A STUDY OF ROAD TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN SELECTED CORRIDORS OF METROPOLITAN LAGOS BY ODELEYE, Joshua Adetunji BEING A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES OF THE UNIVERSITY OF LAGOS IN PARTIAL FULFILMENTS OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN THE DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY, SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF LAGOS, AKOKA, LAGOS, NIGERIA. MARCH, 2008SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF LAGOS a CERTIFICATION. This is to certify that the Thesis: “A STUDY OF ROAD TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN SELECTED CORRIDORS OF METROPOLITAN LAGOS” Submitted to the School of Postgraduate Studies University of Lagos For the award of the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (Ph. D) is a record of original research carried out By ODELEYE, JOSHUA ADETUNJI in the Department of Geography estene Arebien Delobye Ltrs my, Bilep [pers s A IE si DAT! Por. E. A. (laa. ale ape [Oe 48" SUPERVISOR’S NAME SIGNATURE DATE Me S1- onl Bess. allo SIGNATURE DATE xs alate (SIGNATURE DATE betAratiaur 7/08 IGNATURE DATE ailelos DATE Vperlccawers. AcOBNA5 | pan 2.470% EXTERNAL EXAMINER DATE DAS: NWILo alte SPGS REPRESENTATIVE DATEDEDICATION This work is dedicated to my late parents: Pa Isaac Oladipupo Odeleye (He taught me humility) and Madam Victoria Adunola Odeleye (She inspired my interest in Western Education) and All my teachers iiiACKNOWLEDGEMENT I give thanks to the Almighty God, for given me good health and understanding to complete this programme successfully. In the first instance, | will like to appreciate the commitment and sincerity of purpose of my supervisors viz Prof. I. A. Adalemo, Dr. S. I. Oni and Dr. A. S. Omojola. I am indeed grateful to Prof. I. A. Adalemo for his support, comments and fatherly advice at all times. His words of encouragement always soothing my heart and keep me going in the course of this program. Again, I will be forever indebted to Dr. S. I. Oni, who fired and nurtured my interest in Geography fight from my secondary school days till this present moment. His mentoring styles have also been of great help to me socially and academically. Furthermore, I am indeed grateful to Dr. A. S. Omojola for his comments on my thesis as well as his contributions to my work during the departmental and P.G. School Seminars. Moreover, I will forever remember my series of “6" floor corridor” encounters with him, in which he always advised me to braze up and finish the programme on time. 1 also thank all the academic and non-academic staff in the department for their contributions, comments and encouragement. The list includes Prof J.O Akintola-Arikawe, Prof. D. A. Oyeleye, Prof. Y. Balogun, Prof. 0. Oyebande, Prof .O. Ojo, Dr. Tunji Babatola, Dr. Feyi Oni, Mr T. Ogunkunle Dr. A. S. 0. Soneye, Dr. Balogun, Dr Uluocha, Dr. A. Abu, G. Ekop, Dr. Segun Adeaga, Mr Johnson, Miss Titilayo and others . Again, 1 will like to acknowledge the contributions of my fellow Ph.D. students in the department, to the successful completion of this programme. The intimacy I shared and enjoyed with the following colleagues: Messrs E. B. Ege, Charles Asenime, Vincent Olatunji, Kayode Olagunju, Miss Kemi Okanlawon, Miss Kemi Efunsade, Dr. Vide Anosike, Dr Mayowa Fashona, Dr Shakirudeen Odunuga and Mr Alex Uriti, assisted me in overcoming some of the vicissitudes of this programme. In the course of this programme, I had the opportunities of traveling across the world, This availed me the opportunity of meeting and learning from some of the world renowned ; viz Prof. John Adams of Geography academics in my area of specialization ~ Transportati Department, University of London, Prof. Stanley A. Morain of Remote Sensing Centre, ivUniversity of New Mexico, USA, Prof Dinesh Mohan and Prof Geetam Tiwari both of Transport Research and Injury Prevention Program (TRIPP) at India Institute of Technology, New Delhi, India. Others include Prof. Weer Rothengather (immediate past President of World Conference on Transport Research Society WCTRS) of Universitat Karlsruhe, Germany; Prof. Ahrens, Prof. Udo J. Becker and Dr. R. Baur all of Chair of Transportation, Civil Engingering Department Technical University of Dresden, Germany to mention a few. Again, 1 cannot but mention Prof. Elizabeth Deakin of University of California Transportation Centre (UCTC), Berkeley, who facilitated my visit to the Centre, and participation in the 2007 World Congress of the Transport Research Society (WCTRS) International Conference in Berkeley, Carlifornia, USA. Back home; I will like to appreciate the contributions of the following erudite scholars of Transportation to my work: Prof. A.A Ogunsanya of Geography Department, University of Horin; Professor Tayo Odumosu of Geography and Planning Department of Lagos State University, “Lagos; Prof K. Oyesiku of Tai Solarin University of Education (TASUED), Ijebu-Ode; Prof, Bamidele Badejo of Geography Department of Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye; Prof. B. Oghojafor of Business Administration Department, University of Lagos; G. T. Arosanyin of Economics Department, ‘University of Morin, and Prof. s.0 Onakomaiya (formerly of the Geography Department, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago- Iwoye), whd supervised my Masters dissertation. Furthermore, I will like to acknowledge the kind support of the management team of Nigerian Institute of Transport Technology (NIT), Zaria, from the beginning to the end of this programme. As a result, I will like to thank specially my Director-General/CEO (Dr Ibrahim Vandu-Chikolo) and other members of management namely Dr. A. G. Sumaila, Mr. Bojuwoye, Mallam A.Y. Yusuf and J. S, Jimada. I also thank my senior colleagues and contemporaries in the office, among this group are Dr. A. O. Odumosu, Dr J. A. Ojekunle, and Messts‘$. B. Akintayo, Femi Jemirin, Bayero. S, Farah and Maina Tarfa, Others include my staff in the Lagos office viz: Mr Abdul Hakeem Badru, Daniel Akpan, Yinka Aina and Mrs Toyin Arokoyo.‘Also, I will!like to acknowledge the contributions in kind of some of my friends and well wishers, who helped in proof reading, word processing, mapping and graphic designing in this work. Their words of advice and encouragement also prompted me never to look back. They include Dr A. Mustapha, LASU; Mr C.A Okusanya; Mr Obiora Madu, Mr Dada, Mr ‘Adeniyi and Mr Adeshina Olaoye; Miss Christy Akpan. I also thank some of my friends and family members, among whom are Messrs Leye Olatunbosun, Ayo Fatudimu, Peter Odeleye; Kunle Odeleye; Biyi Odeleye, Mr and Mrs Ola Anifowose, and Mr and Mrs A. Adebiyi, Mr Kunle Opesan who have at one time or the other supported me financially and/or in kind, in the course of my aspiration to attain the present academic status. Lastly, I will like to thank my wife, Mrs Funmi Odeleye, and children Seye, Ayomide, Folake and Hannah for their patience, doggedness, and fervent prayers while the programme lasted. ‘Once again, I give all glory to the Almighty God. viTABLE OF CONTENTS. Cover Page Certification Dedication Acknowledgement Table of Contents List of Tables List of Figures List of Plates Appendices Abstract CHAPTER ONE 1.0 BACKGROUND OF STUDY L.1 Introduction 1.2 Research Problem 13. Research Questions 14 Justification of Study 1.5 Aim and Objectives 16 The Study Area 1.7 Conclusion CHAPTER TWO 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Theoretical/Conceptual Framework 2.2.1 Down’s Law 2.2.2 “Predict and Provide”, “Predict and Prevent” 2.2.3 Traffic Equilibrium Theory 2.2.4 Concept of and Approaches in Road Traffic Congestion Management 2.2.5. Road Traffic Congestion Models vii Page(s) wc erw,a 2 3323 24 Literature Review 2.3.1 The Historical Antecedent of Road Traffic Congestion in Cities 2.3.2. The Characteristics and Dimension of Road Traffic Congestion in Lagos 2313 Road Traffic Congestion Causal Factors in Metropolitan Lagos 2.3.4 Institutional Issues in Road Traffic Congestion Management | in Lagos 23.5 Contemporary Global Knowledge of Road Traffic Congestion Conclusion CHAPTER THREE 3.0 3.1 32 33 34 35 3.6 37 3.8 THE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Introduction ‘Types of Data used Sources of Data Data Collection Strategies 3.4.1 Questionnaire Administration 3.42 Observatory Survey 3.4.3 Focus Group Discussion 3.44 Participants’ Observer Technique 3.45 Secondary Data Method of Analysis 3.541 Congestion Pattern Measurement 3.5.2. Building Traffic Performance Indicator Hexagon 3.5.3 Institutional Analysis 3.5.4 Traffic Congestion Prediction Method Geographic Information System (GIS) Projection of Road Traffic Congestion in Metropolitan Lagos Conclusion ' 33, 33 34 35 36 37 44 46 46 46 aT 47 47 48 48 50 50 SI 51 52 52 53 54 55CHAPTER FOUR 56 4.0 al 42 43, 44 45 46 47 48 49 4.10 4il 4.12 413 414 4.15 4.16 417 4.18: 4.19 4.20 COMMUTERS PERCEPTIONS OF ROAD TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN METROPOLITAN LAGOS 56 Introduction 56 The Socio-Economic Characteristics of Respondents 56 Age Distribution of Respondents 37 Occupational Characteristics of Respondents 58 Residential locations of respondents 58 Car Ownership among Respondents 59 ‘Commuters Travel Distance 59 Road Traffic Congestion Causative Factors 60 Traffic Congestion Prone Period in Metropolitan Lagos 62 Travel Time on selected corridors of Metropolitan Lagos 62 ‘Commuters Coping Strategies in Traffic Congestion in Lagos 64 