INDEX 1 THEORY 2 MEASURES OF LOCATION 3 STEM & LEAVES 4 BOX PLOT 5 HISTOGRAM 6 PROBABILITY 7 CORRELATION & REGRESSION 8 DISCRETE RANDOM VARIALBES 9 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION 10 MIXED QUESTIONS (CLASSIFIED) 2) 27 4) 87, 131 165 1971 THEORYQuestion Number Scheme Marks 1-() To simply real world problem To improve understanding! describe analyse a real word problem Quicker and cheaper than using real thing To predict possible future outcomes Refine model change parameters possible Any2 {) 2.4 height, weight {i) score on a face ater tossing a fair die Indicates max / median | min / upper quartile/ lower quartile (2 or more) Indicates outliers (or equivalent description) Ilustrates skewness (or equivalent description e.g. shape) Any 3 rows Allows comparisons Indicates range / IQR / spread 181 2) 181 2 fotal 4 marks BL BL BLQuestion| Scheme Marks number 3- (a)] Used to simplify or represent a real world problem Cheaper or quicker or easier (than the real situation) or more easily modified To improve understanding of the real world problem (any two lines) BI Used to predict outcomes from a real world problem (idea of predictions) BI | (b)| Gory Model used to make predictions. (Idea of predicted values based | B1 ‘on the model) (4or3) (Experimental) data collected BI o Model is refined. BI @) 5 marks (a) | 1"B1 For one line ) 2" BI Fora second line Be generous for 1“ B1 but stricter for BIB1 1° &2™ BI These two points can be interchanged, Idea of values from (experimental) data and predicted values based on the model. I“ BI for predicted values from model e.g. “model used to gain suitable data” 2" BI for data collected. Idea of experimental data but “experiment” needn’t be explicitly seen 3"BI This should be stage 7. Idea of refinement or revision or adjustment2 MEASURES OF LOCATION x= 2% nNQuestion Scheme Marks Number l-@ P(both longer than 24.5); + or 0.037 or 0.037 2 fracs x w/o rep. MIAL awrt 0.037 (2) (b) Estimate of mean time spent on their conversations is 3 “= 95 or 19.27 or 19.3 1060/total, awrt 19.3 or 19mins 16s || MIA1 (2) ) 21x80=1680 | BL Subtracting ‘their 1060] M1 Dividing their 620 by 25 MIAL (4) @ Increase in mean value. B1 Length of conversations increased considerably during 25 weeks relative to 55 weeks context - ft only from comment abov. Bis (2) Total 10Question number Scheme Marks > @ ) © @) © o (8) Positive skew (both bits) |B1 a 95 + 00-29), 1 x10, = 26.7093... awrt 26.7 |MI,Al (2) (N.B. Use of 60.5 gives 26.825... so allow awrt 26.8) 9.5833... or 292, awrt 29.6 | B1 2 = 138020 _ 2 gy 138020 MI 120) 120 =16.5829... or (s=16.652...) awrt 16.6 (or s= 16.7) Al @) 9 3(29.6-26.7) 16.6 =052.... awrt 0.520 (or with s awrt 0.518)| Al 8) (NB. 60.5 in (b) ..awrt 0.499[or with s awrt 0.497) MIAIft 0.520 >0 correct statement about their (d) being >0 or <0] B1ft So it is consistent with (a) fttheir(@) |dBift @ Use Median BL Since the data is skewed or less affected by outliers/extreme values fBI @ W the data are symmetrical or skewness is zero or normal/uniform distribution |B1 a (“mean =median” or “no outliers” or “evenly distributed” all score BO) 14 marks (b) © @ wo) MI for (19.5 or 20) + 0-2) Allow their 0.5 [or 0.5(n+1)] instead of 60 [or 60.5] for MI x10 or better. Allow 60.5 giving awrt 26.8 for MIAL MI foracorrect expression for o,0°,s or s*.NB 74.99 and s* = 277.30 Condone poor notation if answer is awrt16.6 (or 16.7 for s) M1 for attempt to use this formula using their values to any accuracy. Condone missing 3 1* Aft for using their values to at least 3st. Must have the 3. 2 AL for using accurate enough values to get awrt 0.520 (or 0.518 if using s) NB Using only 3 sf gives 0.524 and scores MIA1AO 1° BI for saying or implying correct sign for their (d). Blg and BIft. Ignore “correlation” if seen 2" BI fora comment about consistency with their (4) and (a) being positive skew, ft their (d) only This is dependent on 1" B1: so if (d)>0, they say yes, if (d)<0 they say no. 2" B1 is dependent upon choosing median.Question Scheme Marks Number 3. @ AWRT 230 MI, A1 8734045 AWRT 87.3 |M1, Al [Accept s = AWRT 91.2) 4) (b) Ordered list is: 125, 160, 169, 171, 175, 186, 210, 243, 250, 258, 390, 420 (186 +210) =198 BI Q, =+(169+171) =170 Ba Q, =4(250 +258) = 254 B1 @ © Q, +1.5(Q, -Q,) = 254 +1.5(254-170),= 380, Accept AWRT (370-392) M1, AL Patients F (420) and B (390) are outliers. Bit Bit @ - - 5. @ B= 20, +O, 100-2198 4 254 _ 9 AWRT0.33. |M1,A1 2-2 254-170 Positive skew. |ALft ) Total 14 marks DF wi (a) MI for using * with a credible numerator and n= 12 n 2™ M1 for using a correct formula, root required but can ft their mean NB Use of s = ¥8321.8 91.22... is OK for MIA1 here. Answers only from a calculator in (a) can score full marks (b) 1 B1 for median= 198 only, 2™ B1 for lower quartile 3" B1 for upper quartile S.C. Ifall Q, and Q, are incorrect but an ordered list (with > 6 correctly placed) is seen and used then award BOB | as a special case for these last two marks. © M1 for a clear attempt using their quartiles in given formula, JAl for any value in the range 370 - 392 ISB1f for any one correct decision about B or F - ft their limit in range (258, 420) 2™ Bift for correct decision about both F and B - ft their limit in range (258, 420) If more points are given score BO here for the second B mark. (Can score MOAOBIB1 here) @ MI for an attempt to use their figures in the correct formula — must be seen (2 correct substitutions) HS Al for AWRT 0.33 " Alft for positive skew. Follow through their value/sign of skewness Ignore any further calculations. “positive correlation” scores AOQuestion Number Scheme Marks 4 (a) (00-58) mt a1 Se ha 17.1 (17.2 if use 60.5) awrt 17.1 (0117.2) | At (2) () |S fe= 20555 fe” =36500.25 Exact answers can be seen