Modul 6

Kajian Kerentanan, Risiko dan

Dampak Perubahan Iklim

M.S. Fitriyanto, M.Sc. dan Dadang Hilman, MA.

Pelatihan “Membangun Ketahanan Air”
Selasa, 3 Oktober 2023
 Sub-Modul 6.2
“Kerentanan dan Risiko Penurunan Ketersediaan
Air dan Kaitannya dengan Water Security”

M.S. Fitriyanto, M.Sc.

Pelatihan “Membangun Ketahanan Air”
Selasa, 3 Oktober 2023
Review Konseptual
Apa itu Kerentanan?
Tingkatan yang mana merasakan dampak akibat perubahan iklim.

Bagian dari kerentanan termasuk:

Keterpaparan
Sensitivitas
Kapasitas Adaptif

/
Kerentanan = Keterpaparan * Sensitivitas Kapasitas Adaptif
 Unsur Kerentanan: Manusia

Siapa anggota masyarakat paling rentan?

Unsur Kerentanan: Lokasi

Dimana lokasi paling rentan?

Unsur Kerentanan: Aset-aset

Apa aset-aset paling rentan?

Langkah Pertama “Scoping”
Scoping untuk Identifikasi Kerentanan

1. Apa tujuan atau sasaran?

2. Apa “unit analisis” – kawasan atau sektor?

3. Siapa terlibat dalam Tim Inti dan pemangku kepentingan

/peserta lainnya?
 1. Apa Tujuan atau Sasaran?
• Untuk mengidentifikasi ancaman dan kerentanan di suatu wilayah atau
sektor?

• Untuk meningkatkan ketangguhan terhadap dampak iklim masa depan?

• Untuk meningkatkan kesadaran dan kolaborasi?
• Untuk memperoleh dukungan dari masyarakat dan sektor swasta?
• Untuk mengidentifikasi berbagai pilihan adaptasi?
• Untuk menarik investasi anggaran adaptasi perubahan iklim?
• Bagian atau semua dari alasan di atas? Lainnya?
 Perangkat untuk analisis kerentanan, pendekatan “top-down”
• Penilaian “top down” berdasarkan ilmu
pengetahuan

• Termasuk kondisi baseline iklim

• Mengaitkan proyeksi modeling Global dan
Nasional dengan sektor yang lebih rinci
Ekosistem, pertanian, kesehatan

Download at https://weadapt.org/knowledge- base/vulnerability/climate-

change-vulnerability- assessments
 Pendekatan “Bottom-Up” untuk penilaian kerentanan

• Analisis Tren Data Iklim (Bahaya) • Pendekatan indikator mata

• Pemetaan Pemahaman pencaharian
• Pemetaan Komunitas • Skenario Analisis Partisipatif
• “Pohon” Keputusan / Tren Statistik • Kalender Musiman
Kemungkinan
• Jadwal
• Teknik Delphi • Transek
• Analisis Kelembagaan • Diskusi Kelompok
• Cerita, Sejarah, Pengalaman Masyarakat • Pemberian Pemahaman
 Sumber informasi tentang paparan, sensitivitas, dan
kapasitas adaptif (“bottom-up”)

• Wawancara dengan informan kunci (e.g. petugas kebencanaan, perencana kota,

petugas sosio-ekonomi)
• Kelompok masyarakat
• Lembaga Swadaya Masyarakat dan Organisasi Masyarakat Sipil (LSM / ORMAS)
• Persatuan sektor swasta dan jaringan-jaringan penting
• Peneliti universitas dan lembaga penelitian
• Dokumen sensus dan perencanaan, peta zona tempat rentan banjir, dll.
Dampak Perubahan Iklim serta
Kerentanan dan Risikonya pada Sektor Air
 BAHAYA SEKTOR KESELAMATAN PELAYARAN Dampak
KELAUTAN THD. GELOMBANG
(MARITIM) EKSTREM Perubahan Iklim
Terhadap
PERUBAHAN IKLIM
DI LAUT
Peningkatan
BAHAYA SEKTOR KETIDAK-STABILAN PESISIR Bahaya Sektoral
PESISIR (ABRASI/AKRESI)
dan Ekosistem

