Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Introduction to
International Bond Markets
December 2020
Strictly Confidential
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Table of Contents
1. Equity or Debt
2. USD Bond Considerations
3. Execution Process and Documentation Overview
4. Investor Engagement Strategy
5. Pricing Methodology and Investor Mix
6. Case Studies
Appendix : Market Update
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1. Equity or Debt
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Corporate Finance has always alluded to an optimum capital structure for maximizing value. Optimum capital structure is derived from sustainable
debt and equity. Optimization of debt is industry specific and critically important for sectors for generating meaningful ret urn for the stakeholders
Equity Debt
Global equity investors usually invest in Emerging Markets for generating Global Debt investors invest in Emerging Market debt for additional yield or
additional alpha rate pick up
Equity investors look for cushion specifically considering anticipated Global Debt prefer investing in foreign currency and recommend investee
exchange rate movement companies to adapt requisite hedging strategies
Preference at times towards growth vis a vis stable cash flows (owing to Preference remains towards stable cash flow generating companies with
risk considerations) predictable volatility specifically for Investment Grade names
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Matching long-
term assets with Longer tenor
Matches long term asset purchase with long-term debt Longer average life of 10 years
long term financing liabilities compared to bank loans
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✓ Market depth and liquidity allows for significant initial issue size: USD
Issue Size
200 million minimum size for a standalone issue
✓ Flexible, depending on the company’s credit
Typically amortising
Structure ✓ Bullet maturity
✓ Prepayable at par at the end of an interest period
Security ✓ Typically unsecured (with negative pledge) Typically will have a comprehensive security package
Generally a higher absolute cost of funding, given the greater issuer ✓ Typically the lowest absolute cost of funding, given better lender
Pricing & Coupon Type flexibility protection and “relationship subsidy”
✓ Fixed rate Typically priced on a floating rated spread off LIBOR
✓ SG / HK / LDN
Roadshow ✓ No roadshow necessary
✓ Additional stops in NY / Boston / LA for 144a deals
Credit Rating
Minimum of 2 international ratings required ✓ No ratings required
Requirement
Quarterly Monthly
Ongoing disclosure
Public disclosure Private-side disclosure only
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1 USD is the most common currency of choice for the majority of Asian issuers as it offers the most liquid market and access to
the broadest investor base globally
Currency
However, many issuers have been looking at other niche local currencies for issuance of smaller amounts – these currencies
when swapped into USD may offer attractive pricing
2
A size of USD200 million or above will ensure that there is sufficient liquidity in the secondary USD markets
Size
For alternate currencies, lower benchmark sizes can also be considered
3
The deepest investor pool typically exists for 5 year tenors and hence it is the preferred tenor for debut and repeat issuers
Tenor Other tenors typically tapped include 3, 7 and 10 years; can go up to 30 years for select names
4 A Reg S only format is typically used for deal sizes below USD500 million. For USD500 million or more, the Issuer can follow a
144A/Reg S format
Format
However, in order to tap the US investor base, issuers may seek to access a 144A/Reg S market for modest sizes as well
5 Ratings from two international rating agencies are typically required for any issuer who wishes to access the international bond
Ratings & markets
Documentation Key international ratings include Standard & Poor (“S&P”), Moody’s and Fitch.
