2021 Climate Risk Country Profile

Chile
Key
High threat
Keep Watch
Positives
 Country Overview
 Coast: 8,000km
 Macro Bio Climates:
 Tropical
 Mediterranean
 Temperate
 Antiborealis
 Summers:
 November-January
 Dry
 Winters
 May-August
 Wet
 Land Occupancy
 29.21%: No vegetation
 38.74%: Grassland/ scrub
 25.55%: Forest
 4.57%: Agriculture
 0.75%: Urban/ Industrial
 Population: 19.1 million (2020)
 Growth Rate: 0.9%
 Location: 89.7% live in Urban areas
 Mainly concentrated in Santiago
 Women and Children are among the highest-risk groups.
 Tribal and Native People are among the highest-risk groups.
  People living below the average national income are among the highest-risk groups.
 Economic Overview
 Economic Cooperation and Development Member
 1 of 3 Latin American Countries (Costa Rica/ Mexico)
 GDP: $252.94 Billion
 Growth Rate: 1.1% in 2019
 2020:
 GDP shrunk by 6.0%
 More than 1 Million Jobs lost
 Fiscal Deficit Rose: 7.5%
 Public Dept rose from 28% (2019)- 33% (2020)
 Poverty increased from 8.1% (20219)- 12% (2020)
 Industry
 Services:
 56.5% of GDP
 68.8% of Employment
 Mining:
 31.4% of GDP
 22.8% of Employment
 Dives GDP Growth
 Agriculture:
 3.9% of GDP
 9.6% of Employment
 30% of the population is economically vulnerable.
 ND-GAIN Index
 Chile: 29/181 (Top 16%)
 Vulnerable to climate change impacts
 Vulnerability: 22/ 181 (Top 12%)
 Readiness: 36/ 181 (Top 19%)
 Highest of other Latin American OECD Members
  Costa Rica Second
 Mexico Third
 Progress Target Areas:
 Improving Water Management/ Sanitation
 Disaster Risk Management
 Climatology
 Atacama Desert (North)
 Most Arid Deserts in the World
 High Risk to Droughts
 Andes Mountains (East)
 Influence precipitation patterns across the country
 Pacific Ocean (West)
 Upwelling
 High Risk to Sea Level Rise
 Antarctic Region (South)
 High Risk to Glacier Melts
 Summer (Nov-Jan): 10c- 12c
 Winters (May-Aug): 72-90mm Precipitation
 Most precipitation
 Primary Influences:
 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
 Antarctic Oscillation (AAO)
 Climatology Key Trends
 Overall:
 Drought from 2008-2015
 Average Deficit of 50%
 Some Regions experience 75%-100%
 North: Warming Trends
 The Atacama Desert is gaining 0.4 km each year during the 20th century
 Center: Warming Trends
  Population Densities
 Northern Andes: Warming Trends
 Reservoirs of water in the form of snow
 Coastal Regions: Cooling
 Sea Level Temp Rising
 Annual Precipitation decreased by 15%-30% in the last century.
 Glaciers Melting
 Changing water runoff patterns
 Representative Concentration Pathways
 Temperature:
 Increase of 1.4c-1.7c by mid-century
 Increase of 3c-3.5c by the end of the century
 Highest Prediction in Central Regions
 Frost days (days below 0c):
 Decrease by 12-42 days (2050)
 Decrease by 37-69 days (2090)
 Summer days (max temp above 25c)
 Increase by 2-27 days (2050)
 Increase by 17-61 days (2090)
 Precipitation:
 Consistent decrease of 1.5mm-9.3mm per month (2050)
 Consistent Decrease of 5.5mm-11mm per month (2090)
  Chile’s central region is expected to experience significantly more significant degrees
of a reduction in precipitation than other regions.
 Mean precipitation is expected to decrease through the end of the century.
 This will impact reservoirs from hydroelectric plants.
 This will lead to the replacement of hydroelectric power with fossil fuels.

