Special Report on

Business Confidence Indices and

Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
As of First Two Quarters of 2015

The Survey Results of 2013 and 2014 Business Perception Surveys

– General Directorate of Statistics, Central Informatics Organization (CIO)/ Informatics
& e-Government Authority, Kingdom of Bahrain

30 November 2015

“Our aim is towards periodic and timely compilation and dissemination of Business Confidence Indices
across all types of investments and other establishment characteristics.”

By Ricky Gomez Anunciacion (M.Sc. Statistics) is the Statistical Affairs Advisor for General
Directorate of Statistics in CIO and the Deputy Project Manager for Foreign Investment Statistics.
He is also a member of the International Statistical Institute, International Association of Official Statistics,
American Statistical Association and Project Management Institute.
 Page 2 of 15

The Business Confidence Index (BCI) increased by 2.98% in the first two
quarters of 2015 (reported at 107.89 points) as compared with the last two
quarters of 2014.
33.7% of the business establishments were optimistic about the performance of their
business and 8.1% foresee an unfavorable next two quarters.

1. Evolution of the Business Confidence Index, BCI

The Business Confidence Index (BCI) increased by 2.98% in the first two quarters of 2015 (BCI=107.89)
reported from BPS2 as compared to the last two quarters of 2014 (BCI=104.77) reported in BPS1.

Rate of BCI (%) for Business Performance of All

Surveyed Establishments in Bahrain
6.00 4.77
4.00 2.98
2.00
0.00
2014Q1Q2 - BPS1 2014Q3Q4 - BPS2

2. Opinions regarding the first two quarters of 2015 (Expectation)

33.7% of the establishments considered the performance of their business during the first two
quarters of 2015 would be favorable, whereas 8.1% considered it to be unfavorable. The remaining 58.1%
considered that it would be normal.

Opinions regarding the first two quarters of 2015 (Expectation) – CIO Surveys 2013-2014
Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Expectation Balance
Favorable Unfavorable
Period Survey
(%) (%) (%) (Optimistic - Pessimistic)
2014Q1Q2 EEFIS 27.0 56.2 16.8 10.2
2014Q3Q4 BPS1 30.5 57.2 12.4 18.1
2015Q1Q2 BPS2 33.7 58.1 8.1 25.6

Evolution of the Expectation Balance

30.0
25.6
25.0
20.0 18.1

15.0
10.2
10.0
5.0
0.0
2013Q3Q4 2014Q1Q2 2014Q3Q4

Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain
 Page 3 of 15

3. Opinions regarding the last two quarters of 2014 (Situation)

25.2% of the establishments expressed a favorable opinion regarding the performance of their
business during the last two quarters of 2014. In turn, 10.4% had an unfavorable opinion.
The differences between these percentages of favorable and unfavorable responses referring to the
last two quarters of 2014, known as Situation Balance, stood at 14.8%, thereby slightly less than the
previous Expectation for the next two quarters, which stood at 18.1% as previously expressed/Part2 BPS1.

Opinions regarding the last two quarters of 2014 Situation – CIO Surveys 2013-2014
Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Situation Balance
Favorable Unfavorable
Period Survey
(%) (%) (%) (Optimistic - Pessimistic)
2013Q3Q4 EEFIS 22.7 52.5 24.7 -2.0
2014Q1Q2 BPS1 23.9 61.7 14.4 9.5
2014Q3Q4 BPS2 25.2 64.4 10.4 14.8

Evolution of the Situation Balance

20.0
14.8
15.0
9.5
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0 -2.0

-10.0
2013Q3Q4 2014Q1Q2 2014Q3Q4

4. Business Confidence Index by Size of Establishments

All sizes of establishments analyzed, presented rise in confidence, as compared with the previous two
quarters of 2014. The size bracket of more than 399 employees (LARGE2) registered the highest rate of
increase of 13.25%.

