BHN 6 Dan 7

Random Variable and
Probability Distribution
Pertemuan 6
Statistika dan Probabilitas
Outline
 Definition of a Random Variable
 Discrete Random Variables
 Continuous Random Variables
 Expected Value and Variances of Random
Variables
 Binomial Distributions
 Poisson Distributions
 Normal Distributions
 Geometric Distributions
Fin500J Topic 10 Fall 2010 Olin Business School 2

Random Variable -
• A numerical variable whose value depends on
the outcome of aA chance experiment
researcher might be interested in the number of broken
concrete cylinder
• Associates a numerical value with OR
each
An environmental scientist might be interested in the amount of
outcome of a chance experiment ozone in an air sample.
• Two types of random variables

• Discrete
• Continuous
Since these values change and are subject to some

uncertainty, these are examples of random variables.
https://slideplayer.com/slide/3168293/
Definition of a Random Variable
• A random variable is a real valued function defined on a sample space
S. In a particular experiment, a random variable X would be some
function that assigns a real number X(s) for each possible outcomes  S
• A discrete random variable can take a countable number of values.

• Number of steps to the top of the Eiffel Tower*
• A continuous random variable can take any value along a given
interval of a number line.
• The time a tourist stays at the top
once s/he gets there
* The answer ranges from 1,652 to 1,789. See Great Buildings
Fin500J Topic 10 Fall 2010 Olin Business School

4
Variabel Random Diskrit
Adaptasi dari Sutarto:n,d:s:10)
Variabel random dan ruang sampelnya disebut ruang sampel

random diskrit
Nilai yang Mungkin
Percobaan Variabel Random diskrit
Terjadi
Menguji 25 benda uji beton Banyaknya cacat 0, 1, 2, ... , 25
Menjawab 50 pertanyaan Banyaknya jawaban yang 0, 1, 2, ..., 50

salah
Banyaknya truk yang Banyaknya truk 0, 1, 2, ... , ∞

melintas di jalan tol pada
jam 11 siang -4 sore
Variabel Random Kontinu
Adaptasi dari Sutarto:n,d:s:10)
Variabel random yang dapat mempunyai nilai-nilai yang berhubungan
dengan setiap titik dalam satu atau lebih interval (range) dimana
nilai-nilai tersebut tidak terbatas (infinite) dan tidak dapat
dibilang (uncountable)
Nilai yang Mungkin

Percobaan Variabel Random
Terjadi
Mengukur Berat 60 orang Berat 45.6, 77, 58,2, …
Mengukur usia hidup Suatu Jam 403.9, 675, …

bagian
Mengukur Waktu Inter-arrival Time 0, 1.3, 2.78, …

kedatangan
kereta
Two Types of Random Variables:
• Discrete – its set of possibleInvalues is awe will look at
this chapter,
collection of isolated points along a number
different distributions of
discrete and continuous random
line variables.
This is typically a “count” of

something
• Continuous - its set of possible values includes
an entire interval on a number line
This is typically a “measure” of
something
Identify the following variables as discrete or
continuous
1. The number of broken concrete cylinder in
each experiment
Discrete
2. The amount of ozone in samples of air
Continuous
3. The weight of a pineapple
Continuous
4. The amount of time a customer spends in a
store
Continuous
5. The number of gas pumps in use
Discrete
Example 1
• Ulala mengerjakan 6 buah soal statistika.
• Jika diasumsikan Variabel acak X menyatakan banyak soal
yang dikerjakan dengan benar maka hasil yang mungkin untuk
X adalah
a) {1,2,3,4,5,6}
b) {0,1,2,3,4,5,6}
c) {2,4,6}
d) {1,3,5}
Example 2
• Zoro melempar dua buah dadu bersamaan.
• Jika variabel acak X menyatakan jumlah mata dadu yang
muncul, maka X= ...
a) {1,2,3,4,5,6}
b) {0,1,2,3,4,5}
c) {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}
d) {2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12}
Example 3
• Jumlah kendaraan yang melewati Jl. Dr.mansyur bersifat?
a) Variabel diskrit
b) Variabel Kontinu
Example 4
• Identifikasi apakah percobaan ini melibatkan variable acak
diskrit ataukah variable acak kontinu?
• Mengukur jarak yang ditempuh oleh Truk yang berbeda

melintas di jalan tol menggunakan 22 liter solar
• A) variable acak diskrit

• B) variable acak kontinu
Example 5
• X menyatakan waktu yang diperlukan untuk menyelesaikan
tugas perencanaan jalan raya selama kurun waktu 3 bulan.
Berapa kira2 value yang mungkin untuk X ?
a) X < 3 bulan
b) 0 < X < 3 bulan
c) X > 3 bulan
d) Tidak ada jawaban yang benar
Example 6
• Manakah pilihan berikut yang merupakan variabel acak diskrit?
a) Jumlah rata-rata air per minggu yang dipakai pada sebuah
proyek pembangunan gedung 3 lantai di kota Yogyakarta
b) Jumlah cat yang digunakan dalam renovasi Gedung
c) Jumlah mandor di proyek pembangunan mushola yang ada di
USU.
d) Tidak ada jawaban yang benar
Applications of Discrete random
variable in Civil
Engineering
Source:Chandio H, 2016 https://www.slideshare.net/EngrHabiburRehmanCha/applications-of-random-variable:7

Applications 1
 Jika kita ingin mencari beban pada suatu titik tertentu pada
balok, kita dapat menggunakan fungsi diskrit untuk mencari
pembebanan pada setiap titik pada balok.
 Misalkan pembebanan pada balok yang panjang dan tipis
menempatkan massa hanya pada titik-titik diskrit.
 Pembebanan dapat dijelaskan dengan fungsi yang
menentukan massa pada setiap titik diskrit.
 Demikian pula, untuk variabel acak diskrit X, distribusinya
dapat dijelaskan oleh fungsi yang menentukan probabilitas
pada setiap nilai diskrit yang mungkin untuk X.
Source:translated from Chandio H, 2016 https://www.slideshare.net/EngrHabiburRehmanCha/applications-of-random-variable:9

Application 2
 Statisticians use sampling plans to either accept or

reject batches or lots of construction material.
 Suppose one of these sampling plans involves
sampling independently 10 items from a lot of 100
items in which 12 are defective.

Applications of Continuous
Variables in Civil engineering
Application 1
 Task completion time

 Suppose a construction project to be completed in 20
to 24 months and its probability is 0.05.
 There are infinite sample space between 20 to
24 month.