 Climate-Related Natural Hazards

 Droughts:
 1965-2019: 4 major droughts
 losses exceeding USD 1,000 Million (individually).
 The most severe case represented 0.77% of the GDP.
 Floods:
 1965-2019: 37 flooding events
 USD 5 Billion in economic losses (collectively)
 The most severe flood represented a loss of USD 2 Billion (0.62% of GDP)
 Most flooding occurs from (April-Sept)
 Flash flooding is a recent development due to temperature changes affecting
snowmelt.
  Coastal areas are vulnerable to flooding due to sea level rise.
 It is estimated that the sea level will rise 0.2-0.3 meters along the coast by the end
of the century.
 Fires:
 The area between Santiago and Puerto Montt is most exposed to fire, with an average
of 3,000-5,000 fires each season.
 2017: Wildfires impacted approximately 1,000,000 of vegetation
 Cold Fronts:
 2011: Impacted 25,000 in vulnerable conditions

 Natural Hazard Key Trends

 Population growth will continue in the Central Region.
 Projected decreases in precipitation levels due to La Niña will expose Chile to prolonged
periods of drought.
 Disaster Risk Management
 Extensive Experience and institutional capacity in disaster risk management (DRM)
 ONEMI coordinates the functioning of the National Civil Protection System at the
national and local levels and the National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (PNRRD)
 Chile’s Strategic Plan:
 Focuses on four pillars:
 Institutional Strengthening
 Strengthening monitoring and early warning systems
 Developing a culture of prevention and resilience building
 Addressing transversal aspects of disaster risk (Including Climate Change)/
Investing in preparedness to achieve and effect response when disasters arrive.
 Disaster Risk Finance:
 Comprehensive Approach to Disaster Risk Management
 It enables the country to understand its contingent liabilities and be prepared ex-ante.
 A tradeoff between cost and Risks to the government
 Climate Change Impact on Agriculture
 Overview:
  Priority
 Valued at 15.6 billion USD in food exports.
 Employs 6.3% of the population.
 Responsible for 73% of water extraction.
 1.1 million hectares to irrigate.
 Drought has led to incentivized private investment in irrigation technology and
advances in water management infrastructure.
 Challenged by the need to manage contaminated water and runoff from
agricultural land.
 Climate change Impacts
 The 2020-2021 rain season impacted 50% of fruit harvests.
 Average daily maximum temperatures in Chile will increase by 2c (2050).
 Projected rainfall seasonally is expected to remain unchanged.
 Increase of 0.06 mm by the end of the century.
 The southern region will become more suitable for agricultural production.
 Move industry south, increasing economic benefits.
 Adv growing season in Chile:
 Grow by 26 days (2040)
 Grow by 54 days (2090)
 Reduced precipitation in coastal areas by 15-30% in the last century
 Increased erosion levels lead to an increased pressure on maintaining soil health.
 Increased heat and water scarcity will lead to crop failures and yield reductions.
 Chile will experience increased average temperatures of 3.5c throughout the year.
 Adaption Options:
 Diversification of crops
 Adoption of innovative agriculture technologies.
 Move population density south if economic trends move farming practices south.
 Coordination between private and public sectors.
 Climate Change Impacts on Water
 Overview
 Abundant water resources
  1,251 rivers
 101 watersheds
 15,000 lakes and ponds
 Annual per capita water availability of 53,000 m^3/year
 Regional variations from 52m^3/year to 2.9 million m^3/ year
 Drought scenarios are becoming the new normal.
 Central Chile has experienced dry years since 2010.
 Mean deficits from 20-40%
 Increased forest fires.
 Impacted electricity prices and increased emissions.
 Less water means less hydroelectric power.
 National water usage in 2010 amounted to 4,710m^2.
 98% access to water
 99% urban (2015)
 87% Rural (2015)
 99% access to sanitation
 99% urban (2015)
 79% urban (2015)
 The economy has shifted towards a water-intensive, export-oriented economy.
 Precipitation and water availability are closely connected to the EL Niño Southern
Oscillation cycle.
 La Niña: Higher Precipitation
 El Niño: Lower Precipitation
 Climate Change Impacts
 Increasing temperatures will be the factor with the highest impact on water levels in
the Andes.
 Especially at an altitude of 30-40 degrees
 It will decrease in intensity from north to south.
 Severe drought likelihood will increase.
 34% mid-century
  63% end of century
 Drought effects will be concentrated in the Northern and Southern regions.
 Precipitation levels in Chile will be -1.42 standard deviations from the historical
mean by 2050.