Rate of BCI for Business Performance of of All Surveyed

Establishments in Bahrain by Size of Establishment

More than 399 Employees (LARGE2) 13.25

From 101 to 249 Employees (MEDIUM2) 10.92

From 250 to 399 Employees (LARGE1) 6.27

From 51 to 100 Employees (MEDIUM1) 3.68

From 1 to 5 Employees (MICRO1) 3.17

GENERAL INDEX (Economy) 2.98

From 6 to 10 Employees (MICRO2) 2.45

From 11 to 50 Employees (SMALL) 1.79

Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain
 Page 4 of 15

5. Business Confidence Index by Activity Sector

All the activity sectors analyzed presented improvement on the confidence, as compared to the
previous two quarters of 2014, except for Real Estate (-6.25%). In turn, Construction registered the highest
rate of increase of 13.99%.
Rate of BCI for Business Performance of All Surveyed Establishments in
Bahrain by Economic Activity

Construction 13.99

Manufacturing 6.84

Information & Communications 5.90

Accommodation & Food 4.86

Finance and Insurace 3.30

GENERAL INDEX (Economy) 2.98

Trade 1.51

Others 1.34

Financial Banks 1.00

Real Estate (6.25)

6. Business Confidence Index by Type of Foreign Investments

Establishments with and without Inward FDI during the first two quarters of 2015 analyzed presented
improvement on the confidence (higher BCI), as compared to the previous two quarters of 2014

Rate of Change in BCI for Business Performance of All

Surveyed Establishments by Type of Foreign Investments

No Inward FDI 3.90

ECONOMY (General Index) 2.98

With Inward FDI 2.15

Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain
 Page 5 of 15

7. Business Confidence Index by Type of Investments

“Establishments with investments abroad” presented the highest rate of increase in confidence with
12.99% compared with all the other establishments classified by their type of investments which all
registered increases during the first two quarters of 2015, as compared to the previous two quarters of
2014

Rate of Change in BCI for Business Performance of All Surveyed

Establishments from 2014Q3Q4 to 2015Q1Q2
Have No Inward FDI but have Investments
12.99
abroad
Have Both Inward FDI & Investments Abroad 4.54

All Resident Investments 3.23

ECONOMY (General Index) 2.98

With Inward FDI only 1.66

Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain
 Page 6 of 15
Methodological Notes
Business Confidence Indices (BCI), Business Confidence (BC), Situation and Expectation Indicators

The surveys on which the BCIs and BCs are based on Business Perception Surveys conducted by the General
Directorate of Statistics under the Central Informatics Organization (CIO /Informatics & e-Government
Authority), were prepared based on a representative sample of establishments deemed to have Inward
Foreign Direct Investments, investments abroad or outward FDI, have large paid-up capital of at least BD
250,000 or have Non-Bahraini /foreign shareholders (based on registers) distributed across all sizes of
establishments, whose opinions began to be collected in a series of opinion surveys in 2013 (EEFIS; 519
respondents) and 2014 for BPS1 (772 respondents) and BPS2 (617 respondents).

The population scope of the survey comprised of all those commercial establishments registered under the
Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Tourism’s commercial registration as well as all licensed establishments
by the Central Bank of Bahrain as of 31st December of the reference financial year.

The conducted Business Perception Surveys were conducted to gather the opinions of the establishment
managers regarding the performance of their business for each last two quarters (six months), and regarding
their expectations for coming next two quarters (six months). The methodology is based on the Japanese
TANKAN index. In other words, there are no weightings or elevations according to the characteristics of the
establishments, as the opinion of each respondent establishment carries the same weight. The BCIs were
compiled every after survey project completion and this is the first publication of the results for distribution to
statistics stakeholders. If surveys were continuously conducted and with full cooperation by respondents, then
a complete series can be compiled and disseminated periodically and more timely. Three indicators are based
on this question from the questionnaire:
How would you assess the performance of the business in your establishment in Bahrain?
Favorable/Better Normal/Same Unfavorable/Worse
SITUATION: In the last two quarters (six months) and now?
EXPECTATIONS: In the next two quarters (six months)?

