RESEARCH ARTICLE | AUGUST 08 2023

Data mining based framework for identification and disaster

risk assessment in the supply chain 
Taufik Baidawi  ; Marimin; Suprihatin; Mulyorini Rahayuningsih; Wisnu Ananta Kusuma

AIP Conference Proceedings 2485, 130003 (2023)

https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0107248

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09 August 2023 17:29:09

 Data Mining Based Framework For Identification and
Disaster Risk Assessment in The Supply Chain
Taufik Baidawi1,a, Marimin1,b, Suprihatin1,c, Mulyorini Rahayuningsih1,d, Wisnu
Ananta Kusuma2,e
1
Department of Agro-industrial Technology, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, IPB
University (Bogor Agricultural University), Bogor 16680, Indonesia University, Bogor, Indonesia.
2
Departement of Computer Science- IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia
a)
Corresponding author: taufik_baidawi@apps.ipb.ac.id
b)
marimin@ipb.ac.id
c)
suprihatin@apps.ipb.ac.id
d)
mulyorinir@yahoo.com
e)
ananta@apps.ipb.ac.id

Abstract. This paper discusses the identification of disaster risks that occur in Jambi Province based on disaster data and
various types of disasters. The disaster risk index is obtained from the potential hazard, vulnerability, and risk capacity of the
area. From the distribution of the risk index, each region can be linked with supply chain activities so that it can be identified

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and mitigated so as to reduce the impact on supply chain activities. The identified risk index is then integrated with the
framework so that evaluation and mitigation be carried out properly. In analyzing and mapping disaster risk in this paper the
Data Mining method is used. It was found that from the 10 types of disasters, there are 8 (80%) who have a high-risk index,
namely (1) floods, (2) flash floods, (3) extreme weather, (4) earthquake, (5) forest and land fires, (6) drought, (7) volcano
eruption, and (8) landslide, and there are 2 (20%) that have a medium risk index, namely (9) epidemic and disease outbreaks
and (10) extreme and abrasion waves. This paper aims to improve the performance of a data mining-based framework for
identifying, assessing, and mitigating various forms of disaster hazards in the supply chain activities.
Keywords: Data Mining, Mitigation, Risks, Supply Chain

INTRODUCTION
The investigation related to the topic covers numerous sorts of risks that want to be recognized and mitigated. As
defined in [1],[2], Risk is a critical issue that threatens the sustainability of the supply chain. As defined in [3],
Supply chain risk management encompasses the collaborative and coordinated efforts of all parties involved in a
supply chain to identify, assess, mitigate and monitor risks with the aim to reduce vulnerability and resilience of the
supply chain, ensuring profitability and continuity. In identifying and mitigating disasters, a framework is needed to
provide disaster management so that the supply chain can run correctly. One of the danger elements which are the
primary attention is a disaster [4]. In this paper, the basis for coping with the problem is with makes use of data
mining[5].
The various decisions and actions involved in identifying and mitigating disasters in the supply chain using this
data mining-based framework can be classified into three categories: (1) Risk Identification; (2) Disaster Mitigation;
and (3) Data Mining. The first category includes the identification of risks affecting the supply chain [1] or analysis
of the disaster risk index [2]. The second category is related to disaster mitigation techniques that occur most along
the supply chain [3] and the third category relates to the design of data mining-based frameworks [4].
To mitigate risks for every delivery chain, we need to assess the extent of the impact and the way powerful the
management of alternative failures is. However, such supply chain disruption is an event that can occur at any point
of the delivery chain, which affects the overall performance of one or many supply chain partners and their supply

13th International Seminar on Industrial Engineering and Management

AIP Conf. Proc. 2485, 130003-1–130003-10; https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0107248
Published by AIP Publishing. 978-0-7354-4306-8/$30.00

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chain flows [5]. Modeling and simulation techniques can be used to assist the risk and disaster management method.
The use of data mining has received little attention in the supply chain, but using the development and statistical
processing requirements quite a lot, encouraging researchers to remember the capacity of information mining
strategies to fix problems associated with hazard identification, prediction, assessment, and reaction [6],[7],[8]. So
that this theoretical framework or concept may be applied to actual troubles [6].
The research hypothesis discussed in this article is using facts mining strategies to provide predictive analysis for
a supply chain that targets to contribute to the untapped ability of statistics mining-based techniques inside the
delivery chain, as identified in [9]. Also, it could be used to expect disaster risk inside the supply chain so that the
proposed framework is then applied and applied to the prevailing issues. In this paper, threat prediction is
accomplished thru classification, then used on data to predict disaster chance alongside the supply chain. The
novelty of the research supplied does the technology that has to be incorporated into the supply chain process in
times of disaster. In particular, the contributions of this text are as follows:

• Disaster identification and Mitigation using experiments for specific case research.

