Argus Biofuels

Daily international market prices and commentary

Issue 23-205 | Thursday 19 October 2023

Highlights prICES

„„ Biodiesel premiums continue to post losses in ARA Biofuels spot prices $/t
„„ European T2 ethanol hits five-week high on trade Bid Ask ±

„„ FDM RSO prices fall as demand from biodiesel producers slows RED biodiesel fob ARA range
„„ Asia-Pacific biofuels: UCO fob China declines on thin interest Palm OME 1,019.00 1,029.00 -34.00
„„ US biofuels: RVO posts modest gains as D3 credits rise Rapeseed OME 1,194.00 1,204.00 -36.00
Soya OME 1,099.00 1,109.00 -34.00
FAME 0°C CFPP 1,059.00 1,069.00 -34.00
Market Commentary FAME -10°C CFPP 1,180.00 1,190.00 -36.00
UCOME 1,297.61 1,307.61 -38.20
Low demand weighs on EU biodiesel Tallow OME 1,247.61 1,257.61 -38.20
Spot prices for fob ARA range biodiesel fell further on POME OME 1,272.61 1,282.61 -43.20
Advanced FAME 0°C CFPP 1,357.61 1,367.61 -38.20
Thursday. Lower premiums carried most of the losses as
RED marine biodiesel (VLSFO blend) ARA range
the 7-28 day gasoil price dipped by a modest $3.70/t, with
Mid ±
thinning road fuel demand in multiple EU member states
putting pressure on physical biofuels blending. B30 (UCOME) fob 807.28 -7.79
B20 (Advanced Fame 0°C CFPP) dob 669.23 -12.06
Ucome outright prices fell by the most on Argus Open
B30 (Advanced Fame 0°C CFPP) dob 689.35 -9.71
Markets (AOM). Trade was initiated twice for 26 October-16 B100 (Advanced Fame 0°C CFPP) dob 815.15 +6.69
November loading in a range of $400-401/t, with spot value RED hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) fob ARA range
assessed at the $400.50/t traded average. This was down by HVO (Class I)
+930.00 +940.00 nc
diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* $/m³ (13 Oct)
$34.50/t on the day, while outright Ucome lost $38.20/t to HVO (Class I)
+1,192.31 +1,205.13 nc
its lowest since 9 June at $1,302.61/t. diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* (13 Oct)
HVO (Class I) 2,169.60 2,182.42 -4.00
Those in the crop-based biodiesel market told Argus that HVO (Class II)
+1,020.00 +1,030.00 nc
a portion of recent RME trade would be directed towards diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* $/m³ (13 Oct)
HVO (Class II)
French tenders for the first quarter of 2024. RME trade was +1,307.69 +1,320.51 nc
diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* (13 Oct)
initiated nine times on AOM – the highest volume since 26 HVO (Class II) 2,284.98 2,297.80 -4.00
HVO (Class III)
September – in a range of $280-325/t. The traded value diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* $/m³ (13 Oct)
+1,000.00 +1,010.00 nc

softened through the assessment period. Spot value was HVO (Class III)
+1,282.05 +1,294.87 nc
diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* (13 Oct)
assessed at the $296.67/t traded average, lower by $32.33/t, HVO (Class III) 2,259.34 2,272.16 -4.00
while the outright price declined by $36/t to its lowest since HVO (Class IV)
+1,090.00 +1,100.00 nc
diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* $/m³ (13 Oct)
11 July, at $1,199/t. HVO (Class IV)
+1,397.44 +1,410.26 nc
Fame 0 trade was initiated three times at $155-170/t and diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* (13 Oct)
HVO (Class IV) 2,374.73 2,387.55 -4.00
spot value was assessed at the $161.67/t traded average,
*HVO-escalated
down by $30.08/t. Outright value lost $34/t to $1,064/t, the Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)
lowest since 28 June. HEFA-SPK^ fob ARA range
In the biodiesel paper market, 79,500t of trade was re- SAF diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* $/m³ (13 Oct) +1,595.00 +1,605.00 nc
ported. Volumes were fairly evenly split between the three SAF diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* (13 Oct) +2,098.68 +2,111.84 nc
SAF 3,101.68 3,114.84 -4.12
contents Mid ±

European biodiesel 1 SAF (ex HBE-IXB Netherlands credits) 2,086.33 +75.22

European ethanol 3 HEFA-SPK^ cif NWE
European feedstocks 4 SAF diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* $/m³ (13 Oct) +1,595.00 +1,605.00 nc
SAF diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* (13 Oct) +2,098.68 +2,111.84 nc
Asia-Pacific biofuels and freight 5
SAF 3,101.68 3,114.84 -4.12
US biofuels and month to date averages 7 ^Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA-SPK)
Market news 8 *SAF-escalated

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Argus Biofuels Issue 23-205 | Thursday 19 October 2023