6 A roadshow assists the management in articulating the credit story of the Issuer to the investment community
Roadshow In a Reg S only offering, key locations are Singapore, Hong Kong and London, whereas in a 144A/Reg S offering, New York,
Boston and LA may be targeted for meeting investors
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Shortened A set of master documents is created, which may be updated on a yearly basis
Execution This increases speed to market
Time Facilitates taking advantage of favorable market conditions as and when they arise
Future legal fees are less with the completion of the master document as documents are pre-agreed
Scarcity value driven by small issue amounts reduce cost of borrowing
Reduced Cost
Shortened transaction execution time facilitate tapping the market at favorable times, thereby reducing the average cost of funding over
time
Ability to access regional bond markets through placements of local currency or USD bonds directly into the market (e.g. Singapore,
Diversify Hong Kong, Dim Sum market etc), tapping a diverse investor base
Funding Base Deals can be done on a reverse enquiry basis
Private placement transactions can be done even with the single investor
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Size US$ 200mm or more (one tranche) US$500mm or more (one tranche)
Liquidity Lower than that available in 144A format Greater liquidity
Tenors Typically maximum tenor of 10 years Typically maximum tenor of 30 years
Asian and European Institutional Investors & US US Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs); Asian and European Institutional Investors
Investors
offshore accounts – broader distribution
Listing Venue or Generally listed on local and/or international exchanges, U.S. QIBs will accept an international listing such as London, Luxembourg, Hong
Exchange such as Singapore, London, Luxembourg or Hong Kong Kong or Singapore
Ongoing
As required by the relevant stock exchange (generally
disclosure As per Reg S offering
annual reports, interim statements and material events)
requirements
Typically limited to legal opinions from one local and
Market practice generally requires from two local and two international counsels
Legal Opinions one international counsel as to enforceability of legal
10b-5 letters providing negative assurance as to the disclosure
documents, and Issuer’s capacity and authority to issue
Auditor’s Comfort
ICMA Standard comfort letter SAS 72 and SAS 72 “lookalike” comfort letters
Letters
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Execution Process
The bond execution process is comprised of multiple different workstreams which are managed in parallel to ensure the
fastest, most efficient, time to market
Offering Structuring /
Due Diligence Rating Roadshow Sales / Distribution
Memorandum Documentation
Pricing /
Commercial Risk Factors Transaction Docs Logistics
Allocation
Preparation of DD Address rating agency Three year historical Preparation of Preparation of Target key accounts
questionnaire questions on operations' financials and interims transaction docs; Pricing Roadshow Presentation
Maximize distribution to
and guarantee (inc. discussion and Supplement;
1-2 day calls / meetings Organization of widest possible account
documents analysis) Subscription Agreement
with senior management roadshow logistics and drive tight pricing
etc
Audit process & timing (investor invites / flights
Facilitates effective OM
/ hotels etc)
drafting Comfort letters
Investor Q&A prepared
Legal DD material
to aid the company in
provided by legal
answering potential
counsel
investor questions
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Liaises with Issuer’s auditors and Domestic legal counsel with respect to comfort letter and legal opinions
International Legal Assists the Lead Manager in conducting due diligence in relation to Issuer
Counsel – Lead Manager Prepares and negotiates the relevant legal documentation (key documents include the terms and conditions of the Bonds, the subscription
& Bookrunner agreement, and the trust deed / fiscal agency agreement) on behalf of the Lead Manager
Coordinates the listing of the Bonds with the Listing Agent, and Signing and Closing
Delivers legal opinion relating to the relevant legal documentation
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Domestic Legal Counsel Assists with the local regulatory applications and delivers domestic law legal opinion
– Issuer Drafts documentation with respect to domestic law
Domestic Legal Counsel Assists the Lead Manager in conducting due diligence in relation to the Issuer
– Lead Manager &
Bookrunner Delivers domestic law legal opinion
Can either have a Trustee or a Fiscal Agent; also acts as Registrar and Common Depository
Reviews Offering Circular, Trust Deed / Fiscal Agency Agreement and all supporting documents
Initial establishment of the account & attendance at the Common Depositary pre-closing and closing
Trustee & Paying Agent / Establishment and maintenance of Noteholder register and tranche accounts as applicable
Listing Agent Payment of annual, semi-annual or quarterly interest and principal
Responding to Bondholder’s enquiries
Maintenance of Bonds on behalf of the Clearing Systems
Liaises with relevant Stock Exchange for listing of Bonds, includes submission of listing application along with OC
