COVER The = materials STORY We're using more of more sorts of stuff than ever before. But what does that mean for us and the planet, asks Andy Ridgway (OU may have read about there ‘Youmay have read about it elsewhere. Five or so yearsago, Gi the world was on the brink a crisis, ‘one involving a groupof chemicalelements knownas the rareearths. With exotienames such as yttrium, europiumand dysprostum, ‘they had become essential components of ‘ur fridges, televisionsandsmartphones~ pretty much al electrical gadgets In fat, Bat China, witha nearmonopoly on rareearth production, was slashing exports, Demand was about to massively outstrip supply Intheend,ttwasabitofadamp squib. The price of somerare earth elements did soarto peak in2011~and then dropped away again almost fast. How this storm brewed, but never broke, {san instructive story about our use of Earth's mineral resources today, and what that means forthe future.Not so long agowe relied on just dozen or so elements tomake most of what ‘wemanufacture,ones with famillarnames likeiron, aluminium, copper and silicon, that arewidely present in substantial quantitiesin Earth's crust, Now, though, ourambitions extend throughout the periodic table. Like Michelin-starred chefs, weare combining this material menu in increasingly exoticways, That gives us anew flexibility, but makes us dependent on some obscure elements found only insmall amounts and ina few places. Imthis new material landscape, t'sno longer just about how much stu there's, but +how much itcosts, how we useit, where ts and who controls it. Over the next six pages, \wetakealookathow we are using Earth’s ‘mineral resources today ~ and what crunches \wemight anticipate in the future. > 7February2015 |Newsclentit| 35LLL A WORLD IN YOUR SMARTPHONE {Atypical smartphone contains dozens of mined elements sourced from allover the planet 440 tonnes of rare earth elements went into the 1.7 billion mmoile phones shipped workdvide in 2012 ifyouareone oftheestimatedbilion people nthe world that now owna "mariphone you sre walking around with ‘a periodietablein your pocket. Besides silicon tschips, copper in the wiringand hhydrocarbon-based pasties inthe casing thereisindiumand tin nthetouchsereen, probably lithium and cobatin the battery, Andpossbly antimony asafire retardant inthe utershell Thats justthe stat:each smartphone contains atleast 3 different element, most probably more(see"A world inyoursmartphone" above) Therare earth elements, a group of1 that neste towardsthe bottom of the periodic table areats there fn numbers. Ytriam, lanthanum, cerium, praseodymiuim, ‘europium, gadolinium andterbium are 35 |NowScientist|24 February 2015 minh Rcande “Tho cought arth top pr A yanda aM Sf pritppines Aden crs of he ‘lent in tha corespndng colour blow exploited for thelr light-emitting properties tomake thecolours ofthe screen. Tiny but ‘powerful magnets inthe microphone, speaker and motion sensor contain crucial doses of neodymium, éysprosium and others snot just smartphones. Europlum gives colourto liquid crystal televisionsand low ‘energy light bulbs, and makes euro banknotes slow under ultraviolet ightasan ant-forgery Measure, Magnets containing neodymium and dysprosiuim power the wind turbinesand clectriecars ofthe green energy revolution. In the deeade or sobefore China puton the brakes in 2010, global production of rare earths had more than doubled (seeThe rareearth story’ above right). When China ‘announced a 0 percent cut nits export ‘quota, itcontrolled 97 percent ofthe world’s i Ghinararecarth elements rare-earth supply. Atits peak in}uly 203, the price ofa +-kilogram ump of dysprosium had skyrocketed to over$3000,20 times the price Just two yearsbefore Butrare earth elements aren't actually rare. Although they aren't nearly as abundant in Earth's crusts something lke aluminium or iron, they ae all present in parts per milion, with workable deposits dotted across the planet, China just happened tomine them more cheaply, infact, mine at Mountain Pass in the Mojave desert, California, had been the world’s leading producer ofrareearths before t closed in 2002 the faceof Chinese competition and ocal environmental concerns. Oneetfect ofthe chinese cut inexports ‘was torewrite that equation. By August 2012, ‘ining company Molycorp had restarteddeadamamamammmunummmmmnnnunnamecedaceddddcicdccccddddda THE RARE EARTH STORY ‘Our consumption of rare earth olomonts is growing as they ar used in more and more devi China dominates the market and its restriction on exoorts caused a price spike in 2011 Consumption Wet Cin in gp icing smn, ae mine mec ui ths ew ch oy in 207 om me lav Grim Pestahise Raion 4 mp asta Production 150 220 Tonnes thousand) 2000 2005 “2010 production at Mountain Pas. In November 2012, mine at Mount Weld in Western ‘Australia also opened its doors. Starting a ‘new mining operation