KAJIAN BAHAYA KEKERINGAN

PERUBAHAN IKLIM
BAHAYA SEKTOR BANJIR
AIR

PENURUNAN
KETERSEDIAAN AIR
PERUBAHAN IKLIM
DI ATMOSFER
BAHAYA SEKTOR PENURUNAN PRODUKSI
PERTANIAN PADI

BAHAYA SEKTOR PENINGKATAN KEJADIAN

KESEHATAN PENYAKIT SENSITIF IKLIM
Elements and vulnerable points in a general water supply system (kiri)
A schematic of water transfer from the dam to the city (right)
Mohammad Karamouz F., Sara Saadati, Azadeh Ahmadi, 2010. Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Reduction of Water Supply Systems,
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2010: Challenges of Change, ASCE
Hazards and threats to a
water supply system

Mohammad Karamouz F., Sara Saadati,

Azadeh Ahmadi, 2010. Vulnerability
Assessment and Risk Reduction of Water
Supply Systems, World Environmental
and Water Resources Congress 2010:
Challenges of Change, ASCE
Elements and vulnerable
points in a general water
supply system

Mohammad Karamouz F., Sara

Saadati, Azadeh Ahmadi, 2010.
Vulnerability Assessment and
Risk Reduction of Water Supply
Systems, World Environmental
and Water Resources Congress
2010: Challenges of Change,
ASCE
Impacts of climate change on water supply systems
R. Proença de Oliveira, J. Saldanha Matos and A. J. Monteiro, 2015. Managing the urban water cycle in a changing
environment, Water Utility Journal 9: 3-12, 2015
Impacts of climate change on waste water drainage and treatment systems
R. Proença de Oliveira, J. Saldanha Matos and A. J. Monteiro, 2015. Managing the urban water cycle in a changing environment, Water
Utility Journal 9: 3-12, 2015
 Climate Hazards Assessment

Climate Hazards
Assessment
Climate Hazards Assessment

Risk = Climate Hazards

Climate Risks as Climatic Hazards

and Project Vulnerability Context

Conceptual Framework for Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

Modified from: Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2016. Guidelines for Climate Proofing Investment in the Water
Sector: Water Supply and Sanitation
 Identify Drivers of Vulnerability
Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2016. Guidelines for Climate Proofing
Investment in the Water Sector: Water Supply and Sanitation

Biophysical Drivers : Socioeconomic Drivers :

• poor land management, should be included in the overall
• deforestation, vulnerability assessment to provide a clear
• slash-and-burn agriculture, understanding of possible areas of
• monoculture cropping, intervention.
• slope instability, and
• geophysical instabilities. Common indicators of adaptive capacity
• ecosystems: mountain, low-lying coastal include human development indices,
areas. population density, level of economic
diversification, and extent of dependence on
agriculture for livelihoods, education levels
and literacy rates
Identify Drivers of Vulnerability
Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2016. Guidelines for Climate Proofing
Komponen Sistem dan sub-
Investment in the Water Sector: Water Supply and Sanitation
Komponen Sistem dan sub-sistem
sistem Ekologi: Sosial
▪ Karakteristik ekoregion ▪ Jumlah populasi (P/L): miskin,
(geologi dan tutupan vegetasi). tanpa akses terhadap air bersih.
▪ Topografi dan kemiringan ▪ Tingkat pendidikan masyarakat
lereng.
▪ Kebutuhan air bersih untuk
▪ Variabel meteorologi. rumah tangga, industry,
pertanian.
▪ Variabel Hidrologi.
▪ Kapasitas fiskal daerah.
▪ Jaringan DAS dan morfologi
sungai. ▪ Rencana Tata ruang (alokasi pola
ruang dan struktur; termasuk
▪ Litologi dan Jenis tanah.
infrastruktur air, sanitasi,
▪ Penutup lahan. sampah, dan drainase).