The Issuer’s existing auditor who verifies financial information included in the OC, and provides comfort letter as to changes since the last audited or
reviewed accounts
Auditor
Provides comfort letter after pricing (when the subscription agreement is signed)
Also provides bring down comfort letter upon issuance of the Bonds (i.e. Settlement)
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Key Documents
The Offering Circular (also called a prospectus) is a legal document offering securities for sale and is used to market the credit and transaction to investors
Also designed to ensure potential investors have a full and proper understanding of the Issuer’s business, financial condition, prospects and risks
Should contain all information that is material to an investor’s decision to purchase the Bonds
Typically follows the following format:
Summaries of the Issuer (& Guarantor if applicable), Financials and terms of the Offering
Risk Factors (risks specific to Issuer’s business, the industry, the country and also the Bonds)
Use of Proceeds
Capitalization table
Offering Illustration of Issuer’s group structure
Circular Description of the Issuer’s business
Industry Overview
Relationship with the Government
Terms & Conditions of the Bonds
Management Discussion and Analysis (three full year financial performance)
Taxation
Selling Restrictions
General Information
Financial statements and auditor’s reports
If there is an MTN Programme OC already in place, Issuer’s can access markets on the basis of Pricing Supplement and Note OC (if required)
An agreement between the Issuer and the Lead Manager relating to the subscription of the issue. It documents the following:
Issuer’s agreement to issue Bonds and complete the required documentation
Agreement by the Lead Manager in respect of subscription
Stabilization of the Bonds post issuance
Purchase Listing of the Bonds
Agreement Representations & Warranties as well as Undertakings and an indemnity from the Issuer to the Lead Managers
Conditions Precedent
Lead Managers’ fees and expenses
Termination events
Governing Law & Selling Restrictions
These are letters from the Issuer’s auditors addressed to the Lead Manager dated on each of the signing and closing dates addressing the following points
Confirmation of accurate extraction or calculation of financial information in the Offering Circular
Comfort Confirmation of no adverse change in certain financial line items since the date of the most recent financial statements – this is called “negative assurance”
Letters
For 144A / Reg S transactions, SAS 72 compliant comfort letter will be delivered
Auditors may need to undertake a limited review of financials if the issue date of the Bonds will be more than 135 days after the date of the last audited financials
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Position Credit A variety of marketing tools will be utilised including a physical international roadshow, Net roadshow and investor conference calls
Profile The credit story will be communicated to potential investors effectively and any credit issues will be addressed
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Deal Roadshow
Deal Roadshow
Post mandate announcement, Issuers conduct a deal roadshow to provide business updates to investors. For Issuers, such
as EXIM, who are already familiar to the investor community can also consider intra-day execution
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Day 1 Singapore Bond Meetings 07:30 Private Breakfast 07:30 Private Breakfast
The schedule is flexible and can be tailored to suit the travelling team. SCB will organize all logistics and leverage our sales team’s relationships to target and
secure a strong line-up of key investors for management to meet
SCB will also assist the management in preparing an extensive investor presentation, which can be carried by the management for the investor meetings
For other financial centers not visited on the physical roadshow, conference calls can be organized
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Debut issuance requires extensive investor education which is initiated with understanding of credit, engagement with management
and detailed discussion at investor
Investors benchmark issuer with existing comparable either in the country or in the region (specifically Emerging Market complex) and
basis Relative Value, asset strength and other softer aspects as Corporate Governance, management quality arrive at fair value from
issuance perspective
Debut Issuance
Investors engage with Sales desk of Banks to have any queries addressed or any specific parameters they need to consider for
assigning fair value to the issuance. Investor credit team and portfolio manager are extensively involved in evaluating and assigning
value to the credit
Considering this being debut issuance and in the event it could be frequent borrower, investors could expect slight premium vis a vis
Fair value, specifically considering extensive credit work done at investor end
Repeat issuers are normally priced basis existing secondary benchmark curve (parameters as explained in the next slide)
Investors holding instruments are consistently monitored on financial & operational performance. However, repeat issuance further
provides investors an opportunity to understand business environment and management plans
