Blitz Bowl: Ultimate | Math Edition An Analysis by djaklTable Of Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. Move | Sprinting the Pitch 2 3. Block | d_Injuries 9 4, Throw | Completion 18 5. Armor | in The Astrogranite 1 6. Foul | Those Bones! 2, Scoring on the ‘urn 26 8, Clean Sweep! od E on 29 9. Clean Moving Edition 10. Clean Blocking Edition 11. Clean Throwing Edition 12. Clean A Bit of Everything Edition 13. Absolute Maximum Points in a Turn 14 am Value System 15. Live by the 6 by the 6 86 16. Blitz Bowl Chimera Monsters 9 1. Bash-Dash Spectrum 93 18. Bash-Dash Spectrum | Pitches 10 19. Concluding Remarks 1151. Introduction It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a bored person in possession of bountiful free time, must be in want of @ hobby. Towards this goal in vigorous pursuit I found myself, until salvation appeared in the form of a birthday present: Blitz Bowl (Season 1). Since that fortuitous event - aided by a later purchase of the Ultimate dition along the way - I have realized that this marvelous board game has satiated my varied hobby cravings: board gaming, miniature figurine painting, spreadsheet-making, creative writing, and woodworking. By way of example, this document purports to provide an infusion of probability and number-crunching into a blend of spreadsheet-making and creative writing. That I feel entirely at ease with the amount of time T spent preparing this document only solidifies my belief in the excellence of this Games Workshop offering, for even half the duration allocated to a mere “good game” should elicit at least transient ennui; though, perhaps such indifference suggests an improvenent in my ability to waste time via an increased capacity for shamelessness towards time-wasting. This document is divided into chapters to cover various musings of mathematical scenarios within the realm of Blitz Bowl: Ultimate Edition. Some of these write-ups will be brief and straightforward while others will cover the particular topic in more depth. For most analyses, only official teams from the Blitz Bowl: Ultinate Edition (comprising 19 total teams) are presented in this analysis. For building the Blitz Bowl Team Value System, the team list is expanded to include homebrew teams that Coaches have developed themselves.Whenever possible, pitch diagrams and charts are incorporated to better explain setups and scenarios. When it comes to pitch diagrams, the defensive team is the Human team unless otherwise noted. Here are the pictograms for that team: Most other visual aids should be self-explanatory. In any case, please enjoy the following analysis, or lack thereof any disagreements will be settled on the Astrogranite pitch! - ajakl Note: For additional Blitz Bowl: Ultimate Edition documents that may be of potential interest, please see the following links; please copy for personal use and share with others if inclined. Blitz Bowl Game Records: A spreadsheet that helps record game data, including advanced statistics such as BDash Rating and Game Rating. Blitz Bowl: Ultimate Edition ~ VirtualFiel A fully playable version of the game created entirely within Google Sheets. Blitz Bowl Puzzles: A document, updated frequently, that provides a list of puzzle vignettes created by various Coaches for one to tackle.2. Move | Sprinting the Pitch Or: So many actions, so close to the end zone. As slippery as he is filthy, the Gutter Runner scanpers along the length of the pitch. A dagger in one hand, he scoops up the loose ball with the other. With only a slow-footed Lineman between him and the end zone, the Gutter Runner feints one way and then reverses direction, leaving the opposition in a discoordinated heap. o The standard Blitz Bowl pitch is 11 tiles wide and 15 tiles in length. At the start of a game, players on either side line up in their respective end zones. Thus, a player is at most 14 tiles away from the far end zone of the pitch. Since even the fastest of players (Gutter Runner) has a Move of 9, no player can sprint the length of the pitch in one tion, or even one turn, at least without the addition of Bonus Play cards. However, reaching in two actions over two turns is possible. All of these s esume ty 2 zone left uncovered by the adversary. Note that there is a way for a player to go from one end zone to another in one turn (see the write-up on Scoring on the First Turn)! Move 9 | 1 Turn, 3 Actions: Run (with Sprint), Mark, Sidestep With a Move 9, the Gutter Runner cannot make it from end to end in one tuzn without help. Using the Bonus Play card Sprint (total Move 11), the Gutter Runner can then Mark 2 and then Sidestep into the end zone for a remarkable feat of athleticism, Note that the Bonus Play card Interference (Mark up to 4) in place of Sprint would also complete the one-turn Run from end zone to end zone.Move 7+ | 2 Turns, 2 Actions: Run All players with a Move speed of end zone in two Run actions over | Run 7 of greater can reach the opposing two turns. skaven Gutter Runner igardmen Skink (x2) aunan catcher Necromantic Werewolf Wood catcher Hood Hardancer Dark Runner Dark Dark ELE Union duman Lizardmen necz Noble skaven mantic Skaven snotling undead. Wood E1¢ Wood ELE Chameleon Ghoul Blitzer Eineman (x3) Thrower Blitzer seaity Ghoul Lineman (#3) Thrower The entire Move T+ to Move 7+ | 2 Turns, 2 Actions: Run Agter a completed catch by a Catcher, roster of two teams, Skaven and Wood Elf, have players with reach the opposite end zone in two Run actions. | Throw (Run via Catcher’s Instinct) the Catcher's Instinct skill can then be used in Turn 2 to make a free Run to the opposing end zone. Teams with Catchers who can accomplish this scenario are the 31f Union, Human, of all the Catchers featured in the base teams, Catcher (Move 5) and Wood B1f. Catcher catcher catcher cannot reach in two actions! only the HalflingMove 6 | 2 Turns, 4 Actions: Run | Run, Mark, Sidestep For those players with Move less than 7, it is still possible to reach in two turns. After a Run with the first turn, the second turn would then require a Run, Mark, and a Sidestep into the end zone. Via these actions, the following Move 6 players can reach in two turns. Back Ore | Goblin G3) Tizeranen | 8. Blocker (3) ae eres Necromantic | Reaith? Lineman (33) Noble Lineman (32) Eas Noble nee Lineman (33) Noble board (32) Goblin (x6) . Murgle Pestigor co Lineman (32) °: plitzer nae snot ing Fun-Hoppa gnome | Marauder (23) snotiing | Pamp-iagon** aes knoragor Undead waghe * This player cannot pick up the ball, so what’s the use, really? * This player can only reach on back-to-back rolls of a 6 Players with a Move value of 5 are one tile short of the opposing end zone! Aside from Skaven and Wood Ef, teams with all Move 7+ players, the following teams have entire rosters with Move 6+, and thus the capability to reach in two turns: Dark E1f, E1f Union, Human, Lizardnen, and Noble. Aside from those faster teams listed above, the following teams have at least one player of Move 6+ that can reach in two turns: Chaos, Dwarf, Goblin, Khorne, Nurgle, and Orc. only two teams, Halfling and Ogre, do not have any players with Move 6+ and cannot reach the opposing end zone in two turns via this pathway.Move § | 2 Turns, 4 Actions: Throw (Team-mate) | Run, Mark, Sidestep Three teams have the Throw Team-Mate ability, specifically the Troll of the Goblin team, the Treeman of the Halfling team, and the two ogres of the Ogre team. For each of these teams, the big guy(s) can spend an action to Long Throw a little guy. If a successful Throw, on the second turn the little guy can then Run, Mark, and Sidestep into the opposing end zone. Even if an Inaccurate Throw by the big guy, the little guy can use a Stand Up action during Turn 1. Move § | 3 Turns, 3 Actions: Run | Run | Run All of the teams have at least one player with a Move 5 or more. Therefore, it is more interesting to point out the players that cannot reach the opposite side via three Run actions: ore | Black ore (x3) deste Linesen (3) sobLin Brot angle Bloater (+2) unseen Zombie (x2) Sonny Move 3.1 4 Turns, 6 Actions: Run | Run | Run | Run, Mark, Sidestep Assuming all the opposing players are in their end zone, the only way @ player with Move 3 can reach the end zone is over four turns. only the Mummy on the Undead team has Move 3. Move 2 | 6 Turns, 8 Actions: Run | Run | Run | Run | Run | Run, Mark, Sidestep The slowest of the slowest is the Treeman on the Halfling team. Move 2 is really, really slow.9 Now, these scenarios all assume that the opposing team’s players are standing still in their own end zone. In a real Blitz Bowl game, that