agronomy

Article
icle Consumers within the Spicy Pepper Supply Chain
onsumers within the Spicy Pepper Supply Chain
Jay Lillywhite * and Sunshine Tso
Lillywhite * and Sunshine Tso
Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, College of Agricultural, Consumer and
Environmental
Department of Agricultural Sciences,
Economics New MexicoBusiness,
and Agricultural State University,
College ofLas Cruces, NM
Agricultural, 88003, USA;
Consumer, and sntso@nmsu.edu
* Correspondence:
Environmental Sciences, lillywhi@nmsu.edu
New Mexico State University; Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA; sntso@nmsu.edu
* Correspondence: lillywhi@nmsu.edu
Abstract: “Spicy pepper” is a term used to describe a variety of “pungent” peppers, sometimes
Abstract: “Spicyreferred
pepper”toisasa term usedor
hot, chili, to chile.
describe
Thea USDA
varietyreports
of “pungent”
that thepeppers, sometimes
per capita re‐ of chile peppers has
availability
ferred to as hot, increased
chili, or chile.
more The USDA
than 100% reports
since that the per
the early capitaWhile
1980s. availability of chile peppers
the availability has
of spicy peppers has increased,
increased more than 100% since the early 1980s. While the availability of spicy peppers has in‐
easily accessible data regarding which varieties are consumed, how they are used by households,
creased, easily accessible data regarding which varieties are consumed, how they are used by house‐
and who is most likely to consume them is not available. This paper provides insights into U.S. spicy
holds, and who is most likely to consume them is not available. This paper provides insights into
pepper production and consumption as provided by a review of existing trade data and a survey of
U.S. spicy pepper production and consumption as provided by a review of existing trade data and
U.S. consumers.
a survey of U.S. consumers.

Keywords:
Keywords: ethnic ethnic food
food preferences; spicypreferences; spicy peppers; chile
peppers; chile

1. Introduction1. Introduction
The number ofThe number
people of people
originally originally
from other fromliving
countries otherincountries
the Unitedliving
States,in i.e.,
the United States, i.e.,
the “foreign-born” population as defined by the U.S.
the “foreign‐born” population as defined by the U.S. Census, was nearly 45 million in 2019Census, was nearly 45 million in





 [1]. The percentage of the foreign‐born population increased from a low of 5% in 1970 toa low of 5% in 1970
2019 [1]. The percentage of the foreign-born population increased from
nearly 14% in to
Citation: Lillywhite, J.; Tso, S.
nearly
2019. Today14%immigration
in 2019. Today immigration
accounts for 38% ofaccounts
the U.S.for 38% of the
population U.S. population growth
growth
tion: Lillywhite, J.; Tso, S. rate [2].
Consumers within the Spicy Pepper
Immigrants
rate to
[2]. the U.S. come
Immigrants from
to the many
U.S. different
come fromcountries
many for numerous
different reasons
countries for numerous reasons
sumers within the Spicy Pepper including
Supply Chain. Agronomy 2021, 11,
work, family,
including school,
work, and safety.
family, In
school, 2019,
and more than
safety. In 1 million
2019, morepeople
than coming
1 million people coming
ply Chain. Agronomy 2021, 11, x. from
2040. https://doi.org/10.3390/
more than 200
from countries
more than received
200 lawful
countries permanent
received resident
lawful status
permanent [3] (Figure
resident 1).
status [3] (Figure 1).
s://doi.org/10.3390/xxxxx
agronomy11102040
These individuals
Theselive throughout
individuals the
live U.S. [4].
throughout Immigration
the U.S. to the
[4]. U.S. has
Immigration resulted
to the in an
U.S. has resulted in an
increasingly diversified
increasinglypopulation.
diversified population.
demic Editors: Albert Ayeni and
Academic Editors: Albert Ayeni and
dewale Osipitan
O. Adewale Osipitan South America, 8.8%
Unknown, 0.1%
Oceania, 0.5% Africa, 10.8%
ived: 18 August 2021
Received: 18 August 2021
pted: 3 October 2021
Accepted: 3 October 2021
ished: 11 October 2021
Published: 11 October 2021

isher’s Note: MDPI stays neu‐ North America,

with regardPublisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral
to jurisdictional
35.9% Asia, 35.4%
with
ms in published regard
maps to jurisdictional claims in
and institu‐
al affiliations.published maps and institutional affil-
iations.
Europe, 8.5%

yright: © 2021 by the authors.

