Italy’s collapsing birth rate rings demographic alarm bells | Financial ... https://www.ft.

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At 36 years old, Valeria Morando, an unemployed former public sector worker

from Rome, is an increasingly rare phenomenon in Italian demographic statistics
— a mother who has had more than one child.

Ms Morando was working on a temporary contract for Italy’s unemployment office

when she became pregnant with her second child two years ago. When she gave
birth she was told her contract was not going to be renewed. Her family now
survive on her husband’s salary. The demands of childcare and Italy’s stagnant
domestic economy mean Ms Morando has struggled to find new work.

“In an economy like this it is a risk to have children, and many couples don’t want
to take that risk,” she said. “Precariousness is the biggest reason why my friends
are not having children. Everyone knows the economic situation of the country is
bad.”

Italy’s fertility rate has collapsed to a level of 1.32 children per woman,
significantly below the 2.1 defined as the level a country needs to maintain its
population. This is down from an average of 2.5 children in the 1920s and two
children for women born just after the second world war. While this reflects a
trend seen across the developed world, demographers view Italy’s situation as
particularly acute given its vast public debt and pensions burden.

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The result of this collapse in births means the Italian working population is
shrinking at a rapid pace. Last year Italy recorded the lowest number of births
since the country was unified in 1861, according to the country’s national statistics
office. With only 440,000 children born, less than half the number of Italians that
died, the population is both steadily ageing and shrinking. Almost 23 per cent of
Italians are now aged over 65.

The problem is compounded by rising emigration. An increasing number of mainly

young people want to escape the country’s economic problems, with 160,000
leaving Italy last year, the highest level since the early 1980s.

While recent alarming statistics have

stoked public debate in Italy about what
can be done to avert a demographic
catastrophe caused by retirees
outnumbering workers by around 2050,
experts argue that these trends have their
roots in the early 1990s.

“In Italy we often talk . . . about a

demographic emergency, but in fact we have had a huge demographic crisis
occurring for the last 20 years,” said Marco Valerio Lo Prete, a co-author of a book
on Italian demographics.

Indeed Joseph Chamie, a former director of the UN’s population division, has
pointed out that it was 1995 when a critical crossover occurred in Italy, with that
year being the first in which the number of Italians under the age of 15 were

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Valerio Lo Prete believes that the driving factor behind the country’s low birth rate
is not simply a slow economy and high youth unemployment, but instead a general
sense among young Italians that their economic future is bleak and unstable.

“People on the streets are not economists, they are not studying debt to GDP
numbers, but they can sense that Italy’s large public debt means there will be less
money in the future,” he said. “Correlation is not causation, but it is interesting
that both Japan and Italy have very high public debts and very low birth rates.”

The idea that migration could plug the demographic gap, however, has become
deeply politicised at a time when national support for Matteo Salvini, leader of the
anti-migrant League party, has surged. Tito Boeri, the former head of Italy’s
pension agency, came under heavy fire from rightwing politicians for suggesting
that more migrant workers were needed to pay for the growing number of Italian
retirees.

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,

“We need to be more like the north of Europe, where mothers get assistance from
the state for childcare and other things,” she said. “I don’t want to have to choose
between being a mother or a worker, I should be able to have both things. If in 10
years the birth rate is still falling like this, it is going to kill the country.”

Falling birth rates are surely a reason to rejoice / From Dr Geoffrey Allen,
London, UK

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