would never happen, or else the rowdy fans would jump down from the stands and start beating up on the players themselves! If there are opposing players somewhat scattered throughout the pitch, it is theoretically possible for a Move 4 player to reach the opposing end zone in 2 turns: Move 4 | 2 Turns, 6 Actions: Run, Mark, Sidestep | Run, Mark, Sidestep Moving continually in the direction of the opposition end zone, a combination of Run, Mazk, and Sidestep will result in 7 squares traversed. Therefore, only two such turns would be needed to sprint the length of the field. sanding stilts spectaniae The pitch diagram shows the actions taken by a single Black Ore player to move from end zone to end zone in two turns. Note that there is no ball (0) diagrammed.Here is the iz Galan nigardnen Boman uizardnon snotling undead, mood ELE Cerchee skink (x2) ae catoher Mardancer (3) slitzes vos Elf Blitzer Blitzer chameleon chink Hlitese Lineman (3) Blitze: stilty Runna dineman (43) sebiia Ga) Lineman (x3) 8 ae ‘snotling Tadead. chaos Halfling salfling Halfling = Norgie ogre ore Suctling snotling vadead Lineman (x2) chrower ard (42) elites Fun-oppa might S. Bisckes” (x2) elites ‘eoll slayer Ropefil (ct) caccher ineman (3) cneblar (x6) osr= (x2) Zineman (x3) Big Ua Blocker anotling (x6! Fungus Flinga x2 ose (x3) Lineman (3) roll Zombie (x3) Flesh Gol: suman zineman (x3) Eloater (x2) Bunan ‘Thrower Zonbie (12) Ehorne Mazeudes (x3) Pump Wagon* 3.5 Bhorne Rhornger Mummy a nizardnen Blocker (x3) a 2 saorenantic meaich * Pump Wagon uses a D6 for Move, which produces an expected Move of 33. Block | Knock Downs and Injuries Or: Which player can pack the most punch, and then some? The player is smashed against the wali with a loud thud and a cracking of bones as the crowd roars with frenzied delight. Before the stretcher-bearers can come onto the field to carry the prone player off the field, the blocker bodysiams upon the unmoving foe. Another crunch is heard, this time emanating from the long bone of the other arm. “sorry, T slipped,” the Blitzer mutters as he glances towards the zebra-shirt. The Referee, who has had a full view of the incident, only nods in reply, his lips forming the faintest upturned smile. Sometimes the best part about being the Ref is that one has the best seat in the house. 9 Blocking is a core skill in both Blitz Bowl and Blood Bowl. Eventually, no matter how elusive and agile one is, there will be an opponent standing in the way of where one needs to get. So, better start practicing for those Smashes! and Kerrunches! Knock Down Probabilizy Tables Before injuring an Marked player, the Blocker must first knock down that player. The rate of knock down varies depending on the number of Block die rolled and if the defending player has their back against another player, obstacle, or pitch boundary.If the goal of the turn is to inflict a knock down, then using a Blitzer (Offensive Specialist ability) or a Block 2 player would be solid choices with 0.750 probability of success. Alternatively, an Assisted Block (0.750 probability) is equivalent to these options. Against an obstruction, the probability of a knock down is very high, at least 0.833 (i.e. 5/6) for all players besides those with Titchy or Insignificant. Note that both Stand Firm and Hulking Brute abilities negate the advantage of against-obstacle Blocks. Next, the Injury Probability Tables is presented for every Block type, from what is the least to the most effective against Armor 4+. Titchy / Insignificant: Injury Probability Tables Effect of Titchy / Insignificant on Blocking: when this player performs a Block action, treat results of Tackle as Miss. Players with these two skills have the weakest Block by a significant margin, as the rate of knock down is only 0.333 compared with 0.500 for that of the typical player with Block 1. 10Normal Block: Injury Probability Tables The base Blitz Bowl player will have a respective Block 1 with no modifier. If the goal is to cause an Injury, then the Blocking player will be successful at a rate of 0.278 against the typical Armor 4+ opponent, a rate that increases significantly to 0.444 when the opponent is against an obstacle. A Block 1 player with assist is equivalent to a Block 2 player without assist. In the open field, rolling two Block dice, the rate of Injury across different Armor levels ranges from 1.50x to 1.59x that of rolling one Block dice. Note that Block 1 against an obstacle actually is more favorable than Block 2 in the open field, for all Armor levels 3+ and worse. Needless to say, Block 3 wreaks havoc. Only the Pump Wagon and Block 2 players with assistance can reach this level of punch. Block 3 in the open field is weaker than Block 2 against an obstacle, but only just. aOffensive Specialist: Injury Probability Tables Effect of Offensive Specialist on Blocking: When this player makes a Block action, you can choose to re-roll the block dice. Comparing the Injury probabilities of Block 1 Offensive Specialist to Block 2 normal dice, it is found that the results of Injury are remarkably similar, favoring slightly the Block 2 player. However, when the Offensive Specialist receives an assist, the results are very favorable. In the open field, Block 2 Offensive Specialist achieves a better Injury rate than Block 3 nozmal. Against an obstacle, Block 3 holds a slight advantage for Armor 2+ to Armor 547 in any case, the player at the receiving end of that Block action will likely need some medical assistance. Normally, there is no opportunity for an Offensive Specialist with Block 3, unless the Coach claims the Bonus Play card “This Kid’s Got Moxy” in the Endgame. 12Effect of Mighty Blow on Blocking: When this player makes a Block action, treat results on the block dice of 'Smash!' as 'Kerrunch!" Mighty Blow is a skill unique to the Mummy (Block 2) on the Undead team, and can be viewed as a slightly better version of Block 2 (but really, not by much at all). Claws: Injury Probability Tables 13Effect of Claws on Blocking: When this player makes a Block action, roll a D6 along with the block dice. If the result is a 6, the target is automatically Injured - do not resolve the block dic Unique to the Werewolf on the Necromantic team, the Claws ability shines in Injuring players with tough Armor. In the open field against an Armor 2+ player, the Block 1 Werewolf achieves an Injury rate 1.43x that of a Bleck 2 player and 1.40x that of a Block 1 Offensive Specialist. Hulking Brute: Injury Probability Tables Effect of Hulking Brute on Blocking: When this player makes a Block action, treat results on the block dice of 'Tackle' and 'smash!' as 'Kerrunch!.' ogres, the Treeman, and the Troll have this ability, and if they catch you in a corner - watch out! Normalized to a Block 1 player in the open field, a Block 2 player with Hulking Brute Injures at the following rates compared to a Block 1 Blocker: Armor 2+ at 1.72x; Armor 3+ at 1.47: ; Armor 4+ at 1.38%; Armor 5+ at 1.33x; Armor 6+ at 1.17x. Ouch! 14Effect of Enforcer on Blocking: When this player makes a Block action, you must resolve the result of all the dice rolled, p: ing the order they are resolved in. For each knocked down result, the opposing coach must make an Armor check for the target player. Enforcer is a skill unique to the Bloodseekers of the Khorne team. In the open field, comparing Block 2 with Enforcer versus with Hulking Brute, Enforcer is only better against Armor 6+. Blocking against obstacles, however, Enforcer is superior across the board. As Enforcer forces an Armor check for each knock down, Block 3 is quite powerful; in the open field, players with the Enforcer ability Injure at a rate of 0.298 against Armor 2+ and 0.477 against Armor 3+. As an aside, the Enforcer Probability Tables were the hardest to crunch. As an example: here is the formula for calculating Injury rate using Block 3 with Enforcer in the open field against Armor 4+: 1 253 2 2*3 3 24% 48 3y4 Injury Rate = Fed - QD) +ed-O GQ) +aed-G)+Hha-@) “a 2, 24 ot 3, 4: a-@6)+#a- 6+ Ha-O)+#a-H +a + aie 1sOverall Block Probability Tables: Here is a listing of players with Block skill aside from the default Block 1. Players that have abilities that influence Block frequency (i.e. Frenzied, Headbutt) have equivalent probabilities of injury as the prototypic player, and thus will be grouped in with that category. Below is the summary chart of Qpen Field Blocking for all players, with abilities in the order presented. A few points to highlight: Claws has the highest normalized Injury Rate for Armor 2+ and Armor 3+. Hulking Brute is the best Block 2 ability for Armor 2+ to Arnor 5+, while Enforcer is the best Block 2 ability for Armor 6+. ene prototrpe aieer 2 1.000 21.000 2.000 3.000 3.000 ry Blocker (32) 5. Siecier G3) sscranansic | elesh cole Moesie Bisater (22) ore sig tn slocesr vadoad omy 1.958 1.70 1.64 1.500 opti 16The second Block Probability table is related to Blocks Against Obstacles. Here, the Enforcer ability really shines through. Blocking against obstacles, Block 2 Enforcer cracks Armor 2+ at the near-identical rate as Block 1 Claws, at 1.833x normal Injury rates however, whereas Claws falls steeply off in effectiveness, Enforcer maintains throughout against Armor 3+ to Armoz 6+: 1,694x against Armor 3+; 1.556x against Armor 4+; 1,417x against Armor 5+; 1,306x against Armor 6+. snotling ote. ck ore (3) Siecuer (22) morale Bioacer (22) sig te ausekar a74. Throw | To Make A Completion or: Gotta catch ‘em all! whe ball arcs across the sky like a rainbow. Two defenders crowd around the Catcher, and all three players leap high as the ball comes plummeting down. four claws and two tails draped all over him, the Catcher snags the ball with one hand, Breaking free of the def lers, he sprints towards the end zone as exclamations of admiration rain down from above. 