RED biodiesel fob ARA range, premium to Ice gasoil 7-28 day Biofuels spot prices $/t
Bid Ask ±
Transaction Price ($/t)
Bionaphtha fob ARA range 2,020.00 2,030.00 +5.00
FAME 0°C CFPP, loading 26 Oct 2023 - 16 Nov 2023 (1,000t) Biopropane fca ARA range 1,970.00 1,980.00 +5.00
Shell sells to Greenergy +155.00
Trafigura buys from Shell +160.00
Hydrotreated biofuels prices (volume) $/m³
Greenergy buys from Shell +170.00
Bid Ask ±
Rapeseed OME, loading 26 Oct 2023 - 16 Nov 2023 (1,000t) HVO fob ARA range (Class II)* 1,782.28 1,792.28 -3.12
Gunvor buys from BP +325.00 SAF fob ARA range* 2,357.28 2,367.28 -3.13
Gunvor buys from BP +320.00
SAF cif NWE* 2,357.28 2,367.28 -3.13
Shell buys from Hartree +300.00
Bionaphtha fob ARA range* 1,393.80 1,400.70 +3.45
Viterra B.V. sells to Shell +300.00
Biopropane fca ARA range* 1,028.34 1,033.56 +2.61
Vitol sells to Shell +295.00
*HVO, SAF, bionaphtha and biopropane have assumed densities of 0.78kg/l,
Viterra B.V. sells to Shell +290.00
0.76kg/l, 0.69kg/l and 0.522kg/l respectively.
Vitol sells to Shell +280.00
Petroineos buys from STX +280.00
Viterra B.V. sells to Shell +280.00 Biofuels spot prices $/t
Bid Ask ±
UCOME, loading 26 Oct 2023 - 16 Nov 2023 (1,000t)
RED ethanol fob ARA range
Greenergy sells to Shell +401.00
Greenergy sells to Glencore +400.00 T2 premium ethanol inc duty €/m³ 854.00 864.00 +19.75
T2 premium ethanol inc duty 1,144.77 1,158.18 +30.98

grades. And 2Q Fame 0 traded the most number of times T2 premium ethanol diff to Eurobob oxy +322.52 +335.43
T2 ethanol inc duty €/m³ 819.00 829.00 +19.75
with three deals at $232.50-245/t, for 5,000t/month in total.
T2 ethanol inc duty 1,097.86 1,111.26 +30.80
T2 ethanol diff to Eurobob oxy +275.61 +288.51
Total trade volumes RME, Fame 0, UCOME t RED biomethanol
500,000 Biomethanol fob ARA range netback 1,161.00 1,169.00 nc
Biomethanol fob ARA range netback €/t 1,097.73 1,105.29 -4.43
Biomethanol fob ARA range diff to methanol +837.42 +847.42
400,000
Biomethanol cif UK 1,195.00 1,205.00 nc
ETBE
300,000 ETBE fob Rotterdam (18 Oct) 1,597.00 1,598.00 +41.13
FAME 0 Diff to MTBE (18 Oct) +175.00
RME
200,000
UCOME
Feedstock prices
Bid Ask ±
100,000
Rapeseed oil (RSO) €/t
Contract
0
RSO fob Dutch mill prompt 958.00 968.00 -8.00
Mar 20 May 21 Jul 22 Sep 23
RSO fob Dutch mill NDJ 930.50 940.50 -8.00
RSO fob Dutch mill FMA 895.00 905.00 -8.00
RSO fob Dutch mill MJJ 900.00 910.00 -6.00
Biodiesel fob ARA vs 7-28 day Ice gasoil $/t
Sunflower oil (SFO) $/t
SFO fob northwest Europe 6 ports JFM 895.00 920.00 -15.00
Rapeseed OME RED fob ARA
Used cooking oil (UCO) $/t
FAME 0C CFPP RED fob ARA
7-28 day Ice gasoil UCO fob ARA range 1,060.00 1,070.00 nc
1,600 UCO cif ARA 920.00 930.00 +5.00
UCO ex-works Netherlands €/t 1,005.00 1,015.00 -10.00
1,400
UCO ex-works Netherlands 1,062.93 1,073.51 -6.26

1,200 hh Tallow fca northwest Europe $/t

Tallow categories 1 and 2 €/t 745.00 755.00 nc
1,000 Tallow categories 1 and 2 787.94 798.52 +3.18
Tallow category 3 €/t 1,035.00 1,045.00 nc
800 Tallow category 3 1,094.66 1,105.24 +4.41
Palm oil mill effluent (POME) $/t
600
POME oil cif ARA 910.00 920.00 nc
21 Jul 21 Aug 20 Sep 19 Oct

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Argus Biofuels Issue 23-205 | Thursday 19 October 2023

European ethanol Ice gasoil $/t

T2 prices firmed to its highest in five weeks, and two bids Contract Value ±

remained unmatched in the afternoon window. Swaps

One lower greenhouse gas (GHG) savings ethanol barge 7 to 28 days forward 902.11 -3.70
changed hands on Thursday at €824/m³ for 24-28 October
7 to 28 days forward (HVO-escalated) 977.29 -4.00
loading. At the close, two bids remained at €800/m³ and
7 to 28 days forward (SAF-escalated) 1,003.00 -4.12
€805/m³, for 24-28 and 27-31 October loading, respectively.
Settle
Argus assessed the lower GHG savings ethanol fob ARA
Nov 910.00 -2.75
range spot price at €824/m³, the deal level and €19.75/m³
firmer on the day. Dec 884.75 -0.25