Sumber: Dian Afriyanie, 2023

Kerentanan Perubahan Iklim pada Sektor Air
terhadap Bahaya Penurunan Ketersediaan Air
di Provinsi Sumatera Selatan

Sumber: ITB - KLH, 2012

 Components of water
sector vulnerability to
climate change in Jordan

Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA). 2022. Vulnerability assessment of the
water sector to climate change in Jordan. RICCAR technical report, Beirut,
E/ESCWA/CL1.CCS/2022/RICCAR/Technical Report.16.
 1. Kajian Kerentanan
adaptive capacity Vulnerability component consists of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity
ability of systems,
institutions, humans, and V (Vulnerability) = (S (Sensitivity) x E (Exposure)) x AC (Adaptive Capacity)
other organisms to V = (Sensitivity x (Sensitivity x Exposure)
adjust to potential Exposure) / Adaptive
damage, to take Capacity Very Low Low Medium High Very High
advantage of opportu- Very High VL VL L L M
nities, or to respond to
consequences High VL L L M H
Adaptive
Medium L L M H H
[SOURCE: Fifth Assessment Report Capacity
(AR6): Climate Change 2022, Low L M H H VH
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change] Very Low M H H VH VH

sensitivity
degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or
beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be
direct or indirect.
The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in
the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by
an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise)..
[SOURCE: Fifth Assessment Report (AR6): Climate Change 2022,, Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, 2022]
exposure
presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems,
environmental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or
economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could
be affected
Exposure can change over time, for example as a result of land use change.
[SOURCE: Fifth Assessment Report (AR6): Climate Change 2022, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
2022)

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Annex-II.pdf
 2. Kajian Risiko
Climate change impact risk Climate hazard
The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical
R (Risk) = H (Hazard) x V (Vulnerability) event or trend that may cause loss of life, injury or other health
Hazard impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure,
Risk =
Hazard x
livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental
Very Very
Vulnerability Low
Low Medium High
High
resources (IPCC AR6, 2022).
Some climate change stimuli/hazard analysis :
Very Low VL VL L L M ○ Mean temperature change
Low VL L L M H ○ Mean precipitation change
Vulner- ○ Extreme precipitation
ability Medium L L M H H
○ Extreme strong wind
High L M H H VH
Very High M H H VH VH https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Annex-II.pdf

Climate vulnerability
The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including
sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt. (IPCC AR6, 2022).

Climate risk
The potential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of values and objectives associated with
such systems. In the context of climate change, risks can arise from potential impacts of climate change as well as human responses to
climate change. Relevant adverse consequences include those on lives, livelihoods, health and well-being, economic, social and cultural
assets and investments, infrastructure, services (including ecosystem services), ecosystems and species. (IPCC AR6, 2022).
Climate Risk Concept → interface to Engineering/Business/Physical Risk

Climate Risk Risk in Engineering/Business

R (Risk) = H (Hazard) x V (Vulnerability) Risk = Probability x Consequences

E (Exposure) x S (Sensitivity) (Frequency) (Impact)
V=
AC (Adaptive Capacity)
Environmental Engineering
(incl. Climate Change) Hazards Hazards
Flood Fractured Pipeline (A)
Landslide Leakage (A)
Oil Spill (P, E, A)
Explosion (P, E, A)
Example of Risk Map for Flooding Level of Consequences → Vulnerability Components
P E A R L
(Fatality) (USD) (USD) (USD) (USD)

• P : People • A: Asset • L: Legal

Baseline Projection • E: Environment • R: Reputation
Water Security Concept & the Key Dimensions

