Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 54(4) August 2009 727

Special issue: Groundwater and Climate in Africa

The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and

runoff in a humid, equatorial catchment: sensitivity of
projections to rainfall intensity

LUCINDA MILEHAM1, RICHARD G. TAYLOR1, MARTIN TODD1,

CALLIST TINDIMUGAYA2 & JULIAN THOMPSON1
1 Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK
l.mileham@ucl.ac.uk
2 Directorate of Water Resources Management, Ministry of Water and Environment, PO Box 19, Entebbe, Uganda

Abstract Projected warming in equatorial Africa, accompanied by greater evaporation and more frequent
heavy precipitation events, may have substantial but uncertain impacts on terrestrial hydrology. Quantitative
analyses of climate change impacts on catchment hydrology require high-resolution (<50 km) climate data
provided by regional climate models (RCMs). We apply validated precipitation and temperature data from
the RCM PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) to a semi-distributed soil moisture
balance model (SMBM) in order to quantify the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and
runoff in a medium-sized catchment (2098 km2) in the humid tropics of southwestern Uganda. The SMBM
explicitly accounts for changes in soil moisture, and partitions effective precipitation into groundwater
recharge and runoff. Under the A2 emissions scenario (2070–2100), climate projections from PRECIS
feature not only rises in catchment precipitation and modelled potential evapotranspiration by 14% and 53%,
respectively, but also increases in rainfall intensity. We show that the common application of the historical
rainfall distribution using delta factors to the SMBM grossly underestimates groundwater recharge (i.e. 55%
decrease relative to the baseline period of 1961–1990). By transforming the rainfall distribution to account
for changes in rainfall intensity, we project increases in recharge and runoff of 53% and 137%, respectively,
relative to the baseline period.
Key words climate change; groundwater; recharge; runoff; precipitation; Africa; Uganda

Impact du changement climatique sur la recharge en eaux souterraines et l’écoulement dans

un bassin versant équatorial humide: sensibilité des projections à l’intensité des pluies
Résumé Le réchauffement prévu en Afrique équatoriale, accompagné d’une augmentation de l’évaporation
et de la fréquence des événements de précipitation intenses, peut avoir des impacts substantiels mais
incertains sur l’hydrologie terrestre. Analyser quantitativement les impacts du changement climatique sur
l’hydrologie de bassin versant nécessite des données climatiques à haute résolution (<50 km) produites par
des modèles climatiques régionaux (MCR). Nous alimentons un modèle semi-distribué de bilan de
l’humidité du sol (MBHS) avec des données validées de précipitation et de température générées par le
MCR PRECIS, afin de quantifier les impacts du changement climatique sur la recharge en eaux souterraines
et sur l’écoulement au sein d’un bassin versant de taille moyenne (2098 km2) en zone tropicale humide du
sud-ouest de l’Ouganda. Le MBHS tient compte explicitement des changements d’humidité du sol et des
partages des précipitations efficaces entre recharge souterraine et écoulement. Selon le scénario d’émissions
A2 (2070–2100), les projections climatiques fournies par PRECIS montrent non seulement des
augmentations sur le bassin de la pluviosité et de l’évapotranspiration potentielle modélisée de 14% et de
53% respectivement, mais aussi des accentuations de l’intensité des pluies. Nous montrons que la pratique
courante d’alimenter le MBHS selon la distribution historique des pluies avec des facteurs de variation sous-
estime grossièrement la recharge souterraine (i.e. 55% de baisse relative par rapport à la période de référence
1961–1990). En transformant la distribution des pluies pour tenir compte des changements d’intensité, nous
projetons des augmentations de la recharge et de l’écoulement de 53% et de 137% respectivement, par
rapport à la période de référence.
Mots clefs changement climatique; eaux souterraines; recharge; écoulement; précipitation; Afrique; Ouganda

1 INTRODUCTION
Groundwater is the primary source of freshwater for drinking and irrigation around the world. In
sub-Saharan Africa, groundwater supplies 75% of all safe sources of drinking water (Foster et al.,
2006). The impacts of climate change on groundwater resources remain, however, very poorly
understood (IPCC, 2001, 2007). Analysis of the hydrological impacts of climate change is
especially important in sub-Saharan Africa where significant increases in water demand are