below or implied | 8* 81 by correct answers, Evidence of attempt to use midpoints with at least one correct | M1 Mean = 17.129... awrt 17.1 | B1 Mt . =3.28 (s= 3.294) awnt3.3 [AT (6) (c) | 3(17.129-17.1379. ( a8 = -0,00802 Accept 0 or awrt 0.0 | M1 At No skew/ slight skew BI (3) (d) | The skewness is very small. Possible. B1 Bidep (2) [13] Notes freq into class 4(a) Statement of 17+ class freq ew and attempt to sub or m=I17 _ 60(.5)-58 19-17 87-58 ‘ew=2 or 3 required for M1 17.2 from cw=3 award AO. 4(b) Correct Sfx and Si” can be seen in working for both Bs Midpoints seen in table and used in calculation award M1 Require complete correct formula including use of square root and attempt to sub for MI. No formula stated then numbers as above or follow from (b) for MI (YA Lor, f7x used instead of Y fx? in sd award MO Correct answers only with no working award 2/2 and 6/6 4(c) Sub in their values into given formula for ML 4(d) No skew / slight skew / ‘Distribution is almost symmetrical’ / ‘Mean approximately equal to median’ or equivalent award first B1, Don’t award second B1 if this is not the case. Second statement should imply “Greg’s suggestion that a normal distribution is suitable is possible’ for second B1 dep. 1f BO awarded for comment in (c).and (A) incorrect, allow follow through from the comment in (c). or equivalent award M1Question Scheme Marks Number 5. (@ | 2.75 or 24, 5.5 or$.50 or S54 Bt Bt (2) (>) | sean birth weight = 4841 _ 3.9973 awrt 3.23 | M1 At 1500 @) © Standard deviation = 0.421093... or s = 0.4212337, Mt ANE At @) | 9 =3,00+23 .0.5=3.2457. {allow 403.5..... > 3.25) | M1 At 820 (2) (€) | Mean(3.23) median therefore positive skew Bift Bift 2) 7] Notes (@) | MI for an attempt to use interpolation to find the median. Condone use of 39 or 40 for 39.5 2 2 eg. allow 39+—x10 (0) or 40-+=x10 (o.,) to score MIAO but must have the 10 Al for awrt 41.3 (or awrt 41.8 if using (n + 1) (b) | BI for awrt 44.2 M1 fora correct expression including square root. (Allow ft of their mean) AL for awrt 14.7 (If using s for awrt 14.9) You may see })¢=1339->7=41.8 and Yr’ =62928 6 14.7 ors= 14.9 Mid-points | this scores BO for the mean but can score MI for a correct st.dev expression and Al for ans Correct answer only in (a) and (b) can score full marks but check (1 +1) case in (a) (©) | 1" B1ft_ for a correct comparison of their mean and their median (may be in a formula) Calculating median — mean as negative is OK for this BI but must say +ve skew for 2™ BI Only allow comparison to be ~0 if mean— median] <0.5 2" BIft for a correct description of skewness based on their values of mean and median. ft their values for mean and median not their previous calculation/comparison Must be compatible with their previous comparison (if they have one) “Positive skew” with no reason is BOB provided you can see their values that imply that, Description should be “positive” or “negative” or “no” skew or “symmetric” “Positive correlation” is BO Quartiles | I B1ft if Q,= awrt 32 and Q,= awrt 49 seen and a correct comparison made. ft Q, 2" Blft if Q,=awrt 32 or Q,= awrt 49 seen and a correct description based on their quartiles and their comparison is made. (Should get “negative skew”)Question Scheme Marks Number @) 105 BI @ (b) MI 15.875 or 16.0625 | Al 2 191 © 5.918 [Accept =~ or 1524] MI,AL 78 (accept s = 5.88) MIAILIt, AL 6) (a) _ | Sinee mean and median are similar or equal or very close) a normal distribution | may be suitable. [Allow mean or median close to mode/modal class} qa ) Qs -O,(=8) > (4.5=)0,-Q, Mi Therefore positive skew AL 2) (11 marks) Notes In parts (a) to (©) a correct answer with no working scores full marks for that value. (a) — | BI for 10.5 which may be in the table (6) | M1__for acorrect ratio and times 3, ignore the lower boundary for this mark Al for awrt 15.9 (if n =30 used) or awrt 16.1 (if n+1 = 31 is used) (© 1° M1 for attempt at )'fx (this may be seen in the table as fx: 10, 73.5, 70, 136, 82, 106 fx [condone 1 slip] or awrt $00) and use of ss or a correct expression for mean, IAL for awrt 15.9 2" MIL for an attempt at o or o, can ft their mean, condone mis-labelling 0? = V... ete Allow use of their fx” (awrt 9000) 2 Al ft for a correct expression including square root, ft their mean but not their fx" . No label or correct label is OK but wrong label (e.g. 0 =... ) is AO 3" Al for awrt 5.78, allow awrt 5.88. SC Allow MIALA0 for awrt 5.79 if x correct B1__ fora reason implying or stating symmetry, "Time is continuous” or “evenly distributed” is @ | a9 [© MI fora clear reason ot comparison, values not essential but comparison implying they have been found is required. A1 for stating "positive skew". Condone just "positive" but "positive correlation" is AOQuestion Scheme Marks 9 (a) | Str =4837.5 (allow 4838 or 4840) Bl Mean = "8375" _ 94.1875 awt 24.2012 | Mi At 200 ~~ 16 134281.25 (2 *) MI = 9.293 (accept » =9.32) awrt 9.29 Al 6 (b) 100 / 100.5 — 62: © (20 5] UOOHNO05 8), >p 659 . awit 22.7 MIAI 2) ©) 50/5025) « =105+ E1025) 0[-18 56] “ (n+ 1 gives 18.604...) Bl cso a (@) | Q=25.5 (Use of n + 1 gives 25.734...) BI IQR=6.9 (Use of n+ 1 gives 7.1) Blft Q) (e) | The data is skewed (condone “negative skew”) BI a (£) | Mean decreases and st. dev. remains the same. [Must mention mean and st. dev.] (from(a)) | B1 ‘The median and quartiles would decrease. [Must refer to median and at least Q,.] ((b)(c)) | B1 The IQR would remain unchanged (from (d)) BL @) (14 marks) Notes Correct answers only score full marks in each part except (c) (a) |B1 for 4837.5 or 4838 or 4840 seen. Ifno ft seen (or attempt at )"fr seen), B1 can be implied by a correct mean of awrt 24.2 VMI forattempt at their allow Isfso Dt =awrt 200 and Pir = awrt 5000. Or award M1 for a clear attempt at mean where