BSCE MATH4 SLM Module-2 1st-Review

Republic of the Philippines
Laguna State Polytechnic University

Province of Laguna
ISO 9001:2015 Certified
Level I Institutionally Accredited
LSPU Self-Paced Learning Module (SLM)

Course MATH 4 – Engineering Data Analysis
Sem/AY First Semester/2021-2022
Module No. 2
Lesson Title Basic Probability
Week
2
Duration
Date Week #4 - #5
This lesson will discuss the basic ideas and approaches to probability and its
Description calculation. Discuss how to calculate the probabilities of combined event. Examined
of the the counting rules that are useful in probabilities and elaborate rules of probability.
Lesson
Learning Outcomes
Intended Students should be able to meet the following intended learning outcomes:
Learning • Understand and describe sample spaces and events for random experiments
Outcomes with graphs, tables, lists, or tree diagrams
• Interpret probabilities and use probabilities of outcomes to calculate
probabilities of events in discrete sample spaces
• Calculate the probabilities of joint events such as unions and intersections from
the probabilities of individual events
• Interpret and calculate conditional probabilities of events
Targets/ At the end of the lesson, students should be able to:
Objectives • recognize the sample spaces and events
• identify the counting rules that is useful in probability and understand the rules
of probability
• interpret the different probabilities
Student Learning Strategies
Online Activities 1. Online Discussion via Google Meet/fb messenger

(Synchronous/ You will be directed to attend in a one hour class discussion on the
Probability. To have access to the online discussion, refer to this link:
Asynchronous) ____________________.
The online discussion will happen on October 25-Novemer 5, 2021,

from 7:30-9:00AM.
LSPU SELF-PACED LEARNING MODULE: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

Province of Laguna
(For further instructions, refer to your Google Classroom and see the
schedule of activities for this module)
2. Learning Guide Questions:

1. What are the principles of sample spaces and relationship among
events?
2. What are the concept in counting rules that is useful in probability?
3. What are the different rules of probability?
4. What are the different applications of probability in engineering
profession?
Note: The insight that you will post on online discussion forum using Learning Management
System (LMS) will receive additional scores in class participation.
Lecture Guide
Why Learn Probability?

1. Nothing in life is certain. In everything we do, we gauge the chances of
successful outcomes, from business to medicine to the weather.
2. A probability provides a quantitative description of the chances or
likelihoods associated with various outcomes.
3. It provides a bridge between descriptive and inferential statistics
Offline Activities
(e-Learning/Self- Probabilistic VS. Statistical Reasoning
Paced)
Example scenario:
-Suppose I know exactly the proportions of car makes in California. Then I can
find the probability that the first car I see in the street is a Ford. This is
probabilistic reasoning as I know the population and predict the sample.
-Now suppose that I do not know the proportions of car makes in California,
but would like to estimate them. I observe a random sample of cars in the
street and then I have an estimate of the proportions of the population. This is
statistical reasoning.
The sample along with inferential statistics allows us to draw conclusions
about the population, with inferential statistics making clear use of elements of
probability. An element in probability allows us to draw conclusions about
characteristics of hypothetical data taken from the population, based on known
features of the population.

Province of Laguna
Probability – the likelihood of an event occurring.

Probability experiment – a chance process that leads to well-defined results
called outcomes. (i.e., some mechanism that produces a set of outcomes in a
random way).
Outcome – the result of a single trial of a probability.
Basic Concepts
Sample Space and Events
Random Experiments
An experiment that can result in different outcomes, even though it is repeated
in the same manner every time, is called a random experiment
The methods presented for modelling and analysing experimental results

are quite valuable.
Models and analyses that include variation are not different from models
used in other areas of engineering and science. Figure 2-1 displays the
important components. A mathematical model (or abstraction) of the physical
system is developed. It need not be a perfect abstraction. For example,
Newton’s laws are not perfect descriptions of our physical universe. Still, they
are useful models that can be studied and analyzed to approximately quantify
the performance of a wide range of engineered products. Given a mathematical
abstraction that is validated with measurements from our system, we can use
the model to understand, describe, and quantify important aspects of the
physical system and predict the response of the system to inputs. Throughout
this text, we discuss models that allow for variations in the outputs of a system,
even though the variables that we control are not purposely changed during
our study. Figure 2-2 graphically displays a model that incorporates
uncontrollable inputs (noise) that combine with the controllable inputs to
produce the output of our system. Because of the uncontrollable inputs, the same
settings for the controllable inputs do not result in identical outputs every time
the system is measured. (Montgomery, D.C. 2003)
Experiment
In probability theory, the activity that produces an event; it is any action or

