if not all. Remember that microtrends can become macrotrends if
they affect more lives and societies. Then macrotrends can become a megatrend if it can affect a
much larger group for a longer period of time.Megatrends can become gigatrends if they have
ever-lasting effects and influences.Therefore, it is evident that a larger thing (the whole) consists of
smaller things or parts.
 IDENTIFYING EMERGING PATTERN

• A pattern is a design, shape, form, or configuration that emerges from

repetitious appearance of lines, curves, and behavior. In the study of trends,
repetitive behavior that gives rise to an emerging pattern is the main interest.
To follow and observe if a pattern emerges out of various events and
phenomena, one should have the tools necessary to detect it. The tools that a
trendspotter should find handy to use are categorized into four activities.
According to Rehn and Lindkvist (2013),these activities are the following:
 IDENTIFYING EMERGING PATTERN

• 1. Documentation- This means being able to record your observations that you consider
related to any trend.The primary tools for documentation, however simple,are notebook and
pen. Some opt to use note-taking features or apps on a smartphone or tablet. The camera
has also become necessary in providing visuals. Others bring a voice recorder, which is best
for saving audio. Whatever tool one uses, the important thing in documentation is the ability
to physically keep information and data wherever and whenever you may be.
• 2. Archive or Memory - This means being able to easily retrieve any documentation you have
kept. Nowadays, the most space-saving way of archiving is turning the physical into digital.
Notes can be scanned or converted to a portable document format (PDF) while digital
pictures can be easily saved. Physical archiving can, of course, still be used. There are various
digital archiving systems that are available too. Tagging and cross-indexing are helpful in
labeling files.
 IDENTIFYING EMERGING PATTERN
• 3. Analysis-This is the stage where examination and combination happens. Looking for patterns on prospective
trends can be achieved through these methods: brainstorming, grouping, and crafting combinations. In
brainstorming, you decide which from your data is important and which can be discarded. Here, you can confirm
emerging patterns such as events becoming more frequent and things following a cycle. In grouping, you create
headings where observations and data can fall under. In crafting combinations, you begin to link one thing to
another and think what could happen if these are taken a step further, more like imagining or generating new
ideas.
• 4.Presentation - This is representing your findings for easy understanding as a way of analysis. You can represent
your findings through, among others, a mood board and a storyboard. A mood board is a collage of images, text,
and object samples. This is used to “capture your intuition and stimulate creative discussions about trends.” A
storyboard presents a narrative of possible scenarios. It functions to "connect trends to a timeline and to
different contexts, something that can enable you and others to see interesting new things.” A slideshow is also
another option. In presentation, you do not merely present your ideas but use it as an analytical technique.
Sometimes, new trends are labeled with new names or terms in the hope of popularizing a phenomenon.
 DIFFERENTIATING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN
CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES
• A cause refers to an agent that brings about a result or a consequence. A consequence is always traceable to a
cause, which can be a person, thing, principle,motive,act, or event. There is no cause without a consequence and
vice versa.For example, strong typhoons in a certain area may cause damages in lives and property, which will
prompt the government and nongovernment organizations (NGOs) to call for donations. Some media outlets
may also organize fundraising events as a result.

• The Beatlemania trend in the 1960s was caused by The Beatles, a British singing quartet who earned the
adulation of millions of fans around the world. The group heavily influenced the pop culture landscape by
changing the face of the music industry and creating new fashion and hairstyle.They were also considered
gender-benders as their songs empowered feminism and their demeano veered away from machismo, leading to
a changed view of masculinity. The Beatlemania introduced the tight pants, androgynous and colorful clothes,
and mop-top hairdo among the youth. It also brought in a surge in fandom never seen before. Teenage girls
were relentlessly screaming throughout the band's live performances. This behavior is still evident in fan crazes of
subsequent male pop groups. were relenuessty screaming throughout the band's live performances. This
behavior is still evident in fan crazes of subsequent male pop groups.
 DIFFERENTIATING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN
CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES
• So, Beatlemania was, of course, caused by the rise of The Beatles to the top of the pop music scene. The effect of
Beatlemania was not only limited to Britain and the U.S. but it spread to the rest of the world. The recent travel
boom can be traced to low airfares and satellite-based navigation system. Additionally, more and more people
go on weekend travels and document them in their blogs. The photos they attach and publish online encourage
others to visit the same places, therefore increasing the tourism income of the locals. In world politics, the
democratization (transition from authoritarian regime to a more democratic system) trend that recorded an
upward trajectory starting from 1989 to the early 2000s was triggered by the breakdown of authoritarian regimes
symbolized by the fall of the Berlin Wall.The Berlin Wall separated the communist East Berlin and East Germany
(German Democratic Republic) from the capitalist West Berlin and West Germany (Federal Republic of
Germany).For decades after the Second World War, the partition of Germany reflected the fighting ideologies
between the democratic-capitalist world, on one hand, and the socialist- communist blocs, on the other hand,
during the so-called Cold War era. The demolition of the Berlin Wall had global effects. Several revolutions and
change of power in Europe (Poland, Hungary,Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania) also followed or predated
the fall of Berlin Wall. This event resonated to other communist states and eventually led to the collapse of the
Soviet Union into separate independent republics in 1991. This victory of democracy over communism, which
supported authoritarian regimes or dictatorships, signaled the end of the Cold War.
 DIFFERENTIATING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN
CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES
• The rise of extremism and terrorism in recent history was brought about by certain ideologies that
first spread underground among disgruntled groups of people. The terrorist attack last 11
September 2001 (known as 9/11) ushered many changes in politics and security as a new world
order was put in place. What followed were frequent terrorist and extremist activities perpetuated
by groups such as al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State. Their adherents staged terrorist attacks
in many world cities while others were commanded by their superiors to make individual and
uncoordinated attacks. This trend of violence caused policy changes (such as controlling the influx
of immigrants to Europe), the resurgence of racism, a surge of rightist movements, and an increase
in anti-establishment sentiments, to name a few. The string of events detailed in the previous
paragraph exemplifies the cause-consequence relationship wherein one event may lead to another
and so on. A cause brings about one or more consequences, which may be either positive or
negative.Whatever the results of a cause, the events that are noted in each result will help produce
a picture of a trend that is studied to be adopted in many life applications. The relationship
between cause and consequence is salient to strategic thinking and analysis.