REP-300

Market Strategy
Sep’23: Index soars as PKR gains ground
02-Oct-2023

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Detailed Report
Pakistan Equity Market October 2, 2023
PSX Performance - Sep 2023
World’s best performing market
The benchmark equity bourse marked a resurgence during the outgoing month of
Sep’23. At the onset of the month, the caretaker PM informed that KSA is expected
to invest USD 25bn in Pakistan, which elated the sentiment of the market. Moreover,
the PKR witnessed a strong comeback with a sharp appreciation after a crackdown
against foreign currency smuggling was initiated. Hence, Pak Rupee closed at PKR
287.74 (after reaching lowest level of PKR 307.10 at the start of the month) against
greenback, gaining PKR +17.80 |+5.83% MoM (making Pak Rupee the World’s
Best-Performing currency in Sep’23). Moreover, the SBP kept the policy rate
unchanged at 22% at MPC (beating the market consensus of hike). The current
account deficit in Aug’23 shrank by 79% YoY amounting to USD 160mn. On the
political front, the ECP announced that the general elections in the country would be
held in the last week of Jan’24. KSE-100 index closed at 46,233 points, gaining
1,230 points | 2.7% MoM.

Major News
Govt hikes petrol price by nearly Rs15, HSD by Rs18, IMC to launch Corolla Cross
hybrid to revive market, PTCL informs PSX it’s making sizable investment in telecom
sector, The Organic Meat Company Secured Export Contract of Boneless Beef to
UAE, Pakistan to receive $77mn for flood resilience, Sunridge acquires 37,123,188
voting shares of Al Shaheer, Pakistan public debt surges 22pc to Rs61.75tr in July,
SBP reserves dip to $7.8bn, down $70m on debt repayment, Wapda’s hydro tariff
increased by 29pc, SIFC identifies 9 power projects worth $6.87bn, IFC commits
$1.5bn in short, long-term investments, import value of Afghan-origin coal declines
to $95 PMT, SNGPL removes 323 illegal connections, recovers over Rs75.4m, Auto
financing drops for 14th straight month in August, OGDCL discovers gas in Punjab,
Hydropower surge cuts electricity cost by nearly a fifth to Rs8.27/KWh in August,
LCI to acquire approx. 75.01pc shareholding of Lotte Chemical Ltd, Engro
Corporation to sell some thermal energy assets, EPCL extends gas supply deal with
SSGC till October 15, Indus Motor halts production for 12 days on supply shortages,
Cement exports surge by over 130 percent to $39.6 mn, and Pakistan's NRL plans
to boost low-sulphur fuel oil output for ships.

P a g e 2 | 12
Detailed Report
Pakistan Equity Market
PSX Performance Sep 2023 October 2, 2023

Fig: KSE-100 historical returns (PKR based) Fig: KSE-100 historical returns (USD based)
PKR based Return Average Return USD based Return Average Return
18.0% 18.0%
15.9% 15.6%
15.0% 15.0%
12.0%
12.0% 9.1%
9.0%
9.0% 6.0% 3.8% 3.9%
3.0% 1.2% 2.0%
6.0%
3.9% 0.1%
0.3% 2.6% 2.7% 0.0%
3.0%

Jul-23
Nov-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Jun-23

Sep-23
Oct-22

Apr-23
Feb-23

Mar-23

May-23

Aug-23
0.6% 0.3% -3.0%
0.0%
-6.0%

Jul-23
Jan-23

Jun-23
Mar-23

Sep-23
Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22

Aug-23
Feb-23

Apr-23

May-23

-3.0% -9.0% -5.6% -1.2%

-9.0%
-0.6% -12.0%
-6.0% -4.6% -0.4% -1.3%
-12.1%
-6.3% -15.0%
-9.0% -14.9%
-18.0%
Source (s): PSX, AHL Research
Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

Fig: KSE-100 historical returns (PKR based) 1QFY24 Fig: KSE-100 historical returns (USD based) 1QFY24
PKR based Return Average Return USD based Return Average Return
20.0% 17.9% 22.5% 19.5%