Province of Laguna
process that generates data. It is the process by which an observation (or

measurement) is obtained.
Example of Experiment
For the example of measuring current in a copper wire, our model for the
system might simply be Ohm’s law. Because of uncontrollable inputs, variations
in measurements of current are expected. Ohm’s law might be a suitable
approximation. However, if the variations are large relative to the intended use
of the device under study, we might need to extend our model to include the
variation. See Fig. 2-3.
As another example from Fig. 2-4, in the design of a communication system,
such as a computer or voice communication network, the information capacity
available to service individuals using the network is an important design
consideration. For voice communication, sufficient external lines need to be
purchased from the phone company to meet the requirements of a business.
Assuming each line can carry only a single conversation, how many lines
should be purchased? If too few lines are purchased, calls can be delayed or
lost. The purchase of too many lines increases costs. Increasingly, design and
product development is required to meet customer requirements at a
competitive cost. (Montgomery, D.C. 2003)
Sample Space
-The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called sample
space of the experiment. The sample space is denoted as S.
- A sample space is discrete it consists of a finite or countable infinite set of
outcomes. A sample space is continuous if it contains an interval (either finite
or infinite) of real numbers.
A sample space is often defined based on the objectives of the analysis
Example 1 :
Consider an experiment in which you select a moulded plastic part, such as a
connector, and measure its thickness. The possible values for thickness depend
on the resolution of the measuring instrument, and they also depend on upper
and lower bounds for thickness. However, it might be convenient to define the

Province of Laguna
sample space as simply the positive real line

S=R+={x|x˃0}
because a negative value for thickness cannot occur.
If it is known that all connectors will be between 10 and 11 millimetres
thick, the sample space could be
S = { x | 10 ˂ x˂ 11 }
If the objective of the analysis is to consider only whether a particular part is

low, medium, or high for thickness, the sample space might be taken to be the
set of three outcomes:
S = { low, medium, high }
If the objective of the analysis is to consider only whether or not a particular

part conforms to the manufacturing specifications, the sample space might be
simplified to the set of two outcomes
S = { yes, no }
that indicate whether or not the part conforms.
It is useful to distinguish between two types of sample spaces.
Example 2:
An automobile manufacturer provides vehicles equipped with selected options.

Each vehicle is ordered
With or without an automatic transmission

With or without air-conditioning
With one of three choices of a stereo system
With one of four exterior colors
If the sample space consists of the set of all possible vehicle types, what is
the number of outcomes in the sample space? The sample space contains 48
outcomes. The tree diagram for the different types of vehicles is displayed in
Fig. 2-6.

Province of Laguna
Example 3:
What is the sample space for one flip of a coin?
S= (Head, Tail)
Example 4:
Suppose I roll two six-sided dice. What is the sample space for the possible
outcomes
S= (1,2,3,4,5,6)
Example:
Find the sample space for drawing one card from an ordinary deck of cards.
Tree Diagram
A device consisting of line segments emanating from a starting point and

also from the outcome points. It is used to determine all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment.

Province of Laguna
Example: Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the sex of three
children in a family.
Our outcome pertains to the sex of one child and the second of the next child
and the sex of the third child. Each of the children will correspond to a
branching in the tree.
-What is the sex of the first child? boy/girl

-Given the sex of the first child, what is the sex of the second child?
-Given the sex of the first two children, what is the sex of the third child?
Events
An event is a subset of the sample space of a random experiment
We can also be interested in describing new events from combinations of

existing events. Because events are subsets, we can use basic set operations
such as unions, intersections, and complements to form other events of
interest. Some of the basic set operations are summarized below in terms of
events:
• The union of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes that
are contained in either of the two events. We denote the union as . E1 U
E2
• The intersection of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes
that are contained in both of the two events. We denote the intersection
as . E1 ∩ E2
• The complement of an event in a sample space is the set of outcomes in

the sample space that are not in the event. We denote the component of
the event E as E’

Province of Laguna
Example
Measurements of the time needed to complete a chemical reaction might be

modeled with the sample space S = R+, the set of positive real numbers. Let
E1 = { x | 1 ≤ x ˂ 10 } and E1 = { x | 3 ≤ x ˂ 118 }
Then,
E1 ⋃ E2 = { x | 1 ≤ x ˂ 118 } and E1 ∩ E2 = { x | 3 ≤ x ˂ 10 }
Also,
E1‘ = { x | x ≥ 10 } and E1‘ ∩ E2 = { x | 10 ≤ x ˂ 118 }
Diagrams are often used to portray relationships between sets, and these
diagrams are also used to describe relationships between events. We can use
Venn diagrams to represent a sample space and events in a sample space. For
example, in Fig. 2-8(a) the sample space of the random experiment is
represented as the points in the rectangle S. The events A and B are the subsets
of points in the indicated regions. Figure 2-8(b) illustrates two events with no
common outcomes; Figs. 2-8(c) to 2-8(e) illustrate additional joint events. Two
events with no outcomes in common have an important relationship.
Two events , denoted as E1 and E2 such that
E1 ∩ E2 = ∅
Are said to be mutually exclusive
The two events in Fig. 2-8(b) are mutually exclusive, whereas the two
events in Fig. 2-8(a) are not.