9 While a big-time Block into the unyielding Astrogranite turf will get spectators’ bloodlust riled up, a successful Long Throw can provoke similar cohs and aahs from the crowd. There is a difference between Long Throw and Obstructed Throw. However, as both function the same probability-wise, the rulebook’ s term "Risky Throw” as a catch-all for both Long Throw or Obstructed Throw will be used. As far as probabilities tables go, the Throwing Probability Tables are easy to calculate: for Short Throws, only a result of a 1 on the Dé roll is a Fumble; for Risky Throws, both a 1 and a 2 results in a Fumble, As a Risky Throw is simply a -1 modifier on the dic e result, a Throw 2+ on a Risky Throw is equivalent to a Throw 3+ on a Short Throw. This holds true for the following: 3+ Risky = 4+ Short, 4+ Risky = 5+ Short, and 6+ Risky = 5+ Short. Below are the two main Throw Probability Tables of interest for Short Throw and Risky Throw, respectively. 1sFor Risky Throws, the probability of success and failure is the same for a Throw of 5+ or 6+, as a natural 6 is successful every time. Over the course of the game, there are multiple opportunities to collect a Raw Talent Bonus Play card, on the backs of Move The Ball!, Showboat For The Crowd!, and Tie Them Up! This card can really help out a team te make a completion. With a re-roll on a Short Throw: 34 with re-roll > 2+, no re-roll; 4+ with re-roll > 3+, no re-roll; 5+ with re-rell > 4+, no re-roll; 5+, no reroll > 6+ with re-rell In the case of Risky Throws: 3+ with re-roll > 2+, no re-roll; 4+ with re-roll > 3+, no re-roll; 4+ no re-roll > 5+ with re-roll; $+ no re-rell > 6+ with re-roll Where is a wide disparity in the quality of Throwers among teams: 19Overall Throw Statistic Table oe Skewes as a4 Se a+ 6 Lineman (x3) = The E1£ Union have the best throwers, followed by the Wood Elf; ea of these teams has a Thrower with Throw 2+. Necromantic are the worst with four players with Throw 6+ and one (Wraith) whe cannot Throw at all. Nurgle and Undead aren’t far behind with five Throw 6+ players. 205. Armor | Staying Alive On The Astrogranite Or: Please, please don’t roll a one. It is what he has been training all year to do, through endless drills upon drills - the Blitzer rushes along the edge of the pitch, skirting past a sculpture depicting a pair of dueling gladiat. His target, an Orc Lineman, comes into view around the corner. Lowering his shoulder, the Human slams into the greenskin with a resounding thud! Standing triumphantly over his foe, albeit dazed and certainly concussed, the Blitzer stares down at the motionless Lineman with satisfacti: n. At Jong last = an Injury, to an Ore, moreover, the most durable of them all! Visions of Finally signing with the Reavers flicker through damaged neuronal pathways Then, with a twitch and a grunt, the Orc opens his eyes, staring up at the face of a now-stupefied Human, with an expression of utmost fury. o In the brutal arena of Blitz Bowl, no player is likely to remain untouched and unscathed over the course of an entire game. That being said, there are certain players who excel at shrugging off blows that would disable, probably permanently, a lesser-armored foe. The Armor Probability Tables can be viewed as the Block Injury Probability Tables but in reverse, Rather than repeating the same values, for the Armor Probability Tables the Injury rate for each Armor level is presented as normalized to a typical Armor 4+ (i.e. Injure rates normalized across each row, rather than down each column as in the Overall Block Probability Tables). 21gsr amy oes 02) 22Armor 2+ clearly stands out in its excellence. Against open field Blocks, Armor 2+ exhibits a save rate more than 2x that of a typical Armor 4+, other than against the Claws ability. Here is a listing of the Qverall Armor Statistic Table: 03) St 6 zombie (x2) ‘Snotiing |" Snotling (x6) might, snotling | Fungus Flinga snotling Fun-Boppa - snotling | stilty Runna Ore have the b: est Armor, as five of six players have Armor 2+. Dwarf are next-best with four Armor 2+ players. To no one's surprise, Snotling have the worst “Armor.” 236. Foul | Kerrunch Goes Those Bones! Or: A bagful of coins keeps the Ref’s whistle at bay! Even the most expensive and sturdy Armor cannot provide Injury-proof coverage of all the player’s body. It is to these more exposed regions - the face, each axillary crease, and the groin that the most cunning players target when the Ref’s back is turned. Fouling is considered unsportsmanlike and illegal by the rules of the game, but both these points are highly controversial and in fierce debate by players and fans alike. In some Blitz Bowl leagues, amended rules actually reward successful Foul actions, and there exist dirty players who make an entire career out of ging eyes or kicking the “front-tail" (for lack of a more respectable term) of downed players. o Given that making a Foul action is inherently risky, and that Fouls are only possible against Prone opponents (i.e. players who have already made a successful Armor save), from a gameplay perspective, Fouls generally occur against well-Armored opponents by “low-value” players. In other words, poorly-Armored opponents likely will get Injured after a Block while “high-value” players shy away from the risk of being sent off. With successive attempts at Fouling, the combined probability of a Take That! and Got Them! result follows that of successive Block 1 actions in producing a knock down: 0.500, 0.750, and 0.875. However, unlike with Blocks, Fouling players do not get the benefit of an assist, unless the Referee has been sufficiently compensated before the game. In addition, there is a unique drawback to Fouling: both Spotted! and Take That! results in the dirty player being thrown from the game! 24With 1 Foul attempt, there is only a 0.333 probability of Got Them!, though an overall 0.500 probability of Injury if Take That! is included. the probability of injury rises to 0.750 overall with back-to-back Foul attempts, but it is @ coin flip’s odds that at least one of the players committing a Foul action will be spotted by the Referee. It is highly unusual to commit three Foul actions in one turn, as this scenario implies surrounding a downed opponent with three open players. While the probability of Injury rises to 0.875, there is only 2 0,128 probability chat all three of the offensive players will get away with making a Foul action without at least one player being sent off. 287. Scoring on the First Turn Or: Hey, how did you do that. I call shenanigans! As the starting whistle blows, a good third of the crowd is shuffling slowly in from outside ¢h gates of the grandstands rance, while another third of the crowd queues at the concession stands to purchase mugs of Bloodweiser or a Zonbway sandwich. Suddenly, muzmurs and a collective gasp from those who have already found their way to their stadium seats - a Touchdown is scored! o While it may seem that there is no way to score a Touchdown on the first turn, given that the fastest player (Gutter Runner) only has Move 9, there actually exists two scenarios for such an event: There are several assumptions that must be satisfied 1. The team to score must be the Goblin team. While the Halfling team and the Ogre team both have players with the Throw Team-mate ability, the speed of the thrown team-mate (Move 5) is insufficient to reach the opposing end zone in one turn. 2. The opposing team lines up their players such that there are open squares in the end zone. 3. The pitch is either that of Pitch 4 or Pitch 6. 