15.0% 15.0% 11.8% 10.9%

11.5%
6.6%
10.0% 7.5%
7.8% 3.0% 2.8%
6.2% Average: 2.5% Average: -1.2%
5.0% 3.6% 0.0%
1QFY21

2QFY21

3QFY21

4QFY21

1QFY22

2QFY22

3QFY22

4QFY22

1QFY23

2QFY23

3QFY23

4QFY23

1QFY24
1.9%
0.7%
0.0% -7.5%
1QFY21

2QFY21

3QFY21

4QFY21

1QFY22

2QFY22

3QFY22

4QFY22

1QFY23

2QFY23

3QFY23

4QFY23

1QFY24

-4.0%
-3.1% -0.8%
-11.2%
-5.0% -15.0% -12.5%
-5.2% -0.7% -1.0%
-1.0% -17.2%
-7.5% -1.7%
-10.0% -22.5% -21.0%
Source (s): PSX, AHL Research Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

P a g e 3 | 12
 Detailed Report
Pakistan Equity Market
PSX Performance Sep 2023 October 2, 2023

Economic Developments
▪ The Current Account Deficit for Aug’23 amounted to USD 160mn, marking a
significant 79% YoY decrease. To recall, in Aug’22, the CAD had reached USD
774mn. On a YoY basis, the primary reason behind the decline was a 24% YoY
decline in total imports. However, exports and remittances also decreased by
9% YoY and 24% YoY, respectively. On a MoM basis, there was a deceleration
in overall imports, with an increase of only 1% recorded during Aug’23. In
contrast, total exports saw a MoM surge of 14%. Additionally, remittances also
displayed an increase, rising by 3% MoM. During 2MFY24, the CAD declined by
54% YoY to USD 935mn, in contrast to a deficit of USD 2,035mn recorded during
the corresponding period in the previous year.

▪ Remittances by overseas Pakistanis increased by 3% MoM to USD 2.1bn during

Aug'23 compared to USD 2.0bn during Jul’23. On YoY basis, remittances
decreased by 24% (Aug’22: USD 2.7bn). During 2MFY24, remittances went
down by 22% YoY to USD 4.1bn as compared to 5.3bn in 2MFY23. In Aug’23,
the remittance inflow from KSA amounted to USD 490mn, showing a YoY
decline of 29% while a MoM increase of 1%. Remittances from the UAE stood
at USD 308mn in Aug’23, marking a significant YoY decrease of 43% and a MoM
decline of 2%. The UK contributed USD 331mn in remittances during Aug’23,
experiencing a YoY decline of 10% while a MoM increase of 8%. From the USA,
remittances totaled USD 262mn in Aug’23, reflecting a YoY decrease of 12%
while a MoM increase of 9%.

▪ Net foreign direct investment settled at USD 146mn in Aug’23 (+15% YoY |
+67% MoM), compared to net inflow of USD 127mn during Aug’22. During
2MFY24, net FDI up by 16% YoY to USD 234mn compared to an inflow of USD
201mn in 2MFY23. China emerged as the largest contributor to net FDI during
2MFY24 with a net FDI of USD 50mn. Netherlands followed closely with a net
FDI of USD 43mn during the same period. During 2MFY24, the power sector
attracted the most significant investment, amounting to USD 98mn.The oil and
gas exploration sector saw investment of USD 29mn during the same period.

▪ Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) for Jul’23, showed a decline of

3.6% on a MoM basis and a 1.1% decrease YoY. LSMI Index stood at 108.0
during Jul’23 against 109.2 in Jul’22. The decline in LSM during first month of
FY24 can be attributed primarily to factors such as: policy actions taken by the
monetary and fiscal authorities to slow down aggregate demand and the high
cost of doing business. Textile (-22.0% YoY), Coke & Petroleum Products (-
2.3% YoY), Beverages (-6.7% YoY), Iron & Steel Products (-2.7% YoY),
Automobiles (-66.1% YoY), Electrical Equipment (-22.4% YoY), Paper & Board
(-15.4% YoY), Other Transport Equipment (-19.0% YoY), Fabricated Metal (-
4.6% YoY), Wood Products (-4.5% YoY), Leather Products (-2.0% YoY),
Furniture (-57.8% YoY), and Computer, Electronics and Optical Products (-
32.1% YoY). Food (+10.0% YoY), Chemicals (+5.9% YoY), Wearing Apparel
(+30.8% YoY), Pharmaceuticals (+54.2% YoY), Non-Metallic Mineral Products
(+35.2% YoY), Tobacco (+28.4% YoY), Rubber Products (+10.2% YoY),
Machinery and Equipment (+3.9% YoY), and Other Manufacturing (+13.3%
YoY).