Province of Laguna
Additional results involving events are summarized below. The definition

of the complement of an event implies that
(E’)’ = E
The distributive law for set operations implies that
(A U B) ∩ C = (A ∩ C) U (B ∩ C), and (A ∩ B) U C = (A U C) ∩ (B U C)
De Morgan’s Law imply that
(A U B)’ = A’ ∩ B’ and (A ∩ B) = A’ U B’
Also, remember that
A∩B=B∩A and AUB=BUA
Simple Event - an event with one outcome.
Example: Roll a die and get a 6
Compound event- an event with more than one outcome
Example: Roll a die and get an even number
Counting Rules , useful in Probability
Fundamental Principle of Counting (Multiplication Rule)
Consider an experiment taking in k stages. Let n1 denote the number of ways in

which stage i can occur for i = 1,2,3….k. Altogether the experiment can occur for
∏ i k = 1ni= n1•n2•n3….nk ways
Example:
1. In how many ways can three coins fall?
n1 = 2 ; n2 =2; n3 = 2
total number of ways = n1 x n2 x n3 =8 ways

Province of Laguna
Tree Diagram
2. In how many ways can two dice fall?
n1 = 6 ; n2 = 6
Total number of ways= 36 ways
Tree Diagram
3. An office secretary tries to devise a coding scheme for certain records

using the digits 1 to 4. She wants to find the total number of codes of different
digits if only three of the four digits are used .
Solution: ?
n1 x n2 x n3 = 4 x 3 x 2 = 24 ways

Province of Laguna
Tree Diagram 3 123

4 124
2 2 132
3 4 134
1 4 2 142
3 143
1 …………………………….
2 3
4
2
3 1
4
4 2
3
1 ………….. 413
Permutations
Permutation is an arrangement of a group of things in a definite order that is

there is a first element, a second, a third etc. In other words, the order or
arrangement of the elements is important.
nPr = represents the number of permutation (order of arrangements) of n

different objects taken r at a time
nPr = n!
(n-r)!
Permutation Rule
1. The number of permutation of n distinct objects taken n at a time is

P=n! = n(n-1) (n-2)…….
Example:
1. In how many ways the radiologist assign 5 patients to undergo a
screening test for pulmonary tuberculosis x-ray?
Solution: The number of ways of selecting 5 patients one at a time is
5P5 = P(n,n = n! = n(n-1)(n-2)… (3)(2)(1) =120 ways
2. The number of permutation of n distinct objects taken r at a time

nPr = n!
(n-r)!

Province of Laguna
Example:
1. How many permutations can be made from the letters in the word
“SUNDAY” if (a) 4 letters are used a time; (b) all letters are used; (c) all
letters are used but the first is a vowel?
Solution.
a. We want to find the number of permutations of 6 letters taken 4 at a time.
Using the formula, we have
6P4 = 6! / (6-4)! = 6! / 2! = 6•5•4•3•2! / 2! = 360 permutations.
b. Since all letters are used, n=6 and r= 6, then 6P6 = 6! = 720 permutations.
c. The first letter in each permutation is either “U” or “A”. Therefore, we
have two choices for the first letter. But after selecting the first letter, we can
select the remaining 5 without restriction, and consequently in 5! Ways. The
total number of ways of selecting the first letter as vowel and then the other 5
letters without restriction is
2•5! = 2•5•4•3•2•1 = 240 ways
3. The number of permutation of n objects of which n1 are identical n2 are

identical (permutation of objects not all different)
P= n!
n1!n2!n3!....nk
Illustration:
Given 4 bulbs, three are red (R), and one blue (B). Then the number of ways of
arranging the bulbs in a string of wire is 4! / (3!)(1!) = 4 ways
R R R B Note of the arrow in

the manner of
The 4 arrangements R R B R arrangement in the
listing of the
are R B R R bulbs.
B R R R
4. The number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle

P = (n-1)!
Permutations that occur by arranging objects in a circle are called circular

permutations. Two circular permutations are not considered different unless
corresponding objects in the two arrangements are preceded or followed by a
different object as we proceed in a clockwise direction.
Example

Province of Laguna
In how many ways can we arrange 4 thermometers in a box container?

