Samudera Logistics Brief

July 2023 – Vol. 017

Executive Summary Samudera Indonesia

Research Initiatives (SIRI)
1. Blue Economy is the utilization of marine and coastal resources to achieve
Address: Samudera Indonesia
sustainable economic growth and in line with efforts to preserve the environment. Building 7th floor Jl. Letjen S.
Bappenas compiled the Indonesia Blue Economy Roadmap for 2023-2045 which Parman Kav. 35, Jakarta 11480,
Indonesia
generally contains 4 main strategies and 5 phases of Indonesia's blue economy
development with a target of a Blue Economy contribution of 12.45% of Indonesia's Telp: +6221 5480088
GDP in 2045. There are 7 main priority sectors namely capture fisheries & Email: research@samudera.id
Instagram: samudera.research
aquaculture, marine manufacturing industry, marine transportation & logistics,
coastal tourism, marine education & research, new renewable energy, and Ebi Junaidi
biotechnology & bio-economy, although the government has yet to determine the ebi.junaidi@samudera.id

contribution portion of each sector going forward. Regarding the marine Keliek Pudjiasmoro
keliek.pudjiasmoro@samudera.id
transportation & logistics sector, the main developments in the blue economy policy
Rifka Hidayat
will be focused on green logistics & green ports, cold supply chains, and the use of rifka.hidayat@samudera.id
renewable energy for maritime purposes. SIRI recommends the government to Adithya Prabowo
adithya.prabowo@samudera.id
further study the setting of annual contribution & growth targets from the 7 blue
economy priority sectors. In addition, the government needs to adjust the green Muhamad Pudjianto
muhamad.pudjianto@samudera.id
logistics implementation timeline (phase 2: 2025-2029) to be in line with incentive Muhammad Alif Ramahurmuzi
regulations (phase 3: 2030-2034) to make it more effective. muhammad.ramahurmuzi@samudera.id

2. In June 2023, global economic growth were marked by an increase in China's Pradynda Rahnia Said
Pradynda.said@samudera.id
economic growth due to increased industrial production and investment. In
Ghaitsa Qotrunnada Wisfah
addition, US & EU inflation continues to subside, although it is still far from the 2%
target amid continued contractionary monetary policy. On the other hand, the Khaeria Mardhatillah

global Manufacturing PMI index, as well as global output of goods and services
Economic Indicators July’23:
decreased.
Foreign Investment Q2 ’23:
3. Domestic economic activity in June 2023 was still brilliant as reflected in the
USD 12,331 Million
manufacturing PMI which continued to show expansionary movements amid public QoQ: +5.90%| YoY: +8.45%
optimism in consuming. This is also supported by the surplus in the State Budget even
Domestic Investment Q2 ’23:
though exports & imports have decreased. Meanwhile, inflation was getting under IDR 163,500 Billion
control at 3.6%, so that Bank Indonesia again maintained the BI 7DRR at the level of QoQ: +7.64% | YoY: +17.61%
5.75%. World PMI: 48.80 Point
4. In June 2023, freight rate for container, dry bulk and wet bulk transportation will MoM: -1,61%| YoY: -2.79%

decrease amidst the decline in world oil prices. On the other hand, global container ASEAN PMI: 51.00 Point
MoM: -0.20% | YoY: +1.59%
shipping volumes and wet bulk processed freight rates increased by 9% (MoM) and
Indonesia PMI: 52.50 Point
6.9% (MoM).
MoM: +4.37% | YoY: +4.58%
5. The price of marine fuel as reflected by the Singapore VLSFO Bunker Price in July
Indonesia CPI: 114.84 Point
2023 was recorded at USD 505/MT. The price decreased from the previous month
MoM: +0.09% | YoY: +4.00%
and ended the upward trend since December. Looking at history, the price in July
Export (Value):
has decreased by 46% from the peak fuel price in June 2022 which was USD
USD 20.605 Million
1,099/MT. MoM: -5.07% | YoY: -21.03%
Import (Value):
The Maritime Industry and Logistics in Indonesia Blue Economy USD 17,150 Million
Roadmap MoM: -19.40% | YoY: -18.35%

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 Samudera Logistics Brief
July 2023 – Vol. 017

The World’s View on Blue Economy Export Volume Jun’23:

54,153 Thousand Ton
The World Bank (2017) defines blue economy potential. The World Bank in MoM: -5.46% | YoY: +2.95%
economy as the sustainable use of 2019 estimated that Indonesia’s Import Volume Jun‘23:
marine resources for economic growth, potentials may reach USD 280 billion per 14,682 Thousand Ton
improved livelihoods, and employment, year. Unfortunately, the Indonesian MoM: -21.78% | YoY: +24.92%

as well as the health of marine Ministry of Maritime & Investment (2023)

ecosystems. Wen Hai (2019) also sees the noted that the contribution to Gross
Industrial Indicators July’23:
blue economy in the form of production Domestic Product from the blue
of goods and services and other activities economy sector in 2022 was only USD 79 LSCI Indonesia Q2 ’23:
38.41 Point
that utilize and preserve marine and billion (6% of Indonesia’s GDP 2022). One Commented [ej1]: Can you put the equivalent percentage of
QoQ:this?
-32.61%| YoY: +12,31%
coastal resources. In fact, the blue of the inhibiting factors is that 83% of blue
Container Freight Rate Index:
economy is in line with the Sustainable economy activities are still carried out USD 1,713 FEUs
Development Goals (SDGs) of the United conventionally, there is still illegal fishing, MoM: +25.77% | YoY: -71.51%

