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    tourism is one of the sectors of the economy that is most dependet on climate change

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    Climate Change and Tourism in English-Language Newspaper Publications

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    martinbrindis
    tourism is one of the sectors of the economy that is most dependet on climate change

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Empirical Research Article Climate Change and Tourism in English-Language Newspaper Publications Jour Tv Reva ‘em va Son) 3c8 he ery 2018 rorlsngbcontome (SAGE Abstract ‘Tourism is one of the sectors of the economy that is most dependent on climate, creating multiple vulnerabilities and new opportunities arising with changing climate. Even though the links between tourism and climate have been well researched, this scientific knowledge has not percolated into policies and the abiliy to act. This disconnect between scientific knowledge and practices is frequently blamed on inadequate climate change communication to the public in mass media. We studied the mass media framing of climate change and tourism by analyzing English newspaper publications worldwide over the past 30 years. The paper presents a Big Data analysis ofthe content, geographical patterns, and temporal changes in newspapers’ publications on climate change and tourism. Keywords climate change, tourism, machine learning, content analysis, mass medi, big data Introduction Climate change is arguably one ofthe most important chal- lenges facing humanity, as seen by policymakers (United ‘Nations 2016) und the public (Pew Research Center 2017) worldwide, Among multiple sectors ofthe economy linked to climate change, the tourism industry is believed tobe one of the most vulnerable because of its exposure to multiple direct and indirect impacts of climate change, affecting tou ism destinations, and tourist activities and behaviors (Hall etal, 2014), A major direct impact contributing tothe high vulnerability ofthe tourism sector to climate change is the acute dependence of destinations on climate-elated factors such as temperature, sun, and snow cover. Less obvious are the indirect impacts of climate change, such as increasing {demand for space conditioning in summer destinations (Isaac and van Vuuren 2008). Meanwhile, tourism is also an impor- tant driver of climate change, contributing 8% of greenhouse 1285 (GHG) emissions (Lenzen etal. 2018). The interaction between climate change and tourism is a topic that has been well recognized by both industry and policy makers (UNWTO 2010, 2008), as well asthe academic community (Scott, Hall, and Gossling 2016; Scott, Gossing, and Hall 2012; Becken 2013; Becken and Hay 2012). Tourism under Climate Change ‘The impacts of elimate change on tourism oceurs in diverse channels (Simpson etal. 2008), ranging from direct impacts such as estimated higher temperature (e.., Hein, Metzg and Moreno 2009; Maddison 2001), sea level rise (e.. Jones and Phillips 2015; Haer et al. 2013), to indirectly transforming the natural resources on which tourist destina tions rely, such as reduced snow cover and snow seasons (eg, Elsasser and Birki 2002; Koenig and Abegg 1997; Pickering 2011), coral reef bleaching (e.g., Uyatra etal 2005; Hughes 2003; A. Piggott-McKellar 2015), loss of bio- diversity (Thomas et al. 2004), increasing risks of wildfires (Moritz et al. 2012), coastal erosion (Zhang, Douglas, and Leatherman 2004), and others. These impacts are observed to be spatially heterogeneous, bringing threats toa destina tion while resulting in opportunities for another. For instance, ineeasing summer temperature and elevating risks ‘of heat waves threaten Mediterranean tourism (Perry 2006; Amelung, Nicholls, and Viner 2007), while the poleward shifts of comfortable temperatures during the summer holi- day season are conducive to bringing more visitors to Northwest Europe and midlatitude areas in North America (Withanks eal. 2007; Amelung, Nicholls, and Viner 2007) “The booming Aretc cruise industry isan iconic example of 1 new opportunity to bring tourists to previously inaccessi- ble destinations (Lemelin et al. 2010; Wilson et al. 2014; [ijgclaar, Thaper, and Peeters 2010) owing to the “Arctic amplification” phenomenon (Screen and Simmonds 2010) "Deparment of Tourn, Recretion & Spore Management Cage of Heal nd Haran Peformance, Uniwersty of lor Games, FL Usk Corresponding Author: ‘Sinan (Ds) Ma Depron of Tour, Recreation & Spore anagemne Cogs of Health and Hur Perfomance, Uoersty of Usk Ena vides ‘Ma and Kilenko 353 Another counterintuitive opportunity is that the destructive ‘transformation of natural landscapes is able to bring demand ‘rom tourists wanting to see the disappearing natural attrac tions, which is known as “last chance tourism” (Lemelin tal, 2010; A. E, Piggott-MeKellar and MeNamara 2016). Reciprocaly, climate change adaptation and mitigation in fourism sector is essential and self-interest (UNWTO 2008; Gassing ctal. 2010), given that itis a major driver of climate change, contributing to approximately 8% of the total GHG emissions (Lenzen et al, 2018). Mitigation options, espe- cially the carbon management in aviation sector, have boon ‘generated (Gissling et a. 2010; Dickinson et al. 2013), and. ‘multilevel policies, ffom international to local, have been ‘made and reinforced (Scot, de Freitas, and Matzarakis 2009; UNWTO 2008), Knowledge Gaps on Climate Change and Tourism Among the substantial body of seienifie literature invest- gating climate change and tourism, research has mainly focused on the potential impacts of climate change on tou ism, yet the response of the tourism industry to climate change is relatively lack of serutiny (Michailidew, ‘Vlachokostas, and Moussiopoulos 2016). Its reassuring that there isan increasing trend of discussion on mitigation and, adaptation practices inthe tourism industry inthe late decade, fexpecially in alpine skiing (Rutty et al. 2017; Haan, Juhola, and