P a g e 4 | 12
Detailed Report
Pakistan Equity Market
PSX Performance Sep 2023 October 2, 2023

Trading at the PSX was sluggish during Sep’23

▪ In Sep’23, the average trading volume saw a significant decline of 46% to
160mn shares, and the average trading value also experienced a notable drop
of 53% to USD 19mn.
▪ Yet, in the 1QFY24, there was a notable uptick in activity at PSX, with the
average traded volume and value surging by 84% QoQ to 281mn shares and
110% QoQ to USD 33mn, respectively.

Fig: Traded Volume decreased by 46% during Sep’23 Fig: Traded Value decreased by 53% during Sep’23
Avg. Traded Volume (Regular) MoM Change Avg. Traded Value (Regular) MoM Change

(mn shares) (USD mn)

450 150% 45 41 175%
39
384 40 150%
400 125% 36
35 125%
350 100%
297 28 28 100%
300 277 75% 30 26
75%
25 23
250 50% 21
204 50%
20 19
181 177 177 17 17
200 25%
167 162 169 160 25%
15 13
150 121 0% 0%
10 -25%
100 -25%
5 -50%
50 -50%
- -75%
- -75%

Jul-23
Nov-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

Sep-23
Oct-22

Apr-23
Feb-23

May-23
Jul-23
Jun-23

Aug-23

Sep-23
Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Source (s): PSX, AHL Research Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

Fig: Traded Volume increased by 84% during 1QFY24 Fig: Traded Value increased by 110% during 1QFY24
Avg. Traded Volume (Regular) QoQ Change Avg. Traded Value (Regular) QoQ Change
(mn shares) (USD mn)
800 200% 160 150 140%
669 140 131 120%
700
150% 100%
600 558 120
105 80%
500 100% 96
500 100 60%
412 85
395
400 50% 80 40%
281 59
275 60 20%
300 232 248 218 220 0% 41 37 0%
200 174 153 40 31 29 33
25 -20%
-50% 16
100 20 -40%
- -100% - -60%
2QFY23
1QFY21

2QFY21

3QFY21

4QFY21

1QFY22

2QFY22

3QFY22

4QFY22

1QFY23

3QFY23

4QFY23

1QFY24
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24

Source (s): PSX, AHL Research Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

P a g e 5 | 12
Detailed Report
Pakistan Equity Market
PSX Performance Sep 2023 October 2, 2023

▪ In Sep’23, the highest average trading volumes were observed in WTL (9.7mn
shares), followed by MLCF (6.5mn shares) and PIAA (6.3mn shares).

▪ The highest trading values were dominated by PPL (USD 1.3mn), followed
closely by OGDC (USD 1.3mn) and ATRL (USD 1.2mn) during Sep’23.

▪ When looking at sectors, the highest trading volumes were observed in Banks
(19.5mn shares), closely followed by Technology (18.8mn shares) and Power
(17.0mn shares).

▪ In terms of sector-wise traded value, Banks took the lead with USD 3.2mn,
followed by E&P (USD 3.1mn) and Refinery (USD 1.9mn).

Fig: Scrip wise volume leaders Fig: Scrip wise value leaders

(mn shares) (USD mn)

10.5 1.4
9.7 1.29 1.28
1.18
9.0 1.2

7.5 1.0
6.5 6.3 0.86
6.0 5.3 0.8 0.75
4.6 4.4 0.65 0.64
4.3 4.2 4.1 0.57 0.56
4.5 4.0 0.6
0.48
3.0 0.4

1.5 0.2

- -
PIAA

DFML
WTL

MLCF

CNERGY

BAFL
NCPL

OGDC
PPL

KEL

NRL
ATRL

MCB

HUBC

HBL

BAFL
TRG

MLCF
OGDC
PPL

Source (s): PSX, AHL Research Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