Alternative Routes as Coping Strategy on Congested Corridors 67 Health Implications of Traffic Congestion on Commuters in Lagos 68 Respondents’ Perception of Traffic Light in Effective Traffic Management.70 Respondents’ Perception of Preferred Policy Options 1 Policy Issues in Road Traffic Congestion Management in Lagos 4 Beliavioural Assessment of Road Users in Traffic Congestion in Metropolitan Lagos in} Solytion to Non-Compliance with Traffic Rules 6 Respondents performance evaluation of Traffic Law Enforcement 76 8 Agents in Lagos Conclusion 1 ixCHAPTER FIVE ” 5.0 TRAFFIC COMPOSITION OF LAGOS SELECTED CORRIDORS 79 5.1 Introduction 9 5.2 Annual Vehicles Registration Pattem in Lagos 1999-2005 80 5.3 Car Traffic Dominance of Selected Lagos Corridors al 5.4 Rodd Traffic Congestion and the Average Number of Vehicles Available to 1000/People in Lagos 83 5.5 Traffic Density and Flow Pattern in Metropolitan Lagos 86 5.6 Conclusion 87 CHAPTER SIX 88 6.0 ROAD TRAFFIC CONGESTION PATTERN ON SELECTED LAGOS CORRIDORS 88 6.1 introduction 88 6.2 The Traffic Density Variation on Selected Lagos Roads 88 6.3 Hierarchy of Road Traffic Congestion on Selected Roads 89 6.4 Spatial Pattern of Road Traffic Bottlenecks in Metropolitan Lagos 93 65 In-Vehicle Drivers/Commuters Congestion Discussions 96 6.6 Incident and Accident Management Problem 98 6.7 Freight Nodal Points, Truck Traffic and Traffic Congestion in ‘Metropolitan Lagos 99 68 Vehicular Traffic flow and Pedestrian traffic situation at peak periods along the selected corridors in Metropolitan Lagos 100 6.9 Conclusion 100 CHAPTER SEVEN 102 7. ROAD TRANSPORT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS IN TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT IN LAGOS 102 7.1 Introduction 102 7.2 Road Transport Policy in Metropolitan Lagos 103, 7.3 Traffic Management Institutions in Lagos 104 7.3.1 Lagos State Traffic Management Authority (LASTMA) 104 7.3.2 LAMATA in Urban Transport Planning in Lagos 104 Allied Traffic Management Agencies in Metropolitan Lagos 1057.4 — The Multiplicity of Traffic Management Institutions in Lagos 108 7.5 Operational Activities of LASTMA and LAMATA in Metropolitan Lagos 109 7.5! Overview of LASTMA Operation (2001 - 2002) 11 7.52 LAMATA Operational activities 113 7.6 — Conclusion us CHAPTER EIGHT 116 8.0 ROAD TRAFFIC INFRASTRUCTURE AUDIT, LAND USE CHARACTERISTICS AND STAKEHOLDERS ASSESSMENT OF ROAD TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT IN METROPOLITAN LAGOS 116 8.1 Introduction 116 82 Land Use Characteristics of the immediate Environment of selected Corridors 116 83 Qualitative Analysis of Zonal Variation in Traffic Congestion Causal Factors in Metropolitan Lagos 18. 84 — Road Traffic Infrastructure Audit on Selected Lagos Corridors 122 85 Qualitative Analysis of Commercial Vehicles Operators Perception of Road Traffic Congestion in Metropolitan Lagos. 125 8.6 Performance Evaluation of Traffic Management in Lagos 2002 and 2005 132 8.7 Analysis of Relevance of Traffic Management Institutions in Metropolitan Lagos 134 8.8 The Need for a Paradigm Shift in the Establishment of Road Traffic Planning and Management Institution in Metropolitan Lagos 134 8.9 Model for the Establishment of a Mega Traffic Planning and Management Authority in Metropolitan Lagos 137 8.10 The Challenges of a New Mega Traffic Management Agency in Metropolitan Lagos 138 8.11 Conclusion 41 CHAPTER NINE 142 9.0 ROAD TRAFFIC CONGESTION PROJECTION IN METROPOLITAN LAGOS UNDER “BUSINESS AS USUAL (BAU)” SCENARIO. 142 91 Introduction 142 9.2 Corhputation of Future Vehicular Volume Growth 1449.3 94 95 9.6 97 98 Towards a Sustainable Urban Transport Planning in Metropolitan Lagos Sustainable Public Transport Development in Developing Countries Sustainable model for improved accessibility in Metropolitan Lagos Road Traffic Congestion and Urban Space Management Car Traffic Problem in Road Traffic Congestion Growth Trend: Case for BRT in Metropolitan Lagos Conclusion CHAPTER TEN 10.0 10.1 102 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 SUMMARY, FINDINGS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION Introduction Summary of Study Research Findings Contributions to Knowledge Importance of Study Implication of Findings Prognosis/Planning Implication of Findings Recommendations 10.8.1' Short Term Strategies 10.8.2 Long-Term Strategies Suggestions For Future Academic Works 10.9.1 Bus Rapid Transit 10.9.2 Road Pricing 10.9.3 Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) 10.10 General Conclusion REFERENCES APPENDICES. xii 146 148, 150 152 155 156 187 157 187 157 159 163 164 165 166 167 167 174 188 188 188 189 189 19k 204Table 1.1: Table 1.2: ' Table 1.3: Table 2.1: Table 4.1: Table 4.2: Table 4,3: Table 4.4: Table 4.5: Table 4.6: Table 4.7: Table 4.8: Table 5.1: Table 5.2: Table 5.3: Table 6.1: Table 6.2: Table 6.3: Table 6.: Table 6.5: LIST OF TABLES. Projected Populations of Megacities with a Population of more than Ten Million by 2015 2 Total Length of Roads in Lagos State 14 List of some of the Federal Government Roads by Local Government Areas in Lagos Is Standardized Road Traffic Volume 32 Travel Time Duration on Selected Metropolitan Lagos Corridors 4 ANOVA Test of respondents’ wake-up time according to socio- economic characteristics 66 ANOVA Test of perceived health implications of congestion according to respondents socio-economic characteristics, 6 ANOVA Test of Respondents’ Preference for Traffic Light. 1 ANOVA Test of respondents’ preferred policy options. B Respondents level of Apprehension of Traffic Law "4 Reasons for Non-Compliance with rules by Road Users % Solution to Non-compliance with Traffic Rules 16 Total Number of Newly Registered Vehicles and Renewed Vehicles Licenses in Lagos State 1999 ~ 2005 9 Nigerian Economy Growth Trend and Projection 2 Average Vehicles Availability per 000 people in Lagos 85 12-Hours Traffic Count on Selected Roads in Metropolitan Lagos 89 ‘The Hierarchy of Road Traffic Congestion on selected Lagos roads. (90 Vehicular traffic volume and geometric dimension of selected Lagos corridors 92 The correlation matrix of lanes and width of selected roads and Congestion pattern in selected Lagos corridors. 93 Types of “DUES” being collected by Touts on Highways in 98 Metropolitan Lagos, \ \ ' xiii iTable 7.1: Table 8.1: Table 8.2: Table 8.3: Table 8.4; Table 8.5: Table 8.6: Table 9.1: Table 9.2: Table 9.3: LASTMA Zonal Traffic Management Offices 104 Land Use Pattern and Traffic Congestion along Selected Lagos Corridors 117 Analysis of Zonal Variation in Traffic Congestion Causal Factors in Metropolitan Lagos 120 Road Traffic Infrastructure Audit on Selected Lagos Corridors 123, Commercial Vehicles Operators Assessment of Road Traffic Congestion in Metropolitan Lagos. 126 Sustainable Transport Policy Benchmark of Traffic Management Institutions in Metropolitan Lagos. 133 Traffic Management Techniques for Critical Traffic Points in Metropolitan Lagos 139 Computation of future Vehicular Volume Growth Rate for Future Traffic Prediction in Lagos 143 Growth Rate Trend in GDP Population and Newly Registered Vehicles 144 Planning Processes for Sustainable Urban Transport 151 xivFig 1.1: Fig 1.2: Fig 2.1: Fig 4.1 Fig 4.2: Fig 43: Fig 4.4: Fig 4.5: Fig 4.6: Fig 4.7: Fig 4.8: Fig 4.9: Fig 4.10: Fig. 4.11: Fig 4.12: Fig 4.13: Fig 4.14: Fig 4.15: Fig 4.16: Fig 5.1: Fig 5.2; Fig, 5.3: Fig. 5.4: Fig 6.1: LIST OF FIGURES Vicious Circle of Urban Degradation Administrative Map of Metropolitan Lagos The Land Use Transport Cycle, Gender characteristics of respondents Age of Respondents Respondents Occupation Respondents residential Locations Car Ownership among Respondents Travel Distance Among respondents Respondents perception of congestion causative factors in Lagos Traffic Peak Periods on Lagos Roads Commuters perception of Travel Time to Work Wake-up time and Congestion in Study Area Alternative routes as commuters coping strategy on congested corridors Commuters Perceived Health Implications of Congestion Preference for Traffic Light Commuters Choice of Public Transport Options Respondents Behavioural Assessment of Road Users in Traffic Congestion in Metropolitan Lagos Respondents Performance Evaluation of Traffic Law Enforcement Agents in Lagos. Comparative Analysis of Newly Registered Vehicles and Renewed Vehicles Licences in Lagos State 1999 ~ 2005 Percentage of Cars in Total Vehicular Volume in Metropolitan Lagos Predominance of cars in Lagos Traffic ‘Tretid of Newly Registered Motorcycles in Lagos State (1995-2005) Road Traffic Congestion Pattern along Selected corridors of Lagos. xv Mt 29 37 37 58 59 59 60 61 62 63 65 67 68 70 2 75 7 80 81 83 84 9Fig 6.2: Spat Pattern of road Traffic Bottleneck on Lagos Roads 94 Fig. 7.1: Road Traffic Congestion Management and Institutional Arrangement in Lagos 107 Fig 7.2: Traffic Offence ‘Types and Road Traffic Congestion in Metropolitan Lagos 110 Fig. 7.3: Total Revenue realised by LASTMA from fines in various Zones Wi Fig. 7.4: Number of Traffic Offences ‘Committed in Metropolitan Lagos (2001-2002) 112 Fig. 7.5: Number of Towed Vehicles by type of Ownership 2001 2002 113 Fig. 8.1: Stakeholders’ Assessment of Level of Improvements in Traffic Management in Metropolitan Lagos 132 Fig 8.2: Proposed Organogram of a Mega-Traffic Planning and Management Authority in Lagos. 