Climate
Risks
Definisi dan identifikasi kerentanan pada National Water Security (AWDO, 2020) (1)
Key dimension Definition Indicator KD Future Risk
Rural Rural household water ● Indicator 1 (access to water supply)—the percentage Risks to Future Rural Household WS:
Household security is about of rural people with access to different levels of water ● “Risk = Exposure or Hazard x Vulnerability
(KD1) providing sufficient, supply x Coping Capacity,”
safe, physically ● Indicator 2 (access to sanitation)—the percentage of ● Exposure or hazard—competing users
accessible, and rural people with access to different levels of (due to increasing demand), availability of
affordable water and sanitation services water (due to climate change)
sanitation services for ● Indicator 3 (health impacts)— disability adjusted life ● Vulnerability—human rights, population in
health and livelihoods, years (DALYs) for the impacts of WASH services poverty, inclusiveness
coupled with an ● Indicator 4 (affordability)—the percentage of ● Coping capacity—governance, financial
acceptable level of household consumption needed to afford safely and human resources
water-related risk, in managed WASH services ● Climate change impacts on rural and urban
rural households. water security cover a broad array of
issues from a decline and seasonal change
in water availability and glacial melt to
droughts. The regions will likely face water
shortages due to projected changes in
climate and growing water demand from
rapid population and economic growth.
Definisi dan identifikasi kerentanan pada National Water Security (AWDO, 2020) (2)
Key dimension Definition Indicator KD Future Risk
Economic Water Economic water ● Broad economy (availability, reliance, etc.); Risks to Future Economic WS:
Security (KD2) security is a measure of ● Agriculture (productivity, self-sufficiency, nutrient ● The main future risk for KD2 is climate
the assurance of security); change, which affects water productivity,
adequate water to ● Energy (productivity, self-sufficiency, energy security); reliability, and self-sufficiency in various
sustainably satisfy a and sectors. While climate change is generally
country’s economic ● Industry (productivity, self-sufficiency, industry anticipated to result in increased annual
growth and avoid security). and seasonal precipitation over most
economic losses due to regions
water-induced ● The effective management of existing
disasters. reservoirs including groundwater,
wetlands, and soil moisture and the
construction of new storage to smooth the
annual discharge cycle, providing water
during the dry periods for water supply and
irrigation..
Definisi dan identifikasi kerentanan pada National Water Security (AWDO, 2020) (3)
Key dimension Definition Indicator KD Future Risk
Urban Water Urban water security ● Water supply (service ladder Risks to Future Urban WS:
Security (KD3) assesses the extent to standards), ● In its previous editions, AWDO focused primarily on
which countries are ● Sanitation (service ladder standards), infrastructure-related urban water security issues such as
providing safely ● Affordability, piped water services and sewage collection networks. In
managed and ● Drainage (urban flooding), and 2020, AWDO built on this solid foundation and
affordable water and ● Environmental water security. incorporated natural, technical, social, financial, and
sanitation services for institutional risks into future urban water security. Four risk
their urban communities
sub-indicators are quantitatively assessed: urban growth
to sustainably achieve
rate (%), nonrevenue water (%), water consumption (liter
desired outcomes.
per person per day [l/p/d]), and energy cost (%).
● The current indicator value and its history are considered
in order to reflect the likelihood and consequence of high-
risk events in the future.
● Climate change and competition for water are additional
risk factors to be taken into account in KD3. Limited
availability of good quality surface water and groundwater
for urban water supply may require expensive
infrastructural solutions. The rapid decrease in
groundwater levels is a major concern in some urban
areas that rely on groundwater resources.
Definisi dan identifikasi kerentanan pada National Water Security (AWDO, 2020) (4)
Key dimension Definition Indicator KD Future Risk
Environmental Environmental water ● Catchment and Aquatic System Risks to Future Environmental WS:
Water Security security assesses the Condition Index (CASCI) Aquatic ecosystems, and consequently environmental water
(KD4) health of rivers, » Riparian land cover change security, will face escalating climate change impacts on many
wetlands, and » Hydrological alteration levels. Rising temperature trends will likely disrupt natural
groundwater systems » Groundwater depletion flow regimes and riverine connectivity, decrease water
and measures the » Water quality volume and quality, and exacerbate direct pressures already
progress in restoring faced by instream organisms and riparian vegetation. Shifting
» Riverine connectivity
aquatic ecosystems to rainfall patterns are effectively a form of long-term flow
● Environmental Governance Index
health on a national and alteration transforming the fundamental hydrology of aquatic
(EGI)
regional scale. systems and leading to decreases in the abundance and
» Wastewater treatment diversity of native aquatic organisms, thereby impacting
» Terrestrial protected areas aquatic ecosystem health.
» Sustainable Nitrogen Management
Index
Definisi dan identifikasi kerentanan pada National Water Security (AWDO, 2020) (5)

