TREND EQUATION

Parameter a0 informs about theoretical value of studied variable in period number 0

Parameter a1 informs about the number of units of the studied variable was decreasing or
increasing on average from one period to the next

Standard error of the estimate

Standard error of the estimate informs what is the average error when we estimate the
variable using the trend equation

Coefficient of nondetermnation

Coefficient of nondetermination informs what part of the total variation of dependent variable
is unexplained by the trend line using independent variable

Coefficient of determnation

𝑑=1−(∑▒(𝑦_𝑖−𝑦_𝑖′)^2 )/(∑▒(𝑦_𝑖−𝑦 ̄ )^2 )

 𝑑=1−(∑▒(𝑦_𝑖−𝑦_𝑖′)^2 )/(∑▒(𝑦_𝑖−𝑦 ̄ )^2 )

Coefficient of nondetermination informs what part of the total variation of dependent variable
is explained by the trend line using independent variable
Production of avocado (thous. tons) in Indonesia in 2016-2022 was as follows:
Source Url: https://www.bps.go.id/indicator/55/62/7/production-of-fruits,html

Years Production ti yiti ti2 y't (yi-yi')2 (yi-yavg)2

(thous. tons) yi

2016 304.9 1 304.9 1 526.2571429 48999.0 48999.0

2017 363.1 2 726.2 4 526.2571429 26620.3 26620.3
2018 410.1 3 1230.3 9 526.2571429 13492.5 13492.5
2019 461.6 4 1846.4 16 526.2571429 4180.5 4180.5
2020 609.0 5 3045 25 526.2571429 6846.4 6846.4
2021 669.3 6 4015.8 36 526.2571429 20461.3
2022 865.8 7 6060.6 49 526.2571429 115289.4 115289.4
SUM 3683.8 28.0 17229.2 140.0 235889.3

a) present this series graphically;

b) determine the parameters of the trend equation and calculate the standard error of the estimate;
c) trend equation show on the chart;
d) calculate coefficient of nondetermination and coefficient of determination;
e) make a forecast of production of avocado in Indonesia in 2024.

b) Ist way IInd way Interpretation "a0":

a0= 526.257142857 Something's wrong! 169.9714286 Theorotically value the production o
a1= 0 89.07142857 (year 2015) w
Interpretation "a1":
Sy'= 0 Something's wrong! 52.43112489 The production of avocado in Indon
per one year on
d) Interpretation "Sy'":
yavg= 526.3 Damn skippy! Estimating the avocado production
ϕ2= 0 6.9% be mistak
d= 0.0% 0 94.2% Interpretation "ϕ2":
5,8% of the total variation of avoca
e) th
t*= 9 Interpretation "d":
y'2024= 526.257142857 Something's wrong! 971.61429 94,2% of the total variation of the av
th
Interpretation "y'2024":
We estimated that the avocado pr
thousand ton
 Chart Title
1000.0

900.0

800.0

700.0

600.0

500.0

400.0

300.0

200.0

100.0

0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
 𝑑=1−(∑▒(𝑦_𝑖−𝑦_𝑖′)^2 )/(∑▒(𝑦_𝑖−𝑦 ̄

cally value the production of avocado in Indonesia in period number zero

(year 2015) was 169,97 thousand tons

duction of avocado in Indonesia was increasingly by 89,07 thousand tons

per one year on average in studied period

ng the avocado production in Indonesia using the trend equation we can

be mistaken by 52,34 percent

the total variation of avocado production in Indonesia is unexplained by

the trend line

the total variation of the avocado production in Indonesia is explained by

the trend line
ation "y'2024":
mated that the avocado production in Indonesia in 2024 will be 971,61
thousand tons 52,43 thousand tons
)^2 )/(∑▒(𝑦_𝑖−𝑦 ̄ )^2 )
Production of apple (thous. tons) in Indonesia in 2013-2022 was as follows:
Source Url: https://www.bps.go.id/indicator/55/62/7/production-of-fruits,html
Production
Years (thous. tons) ti
yi
2013 1548.4 1
2014 1785.3 2
2015 1744.3 3
2016 2014.2 4
2017 2165.2 5
2018 2408.0 6
2019 2444.5 7
2020 2593.4 8
2021 2401.1 9
2022 2552.0 10
21656.4 55

a) present this series graphically;

b) determine the parameters of the trend equation and calculate the standard error of the estimate;
c) trend equation show on the chart;
d) calculate coefficient of nondetermination and coefficient of determination;
e) make a forecast of production of apple in Indonesia in 2024.
Please use statistical functions in excel

a) Interpretation "a0":
a0= 21656.4 Something's wrong!
a1= 0 Thereotically the
Interpretation "a1":
Sy'= 0

b) Interpretation "Sy'":
ϕ2= 0
d= 0
Interpretation "ϕ2":
c)
t*=
y'2021= 0 Interpretation "y'2024":
 Thereotically the apple production in Indonesia

ation "y'2024":