Open for discussion until 1 February 2010 Copyright © 2009 IAHS Press
728 Lucinda Mileham et al.

anticipated from high rates of population growth, currently 2.6% per annum (UN, 2007). At
present, estimates of freshwater resources (e.g. Shiklomanov, 2000) and predictions of freshwater
resources as a result of climate change (e.g. Kamga, 2001; Arnell, 1999a,b, 2003; Legesse et al.,
2003; Vörösmarty et al., 2005; Wit & Stankiewicz, 2006; Messager et al., 2006) are commonly
defined in terms of mean annual river discharge (runoff). Such estimates and predictions disregard
soil water (i.e. water transpired by plants) despite the fact that this sustains almost all agricultural
production in equatorial Africa. Freshwater resources defined in terms of mean annual river
discharge also fail to indicate the proportion of freshwater available ephemerally in drainage
channels as stormflow (i.e. runoff) and that which is more evenly distributed in time and space as
groundwater. A quantitative understanding of the impacts of climate variability and change on
both catchment stores (i.e. soil water, groundwater) and flows (i.e. river discharge) is of critical
importance to the development of climate change adaptation strategies.
In Africa, mean continental surface temperatures increased by approximately 0.7°C over the
20th century and a further warming of 0.2–0.5°C per decade is predicted for 2070–2100 (Hulme et
al., 2001). This rise in surface air temperatures is expected to have significant impacts on
terrestrial hydrology, an integral part of the climate system. Estimated hydrological changes in
equatorial Africa where warming of 1.4°C is predicted by 2050 (IPCC, 2001, 2007), include
increased precipitation (Joubert & Hewitson, 1997), increased evaporative demand (Hulme et al.,
1999), and greater runoff (Arnell, 1999a; Milly et al., 2005). There is, however, substantial
uncertainty and variability in the spatial and temporal distribution of these changes. Several studies
in sub-Saharan Africa (e.g. Kamga, 2001; Legesse et al., 2003; Messager et al., 2006) have
developed hydrological models to assess climate change impacts at the catchment scale. None of
these studies, however, explicitly estimates the impacts of climate change on groundwater.
Most river catchments are similar or smaller than the grid dimensions (300 km) of current
general circulation models (GCMs). Downscaling of GCM output is required and generally
follows one of two methodologies: (a) statistical downscaling using a pre-defined statistical
relationship (or weather generator), or (b) dynamical downscaling using a regional climate model
(RCM) nested in GCM output. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies)
RCM is a high resolution (<50 km) coupled ocean–atmosphere model designed by the UK Met
Office (Jones et al., 2004) specifically for use by non-climate scientists to produce detailed climate
scenarios for impact assessment studies. Furthermore, PRECIS is freely available to less
economically developed nations, making it the model of choice for many impact assessors in these
data-sparse regions. The PRECIS model has been validated extensively at both the regional
(2 660 000 km2) and the catchment (<2500 km2) scale in Uganda, and represents well the mean
climate (Mileham, 2008). The PRECIS RCM predicts an increase in mean annual catchment
precipitation of 14% and a mean annual temperature increase of 3–4°C by 2070–2100, relative to
the baseline climate (1960–1990), under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. An increased intensi-
fication of precipitation events, and a change in the onset and length of the rainy seasons, are also
predicted (Mileham, 2008). These changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration will be
used to force the catchment SMBM which is calibrated to historical gridded gauge precipitation
(1965–1970).
Soil-moisture balance models (SMBMs) have a demonstrated efficacy in simulating the
terrestrial water balance in the humid tropics of Africa (e.g. Taylor & Howard, 1999a,b; Rushton
et al., 2006, Mileham et al., 2008). SMBMs use widely available hydrometeorological obser-
vations (e.g. precipitation, evaporation, soil and vegetation types) and enable quantitative assess-
ment of the impacts of climate change and variability on basin stores (e.g. soil water, groundwater
recharge) and fluxes in data-sparse regions. In this study, we examine how projected (2070–2100)
changes in precipitation and evaporative regimes impact on simulated groundwater recharge and
runoff in a medium-sized catchment in an equatorial region of southwestern Uganda (River
Mitano) using dynamically downscaled climatological data derived from PRECIS to force a semi-
distributed SMBM.