Nations (2015) number 14, namely and uneven national understanding Coal Freight Rate Index:
USD 12/Ton
conserve and sustainably use the oceans, regarding the sustainable use of the MoM: -6,45% | YoY: -24.82%
sea and marine resources for sustainable maritime economy. Dirty Tanker Rate Index:
development. USD 59/Mt
In line with that, the National MoM: -30.59% | YoY: -28.92%
The potential of the blue economy of all Development Planning Agency (2023)
Clean Tanker Rate Index:
countries is estimated by the World Bank prepared the Indonesia Blue Economy USD 154/Mt
(2018) to reach USD 6 trillion per year or Roadmap 2023-2045 which includes a MoM: +6.94% | YoY: -53.75%
equivalent to 7% of the world's gross comprehensive plan for the utilization of Container Charter Rate Index:
domestic product in the same year. Indonesia's marine economic potential. 1,483 Point
MoM: -11.73% | YoY: -54.75 %
Unfortunately, UNDP (2022) assesses that The plan is a refinement of the Blue
Baltic Dry Index:
the output of the blue economy in 2022 is Economy Development Framework
977 Point
estimated to be only USD 2.5 trillion or (BEDF) of Indonesia from the OECD (2021).
MoM: -10.69% | YoY: -53.87%
equivalent to 2.4% of the world's gross The blue economy will be developed to
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index:
domestic product in 2022. The lack of benefit from the point of view of 947 Point
optimal use of the blue economy has economic benefits, environmental MoM: +17.51% | YoY: -36.06%
encouraged several international benefits, and social benefits in line with Baltic Clean Tanker Index:
institutions and several countries to sustainable development goals. 602 Point
compile a road map for the future MoM: +3.08% | YoY: -54.43%
7 Priority Sectors in the Indonesia Blue Container Vessel Price Index:
development of the blue economy. The
Economy Roadmap 9,176 Point
European Union Commission (2022) is a
MoM: -0.33% | YoY: -54.45%
pioneer in the preparation of a blue The National Development Planning
Dry Bulk Vessel Price Index:
economy strategy in 2012 and updated in Agency (2023) has determined 7 priority 295 Point
2021, followed by China (2019), while sectors of Indonesia's blue economy that MoM: -5.45% | YoY: -15.23%
ASEAN countries including Indonesia, do have great potential. These sectors Tanker Vessel Price Index:
Vietnam, and the Philippines have only are capturing fisheries & aquaculture, 492 Point
been drafting their very own version in marine manufacturing industry, marine MoM: -0.81% | YoY: +29.82%

2021. logistics & transportation, marine coastal Singapore VLSFO Bunker Price:
tourists, marine education & research, USD 505/Mt
Indonesia as the largest archipelagic new renewable energy, and MoM: -12.17% | YoY: -47.83%

country in the world has enormous blue biotechnology & bioeconomy. In

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general, the OECD (2021) assesses that
the capture fisheries & aquaculture sector
contributes 62% of the total GDP of the
blue economy, while the logistics &
marine transportation sector contributes
10%, and other sectors contribute the
remaining 28%.
Figure 1. Indonesia Blue Economy Roadmap 2023-2045
Source: National Development Planning Agency (2023), processed by SIRI
Indonesia's blue economy general roadmap is
elaborated by Bappenas & OECD (2023) into 4 main
strategies and 5 development phases. The strategies are
1) increasing sustainable ocean productivity along with
climate change mitigation, 2) accelerating sustainable
blue economy growth in traditional and emerging
sectors, 3) creating equity & welfare, and 4) strengthening
supporting ecosystems including government, funding,
and blue economy infrastructure. Regarding the
development phase, phase (1) of 2023-2024 is mainly
used for consolidation between institutions for the
development of the blue economy ecosystem, phase (2)
is directed to develop various priority sectors of the blue
economy to be able to become new sources of growth,
as well as other phases as shown in figure (1).
Regarding the marine transportation sector, Bappenas
(2023) also provides a development commitment in
relation to the use of sustainable blue economy. In phase
1, the government will encourage promotion and
harmonization related to plans to expand green
transportation to reduce emissions and increase the
capacity & capability of ships & fishermen for the blue
economy. Entering phase 2, the programs and strategies
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that will be intensified are investments for frozen logistics
supply chains and green ports, while phase 3 will have
incentives for logistics players who participate in the blue
economy. Furthermore, in phase 4, logistics and maritime
transportation are directed to be able to modernize and
integrate multimodal so that the volume capacity of
loading and unloading increases. Finally, in phase 5, the
maritime logistics sector is expected to use massive use of
new renewable energy so that Indonesia's emissions meet
the net zero emission target.
Unfortunately, there are still several major challenges and
weaknesses in the development of the blue economy in
the marine transportation sector. The main challenge is
the high cost of adopting green transportation in the
maritime sector as stated in the IMO (2021). On the other
hand, a weakness that needs to be considered together
in the transportation sector is the high logistics costs of
Indonesia. The Ministry of Maritime and Investment (2023)
recorded that Indonesia’s logistic cost may reach high a
16.5% of GDP. However, Indonesia also has great strength
and opportunities in the development of sea
transportation in the future (table 1).
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Strength Weakness
• Strategic geographical, have 2154 port or 1 port every 40 km • Infrastructure &
coastline and huge population market to grow. transportation have high
• Largest ocean potential product in the world (fish, shrimp, salt, logistic cost.
seaweed) • unavailability of marine
employment skill demand
data
Opportunity Threats
• 65% raw material in
• Utilizing two major global shipping routes (asia & europe) and 3 ALKI shipping industry are
equivalently equal to around 40% of global volume. imported.
• Indonesia has highest arrival of global container ships between 25 top • High-cost implementation
economies of green logistic & port