mitted for possible open access
ication underCopyright: © con‐
the terms and 2021 by the authors. Figure 1. Region of birth for people receiving lawful permanent resident status in 2019. Source:
Licensee
ns of the Creative MDPI,At‐Basel, Switzerland.
Commons
USDHS, 2019 [3].
tion (CC BY)This article
license is an openFigure
(https://cre‐ 1. Region
access article of birth for people receiving lawful permanent resident status in 2019. Source:
distributed under theUSDHS,
commons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 2019
terms and [3]. Immigrants often bring their cultures with them. Culture can be defined as “the
conditions of the Creative Commons distinctive ideas, customs, social behaviors, products, or way of life of a particular nation,
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
society, people, or period” [5]. Cultural habits or customs are often developed during
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
childhood and internalized such that they are difficult to change [6]. Cultures are often
4.0/).

onomy 2021, 11, x. https://doi.org/10.3390/xxxxx www.mdpi.com/journal/agronomy

Agronomy 2021, 11, 2040. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11102040 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/agronomy

Agronomy 2021, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 12

Agronomy 2021, 11, 2040

Immigrants often bring their cultures with them. Culture can be defined as “the dis‐ 2 of 11
tinctive ideas, customs, social behaviors, products, or way of life of a particular nation,
society, people, or period” [5]. Cultural habits or customs are often developed during
childhood
associated andwith
internalized such that
a population’s they
food are difficult
tastes to changeand
and preferences [6]. culinary
Cultures practices.
are often Other
associated
factors often linked to food preferences include religion, occupation (income), Other
with a population’s food tastes and preferences and culinary practices. geographical
factors
factorsoften linked to
(distance to food
foodpreferences
stores), age,include religion,
ethnicity, occupation
and health [7]. (income), geograph‐
ical factors (distance to food stores), age, ethnicity, and health [7].
Peppers, specifically spicy peppers, is a vegetable group common in many cultures.
Peppers, specifically spicy peppers, is a vegetable group common in many cultures.
The term “Spicy pepper” is used to describe a variety of “pungent” peppers, sometimes
The term “Spicy pepper” is used to describe a variety of “pungent” peppers, sometimes
referred to as hot, chili, or chile. The pungency of spicy peppers is most often measured
referred to as hot, chili, or chile. The pungency of spicy peppers is most often measured
using the Scoville scale created by Wilbur Scoville in 1912. The scale is a measure of how
using the Scoville scale created by Wilbur Scoville in 1912. The scale is a measure of how
many times a pepper sample is diluted with water until taste-test participants could no
many times a pepper sample is diluted with water until taste‐test participants could no
longer
longer feelfeel heat.
heat. TodayToday the heat
the heat of chile
of chile pepper pepper cultivars
cultivars rangesranges
from zerofromScoville
zero Scoville
Heat Heat
Units (SHU) to more than
Units (SHU) to more than 2 million SHU [8].2 million SHU [8].
Pepper
Pepper production
production and and consumption
consumption data reported
data reported by theby the USDA
USDA is commonly
is commonly re‐ re-
ported for two groups; (1) “peppers” or “Bell peppers” and
ported for two groups; (1) “peppers” or “Bell peppers” and (2) “chile peppers.” The chile (2) “chile peppers”. The chile
peppers
peppers areare represented
represented by aby a combined
combined group group of spicy
of spicy pepperpepper varieties
varieties and/orand/or
cultivars.cultivars.
Chile peppers are, or can be grown, in most U.S. states, although
Chile peppers are, or can be grown, in most U.S. states, although the majority of commer‐ the majority of commercial
cialchile
chilepepper
pepper production,
production, 100% 100%inin 2020,
2020, is centered
is centered in New
in New MexicoMexico and California.
and California. The The
production from these two states are generally long green chiles
production from these two states are generally long green chiles referred to as New‐Mex‐ referred to as New-Mexico
icotype
typechile
chile or
or Anaheim
Anaheim chile. chile.
PerPer capita
capita consumption
consumption of fresh
of fresh chile chile
peppers peppers has increased
has increased from justfromoverjustthree
over three
pounds
pounds per per
person in 1980
person in to more
1980 tothan
more seven
than pounds
sevenper personper
pounds in 2020 (Figure
person in 2).
2020While
(Figure 2).
per‐capita consumption
While per-capita has increased
consumption hassignificantly over the last 40
increased significantly years
over the(135%),
last 40the ma‐ (135%),
years
jority
theof the increased
majority of thedemand
increased hasdemand
been satisfied
has beenby imports.
satisfiedFigure 3 showsFigure
by imports. that over the
3 shows that
same
over 1980–2020
the same period, domestic
1980–2020 chile domestic
period, pepper production declined
chile pepper more thandeclined
production 50% (nearlymore than
75%50% from its peak
(nearly 75% in from
1992)itswhile
peak imports
in 1992) increased by moreincreased
while imports than 950%by [9].
more than 950% [9].