Landauer 2015; Trawiger 2014; Seott and MeBoyle 2007; Damm, Kaberl and Prettenthaler 2014) and aviation sector (J, Higham et al. 2016; J. E. S. Higham, Cohen, and Cavaliere 2014). Ski operators have raised awareness of climate change as 8 global phenomenon, yet ‘not perceived it as areal threat to their business, nor a prior ity intheirrisk management, which might be partially due to the wide implementation of artificial snowmaking to copy ‘with uncertain snowfalls (TrawOger 2014). However, such technical adaptation is not elimate-induced, and mitigation practices are barely observed, In aviation industry, a “Flyers Dilemma” posits that despite a variety of measures attemp- ing to reduce aviation carbon emissions, ranging from gow cemmental regulations to market-based incentives to “green ‘romotions (Sterner 2007; Friman, Lathult, and Garling 2013), air travelers tend to have embedded travel behavion= ‘ith reluctance to change. Thus, a major “implementation ‘gap" remains and the carbon mitigation practices ate far from effective (Banister and Hickman 2013). In genera, ther i stil a lack of evidence in adaptation and mitigation efficacy; moreover, an unwillingness or even skepticism remains among tourism industry operators (Scot de Freitas, and Matzarakis 2009; Saarinen and Tervo 2006; Michailidow, ‘Vlachokostas, and Moussiopoulos 2016). In tourism, one ‘exemption could be the alpine skiing industry, where some authors have found high awareness of change and willing ess to exercise adaptation strategies; however, even then the stakeholders exhibited a mistrust forthe information they get (Matasci etal. 2014). Another knowledge gap is related to the response of tout- jsm demand to climate change. Two examples of such a response, Arctic eruises and last chance tourism, were men= tioned in the previous section as emerging opportunities for the market. Shift of tourist flow may take place when climate advantages and resource attractions interchange among des- tination options (Kober), Pretenthaler, and Bird 2016), but the changes in tourist preferences, perceptions, motivation, snd potential reactions in response to pressures rom climate change require further research (Scott, Gissling, and De Freitas 2008; Géssling eta 2012). Finally, existing studies of climate change impacts on tourism have mainly focused om few hotspots, including ‘© The Mediterranean, where warmer temperatures, threaten summer holiday tourism (Hein, Metzger, and Moreno 2009; Maddison 2001; Koenig and Abexe 1997; Pemy 2006), Australia tourism, which is threatened by coral reef bleaching (Uyarra et al. 2005; Hughes 2003; A. E. Piggott-MeKellar and MeNamara 2016; A. Piggott- MeKellar 2015); # Europe ski resort tourism, which is affected by decreasing snow caver and shrinking cold season (Elsasser and Birki 2002; Pickering 2011; Koenig and Abegg 1997); ‘© Small island destinations, which are threatened by sea level rise (Becken, Hay, and Espiner 2011; Sovacoal 2012; Seott, Simpson, and Sim 2012); and ‘+ Aretie tourism, which exhibits emerging opportuni- tics as a result of improving accessibility (Avango, Nilsson, and Roberts 2013; Dawson et al. 2016; Davsson et al. 2010; Wilson et al, 2014; Eijgelsar, ‘Thaper, and Pecters 2010) “The majority ofthese destinations have been researched. from the Global North perspective, While climate change is equally affecting tourism industries in friea, South America, and large parts of Asia (Scott and Becken 2010), these regional voices are largely missing from scientifie literature. Despite the lately emerging studies in Global South (ee, low-cathon tourism discussion in China [Huang and Deng 2011; Xiong 2017), we notice that both tourists (e., Dillimono and Dickinson 2015) and tourism operators (2. ‘Tapsuwan and Rongrongmuang 2015) from these regions are more likely to misconceive the impact of climate change on tourism, and their adaptive capacity and mitigation practices ate more limited (Hoogendoor and Fitchett 2018), ‘Mass Media on Climate Change Despite existing knowledge gaps between climate change and tourism inteaetions, there is significant amount of 354 Journal of Trove Research 59(2) scholarship on the subject; however, this scholarship has not yet been translated into full willingness to act onthe part of tourism providers and holiday makers. Overall, climate change is being famously deseribed as a “super-wicked problem” (Lazarus 2009): first, the complex interconnectiv- ity ofthe climate system, environment, and economics and uncertainty in related risks makes climate change hard to understand for lay person; second, incomplete information and conflicting interests make solution hard to achieve. In this respect, a considerable body of scientific research is ealing with the role of mast media in bridging the gap between the science and the public. Nevertheless, multiple examples point atthe failures of mass media to properly ‘communicate climate change to the publi, These failures ‘may result from honest errors in understanding of complex subjects (Bell 1994); contradictions between the bes report- ing practices of requiring equal representation ofboth sides cof a conflict, leading the journalists to seck opinions outside the scientific mainstream (Boykof¥ and BoykotT 2004); dif= ficulties in handling uncertainties (Painter 2013); and oth- cers. Overall, however, the researchers agroe that mass media plays an enormous role in disseminating climate change information to public (Schmidt, Ivanova, and Schifer 2013; Storch 2009; Weingart, Engels, and Pansegrau 2000), mak- ing it one of the most reported scientifie areas (Taddicken, Reif, and Hoppe 2018) ‘One ofthe most powerful and effective impacts of media is in “telling its readers what to think about” (Cohen 1963, . 