Table 1. SWOT analysis of the marine transportation sector in the Blue Economy
Source: Bappenas (2023), processed by SIRI
Conclusions and Recommendations

Talking about big targets, Bappenas (2023) noted that in Based on the discussion of SIRI above, there are several
2045 the Indonesia Blue Economy Roadmap has 3 big conclusions related to the Indonesia Blue Economy
targets. The target of economic benefits is to increase the Roadmap 2023-2045:
GDP contribution of the marine sector from the original
3.6% in 2022 to 12.45% of GDP in 2045. In terms of the 1. Blue Economy is the use of marine and coastal marine
environment, Marine Protected Areas (MPA) are targeted resources to achieve sustainable economic growth
to increase from 10% to 30%, and the use of new and go hand in hand with the efforts to preserve the
renewable energy is increasingly massive and optimal. environment. The potential of the blue economy is
estimated to reach USD 6 trillion in the coverage of all
From the social side, the benefits that will be achieved by
countries. Meanwhile, Indonesia is expected to
the blue economy are to provide additional jobs, reduce
potentially gain USD 280 billion per year in 2015, but the
poverty and welfare inequality, as well as to increase the
realization per 2022 has not reached even 50% of the
per capita income of the marine sector from USD 3,000 to 2015 potential.
USD 60,000. 2. Bappenas prepared the Indonesia Blue Economy
Roadmap for 2023-2045 which generally contains a
In order to monitor the development of Indonesia’s blue
series of strategies and steps for the development of
economy performance, the government compiled the
Indonesia's blue economy. The plan is divided into 5
Indonesia Blue Economy Index (IBEI). ARISE+(2023)
phases and 4 main strategies that have a main focus
calculates the index based on selected macro indicators
on 7 priority sectors of Indonesia’s blue economy,
representing economic, social, and environmental
namely capture fisheries & aquaculture, marine
benefits. Economic benefits are generally represented by
manufacturing industry, marine transportation &
the percentage contribution to GDP from each of the 7
logistics, marine coastal tourists, marine education &
priority sectors. Social benefits are generally measured by
research, new renewable energy, and biotechnology
per capita income and protein consumption of blue
& bioeconomy. The government's target to achieve a
economy human resources. Meanwhile, environmental
blue economy GDP contribution of 12.45% has not
benefits are seen from the percentage MPA from marine
been complemented by the contribution of each
areas and the percentage use and supply of new
priority sector and its estimated annual growth.
renewable energy to the overall national energy. In 2022,
However, there is an Indonesia Blue Economy Index
Indonesia's IBEI score is at 40.4 out of 100 and in 2045 the
(IBEI) to monitor the progress of national & regional
government targets Indonesia's national score to be
blue economy implementation regularly.
above 80. For additional information, the province with
3. The marine transportation & logistics sector has the
the highest IBEI score in 2022 is East Java with a score of
potential to develop with the blue economy policy.
87.3 and the lowest is DI Yogyakarta with a score of 10.3.