Application 2
 Besarnya beban yang diterapkan pada sistem

struktur
 Pada saat tertentu dalam sebuah bangunan kita
tidak dapat menghitung beban pada atapnya.
 Kita hanya dapat mengasumsikan kisaran beban di
atapnya saat merancang , jadi itu juga adalah
variabel acak kontinu

Cont’d
• Probability distribution:-consists of a value

a random variable can assume and the
corresponding probabilities of the values
• Probability distribution can be discrete or
continues.
• Discrete probability distribution:- A table
used to specify all possible values of the
discrete random variable X along with their
respective probabilities.
21
https://www.academia.edu/15830606/Random_variables_and_probability_distributions_Sampling_Techniques
Probability Distributions for
Discrete Random Variables
Cont’d
• Example: Consider the experiment of tossing a coin three times. Let X be
the number of heads. Construct the probability distribution of X.
23
24
EXAMPLE Identifying Probability Distributions
25 Is this belongs to a probability distribution?

Answer:
0.16 + 0.18 + 0.22 + 0.10 + 0.3 + 0.01 = 0.97 <1 , Not a
probability distribution.
26
EXAMPLE Identifying Probability Distributions
Is the following a probability distribution?
27
Answer:
• 0.16 + 0.18 + 0.22 + 0.10 + 0.3 + 0.04 = 1
• It is a probability distribution
28
Discrete Probability Distribution
1) Gives the probabilities associated with each possible x value
2) Each probability is the long-run relative frequency of

occurrence of the corresponding x-value when the chance
experiment is performed a very large number of times
3) Usually displayed in a table, but can be displayed with a

histogram or formula
4) The function is called PMF.
Properties of Discrete Probability
Distributions
1) For every possible x value,

0 < P(x) < 1.
2) For all values of x,

S P(x) = 1.
Continuous Random Variables
Consider the random variable:
x = the weight (in pounds) of a full-term
newborn child
Suppose that weight is reported to the nearest
pound. The following probability histogram
What type of variable is this?
displays
If the
What
weight is distribution
is the sum ofwith
measured areasof
thegreaterof weights.
allgreater
and the rectangles?
accuracy, the
histogram
The area of the rectangleapproaches
centered overa smooth curve.
7 pounds represents
Notice that the rectangles are narrower and the histogram
thearea
probability 6.5 <the
x <probability
7.5
Now suppose that weight is reported
The shaded represents 6 < x < 8.
begins to have a smoother appearance.
This is an to ofthe
example a density
nearest 0.1 pound. This would be the probability

curve.
histogram.
Continuous Variables
• Is specified by a curve called a density curve.
• The function that describes this curve is

denoted by f(x) and is called the density
function.
• The probability of observing a value in a

particular interval is the area under the curve
and above the given interval.
Properties of continuous probability
distributions
1. f(x) > 0 (the curve cannot dip below
the horizontal axis)
2. The total area under the density curve equals

one.
Let x denote the amount of gravel sold (in tons)
during a randomly selected week at a particular
sales facility. Suppose that the density curve
has a height f(x) above the value x, where
2(1 − x ) 0  x  1
f (x ) = 
0 otherwise
The density curve is
Density
shown in the figure:
2
Tons
1
Gravel problem continued . . .
What is the probability that at most ½ ton of
gravel is sold during a randomly selected week?
P(x < ½) = 1 – ½(0.5)(1) = .75

This
OR, area
more can be found
easily, by by use
finding thethe formula
area of the for the area
triangle,
The probability wouldofbe the shaded area under the curve
a trapezoid:
and above the interval from 0 to 0.5.
Density
2 1
and subtracting that area from 1.
A =1 bh
A = (2b1 + b2 )h
2
1
Tons
1
What is the probability that exactly ½ ton of
P(x = ½) = 0
TheHow do we would
probability find thebearea
the of a line
area segment?
under the curve and above
Since a line segment has NO0.5. area, then the probability
Density
that exactly ½ ton is sold equals 0.
2
Tons
1
What is the probability that less than ½ ton of
P(x < ½) = P(x < ½)

Density = 1 – ½(0.5)(1) = .75
2 Does the probability change whether the ½ is included or
Hmmm . . . This is different than
not?
discrete probability distributions
where it does change the probability
whether a value is included or not!
1
Tons
1
Other Density Curves
Some density curves resemble the one below.
Integral calculus is used to find the area under
the these curves.
Don’t worry – we will use tables (with the values
already calculated). We can also use calculators
or statistical software to find the area.
The probability that a continuous random
variable x lies between a lower limit a and an
upper limit b is
P(a < x < b) = (cumulative area

This will be usefulto the
later left
in this of b) –
chapter!
(cumulative area to the left of
a)
P(a < x < b) = P(x < b) – P(x < a)
Continuous case
▪ For example, recall the negative exponential function
(in probability, this is called an “exponential
distribution”):
f ( x) = e − x
▪ This function integrates to 1:

+ +
e
−x −x
= −e = 0 +1 =1
0
0
Source: lecture 4 https://web.stanford.edu/~kcobb/hrp259/lecture4.ppt:18

Continuous case: “probability density
function” (pdf)
p(x)=e-x
The probability that x is any exact particular value (such as 1.9976) is 0;

we can only assign probabilities to possible ranges of x.
For example, the probability of x falling within 1 to 2:
p(x)=e-x
x
1 2
2 2

−x −x
P(1  x  2) = e = −e = −e − 2 − −e −1 = −.135 + .368 = .23
1
1
Practice Problem
Which of the following are probability functions?
a. f(x)=.25 for x=9,10,11,12
b. f(x)= (3-x)/2 for x=1,2,3,4
c. f(x)= (x2+x+1)/25 for x=0,1,2,3

Answer (a)
a. f(x)=.25 for x=9,10,11,12

x f(x) Yes, probability
function!
9 .25
10 .25
11 .25
12 .25
1.0
Answer (b)
b. f(x)= (3-x)/2 for x=1,2,3,4
x f(x)
Though this sums to 1,
1 (3-1)/2=1.0 you can’t have a negative
probability; therefore, it’s
2 (3-2)/2=.5 not a probability
function.
3 (3-3)/2=0
4 (3-4)/2=-.5

Answer (c)
c. f(x)= (x2+x+1)/25 for x=0,1,2,3
x f(x)
0 1/25
1 3/25 Doesn’t sum to 1. Thus,
2 7/25 it’s not a probability
function.
3 13/25
24/25
Practice Problem:
• The number of ships to arrive at a harbor on
any given day is a random variable
represented by x. The probability distribution
for x is: x 10 11 12 13 14
P(x) .4 .2 .2 .1 .1
Find the probability that on a given day:

a. exactly 14 ships arrive p(x=14)= .1
b. At least 12 ships arrive p(x12)= (.2 + .1 +.1) = .4
c. At most 11 ships arrive p(x≤11)= (.4 +.2) = .6