The gasoline-ethanol spread is slightly tighter than seen Jan 870.75 nc

at the beginning of the week, but gasoline prices are going

Gasoil spreads $/t
down with seasonality overall, according to participants.
Month Value ±
Natural gas prices in North-West Europe have been slowly
declining after a very sudden increase seen at the begin- Palm oil-gasoil spread (Pogo) Jan -85.50 -21.00
ning of the month. But ethanol producers were not really Bean oil-gasoil spread (Bogo) Jan 299.00 -27.25
affected by the spike, according to market sources, as many
RED swaps and forward physical prices $/t
can switch between energy providers, or hedge their energy
Contract Nov Dec Jan 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24
prices in advance.
The premium for minimum 90pc GHG savings ethanol RME swap
remained at €35/m³ over product with the lower savings tag. Mid 1,179.00 1,142.00 1,156.00 1,134.00 1,097.00 1,085.00
Market participants said that they continue to see very thin ± -13.00 -13.00 -3.00 -9.00 -5.00 -6.00
demand for high GHG savings ethanol, especially for mini- Fame 0°C CFPP swap
mum 85pc GHG savings ethanol. Mid 1,059.00 1,052.00 1,066.00 1,054.00 1,062.00 1,050.00
Prices on the lower GHG paper market firmed slightly by ± -3.00 -3.00 -3.00 -4.00 nc -1.00
around at €4-7/m³ on the day for the beginning of the curve, UCOME swap
but only marginally for the end of the curve. Trade reported Mid 1,324.00 1,327.00 1,356.00 1,329.00 1,332.00 1,320.00
to Argus comprised November six times between €796-798/ ± +12.00 +7.00 +7.00 -9.00 -10.00 -10.00
m³, two November/December spreads twice at around +€42/ PME forward physical

m³ (€796/m³, €754/m³), while two November/December/ Mid 1,019.00 1,002.00 1,016.00 994.00 1,012.00 1,000.00

January butterfly spreads dealt at +€11/m³ (€797/m³, €753/ ± -3.00 -3.00 -3.00 -4.00 nc -1.00

m³, €720/m³). Trade also comprised 1Q three times between SME forward physical

€715-716.50/m³, February twice between €713-715/m³, and Mid 1,109.00 1,102.00 1,116.00 1,094.00 1,072.00 1,060.00

February/March twice at +€3/m³ (€714/m³, €711/m³). ± -3.00 -3.00 -3.00 -4.00 nc -1.00

The paper market has been active in recent weeks, as Fame -10°C CFPP forward physical

term contracts are being negotiated. Some producers have Mid 1,167.00 1,133.00 1,147.00 1,126.00 1,094.00 1,082.00
± -12.00 -12.00 -3.00 -9.00 -4.00 -5.00
Ethanol NWE T2 swap €/m³
T2 ethanol RED vs Eurobob oxy $/t
Mid 798.00 754.00 721.00 715.00 713.00 703.00
± +7.00 +4.00 +4.00 +4.00 +1.00 +1.00
Ethanol NWE T2 RED fob ARA
Gasoline Eurobob oxy NWE barge RED biomethane (19 Oct) €/MWh
1,200
Bid Ask
1,100
Germany VTP (THE)
1,000 hh
2023 75 85
900 2024 75 90

800 Premium Germany VTP (THE)

2023 160 200

700
2024 165 205
20 Jul 18 Aug 19 Sep 18 Oct

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Argus Biofuels Issue 23-205 | Thursday 19 October 2023

cited slightly lower prices for 2024 tenders than the ones Renewable gas guarantees of origin (19 Oct)
Unit Bid Ask Mid ±
seen in 2023, which is also reflected on the lower GHG paper
market. Denmark
But producers also quoted better margins and said that 2022 crop €/MWh 23.00 25.00 24.00 nc
2023 crop €/MWh 24.20 26.20 25.20 -0.50
the ethanol market is more competitive, as more European
2024 crop €/MWh 25.45 27.45 26.45 -0.50
countries have adopted E10.
2022 waste €/MWh 44.45 46.45 45.45 -0.50
2023 waste €/MWh 45.00 47.00 46.00 -1.00
2024 waste €/MWh 47.20 49.20 48.20 -1.00
Food and feed crop feedstocks Netherlands
The prompt and all three-month fob Dutch mill rapeseed oil 2022 crop €/MWh 23.00 25.00 24.00 nc

(RSO) contracts moved lower on the session, pressured by a 2023 crop €/MWh 24.20 26.20 25.20 -0.50
2024 crop €/MWh 25.45 27.45 26.45 -0.50
flurry of trade for the February-March-April (FMA) strip and
2022 waste €/MWh 44.45 46.45 45.45 nc
losses in the wider vegetable oil complex.
2023 waste €/MWh 45.00 47.00 46.00 -0.50
Participants said that a slow down in demand from the 2024 waste €/MWh 47.20 49.20 48.20 -0.50
biodiesel sector coupled with the food sector mostly covered UK
until the end of 1Q 2024 has weighed on prices in recent ses- 2022 crop £/MWh 20.90 22.00 21.45 -0.15
sions. And, the European rapeseed supply was reported as 2023 crop £/MWh 21.50 23.00 22.25 -0.15

plentiful which could lower prices at the back of the curve. 2024 crop £/MWh 22.30 24.00 23.15 -0.15
2022 waste £/MWh 22.30 23.30 22.80 -1.80
The FMA strip eased by €8/t on the session after trading
2023 waste £/MWh 22.50 24.00 23.25 -2.05
three times, at €895/t, €900/t and €905/t, and was assessed
2024 waste £/MWh 23.65 24.85 24.25 -1.80
in the traded range.
Interest for the November strip was reported in a wide Renewable fuel ticket prices
€955-1,000/t range. December changed hands multiple times Bid Ask
throughout the session, at €910/t, €912/t and €915/t while
German GHG reduction obligation* €/t CO2e
interest for Janauary emerged at €900-910/t. Interest for Conventional GHG quota
October remained absent on the day. 2023 110 150
In the absence of tighter interest November-December- 2024 115 155
January (NDJ) was assessed in line with losses reported for Single-counting advanced GHG quota €/GJ