Solution. Fixing 1 thermometer, then the required number of possible
arrangements is
(4-1)! = 3•2•1 = 6 ways
To illustrate the 6 circular permutations or arrangements of 4
thermometers in a circular container, we denote the thermometers as T1, T2,
T3, and T4. Fixing T4 then the 6 arrangements are display in fig. 5.2.3.
T1 T4 T2 T4 T3 T4 T1 T4 T2 T4 T3 T4
T2 T3 T1 T3 T1 T2 T3 T2 T3 T1 T2 T1
5. The no. of permutation of partitioning a set of n objects into r subsets

P= n!
n1!n2!n3!....nr
Example:
It is desired to assign 10 people to 2 triple and 2 double rooms
Solution:
P= 10!/3! 3! 2! 2! = 25,200 arrangements
Combinations
A combination also concerns arrangements, but without regard to her

order. This means that the order or arrangement in which the elements are
taken is not important.
Combinatorial Formula
The number of ways of selecting r objects taken from n at a time is C (n,r)

where
C (n, r) = n! / r! (n - r)!
Example:
1. How many different committees consisting of 3 men and 2 ladies each
can be formed from a group of 6 men and 5 ladies?
6C3 x 5C2 = 6!/(6-3)! 3! ● 5!/(5-2)! 2! = 200 committees
2. In how many ways can a baseball team of 9 players be formed from a

group of 18 players. If only 3 can be catchers, only 6 can be pitchers, and
the rest can only take one of the other positions?
3C1 x 6C1 x 16C7 = 205, 920 ways

Province of Laguna
There are three basic interpretation or probability:
1. Classical probability – (Theoretical) uses sample spaces to determine

the numerical probability that an event will happen.
-We do not actually perform the experiment to determine the

theoretical probability
-Assumes that all outcomes are equally likely to occur
The probability of an event E is
P(E) = Number of outcomes in E = n(E)

Number of outcomes in the sample space n(S)
Where S denotes the sample space and n(●) means “the number of outcomes
in….”
Rounding Rules for Probabilities – probabilities should be expressed as

reduced fractions or rounded to 2-3 decimal places. If the probability is
extremely small then round to the first nonzero digit.
Example:
Consider a standard deck of 52 cards. Find the probability of selecting a queen
P (queen) = 4/52 = 1/3 = 0.077
Find the probability of selecting a spade, P (spade) = _______________
Find the probability of selecting a red ace, P (red ace) = ____________
Probability Rules
1. The probability of an event E must be a number between 0 and 1.

i.e., 0≤ P(E) ≤ 1
2. If an event E cannot occur, then its probability is 0.
3. If an event E must occur, then its probability is 1.
4. The sum of all probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1.
Complementary Events
Complementary of an event E – the set of outcomes in the sample space that

are not included in the outcomes of an event E. The complement of E is denoted
by E (“E bar”).

Province of Laguna
Note: The outcome of an event and the outcomes of the complement make up
the entire sample space.
Example: What is the complement of the following
Rolling a six die and getting a 4?
Complement = Rolling a die and getting 1,2,3,5 or 6
Rolling a die and getting a multiple of 3?
Selecting a day of the week and getting a weekday?
Selecting a month and getting a month that begins with A?
Rule of Complementary Events
P(E) = 1- P(E) or P(E) = 1 - P(E) or P(E) + P(E) =1
Example : The probability of purchasing a defective light bulb is 12%. What is

the probability of not purchasing a defective light bulb?
P(not defective) = 1 - P( defective) = 1- 0.12 = 0.88
Example: What is the probability of not selecting a club in a standard deck of 52

cards?

Province of Laguna
Empirical Probability
The relative frequency of an event occurring from a probability experiment
over the long run.
-It relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of an outcome

rather than assuming equally likely outcomes.
Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event being in a given class

is:
P(E) = frequency for the class = f

Total frequencies in the distribution n
This probability is called the empirical probability
Example : Observe the proportion of male babies out of many, many births. of
Study
Example: Major Field

Class Frequency
Math 5
History 7
English 4
Science 9
25
What is the probability of being a math major? Science major? History? or

English major?
P(M) = 5/25 = 0.20 P(S)=______________ P(H or E)=_________________
The Law of Large Number tells us that the as the number of trials increases
the empirical probability gets closer to the theoretical (true) probability.
Because of the law of large numbers we will interpret the probability to the
“long-run” results (which we know approximates the theoretical probability).
The probability of a particular outcome is the proportion of times the outcome

would occur in a long-run of observations.
Subjective Probability
Uses a probability value based on an educated guess or estimate, employing
opinions and in exact information.
- Often, you cannot “repeat” the probability experiment.