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The development at least includes a commitment to cost of developing and implementing green logistics &
the development of green logistics & green ports, cold green ports. An attractive incentive for logistics players to
supply chain, fishing vessel capacity & fishing invest in this sector might be one policy option to be
capabilities, modernization & integration of efficient taken. Blue economy incentive regulations in the blue
multimodal transportation, and the use of new economy roadmap phase 3 (2030-2034) need to be
renewable energy for sea transportation. accelerated towards phase 2 (2025-2029), considering
In line with the discussion, SIRI recommends the that the implementation target of green ports & green
government to further review and set annual contribution logistics is in phase 2. This is a timeline alignment so that
& growth targets from 7 priority sectors of the blue the implementation of green ports & green logistics is
economy. This is important to ensure that the blue more attractive to be adopted by major logistics players
economy's GDP contribution target of 12.5% of national & major ports.
GDP can be achieved. It is expected that 3 main sectors
In addition, the Indonesia Blue Economy Roadmap 2023-
such as capture fisheries & aquaculture, marine
2045, and the Indonesia Blue Economy Index (IBEI) need
manufacturing industry, and marine transportation have
to be disseminated evenly nationally. This is important to
a greater contribution than the other 4 sectors. This is one
increase social awareness and mutual understanding
of the considerations for weighting the target contribution
regarding the urgency and plan for the development of
of each sector in the future. Serious development and
the Blue Economy in Indonesia. After becoming a
significant growth of these 3 sectors can be prioritized,
national understanding, the Government needs to
although the other 4 sectors will be a source of new
determine and describe in more detail the responsibilities
growth gradually. Similarly, the growth target of each
and roles of each agency and institution in achieving the
sector needs to be studied further so that the overall blue
standards of various blue economy programs. In addition,
economy can grow above the national economy.
a mechanism for periodic monitoring and evaluation of its
Regarding the marine transportation & logistics sector, the implementation is also needed to mitigate the risk of
government needs to pay attention on the case of high deviation of the roadmap target quickly and effectively.

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Global and National Economic Review
Amid inflation that has subsided, the Fed still raises its
benchmark interest rate in June 2023. In June 2023, the
Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points or
0.25 percent, bringing it to a range of between 5.25% to
5.5%. from 5%-5.25% in May 2023. This recorded an
increase in The Fed's interest rate for 11 months in a row
and reached its highest level since 2007. US inflation was
recorded to have decreased in June 2023 to a level of
3%. The US inflation rate is much lower than other
developed countries such as the European Union, even
though European Union inflation in June 2023 is among
the smallest during 2023, namely 5.5%, this figure is still
quite high. However, in contrast to German inflation which
increased to 6.38%. Despite the downward trend, the Fed
continues to raise interest rates aggressively, Senator
Elizabeth Warren called on the Fed to stop raising interest
rates as the US inflation rate has fallen to its lowest level
since early 2021.
On an annual basis, China's economic growth in the
second quarter of 2023 increased to a level of 6.3%, up
from 4.5% in the first quarter of 2023. This was driven by
increased industrial production and investment, despite
slowing retail sales. Industrial production grew by 4.4%
(yoy), up from the previous month's 3.5% in May 2023.
Similar to industrial production, investment in fixed assets
also experienced an increase. Fixed asset investment for
the first half increased by 3.8% (YoY) in the January-June
2023 period. On the other hand, June 2023 retail sales fell
to 3.1% (yoy) compared to the previous month which was
at 12.7% ( YoY). This reflects savings in retail consumption
even though June inflation was recorded at a stable level
of 0.2% YoY.
Global manufacturing activity is still in the contraction
zone at the end of the second quarter of 2023 and growth
in service activity is slowing down. The global
manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in June
2023 was 48.8, down from 49.6 in May 2023 in the previous
month, indicating a contractionary phenomenon in
manufacturing spending that had not fully recovered.
Global output also grew at a slower rate due to reduced
production, which was reflected in the J.P Morgan Global
Composite Output Index of 52.7, down from the previous
month from 54.4 in May 2023. Service activity fell to 54.0 in
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June 2023 compared to 55 .5 in May 2023, indicating a
decline in global service activity although still expansive,
due to rising inflation from service prices amid falling
prices for goods.
Figure 2. Global Composite Output Index and Inflation in
Some Developed Countries
Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan (processed
by SIRI)
During the Eid al-Adha period, core inflation increased,
especially in terms of air transportation and house rental
costs, but overall CPI inflation was still well maintained.
Core inflation was recorded at 0.12% (mtm), an increase
from 0.06% (mtm) in the previous month. The
development of core inflation is in line with the increase in
people's mobility in line with the addition of the Eid al-
Adha HKBN holiday, causing inflation in air freight and
filter clove cigarettes and transmission of continued
increases in tobacco excise rates, as well as contracts
and house rent. Nonetheless, overall CPI inflation
declined relatively in June 2023 with a recorded value of
3.52% (yoy), lower than the previous month's CPI inflation
which was recorded at 4.00% (yoy). This occurred, among
other things, due to a decrease in inflation in the volatile
foods group in June 2023 of 0.44% (mtm), a decrease
compared to the previous month's inflation of 0.49%
(mtm). This development was contributed mainly by
deflation in shallots and cooking oil. Likewise, the
administered prices group recorded a deflation of 0.02%
(mtm), lower than the deflation in the previous month of
0.25% (mtm) mainly due to the price adjustment of non-
subsidized fuel oil on 1 June 2023.
Indonesia's manufacturing activity continued in an
expansionary phase, as reflected in the Manufacturing
PMI which rose to a level of 52.5 in June 2023. This
strengthening was supported by increased production