FMA, with the range at settling at €930.50-940.50/t. The 2023 2.50 3.00
2024 2.50 3.00
prompt RSO 5-40 days loading assessment followed suit and
Double-counting advanced GHG quota
was lowered in line with declines of FMA and NDJ, settling at
2023 270 305
€958-968/t on the day. 2024 300 330
May-June-July (MJJ) was bid, offered and assessed in a Other GHG quota
€900-910/t range, with the midpoint sliding by €6/t on the 2023 140 160
day. 2024 155 175
Annex IX part B GHG quota
2023 110 150
2024 115 155
RSO fob Dutch mill three-month strips €/t Netherlands renewable fuel unit** €/GJ
Conventional renewable fuel unit (HBE-C)
Forward strip 1 2023 4.50 5.75
Forward strip 2 Advanced renewable fuel unit (HBE-G)
Forward strip 3 2023 8.75 9.75
1,050
Other renewable fuel unit (HBE-O)
2023 8.75 9.75
1,000
Annex IX part B renewable fuel unit (HBE-IXB)
hhhh
2023 8.65 9.65
950
*Treibhausgasminderungsverpflichtung **Hernieuwbare brandstofeenheden
UK renewable transport fuel certificate p/RTFC
900
Crop-based RTFC
2023 16.50 18.00
850 Other RTFC
21 Jul 21 Aug 20 Sep 19 Oct 2023 17.00 18.50

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Argus Biofuels Issue 23-205 | Thursday 19 October 2023

International biofuels / feedstock differentials and freight

China vs fob ARA range $/t

Ucome diff: 237.61
HVO (Class II) diff: 238.89
Freight 5kt: 155.00
Rotterdam

UCO bulk fob China vs exw NL $/t

Diff: 185.22
Freight 5kt: 165.00
Shanghai

HVO fob Sg vs fob ARA range $/t

Freight 40kt: 76.50

POME oil fob Mal vs cif ARA $/t

Port Klang Singapore
Diff: 155.00
Freight 3-5kt: 155.00

Asia-Pacific biofuels International biofuels spot prices $/t

The Chinese biofuels and feedstock markets were subdued Bid Ask ±

on 19 October, with the Argus Open Markets (AOM) forum RED biodiesel
taking place involving many market participants in Shanghai. POME OME fob China 1,030.00 1,100.00 nc
A buyer and trader reported that discussions over bulk BGME fob China 1,030.00 1,100.00 nc
Chinese standard used cooking oil (UCO) were still at around UCOME fob China 1,030.00 1,100.00 nc
UCOME fob Strait of Malacca 1,100.00 1,120.00 -15.00
$880-890/t fob, in line with the previous assessed price.
PME fob Malaysia 820.00 990.00 +2.50
But such levels are difficult for Chinese suppliers to
PME fob Indonesia 730.00 950.00 +2.50
meet, given that collection costs are firm, supported by Biodiesel
demand from alternative end-users such as the domestic PME ex-works Indonesia 797.00 801.00 +1.00
animal feed industry. SME fob Argentina upriver (18 Oct) 1,090.36 1,110.19 -6.38
Chinese flexibag UCO was discussed between $930-940/t Houston fob B100 (18 Oct) 1,565.06 1,580.01 -0.71

cif Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA), equating to $880- Houston fob B100 (18 Oct) ¢/USG 523.43 528.43 -0.24

890/t fob China with container freight expected to increase Marine biodiesel
B24 dob Singapore 865.75 885.75 +22.50
for November-loading cargoes.
RED hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO)
HVO fob China (Class II) 1,975.00 2,130.00 nc
Strait of Malacca UCO, Ucome move lower HVO fob China (Class IV) 1,975.00 2,130.00 nc
Some southeast Asian UCO and biodiesel assessments moved HVO fob Singapore (Class I) netback 2,093.10 2,105.92 -4.00
lower, alongside a weaker European UCO methyl ester HVO fob Singapore (Class II) netback 2,208.48 2,221.30 -4.00
(Ucome) market and lackluster buying interest. HVO fob Singapore (Class III) netback 2,182.84 2,195.66 -4.00

Ucome fob Strait of Malacca offers fell by $10/t to HVO fob Singapore (Class IV) netback 2,298.23 2,311.05 -4.00
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)*
$1,120/t fob Malaysia, following the weaker European mar-
SAF fob Singapore netback 3,025.18 3,038.34 -4.12
ket, while bids had moved down to the level of Chinese ask-
*Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA-SPK)
ing prices and were now of no interest to sellers, a producer
Bionaphtha
said.
Bionaphtha cfr northeast Asia 1,880.00 1,900.00 nc
Several UCO suppliers reported there was little firm Ethanol
interest from usual buyers, including a key regional hy- fob Pakistan 830.00 870.00 nc
drotreated vegetable oil producer, because of the weak fob Pakistan (hydrous) 760.00 800.00 nc
market. cfr Mumbai 750.00 895.00 +7.50

Malaysian bulk UCO suppliers maintained offers at no cfr Philippines $/m³ 725.00 745.00 +15.00
B-grade cfr northeast Asia $/m³ 690.00 730.00 nc
lower than $890/t fob Malaysia for regular ICC-certified prod-
cfr China 610.00 870.00 +7.50
uct, although a trader reported that value had decreased to

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Argus Biofuels Issue 23-205 | Thursday 19 October 2023