at least 4 correct products of )"fr are seen 2™M1__ for correct expression including square root seen. Follow through their mean. Allow a transcription error in 13428125 but not an incorrect re-calculation. (b)| M1 fora correct fraction x5 . Ignore end point but must be +. Allow use of (1 + 1) giving 100.5... (©) | Bleso fora fully correct expression including end point. NB Answer is given. Allow use of (n + 1) giving 50.25...but use of 50.5 scores BO (d) | 1"B1 for 25.5 (or awrt 25.7 using n + 1) 2" B1ft for their Q, — their Q, (or 18.6) (provided > 0) Accept awrt 2sf . Correct ans. only scores 2/2 (e) | BI ‘Must mention that the data is skewed or not symmetrical. Do not award for “outliers” (© | Bl for one correct comment from the above. May refer to parts (a), (b), (c) or (d) 2 B1 for two correct comments from the above 3° B1__ for all 3 correct comments from the above un‘Question Question Scheme Marks 10- (a) | a= 282 _ 1385 _ 27 _ gy awrt 92.3 | MI AI 15 153 75-5 b=[895+] 2 (04.5-29.5) - 92.625 awrt 92.6 | MIAL BOT AS 92. = 64.88 awrt 649 | MI AL ©) (by | Median in 2010 (92.6 kg) > Median in 1990 (82.0 kg) Mean in 2010 (92.3 kg) > Mean in 1990 (83.0 kg) either BI Rugby coach’s claim supported dep dBi Q Total 8 Notes (@) | Correct answer only in part (a) scores full marks and answers must be decimals not fractions NB mid points are: 77, 82, 87, 92, 97, 102, 107 a|1®M1_ for attempt to use correct midpoints in an expression for mean, fx Accept 2% with at least 3 correct f products seen and intention to add or 1300 < )'fr < 1400 T®AL for awrt 92.3 (don’t insist on 3 sf) b2"'MI for 2x8 (94.5-89.5) or FSo4s-s9 5) May see them come down from the top of the interval, look out for: From 975 9-8 above [945-} 5S (4 5-895) or [94.5— jg O45-895) Correct end point and [| not needed for MI i.e. MI is for correct fraction x correct class width 2 AL for awrt 92.6 For n+ 1 case (gives 93.25 so allow awrt 93.3) Don’t insist on 3 sf The correet answer must not follow from an incorrect expression. c]3°M1 fora fully correct expression ft their a e.g, “28895 4 or =m 3° Al for awrl 64.9 (Accept s? ~ 69.5238... or awrt 69.5) Don’t insist on 3 sf (b)}1"B1 fora suitable reason ie. identifying an increase in mean or median Ignore any comment about variance. 2" dBI_ dependent on a suitable reason for stating that the coach’s claim is supported Allow these marks provided both their a > 83.0 and their b > 82.0 If it is NOT the case that both a> 83.0 and b > 82.0 then allow a ft provided M1 scored for both a and b in part (a)Question Question Scheme Marks 1" mmean = 25420 or 60.8=14r-20 (0.0) MI = S7.7142... awit 57.7 Al standard deviation = $2 gy 6,60= 14x MI = 4.702, awit 4.71 Al 4) Total 4 Notes IML sub, 60.8 for y into a correct equation. Allow use of x or any other letter or expression for mean AL forawn 37.7 or 4 (oe, Correct answer only is 2/2 2" M1 sub. 6.60 or 6.6 for y and ignoring the 20 Allow use of x or any other letter or expression for st. dev 4° x? is MO until we see them take a square root, 3 6.60" = 2" AL forawst 4.71 or 33 (0.0). Comect answer only is 2/2ENG. SANDRA SABRYQuestion Scheme Marks Number 1-(a) Mode is 56 Bt B1,B1,81 “ (b) BE (3) @ ‘exact or awrt 49.4 Bt MIAth awrt 14.6(5) or 14.9 M 4) (d) awrt range -0.44 to -0.46 MIAt 146 8 Q @ For negative skew; Mean = 52.464286.. awrt 52.5 | vprqy 81213 (146: ML 28) =12.164..., or 12.387216...for divisor n-1 awrt 12.2 or 12.4 | Al 4] @ 52.46..-50 Se awe 0.200r0.21 MIA1 2 ©) 1. mode/median/mean Balmoral>mode/median/mean Abbey 2. Balmoral sd < Abbey sd or similar sd or correct comment from their values, Balmoral rangeAbbey IQR or similar IQR 3, Balmoral positive Skew or almost »\ ical AND Abbey negative skew, Balmoral is less skew than Abbey or correct comment from their value in (d) 4, Balmoral residents generally older than Abbey residents or equivalent. Only one comment of each type max 3 marks | BIBIB1 BI Total 13 Notes: (©) Mifor their 1469 between 1300 and 1600, divided by 28, Al for awrt 52.5... Please note this is BIB1 on Epen M1 use of correct formula including sq root Al awrt 12.2 or 12.4 Correct answers with no working award full marks, (@) MI for their values correctly substituted Al Accept 0.2 as a special case of awrt 0.20 with 0 missing (©) Technical terms required in correct context in lines 1 to 3 e.g. ‘average’ and ‘spread’ BO 1 correct comment BIBOBO 2 correct comments BIB1B0 3 correct comments BIBIB1Question Scheme Marks Number 3 (a)| Median is 33 Bt a) (b) | Q, = 24,0, = 40,IQR =16 Bt Bt Bift GB) (c) | Q,-IQR=24-16=8 Mt So 7 is only outlier Ante (2) (¢) Box Bift Outlier | B1 Whisker | Bift H HiSedre 8) (accept either whisker) Total [9] rT) TBI for Q, =24and2™ BI for Q, =40 3" BLft for their IQR based on their lower and upper quartile. Calculation of range (40 — 7 = 33) is BOBOBO Answer only of IQR = 16 scores 3/3. For any other answer we must see working in (b) or on stem. and leaf diagram (©) |M1_—__ for evidence that Q,-IQR has been attempted, their “8” (>7) seen or clearly attempted is sufficient Alft must have seen their “8” and a suitable comment that only one person scored below this. (4) | 1 B1ft_ for a clear box shape and ft their Q,,Q, and Q, readable off the scale. Allow this mark for a box shape even if Q, = 40, Q, =7 and Q, =33 are used 2™'B1 for only one outlier appropriately marked at 7 3" Bit for either lower whisker. If they choose the whisker to their lower limit for outliers then follow through their “8”. (There should be no upper whisker unless theit Q, < 40, in which case there should be & whisker to 40) A typical error in (d) is to draw the lower whisker to 7, this can only score B1BOBO 7Question Scheme Marks Number @) | 60 BI 4 w (b) Bl BI BI QB) (© | mean =55.48.... or 222 awnt555 | BI [iasso9 (2497) MI 5 45) = 10.342... (¢= 10459.) anything which rounds to 10.3 (ors= 10.5) | AL QB) (@) | Mean < median < mode or Q2~ 01 > Qs ~ Q2 with or without their numbers or BL median closer to upper quartile (than lower quartile) or (mean-median)/sd <0; negative skew; Bldep Q) © | mean = (5: MI 45 Al sd= 10x09 Ml =9 Al ) Total 13, NOTES @ B1 60 only &) ‘Award each B1 for correct answer only in this order © M1 for use of correct formula, including square root. Correct answers with no working BIMIA1. @ BI any correct comparison of a pair of mean, median and mode using their values. B1 for ‘negative skew’ or allow (almost) symmetrical dependent upon correct reason. © M1 for (55 or 55.5 - 5)x0.9 AI for the correct answer only. M1 for (10 or 10.3 or 10.5) )x0.9 Al for the correct answer only.Question Rowben Scheme Marks 5. (a) [an 44 These answers may be in or near the BL b= 76 table BI Q) (b) | 55+1.5(55-31)=91 [and 31-1,5(55-31)=-5] Mi Penville BI BI Al 0 10 20 30 40 sO 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Years 4) (©)| Greenslax : [, -Q, = 20, Q, - Q, =12 oF (Q, -Q,) > (Q, -O,)] => ~ve(skew ) | BI Penville:. [0,-Q, =8, 0, -O, =16 or (O,-O,)>(O,-O,)]=> +ve (skew) | BI Don’t insist on seeing “skew” so just -ve and +ve will do, Treat “correlation” as ISW Justification that is consistent 4aB1 (3) Total 9 Notes A fully correct box plot scores 4/4. If not fully correet apply scheme and need evidence for ML IF wo box plots are seen ignore the one for Greenslax. If not on graph paper Mi max for (b) ©) | Mii for sight of 55+1.5(55~31) of 91 seen (possibly implied by RH whisker of box plot) May be implied by a fully correct box plot 1° BI box with whiskers (condone missing median) 2" BI 25,31, 39, 55, RH whisker to end at 75 or 91. Two RH whiskers is BO Accuracy must be to within 0.5 of a square so c.g. lower quartile at 30 or 32 is OK Al _ only one outlicr plotted at 99, Allow cross to be vertically displaced If the RH whisker goes to 99 (2™ BO) and AO even if outlier is identified since we require a horizontal “gap” between RH whisker and outlier (©) | 1" B1_ Greenslax — ve (skew) | We must be able to tell which is which but labels may be a implied by their values but not simply from Q,-Q, > Q,-9, 2"BI Penville + ve (skew). | tr there is just one, unlabelled comment assume Penville. 3" ddB1 dependent on I and 2" B marks being scored. Justification for both based on: quartiles, median relative to quartiles, or “tail” Ifonly values for Q,~Q, ete are given they should be correct ft for Greenslax and correct for Penville If values for Greenslax imply +ve skew then 1" BO and 3" BO 1920 6 (a) | Year 7 median BI Year 11 median = 54 BI @ (b) | [Lower quartil BL [Upper quartil BI @ (©) | Year7 Year 11 Qs -Q2 13)>Q2-Q: EN) Qs — Q2 (=5) < Q2- Qi (16) Mi Positive skew Negative skew ALAL @ (d) | Data is skewed BI Data is not continuous BI ) (9 marks) Notes @ Ti (@) at least one of the values should be assigned to a Year group sc If you see just “29” and “54” award SC BIBO 1°B1 for 29 seen (may be circled on diag.) 2"B1_ for $4 seen (b) | 1"B1 for22 and 2 B1 for 42. (these values may be circled on the diagram) (©)| M1 fora comparison for either year using quartiles only. For either “Qs — Qo > Q2— Qi and positive skew] Statements should be Or “Qs —Qz no outliers 63s an outlier Distribution is +ve skew; Qo - Qi (5)range of B a) ‘Total 15 2Question Scheme Marks Number a 1 @ i BL ) 2 a &) 54 BI a © + is an ‘outlier’ or ‘extreme value’ BI Any heavy musical instrument or a statement that the instrument is heavy BI @ @ BI so symmetrical or no skew Dependent — only award if B1 above BI @ © PW <54) =0.75 (or POW >54) =0.25 jor correctly labelled and shaded diagram MI 54-45 =0.67 MIBI o 0 =13.43. AL 4 ‘otal 10 marks Notes (@) Accept 50% or half or 0.5. Units not required. ) Correct answer only. Units not required. © ‘Anomaly’ only award BO Accept ‘85kg was heaviest instrument on the trip’ or equivalent for second B1 Examples of common acceptable instruments; double bass, cello, harp, piano, drums, tubal Examples of common unacceptable instruments: violin, viola, trombone, trumpet, french Horn, guitar @ “Quartiles equidistant from median’ or equivalent award B1 then symmetrical or no skew for BL Alternative: “Positive tail is longer than negative tail’ or ‘median closer to lowest value’ or equivalent so slight positive skew. BO for ‘evenly’ etc. instead of ‘symmetrical’ BO for ‘normal’ only © Please note that B mark appears first on ePEN First line might be missing so first M1 can be implied by second. Second MI for standardising with sigma and equating to z value NB Using 0.7734 should not be awarded second MI Anything which rounds to 0.67 for BL. Accept 0.675 if to 3sf obtained by interpolation Anything that rounds to 13.3 ~ 13.4 for Al 2B26 ‘Question Number Scheme Marks 4 @| Outliers 144 15«(4-7)=245 Mt 7 -15x(4-1)= -3.5 At Outlier 25 either upper limit acceptable on diagram Mt Y Att Bt ° 5 10 15 20 25 Sales in £7000 6) (©) | Since Qs— Q < Q2~Q,, Allow written explanation Bt negatively skew Bt @) (©) | not true B1 since the lower quartile is 7000 and therefore 75% above 7000 not 10000 ae or 10 is inside the box or any other sensible comment, @) {9] Notes (@) | A filly correct box-plot (cither version) with no supporting work scores 5/5. Otherwise read on 1" M1 for at least one correct calculation seen I" Al for 24.5 and —3.5 (or just negative noted) seen. May be read off the graph. If both values are seen but no calculation is given then M1A1.one value M1A0. 