136 Fig 9.1: Projected Annual Vehicular Volume 1999 ~ 2012 143, Fig 9.2: Comparative GDP Population and Newly Registered Vehicles Growth Rate Trend 145 Sustainable Transport Solutions 146 Three Pillars of Sustainable Mobility 147 Fig 10.1: Proposed Freight Distribution Centres and Park & Ride Infrastructure in Metropolitan Lagos 169 Fig. 10.2: Apapa: The Dominant Freight Nodal Point of Metropolitan Lagos 177 Fig. 10.3: Existing Jetties in Metropolitan Lagos 180 xviPlate 1.1: Plate 1.2: Plate 6.1 Plate 6.2 Plate 8.1 Plate 8.2 Plate 8.3 Plate 8.4: Plate 9.1: Plate 9.2: Plate 10.1 Plate 10.2: Plate 10.3: Plate 10.4 Plate 10.5: Plate 10.6: Plate 10.7: LIST OF PLATES ‘Traffic Congestion at Peak Period along Ikorodu road in Metropolitan Lagos ‘Traffic Congestion at Funso William Avenue, Surulere, Lagos On-Street Parking, Median Climbing and Traffic Congestion on Tkorodu Road » “Alm begging in Traffic Congestion along Herbert Macaulay Road, Yaba, Lagos On-Street Trading, Loading and Off-loading Activities in Ketu, along Ikorodu Road On-Street Bus-Stop and Trading activities at Ketu Along Ikorodu Road ‘Open drainage and indiscriminate Pedestrian Crossing on Lagos-Abeokuta Expressway A Typical Bottleneck Point in CMS, Marina, Lagos Space optimization in Urban Transport Planning Artistic Impression of a Car-Free Urban Environment Tram Exclusive Right of Way in Dresden, Germany Pedestrian Traffic Management in Berkeley, California 12 13 7 118 129 131 140 154 155 167 172 Sustainable Urban Space and Mobility Management in Dresden, Germany 175 Freight Train with Containerized Cargo in Dresden, Germany Park and Ride facility located near Tram Station in Dresden, Germany High Rise Residential Buildings in Dresden, Germany Articulated Low Floor Public Transit Bus in Berkeley, California, USA ‘ xvii 178 183 185 1864 APPENDICES Appendix | Road Traffic Congestion Models Definition of Symbols ' Appendix Ik Questionnaire Appendix Lit Frequency Tables Appendix IV Lagos State Traffic Management Authority Traffic Offences, Fines and Penalties Appendix V Functions and Responsibilities of a Typical Traffic Management Agency Appendix VI, Congestion Index Appendix VIE Operational Terms xviii 204 204 212 213 213 217 217 224 224 228 228 229 229 231 2317 ABSTRACT Road traffic congestion is a global phenomenon that bedevils the cities of the world, One of the negative impacts of this on socio-economic well -being of these cities is the Unpredictability of travel times. Lagos, a metropolitan commercial capital city of Nigeria is Rot exempted from this phenomenon. This research sets out to identify the diverse patterns of road traffic congestion in relation to human and road traffic environment causative factors in {Lagos with a view to recommending some cost effective and sustainable policy options for better and enhanced intra-urban mobility in metropolitan Lagos. \ 4m clear terms, the main objectives are to (i) identify the commuters general perception of, and coping strategies in, road traffic congestion ;(ii) identify the vehicular composition and volume on selected Lagos corridors and its spatio-temporal effects on traffic flow in the ‘metropolis; (fii) determine the hierarchy of road traffic congestion and the spatial pattem of road traffic bottlenecks in selected corridors; (iv) audit traffic management infrastructure in the selected corridors, (v) assess the traffic management policy and institutional framework in metropolitan ' Lagos, and (vi) proffer cost-cffective, sustainable solutions capable of economic negative impacts of traffic congestion in Lagos. mizing the so ! \ This study adopts quantitative and qualitative research methods in gathering and analysing the appropriate empirical and secondary data that reflect the study objectives. Primary data Were collected through administration of questionnaire on commuters who are regular travelers on these corridors. The questionnaire aimed at investigating commuters general Perception of road traffic congestion in Lagos, coping strategies often been adopted by commuters, the congestion causal factors, the health implications of traffic congestion on commuters, a§ well as the average commuter travel time duration at peak periods on these corridors. Data from the questionnaire were analysed in percentages and were presented in Figures and Tables. In addition, Focus Group Discussion (FGD), Participants Observer technique, and Observatory survey method were other forms of qualitative research methods used in this study to determine the dynamics of road traffic congestion phenomenon in Metropolitan Lagos. Data gathered through these processes were also analysed and presented quantitatively using tables, photographs as well as maps. Moreover, secondary data used in this study consist of traffic volume data on selected corridors, vehicular traffic pattern, and xixtrends in old and new vehicles and motorcycles registrations in Lagos, the population growth trend and projection of Lagos, the profile and institutional framework of traffic management agencies in Lagos. These data were sourced from Lagos State government publications and Journals. The importance of these data is to understand the dominant traffic pattern on Lagos Toad as it réiates to the ubiquity of road traffic congestion in Lagos. Also, to do a projection in travel demand as the population of Lagos grows, and implication of these in a ‘Business ‘As Usual’ (BAU) scenario. ‘The study findings reveal the clustered pattern of road traffic bottleneck points, the health implications of congestion on road users, the dominance and prevalence of car traffic as a grave challenge to traffic management in Lagos. Others include the problem of traffic management institutional segmentation, challenge of human contributory factors, paucity of traffic management infrastructure, and adoption of altemative routes as a congestion coping strategy in Lagos. To address these problems, the study suggests/recommends a combination of sustainable urban transport planning mechanisms such as development of a mass transit oriented programme, land use re-ordering, road pricing, integration of traffic management institutions in Lagos among others, in place of ever- growing preference for personal mobility, via Car Traffic which is claimed to be the major challenge of sustainable urban transport planning.CHAPTER ONE 1.0 BACKGROUND OF STUDY 11 Introduction ‘The transport system of any city is crucial to the effective functioning of its socio-economic activities. It provides mobility and access, critical to all the activities in cites. In other words, the vibrancy of socio-economic activities in cities depends largely on the level of Functionality of the transport infrastructure and services. Theoretically and empirically, the Beographical location of a city influences the pattern of its transport systems. For instance, a city located along the coastline is bound to benefit from the environmentally-sustainable Potential of water transport for the transportation of its goods and people .On the other hand cities located in the hinterland stand to enjoy the ultimate benefits offered by land modes such as roads, rail and pipeline. The integration of pipeline and road modes with the water ‘mode in any geographical location, help cities to grow in her economy as well as develop a vibrant social life over time and space. ‘Thus the combination of different types of transport ‘modes in regional as well as cities’ economy is inevitable. This is as a result of the derived nalure of transport. It is required for a purpose and not for its sake, For example transport is demanded for various reasons amongst these are health, academic, production, and social activities, Itis unfortunate that many transport systems are beginning to threaten the very livability of the cities theylserve. This is occurring even in cities where car ownership is still very low, because they are ill-equipped to handle rapidly increasing private-vehicle traffic. The resulting traffic congestion has a direct effect on economic growth, not to mention safety, noise and air pollution. The problems are particularly acute in the developing world’s largest cities. Swollen population and high density of vehicles of all types translate into major congestion, long travel time, exposure to air pollution and high accident fatality (World Bank,1999) and (IEA, 2002). Jn many lage cites inthe developing world, trafic is gridlocked, even though car ownership is still very low (IEA, 2002), with the world projected population (see Table 1.1) by 2015, 23 mega cities with more than ten million people are expected to emerge globally (Khatib, 2005) iTable 1.1:, Projected Populations of Megacities with a Population of more than Ten | Million by 2015 Cities, Population | Cities Population | Cities Population Tokyo 26.4 Delhi 16.8 Tianjin 10.7 Mumbai 26.1 Metro- 14.8 Hyderabad | 10.5 (Bombay) Manila Bangkok | 10.1 Lagos /23.2 Shanghai | 14.6 Dhaka 211 Los- 14.1 Sao Paulo 20.4 Angeles Karachi 19.2 Buenos- 14.1 Mexico City | 19.2 Aires New York 17.4 Cairo 13.8 Jakarta 173 Istanbul 12.5 Calcutta 173 Beijing | 123 Rio-de 119 Janeiro Osaka 11.0 Source. Katib H. (2005) Jn an assessment of global urban transportation externalities by the World Bank (1999) it is stated that road traffic congestion constitutes about 54.5% of all noticeable urban transport extemalities. Ineffectual public transportation system, air and noise pollution are responsible for about 54.8% and 59.4% level of urban nuisance respectively. When this transportation related problems are projected into the future in the report, traffic congestion will be worse, rising to 61.39%, while public