7
Pounds per person

6
Fresh
5

1 Dry
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020

Figure
Figure 2. Per
2. Per capita
capita chilechile pepper
pepper consumption,
consumption, 1980–2020.
1980–2020. Source:Source: USDA-ERS
USDA‐ERS [9]. [9].

The long-term decline in chile pepper production is the result of many factors includ-
ing domestic labor availability, cost differentials between chile pepper producing countries,
and profits for U.S. producers of chile and alternative crops. One way to encourage domes-
tic production is to identify ways the crop could be more profitable, including identifying
consumer willingness (and ability) to pay premiums for U.S.-grown chile peppers. Ad-
ditionally, little is known about chile pepper consumption as data that identifies which
varieties are consumed, how they are used by households, and who is most likely to
consume them is not widely available. This paper provides insights into U.S. spicy pepper
consumption gained via results from a nationwide panel survey.
Agronomy2021,
Agronomy 11,x 2040
2021,11, FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 12 3 of 11

2500

2000 Imports

Million Pounds
1500

1000
Production

500
Exports

Figure
Figure 3. Chile
3. Chile pepper
pepper production,
production, exports,
exports, and imports,
and imports, 1980–2020.
1980–2020. Source Source USDA-ERS
USDA‐ERS [9]. [9].

2. The
Materials anddecline
long‐term Methodsin chile pepper production is the result of many factors includ‐
2.1. Data
ing domestic labor availability, cost differentials between chile pepper producing coun‐
tries, andToprofits
betterfor U.S. producers
understand of chile and
the current alternative of
consumption crops. One
spicy way to encourage
peppers, specifically New
domestic production
Mexico-style chileis peppers,
to identifyin
ways
thethe cropa could
U.S., be morepanel
nationwide profitable, including
survey iden‐
was conducted in
tifying consumer willingness (and ability) to pay premiums for U.S.‐grown
July 2021. The survey instrument, created in the online survey program Qualtrics, was chile peppers.
Additionally,
administered littletoispanelists
known about chile pepper
managed by theconsumption as dataplatform
sample exchange that identifies whichCint. A
company
varieties are consumed, how they are used by households, and who is
total of 859 participants completed the survey after reading the human subjects’ most likely to con‐consent
sume them is not widely available. This paper provides insights into
information. Survey demographics and their U.S. Census counterparts are shown in U.S. spicy pepper
consumption
Table 1. gained via results from a nationwide panel survey.
A careful examination of the data in Table 1 shows some discrepancies between
2. Materials and Methods
survey participant percentages and U.S. population percentages in several demographic
2.1.categories.
Data For example, the survey under-sampled individuals in the West Census Region,
individuals understand
To better with a highthe current
school consumption
degree of Hispanics.
or less, and spicy peppers, specificallythe
Additionally, Newinvitation
Mexico‐style chile peppers, in the U.S., a nationwide panel survey was
to participate in the survey was sent to multiple panelists, with the first 859 conducted in July
panelists
2021. The survey
completing instrument,
the created in
survey included in the
theonline survey
analysis, i.e.,program Qualtrics,
the selection was admin‐was not
of participants
istered to panelists
completely managed
random. Dueby tothe sample
these exchange
factors, readersplatform companynot
are cautioned Cint.
to A totalinferences
make of
859about
participants completed the survey after reading the human subjects’ consent
the general population. Readers should consider the results as informative but not infor‐
mation. Surveyrepresenting
necessarily demographics and
the their
U.S. U.S. Census counterparts are shown in Table 1.
population.
Survey participants were asked to provide additional information, in addition to the
Table 1. Survey and U.S. population demographics.
general demographic information summarized in Table 1. Specifically, participants were
asked a series ofDemographic
questions about their diet, health, and shopping habits,
Survey as they
Census 1 related to
vegetable purchases.
Census Region (n = 850)
Participants were instructed “According to recommendations
Northeast 22.5% of the UDSA MyPlate
17.1%
Program, the average person should consume 3 cups 21.9%
Midwest of vegetables each20.8%
day. Do you, on a
typical day consume South less than the suggested amount of vegetables, consume
40.4% 38.3%the suggested
amount of vegetables, Westor consumer more than the suggested
15.3% amount of vegetables”?
23.9%
Slightly moreEducation
than one-half(n = (53%)
856) of the participants indicated they consumed less than the
recommended Highamount, one-third
school degree (34%) indicated they
or less consumed the 39.1%
27.5% suggested amount,
with the remaining 13% no
Some college, indicating
bachelorsthey consumed more than the recommended
31.2% 30.3% amount.
Four out of five participants
Bachelor’s degree (82.5%) indicated27.0%they were the primary
19.3% shopper in
their household.
Graduate Nine out of 10 participants
or professional degree indicated they “liked” vegetables
14.4% 11.3% in general.
Participants tended to consume
Sex (n = 858) fresh vegetables (54.7%) more than in frozen (23.7%),
canned (18.7%), and Femaledried (3.8%) forms. Participants were 50.6%also asked where
50.7%they tended to
purchase fresh vegetables. A majority (68%) of the participants indicated they purchased
fresh vegetables from traditional supermarkets. In total, 13% indicated they purchased
Agronomy 2021, 11, 2040 4 of 11