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 The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff 729

2 MODEL AND DATA

2.1 Soil-moisture balance model (SMBM)
The SMBM estimates direct groundwater recharge (i.e. from the infiltration of rainfall) based on
changes in soil moisture (Penman, 1950; Grindley, 1967). Recharge occurs when effective preci-
pitation (precipitation minus runoff) at the soil surface exceeds evapotranspiration, and raises the
soil moisture to field capacity. Additional inputs are considered to pass through the soil into the
underlying strata. A soil-moisture deficit (SMD) exists when soil moisture is less than field
capacity. The SMD is defined as the depth of water required to bring the soil to field capacity. A
daily time-step is employed because the averaging of weekly and monthly precipitation can mask
daily recharge events (Howard & Lloyd, 1979). A daily rainfall threshold is applied, above which
it is assumed that interception and evaporation are overcome and runoff occurs. Runoff is calc-
ulated as a percentage of daily precipitation above this threshold (Lerner et al., 1990). According
to the SMBM, evapotranspiration occurs at the maximum rate (i.e. potential evapotranspiration,
PET) until the SMD reaches the root constant, which is a function of rooting depth and soil
porosity (Taylor & Howard, 1999a). Beyond this evapotranspiration continues at a reduced rate
(i.e. 10% of PET). A SMD of a further 51 mm can develop before the wilting point (maximum
SMD) is reached, beyond which no transpiration occurs (Grindley, 1967). The SMBM is semi-
distributed on a 0.25° grid cell resolution. Recharge and runoff were calculated for each grid cell
and land use, with model output weighted according to the relative proportion of each land use
within the grid cell. Land-use data were obtained from a series of 1:50 000-scale vegetation maps
produced by the Ugandan Ministry of Water, Lands and Environment (1996).

2.2 Study catchment

The River Mitano catchment occupies an area of 2098 km2 in southwestern Uganda and is
underlain by Precambrian gneisses, schists, phyllites and granites of the Buganda-Toro formation
(Fig. 1). The River Mitano flows in a northwesterly direction from upland areas, 2500 m above
mean sea level (a.m.s.l.) in the south of the catchment to the depression (graben) containing Lake
Edward (975 m a.m.s.l.) in the western arm of the East African Rift. The catchment lies within the
“inter-arch” basin (Veevers, 1977), an eroded surface of variable relief drained by well incised
river channels as a result of the rejuvenation of relief in the mid-Pleistocene (Taylor & Howard,
1998, 2000) (Fig. 1). The regolith comprises truncated weathered profiles composed primarily of
coarse, less weathered material, and there are frequent exposures of the Precambrian bedrock
(Taylor & Howard, 1999b). Groundwater from the weathered overburden and fractured bedrock
discharges into the River Mitano drainage network. High relief and incised drainage reflect a
runoff-dominated regime (Taylor & Howard, 1999a). Land use is primarily agrarian (79%).
Principal crops are: millet, cassava, sugarcane, simsim, maize, groundnuts, soybeans, bananas,
rice, maize, cotton, coffee and tobacco. Grassland dominates the remainder of the catchment
(17%) with small areas of wetland (3%), forest and plantations. Urbanisation and deforestation are
likely to be two of the key land-use changes affecting future Ugandan populations. Urbanisation is
likely to have the most significant impact on the River Mitano catchment due to its largely agra-
rian nature (<3% forest cover). It is assumed for this study that the land use remains constant under
the future scenario, as quantification of such changes is extremely difficult in data-sparse regions.
Mean annual catchment precipitation observed over the period 1965–1979 is 1190 mm and
ranges from 963 mm at Rwaishmaire (30.13°E, 0.83°S) in the east to 1699 mm at Sabianio
(29.63°E, 1.38°S) in the southwest (Fig. 1). Precipitation exhibits a bi-modal regime with
dominant modes (wet seasons) in March–May (MAM) and September–November (SON)
(Fig. 2(a)). Mean annual pan evaporation observed over the period 1967–1977 measured at
Mbarara (30.68°E, 0.60°S), approximately 50 km to the east of the catchment, is 1535 mm.
Monthly pan evaporation remains relatively constant throughout the year, varying by less than
15% (Fig. 2(a)) and exceeds precipitation in all months except the three months of peak wet season
precipitation. Diurnal mean temperature ranges between 13 and 26°C. This range is significantly

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730 Lucinda Mileham et al.