activity. The consistency of the manufacturing sector in
an expansionary phase for 22 consecutive months is
accompanied by maintained optimism and public
confidence. From the consumption side, the Consumer
Confidence Index (IKK) is still well above the optimistic
zone (≥100), namely 127.1. Indonesia's Manufacturing PMI
in June 2023 increased to a level of 52.7 from a level of
50.3 in May 2023, while global PMI and ASEAN PMI
decreased compared to the previous month. Global PMI
decreased to 48.8 while ASEAN PMI also showed a
decrease to level 51 in June from 51.1 in May.
Figure 3. World, ASEAN, and Indonesia PMI
Source: IHS Markit (processed by SIRI)
The Indonesian central bank, Bank Indonesia (BI),
decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged
at 5.75% at its biweekly board meeting on July 24-25,
2023. The decision was in line with the bank's stance of
maintaining inflation in the target range of 3.0% ± 1% for
the rest of 2023 and 2.5% ± 1% in 2024. The focus of policy
is on strengthening rupiah stability to control imported
inflation and mitigate the impact of the spillover of
uncertainty in the global financial markets. Liquidity
incentive and macroprudential policies are strengthened
to encourage credit/financing with a focus on
downstream processing, housing, tourism and inclusive
and green financing.
The performance of the 2023 APBN is growing positively,
with strong tax receipts being a major supporting factor.
State revenue as of June 2023 reached Rp1.407,91T
(57.16% of the target), increasing by 5.37% (YoY). This
revenue consists of tax revenue and Non-Tax State
Revenue (PNBP). Tax revenue at the end of June 2023
reached Rp1.105,63T (54.70% of the target), consisting of
tax revenue of Rp830,29T (56.47% of the target) and
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Customs & Excise of Rp135,43T (44.67% of the target). Tax
revenue experienced very good growth of 9.93%. The
performance of tax revenue during this period was
supported by the very strong Indonesian economy in the
first quarter of 2023. Meanwhile, non-tax state revenue by
the end of June 2023 reached a realization of Rp302,13T
(68.45% of the target), far larger than June 2022 which
reached Rp286,38T. On the other hand, state spending
realization reached Rp1.255,66T (41.02% of the budget) at
the end of June 2023. Central government spending was
realized at Rp891,59T (39.69% against the budget) while
Transfers to Regions (TKD) have been disbursed at
Rp364,07T (44.69% of the budget), lower by 0.98% (yoy).
Indonesia's trade surplus in June 2023 increased to
US$3.45 billion, up from US$0.44 billion in May. This surplus
continues the positive trend that has been in place since
June 2020. The surplus was driven by the non-oil and gas
trade balance, which showed positive performance in
exports, especially of commodities such as coal, including
lignite, and palm oil products. Indonesia's exports in June
2023 reached US$20.61 billion, down 5.08% (MoM) and
weakening by 21.18%. The largest decline in non-oil and
gas exports in June 2023 compared to May 2023 occurred
in the mineral fuels commodity by US$441.3 million
(11.54%), while the largest increase occurred in
animal/vegetable fats and oils by US$834.9 million
(43.68%). By sector, non-oil and gas exports from the
processing industry in January-June 2023 fell 10.19% (YoY),
as did exports from agriculture, forestry, and fisheries,
which fell 3.41%, and exports from mining and other
sectors, which fell 6.72%. Non-oil and gas exports to China
in June declined from US$4.78 billion to US$4.58 billion. On
the other hand, imports reached US$17.15 billion, down
19.40% (MoM) and weakening at 18.35% (YoY). Oil and
non-oil imports also fell by 29.12% and 17.73%,
respectively, compared to May 2023. The value of non-oil
and gas imports from China, the largest supplier of
imported goods, also increased from US$25.13 billion to
US$29.99 billion in June 2023.
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Figure 4. Indonesia’s Export and Import value

Source: BPS (processed by SIRI)