2 MI for a box with an upper and a lower whisker(s) with at least 2 correct values (condone no median marked) 2" Alft for 3,7, 12, 14 and 20 or 24.5 in appropriate places and readable off their scale If both upper whiskers are seen AO Apply ft for their whiskers being compatible with their outlier limits e.g. if their lower limit is + 3.5 then a lower whisker ending at 4 or 3.5 is OK B1 for only one outlier appropriately marked at 25 Apply + 0.5 square accuracy for diagram ©) [TBI for Q:—Q: < Q:— Qi statement or an equivalent statement in words Use of Q;— Qo < QoQ, does not require differences to be seen 2" dB1_ for “negative skew” dependent on suitable reason given above. “correlation” is BO “positive skew” with a supporting argument based on whiskers can score BIB1 e.g. “right hand whisker is longer than LH one so positive skew” Qs~Q, < Q:~ Qi followed by “positive skew” is BIBO (©)|1"B1 for rejecting the company’s claim 2" dB1_for an appropriate supporting reason. Dependent on rejecting company’s claim.Question ‘Scheme Marks Question Scheme Marks 5. @) | [pass for] 30 (labelled or 1* answer) BI oO (b) [merit for] 46 (labelled or 2" answer) Bl a) (©) | U5(Q,-@,)=15%16=24] so c=70 and d=6 BI,BI 2) (@) | 68,72,79 B2/1/0 2 (©) | 5 0, = ¥? = 262.05 -3* AWRT 9.88 MIAT (A) Q;-0,[=5.1]>Q,-@ [=39] or O<¥ Bare ) fe) | Se datais positively skew Use median and IQR, a y since data is skewed of not affected by extreme values or outliers if fy) (a) | MI For attempting both frequency densities (= 6)and =, and $x SF, where SF 1 ) NB Wrong class widths( 2 and 9) gives A= 3 h = $0r 055... and scores MIAO MI foridentifying correct interval and a correct fraction e.g. “2 | Condone 52.5 or 53 IAL. for 10.2 for median. Using (n + 1) allow awrt 10.3 NB: 2° A1 for a correct expression for either Q, or Q, (allow 26.25 and 78.75) ‘Must see 3" AL. for correct expressions for both Q, and Q, some (©) | 4% Ain for IQR, fe their quartiles. Using (n + 1) gives 6.28 and 15.45 method I®M1 for attempting }° fx and ¥ ® 2"'M1 for attempting > fx? and o,,V" is needed for M1. Allow s = awrt 9.93 I" Bift for suitable test, values need not be seen but statement must be compatible with values used. Follow through their values 2° 4B1 Dependent upon their test showing positive and for stating positive skew my If theic test shows negative skew they can score 1" B1 but lose the second 1"B1 for choosing median and IQR. Must mention both. }Award independently 2"B1 for suitable reason } e.g. “use median because data is skewed" scores BOB! since IQR is not mentionedQuestion Number. Scheme ‘Marks 5- (8) 1(em) BI cao (b) | 10 cm? represents 15 10/15 cm* represents 1 or Lem? represents 1.5 10 9 2 Therefore frequency of 9is [3x9 or Te Require x5 or +15 | ma height = 6(cm) M 3] Notes. If 3(a) and 3(b) incorrect, but their (a) x their (b)=6 then award BOM1AO 3(b) Alternative method: flew=15/6=2.5 represented by 5 so factor x2 award Ml So flew=9/3=3 represented by 3x2=6. Award Al 3Question Scheme Marks Number (@) | 23, 355 (may be in the tabley Bi BT 6 @) (b) | Width of 10 units is 4.cm so width of 5 units is 2em_ Bt Height = 2.6x4=10.4 em MI At (3) (©) | Vfe=13165> x 5 awrt 23.5, M1 At Die? = 37378.25 can be implied Bt Mt At = awrtl0T allow s= 108 6) (28-21) (4) (20.9) TAKS = 23.68. awrt 23.7 or 23.9 MUA 2) (©) | Q,-@,=56, Q,-Q,=79 (or ¥5.6s0] negative skew A Q) Total 14 (B) | MI for their width x their height=208. Without labels assume width first, height second and award marks accordingly. (C)| 18 M1 for reasonable attempt at > x and /56 2" MI fora method for cors, Vis required Typical errors > (£x)* = 354806.3 Mo, )’f*x = 13922.5 MO and (' fx)? = 1733172 Mo Correct answers only, award full marks. (9) | Use of }fx—3)? = awrt 6428.75 for BI Jeb can be 20, 20.5 or 21, width can be 4 or 5 and the fraction part ofthe formula correct for M1. - Allow 28.5 in fraction that gives awrt 23.9 for MIAI (c) | Mifor attempting a test for skewness using quartiles or mean and median. Provided median greater than 22.55 and less than 29.3 award for MI for Q, - Q, 35 mph is: 4.5x"20" or 112.5x"0.8" (or equivalent e.g. using fd) aM =90(cars) | Al) © 30X12.5-+240%25 +90X32.5+30%37.5+60%42.5 [_ 1297: MI 450 450 MI = 28.83... or a awrt288 | Al (3) 195 (© | [2.=] 20+FPx10 (x) [Allow use of (1+ 1) giving 195.5 instead of 195] | MI = 28.125. [Use of (n +1) gives 28.145...) awrt 28.1 [Al (2) (d) | O,<® [Condone Q, =X ] Blft So positive skew {so (almost) symmetric} | dBAft (2) (©) | [Ifchose skew in (d)] median (Q,) | [If chose symmetric in (d)]_ mean (¥) | B1 Since the data is skewed or Since it uses all the data dB1 (2) median not affected by extreme values (13) Notes (@) | MI forattempt to count squares (accept "22.5" in [22, 23] and “562.5” in (550, 575]) and use 450 to obtain a measure of scale. [If using fd must use 450 to obtain scale factor] I“ Al for a correct calc. for 20 or 0.8 or 1.25 ete [ May be fd = 4 to | large sq. or 0.8 to I small sq. May be on the diagram.] 2™ M1 dep on I" MI for correctly counting squares for > 35 mph and forming suitable expr’ 2™ AL for 90 with no incorrect working seen, eg FSxas0 scores MIAIMI and Al when = 90 is seen. Answer only is 4/4 (b) | IMI. for clear, sensible use of mid-points at least 3 of (12.5, 25, 32.5, 37.5, 42.5) seen 2™ MI for an expression for ¥ (at least 3 correct terms on num’ and a compatible denominator) Follow through their frequencies. You may see these fractions: “2425 (small squares), 425 (frequencies), $2 (large squares) AL for awrt 28.8 (answer only is 3/3) ‘ora fi js 15 (©) | MI__ fora full expression for median (using their frequencies). May see e.g. 25+ x5 ete Do nor accept boundaries of 19.5 or 20.5, these are MOAO Al for awrt 28.1 (answer only is 2/2) [For use of (n + 1) accept 28.15 but not 28.2] I" Blft for a correct statement about their Q, and ¥[Condone Q, =¥ only if |Q, <1] @ Do not accept an argument based on the shape of the graph alone. 