4, The ball must be placed on the far trapdoor al the start. Let's cover the Pitch 6 scenario before the Pitch 4 scenario as that has better probability of success: 26Action 1: The Troll must Risky Throw a Goblin onto the square one before that of the far trapdoor square containing the ball (i.e. the furthest Throw possible). Action 2: If the Throw is successful, the Goblin can Run, pick up the ball, and make it into the end zone for a Touchdown! If the Throw is Inaccurate, the Goblin needs to make a Stand Up action. Action 3: After Stand Up, the Goblin can Run the ball in on Action 3. Probability of Success: 0.667 (i.e. 2/3) Expected Points: 2.667 Provided all of the assumptions are satisfied, the probability of success is 2/3, as all that needs to be done is an Inaccurate Throw (roll of 3, 4, or 5) or successful completion (roll of 6) of the Goblin. 27Pe Action 1: The Troll must Long Throw a Goblin onto the ball. As long as the Goblin is not eaten, the Goblin will land upon the ball and scatter it. The resulting scatter must be towards the opposing end zone. Action 2: successful, If the Throw is the Goblin can Run, pick up the ball, and make it inte the end zone for a Touchdown! Tf an Inaccurate Throw, the Goblin 77] needs to make a Stand Up action. Action 3: If the Throw during Action 1 is Inaccurate, then the Goblin, after making a Stand Up action for Action 2, can Run the ball in, Probability of Success: 1.000 0.250 (i.e. 1/4) Expected Points: Provided all of the assumptions are satisfied, the probability of success is (3/8) (2/3) = 1/4, There is @ 2/3 probability of an Inaccurate Throw or successful completion, and a 3/8 probability of a favorable ball scatter. 288 Clean Sweep! | Unassisted Edition or: Anything you can do, I can do better! Blitz Bow! Je: wes are transient and fledgling in nature, as most are run by disorganized, smanaged, and corrupt organizations. Some teams are known to invite the services of the occasional Star Player - wally a solid, but not too well-known ro: player from a Blood Bowl team ~ who masquerades as a Blitz Bowl neophyte. The motivation behind this charade is usually gh ne of financial gain th. ntermediaries placing large bets within the underworld betting market hhen one of these Star Players emerges from the dugout onto the pitch, the game can turn upside-down quickly, as the gulf in talent is inmense between a player of Blood Row! caliber and one of a typical podunk team o The goal of this scenario is to find the highest-scoring turn (not the turn with the highest expected value) in wich a single player does it all: claiming all three Challenge cards and scoring a Touchdown. iNo-Hodsane cards available, no Bonus cards in band Challenge cards Available: Break Some Bones! [3 points] Nake a Risky Throw! [2 points] | Get The all! [1 points] There are many combinations to reach the same amount of total points (22 points), but this may be the most creative solution, though not necessarily the scenario with the highest probability of success. This scenario uses the best player of the Necromantic: the Werewolf. The defensive team is the Noble given that they have prototypic Lineman (6/1/4+/4+ Base Statistics) . 29The Werewolf, possessing the ball, makes a Block action against the Noble Lineman, breaking the Lineman’ s Armor 4+ and claiming Break Some Bones [3 points]. Action 2: Werewolf makes a Long Throw (5+) to the Wraith. Upon a completion, claim Make A Risky Throw! [2 points]. As the Wraith handling skills, the has no ba ball scatters. Action 3: Run with the Werewolf to the end zone, picking up the ball along the wall. Score Get The Ball [1 point] and a Touchdown [4 points]. overall, this turn scores 3 +2 + (1 + 2+ 4) = 12 points. Probability of success: 0.133 The Werewolf, with the Claws ability, defeats Armor 4+ at a rate of 0.398, and he completes the Throw with probability 0.333. overall, the probability of success is 0.398 * 0,333 = 0,133. 309. Clean Sweep! | Moving Edition or: Run, Treeman, run! “Move the ball, ya loser,” hollers the Ogre Coach. The Ogre lumbers forward, the rock-ball a mere pebble held fast within his grasp. Everyone in the stadium, and probably even the Ogre himself if he noticed at all, is shocked at the display, for never before has a creature so really stupid as an Ogre mustered the brainpower to follow their Coach’s conmand the first time around. 9 Of the default 24 Challenge cards, there are many potential Challenge cards that can involve a Move action, and theze are many easy combinations of claiming three Moving-type Challenge cards, often with 100% likelihood (e.g. Get Together!, Spread out!, and Get Moving!). However, rather than target the combination with the highest expected points, these Clean Sweep! analyses will cover the scenario in which the highest-valued Clean Sweep! can be scored. For Clean Sweep | Moving Edition, non-Endgame Clean Sweeps! are first considered before moving on to including Endgame Challenge cards. 1. No Endgare cards available, no Bonus cards in hand Challenge cards Available: Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point] Spread Out! [1 points] | Get Moving! [2 points] The pitch state involves control of the ball with a player, and then having two other players adjacent to the central trapdoor in the middle of the pitch. 31The success of this setup requires speedy players, so Wood Elf (Catcher ~ Move 8, Wardancer - Move 8) would be ideal. Action 1: Run the Lineman into the end zone to claim a Touchdown [4 points] and Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point]. If a Multi-ball occurs (0.500 probability), then resolve the effect. Action 2: Run the Wardancer, picking up a new ball en route to the end zone for Spread out! {1 point} and a Touchdown [4 points]. Action 3: Run the Catcher, with ball to end zone for Get Moving! (2 points], a Touchdown 4 points], and a Clean Sweep! (2 points). Overall, this turn will have scored a total of (241) 4 (444) + (2444 2) = 18 points. Probability of success: 0.383 The probability of success depends on if a Multi-ball triggers (0.500 probability), and if the triggered balls have favorable bounces from the central trapdoor. With two Move 8 players, a bounce to only one square will result in failure to score during subsequent actions; with two ball bounces to resolve, success would occur with (7/8)? = 49/64 0.765 probability. Therefore, the overall probability of success is 0.500(0.765) = 0.383 322. Endgame cards available, no Bonus cards in hand For the optimal scenario with Endgame cards, Go Deep! [2 points] replaces Spread Out! [1 point]. Challenge cards Available: Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point] Go Deep! [2 points] | Get Moving! [2 points] The only difference in player setup between this scenario and the previous one is that there needs to be a fourth player that is both Open and within three squares of the far end zone. Action 1: Run the Lineman with the ball inte the end zone to claim a Touchdown [4 points] and Showboat For ‘The Crowd! [1 point]. Since the game has reached the Endgame, both Coaches will know that the back of the remaining Showboat For The Crowd! is Multi-ball; upon triggering the Multi-ball, resolve the two new balls in play. Action 2: Run the Wardancer, picking up the ball en route to the end zone to claim Go Deep! {2 point) and a Touchdown [4 points]. 33Action 3: Run the Catcher, picking up the ball en route to the end zone to claim Get Moving! [2 points], a Touchdown [4 points], and a Clean Sweep! [2 point: Overall, this turn will have scored a total of (2+ 1) + (4+ 2) + (24 44 2) = 19 points. Probability of success: 0.765 The probability of success depends solely on the bounce of the two new balls in play upon triggering the Multi-ball event. 