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Logistics and Shipping Industry Review
Until May'23, global container shipping prices continued (+7.14% QoQ and +10.29% YoY), to Makassar Port (+0 .00%
to decline gradually to the level of 76 (-4.52% MoM and - QoQ and -0.22% YoY).
56.82% YoY) since August'22. This is in line with the
decrease in the price of container transportation on
almost all the world's main shipping routes which has
decreased quite significantly on a monthly and annual
basis. The price index of container freight on the Asia –
North America route fell to the level of 85 (-3.41% MoM
and -69.86% YoY), Asia – Europe was at the level of 73 (-
2.67% MoM and -73.55% YoY), North America – Asia at 72
(-6.49% MoM and -28.71% YoY), Europe-Asia at 65 (-4.41%
MoM and -40.37% YoY), a decline was also followed on
the Asia – Asia route at the level of 85 (-15.00% MoM and
-56.63% YoY) on a monthly basis.
The volume of container transport on several major world
shipping routes as well as the volume of global container
transport has begun to show an increase. The volume of
global container shipments in May'23 began to increase
to the level of 17,038,200 TEUs (+9.12% MoM and +18.58%
YoY) after previously continuing to record a downward
trend from November'22 to February'23. This increase was
also in line with the increasing volume of container
transport on several major shipping routes, including the
Asia-Asia route which increased to 4,320,100 TEUs
(+16.67% MoM and -1.23% YoY, and the Asia-North
America route 1,709,100 (+0.36% MoM and -10.98% YoY).
However, the Europe-Asia route saw a decrease of
520,200 (-6.47% MoM) and -9.06% YoY) on a monthly
basis.The decline also occurred on the Asia-Europe route
by 1,445,300 (-0.03% MoM and +6.98% YoY) and the North
America-Asia route by 524,400 (-3.34% MoM and +7.35%
YoY) on a monthly basis.
Meanwhile, the level of sea connectivity of ports in
Indonesia has decreased. In the second quarter of 2023
(Q2'23), Indonesia's sea connectivity level, as indicated
by the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) indicator,
is at the level of 38.41 (-32.61% QoQ and +12.31% YoY) or
decreased 18.59 points from Q1 '23. By port, the decline
in the level of Indonesia's sea connectivity which is on a
negative trend occurred at the Port of Jakarta (-32.02%
QoQ and +11.11% YoY). While the increase in sea
connectivity which is on a positive trend occurred in
Surabaya (+3.47% QoQ and +8.76% YoY) Semarang
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Figure 5. Indonesia Sea Connectivity (Q1 2006=100)
Source: UNCTAD (processed by SIRI)
The container shipping industry showed a positive trend in
July'23 with a monthly increase, after previously
experiencing a decline. An index showing the global
average price for 40-foot container freight from seven
major world shipping routes, the Drewry World Container
Freight Rate Index was recorded at US$1,713/FEU
(+25.77% MoM and -71.51% YoY) which which recorded
an increase on a monthly basis. The World Container
Charter Rate (-11.73% MoM and -54.75% YoY) continued
to decline both on a monthly and annual basis. This is an
indicator of the cost structure of container shipping.
Meanwhile, the decline also occurred in the World
Container Vessel Price (-0.33% MoM and -54.45% YoY)
which was seen declining on a monthly basis.
The price of transportation of coal and dry bulk
commodities again recorded a decline in June'23,
followed by selling prices for dry bulk carriers which also
recorded a decline. In June'23, the price of transporting
coal commodities, the World Coal Freight Rate (-6.06%
MoM and -28.27% YoY), again showed a decline after
previously experiencing a decline in the previous month.
This is in line with the Baltic Dry Index (-10.69% MoM and -
53.87% YoY), an index showing the average cost of
transporting global dry bulk commodities which has
recorded a gradual decline since March'23. The similar
thing happened to the selling price index for dry bulk
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Juli 2023 – Vol. 017

commodity transport vessels, the World Dry Bulk Vessel

Price Index (-5.45% MoM and -15.23% YoY), which
recorded a decline on a monthly basis.

The shipping industry of raw wet bulk commodities

recorded a decline in July'23. In July'23, the price of ship
freight for wet bulk raw commodities, the World Dirty
Tanker Freight Rate (-30.59% MoM and -28.92% YoY)
recorded a decline on a monthly and annual basis. In
accordance to the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, which
recorded a decline as well to the level of 947 (-17.51%
MoM and -36.06% YoY) after previously recording an
upward trend in May'23.

The performance of the shipping industry for wet bulk

processed commodities showed an upward trend in
July'23. The price for ship freight of wet bulk processed
commodities, the World Clean Tanker Freight Rate
(+6.94% MoM and -53.75% YoY) increased on a monthly
basis. This is also in line with the Baltic Clean Tanker Index
(+3.08% MoM and -54.43% YoY) which recorded an
increase on a monthly basis. On the other hand, a decline
occurred in the selling price of wet bulk carriers, the World
Tanker Vessel Price Index (-0.81% MoM and +29.82% YoY)
on a monthly basis, which is an indicator of the shipping
cost structure for processed wet bulk commodities.

Ship fuel prices recorded a decline in July'23. In July'23,

the price of low sulfur type marine fuel, Singapore VLSFO
Bunker Price, was recorded at US$505/Mt (-12.17% MoM
and -47.83% YoY), indicating a decline in prices on a
monthly and annual basis.

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Movement of Key Economic and Industry Indicators

Tabel 2. Movement of Key Economic and Industry Indicators

Source: Various sources (processed by SIRI)

