Indian Education Society’s

Management College and Research Centre, Mumbai

(FINAL EXAMINATION)

Date : 20/09/2019 Day: Friday Time: 10.30 am To 01.30 pm Duration: 3 Hrs.

Course : PGDM-2nd Year Sem.: IV Sub: Predictive Modeling Max. Marks: 60
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Instructions: 1) Question no 1 is compulsory
2) Remaining questions have internal choice.
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Q.1. Mr. Ankit has moved to Bangalore 10 months back. Bangalore is a big city with number
of roads tagged as one-way. You take a wrong turn and you are late by more than 20
minutes. Every single day he compare the time taken on different routes and choose the
best among all possible combinations.

Background: There are two alternate roads I take to hit the main road from my home.
Average speed on each of the road comes out around 30 km/hr. Let’s call the two roads
as road A and road B. Total distance one needs to travel on road A and road B is 1 km
and 1.3 km respectively to hit the same point on the main road . Note that, before the
two roads split, I see a signal (say Z) which is common to both the roads and hence does
not come in this calculation. See figure for clarifications.

a. What are the possible factors, I should consider to come up with the total time taken
on each road? 5 CO3

b. Which road should one take to reach the main road so as to minimize the time taken?
And what is the difference in total time taken by the two alternate routes? 5 CO2

Additional information : Recently, one of the junction (say, X) on road A got too
crowded and a traffic signal was installed on the same. The traffic signal was configured
for 80 seconds red and 20 seconds green. Let’s denote the seconds of signal as R1 R2 R3
… G1 G2 G3 . Here, R1 denotes 1 sec after signal switched to red.

c. Does it still makes sense to take road A, or to switch to road B provided the average
speed on the road A is still the same except the halt at signal? 5 CO3

Additional information: If I reach the signal at R1, I will be in the front rows to be
released once the signal turns green. Whereas, if I reach the signal at R80, I might have
to wait for some time even after signal turns green because the vehicles in the front
rows will block me for some seconds before I start. Let’s take some realistic guesses for
the wait time after signal turns green.
R1 – R 10 : 0 sec , R11-R20 : 3 sec , R21 – R60 : 10 sec, R61 – R80 : 15 sec, G1-G15 : 5 sec,
G15-G20 : 0 sec
d. Does it still makes sense to take road A, or to switch to road B provided the average
speed on the road A is still the same except the halt at signal? 5 CO2

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Q.2. a) What do you mean by Predictors? Explain Data Transformations for 5 CO1
Individual Predictors and Multiple Predictors.
5 CO1
b) For data Pre-processing under Predictive Modeling how to Deal with Missing
Values and find correlation between Predictors.
OR
Explain about the box cox transformation in regression models. 10 CO1

Q.3. Explain the process of Modeling Framework for Predictive analysis and how to measure 10 CO2
Modeling Longevity and Considerations
OR
When the predictions are actually used for business decisions or customer touchpoints
the real power comes. How Do You Know Your Model is Successful? Explain with the 10 CO2
help of example.
Q.4. Identify the following models as ARMA(p; q) models (watch out for parameter 10 CO3
redundancy), and determine whether they are causal and/or invertible:
(a) xt = :80xt-1 - :15xt-2 + wt - :30wt-1:
(b) xt = xt-1 -:50xt-2 + wt – wt-1:
OR
A time series model for global annual temperature . the data for the time series in this
analysis begin in 1856 and run through 1997 (n=142). The Measurements give the
typical deviation from degree Celsius (zero would be considered consistent with the
long run average.)

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 a) Use the estimated exponential smoothening given above and predict temperature 5 CO3
for the next 3 years (1998-2000)
b) Find 95% prediction intervals for the predictions of temperature in 1999. 5 CO3

Q.5. What are the advantages and Disadvantages of K fold cross validation relative to:
a) The validation Set approach? 5 CO2
b) LOOCV? 5 CO2
OR
a) What is Model theory and model fit statistics?
b) Discuss the Hosmer Lemeshow test and Error /Confusion matrix.

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