2™ aBLit dependent on 1" B1 for a compatible description of skewness. F.. their values Quartiles | If Q, = 23.4 and Q, = 33.7 ~ 33.8 are seen allow comparison of quartiles for 1“ B1 in (d) (e) | 1" BI for a correct choice based on their skewness comment in (d). If no choice made in (d) only Q, [2™ gB1_for a suitable compatible commentQuestion Number Scheme Marks a 355 (may be in the table) Bret (2) (6) | Width of 10 units is 4 em so width of $ units is 2em BI Height ~ 2.6%4=10.4 em MI AI 8) =_ 1316. co Ye=116s 972 sans wana Ye? = 3737825 canbe implied | 81 Mt At allow s= 108 6) 28-21) (| 2 =205)+ 82) x5 2568 awrt 23. or Mt At il (2) (©) | Q,-0,=56, Q,-Q=19 (or ¥5.650] negative skew At @) Total 14 (©) | MI for their width x their height=20.8 Without labels assume width first, height second and award marks accordingly. (©) 1M forreasonable attempt at x and /56 2" M1 fora method for o ors, YT is required Typical errors)” (fx)? =354806.3 Mo, )'f?x=139225 MO and (fx)? =1733172 MO Correct answers only, awa full marks. (9) | Use of Six —X)? = awe 6428.75 for BI ib can be 20, 20.5 or 21, width can be 4 or Sand the fraction part ofthe formula correct for MI. - Allow 28.5 infraction that gives awrt 23.9 for MIAL (6) | Mifor attempting a test for skewness using quartiles or mean and median. Provided median greater than 22,55 and less than 29.3 award for MI for Q; ~Q, 0 Bift So positive (skew) «Bl (2) (e) i) | There is no effect on the mean BI (ii) | The median will increase Bl (iii) | The standard deviation will decrease Bl 3) [14] Notes (a) | MI__ for forming a relationship between area and no. of people or “their width” x “their height™= 7.5 Al forheight of 3 (em) NOTE: the common incorrect answer width = 3 and height = 2.5 scores BDM1A0 (b) | M1 fora correct fraction[ $ or $$ ]x3. Ignore end point but must be +. (x=25) _ 25-16 May be s ent express lay be seen in an equivalent expression e.g, @—25) - 29-16 Allow use of (7 + 1) giving 4.875 NB May work down so look out for [5.5]- 2x3, ete. (O@) | BL for Bor for fully correct expression seen {SALIBA RA HOSS H BAIS 40305 (ii) | M1 fora correct expression must have 6500, 50 and 7.88. (square root not necessary for M1) IAL fora correct expression which must have square root 2™ Al. for awrt 8.24 (use of s= awrt 8.32). Condone incorrect labelling if awrt 8.24 is found. (a) | 1" BIft fora correct comparison of ¥=7.88 and their Q, (this may be seen embedded in another formula i.e. 3(mean-median)/s.d.) @; -O, > Q, -Q, is BO unless Q, and Q, have been found. (Q, = 1.95/1.99 ,Q, =10.25/10.81) 2" ABI Dependent on the 1“ BI and for concluding “positive” skew. Note: if their Q, >7.88, then BO. Positive correlation is BO.Question Number Scheme Marks 13- (a) | 25 small sq =5 tomatoes or I large square = 5 tomatoes or fa=5for 2-3 | MI or 2x20 or 5x08 or 2x2 25 =4 AL @ ©) 100-(5+'4!) of 16+324+25+10+8, so probability = = (condone 91%) | M4, AL @ (7=6.25)x16+25+10+8 (@)+54164(6.25-5)x16 _ 55 MI, AL (e) | ESPACE OSE og GEO OBO, a 100 100 100 ) (d) | Since 0.55" > 0.5 (or equivalent reason) and state. median > 6.25 BI da) (e) | Median > mean, so negative skew BI da) © - . 24 M1, AL Freq. for (5.5 < weight < 7) =(7~5.5)x'16' or 3x'32', probability => P (both weigh between 5.5 and 7) = 2423 46 (oe) or awrt 0.056 | M1 AL 100° 99 825 ey [2 marks] Notes (a) (b) ©) (d) e) (6) ‘A correct answer with no working scores M1A1 in parts (a)~(c) ML for a correct: statement linking area with frequency or calculation or at least 2 values ‘on the fd scale on axis or at least 2 frequencies on/in histogram bars. Al for an answer of 4 (if not in script, can be awarded if 4 seen correctly on histogram). If answers on both diagram and script contradict, the script has preference. ML for 100~ (5 + ‘(a)’) ft 0 < ‘their (a)’ < 10 or fora correct method for finding the sum of the areas of all the bars above 3 (condone one slip if 5 terms seen) MI. fully correct expression (possibly ft their (a)) and need division by 100 (o.e.) Al for 2 or 0.55 (o..) [Allow 55% or ratio 55:100] BI for Q2 > 6.25 with reason based on (c) where 0.5 < ‘their (c)' <1 [comparison of “55” & 50] B1_ for stating “median > mean” and jegative skew” (independent of (d)) I M1 for method to find the frequency between 5.5 and 7 (Implied by the 24 used) e.g. (4454+16+16x2)—(44+5416-+16x0.5) = 57-33 based on (<7)-(<5.5) “ 24 IXAl for — Ge. io 2 M1 for = — {ft their 24 but must have numerator < denominator of 10099 2 AL for 22 (oc, or awrt 0.056 NB 24x24 scores MIATMOAO [0.0576 alone 0/4] 825 100100 39ENG. SANDRA SABRY6 PROBABILITY P(A’) =1— P(A)- Glasses. NoGlasses._—_ Totals Science 18 R 30 Arts 27 2B 50 50 may be seen in (a) Humanities 44 4 68 23 may be seen in (b) | BL Bl Totals 89 59 148 () a number/148 | MI Al a) ; prob number P(No glass eee (b) ee their(ayprob their so |MIAL 2) 30 50 68 P(Right Handed) = (—— x0.8) +(7— 0.7) +("— 0.75 attempt add three prob | M1 A1 V (c) (Rig! Ga ) Gas y} Ge ) pt pr ALY on their (a) awrt 0.743 At @) ° Yon their) | MI A1V AI GB) 42a) © 2 Blue 12 3 ul 9 in 3 = Red 12 2 1 P(Second ball is ed P(Both are red |Second ball is re Blue Red Blue Red Tree 12°12 Complete & labels ‘exact or awet 0.182 M1 M At (3) MAL (2) MIA 1 (2) Total 7 marks as(a) é A B Venn Diagram 0320.11 &AB 038 0.22,0.35 & box (b) P(A) =0.32+0.22 =0.54; P(B) =0.33 BY) 3: Cl Pca} =PACB) _ 32 wrt 0.478 PB) 67 @ For independence P(A 7B) = P(A)P(B) For these data 0.22 + 0.54%0.33 = 0.1782 (OR PC A|B') + P(A) for MIAIROR 27% lB) # P(A)=0.54 for MAAR) -*. NOT independent - Mi AL AL (3) MIATA TT 3) MAT (2) MAAlft Alf (3) Total 11 marks 43(a) (b) ©) @ © és) D 41 3 closed curves that intersect Subtract at either stage 975 106,12 41 & box 10 PGIR,D)-** 100 9 P(Only two attributes}= 22245 — 21 100 100 jo P(G|LH&DH) = PERE E DW _ 100 10 2 asyre 0.667 P(LH & DH) 100 N.B. Assumption of independence MO ML MI Al Al Al (6) Bis @ By a IMLAIS 2) MIAISAL QB) ‘Total 13 44Question Scheme Marks number 5-@) 00; D (0.0105) Correct tree shape MI ‘ D A, Band C and 0.35 and 0.25] At 0.06 | D (0015) B < D (x3) and 0.03,0.06,0.05 | Al (3) D (May be implied by seeing 0.05 D (0.02) P(AMD) etc at the ends) c a we 5 (ox)| PAN D)= : 105 or ML.AL == “2000 P(C) = 044 (anywhere)| BL Gi)] PD) = (i) + 0.25x 0.06 + (0.4x0.05) MI 0.0455 or Al (6) ©} Pe} eo ae MI, ALft = 0.4395 0.44 or awrt 0.440 | Al @) [Correct answers only score full marks in each part] 11 marks (a)| M1 for tree diagram, 3 branches and then two from each. At least one probability attempted. (b)| 1 M1 for 0.35x0.03. Allow for equivalent from their tree diagram, B1 for P(C) =0.4, can be in correct place on tree diagram or implied by 0.4x0.05 in P(D). 