isanotoriously slow business, but this timecompanies had seen thecrisiscoming. “Something that looks likea strategicvullnerabilty to people in ‘government looks likea business opportunity toentrepreneurs” says Eugene Gholz, an ‘economist at the University of Texas a Austin anda former Pentagon adviser."Ifthere ls restricted supply, entrepreneurs expect prices togoup,sothey start toinvest” According to Gholz,thereare now more than200 mining firms worldwide trying to convince investors toput money into nevrzare earth deposits, ‘Meanwhile, companies making products containingrare earths also took matters into Bho mo Sie igen en iD ma MAD Price 7000 29 ee ae | 8 so00 coun |} Boss N| . F sc00 { F 2000 2005 2007 2008 2011 2013 2015 China 96of lob rare earth suply aver this period 7 7 6% 88 thetr own hands, reducing thetr use ofthem orstoppingitentirely."The price spike caused demand destruction for many rare earths, as alot of manufacturers designed them out of their products," says David Merriman, an, analyst at mineral consulting firm Roskll nformation Services in London. Sowhat does thisrare earth non-crisstell us? Fist, that in absolute terms wearen'tin ‘danger of unningout of any material resource Just yot. Despite sharp uptickinour use of ‘most elements in the past decade or so and thatin the teth of amalor recession—our consumption represents at most few per cent of known reserves. That goes for therare cearthsand otherless common elements, but also for the traditional elements we till use ‘the most: iron, aluminium, copperand zine nd processes Risk rating Sean karan Yeriom koto 1 of th spy the lors inated, ascot byt Bitsh Sigil Srey Applications Mavets Moers. dsc ves niches pels 230 Polshingpondes a etary tel pratebaneFie 95. ened a 57 Gtavicconeries ” Fuke-crckngcaralss enol at Baty als > csr dpa soeensardt Digs ans ners Bio And resorvesarejust theamountof stuff ‘considered economic tomineat any one time, Asonereserve is exhausted orbecomestoo expensive, soothers may open up, as China found out. By last year its share ofthe global rare-earth market had fallen to 88 percent, anditis expected to sinkto7 per centinthe next few years, Sothere's nothing to worry about. There's plenty of stuff to go round, and market forces, plus our new capability tomixand match ‘many elements, mean weneedn'tfear supply crunches: we willinnovate past ‘hem. “Themain message s don't panic, people areingeniousand will finda way around problems,” says Gholz Ina working paper forthe US Council on Foreign Relations published ast October, heargues > 14 February 2015| NewSclentist 37HIGH RISK Supplies of several nonare-earth elements used in small but crucial quantities are dsemed insecure Bo: Bs Bo Bas & = tm Proton Tomas 18% =| Pein 163homes TH Pte 7.8hmes TN Podon 7 mes 1386 Hecones— 3.60Mimes ese 1.8 Uhomes eres 03 mes Boom: 11 Moms ee oj we | aie | Mee | tee w aces otis | pols prices 8 aj ove | me | Mr oie | Mj Sin ss a | ei = pee : Iokers Ines se | has hoes 5 Whee yo ams, Wow) Toe ome eared, | Whew wu Summa, Wher jos Spa pgs, igh dit ais igh fidit datas es) igh dito gins i ik | Fisk ig A ekg nf Aik tg 76. | i 7.6 76 76 = Re = = = Poiecon —1htmes —Uaaoom | Foun O4Kommes 128 | Pousin 12D kumes 165% | Poin 077 homes 161% fess 43Momex Heres 6 tomes Feseves —72Nomes Foes Uta “ ge on oi a | Nasr | a edie | tee | pcos pros the | Mojo ef Mar swaiins | Mj stone | Mar rene | ene om" | aene | save yg hes hides ‘ales “| is i ig When yeu Jetengne allys ‘Where you Caajccometers Where you Taine, eqns, Whee you eure ight ig dt igi ites igh fd t that China is unlikely evertoregainitsgripon. rareearth supplies. ‘Butitmight notallbe that straightforward. (One question show much of Earth's mineral resources it i senslbleor desirable toextract. Itsaquestion more often posed of our burning coflaydrocarbons, which contributes more directly to dangerous warmingof the planet, >butthe miningand refining of al metalsare energy intensive businesses "can the planet cope with us extracting more ‘and more of these things, burning moreand more carbon to get them out and using more and more water? mcertain partsof the world ‘that'sbecoming real issue,” says Andrew Bloodworth of the British Geological survey (B69) in Keyworth, near Nottingham. Perhaps surprisingly lifecycleanalyses of theenvironmental impact of mined elements, 381 NewScientst|14 February 2015 taking into accountenergy consumption and toxicity tohumanandotherlife, are ‘comparatively thinon the ground, One ofthe ‘most comprehensive was undertaken last year bby Philip Nuss of Yale University and Matthew ekelman of Northeastern University in Boston, Massachusetts. hey showed that many “speciality” elements wearenow using ‘more of, suchas the rare earths, do greater ‘environmental damage ona per-weight basis than more traditional materials (see periodic lables of energy demand and