The Business Confidence is derived using a conveniently standardized geometric average between the
Situation and the Expectation balances.
The Expectation Indicator (stated as Expectations) includes the difference or balance between the percentages
of favorable and unfavorable responses with regard to the next two quarters. It can fluctuate between –100
(all of the respondents are pessimistic – that is, they have marked the Unfavorable box - regarding the coming
quarters) and +100 (all of the respondents are optimistic - that is, they have marked the Favorable box-). An
intuitive interpretation thereof is simple and direct. If the Expectations are positive, the optimists exceed the
pessimists with regard to the next two quarters (six months).
In turn, the Situation Indicator (Situation) is the difference or balance between the percentages of favorable
and unfavorable responses observed during the last two quarters (6 months) that ended.
Business Confidence (BC) is defined as the average between the Situation and Expectations. A geometric
average is used, and specifically:

Business Confidence may, therefore, fluctuate between extremes of -100 to +100.

The Business Confidence Index (BCI) is built using the Situation and the Expectations. The base for this index is
the last two quarters of 2013 (EEFIS survey), and the value is therefore equal to 100 only for calculation of BCI
for BPS1. Specifically, the general form of the BCI is given by

BCI = [BC_Current + 200] / [BC_Previous + 200] x 100.

Information about the three indicators is disseminated for the national total (Economy), by activity sectors, by
the size of the establishments and by type of investments (with inward FDI, investments abroad, etc.).
Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain
 Page 7 of 15
A. Business Confidence Indicators - First Two Quarters of 2015 (Six Months)
1. Business Confidence Index by Activity Sector – CIO Surveys 2013-2014

TOTAL Accommod Informati

Finance NON-
FINANCIAL Financial Constru on & Manufactu Real Trade (Retail
Period ECONO SECTOR Banks
& FINANCIAL ation &
ction Commun ring Estate & Wholesale)
Others
MY Insurance SECTOR Food ications
2014Q3Q4 104.77 99.01 101.59 98.37 106.86 110.43 95.87 123.26 101.14 107.55 108.79 107.39
2015Q1Q2 107.89 101.74 102.60 101.61 110.04 115.80 109.28 130.54 108.06 100.83 110.44 108.83

2. Business Confidence Index by Size of Establishments – CIO Surveys 2013-2014

From 6 to From 11 to From 51 to From 101 to From 250 More than

From 1 to 5
TOTAL 10 50 100 249 to 399 399
Period Employees
ECONOMY Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees
(MICRO1)
(MICRO2) (SMALL) (MEDIUM1) (MEDIUM2) (LARGE1) (LARGE2)
2014Q3Q4 104.77 111.87 107.80 99.44 96.85 99.08 105.49 100.12
2015Q1Q2 107.89 115.42 110.44 101.22 100.42 109.91 112.10 113.38

3. Business Confidence Index by Type of Investments – CIO Surveys 2013-2014

WITH With Inward FDI With Both NO With

TOTAL & No Inward FDI & All Resident
Period INWARD Investments Investments
INWARD Investment
Investments
ECONOMY s Abroad
FDI Abroad Abroad FDI
2014Q3Q4 104.77 102.59 100.36 111.94 106.21 84.78 107.96
2015Q1Q2 107.89 104.80 102.02 117.03 110.35 95.79 111.45

4. Business Confidence Index by Type of Foreign Investments & Activity Sector

Survey BPS1 BPS2

Period 2014Q3Q4 2015Q1Q2

TOTAL ECONOMY 104.77 107.89

WITH INWARD FDI 102.59 104.80
Financial 101.16 102.20
Banks 101.64 101.14
Finance & Insurance 101.34 103.55
Non-Financial 105.25 107.69
Accommodation & Food 99.74 100.00
Construction 101.60 110.23
Information & Communications 115.59 124.72
Manufacturing 91.03 101.79
Real Estate 116.25 116.67
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 119.83 118.09
Others 108.14 103.43
NO INWARD FDI 106.21 110.35
Financial 95.46 101.63
Banks 100.88 109.05
Finance & Insurance 94.70 100.00
Non-Financial 107.42 110.86
Accommodation & Food 112.51 118.15
Construction 96.48 108.88
Information & Communications 127.37 133.14
Manufacturing 109.52 113.68
Real Estate 103.72 96.05
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 106.36 108.93
Others 106.88 110.52

Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain
 Page 8 of 15
B. Opinions (Expectations) for First Two Quarters of 2015 (Six Months) – CIO BPS2 Survey 2014

5. Opinions regarding the first two quarters of 2015 (Expectation) by Activity Sector

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Expectation Balance

Activity Sector Favorable Unfavorable
(%) (%) (%) (Optimistic - Pessimistic)
Total Economy 33.7 58.1 8.1 25.6
Financial 34.0 61.4 4.6 29.4
Banks 31.1 68.9 0.0 31.1
Finance & Insurance 35.8 56.9 7.3 28.5
Non-Financial 33.6 56.6 9.8 23.7
Accommodation & Food 41.9 41.9 16.1 25.8
Construction 34.3 51.4 14.3 20.0
Information & Communications 33.3 61.9 4.8 28.6
Manufacturing 37.5 60.4 2.1 35.4
Real Estate 29.7 56.8 13.5 16.2
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 32.2 55.4 12.4 19.8
Others 32.3 60.5 7.3 25.0

6. Opinions regarding the first two quarters of 2015 (Expectation) by Size of Establishments

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Expectation Balance

Size of Establishments Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Total Economy 33.7 58.1 8.1 25.6
From 1 to 5 Employees (MICRO1) 29.2 59.4 11.4 17.8
From 6 to 10 Employees (MICRO2) 46.3 50.0 3.8 42.5
From 11 to 50 Employees (SMALL) 30.6 61.8 7.6 22.9
From 51 to 100 Employees (MEDIUM1) 39.6 56.3 4.2 35.4
From 101 to 249 Employees (MEDIUM2) 32.7 63.3 4.1 28.6
From 250 to 399 Employees (LARGE1) 43.8 50.0 6.3 37.5
More than 399 Employees (LARGE2) 60.0 40.0 0.0 60.0

7. Opinions regarding the first two quarters of 2015 (Expectation) by Type of Investments

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Expectation Balance

Type of Investments Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
TOTAL ECONOMY 33.7 58.1 8.1 25.6
WITH INWARD FDI 33.5 62.6 3.9 29.6
With Inward FDI & No Investments Abroad 32.0 63.4 4.7 27.3
With Both Inward FDI & Investments Abroad 41.2 58.8 0.0 41.2
NO INWARD FDI 33.8 55.9 10.3 23.5
With Investments Abroad 38.5 53.8 7.7 30.8
All Resident Investments 33.5 56.0 10.5 23.0

Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain
 Page 9 of 15
8. Opinions regarding the first two quarters of 2015 (Expectation) by Type of Foreign Investments and Activity
Section

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Expectation Balance

Activity Sector Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Total Economy 33.7 58.1 8.1 25.6
WITH INWARD FDI 33.5 62.6 3.9 29.6
Financial 36.6 61.6 1.8 34.8
Banks 30.5 69.5 0.0 30.5
Finance & Insurance 43.4 52.8 3.8 39.6
Non-Financial 29.8 63.8 6.4 23.4
Accommodation & Food 33.3 33.3 33.3 0.0
Construction 40.0 20.0 40.0 0.0
Information & Communications 33.3 66.7 0.0 33.3
Manufacturing 38.9 61.1 0.0 38.9
Real Estate 50.0 50.0 0.0 50.0
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 21.7 73.9 4.3 17.4
Others 23.3 70.0 6.7 16.7
NO INWARD FDI 33.8 55.9 10.3 23.5
Financial 30.6 61.2 8.2 22.4
Banks 33.3 66.7 0.0 33.3
Finance & Insurance 30.0 60.0 10.0 20.0
Non-Financial 34.7 54.5 10.8 23.8
Accommodation & Food 42.9 42.9 14.3 28.6
Construction 33.3 56.7 10.0 23.3
Information & Communications 33.3 58.3 8.3 25.0
Manufacturing 36.7 60.0 3.3 33.3
Real Estate 25.8 58.1 16.1 9.7
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 34.7 51.0 14.3 20.4
Others 35.1 57.4 7.4 27.7