Investors adapt methodology such as curve extension, comparable curve differential analysis for arriving at Fair Value for the
Repeat issuance
Issuance
Investors further look at existing market conditions and consider parameters such as New Issue Premium for arriving pricing views
Investors consistently engage with Sales team to understand these parameters and accordingly arrive at pricing views
Structural features such as an amortizing bond, odd tenor could lead to investor seeking slight premium from pricing perspective,
considering impact of these structural features impacting overall asset portfolio of investors
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Target Investors
Long tenor real money investors. Preference is to participate in longer tenor offering (preferably 10 years or
more)
Insurance
In terms of appetite preference remains towards substantial allocation and one of the held to maturity
investors. One of the anchor supports for follow on offering even in volatile market conditions
Pension / Another key real money investors and prefer to remain invested in the longer end of the curve
Sovereign
Hold to maturity investors and focus on building long term relationship
Wealth Fund
Deepest liquidity pool and on majority of trades maximum allocations is towards this investor segment
Mutual Funds
Preference for tenor is 5 years and remains one of active participants in the secondary markets
Hedge funds are typically short term investors which provide momentum to primary book as well as strong
secondary market participation
Hedge Funds
Tenor preference remains upto 5 years and we are seeing some of Hedge Funds being core investors in
primary offerings
Relatively smaller investor liquidity pool and investment either via trading desk or loan in the form of bonds
Banks
Preference remains shorter end of the curve and substantial liquidity pool on FRN structures
Private Banks provide strong momentum to the books and tenor preference remains upto 5 years
Private Banks Private Banks demand in driven on leverage provided to them and are one of the active participants in the
secondary markets
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Los Angeles
Pimco Doubleline Singapore
Guggenheim Payden Aberdeen Lion Global
WAMCO Capital Group AIA Loomis Sayles
TCW Pacific Life Allianz MS IM
Amundi MUTB
Europe Ashmore Neuberger Berman
Aberdeen / Standard Life Barings EMSO Investec AM PenSam Blackrock Nikko AM
Amundi / Pioneer BMO Fidelity London Jupiter AM Rogge BOS PB NN Investment
Ashmore Candriam AM Finisterre KBC AM Spinnaker Cathay United Bank Nomura AM
Aventicum Carmignac First State Investment Legal & General Stone Harbour Citi PB Pictet AM
Aviva Danske Fisch AM M&G Suva CSAM PIMCO
AXA Investments DekaInvest GAM Moore Capital SwissKanto / ZKB Eastspring Schroders
Banca IMI Delta Lloyd GLG Muzinich Capital Threadneedle Fullerton UBS GAM
Bluebay DWS Henderson Observatory Capital Union Investment GSAM UOB AM
Bluecrest Eurizon Capital Insight IM Pinebridge Vontobel AM GIC WAMCO
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Transaction Highlights
On Monday, 6th January 2020, Standard Chartered Bank (“Standard Chartered”) has successfully priced a USD 1 billion Fixed Rate Senior Unsecured 144A / Reg S issuance for Export-Import
Bank of India (“EXIM” or the “Issuer”) for 10 year tenor, at CT10 + 150 bps. The issuance achieved several milestones, namely:
✓ Lowest ever coupon for a USD 10 year issuance from an Indian issuer
✓ Tight pricing with zero new issue premium - remarkable achievement considering significantly weaker market backdrop owing to geopolitical tensions
✓ First single tranche USD 1 billion issuance from India since EXIM Bank’s USD issuance in 2018
✓ Market opening trade from India, also marking the first G3 issuance from a Asia Policy Institution and the largest FI issuance from Asia this year
Meeting the Client’s Key Objective – Being the third 144A / Reg S transaction, EXIM India had multiple targets in mind including establishing a liquid, tightly priced 10 yr benchmark with high quality
investor participation across Asia, Europe and US. The pricing of CT10 + 150 bps achieved was at the fair value of EXIM’s secondary bonds and well inside the initial price guidance of CT10 + 175 bps
area, representing significant price tightening of 25bps, which was a remarkable feat given the weak market backdrop on the back of geopolitical tensions. The transaction was able to achieve the lowest
headline coupon for a 10year USD issuance by an Indian entity. The quasi sovereign nature of issuer, EMBIG index eligibility of the notes, scarcity of quality FI paper in 10 year tenor from India coupled
with extensive marketing exercise by the top EXIM management in 2019 resulted in establishing the tightly priced benchmark for Indian papers.
Strong Demand from high quality Investors – Orders flowed in steadily, as soon as the transaction was announced, with strong participation witnessed from institutional investors across Asia, Europe
and US. The strong issuer demand was accentuated given good start-of-the-year liquidity in market, demand for high quality name like EXIM and EMBIG eligibility of the issuance. The transaction saw a
final order book of over 2.7 billion, achieving an oversubscription ratio of >2.7x, across over 184 accounts, including some very high quality real money names.