13), later reformulated in the agenda-setting theory (MeComb and Shaw 1972). Mass media determines the importance of issues perceived by the public through repeated news coverage (Severin and Tankard 2001, p. 219); with @ complex issue such as climate change, public atten- tion and understanding are more likely to be influenced by ‘mass media (Liu, Lindquist, and Vedltz 011). Additionally, ough framing (or “second onder” agenda setting), media, 'seleet some aspects of reality and make them more salient ina communicating text in such a way a8 to promote & pat- ticular problem definition” (Entman 1993). Therefore, pub- lic perception, atiude and reaction willingness to cope with the problem issues are greatly shaped and guided by mass media (Bolsen and Shapiro 2018). "Mass media representations of climate change have been thoroughly studied in multiple publications (Kirilenko and Stepchenkova 2012; Billett 2010; Boykoff and Boykoft 2004; Bord, Morgan, and O°Connor 1998; Krosnick, Holbrook, and Visser 2000; Schmidt, Ivanova, and Schafer 2013; Schifer, anova, and Schmidt 2014; Boykof? and Boykoff 2007). Ibis widely believed that mass media plays 8 bridging role between science and public on climate change agendas, and effective communication from scien- {ists and policy makers tthe public increases public aware- ness of the issue (Kaksde, Hiremath, and Raut 2013) Meanwhile, frames of media on coverage of climate change are significant, especially in the controversial topies about the scientific consensus/debate on human-caused climate ‘change, positivelvain response efficacy, positive negative ‘economic eonsequence of climate change, ete. (Bolsen and Shapiro 2018; Feldman, Hart, and Milosevic 2017), Study Objective Despite significant scholarship on elimate change disews- sion in mass media, tourism representations have not been researched, with the exception of a single stady (Gémex- Martin, Armesto-Lopez, and Amelung 2016) that analyzed Spanish press and found that tourism was framed as having marginal importance. Hence, the goal of this study isto pro- vide a systematic account of elimate change and tourism rep- fesentation in English-language newspapers worldwide. This ‘Boal includes the following research question: Does mass media fully communicate the Key points of scientific discourse on climate change and tourism or are ‘there significant gaps in presentation of scientific knowl- edge to the public? ‘The rest of ths antcle has the following structure. First it ‘explores the geographical and temporal distribution of the publication andscape. Then it applies an automated content analysis to retrieve the main mass media topics. Then, it ‘examines the composition of the discussion topies in differ- ‘ent countries, providing both a global and a local perspective ‘on climate change and tourism. Finally, the article analyzes the gaps discovered in reporting Method Data Collection ‘The data were collected through LexisNexis Academic data- base (www lexisnexis.com). LexisNexis provides access to {ul-text articles published in 2,735 English-language news- papers worldwide, Every LexisNexis article is tagged with a series of SUBJECT indices, providing a transparent way of retrieving relevant publications. A search for subjects (CLIMATE CHANGE) or (GLOBAL WARMING) and (TOURISM) or (DESTINATION)) was conihicted for 9 30-year period, starting from January 1987 until October 2016, and yielded 10,307 articles. Removal of duplicates and near-duplicates (article corrections, updates, and articles published in different editions) reduced the sample size to 9,732 articles (for metadata, see Table 1) Selection of Highly Relevant Publications Manual inspection into a sample of publications indicated that many of the acquired articles were centered on either ‘Ma and Kilenko 355 ‘Table 1. An Example of a Newspaper Article Retrieved frm the LexisNexis Academe Database (Abridged), Fels Value Newspaper “The Soutlond Tes (New Zealand) Date (Cetober 25,2012, Thursday Length 473 words Headline Si industry OK in hotter eimae Body [A threeyear climate change study ofthe Southern Lakes predicts les snow, warmer temperatures, more ‘ain and more wind by 2040 Subject ‘king (91%, sing fans (90%), climate change (90%), climatology (90%), ee Geographic location [New Zealand (93%), Australia (93%), Australia and New Zealand (92%) climate change or tourism, while providing only a cursory Data Transformation mention ofthe othe pet. Such publications Wer 1 Dy. cd ale were masformed int a binary (01) filtered out since the primary interest of this study was an «exploration of both topics and their interaction, One approach to pinpoint the targeted publications is to add additional search terms (such a “hotel”) in the frst place, which was the very approach we initially undertook. However, we found that it imposed our views on what search words should be in the “tourism” articles as opposed to learning these words from the articles themselves, thus introducing a bias. We therefore opted fr the most inclusive set of the search words ‘with postprocessing. Such postprocessing by manual filter ing was impractical because ofthe large database size, and a ‘machine learning algorithm was used to select the publica- tions likely tobe relevant, First, a random sample of 323 collected articles was carefully examined by two independent investigators for its relevancy o both climate change and tourism and classified imo “relevant” or “not relevant” classes. These articles ‘were subsequently used to train @ support vector machine (SVM) classifier. SVM is one of the most widely used elas sification algorithms, a geometric approach to find the best linear separation between one category and another. Here a series of #0 SUBJECT were used as vector features in tran. ing the SVM model, and these SUBJECT were selected based the ranking of Information Gain of each SUBJECT in the whole data pool (for more method details, se Kirilenko tal, 2017). Finally, the trained SVM classifier was applied to the newspaper database to select the publications likely to be relevant. Examples with probability more than $0% were marked as “relevant.” The classifir's performance ‘was validated with the following result: recall-0.738, pre- cision=0.801, accuracy=0.775, F1=0.768. Using the