 Adaption Options
 Water availability is further constrained due to industrial, mining, and agricultural
contamination.
 Water for irrigation currently surpasses reservoir capacity.
 Economic growth could result in an additional 4 million m^3/year.
 Identified risks:
 Increased risk of drought in the central zone
 Decreased risk of frost in the south
 Increased risk of heavy rainfall (higher than 10mm/day)
 Higher risk for traditional agricultural practices
 Changes in hydroelectric power generation capacity.
 Climate Change Impacts on Energy
 Overview
 Dec 2020: Chile’s energy sector has installed a capacity of 26.31 GW/h.
  Heavily relies on thermal generation (52% of installed capacity) (2020)
 Coal 32% (2020)
 Natural gas 8% (2020)
 Diesel 1% (2020)
 Conventional hydrogen 32% (2020)
 Non-conventional Renewable Energy 27% (2020)
 Small run-of-river hydro 3%
 Hydroelectric plants:
 2010-2015: 40% of electricity
 2016-2019: decrease of 24%
 Energy Consumption:
 Mining sector: 43%
 Transport: 33.5%
 Residential: 15.6%
 The National Energy Policy 2050 aims to have 70% of locally produced energy
from renewable sources
 including small hydro (of up to 20 MW)
 Climate Change impacts
 Chile’s Energy Policy 2050 estimates Potential for hydroelectricity generation is
expected to fall by 11% by mid-century and 22% by the end of the century.
 Climate change could reduce generation capacity by the end of the century in the
Maule, Biobio, and Tolten basins by up to 70%.
 Small hydro plants will be impacted.
 Fossil fuels will replace Hydro.
  Adaptation Options
 Chile approved the Energy Efficiency Law with specific emission reduction targets
and has developed a comprehensive strategy involving appliances and end-use energy
efficiency and electromobility.
 Chile has implemented a solar rooftop program.
 Ministry of Energy has launched an ambitious plan to develop green hydrogen.
 Climate Change Impacts on Health
 Overview
 1.85 million people continue to live in rural areas.
 73.2% of the population had public health insurance in 2015.
 Chile spends 8.1% of its GDP on health.
 Respiratory diseases and infections are on the rise due to air pollution.
 Income share:
 20% of the population has 53.6%
 The bottom quintile has 4.8%
 Climate Change Impacts
 Heatwaves:
 Increase by 8% by 2040
 Increase by 20% by 2090
  Changing hydrological structures presents additional challenges for maintaining
access to clean water.

 Adaption Options
 Focus primarily on reducing vulnerability by securing drinking sources during
drought while addressing water quality issues.
 Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Zones
 Overview
 Coastline: 4,200km pacific
 161,338 km^2 of territorial waters
 Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) x5 larger than terrestrial territory
 5 Ecological regions
 Seafood exports: 3.45 billion USD (2016) (1% of GDP)
 Many fisheries are in a vulnerable state due to overfishing.
 1/3 of Chile’s municipalities are in the coastal zone.
 Coastal and environmental policies are weak.
 Pressures:
 Urban Zones
 Infrastructure
 Truism
 Climate Change Impacts
 Coastal erosion is the biggest challenge.
  Negative impacts on:
 Economic activities
 Sustainable development
 Heavily affected by abnormal storms.
 Increased by coastal urbanization.
 Chile will be directly affected by rising sea levels.
 Low-lying coastal areas are expected to disappear due to rising sea levels.

 Adaption Options
 2009: The Chilean government initiated environmental policy reforms to strengthen
the legal framework for biodiversity conservation.
 Led to the development of the Ministry of Environment
 Chile still needs to commission research for the detailed analysis of erosion processes
in key vulnerable zones in central Chile.
 Chile has seen positive adaption through the construction of artificial beaches.
 Beach nourishment can be a positive practice to reduce high erosion rates.
 Institutional Framework for Adaption
 Signatory of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change since 1992
 Signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 1998 and 2002.
 Ratified the Montreal Protocol in 1990
 Signed and ratified the Paris Agreement in 2017
 2016: Created a committee of ministries for the implementation of sustainable
development
 Climate change communities are being introduced into municipalities.
 Climate change adaption strategies for 9 priority sectors:
 Agriculture and forestry
 Fishing and agriculture
 Heath
 Energy
 Disaster risk management