fresh vegetables from specialized food stores, 10% indicated they purchased vegetables
from convenience stores, and 5% direct from farmers (farmers’ markets or roadside stands).
Participants were instructed, “According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human
Services, a healthy eating pattern includes a variety of vegetables from all of the subgroups,
fruits (especially whole fruits), grains (at least half which are whole-grain), fat-free or
low-fat dairy, a variety of protein foods (that can include animal-based proteins, legumes,
nuts, seeds, and soy products), and oils”. Participants were then asked how consistent their
diet was with the described healthy eating pattern. Slightly over half (54%) indicated their
eating patterns were consistent with the guidelines and about one in five (19%) indicated
their diet was inconsistent with the guidelines.

Table 1. Survey and U.S. population demographics.

Demographic Survey Census 1

Census Region (n = 850)
Northeast 22.5% 17.1%
Midwest 21.9% 20.8%
South 40.4% 38.3%
West 15.3% 23.9%
Education (n = 856)
High school degree or less 27.5% 39.1%
Some college, no bachelors 31.2% 30.3%
Bachelor’s degree 27.0% 19.3%
Graduate or professional
14.4% 11.3%
degree
Sex (n = 858)
Female 50.6% 50.7%
Male 49.1% 49.2%
Prefer not to answer 0.3% 0.1%
Race (n = 858)
American Indian or Alaska
3.1% 0.9%
Native
Asian 6.6% 5.8%
Black or African American 10.3% 13.2%
Native Hawaiian or Pacific
0.7% 0.2%
Islander
White or Caucasian 76.1% 74.2%
Other 3.1% 5.7%
Hispanic (n = 858) 11.9% 18.4%
Household income (n = 858)
Less than USD 24,000 20.3% 18.1%
USD 25,000–49,000 27.9% 20.3%
USD 50,000–99,000 35.4% 30.2%
USD 100,000–149,999 10.7% 15.7%
USD 150,000 or more 5.7% 15.7%
Age (n = 858)
Under 25 years of age 11.0% 11.9%
25–34 years of age 17.6% 17.9%
35–44 years of age 15.9% 16.4%
45–54 years of age 18.3% 16.0%
55–64 years of age 14.1% 16.6%
65–74 years of age 18.5% 12.4%
75 years of age or older 4.7% 8.8%
1 U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey. 2019 ACE 1-Year Estimates.

Similar to the question related to healthy diets, participants were instructed “The U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services recommends that adults should do at least
150 min (2.5 h) per week of moderate-intensity aerobic physical activity. Alternatively, they
recommend that an adult can do 75 min (1.25 h) per week of vigorous-intensity aerobic
Agronomy 2021, 11, 2040 5 of 11

activity” and then asked if their exercise habits were consistent with the statement. Just
under half (47%) indicated that they exercised less than the recommended amount.