$860/t fob. Some participants reported the spread between International feedstock spot prices $/t
Bid Ask ±
Strait of Malacca and China UCO prices is expected to widen,
with IV becoming an increasingly important price formation RED feedstocks

factor for buyers moving into the winter months. Brown grease dap China CNY/t 6,000.00 6,100.00 nc
Brown grease dap China 820.05 833.72 -0.51
A small 200t volume of Indonesian UCO for immediate
UCO dap China CNY/t 7,000.00 7,100.00 nc
delivery traded on 18 October at $910/t cif ARA according
UCO dap China 956.73 970.40 -0.59
to a supplier, while interest for regular November-loading
Premium UCO bulk fob China 935.00 945.00 nc
flexibag cargoes had fallen to $890/t or around $860/t fob
UCO bulk fob China 878.00 888.00 nc
equivalent.
Premium UCO diff to UCO bulk fob China +57.00
There was a trade for ISCC-certified Indonesian-origin
UCO fob China 880.00 890.00 -20.00
palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil in flexibag at $810/t cif Eu-
UCO fob Indonesia 860.00 880.00 nc
rope but the destination was not disclosed. Freight rates are
UCO bulk fob Strait of Malacca 860.00 890.00 -10.00
around $30/t, said the seller, making the trade equivalent to
UCO fob Vietnam 870.00 880.00 -20.00
$780/t fob.
POME oil fob Malaysia/Indonesia 750.00 770.00 nc
Indicative offers for ISCC-Pome oil in bulk remained at
Feedstocks
$770/t fob Indonesia while an offer at $800/t fob Indonesia Palm olein Malaysia/Indonesia fob
for 3,000t of INS-certified Pome oil for November loading Prompt 815.00 825.00 -6.25
remained, said several market participants. As a result, the Dec 820.00 830.00 -7.50
Jan 832.50 837.50 -11.25
southeast Asian bulk Pome oil assessment remains un-
Feb 835.00 840.00 -13.75
changed. Arg SBO diff to CBOT 1st mth (18 Oct) ¢/lb -13.90 -13.00

RED Prem UCO China vs UCO China vs UCO Straits $/t Freight (13 Oct) $/t
Size '000t Bid Ask ±
Premium UCO fob China bulk
UCO fob China bulk Malaysia - ARA
UCO fob Straits Palm oil 15-30 100.00 105.00 nc
1,050
PME 3-5 135.00 145.00 nc
UCO/POME oil 3-5 150.00 160.00 nc
1,000
Malaysia - West Med
Palm oil 15-30 95.00 100.00 nc
950 hhh PME 3-5 130.00 140.00 nc
UCO/POME oil 3-5 140.00 150.00 nc
900
Singapore - ARA
HVO 40 74.00 79.00 nc
850
China - ARA
UCO 5 160.00 170.00 nc
800
Ucome/HVO 5 150.00 160.00 +2.00
25 May 13 Jul 28 Aug 19 Oct
US - China
Ethanol 40-50 46.00 58.00 nc

RED Ucome fob China vs Ucome fob ARA $/t

Reference prices $/t
Ucome fob China bulk Ucome fob ARA
1,800 Month Settle ±

CBOT soybean oil futures (16:30 London time)

1,600
Dec 1,183.00 -29.32
Jan 1,169.77 -27.12
1,400
Mar 1,160.29 -26.90
hh
Malaysia palm oil futures
1,200
Nov 778.73 -18.08

1,000 Dec 782.93 -19.36

Jan 785.23 -21.07
800 Bid Ask ±
20 Apr 20 Jun 16 Aug 18 Oct Glycerine fob SE Asia 255.00 265.00 nc

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Argus Biofuels Issue 23-205 | Thursday 19 October 2023

US biofuels Biodiesel spot price averages October to date $/t

D6 and D3 credits gained value ahead of the Environmental Bid Ask

Protection Agency’s (EPA) September RIN generation data RED

release. Palm OME fob ARA range 1,081.21 1,091.21
The Argus Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) was last Rapeseed OME fob ARA range 1,304.14 1,314.14
measured at 12.46¢/USG, 0.04¢/USG above Wednesday’s Soya OME fob ARA range 1,161.21 1,171.21
close. 2023 ethanol D6 RIN credits were dealt at 93¢/RIN, FAME 0°C CFPP fob ARA range 1,121.21 1,131.21
boosting their value by 0.125¢/RIN. Credits with 2024 vintage FAME -10°C CFPP fob ARA range 1,285.93 1,295.93
were traded at a 2¢/RIN discount to current year D6 credits. UCOME fob ARA range 1,378.38 1,388.38
Biomass-based diesel D4 RINs from 2024 changed hands Tallow OME fob ARA range 1,328.38 1,338.38
at 91¢/RIN. Current year cellulosic biofuel D3 credits gained POME OME fob ARA range 1,358.03 1,368.03
3.5¢/RIN on deals struck at 343¢/RIN while 2024 credits Advanced FAME 0°C CFPP fob ARA range 1,438.38 1,448.38
traded at 292¢/RIN. International
Physical ethanol market prices mostly increased amid a RED POME OME fob China 1,030.00 1,100.00
muted start to the session on Thursday. RED UCOME fob China 1,035.56 1,100.00
Chicago Rule 11 railcars firmed by 2¢/USG to 224¢/USG RED UCOME fob Straits of Malacca 1,115.71 1,132.14
based on bids and offers for railcars scheduled for this week RED PME fob Malaysia 834.64 971.07
at 222¢/USG and 226¢/USG. RED PME fob Indonesia 740.00 934.29