3410. Clean Sweep! | Blocking Edition or: Once you knock ‘em down, step on ‘em for good measure. “smash, smash, kerrunch!” grunts the Big Un Blocker as he traps a Halfling Hopeful in the corner of the pitch. The latter player, who had only a few moments earlier been extra-hopeful in believing that he'd receive a contract to join the famed Greenfield Grasshoppers upon the game's conclusion, now has a sinking feelin that permeates his entire being and roots him to the spot dike a statue. What he feels is not hope: it ig complete and utter hopelessness. o Of the default 24 Challenge cards, there are several examples of Bash-style Blocking Challenge cards: Free Up The Ball! (x2), Take Them Down! (x2), Gang Up! (x2), and Break Some Bones! (x2). Of these, Break Some Bones! [3 points] is worth the most, and therefore, the perfect Blocking Clean Sweep needs to Lavolve both Break Some Bones! Cazds. Two teams, Black Ore and the Lizardmen, are best for the Clean Sweep | Blocking Edition as they have three players each with Block 2. Endgame Challenge cards offer Cause Some Carnage (x2) points] that can also be considered for a Blocking Clean Ss cep. Let's address each scenario in turn: 1No Endgame cards available, no Bonus cards in hand Challenge cards Available: Gang Up! [2 point] Break Some Bones! (3 points] | Break Some Bones! (3 points] In this scenario, three of the players must make Assisted Block actions to claim all three Challenge cards. In addition, there is a 0.500 probability of an Inspiration in the back of Gang Up!, so it is even possible to score a Touchdown with the fourth action. However, that possibility is too “Dashy” to entertain for these Bash players, so let’s discount usage of a potential Inspiration Bonus Play card. 35Assume that the three Block 2 players are all in one line directly facing three opposing players. Action 1: Assisted Block (3 Bleck dice) with Player 1 to claim Gang Up! [2 points) upon a knock down result. Action 2: Assisted Block (3 Block dice) with Player 2 to claim Break Some Bones! [3 points] upon an Injury result. Action 2: Assist Blocked (3 Block dice) with Player 3 to claim Break Some Bones! [3 points] upon an Injury result. Claim a Blocking version of a Clean Sweep! [2 points]. Overall, this turn will have scored a total of 2+ 3+ (3 +2) = 10 points. Probability of success: 0.226 (Open field, 4+ Armor opponents) 0.321 (Against obstacle, 4+ Armor opponents) Against normal 4+ Armor players in the Open field, from the Blocking Probability Tables, with 3 Block dice there is 0.875 probability of knock down and 0.508 probability of Injury pez Block 3 action. 36Therefore, the probability of success in the Open field is the following: (0.875) (0.508) (0.508) 0.226 Tf all of the opposing 4+ Armored players had their backs against obstacles, then from the Blocking Probability Tables find that with 3 Block dice there is a 0.995 probability of knock down and 0.568 probability of Injury. Therefore, the probability of success against obstacles is the following: (0.995) (0.568) (0.568) = 0.321 372. Endgame cards available, no Bonus cards in hand The same pitch setup applies as above. Challenge cards Available: Cause Some Carnage! [3 point] Break Some Bones! [3 points] | Break Some Bones! [3 points] Exactly the same setup as the first scenario, but this turn involves three Assisted Block actions against 4+ Armored players, and all three actions must end in Injury. Overall, this turn will have scored a total of 3+ 3 + (3 + 2) = 11 points. Probability of success: 0,131 (Open field, 4+ Armor opponents) 0.183 (Against obstacle, 4+ Armor opponents) Using the same Probability Tables as above, find that the probability of three Open-field Injuries against 4+ Armor players is (0.508) (0.508) (0.508) = 0.131 Note that with 3 Block dice, it is easier to Block to Injure (0.508 probability) as opposed to Foul to Injure (0.500 probability). With three Blocks against obstacles, the probability of three consecutive Injuries against 4+ Armor players is (0.568) (0.568) (0.568) = 0.183. If that happened to the author's team in the span of a single turn, he would probably concede! 3811. Clean Sweep! | Throwing Edition Or: Showboating Elf team showboating again, I “Throw, throw, throw,” comes the chanting from the Elf Coach, the crowd, and even some of the opposing players in the dugout who want to see firsthand some top-end ELf arm talent. With @ Blitzer bearing down upon him, the Elf Thrower is unfazed. fie first brushes @ lock of his hair back into its rightful place. hen, with absolute confidence, he scans the field, accesses his options, and Jets loose the ball. 9 io Endgane cards available, no Bonus cards in hand The highest possible scoring Clean Sweep | Throwing Edition involves the Elf Union team, who are better throwers than their Wood Blf brethren. Challenge cards Available: Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point] Show Us A Completion! [1 point] | Make A Risky Throw! [2 points] In the ideal setup, an E1f Union Lineman has the ball near the epposing end zone. Another two Linemen are Open in the end zone. There is a Catcher that is Open near the central trapdoor. Finally, the Elf Union Thrower and Blitzer are Open adjacent to the central trapdoor. Seoaing Sess cetoner's Tastincts Specialise 39Action 1: The Lineman makes a Short Throw [4+] to one of the open Lineman in the end zone to score a Touchdown [4 points], claiming Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point]. The Bonus Play card is revealed to be a Multi-ball. The two new balls must bounce directly to the Elf Union Thrower and the Blitzer. Action 2: The Blitzer makes @ Short Throw [3+] to the Catcher, claiming Show Us A Completion! [1 point]. The Catcher then uses the Catcher’s instinct skill to Run ball in for a Touchdown [4 points]. Action 3: The Elf Union Thrower makes a Risky Throw [3+] to the Open Lineman to claim Make A Risky Throw! [2 points] as well as a Clean Sweep! [2 points] and a Touchdown [4 points]. Overall, this turn will have scored a total of (44 4 (+4) + 2424 4) = 18 points. Probability of Success: 0.0035 (i.e. 1/288) The probability of success is quite low. First, there is a 0.500 probability of a completed Short Throw from the Lineman with the ball to the Open Lineman to score the first Touchdown, followed by a 0.500 probability to get the Multi-ball Bonus Card. Upon triggering the Multi-ball Bonus card, there is only a (2/8) (1/8) = 1/32 probability that both the Thrower and the Blitzer will have the ball bounced to them. 40Finally, during Action 2 and Action 3, the Blitzer and the Thrower must make a Short Throw [3+] and a Risky Tarow [3+], respectively, both of which occur independently with 0.667 probabilities. Therefore, the combined probability of success is (1/2) (1/2) (1/32) (2/3) (2/3) = 4/1152 = 1/288 = 0.0035 2. Endgame cards available, no Bonus cards in hand With the Endgame deck as an option, replace Show Us A Completion! [1 point] and Make A Risky Throw! [2 points] with two Show Off A Little! [3 points] Challenge cards. Challenge cards Available: Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point] Show Off A Little! [3 points] | Show Off A Little! [3 points] otherwise, the setup is very similar to the previous scenario, except that the Elf Union Catcher should also be Open in the end zone. Action 1: The Lineman makes a Short Throw [4+] to one of the Open Lineman in the end zone to score a Touchdown [4 points] and claim Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point]. The Bonus card is revealed to be a Multi-ball, which triggers Immediately. Both balls must bounce directly to the Elf Union Thrower and the Blitzer. 41Action 2: The Blitzer makes a Risky Throw [3+] to the Catcher, claiming Show Off A Little! [3 points] and a Touchdown [4 points]. Action 3: The Elf Union Thrower makes a Risky Throw [3+] to the remaining Open Lineman to claim Show Off A Little! [3 points] as well as a Clean Sweep! [2 points] and another Touchdown [4 points]. overall, this turn will have scored a total of (1+ 4) + (3 +4) + (242 4 4) = 21 points. Probability of Success: 0.0052 (i.e. 1/192) Going action by action, the first hurdle is the 0.500 probability of a completed Short Throw from the Lineman with the ball to the Open Lineman to score the first Touchdown. That the back of Showboat For A Crowd! is a Multi-ball should be known by both Coaches given that it is the only one of those cards remaining. Same as the situation before, there is 1/32 probability that both the Vhrower and the Blitzer will have the ball bounced to them when the Multi-ball effect is resolved. Finally, for Actions 2 and 3, the Blitzer and the Thrower must complete Risky Throws at 4+ and 3+ rolls, respectively. Therefore, the combined probability of success is (1/2) (1/32) (1/2) (2/3) = 2/384 = 1/192 = 0.0052 4212. Clean Sweep! | A Bit of Everything Edition or: A dash of this and toss in a bash of that. The team can do nothing wrong. Blocks are carried out with brutal efficiency. Throws are accurate and all passes are caught. Ball carriers dodge and siip opposing players’ attempts to tackle with surprising ease. All in all, the whole team is playing the game as if their lives depended on it. Which, of course, they do, for the losing team is to be eaten immediately after the final whistle blows. o “A Bit of Everything” refers to a Clean Sweep! that involves a Move action, a Block action, and a Throw action, not necessarily in that order. Of all the teams in the Blitz Bowl League, the Elf Union squad has the best chance of pulling off these incredible scenarios. 