Practice Problem:
You are lecturing to a group of 1000 students. You
ask them to each randomly pick an integer between
1 and 10. Assuming, their picks are truly random:
• What’s your best guess for how many students picked the
number 9?
Since p(x=9) = 1/10, we’d expect about 1/10th of the 1000
students to pick 9. 100 students.
• What percentage of the students would you expect picked

a number less than or equal to 6?
Since p(x≤ 6) = 1/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 =.6 60%

Means and Standard Deviations of Probability
Distributions
• The mean value of a random variable x,
denoted by mx, describes where the
probability distribution of x is centered.
• The standard deviation of a random variable x,

denoted by sx, describes variability in the
probability distribution
Expected value, or mean
• Jika kita memahami fungsi probabilitas yang mendasari
fenomena tertentu, maka kita dapat membuat keputusan
berdasarkan informasi berdasarkan bagaimana kita
mengharapkan x untuk berperilaku rata-rata dalam jangka
panjang… (disebut teori probabilitas "frekuensi").
• Nilai harapan(expected value) merupakan rata-rata
tertimbang atau mean (µ) dari variabel acak x.
• Bayangkan menempatkan massa p(x) di titik X pada balok;
titik keseimbangan balok adalah nilai yang diharapkan dari
x.
Source:translation from lecture 4 https://web.stanford.edu/~kcobb/hrp259/lecture4.ppt:29

Mean and Variance for Discrete Probability
Distributions
• Mean is sometimes referred to as the
expected value (denoted E(x)).
μ x =  xp
• Variance is calculated using
s =  (x − mx ) p
2 2
• Standard deviation is the square root of the

variance.
Example: expected value of discrete
• Recall the following probability distribution of

ship arrivals:
x 10 11 12 13 14
P(x) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
 x p( x) = 10(.4) + 11(.2) + 12(.2) + 13(.1) + 14(.1) = 11.3

i =1
i

Variance and Standard
Deviation
• Variance of a discrete random variable X
σ = E(X − μ) =  (x − μ) P(x)
2 2 2
• Standard Deviation of a discrete random

variable X
σ = σ2 = 
x
(x − μ)2
P(x)
Source: Irwan Yuwono, 2016 https://slideplayer.info/slide/10692117/: 9

Standard Deviation Example
• Example: Toss 2 coins, X = # heads,

compute standard deviation (recall E(x) = 1)
σ= x
(x − μ)2
P(x)
σ = (0 − 1)2 (.25) + (1− 1)2 (.50) + (2 − 1)2 (.25) = .50 = .707
Possible number of heads

= 0, 1, or 2
Expected value and 56
Variance
x p(x) x p(x) x–m (x – m)  (x – m) p(x)
0 .25 0 –1.00 1.00 .25

1 .50 .50 0 0 0
2 .25 .50 1.00 1.00 .25
m = 1.0 s = 
s = 
Sumber: Sutarto,n.d.: 17
Mean and Variance for Continuous Random
Variables
For continuous probability distributions, mx and sx can be defined and
computed using methods from calculus.
• The mean value mx locates the center of the continuous

distribution.
• The standard deviation, sx, measures the extent to which

the continuous distribution spreads out around mx.
A company receives concrete of a certain type
from two different suppliers.
Let x = compression strength of a randomly selected
batch
The first supplierfrom Supplier
is preferred 1
to the second both in terms of
mean value and variability.
y = compression strength of a randomly selected
batch from Supplier 2
Suppose that
mx = 4650 pounds/inch2 sx = 200 pounds/inch2
my = 4500 pounds/inch2 sy = 275 pounds/inch2
4300 4500 4700 4900
my mx
Cumulative distribution function
(CDF)
1.0 P(x)
5/6
2/3
1/2
1/3
1/6
1 2 3 4 5 6 x

x P(x≤A)
1 P(x≤1)=1/6
2 P(x≤2)=2/6
3 P(x≤3)=3/6
4 P(x≤4)=4/6
5 P(x≤5)=5/6
6 P(x≤6)=6/6

Examples
1. What’s the probability that you roll a 3 or less?
P(x≤3)=1/2
2. What’s the probability that you roll a 5 or higher?

P(x≥5) = 1 – P(x≤4) = 1-2/3 = 1/3

Cumulative Probability Function
• The cumulative probability function,

denoted F(x0), shows the probability that X
is less than or equal to x0
F(x0 ) = P(X  x0 )
• In other words,
F(x 0 ) =  P(x)
x x0

As in the discrete case, we can specify the “cumulative

distribution function” (CDF):
The CDF here = P(x≤A)=
A A

−x −x
e = −e = −e − A − −e 0 = −e − A + 1 = 1 − e − A
0
0

Example
p(x)
2 x
−2
P(x  2) = 1 - e = 1 - .135 = .865
Distribusi Kumulatif Peluang Diskrit
• Distribusi Kumulatif F(x) suatu variable acak. X dengan distribusi peluang f(x) :
F(x) = P(X< x) = t < σ𝑡<𝑥 𝑓(𝑡)
Contoh:
Cari rumus distribusi probabilitas untuk jumlah muka bila satu mata uang dilempar 4
kali?
Hitung dsitribusi kumulatif variable acak X?
4
F (x) = 0 = x = 0,1,2,3,4
16
1
F(0) =
16
1
f(1)=
4
3
f(2)=
8
1 1
f(3) = f(4) =
8 16
Sumber: Putranto, 2017

Distribusi Probabilitas Kontinu Kumulatif
Sumber : Syafiie, n.d, III-4-5

Distribusi probabilitas Kontinu Kumulatif
Sumber : Syafiie, n.d, III-4-5

The Binomial Distribution
Probability
Distributions
Discrete
Probability
Distributions
Binomial
Poisson

Possible Binomial Distribution
Settings
• A steel manufacturer labels items as either
defective or acceptable
• A firm bidding for contracts will either get a
contract or not
• A marketing research firm receives survey
responses of “yes I will buy” or “no I will not”
• New job applicants either accept the offer or
reject it

Fungsi Distribusi Probabilitas
Binomial
 n  x n− x n!
p(x) =   p q = p x (1− p)n− x
 x x! (n − x)!
p = probabilitas terjadinya sukses dalam percobaan
tunggal
q = 1- p
n = banyaknya percobaan
x = banyaknya sukses dalam n kali percobaan
n – x = banyaknya gagal dalam n kali percobaan
Binomial Distribution Formula
n! X n−X
P(x) = P (1- P)
x ! (n − x )!
P(x) = Peluang x sukses dari n trial, n-x gagal
Contoh: Menjawab lima soal B-S,
x = # jawaban benar:
n=5
P = 0.5
1 - P = (1 - 0.5) = 0.5
x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4,5
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Coefficient
Source: https://www.slideshare.net/mrraymondstats/random-variables: 19
Berapa probabilitas benar satu soal ?
x = 1, n = 5, and P = 0.5
n!
P(x = 1) = P X (1 − P) n − X
x!(n − x)!
5!
= (0.5)1 (1 − 0.5)5−1
1!(5 − 1)!
= (5)(0.5)(0.0625)4