toxicty, page 40)-The worstoffendersaretthe group of precious metals centred around platinum, includingiridium and osmium, as wells palladium, rhodium and ruthenium, which are sed in catalyticconvertersand as catalysts tomuake pharmaceuticals and fertilisers and in oilrefining. Nevertheless, the comparatively smallamounts ofthese elementsin circulation means thelistof thegreatest ‘environmental sinners overall has familiar "ing: iron, aluminium, caleium, copper and ‘mercury (PLoS One, vol 9, pe101298} ‘Buteven discounting environmental ‘concerns, thereareothercloudson the horizon, the case ofthe rareearth non: ‘crisis, we were hicky that there happened tobe ‘mothballed capacity elsewhere when a supply crunch came. Rapid action reduced prices and scontinuingtodosotosuchanextent that themining companies that stepped into thebreach arenow finding tdificulttotusn, profit orattract investment. Theactivities of speculatorson commodities markets, as wellasthe panic buying of rareearths in the aftermath of the Chinese announcement also ‘creased volatlity. “Market speculation hascana eeecaaanetceNnmanal alm LOW RISK ‘Supplies of the most heavily used olements seem relatively assured Bi isk rating a isk rating a” ‘isk rating Fisk rating - 2 & Production — 1200 ktannes n Production — 0.16 ktonnes 25244 Production — 3000 Mtomnes 254% ‘756 Mtoanes 80% ‘Reserves 130 Moone Reserves Unknown Reseves 170 Glonaes. 78 Gtonaes (hewite) ie in om Ae Mir or] ee 7 Nido a aM seve ‘roduc mies ‘~ m heer ter | Mar gr tne ten Meir S| nm Bete sew a ean she vale toes le tls Pons bits, Wey Came es, VD Sex When pe Dine, wight dt as ign niftindit oi init carla, a | Alain nso ans igs fr 2013 Bij Fs ig cu | i ating 78 © Spin im fo 2003 2013 4) Se | tn aay it jd - r Production — 27 kaonnes 327% ‘Survey on bass of anount amd concanacin — Production 13.6 Mtonmes 504% Prodetion 17.9 Mimemes 29% Fees Unown nem asialliy an eoeiey Rsewes 25 Manes feos 60 Mnas othe si drei, Pa is Noe Fquesatoeinle | andes eli ct Nei har & prizes ike fa Oe Cher lens with igh ik tings Mieco Seon 85 Tm 75 Maj ee a on ‘ese fain reat tan a fds ining | Mecay 8 Amis 7.8— ng el & Tim 1 Moguein—7. Wow you Bly paar, ‘Where you mit find it Gahanised steal Where you igh findt Wing sigh tle hes Ferm 81 Hats 7 played very important olen rare earth prices, which inturn has affected supply and demand," says Merriman, ‘Meanwhile, China still supplies 97 per centof“heavy” rare earths, such as terbium and dysprosium, which aren't produced ‘commercially at Mountain Pass or Mount Weld. “The industry hashardly moved on. from the situation we had before=China still produces the vast majority ofrare earths," says Merriman. This might just hea ersis delayed Itisn’tall about therareearths, either. Certainly they stand at the top of mostexperts’ lists of critical” materials for which wecannot rely on future supplies. Drawing up such lists Js fraught with difficulty, not least because itis difficult to predict how ouruse of technology. wilichange. Demand for electriecars, bikes and buses hasn't risen as muchas forecast, for Instance, says Frank Marscheider Weidemann, of the Fraunhofer institute forSystemsnd Innovation Research in Karlsruhe, Germany. ‘That has lessened pressure on neodymium and dysprosium supplies, and possibly kept demand for platinum-group metalsfor catalyticconverters higher. Something similarapplies for compact fluorescent light bulbs, and hence demand forsomerareearths such asyterium; LED lights, which need much less ofthe rare earths, have proved more popular, Onthe cotherhand, demand forwind turbines and photovoltai cells is buoyant, adding pressure onneodymfumand dysprosium in thecase of turbines, and elements such assilver gallium and indium in thecase of photovoltaics, Despite uch uncertainties, we ean pickout some consistent risk factors. Concentration of reserves or production in only afew placesis one:therareearths, tungsten, antimony and, ‘earbon inthe form of graphite in China, orthe platinum group of metals in Russia and south Arica, Some 85 per cent ofthe world’s supply ‘ofnlobium, an element used tomakehigh- strength stee alloys, currently comes from justone mine in Bra says Bloodworth Justas with therareearths itisnotalways that other countries don'thave reserves, "China dominates produetion of many metals ‘hot because they have any more tungsten thananyone else,”says Bloodworth. “aut they have the smelters and the bigkit, an the West hha ost interest in doing alot of these things. \We'veexported ourheavy industry and environmental obligations somewhere els Another tiskis when in-demand elements areby-productsof miningforsomething >annannitialii THE TABLES ‘Many ctferent fectors environmental, economic and political ~ eke reliance on minod elements more ot less desirable Energy Energy tomine ang process Togam inmagapules Toxicity Towle torumans EE i < Is — [i ra fem ie 1 4 2 Fs (| else. Oneexampleis gallium, used as semiconductor in the likes of smartphones and for Blu-ray lasers tis presentin bauxite ore, the main source of aluminium, in concentrations ofbetween oand 80 parts permillion. Gallium isone ofthe fastest {growing ofthe new breed of elements: the European Commission predicts consumption in he European Union willincrease by 8 per ‘centevery year until2020, ‘Atthe moment, demand forfresh ‘sluminium is sufficient to cover our gallium needs and then some, says Danie! Best Mueller ofthe Norwegian University ofcienceand ‘Technology in Trondheim. But as more andmore aluminium isrecycled, bauxite production set todecline—and witht gallium supplies. “The amount of gallium that's used ands price would never justify 40 | ewSclentst| 1 February 2015 feeelel=|= alle lel laa fein ee s _mines for gallium alone,” says Mueller.Itisa similar less acute tory for tellurium, copper by-product used in solar cells, and hafnium, companion totitanium used in small amounts in many applications from nuclear fuel rodsto integrated cireults. Recyclabilty is alsoa factorthat affects anclement’sriskiness. Again, isnot the ‘traditional elements, which tend tobe used in bulk, thatare the problem: itis relatively easy and cheap to recycle ron from lumpof steel oraluminium froma drinks can. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), recycling rates forthese elements, as wellasforcopper, zing, tin and lead, are above 50 per cent. But flatscreen televisions, smartphones and batteries, often thrown away after just afew years or even months of use, areTocking up Recyeling Recycling ate) | ‘an inereasing amount ofthe newly essential elements. A UNEP report publishedin 201 Identified 34 metals with recycling rates of less than per cen, includingall the rare carths, gallium, indium, hafnium, telluriurm andahost ofother speciality metas (see periodic table, above). ‘You might say that werethe pices of ‘these elements tose, would increase the Incentiveto recover more of them. Butthere are constraints to this, not least because of the Increasingly complex blends of metals we use tomake products "There are thermodynamic Limits to how much can berecovered from the waste stream,’ says Nuss. “Some metals ‘mixed with other elements can't simply be recovered and then used with thei original functionality” Without more focuson designing electronic products from which ,Substtuabilty ose otreplscnginendars byanctherslment Distribution ee Risk rating cording tothe Btish Geologie Survey | (sete) © ‘Individual elements can be easily recycled, thats lkely toremaina problem, ‘This isa particular concern when an element hhaslow “substitutability"that is, we now ‘ofnocther element that cando the same ob. ‘According toa study by Thomas Graedel and hiscolleaguesat Yale University, some familiar names uch as magnesium ndlead fall Into this category. Wit relatively abundant supplies ofthese elements, thisislessofa ‘concern. for europium and dysprosium, ‘ontheother hand, itis big worry. Risk actorscan play offagainst each other. Some platinum-group elements have low substitutability for example, but “the good newsis that we're realy good at recycling them’, says Bloodworth, Hiscolleagueat the BGS, Richard Shaw, has compiled srisk list that pulls together many ofthese factors— amount and concentration of known reserves substitutability, reeyclabilty and good {governance in producing and reserve holding ‘countries togivea sense of which elements we would do welt rely oness. "We wanted tocomeup with somethingin which people could see our working,” says Bloodworth, “We used publicly avallablesources of information anda pretty simple algorithm tocaleulate what the end results.” ‘The riskiest elementsat the top of the BGS rankingare metals used on small salesin niche applications with few sources: the rare ‘earths, tungsten and antimony. Atthe bottom areelements such asaluminium,zincand ‘copper, wherea geographical spread of resources and high reeling rates mean we ‘can reasonably expect continuity ofsupply {see element rsk profiles on pages 38 and 30) InMay ast year, an EU-wide exercise came tosimilarconelusions,anointingaserles of “critical materials",among them antimony, gallium, germanium, graphite, magnesium, indium, niobium and tungsten, as wellas the rare earthsand platinum group metals The diagramson these pages give more ‘insight into some of the complexities ofthis ‘new material world we have created, Pezhaps, aswith the rare earth crisis that wasn’t, we ‘ill deftly eontinueto sidestep impending crunches, But with a whit of geopolitical, ‘economicand environmental factors in play— andawhole periodic table now tokeep tabs ‘on-the mostcertainthing about our material futures uncertainty itself ETS ‘Andy Rldguay sa reelance writer based i Bstol UK Acktional ara eporting by Richard Webb