Release
Indicators Frequency Value Unit PoP Ytd
Date

Global and National Economics Indicator

World PMI Sept '22 Monthly 49.30 Index 1.79% -3.95%
ASEAN PMI Sept '22 Monthly 52.30 Index 0.38% 0.80%
Indonesia PMI Sept '22 Monthly 51.70 Index 2.19% -4.47%
Indonesia GDP at 2010 Constant Prices Q2 '22 Quarterly 2,923,675 Billion IDR 3.73% 3.73%
Indonesia Current Account Balance Q2 '22 Quarterly 3,853 Million USD 846.68% 0.00%
Indonesia Capital Accout Balance Q2 '22 Quarterly 3 Million USD 200.00% 0.00%
Indonesia Financial Account Balance Q2 '22 Quarterly -1,085 Million USD 49.04% 0.00%
Indonesia Balance of Payment Q2 '22 Quarterly 2,771 Million USD -252.50% 0.00%
Indonesia Resserve Assets Position Q2 '22 Quarterly 136,379 Million USD -1.98% 0.00%
Indonesia Resserve Assets Position In Months of
Q2 '22 Quarterly 6.41 Month -7.90% 0.00%
Imports & Official Debt Repayment
Indonesia Foreign Investment Realization Q2 '22 Quarterly 11,370 Million USD 100.51% 0.00%
Indonesia Domestic Investment Realization Q2 '22 Quarterly 139,017 Billion IDR 2.84% 0.00%
Indonesia Export Value Aug '22 Monthly 27,907 Million USD -3.15% 31.86%
Indonesia Import Value Aug '22 Monthly 22,150 Million USD 1.66% 17.12%
Thousand
Indonesia Non-Oil & Gas Export Volume Aug '22 Monthly 52,601 7.91% 106.29%
Ton
Thousand
Indonesia Non-Oil & Gas Import Volume Jun '22 Monthly 11,753 13.61% 26.00%
Ton
Indonesia Consumer Price Index Aug '22 Monthly 111.50 Index 0.64% 3.27%
USA Federal Funds Effective Rate Aug '22 Monthly 2.33% Percentage 0.81% 1.50%
BI 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate Sept '22 Monthly 4.25% Percentage 0.25% 0.25%
Investment Lending Rate - Commercial Banks Jul '22 Monthly 10.26% Percentage -0.09% -0.20%
Investment Lending Rate - State Banks Jul '22 Monthly 8.45% Percentage -0.03% -0.02%
Investment Lending Rate - Regional Government
Jul '22 Monthly 9.50% Percentage -0.10% -0.22%
Banks
Investment Lending Rate - Private National Banks Jul '22 Monthly 7.87% Percentage -0.15% -0.38%
Investment Lending Rate - Foreign & Joint Banks Jul '22 Monthly 5.95% Percentage -0.05% -0.29%
Note:
Exchange Rate - IDR/USD 19 Sept '22 Daily 14,985
PoP = Period on Period (PoP) is the change in indicator level of the current period from the previous one (example: change in indicator level in
IDR/USD -1.20% 3.16%
Exchange
February Rateto -January
2022 compared IDR/SGD2022 19 Sept '22 Daily 10,628 IDR/SGD -1.52% 0.13%
Exchange Rate - IDR/JPY 19 Sept '22 Daily 105 IDR/JPY -1.64% -13.53%
Exchange Rate - IDR/THB 19 Sept '22 Daily 406 IDR/THB 1.22% -4.07%
Exchange Rate - IDR/MYR 19 Sept '22 Daily 3,290 IDR/MYR -1.75% -3.57%
Exchange Rate - IDR/INR 19 Sept '22 Daily 188 IDR/INR -1.06% -3.53%
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Exchange Rate - IDR/AED 19 Sept '22 Daily 4,070 IDR/AED -1.20% 3.14%
Commodity Price
WTI Crude Oil Futures Price 19 Sept '22 Daily 86.00 USD/Bbl -4.21% 3.23%
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Juli 2023 – Vol. 017

Projection of Key Economic and Industry Indicators

Figure 6. Projection NYMEX Coal Price (USD/Ton)

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

Figure 7. Projection of WTI Crude Oil Price (USD/Bbl)

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

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Figure 8. Projection of Baltic Dirty Tanker Index

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

Figure 9. Projection of Baltic Clean Tanker Index

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

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Figure 10. Projection of Dry Bulk Vessel Price Index

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

Figure 11. Projection of Tanker Vessel Price Index

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

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Figure 12. Projection of Singapore VLSFO Bunker Price (USD/Mt)

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

Figure 13. Projection of World Container Index/Container Rate

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

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Figure 14. Projection of Container Charter Rate Index

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

Figure 15. Projection of Container Vessel Price Index

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

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Glossary
PMI Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) is an index used to measure market optimism/business conditions in
the current month. PMI values range from 0 – 100 with values above 50 indicating optimism and values
below 50 indicating pessimism of market/business players in the current month.

LSCI The Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) is an index used to measure the level of integration of a
country into the world's liner shipping network. The base LSCI value is the China index value in Q1
2006.

PLSCI The Port Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (PLSCI) is an index used to measure the level of integration
of a port with the world's liner shipping network. The PLSCI base value is the index value in Q1 2006.

FFR The Fed Funds Rate (FFR) is the United States (US) benchmark interest rate determined by the Fed (US
central bank) through the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as the target for the Fed's
reference interest rate which will be realized through monetary operations.

BI 7 DRRR Bank Indonesia 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate (BI 7 DRRR) is Indonesia's reference interest rate determined
by Bank Indonesia through the Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) of Bank Indonesia (BI) as the target
of BI's reference interest rate which will be realized through monetary operations.

YoY Year on Year (YoY) is the change in indicator level on an annual basis (example: change in indicator
level in February 2022 compared to February 2021).

PoP Period on Period (PoP) is the change in the indicator level of the current period from the previous one
(example: change in indicator level in February 2022 compared to January 2022).