beneh- ‘mark accuracy of 70% to 80%, the elasifier’s performance ‘was accepted as satisfactory. Veracity test is also conducted to compare the agreement between automated classification and human coders. Donkor (2014) suggested that the acceptable “realistic” agreement accuracy may vary ‘between 0.70 and 0.79, which in our ease turned out 19 be approximately 0.81, indicating rather reasonable and acceptable. The filtered sample contained 1,334 articles published in 240 newspapers worldwide, temm-document matrix with the rows representing the arti- cles, the columns representing the words, and the values rep- resenting the presence or absence of a particular word in 8 particular article. Tha is, if the word “hotel” has an ID 120 Jinan overall list ofall words in all articles, and the article \with ID 70 contains this word, then the term-document ‘mateix will contain | inthe correspondent postion at column 120 and row 70. The process employed standard text analysis, steps using a customized Python seript and the data-mining application Rapid Miner (rapidminercom): # Alist of all words was extracted (24.446 words in total); * Synonyms were replaced (eg, the words “US.” US.” “USA.” and “United States” were replaced with “USA’ Short words (less than three characters) were removed: ‘© Stop words (the most frequent words of English lan- ‘gus such 38 a,” “the,” and at”) and generie words (Cday.” “people,” “good,” ec.) were removed: ‘+The words were reduced to their stems using Porter stemmer (Porter 1980}; + mgrams were generated to add the most frequent ‘word combinations (e.g, “great barrier ree.” “sea level," “greenhouse gas emission”); ‘+ Infrequent words (those inthe lowest 10th percentile of frequency distribution) and extremely frequent ‘words “tourism,” “climate,” ee.) were removed, ‘The process resulted in a list of the 209 most frequent tokens (word stems and their n-gram). Thus, the article sam- ple was transformed into a 1,334 articles) X 200 (keywords) binary term-document matrix. Exploratory Factor Analysis The main topies of the newspaper publications were obtained using a common procedure of uncovering latent semantic structures in a set of documents (latent topics) 356 Journal of Trove Research 59(2) 30 Artctesimonth 1987 1996, 0 80 0 o 2 eee 2001 1995. 1997 1999 2001 2003 1998 2000 2002 2004 2 200s | 2007 2010 2012 2018 2016 Climategate x Figure I. (A) Monthly number of ails on climate change and tourism publshed in newspapers worldwide; (8) Money umber of eter artices on climate change publahed in the New York Times adapted from Kirlenko and Stepchenkowa 2012), based on a hypothesis that similar topics are discussed using a similar set of words (eg, Deerwester etal. 1990) ‘The exploratory factor analysis approach applied in this research (for dtails, sce Kirilenko and Stepchenkova, 2012) uses principal components analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of the term-document matrix, with the goal of obtaining stable, interpretable components. The following guidelines were used for obtaining the solution: (@) the majority of components should contain at Teast three variables (Kline 1994); (b) the cross-loadings should bbe meaningful; (e) the solution should be robust. A solu- sion with @ smaller or larger number of variables should not change the main factors ‘The final 15-factor solution explaining 46.11% of the variance had the following characteristics # Kaiser Meyer-Otkin measure = 0,83, exceeding the guideline ofa “good” value of 0.6 (Brace, Kemp, and Snelgar 2003); # Bartlet’s test of sphericity is highly significant (p<0.001); + Cronbach's alpha >0.6 for the fist 12 components, indicating acceptable reliability of test score, and 05 forthe remaining components. Results Publications over Time Dynamics of mass media interest in climate change and tour- ism in terms ofthe number of publications can be separated into three periods (Figure 1). Prior to 2005, interest in the topic was extremely limited, with overall 240 articles inthis 19-year period (18% ofthe sample, even though the petiod ‘constituted 63% ofthe total study perio). During the second petiod of 2006-2008, interest in climate change and tourism skyracketed, peaking at 200 articles in 2007. Finally, during, the thitd period (2009-2016), the number of publications ‘decreased, yet remained stable, at approximately 80 aticles, annually. \ noticeable increase in the interest in the topic ‘appeared in mid-2016, This rend seems to generally trailing ‘the overall change in the interest to climate change as pre- sented in Figure 1B representing the number of climate ‘change articles inthe New Yark Times, which i adopted from Kirilenko and Stepchenkova (2012). The most prominent ‘events such as adoption of the Kyoto Protocol (1995), pre= sentation of the Fourth [PCC Climate Change assessment (2007), and Nobel Peace Prize awarded for climate change research (2007) are clearly represented in both timelines, while more specific events such as the Climategate were ‘Ma and Kilenko 357 “Table 2. Number of Articles in Countries. Table 2. Disributon ofthe Number of Aries on Chste CChange and Tourism among the Top 10 Newspapers: Coune and County Newspapers Aries Percenage AF Pereanag ofthe Tol Number of Clected ableton United Kingiom 77328083 Nawapaper Pubised Country Count Pere ‘Australia, 59 70 oy 19 = ah ieee United Ses 10 oat The Gurdon United Kingdom ——40—~—=300 Canada Rn 1% 7 129 Thelndependent United Kingdom 32240 eta 2 a Sg TheGaer Mal Ausra oo South Aria 6 55 4273 West Morng News Unted Kingdom = 30.225 New Zesland ° 2 3 O71 TeDoyTeegoph United Kingiom 25817 Shey Moring Herold Ausra n 16 The Gobe and Moi Canada a es deaing only with specific scientific or pttieltopics that The Age Anca 2 ae unrelated to tourism Te Comms Pot = Aveoala ia The Hera United Kingdom 19 La The New Yo Ties Unted Sates” 19142 Geographical Distribution of the Articles’ Origins ‘We use article origin a a prony fora relative imerest in the topic in mass media. However, the raw number of publica tions (Table 