9. Other Variables: Opinions regarding the first two quarters of 2015 (Expectation)

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Expectation Balance

Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
Other Variables
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Overall Economic Conditions of Bahrain 19.94 66.61 13.45 6.48

Hired Staff (Employment in Establishment) 19.21 71.85 8.94 10.26

Turnover Capacity (Volume of Business,
Production or Services)
8.57 83.69 7.74 0.82

Change in Input Prices 13.36 78.83 7.82 5.54

Change in Output Prices/Selling Prices 18.50 73.67 7.83 10.67

Financial Position 15.01 66.88 18.11 -3.10

Profitability 29.41 57.03 13.56 15.85

Domestic Supply/Demand for
Products/Services
10.17 82.54 7.29 2.88

Overseas Supply/Demand for Products 5.71 92.17 2.12 3.59

Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain
 Page 10 of 15

C. Opinions (Situations) for Last Two Quarters of 2014 (Six Months) – CIO BPS2 Survey 2014

10. Opinions regarding the last two quarters of 2014 (Situation) by Activity Sector

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Situation Balance

Activity Sector Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Total Economy 25.2 64.4 10.4 14.8
Financial 28.8 65.2 6.1 22.7
Banks 32.4 63.5 4.1 28.4
Finance & Insurance 26.6 66.1 7.3 19.4
Non-Financial 23.4 64.1 12.4 11.0
Accommodation & Food 25.0 53.1 21.9 3.1
Construction 22.9 65.7 11.4 11.4
Information & Communications 28.6 61.9 9.5 19.0
Manufacturing 19.1 70.2 10.6 8.5
Real Estate 21.1 65.8 13.2 7.9
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 24.0 62.8 13.2 10.7
Others 24.2 65.3 10.5 13.7

11. Opinions regarding the last two quarters of 2014 (Situation) by Size of Establishments

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Situation Balance

.Size of Establishments Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Total Economy 25.2 64.4 10.4 14.8
From 1 to 5 Employees (MICRO1) 23.5 62.9 13.6 10.0
From 6 to 10 Employees (MICRO2) 29.1 64.6 6.3 22.8
From 11 to 50 Employees (SMALL) 19.3 70.3 10.3 9.0
From 51 to 100 Employees (MEDIUM1) 27.1 64.6 8.3 18.8
From 101 to 249 Employees (MEDIUM2) 38.8 53.1 8.2 30.6
From 250 to 399 Employees (LARGE1) 31.3 56.3 12.5 18.8
More than 399 Employees (LARGE2) 40.0 60.0 0.0 40.0

12. Opinions regarding the last two quarters of 2014 (Situation) by Type of Investments

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Situation Balance

Type of Investments Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
TOTAL ECONOMY 25.2 64.4 10.4 14.8
WITH INWARD FDI 22.8 69.9 7.3 15.5
With Inward FDI & No Investments Abroad 20.9 70.9 8.1 12.8
With Both Inward FDI & Investments Abroad 32.4 64.7 2.9 29.4
NO INWARD FDI 26.3 61.7 12.0 14.4
With Investments Abroad 34.6 57.7 7.7 26.9
All Resident Investments 25.8 62.0 12.2 13.5

Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain
 Page 11 of 15
13. Opinions regarding the last two quarters of 2014 (Situation) by Type of Foreign Investments and Activity
Section