transportation and air pollution related problems are expected to be 60% each in most cities of the world. The demand for transport especially in cities of developing countries has been on the increase following the rapid socio-economic growth and development of these countries, For instance, the rate of motor vehicle ownership and use is growing faster than population in many places, with the vehicle ownership growth rates rising to 15 to 20 percent per year. The average ! i 2distance travelled per vehicle is also increasing except for the largest and most congested ies. This growth often exceeds the rate of growth and maintenance of road infrastructure and road edmplementary facilities. The overall effect is the congestion problems experienced daily in these cities with the consequent negative impact on productivity (World Bank 2001). United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (UNCHS, 1998) asserted that travel speed is decreasing and the travel environment for pedestrians and people-powered vehicles are deteriorating in developing countries. For instance, of the sixteen developing cities with populations of more than 4 million reported in the UNCHS Global Urban Indicators Database in 1998, five cities namely Bucharest, Jakarta, Kinshasa, Lagos and Manila experience average one way journey to work times of one and a quarter hours or more. Traffic congestion, according to Hook (1998), constrained the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Hook expatiated that in some large cities such as Sao Paulo, Mexico city, and Manila traffic congestion has continued to impact negatively on the cities economic environment. The City of Lagos equally falls into this category, where the unpredictability of transit time impacts negatively on business and other related socio-economic activities, despite the fact that all these, motorization is still ata relatively low level in most developing ‘countries. In Lagos there are 100 cars per thousand population as against the more developed countries with about 400 cars per thousand populations (WBCSD 2004). The challenges posed by road traffic congestion in Lagos as in other mega cities of the world are enormous. For example, road traffic congestion in Lagos worsens as the urban economy grows, population and personal income increase and sub-urban environment sprawls. These factors are partly responsible for the increase in car vehicular traffic, which further aggravates the flow of traffic on existing roads. It is imperative that enduring and practicable solutions ate proffered, with a view to unclogging traffic on Lagos roads.12 Research Problem The problem of road traffic congestion in Lagos, according to Mabogunje, (1968) date back to the early 1950s,despite the introduction of traffic restraint edict of the Odd and Even numbers arrangement in the 1970s, the establishment of specialized traffic planning and management agencies like Lagos State Traffic Management Authority (LASTMA) and Lagos Metropolitan Area Traffic Authority (LAMATA) by the Lagos State Government in year tate the traffic environment of Lagos, road 2000 to enforce traffic regulation and rehabil traffic congestion continues to spread like a deadly cancer across the city. About NI3.8 billion was expended on different road projects by the Lagos government between 2000- 2003, mainly for road expansion and regular maintenance of road infrastructure (Lagos Digest of Statistics, 2006). Despite this financial commitment from the government, road traffic congestion in Lagos remains an enigma. The externatization of congestion costs has been a greater challenge of transportation planning in Lagos, as it is in most developing countries. Sperling and Claussen (2004), stated that “despite massive road building budgets in most developing countries, only a small nority of people own cars and benefit from the massive road building budgets. In contrast y ig traffic congestion, noise and pollution”. This is the vast majority suffer from incre: a need for s sustainable indeed true’ of the road transport situation in Lagos. There transportation policy that will intemalize the cost of transport negativities, such that individual users are made to pay for their contributions to urban transport problems like congestion and auto-induced air pollution in Lagos. ‘The unprecedented rapid sprawl of Lagos metropolis, due to the geometrical growth in the population of the city; and the relocation of the urban poor to the urban fringe are complicating the pattern of road traffic congestion in Lagos. For instance, the North-South uni-directional nature of traffic, at peak periods often choked-up traffic towards the city centres, where commercial and other social activities are largely located, in Lagos. Hence intra-urban travelers in Lagos, particularly, commuters often spend relatively long time travelling from one part of the city to the other. This is as a result of the severity of road traffic congestion at peak periods. For instance, a journey of fifteen minutes under @ normal traffic situation may end up taking forty-five minutes or more. This problem inhibits commuters’ access to urban resources which are spatially located across the metropolis. ‘According to Oni (1992) “traffic problems in Lagos are multi-dimensional; and bewildering.‘The countless man-hours lost in traffic congestion and the wastefulness of human energy and motor fuel are factors that have a most serious impact on the economic efficiency and social performance of the areas” This identified mobility implication of sprawling metropolitan Lagos, corroborates Flora’s (2001) assessment of the mobility and accessibility implications of urban sprawl on Mexico's urban poor. According to Flora (2001), urban sprawl increases the suffering of the poor. For example, 20% of workers in Mexico city spend more than 3 hours travelling to and from work per day and 10% spend more than 5 hours. Hence, the environment continues to deteriorate in many cities, in particular in the developing world, with consequential impact on health. This is a majot cause for conéern as far as transportation planning and road traffic congestion mitigation in Lagos is concerned. Fig 1.1 shows some of the variables responsible for the weakening of the urban traffic environment in most cities of developing countries. Prominent among these factors is urban sprawl which is a significant factor in the Lagos Metropolitan Area. Fig 1. Vicious Circle of Urban Degradation Petes os eee ty Py enn Low Income High Income Source: Pulichino, M and Mollet, P (2003)' The unpredictability of travel time as a result of road traffic congestion inhibits free flow of commerce and trading activities across metropolitan Lagos. For example, keeping a business and/or social appointment in Lagos is usually a serious problem, because of traffic congestion. Other problems related to road traffic congestion in Lagos include long waiting time by commuters at bus-stops, excessive fuel consumption by vehicles, erratic public transport fare, and high emission rate of lethal gases by vehicles in traffic. According to Badejo (1990) “Traffic congestion in Lagos impacts negatively on commuters as well as public transport bus operation”. According to him, “road traffic congestion is a significant rationale for avoidance of some major traffic corridors by public bus operators in Lagos at peak periods”. From the same perspective, Oni (1992) ascertained that traffic in Lagos is becoming so congested, and projected that in the not too distant future, there may be ‘occasions when the available traffic routes will be completely saturated and movement made impossible. Hence mobility and accessibility which are identified by Flora (2001), as the on d’étre, as well as the enablers of creativity and essential advantages of cities, the city's r innovation in ail walks of life, could hardly be realized in Lagos, because of road traffic congestion. On the health implications of road traffic congestion in an urban setting, previous studies revealed that it does have grievous effects on man and his environment. According to, Britton (2005) in a‘critique of “dysfunctional transportation” which has major global public health threat, he noted that “time pollution is the first thing we all see and feel. As a result of dysfunctional transportation we all spend far too much time stuck in traffic. This is taking away from the time we should have been spending with our families, with our own personal development, on our neighbours, doing important work, The stress that is related to this significant time- deprivation does little to improve our health or that of our families”. ‘Also, Al-Morgrin (2008) asserted that “Lead poisoning can be either acute or chronic, with Jead poisoning occurring more frequently due to traffic. Al-Morgrin added “the symptoms of acute Jead poisoning include vomiting, constipation or bloody diarrhea, with central-nervous ion, and even death. Symptoms of system effects such as insomnia, irritability, convul chronic lead poisoning include headache, weakness, constipation, and a blue line along the gums. All these associated problems of road traffic congestion make it a deadly urban problem that requires sustainable solution, in metropolitan Lagos. 