• Bentuk dari distribusi binomial berdasar nilai p
dan n
Mean P(x) n = 5 P = 0.1
.6
▪ n = 5 and P = 0.1 .4
.2
0 x
0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) n = 5 P = 0.5
▪ n = 5 and P = 0.5 .6
.4
.2
0 x
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mean and Variance
• Mean
μ = E(x) = nP
▪ Variance and Standard Deviation
σ 2 = nP(1- P)
σ = nP(1- P)
Where n = sample size
P = probability of success
(1 – P) = probability of failure

Binomial Distribution- Calculating
Binomial Probability
Binomial Characteristics
Examples
μ = nP = (5)(0.1) = 0.5
Mean P(x) n = 5 P = 0.1
.6
.4
σ = nP(1- P) = (5)(0.1)(1− 0.1) .2
= 0.6708 0 x
0 1 2 3 4 5
μ = nP = (5)(0.5) = 2.5 P(x) n = 5 P = 0.5

.6
.4
σ = nP(1- P) = (5)(0.5)(1− 0.5) .2
= 1.118 0 x
0 1 2 3 4 5

Using Binomial Tables
N x … p=.20 p=.25 p=.30 p=.35 p=.40 p=.45 p=.50
10 0 … 0.1074 0.0563 0.0282 0.0135 0.0060 0.0025 0.0010
1 … 0.2684 0.1877 0.1211 0.0725 0.0403 0.0207 0.0098
2 … 0.3020 0.2816 0.2335 0.1757 0.1209 0.0763 0.0439
3 … 0.2013 0.2503 0.2668 0.2522 0.2150 0.1665 0.1172
4 … 0.0881 0.1460 0.2001 0.2377 0.2508 0.2384 0.2051
5 … 0.0264 0.0584 0.1029 0.1536 0.2007 0.2340 0.2461
6 … 0.0055 0.0162 0.0368 0.0689 0.1115 0.1596 0.2051
7 … 0.0008 0.0031 0.0090 0.0212 0.0425 0.0746 0.1172
8 … 0.0001 0.0004 0.0014 0.0043 0.0106 0.0229 0.0439
9 … 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0016 0.0042 0.0098
10 … 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0010
Examples:
n = 10, x = 3, P = 0.35: P(x = 3|n =10, p = 0.35) = .2522
n = 10, x = 8, P = 0.45: P(x = 8|n =10, p = 0.45) = .0229

For data produced with the binomial model, the

binomial random variable is the number of
successes, X.
The probability distribution of X is a binomial
distribution
When finding binomial probabilities, remember that
you are finding the probability of obtaining k successes
in n trials
Binomial Distribution- Calculating
binomial probability
Solving Problems with Binomial Tables
MSA Electronics is experimenting with the

manufacture of a new transistor
◼ Every hour a sample of 5 transistors is taken
◼ The probability of one transistor being
defective is 0.15
What is the probability of finding 3, 4, or 5 defective?
So n = 5, p = 0.15, and r = 3, 4, or 5
We could use the formula to solve this problem, but using the table is
easier
Quantitative Analysis for Management, Tenth Edition, by Render, Stair, and Hanna Power Point slides created by Jeff Heyl
Solving Problems with Binomial
Tables
P
n r 0.05 0.10 0.15
5 0 0.7738 0.5905 0.4437
1 0.2036 0.3281 0.3915
2 0.0214 0.0729 0.1382
3 0.0011 0.0081 0.0244
4 0.0000 0.0005 0.0022
5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
Table 2.8 (partial)
We find the three probabilities in the table

for n = 5, p = 0.15, and r = 3, 4, and 5 and
add them together
Tables
P
P (3 or
n more
r 0.05 ) = P (3) + P
defects ( 4 ) + P (5 )
0.10 0.15
5 0 0.7738 = 0.0244 + 0.0022 + 0.0001
0.5905 0.4437= 0.0267
1 0.2036 0.3281 0.3915
2 0.0214 0.0729 0.1382
3 0.0011 0.0081 0.0244
4 0.0000 0.0005 0.0022
5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
Table 2.8 (partial)
We find the three probabilities in the table

for n = 5, p = 0.15, and r = 3, 4, and 5 and
add them together
Tables
It is easy to find the expected value (or mean) and

variance of a binomial distribution
Expected value (mean) = np

Variance = np(1 – p)
For the MSA example

Expected value = np = 5(0.15 ) = 0.75
Variance = np(1 − p) = 5(0.15 )(0.85 ) = 0.6375
Random Variable and
Probability Distribution
Pertemuan 7
Statistika dan Probabilitas
The Poisson Distribution
• The Poisson distribution is a discrete
distribution that is often used in queuing
models to describe arrival rates over time
 x e −
P( X ) =
X!
where
P(X) = probability of exactly X arrivals or occurrences
 = average number of arrivals per unit of time
(the mean arrival rate)
e = 2.718, the base of natural logarithms
X = specific value (0, 1, 2, 3, and so on) of the random
variable
The Poisson Distribution
• Apply the Poisson Distribution when:
• You wish to count the number of times an event
occurs in a given continuous interval
• The probability that an event occurs in one subinterval
is very small and is the same for all subintervals
• The number of events that occur in one subinterval is
independent of the number of events that occur in the
other subintervals
• There can be no more than one occurrence in each
subinterval
• The average number of events per unit is 

Poisson Distribution Formula
−λ
e λ x
P(x) =
x!
where:
x = number of successes per unit
 = expected number of successes per unit
e = base of the natural logarithm system (2.71828...)

Poisson Distribution
Characteristics
• Mean
μ = E(x) = λ
▪ Variance and Standard Deviation
σ = E[( X − m ) ] = λ
2 2
σ= λ
where  = expected number of successes per unit

Using Poisson Tables

X 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
0 0.9048 0.8187 0.7408 0.6703 0.6065 0.5488 0.4966 0.4493 0.4066

1 0.0905 0.1637 0.2222 0.2681 0.3033 0.3293 0.3476 0.3595 0.3659
2 0.0045 0.0164 0.0333 0.0536 0.0758 0.0988 0.1217 0.1438 0.1647
3 0.0002 0.0011 0.0033 0.0072 0.0126 0.0198 0.0284 0.0383 0.0494
4 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0007 0.0016 0.0030 0.0050 0.0077 0.0111
5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0007 0.0012 0.0020
6 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003
7 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Example: Find P(X = 2) if  = .50
e −  X e −0.50 (0.50)2
P( X = 2) = = = .0758
X! 2!