2) is misleading because ofthe variations inthe ‘number of newspapers in different countries and the number of articles per newspaper. Therefore, the numiber of articles {nthe collected sample was normalized by dividing the arti cle number from a country by the total number of articles published in the same country inthe same outlets, To esti- ‘mate the latter value, we performed a separate LexisNexis search for a neutral word likely to be encountered in any anicle (of), The normalized value (the last column of ‘Table 2) represents the adjusted frequency of climate change publications in a country: values greater than 1 represent above-average interests in the topic “The highest raw number of newspaper articles on climate change and tourism (374 articles) was published in the United Kingdom, followed by Australia (320 anicles). Note that when the differences in overall newspaper activity in these countries are accounted for, Australian newspapers (AF=199) are much more interested in the topic than the UK ‘ones (AF=0.92). Another country witha very high interest in the topic is Canada (AF=I.23), The newspapers of these three countries are also present in the top outlets (Table 3), including the Guardian (UK, 40 articles), the Tndependent (OK, 32 articles), and the Courier Mail (Australia, 31 arti- cles). Despite a relatively high number of articles published in the United States (140), its normalized numberof publica tions is very low (AF=0.t1), and the most frequently pub- lishing outlet, the New York Times (19 articles), is ranked loth in Table 3. On the other end of the spectrum, South Arica has a smaller number of articles (55); while the nor- ‘malized number (AF=2.73) demonstrates a high interest in climate change and tourism. ‘Main Topics of Discussion on Climate Change ‘and Tourism ‘The topics of climate change and tourism discussion extracted from the collected articles were interpreted based ‘on the variables loaded onto specific factor (Table 4), For example, there are 10 variables (words and word combina- tions) loaded onto the first factor: Great Barrier Recf: Reef; Bleach; Coral; Coral Bleaching; Queensland; Marine Park; Australia; Coral Reef; and Marine. Subsequently, the factor was interpreted as a “coral reef bleaching” theme. A. {quotation from an article with the highest factor score con- tributing to the topic states is, “the Great Barrier Reef will Tose most of its coral cover by the middle of this century inflicting up to 8 billion in damage on Australia's tourism and fishing industries within 16 years according toa study on the biological economic and social effects of climate change on the reef.” ‘Thus, the content analysis resulted in the following 15 discussion topics Topic I: Coral ref bleaching. Coral ee bleaching induced by sea temperature rise and changes in sea water alkalinity is 2 severe threat to costal destinations worldwide. The Great Barrier Reef, one of the world most popular attractions in Queensland, Australia, is in the spotlight and has attracted ‘massive attention from global news reports. Topic 2:Ski and winter tourism, Climate change is expected to contribute fo warmer winters, reduced snowfall, and shorter snow seasons, consequently significantly influencing the profits of ski destinations and winter tourism industries. The Alps is one of the ski destinations under severe stress. Topic 3: Glaciers melting. Global warming accelerates the melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps and thus trans- forms some once-inaccessible places into toutst hot spots, such as Greenland and areas in the Arctic. This also creates new “last chance” tourism destinations, Topic 4: Ecosystem and biodiversity, Climate change has a tre- rmendous impact on the ecosystem and consequently on Wildlife habitation and biodiversity 358 Journal of Trove Research 59(2) Table 4. Discourse Topics Retrieved from Factor Analysis No. Factor (Topic) Varable Load Aree Excerpt Fl Cont “Great Barrier Reet 0631 “the great barrier reef wil lose most ofits coral cover bythe mide of tis century bleaching Reet ‘0816. infcting upto 8 billion in damage on Australas tourism and fshing industries within Bleach (0699 I6 years according to 2 study the study ofthe biological economic and social elec Coral (0697 _ofclmace chang on che ret” Coral bleaching 0690. —Febroary 2004, The Age Australia Queensland 0.684 Marine park = 0.632 Ara 0574 Marine O54 FD Skiand wineer Ski (0838. “new study on climate change revels blenk outlook for US towns that rely on tourism Ski resore (771 winter turism: Shorter winters equal ewer skiers onthe slopes, which uals Snow (0.726 fewer peope patronizing he restaurants hotel grocery stores and other businesses Sher (0721 that depend on a sendy stream of vistors each ski season” Snow (0679 —December 2012 The Whitefsh Pe, USA Sk searon 0647 ‘Ape os Siope 0.620 Resort 0571 Winer 0450 Mounein ony FS Ghelers Glacier (0.723. “Greenland snot dhe only travel destination experiencing the mixed blessings of melon Mele ‘0664 climate change. Warmer temperatures and meling ie have begun to eransform Glacier meking 0485 some once inaccessible places into tourist hotspots while alo threatening the very arate (0868 features tht are stracting thove vistrs” Greenland (0526 —December 2007, The New York Tines, USA Polar ons F4 Ecosystom Species (0623. “the meng of Mount Kilimanjaro glacier i the mos apparene impact of imate and Habit (0581 change and is consequent los of biodiversity aeross Aiea. In ths ease, f Bodversiy Wildlife (0579 Tartana loses its authenueey sa result ofthe loss of biodiversity, likely to lose Animal (0554 revenue from the tourism industry, che second largest economic Sector to bring ron (0524 foreign exchange n che coun” Blodwersy (0318 November 2011, The Czen, Tarzana, Ecosystem 0452 Nation park 415 FS Comal Erosion (0631, “erosion and flooding costs for five coastal Calforna communis, Venice beach for erosion Beach (0580 example could lore #40 milion in tourist dollars by 2100 f sea level were to rie Coast (0567 bythe middling projection of 46 fst. The same conditions could run up some 540 Sealevel rise 0549 milion in erosion damage ac San Francisco ocean.” sind (0547 —Sepeember 2011, Oronge County Register, USA Storm 0492 sea aes F& —Coralreef Shark (0631, “the impact of global warming and climate chang, destructive recreasonal actvy even Dive (0608 and napproprace infrastructure development In ths regard, Ie becomes essential tourism Snorkel (0562 to monitor the condtion of the oceans, the changing marine vironment and the Fh (0497 subsequent impact on marine species.” Whale (0.478 —March 2009, The Heral, South ica FT Summer Mediterranean 0692. “Wales nd the south wert of England wil warm upto temperatures we would now hesewave Spain (0645. assocare wth Span and the south of France, but the continent cou then become Heatwave (0562 _uncomforably hot for Britsh holidaymakers, leaving them to enjoy the sunshine Hotday (0528 desert home... the Mediterranean vil soon be toe hot for summer tourism, Fre (0483 Greece fad 3 estrave in 2002 and there were forest fires in southern France and Daa (0400 is year has already beon unusually warm and dy.” Summer (0376 —IUly 2003, The Westem Mai, Uniced Kingdom (continued) ‘Ma and Kilenko 359 Table 4. (continued) No. Factor (Topic) Variable Load Article Excerpt FB Seon Werer 0732 “the report predicts dat higher average annual temperatures with wetter winters and weather Drier (0703. drier summers a wel as higher sa levels wll occur over the next ceneury with the pattem Warmer 612 most pronounced impact an coast inthe South and east, such charges in weather ange Winer 0522 _ patterns could res in reduced water quality and levels, which may have a profound pial sot Impact on marine fe and cansequendy on tourist.” waa Gap) — October 2009, sh Examiner, retind £9 Clean energy Solar 10705. “Swizerland's mountain vilges have begun to tout their green credential to woo Power 0.646 climate conc victors ta the pe The si rece of roc et winter Began £0 ‘Glan energy 0627 offset the carbon emissions of guests who tll he tours office how they reached Beceriiy, 1571 theresore where they sayed and what acts they took pare in Arosa is we 13533 supporting lean energy projects in Germany” : Geng October 2007 Tims Calon, Canada Fo GHG Emission (700. “Tourism industries run directly counter to the deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions femssion GHG emission 0498 _ that are required to tackle lbal warming questoning, Reducing air ravel should eduction Greenhouse gas 0664 80 be on everyone's personal acon checklist to help with the cimate challenge.” Reduction GHG 0532 —February 2006, Canberra Tines, Australia| Polar cruises Cruise (0673. “eruise ships burn desl and are often not very fue-efclent so companies need to Ship (0657 address tis Antarctic cruising used to be an elite pastime but now deals are being ‘Ancarcte 0546 sold ie and a bargain pices” ar (2499 —October 2007 Travel Week, United Kingdom Polar 0454 Arce 0355, FI2 Airtravel Airport 0718 “with ar ravl the fastest growing source ofthe gases that are causing imate ‘vation (0708 change passengers could also be hit by EU plans to force airlines to py forthe cost, Air eave 626 ofthe polation they causa” Passenger ‘574 —January 2007, Westem Daly Press, Unted Kingdom FI3 and Indian sea (2739. “the republic of Maldive isan sand nation in dhe Indian ocean. alo the lowest Asappearog. Maldives 0.732 ying avon inthe world with an average ground level of 15 meters above the sea Island mason 0429 -_‘Rising seas caused by che melting polar ice caps means the islands could soon be Sealevelrse 0352 _ swallowed up the low ground level means they might end up under wacer within the exe 50 years” January 2011, The Mirer,Uniced Kingdom FIA Teeting our Trl (1638. “paler rlted ours onthe west coast dec conerbucs a ss 100 millon 3 Teek {2626 year 0 local econamioe, but now at Fox the river ha changed course, citing he Hike 01599 al up and Fran Jon lxt king acces in 2012, share’ no dou ha the a Guas9__ rere has been cured by climate change” Mounain i5e1 —Snvary 2015, Tornot Day News, New Zesland FIS Scetite University 01755 “Protssor Danie! Scot, Canada research car in lbal change and turism athe resarch Profesor 01662. Untersty of Waterioo sys the bigest calenges energy Use, may Fears ae Rewarch {616 now powering therasves th local renewable energy pects” ee 1437, —hutry 2010, The Gb ond Mal Canada Topic 5: Coastal erosion. Sea level rise, combined with an increasing occurrence of high storm surges and flooding, contributes to the accelerated erosion of coasts and beaches, Topic 8 Coral reef-driven turism, Coral reefdriven activi- ties such as diving, snorkeling, and fish watching ae influ ‘enced by coral reef bleaching and warmer waters, Topic 7. Summer heatwave. More frequent summer heat- waves, coupled with increasing risks of forest fires and «droughts, affect traditional sunshine and beach holiday dest nations such asthe Mediterranean, Topic 8 Seasonal weather pattern changes. Changes in weather pattems profoundly influence various aspeets of natural resources and ecosystems, consequently affecting tourist destination decisions and the tourism industry. Topic 9. Clean energy. Clean energy is widely discussed as an option to mitigate climate change; combined with increas- ing tourist’ interest in green travel, this has driven te tout- {sm industry toward a wider use of alternative energy. Topic 10. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. The tourism industry has multiple ways of reducing its carbon 360 Journal of Trove Research 59(2) set swam weather may pode anger wurst Sesion se nd encourage mere pope ake ht oly nthe _— Uk s Medeanean aor become ao bo." (Westen ‘so Moming Nw, 1998) vant Leela |) ut sho minimize the imps of van sow. he tevin flrs fo rece ts cob lb wml ee arming. aera chology i iprovns aos = tetaking messes to minimize esis." (Tae = = the pret re eis ner incresing tres wih uth warning amas coral leaching eve sto Seu (Wisin Tene 2016), the lasts years 2500 from 700 pimsiy ‘lita he ae" (New York Tes, 2012). fuel ours eonomy binging 19 bon in tourism sae proton fad was created guard spins col tom damages eel and eo ‘on resto: rjc nce beh epee ond ‘inenance oll hes joie a seal "(US Oia News, 2014), par bears and ies may bons forthe linate change but they ae ao sling he si of Nuva teu ny around uber ofr ships py ing Cana’ enter acc Us suman” (Edenton Sota, 208) the ney popula destination might suis yo, tet ay the effet oF changing cli ca ie te geseally gin a ete dering of the reins Ungue weather patems "The Guelph Meter. 