6Past studies have confirmed that road traffic congestion in cities will persist, due to a number of factors like rising urban population and wealth creation (Downs 2004).Thus, the current disequilibrium in travel demand and supply of urban transport infrastructure, surging population and unchecked urban sprawl over time will definitely aggravate the severity of road traffic congestion in Lagos. In spite of the above listed road traffic related problems and challenges in Metropolitan Lagos, the key identified problem in the study area is the imbalance in the travel supply- demand in the road traffic environment. The imbalance is visible in the geometrical increase in the level of motorization and population of the city, without a commensurate level of growth in the provision of road traffic infrastructure, as well as multimodal mass transit facilities. For instance, as the city economy improves over the years, it attracts increasing numbers of migrants, which consequently added to the rising population. The geometrical ‘growth consequently induces travel demand increase as well as complexity in the individual travel patteta as the city sprawls aggressively into neighbouring settlements. The complexity in the individual travel pattern and business activities are, however, considered as parts of the factors responsible for the defiant nature of road traffic congestion and its attendant effects in Metropolitan Lagos, over the years. Consequent upon this, there is need for an in- depth study of the traffic congestion phenomenon in Lagos, so as to guard against current and future further expansion of its negative implications. Hence, this study aims at evolving sustainable transport strategies for cost-effective mobility of the mammoth population of Lagos, which was put at 6.8 million by the 1991 population census, and 9 million inhabitants by the result of the 2006 population census, and projected to more than 23 million people by 2015 by the United Nations, in such away that socio-economic activities will not be hampered by inaccessibility in the metropolis. i 13 Research Questions “The thesis notes the following research questions: () What are the commuter's perceptions of and coping strategies in road traffic congestion in Metropolitan Lagos? (i) What are the characteristics of vehicular traffic composition of selected Lagos roads? (ii) What are the intensity levels of road traffic congestion and the spatial pattern of traffic bottlenecks on Lagos corridors? (iv) What is the infrastructural capacity for traffic management in Lagos?(y) What are the institutional framework for road traffic planning in Lagos; and (vi) In what ways can the traffic congestion problem be better addressed? 1.4 Justification of Study ‘Transport corridors are important because they link the key economic centres of a country to their exit‘and entry points. They are, particularly, important because they enable raw materials and products to be transported, and therefore have a direct impact on the viability of trade, In a globalized economy, trade is becoming increasingly important especially in manufacturing, where product components are manufactured in many different countries and then brought together and finally assembled before being exported to markets. This often requires complex transport and logistic chains, Innovations such as “Just in time” delivery, makes it increasingly important that the delivery of goods can be scheduled quickly and reliably, thus requiring a fast, efficient and reliable transport infrastructure. In literature, corridor expansion is seems a practical solution to the ubiquity of road traffic congestion in metro Lagos. A case in point is the construction of the Third Mainland Bridge in 1989, But construction of new roads and expansion of old ones by successive administrations in Lagos has never ameliorated the problem, rather traffic congestion has been getting worse as population and vehicular volume in Lagos continue to grow by the day. The failure of past traffic congestion mitigation approaches such as construction of new and expansion of existing roads; the traffic restraint edict of 1970's, that is, the enforcement of the odd and even numbers scenario has necessitated a scientific enquiry into the major causes of road traffic congestion in Lagos. Also to determine why previous planning and traffic management approaches have not been able to address the problem of road traffic congestion in Lagos, This is with a view to proffering appropriate cost-effective solutions to the problem congestion in metropolitan Lagos. Inasmuch as mobility is regarded an of road trai ‘essential citizen right (Whitelegg, 2006), the need for improvements to transportation systems cannot be denied.1.5 Aim and Objectives “The aim of this study is to analyze the causes and diverse pattems of road traffic congestion on selected metropolitan Lagos corridors and evolve sustainable strategies for mitigating the traffic congestion problems. The study has the following specific objectives: @) identify commuters. general perception of and coping strategies in road affie congestion in metropolitan Lagos; (ii) identify the vehicular composition and volume on selected Lagos corridors and outline their spatio-temporal effects on traffic flow; (iii) determine the spatial pattern of road traffic congestion and traffic bottlenecks in metropolitan Lagos selected corridors.; (iv) audit road traffic management infrastructure along the selected corridors of metropolitan Lagos; (¥) appraise the traffic management policy and institutional framework in metropolitan Lagos; and (vi) proffer costeffective, sustainable solutions capable of minimizing the socio- ‘economic negative impacts of traffic congestion in Lagos. 16 The Study Area Lagos State lies in the South Western part of Nigeria on the West Coast of Africa. It is bounded inl the North and East by Ogun State; in the West by the Republic of Benin and in the South'by the Atlantic Ocean which washes 180 kilometres of its coast (Nigeria 1991)-The state is situated within Latitude 6 degrees 23°N and Longitudes 2 degrees and 3 degrees 42°E (Merem and Twumasi,2008) ‘The more built up Mainland and Lagos Island, according to Merem and Twumasi (2008), make up the areas referred to as Metropolitan Lagos, which accounted for about 80 % of the population of the State. It includes such residential districts as Ketu, Oregun, Mushin, lire, Yaba, Ebute-Metta, Apapa, Ikoyi, Vietoria Island and Lagos Island, The continual sprawl of the metropolitan area as observed by LAMATA (2007), is responsible for a complete disappearance of the political boundary between Lagos State and neighbouring Ogun State “The total land area of the Metropolitan Lagos at present extends to over 1,068 square kilometers (Merem and Twumasi, 2008).It currently has a total population of 9,013,534 million people (National Population Census, 2006).Metropolitan Lagos constitutes less than 2.5% of Nigeria's total land area of 923,768km?; and the metropolitan Lagos area encompasses eighteen out of the twenty local government areas of Lagos State (Fig 1.2). However, it accommodates over 6% of Nigeria’s total population. Lagos occupies a pre-eminent position based on all urban indicators, most especially demography. Demographically, the density of Lagos is much higher than that of any other city in Nigeria. Taiwo (2005), stated that while Nigeria's population density is 100 persons per square kilometre (PSK) that of Lagos is about 2,400 persons/ km? with annual population growth rate of between 5.0 to 5.5% (Taiwo 2005).It should be noted that all other cities are relatively small in terms of commercial, industrial and trading activities in comparison to Lagos. 10Fig. 1.2: Administrative Map of Metropolitan Lagos 00 osm LEGEND Metropolitan LGA | (0 Other LGA — Major Road Water BodyWater is a significant topographical feature of Lagos State, whereby water and wetlands covers 40 % of the total land area of the State (Merem and Twumasi,2008).Lagos area is naturally endowed with creeks, lagoons and navigable water bodies that are suitable for urban transit services. It has a rail line that runs longitudinally along the south-north axis of the metropolis. Thus, the city has every opportunity to develop and benefit from a seamless multi-modal transportation systems. In spite of this, road transport dominates more than 90 percent of the Intra -Urban Movement (Oni, 2004). Taiwo (2005) asserted that there are about 2,600 km of roads in Lagos that are frequently congested, with over 1 million vehicles plying them on a daily basis. Taiwo added “Lagos has the highest National Vehicular Density of over 222 vehicles/km against 2 country average of 1l/km, It is noteworthy that as at 1998, about 40 percent of newly registered vehicles in Nigeria are deployed in Lagos”. The major identified corridors with predominant heavy vehicular traffic are Lagos- Abeokuta road, the Lagos-Badagry Road axis and the Ikorodu Road, (Fig 1.2). The identified corridors are regarded as the primary development arteries of metropolitan Lagos by Babatola (2000) Plate 1.1: Traffic Congestion at Peak Period along Ikorodu road in Metropolitan LagosPlate 1.2: Traffic Congestion at Funso William Avenuc,Surulere,Lagos Source: Author's Fieldwork, 2007. The traffic flows approaching Lagos Island at peak times are mainly those arising from journeys to work in the case of probably 95% of the vehicles trips ending on Lagos Island ‘Access to the Island is by way of the Eko, Carter and Third Mainland bridges. Traffic congestion at peak periods are often pronounced on the bridges. According to Odumosu (2004) Mini and Midi Buses carried over Smillion passengers per day, while heavy buses, molue and others carried 1 Lmillion passengers per day in Metropolitan Lagos in year 2000 Odumosu added “Lagos Island, which is the financial nerve centre of Lagos State, generates cover two hundred and fifty thousand vehicles per day and over five hundred thousand people are estimated to work in the small area daily. The Lagos area is therefore characterized by traffic congestion on most streets through most of the business hours of the day. There are parking problems in some business areas and even in the residential areas. Street traders have become a menace by competing with vehicles for the available road space”. Moreover, Lagos State has a total of 509.97 kilometres of Federal roads, out of which asphalted roads accounted for about 365.66 kilometre, More than 70% of these roads are situated in the metropolitan area. The break- down of length and numbers of different categories of roads in Lagos State is as stated in Table 1.2. 