Astute and Well-Timed Execution Strategy – Having swiftly updated their GMTN program, client took advantage of the strong market sentiment and fresh allocation of funds in the new year to move
forward with this important transaction. This proved to be a highly successful strategy with strong orderbook and record pricing - tightest coupon ever achieved by any Indian entity in the 10 year segment.
Unparalleled Execution Capabilities – Standard Chartered acted as the Joint Bookrunner and Joint Lead Manager for the transaction. We advised the client throughout the transaction by continuously
monitoring the market and providing regular market updates to ensure EXIM Bank was well positioned to capture the strong market window. This is a repeat mandate for Standard Chartered and is further
testament to our superior execution skills. Standard Chartered has now assisted EXIM in executing 14 FCY Bond since 2011 across currencies such as USD, SGD, CNH and JPY helping them raise ~
USD 7.2 bn. The deal further cements Standard Chartered’s position as the #1 Bookrunner in Indian FCY Bond Markets reflecting our unmatched structuring and distribution capabilities.
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Transaction Highlights
On Tuesday, 5th March 2019, Standard Chartered Bank (“Standard Chartered”) has successfully priced a USD 500 million Fixed Rate Senior Unsecured Reg S only issuance for Export-Import Bank of India
(“EXIM” or the “Issuer”) for 5 year tenor, at CT5 + 140 bps. The issuance achieved several milestones, namely:
✓ Tightest spread over US Treasury for an Indian issuer in YTD2019, helping re-price the secondary Indian banks curve
✓ Tightest spread for 5Y issuance for Export-Import Bank of India ever, implying NIL new issue premium
✓ First fixed rate Reg S only public market issuance for Export-Import Bank of India since January 2016
✓ There have been five FCY IG deals in the public market which have been priced from India since start of the year and Standard Chartered is the only common bank across all trades – A testament to our
market leading CM franchise
Meeting the Client’s Key Objective – EXIM India had multiple targets in mind including establishing a liquid, tightly priced 5Y benchmark with high quality investor participation across Asia and Europe. The pricing of CT5 +
140 bps achieved was at the fair value implying zero new issue premium. The quasi sovereign nature of issuer and EMBIG index eligibility of the notes resulted in establishing the most tightly priced 5Y benchmark for EXIM,
while also re-pricing the curve for Indian papers
Strong Demand from high quality Investors – Orders flowed in steadily, as soon as the transaction was announced, with strong participation witnessed from institutional investors across Asia and Europe including some
very high quality real money names. The strong issuer demand was accentuated given demand for high quality name like EXIM and EMBIG eligibility of the issuance. The transaction saw a final order book of over USD 1.7
billion, achieving an oversubscription ratio of >3.4x, across over 117 accounts. The final allocation had 87% participation from Asia and 13% from Europe/Offshore US with 44% investment from fund managers and asset
managers, 29% from banks, 20% from insurance and sovereign wealth funds and 7% from private banks
Astute and Well-Timed Execution Strategy – Having updated their GMTN program in September 2018, client took advantage of the strong market sentiment to move forward with this important transaction. The transaction
necessitated swift and tactful execution, given the geopolitical tensions associated with India in the days leading up to the transaction. Issuer decided to launch the transaction via an intraday execution at Asia morning on
Tuesday, March 5, post easing of the geopolitical tensions, to achieve best possible execution in terms of price and size. This proved to be a highly successful strategy with strong orderbook and record pricing - tightest
spread over treasury for EXIM in the 5 year segment
Unparalleled Execution Capabilities – Standard Chartered acted as the Joint Bookrunner and Joint Lead Manager for the transaction. We acted as the documentation bank for this transaction and advised the client
throughout by continuously monitoring the market and providing regular market updates to ensure EXIM Bank was well positioned to capture the right market window. This is a repeat mandate for Standard Chartered and is
further testament to our superior execution skills. Standard Chartered has now assisted EXIM in executing 12 FCY Bond since 2011 across currencies such as USD, SGD, CNH and JPY helping them raise ~ USD 6.1 bn
Cementing the #1 Position of Standard Chartered’s Capital Markets Franchise – The deal further cements Standard Chartered’s position as the #1 Bookrunner in South Asian FCY Bond Markets reflecting our
unmatched structuring and distribution capabilities. There have been five FCY IG deals in the public market which have been priced from India since start of the year and Standard Chartered is the only common bank across
all trades
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Starting the year on a promising note The COVID meltdown Path to recovery
The year started out on a strong note with The full impact of the pandemic came into the With economic lockdown across geographies and supply chain disruptions we saw
Asia ex-Japan G3 issuance volumes at ~ picture towards the last week of February as the Central Banks across geographies responding to this crisis with “whatever it takes”
$46BN in Jan 2020, marking the largest COVID19 cases started emerging in Europe and measures, including significant rate cuts and balance sheet measures.