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Expectation Balance

Activity Sector Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Total Economy 25.2 64.4 10.4 14.8
WITH INWARD FDI 22.8 69.9 7.3 15.5
Financial 25.9 68.8 5.4 20.5
Banks 28.8 66.1 5.1 23.7
Finance & Insurance 22.6 71.7 5.7 17.0
Non-Financial 19.1 71.3 9.6 9.6
Accommodation & Food 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Construction 0.0 80.0 20.0 -20.0
Information & Communications 22.2 77.8 0.0 22.2
Manufacturing 27.8 72.2 0.0 27.8
Real Estate 16.7 83.3 0.0 16.7
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 21.7 65.2 13.0 8.7
Others 16.7 66.7 16.7 0.0
NO INWARD FDI 26.3 61.7 12.0 14.4
Financial 32.6 60.5 7.0 25.6
Banks 46.7 53.3 0.0 46.7
Finance & Insurance 29.6 62.0 8.5 21.1
Non-Financial 24.7 62.0 13.3 11.4
Accommodation & Food 27.6 48.3 24.1 3.4
Construction 26.7 63.3 10.0 16.7
Information & Communications 33.3 50.0 16.7 16.7
Manufacturing 13.8 69.0 17.2 -3.4
Real Estate 21.9 62.5 15.6 6.3
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 24.5 62.2 13.3 11.2
Others 26.6 64.9 8.5 18.1

14. Other Variables: Opinions regarding the last two quarters of 2014 (Situation)

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Situation Balance

Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
Other Variables
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Overall Economic Conditions of Bahrain 34.85 57.49 7.65 27.20
Hired Staff (Employment in Establishment) 15.87 70.08 14.05 1.82
Turnover Capacity (Volume of Business,
Production or Services) 5.79 83.11 11.09 -5.30
Change in Input Prices 15.96 77.69 6.35 9.61
Change in Output Prices/Selling Prices 14.86 71.95 13.19 1.67
Financial Position 11.11 64.05 24.84 -13.73
Profitability 21.24 59.31 19.44 1.80
Domestic Supply/Demand for
Products/Services 5.80 85.67 8.53 -2.73
Overseas Supply/Demand for Products 5.38 92.50 2.12 3.26

Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain
 Page 12 of 15
D. Opinions (Expectations) for Last Two Quarters of 2014 (Six Months) – CIO BPS1 Survey 2014

15. Opinions regarding the last two quarters of 2014 (Expectation) by Activity Sector

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Expectation Balance

Activity Sector Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Total Economy 30.5 57.2 12.4 18.1
Financial 31.0 59.1 9.9 21.1
Banks 28.2 69.0 2.8 25.4
Finance & Insurance 32.3 54.7 13.0 19.3
Non-Financial 30.2 56.3 13.4 16.8
Accommodation & Food 22.9 62.9 14.3 8.6
Construction 21.4 51.8 26.8 -5.4
Information & Communications 25.8 61.3 12.9 12.9
Manufacturing 28.4 56.7 14.9 13.4
Real Estate 35.7 59.5 4.8 31.0
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 30.7 51.8 17.5 13.1
Others 34.5 58.3 7.1 27.4

16. Opinions regarding the last two quarters of 2014 (Expectation) by Size of Establishments

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Expectation Balance

Size of Establishments Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Total Economy 30.5 57.2 12.4 18.1
From 1 to 5 Employees (MICRO1) 27.8 57.1 15.1 12.7
From 6 to 10 Employees (MICRO2) 34.9 59.4 5.7 29.2
From 11 to 50 Employees (SMALL) 31.7 52.7 15.6 16.1
From 51 to 100 Employees (MEDIUM1) 36.8 55.9 7.4 29.4
From 101 to 249 Employees (MEDIUM2) 26.0 58.0 16.0 10.0
From 250 to 399 Employees (LARGE1) 16.7 75.0 8.3 8.3
More than 399 Employees (LARGE2) 37.9 51.7 10.3 27.6