(a) (c)

(b)

Fig. 1 (a) Location map of the Mitano catchment; (b) detailed map of the catchment drainage system;
and (c) the location of the basin relative to the weathered land surfaces of Uganda (adapted from Taylor
& Howard, 1999a).

larger than the variation (2°C) in mean monthly maximum and minimum temperature. Discharge
records (1965–1979) for the River Mitano reflect the bi-modal precipitation but lag peak
precipitation by approximately 2 to 6 weeks. Mean daily river discharge during SON (35 m3 s-1)
exceeds MAM (20 m3 s-1) (Fig. 2(b)).

2.3 Parameter estimation

The SMBM requires a series of initial parameter values that relate to climatic conditions, land use
and soil type. These parameterisations were initially based on locally observed hydrological
parameters. Rooting depths multiplied by soil porosity (0.3) provide root constants of 127, 100,
136 and 175 mm for farmland, grassland, plantation and forest, respectively. Using historical
gridded station precipitation, a daily rainfall threshold of 8.25 mm and a runoff coefficient of
0.285 provide the optimal model calibration against graphically partitioned stormflow and
baseflow components of river discharge for the period 1965–1970. Gridded station precipitation
was derived from 20 stations within and surrounding the River Mitano catchment using the inverse
distance weighting method on a 0.25° grid cell resolution (Mileham et al., 2008). All simulations
were performed at a daily time step with model outputs aggregated to monthly values. Mean
annual recharge and runoff of 90 and 137 mm, respectively, closely mirror (<6% difference) mean
annual baseflow (95 mm) and stormflow (129 mm) derived from graphical partitioning. The
evenly distributed nature of gridded precipitation requires the calibration process to be largely
empirical as parameterisation of the rainfall threshold and runoff coefficient lay outside of locally

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 The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff 731

Fig. 2 (a) Mean monthly Mbarara pan evaporation (1967–1974) and mean monthly precipitation
derived from 20 rainfall stations within and around the River Mitano catchment for the period 1965–
1974; and (b) mean daily catchment precipitation derived from 20 rainfall stations within and around
the River Mitano catchment and mean daily discharge from the River Mitano gauge, for the period
1965–1974.

observed parameter values. Over the model validation period (1971–1974), simulated mean annual
recharge (82 mm) and runoff (134 mm) compare very favourably (<10% difference) with mean
annual baseflow (90 mm) and runoff (129 mm) derived from graphical partitioning. In addition,
simulated recharge events, following a time lag of 2 weeks, correspond well to observed recharge
events deduced from recent (2001–2005) water-level monitoring records (Mileham, 2008).

2.4 Climate data sources

PRECIS precipitation and temperature-derived potential evapotranspiration are used to derive the
changes in future climatic conditions across the catchment (Mileham, 2008). The A2 SRES
emissions scenario is used to force the future PRECIS data set (Mileham, 2008). Potential evapo-
transpiration is estimated using the Thornthwaite equation with a 2:1 weighting towards maximum
air temperature (Carmargo et al., 1999; Pereira & Pruitt, 2004). This method produces monthly
estimates of PET with <5% bias relative to Mbarara pan-derived PET for the period 1967–1974.

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732 Lucinda Mileham et al.