• A facts mining-primarily based disaster chance prediction framework that emphasizes the synergy between
statistics mining and the supply chain, especially the ones associated with disaster events.

• Implementation of the proposed framework displaying applicability to the supply chain.

The rest of this paper is prepared as follows. Section two gives a precis of the study's attempt that applies data-
pushed data mining for supply chain-related purposes. Section three describes the framework of data mining within
the supply chain while a disaster occurs. Then, Section four calculates a disaster risk index based on hazard
potential, vulnerability, and capacity and classifies the level of risk. Finally, concludes and proposes directions for
future research on data mining and supply chains.

Risk Identification and Assessment

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Risk is crucial trouble that threatens the sustainability of the supply chain [1],[2]. The frequency, severity, and
variation of the supply chain dangers as a result of increasing globalization and getting shorter the product life cycle
within the supply chain community [15]. The supply chain is faced with numerous inner and outside risks with
diverse styles of chance and effect [16],[17]. This risk can arise from diverse resources together with unsure
demand, supply disruptions, dynamic customer markets, and even such unexpected activities, cyber assaults, natural
screw-ups, and terrorism [5],[4]. This paper proposes a general framework for predicting the use of data mining-
based risks that can be implemented to all supply chain-related efforts in the occasion of a catastrophe. The case of
growing supply chain sustainability through hazard mitigation is explored in [18].
There are innumerable natural and man-made risks to operations inside the supply chain network. Some of those
risks consist of charge fluctuations, volatile demand, supply issues, operational risks, shipping dangers, and natural
disasters [16],[4]. Supply chain risk management is a scientific technique to become aware of, verify and mitigate
dangers in the supply chain [19].
Nowadays many organizations are starting to apply Data Mining for their data processing. Data Mining may be
utilized in numerous ranges of the supply chain [20]. There is diverse research on the usage of data mining to
stumble on and check selected danger in special research areas [21],[22]. However, there are a loss of a scientific
framework for exploiting unstructured (risk) facts for Supply Chain Risk Management [23]. Furthermore, how to
show threat management issues into data mining to make strong threat control decisions stays an undertaking. A
framework with the potential to integrate data mining and threat control tactics is needed to better understand
information.
This paper contributes to the literature by providing a unique supply chain risk management framework
supported by data mining to identify, evaluate, and mitigate diverse sorts of supply chain risks.

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 Hazard identification framework in Supply Chain
The framework model for supply chain risk was also developed by [10], who made 3 stages, namely (1)
determination of risk factors, (2) development model stages which explain the risk identification model, (3) risk
analysis and risk mitigation as well as the system design stage. To improve supply chain threat prediction, we
suggest a framework that relies on the combination of data mining inside the supply chain risk management
procedure. This framework aims for two way interactivity and synergy among supply chains. Figure 1 describes the
framework flow. The focus is on conventional tasks in supply chain procedures.

FIGURE 1. Disaster Identification and Assessment framework in Supply Chain

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Data Mining

The definition of data mining is a business process for exploring large amounts of data to discover meaningful
patterns and rules [11]. Another definition states that data mining is defined as a process of finding patterns in
data[12]. Data Mining are regularly used in Customer Relationship Management (CRM), customer prediction, and
client risk evaluation inside the insurance and banking sectors. [13],[14]. Cluster analysis is any other commonplace
Data Mining method for the risk control field [15]. The Supply Chain network structure can reveal the supply chain
to intrusion and is checked for the spread of these disruptive events. It is validated that Data Mining can be used
correctly for hazard control. Furthermore, a way to convert risk management issues into Data Mining issues to make
strong chance management selections in the supply chain remains a project. Thus, there's a need for holistic and
systematic Data Mining-based supply chain management risk strategies to accommodate most varieties of risk and
data overload developing in the supply chain. One of the techniques in data mining is the classification technique
[16]. In this paper, classification is used to classify disaster risk level classes based on the region and type of
disaster.

METHODS
The proposed framework is developed after an assessment of the literature. This systematic model provides a
complete evaluation of various data mining based threat management together: hazard indicator identity, hazard
statistics, building a chance-orientated data warehouse, danger analysis assets and management team, conversion of
supply chain issues to Data Mining.
The goals of this research are to expand a Data Mining-primarily based supply chain framework via integrating
numerous activities consisting of figuring out risk signs, identification and mitigating disasters, translating chance
control issues into Data Mining. First, the supply chain, Data Mining, data warehousing, and information
management structures literature were reviewed to develop a conceptual version.