2.2. Methods
Participant’s responses related to their spicy pepper consumption were explored
descriptively using graphs and simple statistics such as chi-square goodness of fit tests. The
importance of factors that influenced the likelihood that a survey participant indicated they
frequently purchased (and assumed consumed) spicy peppers was examined using a binary
logit regression model, a regression model that assumes errors follow a logistic distribution.
Logistic regression models are used to predict the likelihood or probability of a
categorical dependent variable, e.g., a dependent variable that can take on one of two
values (binary logit model). In this case, the regression model is used to predict the
likelihood or probability that an individual purchases spicy peppers frequently, where
frequent is defined as making a purchase at least once per month (the dependent variable)
using various independent or explanatory variables associated with the participant, e.g.,
age, sex, and race or ethnicity. The probability is given as:

P_i = 1/(1 + exp(z_iˆ’ β)) (1)

where
z_iˆ’ β = β_0 + β_1 X_1i + β_2 X_2i + · · · +β_n X_ni (2)
where the Xs represents explanatory variables associated with an individual participant
and the βs represent parameters that describe the influence of the explanatory variables
on the probability that an individual purchases spicy peppers frequently. The specific
variables used in the model are presented in Table 2. A maximum likelihood procedure is
used to estimate the parameters.

Table 2. Explanatory variables for the binary logit model.

Variable Name % Explanation

Dependent variable that equals one if the participant indicated that they purchase
Frequent Consumer 67.3
spicy peppers in any form at least once per month.
Equals one if a participant indicated that they consume the USDA My Plate Program
Vegetable Eater 47.0
recommended amount or more of vegetables.
Equals one if a participant indicated that their diet is consistent or very consistent
Healthy Diet 18.6
with U.S. Dept. of Health and Human guidance.
Foodie 40.5 Equals one if a participant indicated that they considered themselves “foodie”.
Equals one if a participant indicated that they “try to use unique, gourmet, new, or
Food Explorer 33.0
exotic ingredients in my cooking”.
Age_2 48.3 Equals one if a participant indicated that their age was between 35 and 64 years.
Age_3 23.2 Equals one if a participant indicated that their age was 65 years or greater.
Equals one if a participant indicated that their household income was less than
Income_1 20.3
USD 25,000.
Equals one if a participant indicated that their household income was between
Income_2 27.8
USD 25,000 and 49,999.
Equals one if a participant indicated that their household income was between
Income_3 35.4
USD 50,000 and 99,999.
Equals one if a participant indicated that their household income was between
Income_4 10.7
USD 100,000 and 149,999.
Bachelor Plus 41.2 Equals one if a participant indicated that they held a bachelor’s or higher degree.
Minority 24.0 Equals one if a participant indicated that they were not Caucasian.
Agronomy 2021, 11, 2040 6 of 11

Table 2. Cont.

Variable Name % Explanation

Hispanic 12.0 Equals one if a participant indicated that they were Hispanic.
Equals one if a participant indicated that they had lived in the southwest, i.e.,
Southwest Ties 21.5
Arizona, New Mexico, or Texas.
Census Northeast 22.2 Equals one if participant indicated that they lived in the Northeast Census Region.
Census West 15.1 Equals one if participant indicated that they lived in the West Census Region.
Census South 39.9 Equals to one if participant indicated that they lived in the South Census Region.

The logistic model described above was used to estimate the effects that various
survey participant attributes have on their purchase of spicy peppers. The dependent
variable was created using participant responses to questions about the frequency of spicy
pepper purchases. Specifically, if a participant indicated they purchased spicy peppers in
any form (fresh, dried, canned, or frozen) they were classified as “frequent” spicy pepper
consumers, and the dependent variable was set equal to one. Otherwise they were classified
as non-frequent spicy pepper consumers and the dependent variable was set equal to zero.
Approximately two-thirds of participants (67.3%) indicated that they purchased spicy
peppers at least once per month.
Independent variables, all binary dummy variables, used to explain spicy pepper
consumption included self-reported characteristics including participant vegetable con-
sumption, the importance of price, diet, foodie, willingness to explore new foods, age,
income, monthly budget for food purchases, education, race, Hispanic ethnicity, having
lived in the southwest, and current residence, i.e., the Census region where they live.
Table 2 presents a summary of the variables and how they were developed for use in
the model. The percentage column indicated the number of participants who fit into the
category, e.g., 40.5% of participants indicated that they consider themselves a “foodie”.

