Sardar Patel Institute of Technology

Bhavan’s Campus, Munshi Nagar, Andheri (W), Mumbai : 400058, India

(Autonomous College of Affiliated to University of Mumbai)

End Semester Examination

December 2022
Maxi Marks : 100 Duration : 3 hours
Class : SY Semester : III
Course code: MA203 Branch : CE/CSE
Name of the course : Probability and Statistics

Q No Question Max CO BL
Marks

Q1(i) A student appears in the examinations of four subjects Biology, Chemistry, 1 3

Physics and Mathematics. Suppose that the probabilities of the student
clearing examinations in these subjects are 1/2 , 1/3 , 1/4 and 1/5 ,
respectively. Assuming that the performances of the student in four subjects
are independent, find the probability that the student will clear
examination(s) of
(a) all the subjects; 01
(b) no subject; 01
(c) exactly one subject; 02
(d) exactly two subjects; 04
(e) at least one subject. 02
Answer:
(a)The required probability is P(BCPM)=P(B)⋅P(C)⋅P(P)⋅P(M)=1/120 using
independence.=1/120
(b) The required probability is P(BCCCPCMC)=P(BC)⋅P(CC)⋅P(PC)⋅P(MC) which can
be calculated from given data = 1/5
(c) The required probability is
C C C C C C C C C C C C C
P(BC P M )+P(B CP M )+P(B C PM )+P(B C P M C) which can again be
computed easily using independence. = 5/12
(d) The required probability is
C C C C C C C C C C C C
P(B C PM)+P(B CP M)+P(BC P M)+P(BC PM )+P(BC PM )+P(BCP M )=7/24
(e) The required probability is 1−P(clear no subject) which can be computed
using (b).=0.8
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Q1(ii) A secretary types three letters and the three corresponding envelopes. In a 05
hurry, he places at random one letter in each envelope. What is the
probability that at least one letter is in the correct envelope?
Answer:
For 3 objects this is fairly trivial, as you can simply inspect each combination:
123: all letters are in the correct envelope
132: letter #1 is in the correct envelope
213: letter #3 is in the correct envelope
231: no letter is in the correct envelope
312: no letter is in the correct envelope
321: letter #2 is in the correct envelope
 In 4 out of 6 combinations, there is at least one letter in the correct envelope.
Hence the probability of having at least one letter in the correct envelope is
4/6.
(Any other correct approach which brings the same answer will also work.)
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Q1(iii) Consider four coding machines M1, M2, M3 and M4 producing binary codes 05
0 and 1. The machine M1 produces codes 0 and 1 with respective
probabilities 1/4 and 3/4 . The code produced by machine Mk is fed into
machine Mk+1 (k = 1, 2, 3) which may either leave the received code
unchanged or may change it. Suppose that each of the machines M2, M3 and
M4 change the code with probability 3/4 . Given that the machine M4 has
produced code 1, find the conditional probability that the machine M1
produced code 0.(Answer to 3 decimals only)
Answer:
we want P(M1=0|M4=1),
There are many approach to calculate answer I will discuss only one,
P(M1=0)=P(M10)= ¼
Probability that machine 2 to 4 change input are
P(M2C)=P(M3C)=P(M4C)=¾
Probability that machine 2 to 4 do not change input are
P(M2NC)=P(M3NC)=P(M4NC)= 1-¾ = ¼

P(M1=0∩M4=1)=P(M10M2CM3NCM4NC)+P(M10M2NCM3CM4NC)+P(M10M2NCM3NCM
C 0 C C C
4 )+ P(M1 M2 M3 M4 )
=(¼*¾*¼*¼)+(¼*¼*¾*¼)+(¼*¼*¼*¾)+ (¼*¾*¾*¾)
=36/256=0.14

P(M4=1) = M1 is 0 and M4 is 1 + M1 is 1 and M4 is 1

P(M4=1) = 0.14 + (¾ *¼*¼*¼)+( ¾*¾*¾*¼)+( ¾*¾*¼*¾)+ ( ¾*¼*¾*¾)
P(M4=1) =0.14+0.328=0.468
P(M1=0∩M4=1)/ P(M4=1) = 0.14/0.468 = 0.299 or 0.3

Q2 (i) An instructor who taught two sections of engineering statistics last term, the 2 3
first with 20 students and the second with 30, decided to assign a term
project. After all projects had been turned in, the instructor randomly
ordered them before grading. Consider the first 15 graded projects.
(a) What is the probability that exactly 10 of these are from the second 01
section?
(b) What is the probability that at least 10 of these are from the second 03
section?
(c) What is the probability that at least 10 of these are from the same section? 03
(d) What are the mean value and standard deviation of the number among
these 15 that are from the second section? 02
(e) What is the mean value and standard deviation of the number of projects
not among these first 15 that are from the second section? 01
Answer:
(a)
(b)

(c)
(d)

(e)
 = (15/49)*21*(20/50)
= 2.5714

This one can also be solved using binomial.