Weighting of the Thornthwaite equation towards maximum temperature is required in the tropics
as the equation has been criticised for seriously underestimating evaporative demand and seasonal
variations in temperature (Dupriez, 1959; Dagg & Blackie, 1965; Ward, 1971). Future changes in
both PET and precipitation were applied to the historical precipitation and potential evapotrans-
piration regime using mean monthly delta factors for each of the six PRECIS (0.25º × 0.25º) grid
cells that occupy the catchment (Mileham, 2008).
Delta factors derive proportional or absolute changes in baseline (1960–1990) and future
(2070–2100) data sets and are often applied to historical records, for impact assessments (e.g.
Arnell & Reynard, 1996; Arnell, 1999a,b, 2003; Pilling & Jones, 1999). Such methods have been
used to examine the potential impacts of future climate change on flooding (Gleick, 1986; Crooks
et al., 1996; Schreider et al., 2000; Reynard et al., 2001; Prudhomme et al., 2002). Mean monthly
delta factors are a favoured approach for impact studies due to their ease and speed of application.
However, this approach is limited, as the scaled and baseline scenarios differ only in terms of their
respective means, maxima and minima; all other properties of the data such as the range and
variability are assumed to remain constant. The procedure thus fails to account for changes in
either the number of rain days or the spatial distribution of precipitation. Considerable uncertainty
surrounds the physical response of hydrological systems to changes in the temporal distribution of
precipitation. Recent projections of substantial (70%) declines in groundwater recharge in
northeast Brazil and southwest Africa (Döll & Flörke, 2005), cited in the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report, did not consider changes in the distribution of daily precipitation (Kundzewicz et al.,
2007, 2008). However, previous research in the humid tropics (Taylor & Howard, 1996) shows a
strong, positive relationship between the number of heavy rainfall events (>10 mm d-1) and the
magnitude of groundwater recharge.
In this study, we assess the errors attributed to the estimation of groundwater recharge and
runoff using delta factors relative to a transformation method which can account for changes in
precipitation distribution. A transformation of the distribution of historical gridded station data to
represent the distribution of PRECIS-A2 future precipitation can be applied to all precipitation
events to address changes in rainfall intensity under future climatic scenarios. The gridded station
and both the PRECIS baseline and future data sets conform to the standard lognormal distribution
with sufficient accuracy to prevent significant underestimation of precipitation variability. If the
historical (baseline) PRECIS precipitation (Yt) was completely accurate (i.e. had an identical
distribution to gridded River Mitano station precipitation), the required transformation
(equation (1)) could be calculated simply from gridded station precipitation (Xt) and future
PRECIS-A2 precipitation, where Rt is the historical precipitation with a distribution equivalent of
future PRECIS-A2; μ3 is the mean of PRECIS-A2 future precipitation; and δ3 is the standard
deviation in PRECIS-A2 future precipitation; since log(Xt) has a normal distribution with mean
(μ1) and standard deviation (δ1):
⎡
Rt = μ 3 + ⎢δ 3 ⋅
(log(Xt ) − μ1)⎤ (1)
δ1 ⎥
⎣ ⎦
However, the distribution of baseline PRECIS precipitation (Yt) differs from that of the observed
gridded River Mitano precipitation. Conversion of Yt to the baseline PRECIS precipitation with a
probability distribution equivalent to the historical distribution of observed gridded River Mitano
precipitation (Zt) was achieved using equation (2) where μ1 is the mean of historical gridded
station precipitation; δ1 is the standard deviation of historical gridded station precipitation; Yt is
the historical PRECIS precipitation; μ2 is the mean of historical PRECIS precipitation; and δ2 is
the standard deviation of historical PRECIS precipitation:
⎡
Zt = μ1 + ⎢δ 1 ⋅
(log(Yt ) − μ 2)⎤ (2)
δ2 ⎥
⎣ ⎦
On the assumption that this relationship between historical PRECIS and gridded River Mitano
station precipitation holds true for future climates, it is possible to transform Rt to represent the

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 The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff 733

-1
Precipitation (mm d )
Fig. 3 Frequency distribution of precipitation events in the River Mitano catchment for: (a) historical
gridded station precipitation (1965–1974); and (b) transformed historical precipitation.

precipitation distribution of future precipitation using equation (2) by replacing log(Yt) with Rt
(Fig. 3). This procedure accounts for the bias in both the mean and variance of the PRECIS output
on the log scale. To convert back to a rainfall sequence, an antilog is required. This method
accounts for both changes in the intensity of precipitation and biases resulting from PRECIS
model error. However, the transformation and delta factor approaches are both limited by their
inability to represent changes in rainfall occurrence, which is demonstrated to decrease by 8%
under future climatic conditions (Mileham, 2008). Changes in PET were addressed using the delta
factor approach as only monthly data are available.