17. Opinions regarding the last two quarters of 2014 (Expectation) by Type of Investments

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Expectation Balance

Type of Investments Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
TOTAL ECONOMY 30.5 57.2 12.4 18.1
WITH INWARD FDI 29.8 59.6 10.6 19.1
With Inward FDI & No Investments Abroad 30.2 57.8 12.0 18.2
With Both Inward FDI & Investments Abroad 27.8 68.5 3.7 24.1
NO INWARD FDI 31.0 55.4 13.7 17.3
With Investments Abroad 34.3 45.7 20.0 14.3
All Resident Investments 30.7 56.2 13.1 17.6

Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain
 Page 13 of 15
18. Opinions regarding the last two quarters of 2014 (Expectation) by Type of Foreign Investments and
Activity Section

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Expectation Balance

Activity Sector Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Total Economy 30.5 57.2 12.4 18.1
WITH INWARD FDI 29.8 59.6 10.6 19.1
Financial 32.0 62.0 6.0 26.0
Banks 30.6 66.1 3.2 27.4
Finance & Insurance 33.0 59.1 8.0 25.0
Non-Financial 27.9 57.5 14.5 13.4
Accommodation & Food 28.6 57.1 14.3 14.3
Construction 12.5 56.3 31.3 -18.8
Information & Communications 22.2 61.1 16.7 5.6
Manufacturing 24.1 58.6 17.2 6.9
Real Estate 30.0 60.0 10.0 20.0
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 29.4 61.8 8.8 20.6
Others 33.8 53.8 12.3 21.5
NO INWARD FDI 31.0 55.4 13.7 17.3
Financial 29.3 53.7 17.1 12.2
Banks 11.1 88.9 0.0 11.1
Finance & Insurance 31.5 49.3 19.2 12.3
Non-Financial 31.4 55.7 12.9 18.5
Accommodation & Food 21.4 64.3 14.3 7.1
Construction 25.0 50.0 25.0 0.0
Information & Communications 30.8 61.5 7.7 23.1
Manufacturing 31.6 55.3 13.2 18.4
Real Estate 37.5 59.4 3.1 34.4
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 31.1 48.5 20.4 10.7
Others 35.0 61.2 3.9 31.1

19. Other Variables: Opinions regarding the last two quarters of 2014 (Expectation)

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Expectation Balance

Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
Other Variables
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Overall Economic Conditions of Bahrain 28.4 59.5 12.1 16.3
Hired Staff (Employment in Establishment) 22.7 66.0 11.3 11.3
Turnover Capacity (Volume of Business,
Production or Services)
11.1 78.9 10.0 1.1
Change in Input Prices 31.9 63.3 4.8 27.1
Change in Output Prices/Selling Prices 20.0 69.3 10.7 9.3
Financial Position 14.6 63.7 21.7 -7.1
Profitability 29.2 52.2 18.7 10.5
Domestic Supply/Demand for
Products/Services 11.6 79.3 9.1 2.5
Overseas Supply/Demand for Products 5.3 91.7 3.0 2.3

Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain
 Page 14 of 15

E. Opinions (Situation) for First Two Quarters of 2014 (Six Months) – CIO BPS1 Survey 2014

20. Opinions regarding the first two quarters of 2014 (Situation) by Activity Sector

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Situation Balance

Activity Sector Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Total Economy 23.9 61.7 14.4 9.5
Financial 26.6 65.7 7.7 18.9
Banks 31.0 67.6 1.4 29.6
Finance & Insurance 24.7 64.8 10.5 14.2
Non-Financial 22.7 60.0 17.3 5.4
Accommodation & Food 14.3 71.4 14.3 0.0
Construction 16.1 51.8 32.1 -16.1
Information & Communications 19.4 71.0 9.7 9.7
Manufacturing 22.1 57.4 20.6 1.5
Real Estate 28.6 64.3 7.1 21.4
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 28.5 54.0 17.5 10.9
Others 21.3 63.3 15.4 5.9