1. No Endgame cards available, no Bonus cards in hand Challenge cards Available: Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point] Get Together! [1 point] | Break Some Bones! [2 points] Specialise Specialise In the optimal setup, the £1£ Union Thrower has the ball close to the opposing end zone. There is an Open Elf Lineman standing in the far end zone. The E1f Union Blitzer and another Lineman are marking a player who is located in the corner of the end zone. Finally, the Elf Union Catcher is Open and standing one square shy of the central trapdoor. Depicted on defense is the Noble team as they have standard Armor 4+ Linemen. 43Action 1: The Thrower makes a Short Throw [2+] to the Open Lineman in the end zone to score a Touchdown [4 points] and claim Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point]. The Bonus card is revealed to be a Multi-ball, which triggers immediately. Action 2 The Catcher makes a Run, picking up one of the new balls along the way to scoring; he ends up adjacent to the Blitzer and the Lineman, claiming Get Together! [1 point] and a Touchdown [4 points]. Action 3: Finally, the Elf Blitzer makes an Assisted Block, with re-roll, against the opposing player. If Injured, claim Break Sone Bones! [3 points] and the Clean Sweep! [2 points]. Overall, this turn will have scored a total of (241) 4 (2 +4) + (4 2) = 15 points. Probability of Success: 0.216 During Action 1, the Thrower must complete a Short Throw [2+] with 0.867 probability, followed by the Multi-ball Bonus card being revealed after claiming Showboat For The Crowd! (0.500 probability). Since the Elf Catcher has Move 8, there is a 6/8 chance of a favorable bounce per ball, and a (1-(2/8)*) = 15/16 = 0.9375 probability that one ball will land favorably. 44From the Block Probability Tables, an Assisted Block by an Offensive Specialist leads to an Injury result against Armor 4+ at a rate of 0.552. Therefore, the combined probability of success is (0.867) (0.500) (0.9375) (0.552) = 0.216 L_Enduame cards available, no Bonus cards in hand With the Endgame cards available to claim, replace Get Together! [1 point] with Go Deep! [2 points]. Challenge cards Available: Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point] Go Deep! [2 points] | Break Some Bones! [2 points] The same pitch setup for this scenario, along with the same three actions, albeit in different order. Action 1: The Thrower makes a Short Throw [2+] to the Open Lineman in the end zone to score a Touchdown [4 points] and also claim Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point]. The Bonus card is revealed to be a Multi-ball, which triggers immediately. Action 2: The Elf Blitzer makes an Assisted Block against the opposing player. If Injured, claim Break Some Bones! [3 points]! Action 3: The Catcher makes a Run action, picking up one of the new balls along the way, en route to the end zone; the Catcher ends Open, along with the now-Open Blitzer and Lineman, thus claiming Go Deep! [2 points], a second Touchdown [4 points], and Clean Sweep! [2 points]. Overall, this turn will have scored a total of (241) 434 (2 +4 + 2) = 16 points. Probability ef Success: 0.432 45During Action 1, the Thrower must complete a Short Throw [2+] with 0.867 probability, followed by the Multi-ball Bonus card being revealed with 1.000 probability. Since the Blf Catcher has Move 8, there is a 6/8 chance of a favorable bounce per ball, and a (1-(2/8)*) = 15/16 = 0.9375 probability that one ball will land favorably. From the Block Probability Tables, an Offensive Specialist with Assisted Block produces an Injury result against Armor 4+ at a rate of 0.552. Therefore, the combined probability of success is (0.867) (0.9375) (0.552) = 0.432 4613. Absolute Maximum Points in a Turn Or: Show mercy? No, I don’ think I know the meanin’ of that word! Usually, when one team is completely dominating the other, the crowd begins to jeer and toss debris and empty Bloodweiser bottles at the heads of the losing team’s players. On rare occasions, however, it is & the losing team’s fault for the lopsided score, but rather the sheer brilliance of the other team for playing a game of Blitz Bowl at the highest level. 9 There are a few scenarios to cover to address the question of “What is the maximum amount of points that one could score in a turn?” 1. No Endgame cards visible, no Bonus Play cards in hand 2. No Endgame cards visible, Bonus Play cards in hand 3. Endgame cards visible, Bonus cards in hand Let's address each of these scenarios in turn 1. No Endgame cards available, no Bonus Play cards in hand Challenge cards Available: Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point] Make A Risky Throw! [2 points] | Get Moving! [2 points] The best team Lo complete Lhe Clean Sweep is Lhe Wood £1f. In this scenario, the Wood E1f Lineman has possession of the ball. Two of the players (Thrower, Wardancer) are Open adjacent to the central trapdoor. Another player, the Wood Elf Catcher, is Open as well. 47Action 1: The Wood Elf Lineman Runs the ball into the end zone to score a Touchdown [4 points] and claim Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point]. The Bonus card is revealed to be a Multi-ball, which triggers immediately. One of the two balls must bounce to either the Thrower or Wardancer. Action 2: With the ball, the Thrower makes a Risky Tarow to the Catcher who makes a free Run action, claiming Make A Risky Throw [2 points] and a second Touchdown [4 points]. Action 3: The final participating player, the Wardancer, can then make @ Run action, picking up the ball and scoring a Touchdown [4 points]. Claim Get Moving! [2 points] as well as a Clean Sweep! [2 points]. Overall, this turn will have scored a total of (+ 4) + (2 + 4) + (4 424 2) = 19 points. Probability of Success: 0.0586 (i.e. 45/768) Assuming the pitch only has one central trapdoor, the Wardancer should be positioned one square short of that trapdoor. There is a 50-50 probability that there is a Multi-ball. When the Lineman triggers the Multi-ball, one of the balls must bounce to the Thrower (1 - (7/8))? 15/64 probability. 48Action 2 is successful upon a completed Risky Throw, which the Thrower makes with 0.667 probability, or 2/3 of the time. For Action 3, the Wardancer (Move 8) should be able to take the other ball to the end zone on a favorable bounce which occurs with ~6/8 probability. Therefore, the combined probability of success is (0.500) (15/64) (2/3) (6/8) = 45/768 = 0.0586 2. No Endgame cards available, Bonus Play cards in hand Challenge cards Available: Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point] Get Moving! [2 points] | Break Some Bones! [3 points] Bonus Cards in Hand: Inspiration | Sprint | Defensive Play Assuming all of the setup is in place, Wood Elf are best to complete this scenario successfully. in this scenario, a Lineman has possession of the ball. The Catcher and Wardancer are Open; assuming the pitch only has one central trapdoor, both the Wardancer (Move 8) and the Catcher (Move 8) should be positioned one square short of the trapdoor. Action 1: Lineman Runs the ball for a Touchdown [4 points] and claims Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point]. The Bonus card is revealed to be a Multi-ball, which triggers immediately. 