Province of Laguna
Example: What is the probability you will pass this class?
Example; What is the probability that you will get a certain job when you
apply?
Basic Probability Rules
Principle:
If you can calculate a probability using logic and counting you do not need
a probability rule (although the correct rule can always applied)
Probability Rule one

-The first rule simply remind us of the basic property of probability
For every event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1

Example: Blood Type
1. A person in the U.S. is chosen at random. What is the probability of the

person having blood type A.
P(A) = 1- ( P(O) + P(B) + P(AB) )

= 1- (0.58) = 0.42
Probability Rule 2
-The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes is 1
Probability Rule 3
Probability Rule Three (Complement Rule)
P (not A) = 1- P (A)
- that is, the probability that an event does not occur is 1 minus the
probability that it does occur)
The complement event of A – is a separate event consists of all possible

outcomes that are not in A , (event A does not occur)

Province of Laguna
Venn Diagram- is a simple way to visualize events and the relationships

between them using rectangles and circles
Example: Blood types

Given:
Note:
- A person with type A can donate blood to a person with type A or AB
- A person with type B can donate blood to a person with type B or AB
- A person with type AB can donate blood to a person with type AB only
- A person with type O blood can donate to anyone
1. What is the probability that a randomly chosen cannot donate blood to

everyone? In other words, what is the probability that a randomly
chosen person does not have blood type O? We need to find P(not O).
Using the complement rule, P(not O) = 1- P(O) = 1-0.44 = 0.56
In other words, 56% of the U.S. population does not have blood type O.
Probabilities Involving Mutually Events
P (A or B) = P (Event A occurs or event B occurs or both occur

P (A and B) = P (both event A occurs and event B occurs)
In Probability, “OR” means either one or the other or both.

and so P(A or B) = P( event A occurs or event B occurs or BOTH

Province of Laguna
occurs
Probability Rule Four
The distinction between events that can happen together and those that
cannot is an important one.
Disjoint : Two events that cannot occur at the same time are called disjoint or
mutually exclusive. (We will use disjoint)
It should be clear from the picture that
- In the first case, where events are not disjoint, P( A and B) ≠ 0

- In the second case, where the events ARE disjoint, P(A and B) = 0
Example:
1.Consider the following events:

A- a randomly chosen person has blood type A, and
B- a randomly chosen person has blood type B
In rare cases, it is possible for a person to have more than one type of blood
flowing through his or her veins, but for our spouses, we are going to assume
that each person can have only one blood type. Therefore, it is impossible for
the events A and B to occur together.
-Events A and B are DISJOINT
2. Consider the following events:
A-a randomly chosen person has blood type A

B-a randomly chosen person is a woman.
In this case, it is possible for events A and B to occur together
- Events A and B ARE NOT DISJOINT

Province of Laguna
Probability Rule Four

(Addition Rule for Disjoint Events)
-If A and B are disjoint events, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

* When dealing with probabilities, the word “or” will always be associated with
the operation of addition, hence the name of this rule, “The Addition Rule”
Example: Blood Type
Given:
- A person with type A can donate blood to a person with type A or AB

- A person with type B can donate blood to a person with type B or AB
- A person with type AB can donate blood to a person with type AB only
-A person with type O blood can donate to anyone
1. What is the probability that a randomly chosen person is a potential

donor for a person with blood type A?
Solution: Analysis
From the information given, we know that being a potential donor for a
person with blood type A means having blood type A or O.
We therefore need to find P(A or O). Since the events A and O are disjoint, we
can use the addition rule for disjoint events to get:
P(A or O) = P(A) + P(O) = 0.42 + 0.44 = 0.86.
It is easy to see why adding the probability actually makes sense.