2" M1 for all 3 cases attempted and some correct probabilities seen, including +. Can ft their tree. Condone poor use of notation if correct calculations seen. E.g. P(C | D) for P(C AD) (©) | M1 for attempting correct ratio of probabilities. There must be an attempt to substitute some values in a correct formula, If no correct formula and ration not correct ft score MO. Writing P(DIC) and attempting to find this is MO. Writing P(DIC) but calculating correct ratio — ignore notation and mark ratios. Alft must have their 0.4 x0.05 divided by their (ii). If ratio is incorrect ft (0/3) unless correct formula seen and part of ratio is correct then M1 45PQUT) =06 BI @ PQ)+PT)-P@AT) 06 MI PQ@AT) =01 AL @ © Q T Venn MI 0.4 0.15, 0.35 all 0.4 and bo: BI @ O15 1 ) PONT'|QLT)=——=== 010.25 or 25% MiaijAi © AT /QLD) =F “4 J @) Irotal 9 marks Notes: 4(a) Bl for 0.6 M1 for use of P(Q)+P(T)- P@AT)=P(QUT) 0.1 Correct answer only for Al Alternative: (2544544 110-100=10% MIAL 0.1 stated clearly as the final answer with no Working gets 3/3, ©) Two intersecting closed curves for MI, no box required. At least one label (Q or 7) required for first Al Follow through (0.25-‘their 0.1°) and (0.4S-'their 0.1") for Al. 0.4 and box required, correct answer only for B1 Using %, whole numbers in Venn diagram without % sign, whole numbers in correct rato all OK © Require fraction with denominator 0.6 or their equivalent from Venn diagram for M1 Follow through their values in fraction for Al Final Al is correct answer only. No working no marks. 46[Diagram may be drawn with B (AUC) or with the 0 for B-4(AUC)' simply left bland b @ Accept decimals or probs: Bee | MI inven 90,3.2,1] AL diagram 1,0).2 | M1AL 1 outside] AL Box | BI o 1 ) ‘none)=0.01 part a © P(A but not B)=0.04 Mi Ate ro) @ Plany wine but © Maat ® © exactly 1wo)=0.06 Miaitt 2 o P(C|4)= PCOA)_ 99 4 3 AWRT 0.969 MIAIf,A1 PA) 96 32 2) [Total 16 marks @ TMi Tor’ closed, labelled curves that overlap. Al for the 90,3,2 and 1 2" M1 forone of 1,0 or 2 correct or a correct sum of 4 values for A, B or C b™A1 forall 7 values correct. Accept a blank instead of 0 NB final mark is a BI for the box not an A mark as on EPEN In parts (b) to (f) full marks can be scored for correct answers or correct ft i) piste Follow through their ‘I'from outside divided by 100 ForM © Imi for correct expression eg P(AU B)~P(B) or calculation e.g.3 +1 or4on top | | marks in lA for a correct probability, follow through with their “3+1' from diagram gee @ [Mi for correct expression of calculation e.g. 1+240 oF 99-96 or 3 on top meat la for a correct probability, follow through their *2+14+0" from diagram havea © IMI for a correct expression or calculation e.g, 34241 of 6 on top fraction o Mi for a correct expression upto “,” and some correct substitution, ft their values. One of these probabilities must be correct ar correct ft. If P(C) on bottom MO Alf’ follow through their AMC and their A but the ratio must be in (0, 1) 2°" A1 for correct answer only. Answer only scores 3/3, but check working P(ATC_VIKC) is MO 47Question Scheme Marks Number & ® Positive Test 09s Disease on 005) Negative Test Positive Test 003 (0:98) No Disease os Negative Test Tree without probabilities or labels | M1 0.02(Disease), 0.95(Positive) on correct branches | Al 0.03(Positive) on correct branch.| AL 13] ) P@ositive Test) =0.02x0.95+0.98x0.03 MIAIft = 0.0484 AL BI © 0.98x0.03 P(Do not have disease|Postive test), =~" . | ) Dasa MI = 0.607438. awrt 0.607 | AL 2) @ Test not very useful OR High probability of not having the disease for a person with a positive test BI ul Total 9 Notes (@) ML:AII 6 brane Bracketed probabilities not required. (b) M1 for sum of two products, at least one correct from their diagram AL ft follows from the probabilities on their tree 121 2500 (©) M1 for conditional probability with numerator following from their tree and denominator their answer to part (b). Al for correct answer only or AL also for 442 43Question Scheme Marks Number 9. @ 4 2 3 closed intersecting curves | M1 with labels 100 100,30 | AL 12,103.25 | at Box | BI [4] 2 c b 425 _ 235 « P(Substance Cy = 100+1O0H1O+ 25 _ 235 _ 47 et equiva 300 300 60 © 10 10 P(AIL3 [A)=———" =" or exact equivalent ( |4) Sov ar1o coo 7 yaa OF eHet equivalent MIAIf 2) (a) , 21 ; P(Universal donor) = > = or exact equivalent MIA1 cao (2) Total 10 Notes: (a) 20 not required. Fractions and exact equivalent decimals or percentages. (b) M1 For adding their positive values in C and finding a probability Allft for correct answer or answer from their working (©) MI their 10 divided by their sum of values in A A\ft for correct answer or answer from their working () MI for ‘their 20” divided by 300 Al correct answer only 4950 Question Number Scheme Marks 10- Exstoke regular exercise B= always eat breakfast. (a) | PEER B) = (EIB) xP(B) Mt 024 or © o MQ) 25 75 Jor PUE'IB') | or P(B'OE)| or PLBOE') mt _B _2 32 At 25 B 78 MIAt (4) P(E'AB')=1-P(EUB) =~ or 0.173 (c) Mt (| pelay=0.36%040= P(E) or PENI) = Sade P(E)xP(B) AQ) So E and B are not statistically independent oo ‘not ly PS [8] (a) | Mi or P(EIB) x P(B) and at least one correct value seen. Al for 0.24 or exact equiv. NB 2) 4 alone or 2x-X alone scores MOAO. Correct answer scores full marks. (0) | MI for use of the addition rule. Must have 3 terms and some values, can ft their (a) Ora full method for P(E'IB’) requires | - P(EIB") and equation for P(EIB’): (a) +4 Or a full method for P(B’ AE) or P(BOE") [or other valid method] 2™M1 for a method leading to answer e.g. 1- P(E UB) or P(B') x P(E" B') or P(B')—P(B' B) or P(E") -P(BOE") Venn Diagram 1" M1 for diagram with attempt at 2 —P(BM E) or 4 ~P(BM E) Can fh their (a) IAL fora correct first probability as listed or 32, 18 and 12 on Venn Diagram 2 MI for attempting 75 - their (18 +32 + 12) () MI _ for identifying suitable values to test for independence e.g. P(E) = 0.40 and P(EIB) = 0.36 Or P(E)xP(B) =... and P(E 7 B) =their (a) [but their (a) # 2x2]. Values seen somewhere Al for correct values and a correct comment Diagrams You may see these or find these useful for identifying probabilities ‘Common Errors (@ & isMoAo Jet = |M : b-b <8, 4 & " (b) PCEUB)= & scores MIAO WSs! Se 1-P(EU B) = scores MIAO ia ef E (b) P(B')x P(E’) scores 0/4Correct path through their tree given in their probabilities award Ms 2(a) All branches required for first B1. Labels can be words rather than symbols for second B1, Probabilities from question enough for third BI ie. bracketed probabilities not required. Probabilities and labels swapped ice. labels on branches and probabilities at end can be awarded the marks if correct. 2(b)(i) Correct answer only award both marks. 2(b)(ii) At least one correct path identified and attempt at adding all three multiplied pairs award M1 2(c) Require probability on numerator and division by probability for M1 Require numerator correct for their tree for M1. Correct formula seen and used, accept denominator as attempt and award M1 No formula, denominator must be correct for their tree or 1-(ii) for M1 Question Number ‘Marks 11. (a) Correct tree Bt All labels 81 Probabilities on correct, branches BI 6) 2x4 = 1 orequivatent (ox) | 370 ~ 30 84 Mt At @) (i) | CNL+ BNL + FNL = mt ial AL @) , P(F'OL) PCF’) Ly =—— (9) P= Say Mt numerator Al denominator | AIR or equivalent cao | At (4) (11) Notes] Exact decimal equivalents required throughout if fractions not used e.g. 2(b)(i) 0.03 1/30 on numerator only is MO, P(L/F") is MO. 51Question Number Scheme Marks 12- (@) (i) | P(A UB)=a4 b cao | B1 (ii) | P(A U B)=a+ b-ab or equivalent Bt 2 (2) (b) | P(RUQ) =0.15 + 0.35 =05 0.5 | 81 (1) (©) | PRAQ) =PLRIQ) x PO) =0.1x 0.35 mt = 0.035 0.035 | At (2) (4) | P(RUQ)=P(R) + PO)—P(RAQ) OR P(R)=P(RMO') +P(RAQ) mt = 0.15+their (c) 0.5 =P(R) +0.35 -0.035 = 0.15 +0.035 P(R) = 0.185 = 0.185 0.185 | At Q) [7] Notes 7(a) (@) Accept a + b-0 for BI Special Case If answers to (i) and (ii) are (i) P(A)+P(B) and (ii) P(A)+P(B)-P(A)P(B) award BOB1 7(a){i) and (ji) answers must be clearly labelled or in correct order for marks to be awarded. 52Question Scheme Marks Number 13 (a) 1 Red 5 Blue Red Z I> Green . Mt 1 2 Red A Blue A —_ Green @) 2 3 Red + Green =< ~~ Blue (b) ( P@Blue bead and a green bead) =(4x1)4{1.1)-! (or any exact Mra 473) a3) 6 equivalent) @ Total [5] (Q (@ [MI forshape and labels: 3 branches followed by 3,2,2 with some R, B and G seen Allow 3 branches followed by 3, 3, 3 if O probabilities are seen implying that 3, 2, 2 intended Allow blank branches if the other probabilities imply probability on blanks is zero Ignore further sets of branches 1" Al for correct probabilities and correct labels on 1* set of branches. 2" Al for correct probabilities and correct labels on 2™ set of branches. (accept 0.33, 0.67 ete or better here) (b) |M1_ for identifying the 2 cases BG and GB and adding 2 products of probabilities. (11) These cases may be identified by their probabilities e.g. Gs + ) NB (or exact equivalent) with no working scores 2/2 Special 1 ‘Case | With Replacement (This oversimplifies so do not apply Mis-Read: max mark 2/5) (a) BI for 3 branches followed by 3, 3, 3 with correct labels and probabilities of on each. (b) M1 for identifying 2, possibly correct cases and adding 2 products of probabilities but AO for wrong answer ( (25L}o(Le2)] ithe sate rata ner bar 2. woul sore MO 44) \4-4) 42 53Question Scheme Marks Number 14 (a) s D 3 closed curves and 4 in centre | M4 Evidence of subtraction | jt 3136.24 | At 417,11 | At OW Labels on loops, 16 and box | B1 1s ” 6) (b) r 16 (None of the 3 options)=—— Birt 180 (1) (9) | pesetworking onlyj= 2 Birt 780 (1) (a) ft P(AIL3 options/technic Mt At @) Total [9] (@) [2 MI There may be evidence of subtraction in “outer” portions, so with 4 in the centre then 35, 40 28 (instead of 31,36,24) along with 33, 9, 3 can score this mark but AOAO N.B. This is a common error and their “16” becomes 28 but still scores BO in part (a) (b) | Blft for 4 or any exact equivalent. Can ft their “16” from their box. If there is no value for their “16” in the box only allow this mark if they have shown some working. (c) | Bift ft their“17". Accept any exact equivalent (d) If a probability greater than 1 is found in part (d) score MOAO ~P(SADAN) MI for clear sight of and an attempt at one of the probabilities, ft their values. P(SAN) Allow P(all 31S AN * ord to scote MIAO. 36«9 Allow a correct ft from their diagram to score MIAO e.g. in 33,3,9 case in (a): or fis MIAO A ratio of probabilities with a product of probabilities on top is MO, even with a correct formula, 41 Al for — or — or an exact equivalent 40 10 41 7 fs Allow 75 oF 75 t© score both marks if this follows from their diagram, otherwise some explanation (method) is required.