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 To expand the holistic records-based supply chain risk management framework, the main standards of data
mining, data warehousing, and hazard control are finished methodology integrated. The step-by way of-step
technique for the development of a data mining-based supply chain framework. The proposed version is i) threat
identity indicators, ii) improvement of a risk data warehouse to collect and keep threat data, and iii) incorporates
data mining modules covering conversion of danger control issues into data mining troubles and interpretation of
analysis effects for risk management measures [17].
• Profile Data: Risk management fashions must be advanced considering crucial records related to institutional
profiles.
• Map the Supply Chain community: The supply chain map presents a larger image.
• Hazard policies: The risk mindset and degree of tolerance of the enterprise affect risk identification, evaluation
and perception, and the choice of hazard mitigation [18].
• Evaluating the extent of resilience to chance: Obtain statistics about the extent of resilience inside the context of
supply chain danger.

Various descriptive and processing Data Mining tasks may be used for analyzing risk data inclusive of
classification, prediction, regression, association evaluation, clustering, anomaly detection, etc. [17],[12]. Hit upon
troubles, expect risks and their results, discover relationships among risks and other elements (e.G., triggering
factors), pick out the root reasons of risks, cluster volatile items, etc. [19],[4]. Prediction equipment may be
implemented to expect risk elements and future hazard information developments.
The Data Mining module aims to convert risk data into risk information / knowledge in decision making for
supply chain risk management. Risk data is meaningless until it is subject to data processing. Risk data is collected
so that it becomes a data mart generated from the Risk Data Warehouse for analysis. In the supply chain risk
management model the data mart is called the risk data mart. Datamart risk (database problem risk) is part of the
Risk Data Warehouse and is created from this data warehouse by changing, summarizing, and sharing data
according to the needs of the Data Mining application.
In this section, we discuss the results presented in relation to the disaster risk index assessment. The first part
discusses the level of danger, level of vulnerability and level of capacity for disaster risk. Then the second part
summarizes the disaster risk level assessment. The data mining model that is decided upon must be evaluated and

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compared with different techniques to ensure its validity. The interpretation and evaluation of Data Mining
processing results offers a variety of threat information for risk knowledge. Data Mining can offer the following is
data about hazards [33],[5].
• Identification hazard occasions
• Classification of different according to threat
• Summary of threat facts
• Visualization of risk data

Regarding the disaster that occurred, we took the example of a disaster in Jambi Province. Jambi Province is
one of the provinces on the island of Sumatra which is one of the areas prone to disasters, such as floods, drought,
extreme weather, forest and land fires, epidemics and disease outbreaks, landslides, earthquakes, flash floods and
extreme waves and abrasion. The various types of disasters in Jambi Province are reinforced by data on disaster
events that have been recorded in the 2016-2020 Jambi Province disaster risk assessment document [2]. From this
data combined with indicators and methodology for disaster risk assessment, a disaster risk assessment in Jambi
Province is generated. A disaster risk assessment is carried out to identify the hazards and vulnerabilities of an area
which then analyzes and estimates the likelihood of potential disaster threats and compares it with the area's capacity
to deal with disasters, as shown in the following equation[2]:

(1)
Information:
R = Risk
H = Hazard
V = Vulnerability
C = Capacity

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 RESULT AND DISCUSSION
A top-down approach is used to assess potential hazards, levels of vulnerability, and capacity. Table 1 shows the
level of potential hazards. Table 2 also provides an overview of the level of vulnerability and Table 3 potential
Disaster Losses in Jambi Province, table 4 also provides the level of capacity to obtain a disaster risk index and table
5 Jambi province disaster risk level.
The hazard index was compiled based on data and records of events that have occurred in an area. The
hazard index analysis was obtained based on the type of potential disaster that occurs. From the potential for existing
disasters, it can be estimated that the potential magnitude of the hazard affected by the disaster can be estimated.
Details of hazard classes, as well as the extent of areas exposed to potential disasters in Jambi Province, can be
obtained as seen in table 1.