Fig: Sector wise volume leaders Fig: Sector wise value leaders

(mn shares) (USD mn)

24.0 4.0

21.0 19.5 3.5 3.2

18.8 3.1
18.0 17.0 3.0

15.0 2.5
12.4
11.4 1.9
12.0 2.0 1.7
9.9 9.6 1.5 1.4
8.4 8.0 7.8 1.5 1.3
9.0
1.0
6.0 1.0 0.6 0.5
3.0 0.5

- -
Banks

OGMCs

Technology

Fertilizer
E&P

Refinery

Power
Cement

Food
Autos Assem.
Banks

OGMCs
Technology

Pharma
Power

E&P
Food
Cement

Refinery

Transport

Source (s): PSX, AHL Research Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

P a g e 6 | 12
Detailed Report
Pakistan Equity Market
PSX Performance Sep 2023 October 2, 2023

Index Contribution
▪ Sector-wise positive contributors during Sep’23 were Power (335pts) led by
HUBC on anticipation of higher payouts in the future, E&P’s (288pts) on account
of robust financial results coupled with a potential hike in gas prices, followed by
Cements (205pts) owed to strong growth in dispatches followed by revived
sentiment given SBP kept interest rates unchanged, OGMC (154pts) and
Refinery (91pts). Whereas negative index contribution was led by Technology
(182pts), Banks (50pts), Auto Assemblers (25pts) and Funds (4pts)

▪ Scrip-wise positive contributors during the month were i) HUBC (288pts), ii) PPL
(154pts), DAWH (119pts), PSO (78pts) and LUCK (70pts).

▪ Meanwhile scrip-wise negative contributions were led by SYS (179pts), HBL

(109pts), MTL (56pts), ENGRO (47pts) and FFC (37pts).

Fig: Company wise top index contributors (Sep’23) Fig: Sector wise top index contributors (Sep’23)

HUBC Power 335

288
PPL E&P 288
154
DAWH 119 Cement 205

OGMCs 154
PSO 78

LUCK 70 Refinery 91

(37) FFC (1) Vanaspati

(47) ENGRO (4) Funds

(56) MTL (25) Autos Assem.

(109) HBL (50) Banks

(179) SYS (182) Technology

(200) (150) (100) (50) - 50 100 150 200 250 300 (200) (100) - 100 200 300 400

Source (s): PSX, AHL Research Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

Fig: Company wise top index contributors (1QFY24) Fig: Sector wise top index contributors (1QFY24)

HUBC 516 Banks 2,214

UBL 509 E&P 850

MEBL 412 Power 610

HBL 357 Cement 178

OGDC 325 Food 174

(47) TRG (15) Pharma
(49) DGKC (17) Paper
(50) FFC Misc
(22)
(57) EFERT (68) Technology

(137) ENGRO
(82) Fertilizer
(200) (100) - 100 200 300 400 500 600 (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Source (s): PSX, AHL Research Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

P a g e 7 | 12
Detailed Report
Pakistan Equity Market
PSX Performance Sep 2023 October 2, 2023

Major Gainers and Losers

▪ Scrip-wise performance chart during the month was led by PGLC, LOTCHEM,
ILP, PSMC and SCBPL, each posting a positive return of 32%, 26%, 23%, 20%,
and 20% respectively. However, MUREB, UPFL, HGFA, ARPL and SYS posted
negative returns (13%, 10%, 10%, 8% and 8% respectively).

▪ In terms of sectors, Leasing was the best performing sector posting a return of
32% followed by Refinery (14%), Power (13%), Inv. Banks (11%) and Textile
Weaving (11%). Negative returns were led by Mutual Fund (10%), Vanaspati
(7%), Technology (5%), Modarabas (1%) and Fertilizers (1%).