13Table 1.2: Total Length of Roads in Lagos State ‘Ownership Total Length (km) ‘Numbers of Roads Federal 509.97 7 State 381671 3028 Local 3,573.7 6415 Source: Road Statistics, LSMW & I, Office of Infrastructure (2006) Table 1.3 shows the length and width of some of the major roads in metropolitan Lagos. 14Table 1.3: List of some of the Federal Government Roads by Local Government Areas in Lagos aan Local Government | Length | Width Area (lan) ™ Lagos = badan Mainland 20k | 20m ji) Maryland — Ojota ‘Mainland 6km 14.6m iii) Lagos — Tkorodu Rd Mainland 22km 73m Thy Yaba Roundabout = Maryland Mainland TatKm | 25am < TBBFird Mainland Bridge (From Mainland 30k | 20m ‘Oworonshoki -Adekunle) Vi) 3rd Mainland Bridge Lagos Island Tim | 20m Vil) Lagos — Badagry Expressway (up 10 igokm | 146m Seme) Vil Eko Bridge (Loops) Tages sland oeKm | 73 ie) Carter Bridge Access Lagos Island 164 km 44 x) Apapa Road (Ebute ~ Meta) Mainland $.6km 1 3p MaluRd~ Kirikin ‘Apapa om 45 Ti) Herbert Maceulay Ra Ghrough Oyingbo) | Mainland ize | 162 -Yaba ii Apongbon ~ Alaka (Eko Bridge) Liisland, Mainiand | 42km [184 Tih) Oyingbo— Kdumota Wainland oka | 16am Wa) keja = Agewe (OW Road) Thee Taam | 93m Ti) [ora Causeway —Iddo Wainfand San | 15m xvii) Mosalasi — Ikeja ‘Mushin: ‘Na 19m will) Liverpool Round About Ojota Kosele Beem | ion Xin) Loops and Ramps Kosefe Tak 73m 10) Apapa Wharf Liverpool Round About | Apapa. Tm Thom xxi) Apakun — ‘Murtala Mohammed Airport ‘Oshodi-isolo 5.6 km 14.4m xxii) Old Marina — Lagos Island ‘Eti-Osa 1.Skm. 73 xxiii) Ahmadu Bello Way — Bar Beach Eti-Osa 4.2km 73 WRiv) Obalende~ Apongbon Tagos Tsland Fam [10 xxv) Ikoyi, Road ‘Lagos Island 3.4 km. 73 Sowce: Federal Ministry of Works Highway Maintenance, Lagos (2006). 1SThe main traffic routes into the city are from the North, East and West. The traffic from the Northem part of the city enters the metropolitan area through the Lagos-Abeokuta Expressway and Agege Motor Road .The traffic from the North is linked with the traffic from the Eastern part of the city through the Ikorodu road. The converging points of these traffic in Ikeja, Oshodi, Jibowu, Yaba, Oyingbo end Funso Williams Avenue areas are regular points of traffic jam in the direction of Lagos Island and Victoria Island which are the Metropolitan area Central Business Districts (CBD). The constructions of the Lekki-Epe Expressway and IBB/Third Mainland Bridge as alternative routes to Ikorodu road, in the direction of the CBD from the easter part of the city, have added to the volume of traffic to and from the metropolis. From the West, the traffic approaches the city by way of the Mobil Road and the Badagry Express road, and the major traffic converging points on this axis are Mile 2, Orile and Apapa. These locations are also synonymous with conflicting traffic movement which normally fesulted in heavy traffic congestion. These routes which are the major traffic corridors of Lagos are noted for heavy traffic congestion, especially at peak periods. Traffic controls on these major corridors are managed daily by the Traffic Police, Traffic Wardens and LASTMA officials and every effort is therefore being made to maintain order and discipline on the roads. Lagos is geographical disadvantage such that there is no possibility for road traffic escape routes through the Souther part of the city, as a result of the aquatic nature of the area. This is responsible for the uni-directional North-South traffic flow pattern in the Lagos area. This identified traffic pattern contributes to the problem of traffic flow. As Lagos evolves into @ mega-city, the city has continued to spraw| into her neighbouring settlements. For instance, there has been a sort of gradual spatial encroachment, as observed in Adalemo (1981), into Sagamu, Ota, Epe, Badagry and tkorodu by Lagos. These towns now act as dormitory settlements to the ever increasing population of Lagos and hence the regular flow of traffic between Lagos and these adjoining towns. Because of the small geographical size of Lagos, relative to the commercial and socio- n for political activities taking place in Lagos, one other challenge facing Lagos is compe space. This has been exacerbated by the violation of the urban master plan. For instance, the uncontrolled mixture of land use and the illegal conversion of residential to commercial use in Lagos create traffic problems like congestion, bottlenecks, accidents as well as conflicting traffic movement in the study arca.~=+ 1.7 Conclusion The attribute of Metropolitan Lagos as one of the fast growing cities in the world is emphasized in this chapter. Lagos grew from a fishing hamlet, according to Odumosu (2004); and Adalemo (2005) to a bourgeoning metropolis, whose population density ranks second in the world only to Hong Kong. However, as a result of the population explosion in Lagos over the years, the demand for travel has also skyrocketed. Hence the persistence of road traffic congestion, The problem seems to defy all solution. Consequent upon this, road traffic congestion, in Lagos, as revealed in this chapter, is regarded as a social problem that impacts negatively on individuals, irrespective of social status or gender. It is a global phenomenon that every region of the world grapples with daily. It impacts negatively on developed countries the same way it affects the developing countries. Inasmuch as it impacts negatively ‘on socio-economic and environmental well being of people living in cities, the need for an indepth enquiry into the spatial pattern, contributory factors, planning and management processes socio-economic implications and institutional approach to congestion management becomes imperative in Lagos. This is with a view to recommending appropriate policy options for mitigating the negative effects of road traffic congestion in Lagos. 7CHAPTER TWO 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 2.1 Introduction This chapter outlines the theoretical/ conceptual framework that guides the study, and contains a review of relevant works so far conducted in urban transport congestion in Metropolitan Lagos and other parts of the world. ‘The chapter is organized into three main parts viz: 1. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework of road traffic congestion. 2. Literature Review 3 Conclusion 2.2. Theoretical/Conceptual Framework Theoretical/conceptual issues relate to the basic theories and concepts that help to elucidate the problem being examined in this thesis. They are examined in turn as follows. 2.2.1. Down’s Law ‘The road traffic congestion law, according to Downs (1962) states that, “efforts to relieve automobile congestion through highway and other infrastructure expansion will simply be undone by continuous growth in the demand for travel; thus fulfilling the now well-known and documented “Law of Congestion”. This is now widely known as generated or induced demand, Despite the recognition of Down's Law, few transport policies ultimately reflect this, and planners, politiians and citizens alike all hope thit the next road expansion will bring the elusive solution to congestion woes (Zegras, 1998). Downs (1999) wams that “ring road and bypasses may not provide a solution to peak-hour traffic loads: the most important thing to understand about peak-hour traffic congestion is that once it has appeared in a region, it iminated or even substantially reduced”. Therefore, building or improving cannot be: highways fo relieve congestion might be shor-lived in areas where population is projected to grow substantially. 