If 42% of the population has blood type A and 44% of the population has blood
type O,
then 42% + 44% = 86% of the population has either blood type A or O, and
thus are potential donors to a person with blood type A.
Comment:
-The Addition Rule for Disjoint Events can naturally be extended to more than
two disjoint events. Let’s take three, for example. If A, B and C are three disjoint
events

Province of Laguna
Finding Rule Five

The General Addition Rule
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Note : It is the best to use logic to find P(A and B), not another formula
Principle:
If you can calculate a probability using logic and counting you do not NEED a
probability rule (although the correct rule can always be applied)
Example: Periodontal Status and Gender
Consider randomly Example selecting one individual from those represented in

the following table regarding the periodontal status of individuals and their

Province of Laguna
gender. Periodontal status refers to gum disease where individuals are

classified as either healthy, have gingivitis, or have periodontal disease.
Let’s review what we have learned so far. We can calculate any probability in
this scenario if we can determine how many individuals satisfy the event or
combination of events.
P(Male) = 3009/8027 = 0.3749
P(Female) = 5018/8027 = 0.6251
P(Healthy) = 3750/8027 = 0.4672
P(Not Healthy) = P(Gingivitis or Perio) = (2419 + 1858)/8027 = 4277/8027 =
0.5328
We could also, calculate this using the complement rule: 1 – P(Healthy)
We also previously found that
P(Male AND Healthy) = 1143/8027 = 0.1424
Recall rule 5, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B). We now use this rule to
calculate P(Male OR Healthy)
-P(Male or Healthy) = P(Male) + P(Healthy) – P(Male and Healthy) = 0.3749 +

0.4672 – 0.1424 = 0.6997 or about 70%
We solved this question earlier by simply counting how many individuals are
either Male or Healthy or both. The picture below illustrates the values we
need to combine. We need to count
-All males
-All healthy individuals
-BUT, not count anyone twice!!
Example Important Delivery
It is vital that a certain document reach its destination within one day. To

Province of Laguna
maximize the chances of on-time delivery, two copies of the document are sent
using two services, service A and service B. It is known that the probabilities of
on-time delivery are:
0.90 for service A (P(A) = 0.90)
0.80 for service B (P(B) = 0.80)
0.75 for both services being on time (P(A and B) = 0.75)
(Note that A and B are not disjoint. They can happen together with probability
0.75.)
In the context of this problem, the obvious question of interest:
-What is the probability of on time delivery of the document using strategy (of
sending it via both services)?
The document will reach its destination on time as long as it is delivered on

time by service A or by service B or by both services. In other words, when
event A occurs or event B occurs or both occur. so….
P(on time delivery using this strategy)= P(A or B), which is represented the by
the shaded region in the diagram below:
We can now
-use the three Venn diagrams representing P(A), P(B), and P(A and B)
-to see that we can find P(A or B) by adding P(A) (represented by the left circle)
and P(B) (represented by the right circle)
-then subtracting P(A and B) (represented by the overlap), since we included it
twice, once as part of P(A) and once as part of P(B).
This is shown in the following image:

Province of Laguna
We therefore get:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
-P(A or B) = P( on time delivery using strategy) = 0.90 + 0.80 – 0.75 = 0.95
-P(A) = 0.90 means that in 90% of the cases when service A is used, it delivers
the document on time. To find this we look at the total probability for the row
containing A in finding P(A) , we do not know whether B happens or not.
-P(B) = 0.80 means that 80% of the cases when service B is used, it delivers the
document on time. To find this we look at the total probability for the column
containing B. In finding P(B), we do not know whether A happens or not
Rounding Rule of Thumb for Probability
-Follow the following general guidelines in this course. If in doubt carry more
decimal places. If we specify give exactly what is requested.
*In general you should carry probabilities to at least 4 decimal places for
intermediate steps.

Province of Laguna
*We often round our final answer to two or three decimal places.
*For extremely small probabilities, it is important to have 1 or two significant

digits (non-zero digits), such as 0.000001 or 0.000034, etc.
Many computer packages might display extremely small values using scientific
notation such as
58×10-5 or 1.58 E-5 to represent 0.0000158
Summary
Here is a summary of the rules we have presented so far.
1. Probability Rule #1 states:

For any event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
2. Probability Rule #2 states:

The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes is 1
3. The Complement Rule (#3) states that

P(not A) = 1 – P(A)
or when rearranged
P(A) = 1 – P(not A)
The latter representation of the Complement Rule is especially useful when we
need to find probabilities of events of the sort “at least one of …”
4. The General Addition Rule (#5) states that for any two events,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B),
where, by P(A or B) we mean P(A occurs or B occurs or both).
In the special case of disjoint events, events that cannot occur together, the
General Addition Rule can be reduced to the Addition Rule for Disjoint Events
(#4), which is
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B). *
*ONLY use when you are CONVINCED the events are disjoint (they do NOT
overlap)
5. The restricted version of the addition rule (for disjoint events) can be easily
extended to more than two events.
6. So far, we have only found P(A and B) using logic and counting in simple
examples.
Application of Probability in Engineering
• Probability theory is applied in everyday life in risk assessment and in trade

on financial markets. Governments apply probabilistic methods in

Province of Laguna
environmental regulation, where it is called pathway analysis.
• A good example is the effect of the perceived probability of any widespread