Key dimension Definition Indicator KD Future Risk

Water-related Water-related disaster KD5 is a composite of three water- Risks to Future water-related disaster security:
disaster security assesses a related disaster risk indicators: ● Risk is the product of three components that can change
Security (KD5): nation’s recent ● Climatological risk (drought), over time: hazard exposure, vulnerability, and coping
exposure to water- ● Hydrological risk (floods and capacity. Hazard exposure is exacerbated by climate
related disasters, their mudslides), and change, which brings about changes to regional and local
vulnerability to those ● Meteorological risk (storms and storm climatology and hydrology.
disasters, and their surges). ● Climate change threatens recent advances in economic
capacity to resist and The hazard and exposure components development and water security in Asia and the Pacific
bounce back. of KD5 are based on disaster impact and, thus, the livelihoods of millions of people. Higher
KD5’s definition builds data over the last 10 years, a temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, more intense
on disaster risk defined representative period, rather than tropical cyclones, and sea level rise are likely to disrupt
by the UNDRR—“the probabilistic modeling, to align with the hydrological, ecological, and social systems, which imperil
potential loss of life, other AWDO KDs and allow high levels energy, water, and food security and aggravate existing
injury, or destroyed or of transparency and replicability in the vulnerabilities in energy supply, agriculture, and social
damaged assets which assessment framework. With this structures.
could occur to a framework, KD5’s assessment of water- ● As KD5 is already oriented at dealing with climate
system, society or a related disaster security considers variability, activities should be prepared for a wider range
community in a specific disasters that are climatological, of climate variability—longer and more severe droughts,
period of time, hydrological, and meteorological and are greater floods, higher sea levels, and more powerful
determined quantified by their impacts on humans. tropical cyclones.
probabilistically as a However, quantifying hazard and
function of hazard, exposure is not easy (Box 7).
exposure, vulnerability
and capacity.”
Kerentanan Perubahan Iklim pada Sektor Air
terhadap Bahaya Penurunan Ketersediaan Air
di Provinsi Sumatera Selatan

Sumber: ITB - KLH, 2012

 Peta Risiko Penurunan Ketersediaan Air pada Periode Baseline 1990-2020 (kiri), dan Proyeksi 2010-2030 (kanan)
Berdasarkan analisis risiko penurunan ketersediaan air terhadap perubahan iklim di Sumatera Selatan menunjukkan bahwa pada
kondisi proyeksi (2030) terjadi perubahan dari tingkat risiko tinggi atau menengah menjadi sangat tinggi di sebagian wilayah
Kabupaten Banyuasin, Kota Palembang, OKI, OKU Timur dan Lubuk Linggau.
Sumber: ITB - KLH, 2012
 PERTANYAAN PENELITIAN
Seberapa rentan suatu wilayah terhadap bencana Apakah penyediaan layanan air dan sanitasi yang
yang berkaitan dengan air dan kapasitas mereka memadai, aman, dapat diakses secara fisik, dan
untuk bertahan dan bangkit kembali terjangkau untuk kesehatan dan penghidupan di
rumah tangga pedesaan
Kelompok 1 : Rural Water Security

Apakah ketersediaan air yang cukup

Bagaimana kondisi lingkungan sungai, untuk memenuhi kebutuhan
lahan basah, dan air tanah serta pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu wilayah
kemampuan untuk memulihkan secara berkelanjutan dan menghindari
ekosistem agar tetap sehat pada skala kerugian ekonomi akibat bencana yang
regional disebabkan oleh air
Kelompok 4 : Environmental Water Security Kelompok 2 : Economic (Agriculture) Water Security

Kelompok 3 : Economic (Tourism) Water Security

Apakah layanan air dan sanitasi yang dikelola secara

aman dan terjangkau bagi masyarakat perkotaan untuk
mencapai hasil yang diinginkan secara berkelanjutan

APA SAJA KOMPONEN KERENTANANNYA?

TERIMA KASIH