Fig: Scrip wise major gainers (KSE-100) Fig: Scrip wise major losers (KSE-100)

35% 32% 15%

13%
30%
26%
25% 23% 10% 10%
20% 20% 10%
20% 18% 8% 8%
16% 16% 16%
15% 7%
15% 6%
5% 5%
10% 5% 4%

5%

0%
SCBPL
ILP

HCAR

BOP
ATRL

NRL
PGLC

LOTCHEM

PSMC

SNGP

0%
HGFA

ABOT
HBL
SYS

POML
MUREB

ARPL
UPFL

MTL

SHFA
Source (s): PSX, AHL Research Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

Fig: Sector wise major gainers (KSE100) Fig: Sector wise major losers (KSE100)

35% 10.0% 9.6%

32%

30%
8.0%
6.8%
25%
6.0% 5.4%

20%
4.0%
15% 14%
13%
11% 11% 11%
2.0% 1.3%
10% 9%
10% 8% 0.7% 0.7%
0.4% 0.3%
6%
0.0%
5%
Mutual Fund

Vanaspati

Sugar
Banks

Automobile Assm.
Modarabas
Technology

Fertilizer
OMCs
Power

Transport

Textile Comp.
Refinery

Inv. Banks

Textile Weaving

Textile Spinning
Leasing

Cable & Elec.

Source (s): PSX, AHL Research Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

P a g e 8 | 12
 Detailed Report
Pakistan Equity Market
PSX Performance Sep 2023 October 2, 2023

Regional Portfolio Investment

▪ Foreign selling was witnessed in the Asia-pacific region during Sep’23, which was
led by i) Taiwan (USD 5.9bn) and ii) India (USD 1.9bn) on concerns over further
hike FED rates in future followed by iii) South Korea (USD 1.7bn), iv) Thailand
(USD 0.6bn, and Philippines (USD 0.5bn). Whereas foreign buying was observed
only in Malaysia (USD 159mn).

▪ On the domestic stock exchange, there was foreign selling activity totaling USD
9.1mn for the month. The outflows were predominantly in Cements (USD 4.8mn),
Fertilizer (USD 1.9mn), Banks (USD 1.0mn), and E&P (USD 0.8mn). In contrast,
there were net purchases observed in Technology (USD 1.1mn), Food (USD
0.2mn), and Power (USD 0.1mn).

Fig: Local investor’s portfolio investment during Sep’23 Fig: Sector-wise FIPI during Sep’23

(USD mn) (USD mn) Net Buy | (Sell)

Net Buy | (Sell)
2.0
12.0 1.4
9.8
1.0
8.0 6.8 0.2 0.1
6.2
-
3.4

E&P
Food

Power

Banks

Others

Cement
Technology

OGMCs

Textile

Fertilizer
4.0
(1.0)
0.0 (0.8)
(0.3) (0.5)
Companies
Individuals

Other Org.

Insurance

Funds
NBFC

Banks/DFIs
Brokers

(2.0) (1.0) (1.4)

(1.9)
-4.0
(3.0)
0.0 -0.5
-8.0 -1.1
(4.0)

-12.0 (5.0)
(4.8)
-16.0 (6.0)
-15.5

Source (s): NCCPL, AHL Research Source (s): NCCPL, AHL Research

Fig: Sector wise LIPI during Sep’23 Fig: Regional Portfolio Investment during Sep’23
(USD mn) Net Buy | (Sell) (USD mn)
5.5
159

4.8 1,000

0
India
(9) Pakistan

Thailand
(5) Sri Lanka

Taiwan
(1,694) South Korea
Malaysia

(186) Vietnam

(464) Philippines
(263) Indonesia

4.0
-1,000

-2,000
2.5
(1,928)

1.9
(616)

1.4 -3,000
1.0
1.0 0.8 -4,000
0.5
0.3
-5,000
E&P
Others

Power

Food
Banks
Cement

Technology
Fertilizer

Textile

OGMCs

(0.5)
-6,000
(5,885)

(0.1) (0.2) -7,000

(2.0)
(1.4)
-8,000
Source (s): NCCPL, AHL Research Source (s): Bloomberg, NCCPL, AHL Research

P a g e 9 | 12
Detailed Report
Pakistan Equity Market
PSX Performance Sep 2023 October 2, 2023

Outlook and Recommendation

The market participants are expected to closely monitor progress on economy and
any update on the impending gas tariff adjustment in Oct’23, as they will have a
crucial influence on steering the market's trajectory. Furthermore, the scheduled
monetary policy announcement by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on 30th Oct’23,
could have a notable influence on the market's momentum.