Jan on record (+45% up from 2019 and US. We started seeing risk assets coming under Global investor base drew strong comfort from proactive actions taken by Central
+34% up from the previous record holder pressure with stocks/ commodities selling off. Banks. We saw March being a record month from primary issuance perspective in
Jan’18). Toward mid-March, moves in risk assets and the US. In terms of supply we saw >$261bn of IG USD supply in March 2020, vs
Demand for Indian credit was strong secondary technical were unprecedented. We previous monthly record of $177bn in May 2016, demonstrating strong investor
despite the expectations of high issuance saw long dated Treasury yields declining to their interest specifically towards developed markets issuers.
volumes from India during the previous all-time lowest levels (to give a perspective, at the The market rally slowly spilled over to Emerging Markets space including Asia.
year, which encouraged a number of first- start of the year consensus forecast of 10Y US Towards the end of March, we saw a market opening trade from Asia by AIA after a
time issuers to tap the markets and receive treasuries for Q12020 was 1.50%, whereas we 3-week hiatus.
a strong response from investors. saw the 10Y UST drop to 0.54% on 9th March
Since reopening of trade from Asia, there have been over 559 G3 tranches priced in
With travel restrictions coming into place, and end the quarter at 0.67%).
the region for an overall volume of over $257bn (2.8% higher on a year-on-year
from a marketing standpoint we saw The US Volatility Index also reached an all time basis), which points towards the strong liquidity that the market has seen, despite
executions moving to “investor-calls” with highs of 82.7. Of particular concern were the periodic volatility on account of the US Presidential elections and ongoing
no more face to face meeting and magnitude of the actual outflows in both IG and development on the vaccine front
therefore, issuers were able to hit markets HY and the amount of selling by real-money in
quicker than in the past. anticipation of potential additional outflow.
Treasury yields rose as investors remain optimistic over a possible vaccine and stimulus talks Volatility declined owing to strong economic data and vaccine possibility
1.6
50
1.2
0.8 0.94
30
0.4 0.41 21.17
0.0 10
Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20
In the weeks leading up to the US election, the UST yield curve (5Y/30Y) steepened to the widest The top-down environment is likely to be positive for risk assets in 2021, with the
spread since late 2016. US rates volatility also increased. The growing fear in the rates market was macro backdrop supporting EM hard-currency debt. While a vaccine is unlikely
that a Democratic clean sweep of the White House and Congress would lead to a fiscal spending to be widely available before H2-2021, it should support economic normalisation
programme of as much as USD 3.9tn. The prospect of such a supply increase, along with growing and boost EM credits.
inflation expectations, contributed to growing fears of a surge in long-term interest rates. With global rates remaining well-anchored in a low-growth environment, we
Post the volatility seen in the past few months on account of the pandemic and uncertainty around US expect healthy inflows to EM hard-currency debt in 2021 which would provide
Presidential Elections, the markets have witnessed a tilt towards risk-on mode following Joe Biden investors with a healthy pickup in terms of yields.
being elected as the 46th President of the US and positive developments on the vaccine front. In the current supportive environment – with a large amount of cash still on the
Recent vaccine progress is a potential game-changer, as a result of which we have seen a strong rally sidelines and a sizeable USD 15.7tn of negative-yielding debt globally – we
in US equities (which have marked all-time highs in the last few weeks) expect investors to continue to favour allocations to EM.