Graph of Poisson Probabilities
0.70
Graphically: 0.60
 = .50 0.50
= 0.40
P(x)
X 0.50
0.30
0 0.6065
0.20
1 0.3033
2 0.0758 0.10
3 0.0126 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
4 0.0016
5 0.0002 x
6 0.0000
P(X = 2) = .0758
7 0.0000

Poisson Distribution Shape
• The shape of the Poisson Distribution
depends on the parameter  :
0.70
 = 0.50 0.25
 = 3.00
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.15
0.40
P(x)
P(x)
0.30 0.10
0.20
0.05
0.10
0.00 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
x x

3. Distribusi Poisson
• Contoh soal :
• Jika rata – rata kedatangan mobil di suatu pintu gerbang tol
adalah 72 setiap jam , berapakah peluang dari x =4 kedatangan
dan t = 3 menit. Gunakan distribusi poisson!
• Jawab :
• 72 t = 1 / 20 x=4 −
e x
P( X = x) =
• x!
−72.(1 / 20 ) 4
e .(72.1 / 20)
• P ( X = 4) =
4! = 0.191 atau 19.1 %
Sumber : Kuchink, 2012:6

Contoh distribusi Poisson
Probabilitas terjadinya bleeding pada benda uji adalah
0,0005. Jika pada suatu eksperimen sebanyak 4000 benda
uji, hitunglah probabilitas tepat 3 benda uji yang akan
mengalami bleeding!
−
e  x
P( X = x) =
x!
Sumber : adaptasi Indah dkk, 2017:11-12

The Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is the most popular and
useful continuous probability distribution
• The formula for the probability density function is
rather complex
− ( x − m )2
1
f (X ) = e 2s 2
s 2
◼ The normal distribution is specified

completely when we know the mean, µ,
and the standard deviation, s
Quantitative Analysis for Management, Tenth Edition, by Render, Stair, and Hanna Power Point slides created by Jeff
Heyl
• The normal distribution is symmetrical, with
the midpoint representing the mean
• Shifting the mean does not change the shape
of the distribution
• Values on the X axis are measured in the
number of standard deviations away from the
mean
• As the standard deviation becomes larger, the
curve flattens
• As the standard deviation becomes smaller,
the curve becomes steeper
Heyl
| | |
40 µ = 50 60
Smaller µ, same s
| | |
µ = 40 50 60
Larger µ, same s
| | |
40 50 µ = 60
Figure 2.8
Heyl
Same µ, smaller s
Same µ, larger s
Figure 2.9
µ
Heyl
16% 68% 16%
–1s +1s
a µ b
2.3% 95.4% 2.3%
–2s +2s
a µ b
0.15% 99.7% 0.15%
–3s +3s
a µ b
Figure 2.10
Heyl
If IQs in the United States were normally distributed

with µ = 100 and s = 15, then
1. 68% of the population would have IQs

between 85 and 115 points (±1s)
2. 95.4% of the people have IQs between 70
and 130 (±2s)
3. 99.7% of the population have IQs in the
range from 55 to 145 points (±3s)
4. Only 16% of the people have IQs greater
than 115 points (from the first graph, the
area to the right of +1s)
Heyl
Using the Standard Normal Table
Step 1
Convert the normal distribution into a standard normal distribution
◼ A standard normal distribution has a mean of 0 and a standard
deviation of 1
◼ The new standard random variable is Z
X −m
Z=
s
where
X = value of the random variable we want to measure
µ = mean of the distribution
s = standard deviation of the distribution
Z = number of standard deviations from X to the mean, µ
Heyl
Using the Standard Normal Table
Step 2
Look up the probability from a table of normal curve areas
◼ Use Appendix A or Table 2.9 (portion below)
◼ The column on the left has Z values
◼ The row at the top has second decimal places for the Z values
AREA UNDER THE NORMAL CURVE

Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03
1.8 0.96407 0.96485 0.96562 0.96638
P(X < 130)
1.9 0.97128 0.97193 0.97257 0.97320 = (Z < 2.00)
2.0 0.97725 0.97784 0.97831 0.97882
2.1 0.98214 0.98257 0.98300 0.98341 = 97.7%
2.2 0.98610 0.98645 0.98679 0.98713
Table 2.9
Heyl
Using the Table of Standard Normal (z) Curve
Areas
• For any number z*, from -3.89 to 3.89 and
rounded to twoTo use the
decimal table:the Appendix
places,
Table 2 gives the area under the z curve and
to the leftthe
• Find of correct
z*. row and column (see
the following
P(z < example)
z*) = P(z < z*)
• The number at the intersection of
that row and column is the probability
Where
the letter z is used to represent a random variable
whose distribution is the standard normal distribution.
Suppose we are interested in the probability
that z* is less than -1.62.
In the table of areas:

P(z < -1.62) = .0526
•Find the row labeled -1.6
•Find the column labeled 0.02
.00 .01 .02 …

•Find the intersection of the row and column
z*
…
…
-1.7 .0446 .0436 .0427 .0418
-1.6 .0548 .0537 .0526 .0516
-1.5 .0668 .0655 .0643 .0618
that z* is less than 2.31.
P(z < 2.31) = .9896
z* .00 .01 .02 …

…
…
2.2 .9861 .9864 .9868 .9871
2.3 .9893 .9896 .9898 .9901
2.4 .9918 .9920 .9922 .9925
that z* is greater than 2.31.
The Table of Areas gives the area to the

P(z > 2.31) = LEFT of the z*.
1 - .9896 = .0104
To find the area to the right, subtract
the value in the table from 1
z* .00 .01 .02 …
…
…
2.2 .9861 .9864 .9868 .9871
2.3 .9893 .9896 .9898 .9901
2.4 .9918 .9920 .9922 .9925
Suppose we are interested in the finding the z*
for the smallest 2%.To find z*:
Look for the area .0200 in the body of

P(z < z*)
the= Table.
.02 Follow the row and column
Since
z* .0200out
back
= -2.08 doesn’t appear
to read in the body
the z-value.
of the Table, use the z*value closest to it.
z* .06 .07 .08 …

…
…
-2.1 … .0162 .0158 .0154
-2.0 … .0207 .0202 .0197
-1.9 … .0262 .0256 .0250
Suppose we are interested in the finding the z*
for the largest 5%.
Since .9500 is exactly between