3. Results and Discussion

3.1. Descriptive Analysis
Survey participants were provided a list (with pictures) of common spicy pepper
varieties/cultivars in three different categories, fresh, dried, and other processed (canned
or frozen). Table 3 shows the varieties/cultivars presented to the survey participants
and the percent of participants indicating that they had purchased the pepper in the
last three months. More than 95% (95.6%) of survey participants indicated that they
had consumed some form of spicy pepper in the last three months. The proportion of
participants who consumed spicy peppers in the last three months was compared to
the demographic categories in Table 2. Using a chi-square goodness of fit test, the null
hypothesis that proportions of spicy pepper consumption were independent between each
of the demographic categories in Table 2 could not be rejected.
Survey participants who indicated they did not eat spicy peppers in any form were
asked to identify why they did not. Seven possible reasons were provided to participants
in addition to an opportunity to provide additional reasons. Participants were allowed to
identify more than one reason if desired. The 38 participants who indicated that they did not
consume spicy peppers in the last three months provided 122 reasons. The most common
reasons provided (from the seven provided) by participants for not consuming spicy
peppers were that they were “too spicy or hot” and they did not like the taste (Figure 4).
Several of the “Other” additional reasons offered by participants were associated with
digestive issues caused by spicy peppers.
 Agronomy 2021, 11, 2040 7 of 11

Table 3. Spicy pepper consumption in the last three months.

Category/Variety Number Percent

Fresh
Jalapeno 541 63.0%
New Mexico-type long green
225 26.2%
chile pepper
Habanero 206 24.0%
Poblano 188 21.9%
Serrano 167 19.4%
Other 148 17.2%
Dried
Paprika powder 472 54.9%
Cayenne Powder 406 47.3%
Chile flakes 357 41.6%
Dried red chile pepper 341 39.7%
Dried New Mexico-type long
118 13.7%
red chile pepper
Dried serrano pepper 105 12.2%
Ancho 58 6.8%
Other 89 10.4%
Other Processed
Canned chopped green chile 283 32.9%
Frozen chopped green chile 205 23.9%
Agronomy 2021, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW Chipotle peppers in adobo sauce 166 19.3%
8 of 12
Frozen red chile puree 151 17.6%
Other 144 16.8%

They are too spicy or hot

Don't like the taste

They cost too much

Don't know how to use them

I don't cook at home

I've never tried them before

They are not readily available where I live

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Percent of reasons identified/provided

Figure 4. Factors that influenced participants to choose not to consume spicy peppers.
Figure 4. Factors that influenced participants to choose not to consume spicy peppers.
Survey participants were asked about the importance of nine characteristics of spicy
Survey participants
peppers were asked
in their decision about the (price,
to purchase importance of nineregion,
production characteristics of spicy
packaging, and production
peppers in their decision to purchase (price, production region, packaging, and produc‐
system, e.g., organic/traditional) and consume (taste, freshness, color, size, and health
tion system, e.g., organic/traditional) and consume (taste, freshness, color, size, and health
characteristics) the products. The percentage of participants indicating that an individual
characteristics) the products. The percentage of participants indicating that an individual
characteristic was important or very important to their decision to purchase or consume
characteristic was important or very important to their decision to purchase or consume
peppers ranged from 84% to 42% (Figure 5). As might be expected, taste and freshness were
peppers ranged from 84% to 42% (Figure 5). As might be expected, taste and freshness
rated high in terms of importance in the participant’s decision-making process. Almost
were rated high in terms of importance in the participant’s decision‐making process. Al‐
two-thirds
most two‐thirds of of participants
participants (61.2%)
(61.2%) rated
rated understanding
understanding the health
the health characteristics
characteristics of of spicy
peppers third as either important or very important to the decision
spicy peppers third as either important or very important to the decision to consume spicyto consume spicy
peppers. Price, a clear economic variable, was
peppers. Price, a clear economic variable, was rated fourth. rated fourth.

90%
80%
ent of Participants

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
 characteristics) the products. The percentage of participants indicating that an individual
characteristic was important or very important to their decision to purchase or consume
peppers ranged from 84% to 42% (Figure 5). As might be expected, taste and freshness
were rated high in terms of importance in the participant’s decision‐making process. Al‐
most two‐thirds of participants (61.2%) rated understanding the health characteristics of
Agronomy 2021, 11, 2040 8 of 11
spicy peppers third as either important or very important to the decision to consume spicy
peppers. Price, a clear economic variable, was rated fourth.