The YoY headline inflation for Sep’23 is expected to be 31.1%, showing an uptick
from the previous month, Aug’23, which had a YoY inflation rate of 27.4%.In the
meantime, it is expected that inflation will remain at elevated levels in the coming
months due to the effects of recent increases in food prices, power tariffs, and
budgetary measures. Looking forward, the primary factors posing risks to overall
inflation include the potential for sustained pressure on both food and energy prices,
alongside an imminent adjustment in gas tariffs. It's important to note that the
strengthening of the PKR against the U.S. dollar is expected to play a mitigating
role, offering some relief from inflationary pressures.

Furthermore, the earnings season for the 1QFY24 and the 3QCY23 is will
commence from Oct’23, where we expect announcement of robust earnings from
major companies and sectors. This is likely to keep specific stocks in the limelight.

The KSE-100 is currently trading at a PER of 3.6x (2024) as compared to its 5-year
average of 5.7x offering a dividend yield of ~11.7% as compared to its 5-year
average of ~6.8%. Our preferred stocks are OGDC, PPL, MARI, MCB, UBL, MEBL,
LUCK, MLCF, ENGRO, FFC, HUBC, and INDU.

P a g e 10 | 12
 Detailed Report
Pakistan Equity Market
PSX Performance Sep 2023 October 2, 2023

Exhibit: World's Major Stock Market Performance (USD based return, Sep'23)
Sr# Index Country Index Return (%) Sr# Index Country Index Return (%)