49Action 2: Catcher Runs the first triggered ball into the end zone to claim a second Touchdown [4 points). Action 3: Wardancer uses their Rush ability to Run with the second triggered ball to the end zone, adjacent to an opposing player, to claim Get Moving! [2 points]. Action 4: Using Inspiration, Wardancer then Blocks the opposing player, injuring them to claim Break Some Bones! [3 points]. Score a third Touchdown [4 points] and the Clean Sweep! [2 points]. overall, this turn will have scored a total of (2+ 4) 44424 (3 +44 2) = 20 points. Probability of Success: 0.213 (Sprint, Defensive Play, vs. Armor 4+) ~0.163 (No Sprint, Defensive Play, vs. Armor 4+) ~0.107 (No Sprint, No Defensive Play, vs. Armor 4+) There is a 50-50 chance that the back of Showboat For A Crowd! is a Multi-ball. With the Sprint card, there is a near 100% likelihood that both players will be able to reach the end zone with a ball each. Without the Sprint card, there is approximately (7/8)? = 0.766 probability of success. The best option for the third Bonus Play card is Defensive Play, given the increased probability of an Injury result. If the Wardancer attempted the Block against a regular Armor 4+ player, the probability of injury with an open-field Block would be 0.278 without Defensive Play and 0.426 with Defensive Play. All in all, even with no cards, one has a > 0.20 probability of pulling off an amazing 20-point turn. 503._Endgame cards available, Bonus cards in hand The absolute highest points possible to he scored in one turn relies on using Endgame Challenge cards and having Bonus cards in hand. Challenge cards Available: Showboat For The Crowd! [1 point] Show Off A Little! [3 points] | Show Off A Little! [3 points] Bonus Cards in Hand: Leg Up | Accurate Throw | Inspiration The Elf Union team is the best to complete this scenario. _| Lineman 1 has possession of the Be ete sms | aii. Lineman 2, Lineman 3, and Bi cre |e 3s & & Sites | Catcher are all Open in the ce | opposing team end zone. Specialise Both the Elf Union Thrower and Blitzer are next to the trapdoor. Action 1: Lineman 1 makes a Short Throw (4+) to Lineman 2 in the end zone to score the first Touchdown [4 points], claim Showboat For The Crowd! 1 point], and score Leg Up [1 point]. 3y now, one can assume that both Coaches know the back of the remaining Showboat For The Crowd! is a Multi-ball, which triggers immediately. Both balls must bounce to your two Open Players, the Thrower and the Blitzer. 51Action 2: Use the Thrower to make a Risky Throw (3+) to Lineman 3 in the end zone to score the second Touchdown [4 points] and claim Show off A Little! [3 points]. Action 3: Use the Blitzer to make a Risky Throw (44) to the Catcher in the end zone to score the third Touchdown [4 points], claim Show Off A Little! [3 points], and pick up the Clean Sweep! Overall, this turn will have scored a total of (L444 41) 4 (4 +3) + (443 4 2) = 22 points. Probability of Success: ~0.126 (Accurate Throw, Inspiration) ~0.0087 (Accurate Throw, No Inspiration) ~0.0052 (No Accurate Throw, No Inspiration) Action 1 produces a successful completion (4+) with 0.500 probability. The probability increases to 0.866 with the Accurate Throw (2+) Bonus card. However, the most challenging aspect of this scenario is having both balls bouncing to the Open Blitzer and Thrower, (2/8) (1/8) = 1/32 = 0.0313 probability. which occurs with With Inspiration, the team can get away with only one of these bounces needing to reach the Blitzer/Thrower, as Inspiration allows for the remaining player to pick up the loose ball. Therefore, Inspiration will increase the probability to (1/32) + (31/32) (1-(6/8)*) = 0.455. Action 2 is successful with probability 0.667 and Action 3 is successful with probability 0.500 The impact of Inspiration is quite significant, raising the probability of success by a factor of more than 10! 5214. Blitz Bowl Team Value System or: No, that’s valued too high, and that’s valued too low! wheir reputation precedes them: quick and agile Chameleons and Skinks running alongside strong and durable Saurus Blockers with a monstrous Kroxigar keeping es at bay. The Lizardmen of the Old World have long possessed notoriety for their feroci a large reason for their y in the Blood Bowl League, excellence come from the high competition for each and every roster spot. While some Blood Bowl purists may scoff at Blitz Bowl players for their relative lack of name recognition (among casual Cabalvision viewers), true fanatics of the game know that in every Blitz Bowl game, particularly those among ultra mpetitive teams such as the Lizardnen, there may playing on the pitch the next Blood Bowl star in the making. At its core, Blitz Bowl is a game of action efficiency. Teams alternate taking turns, and on their own turn the team has three actions to allocate to one or more players. All players in Blitz Bowl have four core Base Statistics: Move, Block, Throw, and Armor. In addition, select players possess Abilities that augment (usually) one or more of the Base Statistics in some way. The road to victory is through maximizing action efficiency by targeting players’ strengths while preventing the opposing team from exposing players’ weaknesses. From this core philosophy of Blitz Bowl. strategy, a model of Team Value can be built up. sumption 1: Base Statistics (Move/Block/Throw/Armor) have different levels of impact upon the game. These four Base Statistics are directly associated with four action types (Run, Block, Throw, and Armor save, respectively). However, these events neither occur with equal frequency during the game, nor do they have the same impact on game outcome. 53In general, the Coach sees players making a Run action with more frequency than making a Block action or making an Armor save, and even more so than making a Throw action. The driving force behind these differences is that the goal of the game is not to make the most Blocks or the most Throws, but rather is to score the most points! Assumption 1.1: Challenge card Values and Touchdowns provide a useful Metric into assiqning the importance of each Base Statistic. To put it another way, if all of the Challenge cards depended on moving the ball, then the Move Base Statistic would be worth much, much more than the others. The key to determining the impact of each Base Statistic is through analyzing the Challenge card deck and the influence of Touchdowns. These are considerable (maybe dubious?) assumptions now made, but this perhaps is the most logical approach to weight Base Statistics. Assumption 1.2: For each Challenge card, the proportional impact of each Base Statistic can be determined For example, Show Us A Completion! is a purely Throw-based Challenge card, and Take Them Down! is a mostly Block-based Challenge card. Assumption 1.3: Armor is similar to Block, but it is preventative in nature. Not all Blocks lead to an opponent making an Armor save, so clearly the value of Block Statistic and Armor Statistic is not equivalent; for claiming most of the “Sash” Challenge cards, Block is the main skill of interest, while Armor only indirectly prevents the other team from claiming that card. For Bash cards such as Take Them Down! and Gang Up!, Armor provides influence indirectly; if a player tries to knock down a Big Un Blocker 54to claim Take Them Down!, the Coach is probably thinking “What if the Block results in a Miss or Push?” or “Sure, I knocked him down, but he will make the save, and during the Orc’s turn the Big Un Blocker will just stand and Injure my player.” Therefore, assign a lower impact to Armor (0.500) compared with Block for these types of cards. The value of 0.500 is subjective but it implies a 2:1 split in favor of Block's impact on claiming these cards. Moreover, Armor manifests itself in the game in ways beyond scoring Challenge card points (i.e. staying on the pitch), so this is a method, albeit subjective, of capturing some of that value to hedge the weight of Armor. Now, with Assumptions 1.2 and 1.3 in place, each of the 24 base Challenge cards in the game can be examined and Move/Block/Throw/Armor proportions by Impact can be assigned. Cards that are influenced by multiple Base Statistics are assigned a primary Statistic weight and a Secondary Statistic weight. Secondary Weights are given relative to that of the Primary Weight, at 0.800, 0.667, 0.500, and 0.200. One can note that these are equal to 0.444, 0.400, 0.333, and 0.167 of the overall weight. This is one of the more subjective core assumptions of the model, as the influence of each statistic in the claiming of Challenge cards can be seen quite differently by different Coaches. There are a total of 14 unique Challenge cards in the base game, and ge through each Challenge card in turn, giving the reasons for weighing the Impact of the Base Statistic. Get The Ball! (x2): Move 1.000 Claiming this card depends on movement as it is claimed via a Run. 55Geb Together!: Move 0.667 | Block 0.333 Claiming this card is through positioning players. Move speed has more importance than Block skill, but as the card can be claimed by a Mark action, there is a minority importance of Block (i.e. Mark to claim card to set up a Block action). Move The Ball! (x2): Move 1.000 Claiming this card depends on movement as it is claimed via a Run action, Showboat For The Crowd! (x2): Move 0.600 | Throw 0.200 | Block 0.200 Claiming this card relies mostly on a Run action to get to the end zone, though this can be done with a Throw action as well. A Block action plays a minor role as some Touchdowns zely on a Block action to spring a player free or knock down the opposing player in the end This is a complicated Challenge card to categorize, and it is the only one to which is assigned a Tertiary weight. Show Us A Completion (x2): Throw 1.000 Claiming this card is as simple as making a completion.. not so easy in game! Spread Out!: Move 1.000 Claiming this card involves making a Run or Sidestep action. Therefore, this card predominantly is based on the Move Base Statistic, with minimal Block influence. Get Moving! (x2): Move 0.833 | Armor 0.167 Claiming this card involves three Run actions. That there is an Armor component to this Challenge card is not intuitive; in practice, Armor makes a difference in how many players are on the pitch, Without three players on the pitch, claiming this card is impossible! 