90%
80%

Percent of Participants
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Figure
Figure 5. The
5. The importance
importance of spicy
of spicy pepper
pepper characteristics.
characteristics.

Associated
Associated with
with the the health
health characteristics
characteristics of spicy
of spicy peppers,
peppers, surveysurvey participants
participants were were
provided
provided sixsix potential
potential health-related
health‐related claims
claims that be
that may may be made
made about about spicy peppers.
spicy peppers. The The
claims included [10–12]:
claims included [10–12]:
 • Metabolize
Metabolize glucose.
glucose. Research
Research suggests
suggests that chile
that chile peppers
peppers assist
assist in in weight
weight loss. loss.
Agronomy 2021, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 12
 • Improve
Improve insulin
insulin sensitivity.
sensitivity. Research
Research suggests
suggests that that
chilechile peppers
peppers improve
improve bloodblood sugar
andand
sugar insulin reaction.
insulin reaction.
• Anti-inflammatory. Chile peppers increase blood flow to tissues and reduce vascular

plaque buildup. Anti‐inflammatory. Chile peppers increase blood flow to tissues and reduce vascu‐
• lar plaquepeppers
Boost your body. Chile buildup.are full of vitamins A, B, and E.
 Boost your body. Chile peppers are full of vitamins A, B, and E.
• Help fight infections. Chile peppers are powerful at slowing the growth of common
 Help fight infections. Chile peppers are powerful at slowing the growth of common
food-borne illnesses.
food‐borne illnesses.
• High in antioxidants.
 High inChile peppersChile
antioxidants. helppeppers
remove freeremove
help radicals
freefrom the from
radicals body.the body.
Participants were asked towere
Participants rateasked
the importance of the claims
to rate the importance on considerations
of the claims to to con‐
on considerations
consume spicy sume
peppers. Three out
spicy peppers. of out
Three fourofparticipants rated
four participants ratedthe
the“fighting infections”(74.4%),
“fighting infections”
(74.4%), “boosting your body”
“boosting (74.1%),
your body” and “high
(74.1%), in antioxidants”
and “high (73.7%)
in antioxidants” as important
(73.7%) oror very
as important
important
very important (Figure 6).(Figure 6).

Figure 6. The importance of 6.

Figure spicy pepper characteristics.
The importance of spicy pepper characteristics.

3.2. Binary Logit

The binary logit regression results are shown in Table 4. The likelihood ratio test is a
test to determine if the parameters associated with the explanatory variables are statisti‐
cally significantly different from zero, i.e., β_1 = β_2 = ⋯=β_n. The likelihood test statistic
(177.97) and accompanying p‐value (<0.0001) indicate that the model fits statistically sig‐
nificantly better than a model that includes only an intercept term, i.e., at least one of the
Agronomy 2021, 11, 2040 9 of 11

3.2. Binary Logit

The binary logit regression results are shown in Table 4. The likelihood ratio test is
a test to determine if the parameters associated with the explanatory variables are sta-
tistically significantly different from zero, i.e., β_1 = β_2 = · · · = β_n. The likelihood
test statistic (177.97) and accompanying p-value (<0.0001) indicate that the model fits
statistically significantly better than a model that includes only an intercept term, i.e.,
at least one of the parameter estimates associated with the independent variables is sta-
tistically different from zero. Other measures of model fit, R-square (R-Square = 0.2098,
Max-rescaled R-Square = 0.2905) and the percent concordant/discordant pairs (78.4 con-
cordant, 21.6 discordant) both suggest the model does a relatively good job predicting the
participants’ frequency of purchasing spicy peppers.

Table 4. Logit regression parameter estimates, standard errors, statistics, and p-values.

Parameter 1 Estimate Wald Chi-Square p-Value

Intercept −1.3779 9.7134 0.0018
Vegetable Eater 0.4734 6.9186 0.0085
Healthy Diet −0.0824 0.1517 0.6969
Foodie 0.6046 9.4808 0.0021
Food Explorer 1.0561 20.7263 <0.0001
Age_1 (18–34 years) 1.4092 30.6506 <0.0001
Age_2 (35–64 years) 0.9337 21.1462 <0.0001
Income_1 (Less than USD 25,000) 0.1205 0.0913 0.7625
Income_2 (USD 25,000–49,999) 0.1690 0.1959 0.6581
Income_3 (USD 50,000–99,999) 0.5495 2.1745 0.1403
Income_4 (USD 100,000–149,999) 0.4835 1.2748 0.2589
Bachelor Plus 0.2478 1.6786 0.1951
Minority −0.1714 0.3368 0.5617
Hispanic 0.7138 9.2664 0.0023
Southwest Ties 0.4173 3.5588 0.0592
Census Northeast 0.0382 0.0241 0.8767
Census West 0.1234 0.1959 0.6581
Census South 0.0371 0.029 0.8648
1Variables left out to avoid singularity issues included Age_3 (65 years or older), Income_5 (USD 150,000 or
more), and Census Midwest.