182.2.2 “Predict and Provide”, “Predict and Prevent” The theory of “predict and provide”, “predict and prevent” as postulated by Goodwin (1997) is synonyrrious with the problem of urban traffic management, ‘According to Goodwin (1997) the axiom Was: first we forecast how much traffic there willbe, and then we build enough road space’ to accommodate it. This axiom resulted in a rapid, huge, expansion of road capacity, aid produced the national network of motorways in England. It is a process of meeting thé demand by supply of additional road infrastructures. The axiom’ also resulted in some things that we now mostly, have come to realize were a grievous mistake, like the destruction of the heart of some of city centres to make room for urban motorways. This however, served as the basis for 1989 national road traffic forecasts, called “Roads to Prosperity”. This was the time government in UK devised a road programme intended to “meet the demand”. However, the flaw of this programme was its inability to Keep pace with traffic growth. In practice Goodwin (1997) affirmatively stated that “Predict and provide” actually meant, inevitably, “Predict — and ~ under provide”, and a strategy with road building at its heart would not deliver improvements in travel conditions. This is called the New Realism. The main flaw in this programme anywhere in the world is that it has never kept pace with traffic growth. In ease of Lagos, Third Mainland Bridge is now congested; Lagos State government is planning for the Fourth Mainland Bridge, while Federal Government is concluding plan on a Lagos Outer Ring Road. New road attracts new set of traffic; in other words, it induces new form of traffic at completion. New roads have never been, and can never be the solution to traffic jam in the city. it is like loosing your belt to solve the problem of obesity. ‘Again, the total collapse of this theory in the UK opened the way to recognizing that the volume of traffic is — in part ~ the result of policy, and is therefore subject to some degree of This conclusively brings researchers in transport policy and planning to two choi propositions. One, that it will be difficult to match the supply of road capacity tothe forecast demand for it. And, two that demand is not an inexorable, external, given: it is subject to influence. 19‘These, consequently warranted the change from ‘self-fulfilling forecasts’ to ‘self-defeating forecasts’, Predict - and — provide according to Goodwin consequently, became ‘predict- and-prevent. He explained further that this was the reason ~ not just a change in fashion or shortage of funds — why during the 1990s ‘demand management’ has become part of the transport policy of every political party in UK. 2.2.3 Traffic Equilibrium Theory The Predict-and provide theory as stated above informed the following two basic clarifications on how road traffic congestion influenced the immediate environment of the congested iran routes. Also, it shows as well the aspiration of the authority to expand and construct new roads as one of the perceived proper ways of curtailing spatial expansion of road waffié congestion in an.urban environment. For instance, there is a sort of general misconception among Lagos commuters that congested routes can be avoided, thus save time and money, by choosing altemative routes. Bu, they are unaware of the principle of Network Equilibrium, according to Florian (1999) that stated suppose that between two points there broad enough to accommodate without crowding all the are two highways, one of whic traffic which may care to use it, but is poorly graded and surfaced; while the other is a much better road, but narrow and quite limited in capacity, if a large number of trucks operate the two highways and are free to choose cither of the two routes, they will tend to distribute themselves between the roads in such proportions that the cost per unit of transportation, or effective returns per unit of investment, will be the same for every truck on both routes. As more truck’ use the narrower and better road, congestion develops, until at a certain point it becomes equally profitable to use the broader but poorer highway”. Florian added, that Wardrop opined categorically that two principles formalize this notion of equilibrium. His first principle stated that “the journey times in all routes actually used are equal and less than those which would be experienced by a single vehicle on any unused route.” Under certain assumptions, another interpretation of this principle is that the routes traffic conditions and their tical to the actually used are the shortest in time (or cost) under the prevail perception by the travelers. Wardrop’s first principle of route choice, which is ide notion postulated by Florian, became accepted as a sound and simple behavioural principle 10 describe the spreading of trips over alternate routes due to congested conditions. The traffic flows that satisfy this principle are usually referred to as “user optimal” flows, since each user 20chooses the route that is perecived to be the best. On the other hand, the “system optimal” is characterized by Wardrop’s second principle. According to Florian (1999), the first mathematical model of network equilibrium was formulated-by Beckmann, McGuire and Winsten in 1956. Their contribution Florian added was the staiting point for intense research and the application of this route choice model. The integration of network equilibrium models in the field of transportation planning began in the 1970s and became more common as the algorithms used to solve various model variations were embedded in user-friendly software packages. Urban and regional planners could then attain easy access 10 these models without the need to have extensive mathematical programming background. One of such software package is EMME/2, which is used by more than 700 organizations in countries of five continents. it was Wardrop, nearly half a century ago, who provided this theoretical core of modern transport modeling practice in suggesting that drivers choose among alternative routes for the same Journey by picking that route which consumes the minimum journey time. If too many choose the’ most direct route, it becomes congested and less attractive. There is, then, an incentive for drivers to use an initially rejected longer route. Adjustments continue until equilibrium is reached when no individual can make a further improvement as a result of any individual choice. When this obtains, all routes used between any origin and destination have the same journey time, any other possible route being slower, and not used. Again, Wardrop congested stated in Florian, 1999), that under equilibrium conditions traffic arrange itself i networks in such a way that no individual trip maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes. If all trip makers perceive costs in the same way (no stochastic effects),under equilibrium conditions, traffic arranges itself in congested networks such that all routes between any O-D pair have equal and minimum cost while all unused routes have greater or equal costs. However, it is easy to see that if these conditions did not hold, at least some drivers would be able to reduce their costs by switching to other routes. A case in point in Lagos is the Lagos- ‘Abeokuta Expressway, a situation where most commercial vehicles and private car owners often prefer to divert into Agege arterial road so as to avoid the bottleneck points around lyana-Ipaja, regarded as a strategy of saving cost and time on congested routes in Lagos. Examples abound in metropolitan Lagos. The above theories in relation to the menace of the 2problem of road traffic congestion in an urban setting necessitate a better understanding of the phenomenon as conceptualized in literature. i 2.2.4 Coricept of and Approaches in Road Traffic Congestion Management ‘The key phrase of this work is Road Traffic Congestion, Road Traffic Congestion is ty begin to interfere with other users, due to the imminent when users of a particular fac fimited capacity of the infrastructure (Sadiq, 1999; and Varaiya 2005). Again, traffic congestion on a freeway sets in once the density of vehicles exceeds a certain critical number, which is thé designed capacity of such road. For, the addition of a single car to a road that has already reached its saturation level (ie. designed traffic capacity) will result in “dead- weight”, which is also known as road traffic congestion, Studies have shown that above the dead weight, both vehicle speed and vehicle flow will drop precipitously thereby making travel time between two points on the road in question to become unpredictable. Also, it encourages fluctuating transportation cost, elevates fuel consumption and auto-induced pollutants, ‘This is a daily noticeable phenomenon on Lagos roads. COgunsanya (2002,) conceptualised road traffic congestion as a situation when urban road network could no longer accommodate the volume of traffic using it. This situation is usually caused by rapid growth in motorization with less than corresponding improvements in the road network and related facilities. However, Roth (1999) perceived traffic congestion as a situation whereby too many cars are occupying a small amount of road space. In the same vein, Ortuzar and Wilumsen (1990) stated that one of the most important features of transport supply is traffic congestion. For instance, the higher the number of new road infrastructure supply to ease traffic congestion in an urban setting, the higher the demand for travel by motorists and consequent traffic jams. Goodwin (1997) also used the speed flow relationship theory to conceptualise a congested road traffic scenario. According to Goodwin, traffic flow depends on the numbers of vehicles entering a road and traffic speed. For instance, at low volumes of traffic, when vehicle impedance is zero, high speeds are possible; although this may be constrained only by the capability of the vehicle and legal speed limits. But as the numbers of vehicles entering the road inereases, as the new entrants interact with existing traffic, speed is gradually reduced on the road. ‘Traffic Management Strategy of prioritisation of public transport is, however, recommended by Goodwin as a better way of minimizing traffic congestion, rather than provision of 7 22additional roads, as solution to the problem of road traffic congestion. The reason why this is necessary, Goodwin (1997) stated can be deduced from the fundamental