GlucoSight

Is it possible to predict diabetes to start treatment

on time?

Team 4
Sri Emkay Iris Wang Kevin Wang Natalia Shipkova Gino Arevalo
 Problem. Impact. Business Model
Problem
Adults aged 18 years or older had
diabetes but were undiagnosed
8.5 M ~23% of adults were undiagnosed
(nih)
Business Model / Goal
Predicting whether a person has diabetes based on certain health
characteristics. It is crucial for patients, healthcare providers, and
insurance companies to prevent and manage disease effectively.

GlucoSight
US adults – over a third – have • General public • Further
prediabetes, and more than 8 in 10 takes quick • Instant investigation
96 M of them don't know they have it
questionnaire processing of
pre-test
and on-time
treatment
(cdc)
Healthcare
Users
Two-sided
Providers
Prediabetes and type platform
2 diabetes are preventable. About 9 in
90% 10 cases in the U.S. can be avoided by We are building a platform that enables us to tap into an abundant
making lifestyle changes supply of prevention and treatment services and reduce the marginal
cost of servicing users once the prediction model is trained
 Data & Model introduction

Source of data Model introduction

• Data: Kaggle Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset Decision Tree

• CSV of the dataset available on Kaggle for the • Popular ML algorithm used for classification and regression tasks
year 2015 was used: • It recursively splits data into subsets based on feature values and
makes predictions in leaf nodes based on majority class or average
target value.
70,692 Survey responses • Handles non-linear relationships, works with categorical and
numerical data
50- 50 split Respondents (no/yes) diabetes
XGBoost
21 Feature variables • It is an optimized implementation of the gradient boosting algorithm,
which is an ensemble learning technique that combines multiple
0: No diabetes weak models (usually decision trees) to create a stronger model.
Target variable
1: diabetes • High predictive accuracy and computational efficiency - one of the
most popular ML algorithms for structured data. It is also good to
use both classification and regression problems
 The Decision Tree Model
Dataset
We use all variables from Kaggle
• Split the data with 80/20.
• <10% data has heart disease,
stroke, and heavy alcohol
consumption.
• >70% data that do exercise, eat
fruit and veggies.
Highest info gain Confusion Matrix
The top 3 feature vectors: • 73.82% accuracy
• High blood pressure • ROC AUC at 0.8123
• BMI We might consider trading higher true
• high cholesterol positive with higher false positive, since it
can be risky if the patient is unaware of
Female with better general health is
less likely to get diabetes. diabetes condition.
 Feature Selection for XGBoost
Features we will remove
• Fruits, AnyHealthcare, NoDocbccost
and sex are least correlated with
Diabetes.
• At the Chi Squared Test the scores
from these values are very low.

Features used for model

• HighBP, HighChol, BMI, smoker,
stroke, HeartDiseaseorAttack,
PhysActivity, Veggies, MentHlth ,
HvyAlcoholconsump, GenHlth ,
PhysHlth, Age, Education, Income and
DiffWalk have a significant correlation
with Diabetes.
Chi
Squared
Test Scores
 The XGBoost has 88% accuracy, where MentHlth, GenHlth, and Education have the
highest reduction in the loss function as feature vectors
Dataset: Confusion Matrix:
70/30 Split, Healthier group 88% Accuracy, ROC AUC = 0.92
We use feature selection based on By analyzing the confusion matrix, we have
correlation analysis to run XGBoost a decent percentage of 88% accuracy.
only on the important variables from While we have ROC AUC at 0.92, we might
Kaggle dataset and split the data with consider trading higher true positive with
70/30. The dataset is a relative higher false positive, since it can be risky if
healthier group, where <10% data has the patient is unaware of diabetes
heart disease, stroke, and heavy condition.
alcohol consumption.

High blood pressure, BMI, and
cholesterol are the most
significant predictors of diabetes
Focus on educating users about the
importance of acknowledging and managing
these factors to reduce their risk of developing
diabetes. This can be achieved by partnering
with firms that offer prevention and treatment
services for these conditions
Model - Insights
Regular exercise and a healthy
diet are key preventative
measures against diabetes
Emphasize the importance of regular exercise
and a healthy diet as key drivers in preventing
diabetes. We can partner with firms that offer
personalized nutrition plans, healthy foods, or
exercise programs, as well as provide users
with educational content on the benefits of a
healthy lifestyle
False positives are more
acceptable than false negatives
Not detecting diabetes can be severe. It
would be more acceptable to have false
positives (predicting diabetes when the user
does not have it) than false negatives (failing
to predict diabetes when the user has it).
Sensitivity over specificity: to minimize false
negatives and ensure that users receive
timely and appropriate care.
 How the model can be improved

Collect more data

• We can explore other years of CDC data, data from other public health agencies, or related datasets from academic
resources, then we can preprocess data and EDA analysis, to provide a more comprehensive and diverse dataset,
which may lead to improved prediction accuracy

Feature selection and feature engineering

• Now, we try to calculate the correlation between x and the target variable, then drop some low-correlation features
• We can use Lasso regression, feature importance, etc. to choose features that have more prediction power, so it can
improve the model performance

Fine-tuning the models of both Decision Tree and XGBoost

• Here, for both the decision tree and XGBoost model, we use the default parameters, if we can tune the
hyperparameters of models can significantly impact the accuracy of the model. We can experiment with different
values of hyperparameters using techniques like grid search, randomized search, or Bayesian optimization to find the
optimal combination of hyperparameters that improves the model's accuracy.
DEMO
CORPORATE PRESENTATION

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