.95 .9495
P(z > z*)and
= .05
.9505, we can average the z* for
each of these
z* = 1.645
z*
Remember the Table of Areas gives the
z*
area to the LEFT of z*.
.03 .04 .05 …
…
…
1 – (area to the right of z*)
1.5 …
Then look up this.9382
value in .9398
the body.9406
of
1.6 … the.9495 table. .9505 .9515
1.7 … .9591 .9599 .9608
Haynes Construction Company
Haynes builds three- and four-unit apartment

buildings (called triplexes and quadraplexes,
respectively).
◼ Total construction time follows a normal
distribution.
◼ For triplexes, µ = 100 days and s = 20 days.
◼ Contract calls for completion in 125 days,
and late completion will incur a severe
penalty fee.
◼ What is the probability of completing in 125
days?
Source: Lecture 2 BUS-221 Quantitative methods https://uwcentre.ac.cn/haut/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Quantitative-Methods-2.pptx:23

X −m 125 − 100
Z= = From Appendix A, for Z = 1.25
s 20 the area is 0.89435.
25 ◼ The probability is about
= = 1.25
20 0.89 that Haynes will not
violate the contract.
µ = 100 days X = 125 days

Figure 2.11
s = 20 days

Sumber : https://www.rumusstatistik.com/2015/04/tabel-z-distribusi-normal.html
Suppose that completion of a triplex in 75 days or

less will earn a bonus of $5,000.
What is the probability that Haynes will get the

bonus?

X −m 75 − 100
Z= =
s 20
But Appendix A has only
− 25 positive Z values, and the
= = −1.25
20 probability we are looking for
is in the negative tail.
P(X < 75 days)

Area of
Interest
X = 75 days µ = 100 days

Figure 2.12

X −m 75 − 100
Z= = Because the curve is
s 20 symmetrical, we can look at
− 25 the probability in the positive
= = −1.25 tail for the same distance
20
away from the mean.
P(X > 125 days)

Area of
Interest

◼ We know the probability
completing in
125 days is 0.89435.
◼ So the probability
completing in more
than 125 days is
1 – 0.89435 = 0.10565.

The probability
completing in more than
125 days is
1 – 0.89435 = 0.10565.
Going back to the

left tail of the
distribution:
X = 75 days µ = 100 days
The probability of completing in less than 75

days is 0.10565.

What is the probability of completing a triplex

within 110 and 125 days?
We know the probability of completing in 125

days, P(X < 125) = 0.89435.
We have to complete the probability of

completing in 110 days and find the area
between those two events.

Sumber : https://www.rumusstatistik.com/2015/04/tabel-z-distribusi-normal.html
X −m 110 − 100 From Appendix A, for Z = 0.5 the
Z= =
s 20 area is 0.69146.
10 P(110 < X < 125) = 0.89435 –
= = 0.5 0.69146 = 0.20289.
20
s = 20 days
µ = 100 110 125

Figure 2.13
days days days

Properties of Geometric Distributions:
• There are two mutually exclusive outcomes that result in a
success or failureSo what are the
• Each trial is independent of the others
possible values of x
• The probability of success is the same for all trials.
To infinity
A geometric random variable x is defined as
How
x = the number of trials far will
UNTIL this go?
the FIRST success is observed (
including the success).
x 1 2 3 4
. . .
Probability Formula for the Geometric
Distribution
Let
p = constant probability that any trial results in a success
x −1
p (x ) = (1 − p ) p
Where x = 1, 2, 3, …
Suppose that 40% of students who drive to
campus at your school or university carry jumper
cables. Your car has a dead battery and you don’t
have jumper cables, so you decide to stop
students as they are headed to the parking lot
and ask them whether they have a pair of jumper
cables.
Let x = the number of students stopped before
finding one with a pair of jumper cables
Is this a geometric distribution?

Yes
Jumper Cables Continued . . .
Let x = the number of students stopped before
finding one with a pair of jumper cables
p = .4
What is the probability that third student
stopped will be the first student to have jumper
cables?
P(x = 3) = (.6)2(.4) = .144
What is the probability that at most three
student are stopped before finding one with
jumper cables? P(x < 3) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) =
(.6)0(.4) + (.6)1(.4) + (.6)2(.4) = .784
4. Geometric
Distribution
Each observation falls into one of two categories,
success or failure
The variable of interest (usually X) is the number of
trials required to obtain the first success
The n observations are all independent
The probability of success, p, is the same for each
observation
Geometric Distribution
Expected Value of Geometric Distributions
If X is a geometric random variable with probability of success P

on each trial, then the mean or of the
random variable is μ= 1/p.
4. Distribusi Geometrik
• Contoh soal :
• Suatu kotak berisi 15 bola putih dan 10 bola merah, diambil sebuah bola dari kotak tersebut sampai
didapat bola merah. Jika di asumsikan pengambilan dengan pengembalian, berapa peluang
mendapat 5 bola merah? Berapa nilai harapannya?
• N=5
C110 2
p ( merah) = 25 =
CC1 5
5−1
 2
4
 2  3  2 162 μ= 1/p
P ( X = 5) = 1 −   =   = = 1/ (2/5) = 5/2
Sumber : Kuchink, 2012: 6-7  5  5   5   5  15625
5. Distribusi Hipergeometrik
Sumber : Lestari, 2018: 4 , 5

Distribusi Probabilitas
Hipergeometrik
 k  N − k 
  
n n−x  x = 0, 1, 2,, n
h(x; N , n, k ) =   ,
 N 
n
N = total banyaknya elemen

• k = banyaknya sukses dalam N elemen
• n = banyaknya elemen yang diambil
• x = banyaknya sukses yang terambil dari n elemen
Sumber : Sutarto, n.d : 58

5. Contoh soal Distribusi Hipergeometrik
Sumber : Lestari, 2018: 5

Contoh soal distribusi Hipergeometrik
• Contoh soal :
• Sekelompok orang terdiri dari 50 orang insinyur sipil dan 3 diantaranya memiliki keahlian pada
bidang struktur. Secara acak diambil 5 orang. Hitung Berapa peluang tidak ada yang memiliki
keahlian pada bidang struktur pada acak yg diambil dari 5 orang tersebut .
• Jawab :
• X = banyak orang yang memiliki keahlian pada bidang struktur., N=50, n=5
Sumber: adaptasi Kuchink, 2012:7-8

Contoh Soal Distribusi Hipergeometrik
 3  47 

1 
 4 
P (1) =    = 0,253
 50 

 5  
 
• Peluangnya adalah 0,724 bahwa ke lima orang insinyur itu tidak memiliki keahlian pada
bidang struktur
Sumber: Kuchink, 2012:7-8

Source: Stephanie Glen. "Hypergeometric Distribution: Examples and Formula" From StatisticsHowTo.com: Elementary Statistics for the rest of us! https://www.statisticshowto.com/hypergeometric-distribution-examples/
Contoh soal 2 distribusi Hipergeometrik