201) Figure 2. Lefetope preferences inthe top four counts publish States, and Canada), Right: example quotations from the top topics, footprint; the carbon management of long-haul si travel is the most frequently mentioned in this respect. Topic 1. Polar cruises. With melting Arctic polar caps, cruises can reach previously inaccessible areas, becoming, popular mass tourism markets. Meanwhile, carbon emissions and other environmental impacts of eruise ships introduce Topic 12. ir travel. Long haul ar travel is a significant radi- ative forcing and hence one of the most important compo- ‘ents of tourism-related drives of elimate change. ing on climate change and toursm (United Kingdom, Austral, United Topic 13, Islands disappearing, Small islands with low ‘ground levels are under threat of dissppearing because of sea level rise Topic 14. Trekking tours. Alpine hiking and tekking are indirectly influenced by climate change. On the one hand, Tonger warm periods increase summertime mountain trek- king possibilities. On the other hand, forest fires oF thaws may destroy the landscapes" authentic quality, Topic 15. Scientific research. This topic addresses original scientific research reported to the public. ‘Ma and Kilenko 361 Figure 3. Example of ropc preferences in countries with a lower numberof climate change and tourism publiatons Geography of Climate Change and Tourism Publications ‘The geographic differentiation in topics between counties ‘vas estimated using national weighted factor index (NWF) ‘Tis index was eonstructed using the framework suggested in Kirilenko and Stepehenkova (2012) and combined the factor scores of articles that are published in the same country to ‘obtain the NWI} for a factor Fina nation ie >mFe{f} aol me fe >m Here, Sf isa factor score fora factor fof an article i pub- lished in a nation n, and parameter mis the cutoff threshold for the factor scores (m=0 is adopted following Kirilenko and Stepehenkova 2012) To increase the business of this analysis, we only calculated the NWFI for countries with 20, ‘or more publications. The discourse preference ofeach coun- ‘ny is illustrated in Figure 2 There are apparent differences in the main discussion topies between countries. Large. complex tourism destina- tions have wider interests, especially if these countries are also the leaders in climate change discourse in general. The UK news outlets discuss multiple themes, including sum- mer heatwaves and seasonal weather pattern changes, as ‘well as air travel. Summer heatwaves in the Mediterranean have altered the landscape of European tourism market in different ways, for example, reducing the favorability of Spain, Italy, and France, while bringing more tourists to the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Balkan countries, Reports hhave noted that holiday tourists have been adjusting their IVE = summer vacation plans accordingly. The United Kingdom is also the forerunner of elimate change mitigation in the tourism industry. “Air travel” is a high coverage topic in UK newspapers, with discussions centered on GHG emis- sion reduction in aviation, personal responsibility in travel choices, and aviation carbon taxes. ‘Mass media in two North American countries, Canada and the United States, have also reported on multiple topics, yet these wopies are distinct from the UK ones. The main reported issues include scientific research, coastal erosion, and glacier melting. Among these ties, scientific research js undoubtedly much more present in North American media compared to any other country Coastal erosion is a universal problem for the long Atlantic and Pacific shorelines of both counties. The related impacts on barrier islands, beaches, and flood risks have the potential fr catastrophic damage to coastal resorts. Similarly glacier melting i a shared issue in the tourism industry in both the United States and Canada Among other issues, Canadian newspapers are distinct in their discussion of the emerging market of Arctic cruises Finally, the topics related to sustainable tourism are present in the Canadian mass media but largely absent in the United States. Interestingly, a topic pattem similar to Canada was ‘observed inthe Indian press, with the obvious exception of Arctic eruises, In contrast, more specialized tourism destinations have fewer discussion topies. For example, Australian newspapers are largely focused on coral ree bleaching (Figure 3). Reports have mostly expressed concerns about the potential Ioss of tourist markets and its consequent damage 10 the tourism industry and local economy. The newspapers in South Africa concentrate on sustainability and biodiversity (Figure 3) Similarly, New Zealand newspapers are primarily reporting fon GHG emissions and long-haul air travel. In Ireland, news- papers concentrate on coastal erosion discussions. 