10Y UST yields have risen towards 1% in recent trading sessions as a result of vaccine-driven We believe the continued recovery in EM assets will be driven by three factors:
optimism and talks around a new stimulus deal. However, in the near-term, we expect COVID-related (1) a decline in risk premia, (2) a resurgence of capital inflows in search of higher
growth concerns to more than offset vaccine-driven optimism about a return to economic normalcy, returns, and (3) low inflation, which will allow central banks to keep monetary
preventing 10Y USTs from going higher than 1%. policy loose even as fiscal stimulus is deployed to support the recovery.
The volatility index has declined to 21.2, amongst the lowest seen since the start of the crisis. Further, We have seen very limited issuances in the FI space from India this year, which
we have seen that the credit spreads are back to pre-COVID levels on the IG side with iTraxx AeJ IG is expected to boost the investor demand for paper from high-quality FI Issuers.
5Y trading at 58 (against highs of over 220 seen in April and pre-COVID levels of c.52) Further, from an Issuer perspective, with spreads over USTs within touching
distance of their levels at the beginning of the year and spreads between Mid-
Fund flows for the week ended 27 November suggested that EM funds continue to see strong flow swaps and USTs increasing, provides an opportunity for Issuers to raise funding
momentum as support from institutional funds and ETF’s contributed to weekly flows. at attractive spreads over Mid-swaps.
Asian credit spreads tightened Spread differential between UST and Mid-swaps has increased over the past year
800 3 Differential between 3Y UST and MS 2.0
Itraxx Asia IG Itraxx Asia Sov EMBI
Credit Default Swap
600
2
400 1.0
353
1
200
137
58 0 0.0
0
Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Dec-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Nov-20
1.68
▪ US Senate Majority Leader Mitch
Yield (%)
Yield (%)
8 1.6
McConnell said on Wednesday
that lawmakers were still striving
for agreement on COVID-19 aid, 6 1.2
as a bipartisan group released 0.94
details of their proposal and the 4 0.8
U.S. House of Representatives
prepared to vote on a one-week
2 1.68 0.4 0.40
funding bill to provide more time
for a deal 0.94
0.40 0.0
0
Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20
▪ On the data front, Weekly 1983 1989 1995 2001 2008 2014 2020
Mortgage Application for the week Volatility gained on the hopes of a stimulus package and
ending Dec 4, witnessed a 1.2% positive news on the Covid-19 vaccine
decline as the year end
Consensus Forecast: Key Economic Data and Rates
approaching, however, Refinance 90
VIX: Market estimate of
applications bounced back for a Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
future volatility, based on the % Current
rare 2020 decrease, with the 80 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021
weighted average of the
Refinance Index increasing by 2%. implied volatilities of options
Refinances are still up 89% y-o-y, 70 Fed Funds
traded on the CBOE 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
continuing to power the majority of Target Rate
Volatility (%)
mortgage transactions. 60
Meanwhile, the seasonally 2Y UST 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.35
adjusted Purchase Index 50
10Y UST 0.94 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.40
decreased by 5% and saw a 29%
increased on an unadjusted basis. 40
The Purchase Index was 22% y-o- % 2019 2020 2021 2022
y 30
US GDP 2.20 -3.70 2.10 3.80
20 22.27
960
840
Spreads (bps)
720
600
480
404
360
240 242
120 110
48
0
Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20
bn)
22
21 22 23 22
150 22 20 20 21 20 19
17 1818
17
15 16
14 13 14
12 13
100 11 12 11 10
11 9 8
50
130 141 204 173 204 335 268 339 335 346
0 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 2020 JFMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JASOND
YTD YTD
S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31 28 28 29 30 31
1 Jan New Year's Day 1 Jan New Year's Day 1 Jan New Year's Day 1 Jan New Year's Day 27 Jan 21 Jan 8 Jan 4 Feb
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Global Disclaimer
Global Disclaimer (page 1 of 2)
Regulatory Disclosure:- Korea: This document is being distributed in Korea by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Securities Korea
Banking activities may be carried out internationally by Standard Chartered Bank, its branches, representatives, Limited which is regulated by the Financial Supervisory Service.
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