• A deck of cards contains 20 cards: 6 red cards and 14 black
cards. 5 cards are drawn randomly without replacement.
What is the probability that exactly 4 red cards are drawn?
• The probability of choosing exactly 4 red cards is:
P(4 red cards) = # samples with 4 red cards and 1 black card
/ # of possible 4 card samples, and so the answer will be
the above formula can be written as:

(6C4*14C1)/20C5
where
•6C4 means that out of 6 possible red cards, we are choosing 4.
•14C1 means that out of a possible 14 black cards, we’re choosing 1.
Solution = (6C4*14C1)/20C5 = 15*14/15504 = 0.0135
Contoh Soal 3 Distribusi Hipergeometrik
• A small voting district has 101 female voters and 95 male voters. A random sample of
10 voters is drawn. What is the probability exactly 7 of the voters will be female?
• C (101,7) X C (95,3) / C (196 , 10) =
•
Where:
• 101C7 is the number of ways of choosing 7 females from 101 and
• 95C3 is the number of ways of choosing 3 male voters* from 95
• 196C10 is the total voters (196) of which we are choosing 10
• *That’s because if 7/10 voters are female, then 3/10 voters must be male.
• 101C7*95C3/(196C10)= (17199613200*138415)/18257282924056176 = 0.130
Source: Stephanie Glen. "Hypergeometric Distribution: Examples and Formula" From StatisticsHowTo.com: Elementary Statistics for the rest of us!
https://www.statisticshowto.com/hypergeometric-distribution-examples/
• Exercise
Pada sebuah eksperimen probabilitas satu kali melempar dua buah dadu
secara bersamaan, distribusi probabilitas dari jumlah mata dadu yang
muncul ditentukan sebagai berikut:
Ruang sampel eksperimen adalah pasangan mata dadu yang mungkin:
(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
Hitung variable acak diskritnya dan distribusi probabilitas acak diskritnya
Sumber: Kuchink, 2012:3-4

Jika X adalah varibel acak diskrit yang menyatakan jumlah mata
dadu yang mungkin muncul, maka X = {2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12}
Distribusi probabilitas untuk masing-masing nilai variabel X membentuk fungsi probabilitas sebagai berikut:
•P(X=2) = p(2) = 1/36 P(X=8) = p(8) = 5/36
•P(X=3) = p(3) = 2/36 P(X=9) = p(9) = 4/36
•P(X=4) = p(4) = 3/36 P(X=10) = p(10) = 3/36
•P(X=5) = p(5) = 4/36 P(X=11) = p(11) = 2/36
•P(X=6) = p(6) = 5/36 P(X=12) = p(12) = 1/36
•P(X=7) = p(7) = 6/36
Dari fungsi probabilitas jumlah mata dadu yang muncul pada eksperimen melempar dua mata dadu dalam Contoh 2 dapat dibentuk fungsi distribusi kumulatif (cdf) sebagai berikut:
F (2) =  p( x ) = p(2) = 1/ 36
x 2
F (3) =  p( x ) = p(2) + p(3) = 1/ 36 + 2 / 36 = 3 / 36
x 3
F (4) =  p( x ) = p(2) + p(3) + p(4) = 1/ 36 + 2 / 36 + 3 / 36 = 6 / 36
x 4
F (5) =  p( x ) = p(2) + p(3) + ... + p(5) = 1/ 36 + 2 / 36 + ... + 4 / 36 = 10 / 36
x 5
F (6) =  p( x ) = p(2) + p(3) + ... + p(6) = 1/ 36 + 2 / 36 + ... + 5 / 36 = 15 / 36
x 6
F (7) =  p( x ) = p(2) + p(3) + ... + p(7) = 1/ 36 + 2 / 36 + ... + 6 / 36 = 21/ 36
x 7
F (8) =  p( x ) = p(2) + p(3) + ... + p(8) = 1/ 36 + 2 / 36 + ... + 5 / 36 = 26 / 36
x 8
F (9) =  p( x ) = p(2) + p(3) + ... + p(9) = 1/ 36 + 2 / 36 + ... + 4 / 36 = 30 / 36
x 9
F (10) =  p( x ) = p(2) + p(3) + ... + p(10) = 1/ 36 + 2 / 36 + ... + 3 / 36 = 33 / 36
x 10
F (11) =  p( x ) = p(2) + p(3) + ... + p(11) = 1/ 36 + 2 / 36 + ... + 2 / 36 = 35 / 36
x 11
F (12) =  p( x ) = p(2) + p(3) + ... + p(12) = 1/ 36 + 2 / 36 + ... + 1/ 36 = 36 / 36
x 12 Sumber: Kuchink, 2012:3-4
Sumber : https://www.slideshare.net/QorryAnnisya/distribusi-
variabel-acak-kontinyu?from_action=save 5-10
variabel-acak-kontinyu?from_action=save: 5-10
Contoh Distribusi Probabilitas
Binomial
Percobaan: Melemparkan 1 koin sebanyak 5 kali. Catat
banyaknya kemunculan ekor. Berapakah probabilitas
muncul 3 ekor dari 5 pelemparan tersebut?
n!
p(x) = p x (1− p) n−x
x!(n − x)!
© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.
5!
p(3) = .53 (1− .5)5−3
3!(5 − 3)!
= .3125
PDF and CDF Examples (random continue
variable
Example 3.6:
Suppose that the error in the reaction temperature, in oC, for a concrete sample in controlled
laboratory experiment is a continuous random variable X having the following probability
density function: 1 2
 x ; −1 x  2
f ( x) =  3
0 ; elsewhere

1.  f(x) dx = 1
Verify that (a) f(x)  0 and (b)
2. Find P(0<X1) -
Solution:
X = the error in the reaction
temperature in oC.
X is continuous r. v.
1 2
 x ; −1 x  2
f ( x) =  3
0 ; elsewhere
1. (a) f(x)  0 because f(x) is a quadratic function.
 −1 2 
1 2
(b) - f(x) dx = - 0 dx + -1 3 x dx + 2 0 dx
2
1 2 1 3 x = 2 
=  x dx =  x 
-1
3 9 x = −1
1
= (8 − (−1)) = 1
9 1 11
2. P(0<X1) =
 f(x) dx =  x 2
dx
0 03
1 3 x = 1 
= x 
 9 x = 0 
1
= (1 − (0))
9
1
=
9
Definition 3.7:
The cumulative distribution function (CDF), F(x), of a continuous random variable X
with probability density function f(x) is given by:
F(x) = P(Xx)= for −<x<
x
 f(t) dt;
-
Result:
P(a < X  b) = P(X  b) − P(X  a) = F(b) − F(a)
Example:
in Example 3.6,
1.Find the CDF
2.Using the CDF, find P(0<X1).
Solution:
1 2
 x ; −1 x  2
f ( x) =  3
0 ; elsewhere
For x< −1:
x x
 f(t) dt =  0 dt = 0
F(x) =
- -
For −1x<2:
x −1 x1
F(x) =
 f(t) dt =  0 dt +  t 2
dt
- - -13
x
1 2
=  t dt
-1
3
1 3 t = x  1 3 1 3
= t  = ( x − (−1)) = ( x + 1)
9 t = −1 9 9
For x2:
x −1 2 x
1 2 2
- = - + -1 3 + 2 1 2