principle of speed- flow curve in transportation field. The curve shows that the more the traffic that uses a road the slower it goes over time. More so, the effects become more and more severe as the traffic flow approaches the maximum capacity of the network, until finally overload is so extreme that all vehjeles are unable to move. Consequently, Goodwin (1997) defines congestion as the impedance which vehicles imposed on each other due to specd-flow relationship. This assertion helps the understanding of the fact that tHe underlying cause of congestion does not result merely from road works or accidents, but from trying to operate when traffic flows are too close to the capacity of the network, ata level when any of these transient incidents will have a disproportionate effect. ‘As more ttaffic enters the road, speed falls; but, up to a point, flow will continue to rise because the effect of additional vehicle number outweighs the reduction in average speed. This is the normal flow situation. At the point where increased traffic volume ceases to offset the reduced speed, the road’s “capacity” is reached at the maximum flow. The absence of perfect traffic flow information systems means that motorists will continue to enter the road beyond the road capacity at a given time, thus causing further drops in speed. As this happens, the type of traffic low that will be experienced is regarded as forced flows. A ross- sectional study of the main urban centres reveals that traffic flows would settle around the zone of instability during rush hour periods; and zone of instability occurs at speeds of about 18 kph. However, the operational efficiency of a road depends actually on a number of factors, such width, the number of lanes etc.) while in the as the physical characteristics of the road short term, factors that determine speed flow according to Button (1982) are: the form of traffic management and contro! schemes in operation (traffic lights, roundabout etc), the type and age of vehicle combined with their distribution. in, Button (1982) stated that faster Meanwhile, analysing the economic costs of conge: travel in urban areas means cheaper travel in terms of generalized costs .But the main cost imposed by traffic congestion on commuters is time cost, whereby commuters spend longer time transiting from one point to another. 23Traffic congestion, according to Wachs (2002), is non-linear, because when the traffic volume doubles or triples on a lightly travelled street the effect on travel times is minimal, whereas adding just a few cars and trucks to @ crowded roadway causes large increase in delay. Therefore, adding or removing only a small fraction of all travellers can make an enormous difference in traffic flow, Consequently, this approach makes traffic eminently subject to management strategies. Although congestion is nonlinear, Wachs added, but people think in linear ways. For instance, congestion on a major bridge traditionally leads to calls for another bridge, even though small adjustments could quite dramatically reduce delay. Moreover, Adams, (2004) figuratively refers to traffic growth, which is a major cause of problem of road traffic congestion in cities, as “800 pound gorilla!” According to Adams, “the 800 pound gorilla, for those who have not met him, is the large beast squatting at the corner of the fashionable cocktail party. Everyone can see him. He makes everyone nervous. He has a voracious appetite and disgusting excretory habits. He smashes furniture and crockery every time he moves. But no one has the nerve to ask him to leave. So everyone withers on distractedly about matters of little consequence, hoping not to antagonize him. He is geriatric; he has been attending transport policymaker's cocktail parties for the 35 years in which I have been observing such events - and he was middle-aged when I first met him ”. However, Mkhize, (2005) identified two prominent types of road traffic congestion, namely recurring and non-recurring congestion. The former result from over saturation of the road capacity by vehicles of various sizes, while the latter is as a result of happenings such as multiple accidents, disabled vehicles, and natural disasters to mention a few. Consequent upon these past studies, road traffic congestion in this study is conceptualized as vehicular impediment to free movement of persons and/or goods from one location to the ty of technical and traffic management other in an urban centre, Nevertheless, among the vari approaches being adopted, as revealed in literature, to minimize the adverse effects of road traffic congestion are the following: 24() Travel Demand Management In an overview of traffic demand management, Tanaboriboon (1997) affirmed that the purpose of demand management is to ensure an equitable supply of transport facilities. The concept amounts to maximizing the transport system's ability to “move people” — as opposed to “moving vehicles”. There are short ~and — long-term demand management strategies. The immediate strategies include: Ride ~ sharing, introduction of efficient school bus system, and improving existing bus services to attract more passengers, However, he added that, demand management strategies can only succeed through efficient and effective mass transit, offered as an alternative to motor vehicle transport. Also, a comprehensive mass-transit rail network is needed for local commuters. Additionally, traffic management concept must optimize the use of the limited road space available, as well as prioritization of enhanced technology such as intelligent highways. Finally, the long-term strategies according to Tanaboriboon (1997) include: finding a way of addressing the institutional and coordination problems among too many agencies responsible for transportation planning and management in an urban environment. Planning toots have been developed for use of transportation planners to work out details of alternatives. and to provide sound advice to decision makers. This is why, travel-demand forecasting! has an important role as a major contributor to the planning tools used in evaluating alternatives. Thus, in urban transportation planning, consideration is given to factors that affect travel in urban areas, among which are population, land use, economic : i : . . activity, transportation system, travel, laws and ordinances, financial resources, and community! values. In addition, the basis for travel demand forecasting is to identify people’s travel behaviour i.e. how many {rips people will make, where they will go, by which mode of transportation, and by which specific route. In summary, transportation plan needs to attend dynamically to the constantly changing area's transportation needs, for an efficient and effective transport system in a given urban environment. (ii) Transportation System Management (TSM) ‘According to Khisty (1999) “planning is done by human beings for human beings”. Planning processes in the case of city and regional planning is future-oriented and op! 25Moreover, ‘transportation planning is @ part of this process. Hence, TSM is summarily defined by Oni (2004) as a technique for solving urban transportation problems, through efficient use of the existing ways, vehicles and terminals available at a point in time. Oni added that itis a scientific approach that ensures the overall best use of the existing urban transport facilities, subject to the constraints of environmental preservation and public acceptability. This “best use”, which may or may not be the maximum use that generates the maximum use or that generates the maximum benefits, includes the imposition upon the citizenry and commuters special rules and regulations governing the use of transport facilities, It may also involve networks improvements, The concept of TSM is cost-effectively considered the appropriate strategy for minimizing road traffic congestion, because it allows for an optimal utilization of the existing roads; thus making provisions for an area's short-range transportation needs. Also important is, its capability to enforce the four basic strategies necessary to inerease the efficiency of a system, namely putting in place actions to ensure the efficient use of existing road space; actions to reduce vehicles use in congested areas, actions to improve transit service; and actions to improve internal management efficiency. As a result Tiwari, (2005) regarded traffic system management as a cost-effective measure to counter road traffic congestion over time and space. Furthermore, traffic management, as explained by Alshuler, Womark and Pucher (1979) is the art of optimizing the use of a fixed network of streets and highways. This plan was highly recognized in the 1970s. Hence, Alshulet, Womark and Pucher (1979) advised against capacity expansion by construction in congested corridors, which was in the fifties the acclaimed technical strategy for curbing road traffic congestion in United States of America. 1g to Alshuler, Womark The three distinct separate purposes of traffic management, accor‘ ‘and Pucher, are (1) maximization of vehicle-carrying capacity, (2) the maximization of people-carrying capacity, and (3) the promotion of amenity and safety by assigning some road way space predominantly or exclusively for pedestrian use, But, until recently according to Alshulee, Womark and Pucher (1979), virtually all traffic engineers have viewed their main task a maximization of vehicle-carrying capacity on any given road. 26