Freight Rate Freight rate is the shipping price measured based on the unit of measurement (UoM) of cargo
(example: USD/TEUs container cargo freight rate).

Charter Rate Charter rate is the rental price of the vessel which is measured based on the rental price per day or in
accordance with the UoM agreed between the vessel owner and charterer.

Baltic Index The Baltic index is an index compiled by the Baltic Exchange using a weighted method that refers to
the volume of shipments on the world's main routes to determine the growth in shipping costs of dry
and liquid bulk cargo (raw materials) on these routes over a certain period.

Bunker Bunker is ship's fuel.

VLSFO Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) is a type of ship fuel that has a sulfur content of less than or equal to
0.5%.

Tanker Tanker is a type of liquid bulk cargo carrier (example: crude oil).

Dry Bulk Dry bulk ship is a type of dry bulk cargo carrier (example: coal).

Clean Tanker Clean tanker is a type of tanker cargo that has been processed so that it needs special treatment to
maintain the quality of the cargo (e.g., finished petroleum products).

Dirty Tanker Dirty tanker is a type of crude tanker cargo so there is no need for special treatment to maintain the
quality of the cargo (e.g., crude oil).

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DISCLAIMER/PENYANGKALAN
Samudera Logistics Brief adalah produk kajian bulanan
yang diterbitkan oleh Samudera Indonesia Research
Initiatives (“SIRI”). Materi Samudera Logistics Brief
terdiri dari isu pilihan, perkembangan ekonomi, dan
perkembangan industri. Selain itu, Samudera Logistics
Brief juga menampilkan update data bulanan untuk
indikator ekonomi dan industri logistik.
Laporan ini disusun secara independen oleh SIRI dan
karenanya tidak mencerminkan serta bukan merupakan
pandangan resmi dari PT Samudera Indonesia Tangguh
atau anak-anak perusahaannya (“Samudera Indonesia”).
Laporan ini disediakan hanya terbatas sebagai informasi
semata, dan karenanya seluruh prakiraan, pendapat dan
asumsi yang terkandung dalam Laporan adalah
sepenuhnya milik SIRI dan hanya ditujukan untuk
memberikan tambahan pengetahuan kepada pihak
penerima informasi.
Meskipun seluruh tindakan kehati-hatian yang
diperlukan telah diambil guna memastikan bahwa
informasi yang terkandung dalam Laporan ini adalah
benar atau tidak menyesatkan pada saat publikasi di
lakukan, SIRI tidak memberikan jaminan atas keakuratan
atau kelengkapan informasi tersebut dan dengan
demikian tidak seharusnya penerima informasi
menyandarkan keputusannya atas informasi tersebut.
SIRI dapat mengubah, memodifikasi, menambah, atau
menghapus setiap kesalahan atau kekurangan di dalam
laporan ini tanpa pemberitahuan sebelumnya.
Samudera Indonesia, SIRI, maupun setiap pejabat atau
karyawannya tidak bertanggung jawab dalam hal apa
pun atas kerugian, yang timbul baik secara langsung
maupun tidak langsung dari penggunaan informasi
tersebut.
Isi dari publikasi ini merupakan hak milik dari SIRI dan
karenanya tunduk pada seluruh aturan perlindungan
terkait (termasuk namun tidak terbatas pada
perlindungan hak cipta) berdasarkan hukum Negara
Republik Indonesia. Tidak ada bagian dari publikasi ini
yang dapat direproduksi, dilisensikan, dijual, diubah,
diadaptasi tanpa persetujuan tertulis dari SIRI
sebelumnya.
Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, dapat menghubungi tim
SIRI:adithya.prabowo@samudera.id dan
research@samudera.id
Samudera Logistics Brief
Juli 2023 – Vol. 017
Samudera Logistics Brief is a monthly report published by
Samudera Indonesia Research Initiatives (“SIRI”). The
material in Samudera Logistics Brief consists of hot topic in
the current month, economic review, and industrial
review. In addition, Samudera Logistics Brief also displays
monthly data updates for economic and the logistics
industry indicators.
This report has been prepared independently by SIRI and
do not necessarily reflect those and are not an official view
of PT Samudera Indonesia Tangguh or any of its’
subsidiaries (“Samudera Indonesia”). This report is
provided for information purposes only, all forecasts,
opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely
those of SIRI and only intended to provide additional
knowledge for the recipient of the information.
While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that
information contained herein is not untrue or misleading
at the time of publication, SIRI makes no representation as
to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied
upon as such. SIRI may change, modify, add, or remove any
errors or omissions in the report without notification.
Samudera Indonesia, SIRI, nor any of their officer or
employee are not responsible in any way for any direct or
consequential loss arising from the use of such
information.
The contents of this publication are owned by SIRI and are
subject to all relevant protection (including but not limited
to copyright protection) under the laws of the Republic of
Indonesia. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
licensed, sold, modified, adapted without the prior written
permission of SIRI.
For further information, please contact the SIRI team:
adithya.prabowo@samudera.id and
research@samudera.id
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