362 Journal of Trove Research 59(2) Discussion ‘Media Attention Trails Social Activity Agendas in late Change Community It scems that the mass media attention to climate change and tourism i trailing the overall discussion of climate change in mass media (Figure 1), which is evidenced to be highly ‘impacted by social activity agendas in the climate change ‘community, such as intemational climate summits and orga- nizations’ remarkable efforts (Schafer, Ivanova, and Schmidt 2014), Essentially, we found that prior to 2006, tourism issues were almost entirely absent ffom newspapers (Figure 1), Meanwhile, other topics related to climate change had been extensively reported in newspapers starting from 1995 to 1997 (Boykoff 2007; Kirilenko and Stepehenkova 2012; Boykoff and BoykofT 2007). Two high-profile events drove ‘this mass media interest in climate change: the publication of 8 comprehensive report on climate change science and impacts by the IPCC and negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol fon controlling GHG emissions, However, tourism was: largely missing from scientific reviews with high visibility to scientific journalists. For example, in the high-profile IPCC Third assessment report, tourism impacts were barely pres- ent, with a notable exception of the Small Islands chapter (PCC 2001). Consequently, while the reports findings were widely’ discussed in mass media (BoykofT and Boykott 2007), the discussion af turiem was missing (Figure 1A). 1 was only in 2006-2007 that tourism in relation to eli- ‘mate change finally received substantial attention from ‘mass media (Figure 1), so did the media coverage of cli- sate change in general (Figure 1B), mostly in connection with the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR), which was awarded with a Nobel Peace Prize (shared with Al Gore) in late 2007. Notably, tourism obtained much more, substantial coverage in AR4 compared with previous reports (Amelung, Moreno, and Scott 2008). That same year an extensive summary on tourism and climate change ‘was published by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO 2008), ‘After the abovementioned initial spike of interest, the reduced, yet stable, follow-up coverage of climate change and tourism is in line with an overall reduction of mass ‘media attention to elimate change, which was explained by sitferent researchers as resulting from a general frustration ofits actors because ofthe slow political progress a shift in ‘mass media attention toward the Financial eriss, and shrink- ing environmental reporting personnel in newspapers (see Schmid, Ivanova, and Sehifer 2013), Notably, new spikes in. interest in climate change discussion, such as ‘Climategate” (the alleged conspiracy of climate scientists) for a new 2013 IPCC report ARS, didnot mirror similar spikes in the discussion of tourism. It seems that even though tourism in relation to climate change is discussed regulary, its coverage is somehow disconnected from major discussions of the elimate science and policy that drive the ‘general dynamics of climate change discourse. Selective Coverage of Scientific Findings with Limited Spectrum Between the diret, indirect, and induced impacts of climate ‘change, we found evidence of selective discussion ofthe for- rer two topies but not the latter one. For direct impact, newspapers primarily discuss weather extremes, especially summer heatwaves, changes in seasonality, and changes in seasonal weather pattems. Among the indirect impact, four effects are the most frequently mentioned: sea level rise, coral reef bleaching, coastal erosion, and biodiversity degra dation. On the other hand, multiple connections between tourism and climate have not been discussed at any length, which is especially apparent for induced impacts such as increasing risks to water security or higher energy prices. ‘Schmidt, Ivanova, and Schifer (2013) demonstrated that the national newspaper coverage of climate change is high in the countries listed in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol (i.e the countries under obligations to limit their GHG emissions) nd is correlated with the toughness of their Kyoto commit ‘ments. The authors explained this observation with the costs to national economies driving the mass media attention. The ‘authors also observed that in non-Annex B countries, the volume of publications is seemingly higher in countries where te impacts of climate change are projected tobe high. ‘We observed. similar pater inthe volume and topical com- position of climate change and tourism coverage, with the rhumber of the articles apparently being generally higher in ‘countries limiting their GHG emissions (eg., United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand), However, the main topies of diseussion are generally related to the ‘most vulnerable sectors ofthe country’s tourism industry, At the same time, we found litle attention to policies, in con- trast to the observations of Schmidt, Ivanova, and Sehifer (2013) and Kirilenko and Stepehenkova (2012) of climate ‘change in genera ‘Media Framing on Potential Benefits from Climate Change ‘Compared ath screntitic findings, special coverage atten tions and frames of reports can be observed in mass media. First, more market segments have been covered as demand reflection to climate change. Apart from the skiing and avia- tion industry coral ree-driven tourism trekking tourism, and ‘ruse lines also show salience in report. Second, newspapers reveal rich information about tourists holiday choices and ‘emerging tends in the changing market. Noticeable attention has been paid on the unexpected growth of tourism or lterna- tive market opportunites, tha is, potential henefit from cli- mate change, suchas the “last chance” visitingof disappearing ‘Ma and Kilenko 363 estinations, “irs-chance” exploration of the newly accessi- ble landscapes and switching ftom winter to summertime tourism in alpine areas, framing the potential climate change impact in terms of positive economic benefit while negative social, environmental aftermath are seemingly marginalized. ‘One plausible explanation of such media framing may result ‘tom the high volume of “advertising” atiles in publica tions. It isthe job of these articles to atract potential visitors and promote the destinations on behalf of either the travel agencies or local destinations. These advertisements are more Tikely tobe presented in local newspapers, where the tourism business iso essential to local community that it shall be promoted rather than sabotaged even in a case of doomed

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