Prompt in-tank transfers at Kinder Morgan’s Argo termi- SME fob Argentina (to 18 Oct) 1,092.50 1,110.04

nal strengthened by 8.25¢/USG to 240.5¢/USG as bids and

HVO spot price averages October to date $/t
offers at 234¢/USG and 247¢/USG surfaced. October any
Bid Ask
in-tank transfers were bid at 219¢/USG absent any seller
interest. RED
New York Harbor barges were unchanged following no HVO fob ARA range (Class I) 2,159.96 2,172.78
new market information. HVO fob ARA range (Class II) 2,337.15 2,349.97
HVO fob ARA range (Class III) 2,231.38 2,244.20

Renewable feedstocks: Prices remain steady HVO fob ARA range (Class IV) 2,373.33 2,386.15

Renewable feedstocks values remained unchanged for the International

third straight session on Wednesday as the lull in market RED HVO fob China (Class II) 1,975.00 2,130.00

activity continued to stem from an ongoing industry event. RED HVO fob China (Class IV) 1,975.00 2,130.00

Front month CBOT corn futures fell by 0.49¢/lb to RED HVO fob Singapore (Class I) 2,083.46 2,096.28

54.86¢/lb, while the January contract decreased by 0.55¢/lb RED HVO fob Singapore (Class II) 2,260.65 2,273.47

to 54.08¢/lb. 2023 D4 RIN prices firmed by 2.38¢/RIN to 93¢/ RED HVO fob Singapore (Class III) 2,154.88 2,167.70

RIN. RED HVO fob Singapore (Class IV) 2,296.83 2,309.65

SAF* spot price averages October to date $/t

Bid Ask

SAF fob ARA range 3,086.63 3,099.79

RIN biomass-based diesel (D4) current year ¢/RIN
SAF cif NWE 3,086.63 3,099.79

170 SAF fob Singapore 3,010.13 3,023.29

160 *Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA-SPK)

150
140 Bionaphtha spot price averages October to date $/t
130 Bid Ask

120
hhhh Bionaphtha fob ARA range 2,029.29 2,039.29
110
Bionaphtha cfr northeast Asia range 1,894.29 1,914.29
100
90 Biopropane spot price average October to date $/t
80
Bid Ask
70
17 Jul 16 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct Biopropane fca ARA range 1,979.29 1,989.29

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 7 of 11

Licensed to: Anantharaman Ramalingam, Mewah Oils & Fats Pte Ltd
Argus Biofuels Issue 23-205 | Thursday 19 October 2023

NEWS

EU biodiesel imports hit 3-month high in August Ethanol spot price averages October to date $/t
A return of Argentinian volumes to the EU, alongside a Bid Ask

steep rise in Malaysian imports and slightly higher levels of RED

biodiesel from China, lifted August EU biodiesel imports to T2 premium ethanol fob ARA range inc duty €/m³ 831.47 841.47
the highest since May.
T2 premium ethanol fob ARA range inc duty 1,111.39 1,124.76
Imports of fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) attributed to
T2 premium ethanol diff to Eurobob oxy +303.72 +316.58
non-EU origins narrowly exceeded 208,000t in August, up
T2 ethanol fob ARA range inc duty €/m³ 794.68 804.68
from 141,000t in July and 142,000t in August last year, provi-
T2 ethanol fob ARA range inc duty 1,062.23 1,075.59
sional GTT data show.
China remained the largest source, a position it has con- T2 ethanol diff to Eurobob oxy +254.55 +267.42

sistently held throughout 2023 following a large volume of International

imports in the first and second quarters. fob Pakistan 830.00 870.00
Chinese biodiesel volumes reached 88,500t, versus close
to 82,000t in July and 34,000t a year earlier. Feedstocks spot price averages October to date $/t
Argentinian biodiesel volumes returned to the import Bid Ask

balance following an absence in June and July, with 30,500t RED

registered. RSO fob Dutch mill prompt €/t 971.14 981.14
But with just 225,500t imported in the year so far, it
UCO fob ARA range 1,060.00 1,070.00
seems increasingly less likely that the EU will reach the
UCO cif ARA 931.43 941.43
1.2mn t quota on Argentinian biodiesel, with high prices for
UCO ex-works Netherlands 1,097.85 1,108.40
most of the first half of the year limiting new imports.
Tallow (categories 1 and 2) fca northwest Europe 785.66 796.21
In January to August 2022, the EU imported 781,500t of
Argentinian biodiesel. Tallow (category 3) fca northwest Europe 1,087.74 1,098.29

After China and Argentina, Malaysia was the third largest POME oil cif ARA 917.50 927.50