3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1 Delta factor derived groundwater recharge and runoff
The PRECIS A2 scenario for 2070–2100 indicates a 14% increase in mean annual precipitation
and a 53% increase in mean annual potential evapotranspiration (Mileham, 2008). Application of
mean monthly delta factors to the SMBM projects a 55% reduction in recharge and an 86%
increase in runoff. Mean annual recharge and runoff become 42 and 240 mm, respectively,
compared to 93 and 129 mm for observed historical (1965–1974) baseflow and stormflow
(Table 1, Fig. 4). Increases in precipitation during the two rainy seasons are mostly offset by
increases in PET, so that net increases in recharge are restricted to the months of April and
November. Intra-annual (monthly) differences between simulated recharge and baseflow result, in
part, from the inability of the SMBM to account for lag times between projected recharge and
water-table responses that influence baseflow discharges.

3.2 Transformed precipitation-derived groundwater recharge and runoff

Modelling of groundwater recharge and runoff using transformed historical precipitation produces
an increase in both recharge and runoff under projected climatic conditions relative to the baseline
period (Fig. 5, Table 2). Mean annual recharge and runoff are estimated to increase to 142 and
306 mm, respectively, compared to historical observed baseflow and stormflow of 93 and 129 mm,
respectively. These differences represent a 53% increase in recharge and a 137% increase in runoff

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734 Lucinda Mileham et al.

Table 1 Mean monthly modelled recharge and runoff using delta factor altered gridded River Mitano station
precipitation and delta factor forced Mbarara PET, mean monthly graphically partitioned baseflow and
stormflow and the percentage difference (% diff.) between observed and modelled recharge and runoff
outputs for the period 1965–1974. All fluxes are rounded to the nearest mm d-1.
Recharge Baseflow % diff. Runoff Stormflow % diff.
January 0 8 –99 4 5 –16
February 0 9 –99 13 4 +197
March 1 9 –87 30 12 +151
April 10 8 +24 35 16 +121
May 5 8 –40 23 18 +29
June 1 7 –93 11 5 +124
July 1 7 –82 7 3 +183
August 0 6 –100 15 2 +596
September 0 7 –96 31 10 +214
October 2 7 –79 24 12 +101
November 14 8 +70 34 25 +39
December 8 9 –2 14 17 –18
Annual 42 93 –55 240 129 +88

Fig. 4 Mean annual modelled recharge (mm d-1) using delta factor forced gridded River Mitano station
precipitation and delta factor forced Mbarara PET for the River Mitano catchment for the period
1965–1974.

under the A2 emissions scenario. These results are an overestimate of projected changes in
recharge and runoff as dry days are underestimated by 6% in the transformed precipitation data
set. The transformation approach results in 238% greater recharge and 28% greater runoff than
those derived using monthly delta factors. This difference results solely from the representation of
projected changes in rainfall intensity. Substantial (>70%) increases in recharge are projected
during the second rainy season (Fig. 5). In contrast to recharge estimates using the delta factor
approach (Table 1, Fig. 4), very little recharge is projected for the remainder of the year with
reductions in all other months, relative to mean monthly baseflow, ranging between 40 and 100%
(Table 2). Runoff is projected to increase in all months except May (Fig. 5). The greatest increases
occur between July and September due to the earlier onset of the rains (Table 2). Increases in
runoff during the first rains and the two dry seasons are smaller.
The use of mean monthly delta factors remains a standard approach to assessing climate
change impacts on basin hydrology (e.g. Arnell, 1999a,b; Guo et al., 2002; Tate et al., 2004;
Leander & Buishand, 2007; Linderink et al., 2007; Herrera-Pantoja & Hiscock, 2008) yet our
results show that this approach can substantially underestimate groundwater recharge. The
assumption of a constant relationship between modelled and historical precipitation under future
climatic conditions is, however, a source of uncertainty with the transformation approach. It must

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 The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff 735

Table 2 Mean monthly modelled recharge and runoff using transformed gridded station precipitation and
delta factor forced Mbarara PET, and mean monthly graphically partitioned baseflow and stormflow for the
period 1965–1974. All fluxes are rounded to the nearest mm d-1.
Recharge Baseflow % diff. Runoff Stormflow % diff.
January 0 8 –97 8 5 +62
February 0 9 –100 7 4 +64
March 0 9 –100 22 12 +86
April 2 8 –80 27 16 +69
May 1 8 –89 16 18 –9
June 0 7 –100 10 5 +100
July 2 7 –73 20 3 +715
August 4 6 –40 42 2 +1851
September 22 7 +229 58 10 +472
October 14 7 +84 31 12 +161
November 64 8 +698 40 25 +63
December 34 9 +300 25 17 +45
Annual 142 93 +52 306 129 +139