Middle East conflict on oil prices—which have ripple effects in the economy as
a whole. An assessment by a commodity trader that a war is more likely vs. less
likely sends prices up or down, and signals other traders of that opinion.
Accordingly, the probabilities are neither assessed independently nor
necessarily very rationally.
•The theory of behavioural finance emerged to describe the effect of such

groupthink on pricing, on policy, and on peace and conflict.
• The discovery of rigorous methods to assess and combine probability

assessments has changed society. It is important for most citizens to
understand how probability assessments are made, and how they contribute to
decisions.
•Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life is

reliability. Many consumer products, such as automobiles and consumer
electronics, use reliability theory in product design to reduce the probability of
failure. Failure probability may influence a manufacturer's decisions on a
product's warranty.
• The cache language model and other statistical language models that are
used in natural language processing are also examples of applications of
probability theory.
•It can also be used to in real-time analysis of piezo electric current transfer of
pressure through electric impulses due to strain and stress concentration at
localized spots. Like this the applications are many with the modern Civil
Engineering taking a huge leap into modernity with the aid of electronics, it
becomes more fun and highly technical to use probability and Statistics in Civil
Engineering.
• It can be used in amplification and fine tuning of resonant frequency wave

identification in Wind Structures, to monitor remotely the structural health of a
structure (such as a bridge, tall building, dams etc).
• In earth quake engineering, in a specific time interval the probability of

occurrence of an earth quake at a particular fault follows Poisson distribution.
Occurrence of cyclones in a particular time period follows Poisson distribution.
• Two major applications of probability theory in everyday life are in risk

assessment and in trade on commodity markets
•A telephone interchange, or a computer processor; find the genetic makeup of

Province of Laguna
individuals or populations; figure out the energy states of subatomic particles;

Estimate the spread of rumors; and predict the rate of return in risky
investments.
• When a meteorologist states that the chance of rain is 50%, the meteorologist
is saying that it is equally likely to rain or not to rain. If the chance of rain rises
to 80%, it is more likely to rain. If the chance drops to 20%, then it may rain,
but it probably will not rain.
Engaging Activities
Exercises:
Instruction: Answer the following , show your solution, please encircle your
final answer
1. 3 pairs of jeans, 5 shirts, 2 hats. Use a tree diagram to determine all
possible outfits composed of a pair of jeans, shirt, and a hat. Construct a
tree diagram.
2. In how many ways can 4 boys and 3 girls be seated in a row of 7 chairs.
If the girls are to sit by side?
3. In how many ways can 4 men be seated in a row of 6 chairs?
4. In how many ways can we select 2 spades and 3 diamond from a deck
of cards?
5. In how many ways can a committee of 4 be chosen from a group of 8
people?
6. Find the probability of getting a sum of at least 6 in a single throw of 2
dice
7. If a number of four distinct digits formed from the digits our distinct
digits 1,2, 3,4,5 and 6, find the probability that digits 5 and 6 are used.
8. The probability that a certain man will live 20 years is1/3, and that his
wife will live 20 years is 3/8. Find the probability that
a. the man will be alive and the wife will be dead 20 years hence;
b. one of them will be alive 20 years hence
9. We wish to determine the probability of boys and girls in families with 3
children.
10. A box contains 6 white and 2 black balls; another contains 3 white and
4 black balls. If one ball is drawn from each, find the probability that (a)
both are white; (b) both are black ; (c) one is white and one is black ; (d)
not one is black.

Province of Laguna
Performance Tasks
PT 1
Directions: After the discussion group yourselves at equally distributed two males and two female
and try to answer the given problems. Please try to research and consolidate some problem sets and
submit on the set date.
After understanding the previous lesson, what is the significance of the topic to your profession? Try
to reflect you future role in engineering fields. Explain and give justifications.
Understanding Directed Assess

Rubric for Designing Lesson Plan (PT 1 )