source with imports reaching 30,000t, the highest since May. International
In terms of exports, 116,000t left the EU, with most go- RED premium bulk UCO fob China 945.00 955.00
ing to the US at 104,500t. The UK took less than 5,000t. RED bulk UCO fob Straits of Malacca 894.64 911.43
This compares with 98,000t in July and 40,000t in August RED UCO fob China 900.00 911.11
last year. RED UCO fob Indonesia 874.29 900.71
Looking ahead, expectations in the market are that
RED UCO fob Vietnam 898.21 917.86
volumes of biodiesel from China could slow with an ongoing
RED bulk UCO fob China 894.89 904.89
EU investigation into the possible mislabelling of volumes
RED POME oil fob Malaysia/Indonesia 758.93 775.00
arriving from the country earlier in the year, and a slowdown
in demand for waste-based and advanced biodiesel in key
markets such as the Netherlands and Germany. same period of 2022. Even though La Mede has exported
By Thomas Hughes less HVO and blended more domestically this year, the plant
does not appear to be running close to its nameplate capac-
French HVO demand rises strongly on the year ity. The plant was calibrated around running palm oil, which
Volumes of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) blended into now banned in the French biofuels mix.
diesel in the French market were higher in the first eight Workers say the plant's performance has disappointed
months of this year than in 2022 as whole, supported by TotalEnergies, prompting the firm to plan a full turnaround
better availability at the country's main HVO plant and lower at an unspecified point next year to reconfigure it to more
exports. easily run on waste feedstock.
Latest energy ministry data show 145,000t of HVO blend- TotalEnergies said it will be the plant's first major
ed into diesel in January-August, already over the 115,000t planned shutdown since it came on stream in July 2019,
used last year. More HVO has been blended this year as although the facility has undergone previous maintenance,
TotalEnergies' 500,000 t/yr La Mede HVO plant has reduced in May last year as well as in spring 2021 and in 2020. It has
downtime, and the plant has exported fewer cargoes. also had some unplanned downtime, including following a
Argus tracking estimates TotalEnergies exported 52,000t of hydrogen leak in March.As well as higher HVO blending in
HVO in January-September, compared with 135,000t in the diesel, there are also record levels of biodiesel imports.