1 KSE100 Index Pakistan 46,233 9.1 39 FBMKLCI Index Malaysia 1,424 (3.1)

2 EGX30 Index Egypt 20,174 6.9 40 IBEX Index Spain 9,428 (3.2)

3 BET Index Romania 14,338 4.9 41 JALSH Index South Africa 72,383 (3.4)

4 SEMDEX Index Mauritius 2,142 4.0 42 INDU Index USA 33,508 (3.5)

5 MSETOP Index Mongolia 35,437 3.9 43 SPTSX Index Canada 19,541 (3.7)

6 OBXP Index Norway 577 2.4 44 PSI20 Index Portugal 6,090 (3.7)

7 XU100 Index Turkey 8,335 2.4 45 SASEIDX Index Saudi Arabia 11,056 (3.8)

8 PCOMP Index Philippines 6,321 2.4 46 IMOEX Index Russia 3,133 (3.9)

9 DFMGI Index Dubai 4,164 2.0 47 AS51 Index Australia 7,049 (3.9)

10 KZKAK Index Kazakhstan 4,104 1.8 48 VILSE Index Lithuania 942 (4.3)

11 GGSECI Index Ghana 3,173 1.3 49 BUX Index Hungary 55,839 (4.3)

12 SENSEX Index India 65,828 1.0 50 AEX Index Netherland 729 (4.4)

13 CSEALL Index Sri Lanka 11,336 0.9 51 FTSEMIB Index Italy 28,243 (4.4)

14 DSM Index Qatar 10,252 0.5 52 CAC Index France 7,135 (4.8)

15 JOSMGNFF Index Jordan 2,414 0.1 53 SMI Index Switzerland 10,964 (4.9)

16 PFTS Index Ukraine 507 (0.2) 54 RTSI$ Index Russia 1,008 (4.9)

17 ADSMI Index UAE 9,785 (0.3) 55 SPX Index USA 4,288 (4.9)

18 NGSEINDX Index Nigeria 66,382 (0.3) 56 NKY Index Japan 31,858 (4.9)

19 TALSE Index Estonia 1,855 (0.6) 57 HEX Index Finland 9,576 (4.9)

20 BHSEASI Index Bahrain 1,939 (0.7) 58 NDX Index USA 14,715 (5.1)

21 IBOV Index Brazil 116,565 (0.7) 59 SX5E Index Europe 4,175 (5.2)

22 OMX Index Sweden 2,155 (1.0) 60 LUXXX Index Luxembourg 1,412 (5.2)

23 SBITOP Index Slovenia 1,174 (1.2) 61 RIGSE Index Latvia 1,349 (5.3)

24 UKX Index UK 7,608 (1.4) 62 BEL20 Index Belgium 3,553 (5.4)

25 FSSTI Index Singapore 3,217 (1.5) 63 NSEASI Index Kenya 95 (5.8)

26 DSEX Index Bangladesh 6,285 (1.6) 64 DAX Index Germany 15,387 (5.8)

27 JCI Index Indonesia 6,940 (1.8) 65 KOSPI Index South Korea 2,465 (5.9)

28 ATX Index Austria 3,168 (2.0) 66 MEXBOL Index Mexico 50,875 (6.5)

29 BELEX15 Index Serbia 887 (2.2) 67 VNINDEX Index Vietnam 1,154 (6.7)

30 SOFIX Index Bulgaria 756 (2.4) 68 IPSA Index Chile 5,833 (7.0)

31 BLOM Index Lebanon 1,779 (2.4) 69 TUSISE Index Tunisia 8,458 (7.7)

32 MSM30 Index Oman 4,678 (2.5) 70 ISEQ Index Ireland 8,416.6 (8.2)

33 SHSZ300 Index China 3,690 (2.5) 71 SET Index Thailand 1,471 (10.1)

34 NZSE Index New Zealand 1,712 (2.6) 72 ASE Index Greece 1,209 (10.1)

35 TWSE Index Taiwan 16,354 (2.8) 73 WIG20 Index Poland 1,916 (10.9)

36 HSI Index Hong Kong 17,810 (3.0) 74 ICEXI Index Iceland 1,931 (11.5)

37 PX Index Czech Republic 1,349 (3.0) 75 MERVAL Index Argentina 562,569 (13.9)

38 KFX Index Denmark 2,124 (3.0)

Source (s): Bloomberg, AHL Research

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 Detailed Report
Pakistan Equity Market
PSX Performance Sep 2023 October 2, 2023
Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) is (are) principally responsible for preparation of this report. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the
personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject security (ies) or sector (or economy), and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. In addition, we currently do not have any interest (financial or
otherwise) in the subject security (ies). Furthermore, compensation of the Analyst(s) is not determined nor based on any other service(s) that AHL is offering. Analyst(s) are not
subject to the supervision or control of any employee of AHL’s non-research departments, and no personal engaged in providing non-research services have any influence or
control over the compensatory evaluation of the Analyst(s).
Equity Research Ratings
Arif Habib Limited (AHL) uses three rating categories, depending upon return form current market price, with Target period as June-2024 for Target Price. In addition, return
excludes all type of taxes. For more details, kindly refer the following table;

Rating Description
BUY Upside* of subject security(ies) is more than +15% from last closing of market price(s)
HOLD Upside* of subject security(ies) is between -15% and +15% from last closing of market price(s)
SELL Upside* of subject security(ies) is less than -15% from last closing of market price(s)
* Upside for Power Generation Companies is upside plus dividend yield.

Equity Valuation Methodology

AHL Research uses the following valuation technique(s) to arrive at the period end target prices;
➢ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
➢ Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
➢ Sum of the Parts (SoTP)
➢ Justified Price to Book (JPTB)
➢ Reserved Base Valuation (RBV)

Risks
The following risks may potentially impact our valuations of subject security (ies);
➢ Market risk
➢ Interest Rate Risk
➢ Exchange Rate (Currency) Risk

Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Research analysts at Arif Habib Limited (AHL). This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or
sale of any security. This publication is intended only for distribution to the clients of the Company who are assumed to be reasonably sophisticated investors that understand
the risks involved in investing in equity securities. The information contained herein is based upon publicly available data and sources believed to be reliable. While every care
was taken to ensure accuracy and objectivity, AHL does not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. In particular, the report takes no
account of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of investors. The information given in this document is as of the date of this report and there can
be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. AHL reserves the right to
make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. However, AHL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. AHL
is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to its client and would be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries. Past
performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis
for any investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such investigation as it deems
necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should
consult his or her own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. AHL or any of its affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that
may be arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.

Disclosure required under Research Analyst Regulations, 2015:

In order to avoid any conflict of interest, we hereby disclosed that;
Arif Habib Limited (AHL) has shareholding in NBP, BOP, MEBL, FCCL and UNITY.

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