Province of Laguna
Learning Resources
Dayrit B. J., Turqueza, A.G., Ymas, S. E. (2007), College Statistics, Ymas Publishing House,
Valenzuela, Manila, Philippines, Philippine Copyright 2007
Dunn, Patrick F., Measurement and Data Analysis for Engineering and Science, Second Edition
2nd Edition
Frany, Marie Wendy J., Fundamentals of Probability and Statistics for Engineering, Published
2004
Milton, S. J. and Arnold, J. C., Introduction to Probability and Statistics: Principles and
Applications for Engineering and the Computing Sciences, Fourth Edition, International
Edition 2004, ISBN 0-07-246836-X
Montgomery, Douglas C., Runger George C. (2003) Applied Statistics and Probability for
Engineers Third Edition, Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Robinson, E.L.: Data Analysis for Scientists and Engineers, Princeton University Press
Walpole, Myers, Myers and Ye, Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, Ninth
Edition, Copyright 2014, Published by Pearson Education South Asia Pte. Ltd., Inc.
(Philippine Representative Office)
math.ucdenver.edu/~ssantori/MATH2830SP13/Math2830-Chapter-04.pdf
https://bolt.mph.ufl.edu/6050-6052/unit-3/module-6/#intro
Disclaimer:
This module is for educational purpose only. Under section Sec. 185 of RA 8293,
which states, “The fair use of a copyrighted work for criticism, comment, news
reporting, teaching including multiple copies for classroom use, scholarship, research,
and similar purposes is not an infringement of copyright. The unauthorized
reproduction, use, and dissemination of this module without joint consent of the
authors is strictly prohibited and shall be prosecuted to the full extent of the law,
including appropriate administrative sanctions, civil, and criminal”
Prepared by:
Josephine A. Villamin, PIE

COE Faculty, LSPU-Sta. Cruz Campus

BSCE MATH4 SLM Module-2 1st-Review

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

BSCE MATH4 SLM Module-2 1st-Review

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Republic of the Philippines

Laguna State Polytechnic University

LSPU Self-Paced Learning Module (SLM)

Student Learning Strategies

Online Activities 1. Online Discussion via Google Meet/fb messenger

The online discussion will happen on October 25-Novemer 5, 2021,

LSPU SELF-PACED LEARNING MODULE: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

2. Learning Guide Questions:

Why Learn Probability?

LSPU SELF-PACED LEARNING MODULE: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

Probability – the likelihood of an event occurring.

The methods presented for modelling and analysing experimental results

LSPU SELF-PACED LEARNING MODULE: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

process that generates data. It is the process by which an observation (or

LSPU SELF-PACED LEARNING MODULE: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

sample space as simply the positive real line

If the objective of the analysis is to consider only whether a particular part is

If the objective of the analysis is to consider only whether or not a particular

An automobile manufacturer provides vehicles equipped with selected options.

With or without an automatic transmission

LSPU SELF-PACED LEARNING MODULE: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

A device consisting of line segments emanating from a starting point and

LSPU SELF-PACED LEARNING MODULE: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

-What is the sex of the first child? boy/girl

An event is a subset of the sample space of a random experiment

We can also be interested in describing new events from combinations of

• The complement of an event in a sample space is the set of outcomes in

LSPU SELF-PACED LEARNING MODULE: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

Measurements of the time needed to complete a chemical reaction might be

E1‘ = { x | x ≥ 10 } and E1‘ ∩ E2 = { x | 10 ≤ x ˂ 118 }

Two events , denoted as E1 and E2 such that

Are said to be mutually exclusive

LSPU SELF-PACED LEARNING MODULE: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

Additional results involving events are summarized below. The definition

The distributive law for set operations implies that

De Morgan’s Law imply that

Also, remember that

A∩B=B∩A and AUB=BUA

Simple Event - an event with one outcome.

Example: Roll a die and get a 6

Compound event- an event with more than one outcome

Example: Roll a die and get an even number

Counting Rules , useful in Probability

Fundamental Principle of Counting (Multiplication Rule)

Consider an experiment taking in k stages. Let n1 denote the number of ways in

LSPU SELF-PACED LEARNING MODULE: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

2. In how many ways can two dice fall?

3. An office secretary tries to devise a coding scheme for certain records

LSPU SELF-PACED LEARNING MODULE: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

Tree Diagram 3 123

Permutation is an arrangement of a group of things in a definite order that is

nPr = represents the number of permutation (order of arrangements) of n

1. The number of permutation of n distinct objects taken n at a time is

Solution: The number of ways of selecting 5 patients one at a time is

5P5 = P(n,n = n! = n(n-1)(n-2)… (3)(2)(1) =120 ways

2. The number of permutation of n distinct objects taken r at a time

LSPU SELF-PACED LEARNING MODULE: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

6P4 = 6! / (6-4)! = 6! / 2! = 6•5•4•3•2! / 2! = 360 permutations.

2•5! = 2•5•4•3•2•1 = 240 ways

3. The number of permutation of n objects of which n1 are identical n2 are

R R R B Note of the arrow in

4. The number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle

Permutations that occur by arranging objects in a circle are called circular

LSPU SELF-PACED LEARNING MODULE: ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

P(M) = 5/25 = 0.20 P(S)= P(H or E)=___