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 8 of 11

Licensed to: Anantharaman Ramalingam, Mewah Oils & Fats Pte Ltd
Argus Biofuels
France imported 1.14mn t of biodiesel in January-July, ac-
cording to the latest customs data, up by 5pc on the year.
Some 500,000t came from Belgium, 400,000t from the
Netherlands, 165,000t from Spain and 65,000t from Ger-
many. French biodiesel exports are much smaller, at a little
over 265,000t in January-July, down by 1pc on the year (see
chart).
Apparent French biodiesel and HVO output in January-Ju-
ly — assessed using import, export, demand and stocks data
— was 855,000t, down by 3pc year on year. Argus estimated
French output at 1.45mn t of biodiesel and around 275,000t
of HVO across the whole of 2022.
By Adam Porter
Portugal's biofuel blending down in August
Physical blending of biofuels as a percentage of road fuels
fell to a three-month low in Portugal in August, with a sharp
drop in the use of largely imported hydrotreated vegetable
oil (HVO) more than offsetting higher blending of other bio-
components.
Physical blending of biofuels dropped to 5.7pc of Portu-
guese road fuel deliveries in August from a 15-month high
of 7.8pc in July, according to latest data from fuel market
regulator Ense.
The decline was largely expected after biofuel tickets for
imported product issued by Ense fell to a six-month low in
July, providing scant support for HVO blending in August.
HVO imports appeared to recover slightly in August, with
Ense issuing tickets representing 193 t/d of oil equivalent
(toe/d) of double-counted advanced biofuels, likely imported
HVO, up by 15pc from July.
The higher HVO imports together with an increase in
tickets for imported and domestically produced fatty acid
methyl-ester biodiesel (Fame), bioethanol and bio-ETBE
probably supported blending in September.
In August, physical blending of HVO dropped to 160 toe/d
from an all-time high of 575 toe/d in July, more than offset-
ting an 8pc increase in blended Fame to a two-year high of
791 toe/d, reflecting an uptick in Fame imports that month.
Portugal’s biofuel plants produced 692 m³/d (540 toe/d)
of Fame in August, down by 20pc from July and the lowest
level since May 2020, when several of them had to halt units
because of a lack of storage.
Portugal's Fame producers sold 775 m³/d to domestic
blenders, up by 14pc from July, and exported 183 m³/d, up
by 62pc on the month.
Prices for Fame produced in Portugal increased by 7pc on
the month to €1,056/m³ in August but were 2pc lower than
Ense’s estimate for the month, according to the regulator’s
price index. Ense estimates that Portuguese Fame changed
hands at €1,097/m³ in September before declining in Octo-
Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 9 of 11
Licensed to: Anantharaman Ramalingam, Mewah Oils & Fats Pte Ltd
Issue 23-205 | Thursday 19 October 2023
ber, although biofuel ticket issuance points to an influx of
imported volumes in August, which may have pressured local
prices last month.
Blending of largely imported bioethanol also hit an all-
time high in July of 80 toe/d, up by 4pc on the month and
9pc higher on the year, supported by record gasoline deliver-
ies for the month of 34,000 b/d.
Among other bio-gasoline components, blending with bio-
ETBE, which Spanish integrated Repsol produces at its Sines
refining and petrochemicals complex, more than doubled on
the month to 273 toe in August, while blending of bio-naph-
tha fell to 23 toe from 28 toe in July.
By Jonathan Gleave
Eni to supply HVO to Lanutti
Italy's integrated Eni has signed an agreement with transport
and industrial logistics services provider Lannutti Group to
supply hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) manufactured by its
subsidiary Enilive.
Lannutti's European fleet consists of 1,500 trucks in eight
European countries, 300 of them already fuelled exclusively
with HVO.
Enilive's HVO is primarily produced from waste and
residues such as used cooking oil (UCO) or vegetable oil
processing waste, and can be made from oils produced using
marginal land not in competition with the food chain. It can
reduce CO2 emissions by 60pc to 90pc compared with con-
ventional fossil blends depending on feedstock, Enilive said.
Eni's Italian HVO plants ran at 55pc of capacity in the
first half of 2023.
By Gabriel Lorca Aicardi
Proposal to amend frequency of HVO fob
ARA range prices
Argus proposes to assess HVO fob ARA range prices
(Class I, II, III and IV) daily. Currently, Argus assesses
HVO premiums to Ice gasoil once a week, on Friday, and
daily outright prices are calculated using that weekly
differential and daily gasoil futures price. Under this
proposal, from 1 January 2024, Argus would assess the
premium daily.
Argus will accept comments on this proposal until 30
October. To discuss the proposal, please contact John
Houghton-Brown at john.hbrown@argusmedia.com or
+44 20 7780 4281. Formal comments should be marked
as such and may be submitted by email to biofuels@
argusmedia.com and received by 30 October. Please
note, formal comments will be published after the
consultation period unless confidentiality is specifically
requested.
Argus Biofuels
Austria's OMV supplies 500t of SAF to Ryanair
Austrian integrated energy firm OMV has sold 500t of
sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to European budget airline
Ryanair at Vienna Airport, in the first installment of an eight-
year agreement.
Last month, OMV agreed to supply Ryanair with 160,000t
of SAF from used cooking oil (UCO) over the next eight
years. The SAF will be delivered to airports in Austria, Ger-
many and Romania.
OMV has agreed to supply SAF to other airlines over the
last year, including Air France-KLM and Hungary's Wizz Air.
It also agreed in September 2022 to supply German airline
Lufthansa with 800,000t of SAF by 2030.
OMV plans to increase its SAF production to at least
700,000 t/yr by 2030, from 2,000 t/yr in 2022. The firm is
co-processing UCO at its 200,000 b/d Schwechat refinery in
Austria.
Ryanair aims to use 12.5pc of SAF in its fuel mix by 2030.
It plans to invest $62bn in a fleet of more fuel-efficient air-
craft, to help reduce its CO2 emissions.
By Madeleine Jenkins
DHL, World Energy sign 7-year SAFc contract
Logistics group DHL signed a seven-year purchase agreement
for sustainable aviation fuel certificates (SAFc) with SAF
producer World Energy.
The deal will see World Energy supply DHL with 668mn
litres equivalent of SAFc through a chain system called Book
& Claim until 2030. It said this will facilitate an average re-
duction of 1.7mn t CO2e over the period, which is equivalent
to 77,000 annual aircraft movements.
The third-party system enhances the accountability of
sustainable fuels by ensuring the emission reductions as-
sociated with each credit are accurately transferred and
verified. It permits the consumer to buy certificates without
having to take physical delivery of the fuel.
The contract is part of DHL's target to reduce annual
greenhouse gas emissions to below 29mn t CO2e in 2030.
"Decarbonising the hard-to-abate sectors requires com-
mitment across the value chain, and partnerships like the
one we are launching today are key to enabling companies
like DHL to meet their ambitions climate goals," said World
Energy chief executive Gene Gebolys.
By Charlotte Walker.
Stellantis eyes ethanol-fueled hybrid cars
European automaker Stellantis aims to start producing its
first flex-hybrid vehicles powered by ethanol and electricity
in Brazil by 2024, as it battles to control the electric vehicle
(EV) market in the southern hemisphere's largest economy.
Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 10 of 11
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Issue 23-205 | Thursday 19 October 2023
The world’s fourth largest automaker by sales — the result
of a 2021 merger between Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Citroen
— chose its Goiana Automotive hub in Brazil's Pernambuco
state to manufacture the new model, which will combine
electric and ethanol engines.
Stellantis found a helping hand in regional suppliers,
universities and research centers — such as the Porto Digital
Technology Park — to develop some of the embedded elec-
tronics and vehicle connectivity technologies.
Future, 100pc electric models will also be produced in
the same factory, according to the company.
Stellantis is also considering producing the new models
at its other Brazilian sites: Betim, in Minas Gerais state, and
Porto Real, in Rio de Janeiro state. But the company did not
give further details.
"Our priority is to decarbonize mobility," Stellantis'
president for Latin America Antonio Filosa — who will soon
leave the position to become Jeep's global chief executive —
said. "We want to do this in an accessible way for the largest
number of consumers, developing technologies and compo-
nents in Brazil."
Global automaker giants such as Stellantis, Toyota and
Volkswagen are wrestling for the lead in mobility solutions
combining ethanol and electricity, considered by most
companies the most cost-effective and affordable option for
decarbonization in Brazil.
In early September, Toyota ran its first tests using etha-
nol with plug-in hybrid mechanics, calling them "promising."
The car model used was a Toyota RAV4 Plug-in.
Volkswagen plans to introduce 15 electric and flex-fuel
vehicles by 2025, with hybrid models to follow.
In defense of ethanol
The controversy about whether Brazil should hybridize or
fully electrify its automotive fleet is far from over.
Stellantis' chief executive Carlos Tavares recently defend-
ed the prominence of flex-fuel vehicles. "EVs make no sense
compared with a car that can run on 100pc ethanol, not
to mention that it is much more expensive for the middle
class," he said during a roundtable discussion early this year.
Tavares argued that ethanol-powered vehicles should
play a larger role in Brazil, on the belief that there is mini-
mal difference in total carbon emissions between flex-fuel
vehicles and electric vehicles, while flex fuel vehicles pres-
ent significant cost savings.
Still, Stellantis has been working on the technologies
needed to develop hybrid ethanol-electric vehicles in Brazil,
eroding the barrier between EVs and flex-fuel cars.
By Vinicius Damazio
Argus Biofuels Issue - |

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