TABLE I. Jambi Province Hazard Class

Hazard
Kind of Disaster
Are (Ha) Class
Flood 2,882,021 High
Flash Floods 67,703 High
Extreme Weather 3,666,497 High
Epidemics and disease outbreaks 12,121 Medium
Extreme Wave and Abrasion Wave 5,051 Medium
earthquake 4,842,938 High
Forest and Land Fires 2,149,579 High
Drought 4,842,997 High
Kerinci Volcano Eruption 9,640 High
Landslide 843,493 High

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The recapitulation result of the hazard class above shows that the dominant class of disaster in Jambi Province is
located high class. The potential for flood disasters is assessed based on parameters of flood-prone areas, slope,
distance from rivers, and rainfall with a total area of 2,882,021 hectares with high class. Meanwhile, the potential for
flash floods is determined based on parameters such as the main river, topography, and the potential for landslides
upstream of the river (flash floods occur only because they originate from areas with high landslide classes). Based
on these parameters, the flash flood hazard index in Jambi Province reached 67,703 hectares and entered the High
class.
The calculation of the potential for extreme waves and abrasion is seen based on the parameters of wave
height, current, coastal typology, vegetation cover, and shoreline shape that reaches 5.051 Ha and belongs to the
medium class. Drought disaster is measured based on meteorological parameters (standardized precipitation index)
with an area of 4,842,997 and is in the high category. The assessment of the volcanic eruption hazard uses the flow
zone and fall zone parameters that occur in an active volcano in Jambi Province, namely Mount Kerinci, and it is
known that the total area of the Kerinci volcano eruption hazard is 9,640 Ha with a high hazard class. Landslide
hazard is measured from the parameters of the soil movement vulnerability zone and slope (%) and it is known that
the total hazard area is 843,493 Ha with a high hazard class. Seismic hazard potential is seen based on topographic
class parameters, shock intensity in bedrock, and shock intensity at the surface, it is known that the total earthquake
hazard area is 4,842 million Ha with a high hazard class. The danger of epidemics and disease outbreaks, it is known
that the total area of the hazard is 12,121 hectares with a moderate hazard class. The potential for forest and land fire
hazards, seen based on the parameters of forest and land types, climate, and soil types, where the area and hazard
class is known to have the total area of forest and land fire hazard is 2.149 million Ha with a high hazard class.

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 TABLE 2. Potential Population Exposed to Disasters in Jambi Province

Potential population exposed (soul)

Number of
population Vulnerable Group
Kind of Disaster exposed Class
Exposed
population Loss Environmental Level of
class class Damage Class Vulnerability
Flood 2,954,064 395,099 460,441 11,476 High
Flash Floods 208,842 28,434 30,746 1,277 High
Extreme Weather 3,411,190 457,413 529,930 14,105 High
Epidemics and disease outbreaks 179,930 23,107 26,669 350 High
Extreme Wave and Abrasion Wave 1,954 274 337 9 High
earthquake 3,426,677 459,539 532,605 14,186 High
Forest and Land Fires - - - - -
Drought 3,426,382 459,500 532,567 14,185 High
Kerinci Volcano Eruption 8,171 1,183 1,779 50 High
Landslide 66,884 9,333 11,947 569 High

The vulnerability index consists of the exposed population index and the loss index. Index the exposed population
derives from the socio-cultural component. While the loss index is obtained from physical, economic, and
environmental components. The socio-cultural component is determined based on parameters population density and
population of vulnerable groups (sex ratio, vulnerable age group, poor population, and disabled population). Forest
and land fire disasters do not have a social and physical component, because forest and land fire disaster, the danger

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area is outside the residential area. Meanwhile, the loss index is grouped into two indexes, namely rupiah losses
(physical and economy) and environmental damage. Where the physical components are obtained based on the
parameters of the house, facilities general and critical facilities potentially affected by a disaster, economic
component based on land parameters productiv. While the environmental component is obtained based on land
cover parameters (protection forest, natural forest, mangrove forest, swamps, and shrubs). An explanation of the
Potential Disaster Losses in Jambi Province and Jambi Province Capacity Level is shown in table 2, 3.

TABLE 3. Potential Disaster Losses

Potential Environment
Potential Disaster Losses (Rp. Billion)
Damage (Ha)
Kind of Disaster
Physical Economic Total
Class Large Class
Losses Losses Losses
Flood 9743,6 7592,4 17336,0 High 264 Medium
Flash Floods 1052,3 214,1 1266,4 High 7523 High
Extreme Weather 15653,8 17676,1 33329,9 High - -
Epidemics and disease outbreaks - - - - - -
Extreme Wave and Abrasion
Wave 8,0 6,5 14,6 Medium 1228 High
Earthquake 3462,9 3496,6 1959,4 High - -
Forest and Land Fires - 17481,5 17481,5 Medium 548682 High
Drought - 17750,3 17750,3 Medium 740860 High
Kerinci Volcano Eruption - 0,0 0,0 High 1679 High
Landslide 425,1 502,6 927,8 High 552678 High

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 Table 4 shows the dominant class with potential for physical and economic losses is high and the dominant class
for potential environmental damage is high.