 (e) Similarly Mean=21
Standard deviation is 2.897
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The cdf of continuous random variable X is
F(x) = 0 x <− 5,
2
Q2(ii) = (x + 5) /144 − 5 < x < 7,
= 1 x >= 7
(a) What is f(x)?
(b) What is E|X|?
(c) What is Var|X|?
04
(d) What is E|X3|?
02
Answer:
02
02

OR
Let X be a discrete random variable with the following PMF
p(X) = 0.1 for X=0.2
= 0.2 for X=0.4
Q2(ii) = 0.2 for X=0.5
= 0.3 for X=0.8
= 0.2 for X=1
=0 Otherwise
(a) Is it a valid PMF? Justify.
(b) What is the range of random variable X?
(c)Find P(X≤0.5)
(d) Find P(0.25<X<0.75) 01
(e)Find P(X=0.2|X<0.6) 01
Answer: 02
(a) The summation of p(x) will result in 1 and hence it is valid PMF. 02
(b) X={0.2,0.4,0.5,0.8,1}. 04
(c)
 (d)

(e)

Q3 Each student has to measure two liquids in test tubes, sulphuric acid and 2 3
other oxalic acid. Each test tube has a maximum capacity of 30, and should
contain 26 ml of acid (each i.e. 26 ml of sulphuric acid in test tube X, and 26
ml of oxalic acid in test tube Y)
f(x, y) = C(X2+ Y2) 20<= X, Y<=30
= 0 otherwise
(a) Find the value of C 04
(b) What is the probability that both test tubes are underfilled 02
(c) The probability that the test tube liquids differ by utmost 2 02
(d) Determine the marginal probability of test tube X. 02
Answer:
(a)
(b)

(c)

(d)
Q4(a) A state environmental study concerning the number of scrap-tires 10 3 3
accumulated per tire dealership during the past year was conducted. The
null hypothesis is Ho: 𝜇 = 2500 and the research hypothesis is H: 𝜇 ≠ 2500,
where p represents the mean number of scrap-tires per dealership in the
state. For a random sample of 85 dealerships, the mean is 2750 and the
standard deviation is 950. Conduct the hypothesis test at the 5% level of
significance. Use the p value approach to test the hypothesis
Solution:

A study in 1992 established the mean commuting distance for workers in a

certain city to be 15 miles. Because of the westward spread of the city, it is
hypothesized that the current mean commuting distance exceeds 15 miles.
A traffic engineer wishes to test the hypothesis that the mean commuting
Q4(b) distance for workers in this city is greater than 15 miles. The decision is 10
made to reject the null hypothesis if the mean of a sample of 49 randomly
selected commuting distances is more than 2.5 standard errors above the
mean established in 1992. The standard deviation of the sample is found to
equal 3.5 miles.
a) Give the null and alternative hypothesis for this scenario
b) Give the rejection and nonrejection regions.
c) Suppose the true value of 𝜇 is 16.5. What is the probability that this
test procedure will not result in the rejection of the null
hypothesis?
Solution:
a. (2 M)

b. (4M)
 c. (4M)

Q5a) Is gender independent of education level? Perform Chi-Square test and find 10 3
out. A random sample of 395 people were surveyed and each person was
asked to report the highest education level they obtained. Level of
significance=.05. The data that resulted from the survey is summarized in the
following table:

High Bachelors Masters Ph.d. Total

School

Female 60 54 46 41 201

Male 40 44 53 57 194

Total 100 98 99 98 395

Soln:

Here's the table of expected counts: (5M)

High School Bachelors Masters Ph.d. Total

Female 50.886 49.868 50.377 49.868 201

Male 49.114 48.132 48.623 48.132 194

Total 100 98 99 98 395

So, working this out,

χ2=(60−50.886)250.886+⋯+(57−48.132)248.132=8.006 (2M)

The critical value of χ2 with 3 degree of freedom is 7.815 (2M).

Since 8.006 > 7.815, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that
the education level depends on gender at a 5% level of significance.
(1M)
Q5b A monitor issues a warning signal when an action is needed as part of a 10 4 3
production process. The interval, 𝑋 hours, between successive signals
follows an exponential distribution with parameter 0.08.
(i) Find the probability that the interval between the next two signals is:
a. Between 10 and 20 hours;
b. Less than two hours;
c. Longer than 50 hours.
(ii) State the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between
successive signals.
(iii) Following a warning signal, what is the longest time the production
process could be left unsupervised whilst ensuring the probability of
missing the next signal is less than 0.01?

OR
The amount of time, in minutes, that a person must wait for a 10
bus is uniformly distributed between zero and 15 minutes,
inclusive.
a. What is the probability that a person waits fewer than 12.5
minutes?
b. On the average, how long must a person wait? Find the
mean, μ, and the standard deviation, σ.
c. Ninety percent of the time, the minutes a person must wait
falls below what value?

Soln:
Q6 The number of hours spent per week viewing TV, y, and the number of years 10 5 3
of education, x, were recorded for 10 randomly selected individuals. The
results are given in the table below.. In addition, this table gives
computations needed in finding bo and bl. Find the least-squares Regression
line for these data

X Y

12 10

14 9

11 15

16 8

16 5

18 4

12 20

20 4

10 16

12 15

Soln:
For official use only (not for students)

CO Number CO statement Marks

allotted

1 Familiarize with basic probability axioms, rules and their applicability. 20

2 Identify the characteristics of various discrete and continuous distributions. 30

3 Find unbiased and efficient estimates using estimation theory. 20

4 Test the hypothesis for means and variances using ‘t’& F; chi-square 20
distribution tests.

5 Find Correlation and Regression and fit different types of curves 10

PI chart for percentage CO marks