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How to do it properly?
imply that
why is it so ?
• Type 2 error:
– Not rejecting a false null hypothesis – failure to detect a true effect
– False negative result – failure to discover the effet in a properly planned study
How do we combat the errors of hypothesis
testing?
• Type 1 error
– Plan the study properly
– Use adequate statistical tests
– …be lucky
• Type 2 error
– Plan a sufficiently large group
– Use adequate statistical tests
– …be lucky
The acceptable probability of errors (type 1 - a)
• For type 1 error – it is generally assumed that a
5% probability of this error is the maximum
tolerable margin allowing the researcher to reject
the null hypothesis
– Results of statistical tests that show the null
hypothesis be true with a probability <0.05 are
considered „statistically significant”
P value
• Post-test probability that we reject the null hypothesis
incorrectly
• A low p value means that the results are more likely to be
due to actual effects rather than a chance observation
• Typically we consider p values <0.05 as „statistically
significant” which translates to be a sufficient weight of
evidence to claim that the observed effect is an actual fact
What if we want the differences to be non-
existent?
C. Sagan
The acceptable probability of errors (type 2 - )
• For type 2 error – it is generally assumed that the admissible probability of
this error is 20%
• The lower the better, but lowering it escalates the number of samples and
cost
• 1- is called statistical power – the probability that the study will be able to
reject a wrong null hypothesis (i.e. the probability of not making a type 2
error)
RS and AS approach to hypthesis testing
• Reject-support (RS) testing
Dependent variables
• Variables that may be merely monitored and measured by a
researcher, cannot be manipulated or changed; researcher does
not affect these values
Types of variables
• nominal
• ordinal
• interval
• ratio
Measurement scales - nominal
Nominal measurement - consists of assigning items to groups or categories
No quantitative information is conveyed and no ordering of the items is implied
Nominal scales are therefore qualitative rather than quantitative
Variables measured on a nominal scale are often referred to as categorical or
qualitative variables
Examples:
- religious preference
- race
- sex
- living in a village or a city
Measurement scales - ordinal
Ordinal measurements - are ordered in the sense that higher numbers represent
higher values, although the intervals between the numbers are not necessarily equal
Example:
Interval scale – the scale, on which the intervals between the numbers are
equal; one unit on the scale represents the same magnitude on the trait or
characteristic being measured across the whole range of the scale
Interval scale does not have a “true” zero point – it is not possible to make
statements on how many times one valus is higher from the other
Interval scales continued
Examples:
- The Fahrenheit scale for temperature; equal differences on this scale represent
equal differences in temperature, but a temperature of 30 degrees is not twice as
warm as one of 15 degrees
Ratio scale – is like interval scales except it has a true zero point
Examples:
Low accuracy
and low
precision
Low precision,
high accuracy
Precision
(repeatability)
• mean (arithmetic)
• geometric mean
• harmonic mean
• median
• mode
• minimum, maximum
Mean
- SD + SD
Median
Measures of dispersion
Statistical dispersion (also called statistical variability or variation) is variability or
spread in a variable or a probability distribution
where
and where the integrals are definite integrals taken for x ranging over the range of X.
Value of SD represents the average difference from the mean in the group
Standard deviation
A data set with a mean of 50 (shown in blue) and a standard deviation (σ) of 20
Normal (Gaussian) distribution
0.5% 0.5%
0.1% 0.1%
Standard error (of mean)
The use of SEM for comparing groups (controls-cases) does not make a
sense and neither does using SD for calibration curves
What is the median?
The interquartile range (IQR), also called the midspread or middle fifty, is a
measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third
and first quartiles
IQR = Q3 − Q1
Used together with the median for describing non-normally distributed samples
Interquartile range
i x[i] Quartile
1 102
2 104
3 105 Q1
4 107
5 108
6 109 Q2 (median)
7 110
8 112
9 115 Q3
10 116
11 118
How do we read measures of central
tendency and dispersion ?
Middle line –
mean
Box – standard
deviation
Total cholesterol
How do we read measures of central
tendency and dispersion ?
Middle line –
median
Box – upper
and lower
quartiles
Thank you for your attention