TABLE 4. Capacity Level

Kind of Disaster Capacity Level
Flood Low
Flash Floods Low
Extreme Weather Low
Epidemics and disease outbreaks Low
Extreme Wave and Abrasion Wave Low
earthquake Low
Forest and Land Fires Low
Drought Low
Kerinci Volcano Eruption Low
Landslide Low

The level of risk for all potential disasters in Jambi Province is obtained from the combination of hazard levels,
level of vulnerability, and level of capacity. The following is a summary result in producing the level of risk for all
potential disasters in Jambi Province as shown in table 5.

TABLE 5. Jambi Province Disaster Risk Level

Kind of Disaster Level of Level of Level of Level of
Hazard Vulnerability Capacity Risk
Flood High High Medium High
Flash Floods High High Medium High

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Extreme Weather High High Medium High
Epidemics and disease outbreaks Medium High Low Medium
Extreme Wave and Abrasion Wave Medium High Low Medium
earthquake High High Medium High
Forest and Land Fires High High Medium High
Drought High High Medium High
Kerinci Volcano Eruption High High Medium High
Landslide High High Medium High

In this study, there are four attributes used, level of hazard, level of vulnerability, level of capacity, and
attributes of level of risk used as a class attribute. The classification process in this study used WEKA Software to
evaluate the model. WEKA is a software that contains machine learning algorithms used in completing tasks or
analyzing data mining. From the results of the study of the level of disaster risk in Jambi Province, then a data
mining analysis was carried out using a classification technique using the J48 tree classification, for a high risk
level, there are 8 (80%), namely floods, flash floods, extreme weather, earthquake, forest and land fires, drought,
detailed volcano eruptions, you landslide, while epidemics and disease outbreaks and extreme wave and abrasion
waves enter the medium level (20 %). As seen in Figures 2.

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 FIGURE 2. Classifier tree all Class Level of Risk

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FIGURE 3. Display visualization of all attributes

In applying the Data Mining-driven supply chain framework, the following observations were made.
• Implementation of a data mining-based supply chain risk management framework requires continuous
monitoring for changes in risk factors.
• Description of risk management problems into Data Mining problems is one of the crucial.
• It is not possible to analyze all types of risk at once. Therefore, each problematic Data Mining must focus on
a particular risk category.
• Framework should be integrated with information systems and data warehouses to automate the selection and
application of Data Mining analysis.

Furthermore, it can be explained how to convert risk management into data mining, in supply chain risk
problems there are several things that are encountered such as how to determine risk factors that can be included in
the stage of identifying risk sources, then how can we create models to predict the value of risk, besides that we can
also predict the level of risk in each particular area, characterizing different items, etc. all of them can be converted
into data mining processing with several techniques such as classification, prediction, time series analysis,
association analysis, clustering, summarization and anomaly detection with decision tree, neural techniques.
networks, support vector machines, K-means clustering and sequence mining.

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 CONCLUSION
Supply chains that use statistics mining strategies and depend on collaboration and interactivity between data
mining and the supply chain. This framework is established through the case supply chain in instances of
catastrophe. The results of the evaluation done on the case studies suggest that the technique data mining used to
process risk disaster. Future research directions on the software of data mining within the supply chain consist of: (a)
exploring more function-wealthy statistics sets and larger units of statistics mining techniques; (b) extract
understanding thru an aggregate of facts mining and data mining-based techniques and use it to benefit managerial
insights and affect supply chain decision-making techniques; and (c) investigating whether a comparable approach
can be applied in other phases of the supply chain process, which includes catastrophe chance assessment and
prediction in agro-industry supply chains.
This report contributes to the literature in the area of data mining-based framework for Supply chain risk
management. The primary focus on danger control and Data Mining are combined to expand a roadmap to acquire
an effective and smart control method for an adaptive supply chain in the event of a catastrophe.
The data mining-based supply chain framework within the occasion of a catastrophe, especially within the
supply chain in agro-industry, is precise and has by no means been discussed before. The proposed data mining-
based risk management model is anticipated to make corporations smarter and provide a higher knowledge of supply
chain dangers. Proactive and reactive mitigation techniques may be advanced primarily based on an evaluation of
threat data. This research can offer an initial foundation for similar studies and improvement of a data-driven
framework for supply chain risk control. Future research can discover a number of the restrictions captured on this
take a look at. Future studies can focus on the awareness of the benefit of records mining, primarily on supply chain
risk management frameworks, so they can be extensively applied.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author would like to thank the Education Fund Management Institute (LPDP) of the Ministry of Finance and

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the Ministry of Research and Technology of the National Research and Innovation Agency for providing funding for
this research.

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