Results shown in Table 4 show seven of the 17 variables, including the intercept, in
the model were significant at the 10% level (six at the 5% level). The probability that
participants indicated they were a frequent consumer of spicy peppers increased if they:
• indicated their vegetable consumption was consistent with USDA’s My Plate Program
recommendations,
• considered themselves a “foodie” in that they agreed or strongly agreed with the
statement “I would consider myself a person who devotes attention and energy to
knowing food ingredients and preparation techniques and finds enjoyment in top-
notch ingredients and preparation”,
• were a “food explorer” in that they agreed or strongly agreed with the statement “I
try to use unique, gourmet, new, or exotic ingredients in my cooking”,
• identified their race as non-white or non-Caucasian (identified as American Indian or
Alaska Native, Asian, Black or African American, or Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander),
• if they were younger than 65 years, i.e., between 18 and 34 years or between 35 and
64 years old, or
• had ties to the Southwest indicating that they live or had previously lived in Arizona,
New Mexico, or Texas.
Other factors included in the model, e.g., diet quality/health, income, education,
Hispanic, or current geographic residence as defined by Census Regions had no statistically
significant impact on the frequency of spicy pepper consumption.
Agronomy 2021, 11, 2040 10 of 11

4. Conclusions
As the U.S. becomes more culturally diversified via various influences including
immigration and tourism, so too do the food preferences of its population. Spicy or
pungent peppers sometimes referred to as hot, chili, or chile, are benefiting from changing
food preferences. Per capita fresh chile pepper consumption has more than doubled over
the last 40 years and per capita consumption of dry chile peppers has increased by more
than 46%. While spicy pepper consumption has increased significantly, the increase has
largely been met via imports as domestic production of spicy peppers (as a USDA category
“chile peppers”) has declined over the last 25 years. By better understanding spicy pepper
consumers and their consumption patterns, it may be possible for U.S. farmers and food
manufacturers to identify ways to meet increasing demand.
A nationwide panel survey was implemented in the summer of 2021 to gather infor-
mation to better understand consumer preferences for spicy peppers. While the survey is
not necessarily representative of the U.S. population and results should not be inferred to
the population, the results do shed light on spicy pepper consumption.
The probability that participants purchased spicy peppers at least once per month
increased with vegetable consumption in general, if a participant identified as a “foodie”
or as someone who likes to explore new foods, minorities, had ties to the southwest or
who were younger. The findings, if consistent with the larger population, are positive for
the industry as younger consumers currently consume spicy peppers more frequently and
are likely to continue that trend as they age and the population continues to become more
diverse from a racial or ethnicity standpoint.
Domestic farmers seeking market opportunities within the spicy pepper market might
benefit by better understanding their final consumer, i.e., the population that consumes
spicy peppers. The preliminary results from the survey described in this paper suggest
opportunities to target younger, ethnically diverse, and foodie consumers. Further research
could explore in greater depth the impact ethnicity has on spicy pepper consumption in
the United States, i.e., explore in more detail the ties between different ethnic populations
and spicy pepper consumption.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, J.L. and S.T.; methodology, J.L.; software, J.L. and S.T.;
validation, S.T.; formal analysis, J.L. and S.T.; writing—original draft preparation, S.T. and J.L.;
writing—review and editing, J.L. and S.T.; visualization, J.L. and S.T.; supervision, J.L.; project
administration, J.L. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: Funding support provided by the New Mexico State University Agricultural Experiment Station.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval was received to
obtain data from human subjects for this research project. IRB Project #: 21833.
Informed Consent Statement: Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study.
Data Availability Statement: Data is not publicly available per IRB application and participant
informed consent.
Acknowledgments: The authors wish to thank Don Blayney for his review of the manuscript and
excellent editorial suggestions.
Conflicts of Interest: Jay Lillywhite has previously received grants from the New Mexico Chile
Association and has spoken at industry association meetings. No personal remuneration has
been received.

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