Fig. 5 Mean annual modelled recharge and runoff (mm d-1) using transformed gridded River Mitano
station precipitation and delta factor forced Mbarara PET for the River Mitano catchment for the period
2070–2100 relative to historical gridded River Mitano station precipitation derived recharge for the
period 1965–1974.

be noted that substantial uncertainties are associated with presented quantitative projections of
hydrological change. Our use of a single emission scenario (A2) and RCM (single, dynamically
downscaled GCM) makes this only one of a wide range of projections. To quantify the range of
uncertainty in hydrological projections requires the application of multiple scenarios and
models.

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736 Lucinda Mileham et al.

3.3 Water resource implications of climate change

Projected increases in recharge under the A2 emissions scenario in the River Mitano catchment
provide a promising outlook for future populations, yet increases in demand, due to a doubling of
Uganda’s population by 2025, are likely to exert considerable pressure on a finite water resource.
Initial studies indicate that increased demand is already driving increases in motorised ground-
water development, which has expanded dramatically since 2003 (MWLE, 2006). Furthermore,
the water supply system in Rukungiri town, the main urban area in the River Mitano catchment,
has already been singled out as being inadequate for meeting current town water demand, making
future expansions of intensive groundwater abstraction inevitable (MWLE, 2006). Increases in
intensive groundwater development are further expected as the Ugandan government intensifies its
efforts of providing safe drinking water to urban populations. For example, 782 small towns were
identified for the provision of piped water by June 2006. Around 70% of water supplied to these
towns is provided by groundwater, mainly through deep boreholes. Projected increases in the
number of dry days are also likely to increase water demand for irrigation in order to sustain and
expand food production. Indeed, socio-economic change rather than direct climate change impacts
are therefore likely to have a greater influence on catchment water resources, with particular
uncertainties associated with future intensive groundwater abstraction from the expansion of town
water supplies or irrigation. Projected changes in runoff under the A2 emission scenario of up to
137% are likely to constitute a serious hazard as most of this increase occurs during the second
rainy season, increasing the likelihood of flooding and soil erosion. In the deeply incised River
Mitano catchment, the risk of increased soil erosion is of particular concern, especially with
increased pressures on agricultural land due to population growth.

4 CONCLUSIONS
Through the application of a dynamically downscaled projection of climate change to a soil-
moisture balance model (SMBM), we highlight the critical importance of considering changes in
the distribution of daily precipitation in estimating the impacts of climate change on groundwater
recharge and runoff. Dynamical downscaling of climate change projections from the HadCM3
GCM under the A2 emissions scenario for a humid, equatorial catchment in southwestern Uganda
for the period 2070–2100, relative to 1960–1990, indicates not only increases in precipitation
(14%) and modelled potential evapotranspiration (53%), but also substantial increases in rainfall
intensity. Application of mean monthly delta factors of climate change with the same daily rainfall
distribution as historical (baseline) conditions to the SMBM projects a 55% decrease in ground-
water recharge and an 86% rise in runoff. Transformation of the daily rainfall distribution to
account for projected changes in rainfall intensity substantially alters hydrological projections and
gives rise to increases in recharge (53%) and runoff (137%). Although our analysis is based on a
single emissions scenario for one dynamically downscaled GCM, we show that the common
approach of assessing climate change impacts on catchment hydrology using mean monthly delta
factors can seriously misrepresent the projected changes in hydrological fluxes. Explicit con-
sideration of changes in the daily distribution of precipitation in simulating climate change impacts
on hydrology is particularly important in the tropics where changes in rainfall intensities as a result
of global warming are expected to be especially pronounced.

Acknowledgements The present work was supported by a Natural Environmental Research

Council (NERC) PhD Studentship (Ref. NER/S/A/2004/12194) to Lucinda Mileham at University
College London. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Directorate of Water
Resources Management (DWRM), Uganda and Leo Mwebembezi, in particular, as well as Richard
Chandler and David Plinston for their valuable insight and assistance during this study.

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Revised paper received 17 April 2009; accepted 18 June 2009

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