21. Opinions regarding the first two quarters of 2014 (Situation) by Size of Establishments

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Situation Balance

.Size of Establishments Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Total Economy 23.9 61.7 14.4 9.5
From 1 to 5 Employees (MICRO1) 18.6 64.8 16.6 2.0
From 6 to 10 Employees (MICRO2) 34.0 56.6 9.4 24.5
From 11 to 50 Employees (SMALL) 21.9 64.2 13.9 8.0
From 51 to 100 Employees (MEDIUM1) 27.9 52.9 19.1 8.8
From 101 to 249 Employees (MEDIUM2) 26.0 52.0 22.0 4.0
From 250 to 399 Employees (LARGE1) 29.2 62.5 8.3 20.8
More than 399 Employees (LARGE2) 24.1 65.5 10.3 13.8

22. Opinions regarding the first two quarters of 2014 (Situation) by Type of Investments

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Situation Balance

Type of Investments Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
TOTAL ECONOMY 23.9 61.7 14.4 9.5
WITH INWARD FDI 27.4 61.7 10.9 16.4
With Inward FDI & No Investments Abroad 26.5 61.5 12.0 14.5
With Both Inward FDI & Investments Abroad 31.5 63.0 5.6 25.9
NO INWARD FDI 21.3 61.8 17.0 4.3
With Investments Abroad 17.1 57.1 25.7 -8.6
All Resident Investments 21.6 62.2 16.2 5.4

Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain
 Page 15 of 15
23. Opinions regarding first two quarters of 2014 (Situation) by Type of Foreign Investments and Activity
Section

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Expectation Balance

Activity Sector Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Total Economy 23.9 61.7 14.4 9.5
WITH INWARD FDI 27.4 61.7 10.9 16.4
Financial 29.1 66.2 4.6 24.5
Banks 30.6 67.7 1.6 29.0
Finance & Insurance 28.1 65.2 6.7 21.3
Non-Financial 25.8 57.9 16.3 9.6
Accommodation & Food 14.3 57.1 28.6 -14.3
Construction 12.5 43.8 43.8 -31.3
Information & Communications 22.2 72.2 5.6 16.7
Manufacturing 27.6 55.2 17.2 10.3
Real Estate 44.4 55.6 0.0 44.4
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 29.4 52.9 17.6 11.8
Others 26.2 61.5 12.3 13.8
NO INWARD FDI 21.3 61.8 17.0 4.3
Financial 22.0 64.6 13.4 8.5
Banks 33.3 66.7 0.0 33.3
Finance & Insurance 20.5 64.4 15.1 5.5
Non-Financial 21.1 61.1 17.8 3.3
Accommodation & Food 14.3 75.0 10.7 3.6
Construction 17.5 55.0 27.5 -10.0
Information & Communications 15.4 69.2 15.4 0.0
Manufacturing 17.9 59.0 23.1 -5.1
Real Estate 24.2 66.7 9.1 15.2
Trade (Retail & Wholesale) 28.2 54.4 17.5 10.7
Others 18.3 64.4 17.3 1.0

24. Other Variables: Opinions regarding the first two quarters of 2014 (Situation)

Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Situation Balance

Favorable Unfavorable (Optimistic -
Other Variables
(%) (%) (%) Pessimistic)
Overall Economic Conditions of Bahrain 15.3 65.3 19.4 -4.1
Hired Staff (Employment in Establishment) 16.6 61.9 21.5 -4.9
Turnover Capacity (Volume of Business,
Production or Services) 7.3 77.9 14.9 -7.6
Change in Input Prices 33.0 61.7 5.3 27.7
Change in Output Prices/Selling Prices 14.4 66.2 19.4 -5.0
Financial Position 8.7 63.3 28.0 -19.3
Profitability 18.4 56.3 25.2 -6.8
Domestic Supply/Demand for Products/Services 7.3 84.1 8.6 -1.3
Overseas Supply/Demand for Products 3.6 93.5 2.9 0.8

Special Report on Business Confidence Indices and Foreign Investments in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Compilation of Survey Results of 2013 & 2014 Business Perception Surveys conducted by CIO General Directorate of Statistics, Bahrain