F(x) =
f(t) dt 0 dt t dt 0 dt =
-1 3 t dt = 1
Therefore, the CDF is:
 0 ; x  −1
 1
F ( x) = P( X  x) =  ( x 3 + 1) ; − 1  x  2
9
 1 ; x  2
2. Using the CDF,

P(0<X1) = F(1) − F(0) = 2 1 1
− =
9 9 9
References
• Devonte Iredale https://slideplayer.com/slide/3168293/
• Topic 10 Fall 2010 Olin Business School
• Quantitative Analysis for Management, Tenth Edition, by Render,
Stair, and Hanna Power Point slides created by Jeff Heyl
• https://www.academia.edu/15830606/Random_variables_and_proba
bility_distributions_Sampling_Techniques
• Source: lecture 4 https://web.stanford.edu/~kcobb/hrp259/lecture4.ppt:30
Referensi
• https://www.slideshare.net/audityasutarto/variabel-random-distribusi-peluang?from_action=save
• https://www.rumusstatistik.com/2018/11/peubah-acak-random-variable.html
• http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:c3gL2brYD0sJ:ocw.upj.ac.id/files/Handout-INF107-
Modul-ajar.docx+&cd=1&hl=id&ct=clnk&gl=id
• https://syafii.staff.uns.ac.id/files/2010/03/bab-iii-variabel-acak-dan-
distribusi-probabilitas.pdf
❑ https://www.slideshare.net/fitriayuwijayanti/bab-1-variabel-acak-dan-nilai-
harapan?qid=7671b377-a89e-4401-a5e2-e864d265c135&v=&b=&from_search=1
❑ Sylvia Kuchink, 2012.
❑ https://www.scribd.com/doc/92784093/Variabel-Acak-Dan-Distribusi-Probabilitas-Print
https://www.slideshare.net/audityasutarto/variabel-random-distribusi-peluang?from_action=save
❑ https://www.rumusstatistik.com/2018/11/peubah-acak-random-variable.html
❑ http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:c3gL2brYD0sJ:ocw.upj.ac.id/files/Handout-
INF107-Modul-ajar.docx+&cd=1&hl=id&ct=clnk&gl=id
❑ Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers by Douglas Montgomery
❑ lecture 4 https://web.stanford.edu/~kcobb/hrp259/lecture4.ppt:4
❑ Irwan Yuwono, 2016 https://slideplayer.info/slide/10692117/: 8
❑ https://jagostat.com/teori-peluang/nilai-harapan-peubah-acak

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Random Variable and

Fin500J Topic 10 Fall 2010 Olin Business School 2

• Two types of random variables

Since these values change and are subject to some

• A discrete random variable can take a countable number of values.

* The answer ranges from 1,652 to 1,789. See Great Buildings

Fin500J Topic 10 Fall 2010 Olin Business School

Variabel random dan ruang sampelnya disebut ruang sampel

Menjawab 50 pertanyaan Banyaknya jawaban yang 0, 1, 2, ..., 50

Banyaknya truk yang Banyaknya truk 0, 1, 2, ... , ∞

Nilai yang Mungkin

Mengukur usia hidup Suatu Jam 403.9, 675, …

Mengukur Waktu Inter-arrival Time 0, 1.3, 2.78, …

This is typically a “count” of

• Mengukur jarak yang ditempuh oleh Truk yang berbeda

• A) variable acak diskrit

Source:Chandio H, 2016 https://www.slideshare.net/EngrHabiburRehmanCha/applications-of-random-variable:7

Source:translated from Chandio H, 2016 https://www.slideshare.net/EngrHabiburRehmanCha/applications-of-random-variable:9

 Statisticians use sampling plans to either accept or

Source:Chandio H, 2016 https://www.slideshare.net/EngrHabiburRehmanCha/applications-of-random-variable:10

 Task completion time

Source:Chandio H, 2016 https://www.slideshare.net/EngrHabiburRehmanCha/applications-of-random-variable:27

 Besarnya beban yang diterapkan pada sistem

Source:Chandio H, 2016 https://www.slideshare.net/EngrHabiburRehmanCha/applications-of-random-variable:29

• Probability distribution:-consists of a value

25 Is this belongs to a probability distribution?

Is the following a probability distribution?

2) Each probability is the long-run relative frequency of

3) Usually displayed in a table, but can be displayed with a

1) For every possible x value,

2) For all values of x,

nearest 0.1 pound. This would be the probability

• The function that describes this curve is

• The probability of observing a value in a

2. The total area under the density curve equals

P(x < ½) = 1 – ½(0.5)(1) = .75

P(x < ½) = P(x < ½)

P(a < x < b) = (cumulative area

P(a < x < b) = P(x < b) – P(x < a)

▪ This function integrates to 1:

Source: lecture 4 https://web.stanford.edu/~kcobb/hrp259/lecture4.ppt:18

The probability that x is any exact particular value (such as 1.9976) is 0;

For example, the probability of x falling within 1 to 2:

a. f(x)=.25 for x=9,10,11,12

b. f(x)= (3-x)/2 for x=1,2,3,4

c. f(x)= (x2+x+1)/25 for x=0,1,2,3

Source: lecture 4 https://web.stanford.edu/~kcobb/hrp259/lecture4.ppt:10

a. f(x)=.25 for x=9,10,11,12

b. f(x)= (3-x)/2 for x=1,2,3,4

Source: lecture 4 https://web.stanford.edu/~kcobb/hrp259/lecture4.ppt:12

Find the probability that on a given day:

c. At most 11 ships arrive p(x≤11)= (.4 +.2) = .6

• What percentage of the students would you expect picked

Source: lecture 4 https://web.stanford.edu/~kcobb/hrp259/lecture4.ppt:15

• The standard deviation of a random variable x,

Source:translation from lecture 4 https://web.stanford.edu/~kcobb/hrp259/lecture4.ppt:29

• Standard deviation is the square root of the

• Recall the following probability distribution of

 x p( x) = 10(.4) + 11(.2) + 12(.2) + 13(.1) + 14(.1) = 11.3

Source: lecture 4 https://web.stanford.edu/~kcobb/hrp259/lecture4.ppt:30

• Standard Deviation of a discrete random

Source: Irwan Yuwono, 2016 https://slideplayer.info/slide/10692117/: 9

• Example: Toss 2 coins, X = # heads,