56Eree Up The Ball! (22): Block 0.667 | Armor 0.333 Claiming this card involves making a Block action. From Assumption 1.3, some Armor influence is assigned as well. Gang Up! (x2): Block 0.667 | Armor 0.333 Claiming this card involves making a Block action. From Assumption 1.3, some Armor influence is assigned as well. Make A Risky Throw!: Throw 1.000 Claiming this card involves making a Throw action. Show No Fear!: Move 0.556 | Block 0.444 Claiming this card necessitates that the player ends on a trapdoor square. In practice, this occurs more often with a Move action, though frequently a player will use a Mark action to land on the square before Blocking (potentially a combo for getting FUTB as well). Take Them Down! (x2): Block 0.667 | Armor 0.333 Claiming this card involves making a Block action. From Assumption 1.3, some Armor influence is assigned as well. Tie Them Up! (x2): Block 0.600 | Move 0.400 Claiming this card involves making at least one Mark action. This card relates directly to the positioning of players. At first, this appeared to be more of a Move-related card, as sometimes a player must make a long Run to Mark the opponent, but with at least five players between the two teams tied up as a consequence of claiming this card, this card really sets up a whole lot of Bashing. 87Break Some Bones! (x2): Armor 0.667 | Claiming this card involves the opponent failing an Armor save. Some Bones! Armor prevention, Bash cards. Statistic. Block, in this Block 0.333 has an indirect role via Below is the Challenge Card Summary Table of these assumptions: card title: Prisaty secondary Break is the only card in the base deck that directly relates to analogous to the logic for Armor’s role claiming the other Statistic | statistic oe BK " AOR ent soostbeci| 7 sive sic Sie as S368 see =e we | soewsiaen | 0.667 ovceo e.ze0 ovze0 see eee]: woe 00 9.090 1.908 — oe 2 ‘BLOCK ARMOR 0500 9.090 0.667 0.000 0.338 — 2 BLOCK ARMOR 0.500 0.667 ‘ana vo z aise a ase wees aoa 2 2 susce aan 500 © er 2 ‘NORE 9.000 9.000 9.000 1.000 9.900 Fe tee BITE Saaz eee aia Tie then sot] 2 = owe eee : 58Assumption 1.4; Touchdowns are a weight-modifier for the Base Statistics. Touchdowns, while primarily a “Dash” result, also contribute significantly to the final score of a Blitz Bowl game. From the author’s logged data of 87 games, all played with Endgame cards in place, there have been 369 Touchdowns scored, and 4259 total points. As each Touchdown is worth four points, Touchdowns comprise 1476/4259 or ~34.7% of all points. This model is built with assumptions concerning the base Challenge card deck, and not on the Endgame deck, but an assumption is made that the percentage of total points via Touchdowns is approximately the same with and without the Endgame deck. Now, all this game data are solely from games in which the author's gaming group has played, which lacks external generalizability, but it is the best estimate that can be used for the model in absence of other data. For simplicity, round off to 33.3%, or 1/3 of total points in a game. As the Base Challenge card deck is worth 40 points, Touchdowns, on average, are assigned to be worth 20 points of impact over the course of @ game. Then, a Touchdown can he broken down using the same assumptions as for scoring the Showboat For A Crowd! card: primarily a Move result, but with contributions from Throw and Block: 0.600/0.200/0.200/0.000 breakdown. Adjusting each of the four Base Statistics by Touchdowns yields the TD-adjusted Impact for each Base Statistic, which is normalized to the least impactful statistic (Throw). 59Thus, the normalized Base Impact for each of four Base Statistics is as follows: 2.97/2.15/1.00/1.03 for Move/Block/Throw/Armor, as seen in the following Base Statistic Impact Table: seariecia | 'aRE.® | chattenge cards| to-adjusted | Normalized ds | vetsneed impact | impact sapact epee weve 2 ano 249 2.8 on 3 “a toe OR 10 2 z Ex} 5 ratio in the These normalized Base Impacts imply a roughly influence of each Base Statistic, respectively, over the course of a game. Model Concessions: The medel does not take inte account the effects of he Bonus Play cards, Fouls, or Endgame Cards For example, getting the Sprint card would temporarily increase the impact of the Move Statistic, but this is not built into the model. Fouls are independent of Armor Base Statistic, and they are not. accounted for in the claiming of Break Some Bones! In the Endgame, six Endgame cards are selected from 16 with point values ranging from zero to three points. Given the variability of selection, Endgame cards are not directly included in the analysis, especially as many Coaches do without them in their games. Now, after determining the Impacts of the four Base Statistics, Player values can then be addressed. 60normalized to that of the “Prototypic” non-skilled player. It is most useful to start with an average player that represents a boring old “Lineman” with the following Base Statistic! Move: 6 Block: 1 Throw: 4+ Armor: 4+ Furthermore, each of these Base Statistics are weighted with the Impact factors previously determined via the Challenge card dec Move: 2.97 Block: 2.18 Throw: 1.00 Armor: 1.03 Assumption 3: The Base Statistics and Impacts of all plavers can be noxmalized to that of the “Prototypic” non-skilled player. To keep things simple, Base Statistics of the Prototypic player can be normalized from 6/1/4+/4+ to 1/1/1/1. To calculate Player Value, multiply each Base Statist. by its respective Base Impact and then sum the four subtotals to find the raw total. After finding the raw total, normalize to a value of 100 for the Prototypic player, which is termed the Prototypic Player value. Assumption 4: Variations from the Prototypic Base Statistics directly ter the value * se Statia! As an example, a player with Block 2 should certainly have a greater normalized Block than Block 1, but how should that be modeled? These are the assumplions for each Base Stalisti 2 we Base Statis culatio: To model Move Base Statistic, divide the player's Move by that of t Prototypic Plays er: 6. For example, in the case of a player with Move 7, the normalized Move Base Statistic is 1.167 (i.e. 7/6). su : ock Base § tic Ca 01 To model ni dive is needed. The goal of a Block is to knock down the opposing player and potentially njure them. An Injury is superior to the knock down as it removes the 61opposing player from the pitch entirely, thereby not only costing the opponent an action to bring an analogous player back in the game, but also requiring additional actions to move that player to an impactful square. Moreover, with only a knock down result, the Prone opponent can then Stand Up on the next turn and make a Block against one’s own player. Thus, for the model, Injury is weighted more than that of a knockdown result, at 2:1. The rate of Injuries depends on the Armor of the opposing player. For all Injury calculations, the model uses the Armor of the Prototypic player (Armor 4+). To further complicate matters, the success rate of knock downs and Injuries depends on if the target is in the open field or adjacent to an obstacle. For example, a Block 1 player is successful at knocking down an opponent in the open field with probability 0.500, a probability that rises to 0.833 when Blocking against an obstacle. For the model, the frequency of open-field Blocks and against-obstacle Blocks is weighed at 1:1. Normalizing the final probability of success to that of the Prototypic Block 1 player yields the normalized Block Base Statistic Therefore, as an example, calculate the normalized Block Base Statistic for a player with Block 2. The probabilities of knockdowns and cracking Armor 4+ are found in the probability tables. Prone 4 2 Pryor en Proorm 3 Pigoros Norm. Block Base Statistic », P, 4 A Pcowae 4 2 Fauwatery ‘KD, Wall, Bt 3 Po Wall. B1 1 (40750, 2.0426 , 1.0972 , 2 0537 2G os00 ty o27e +a oma + aoa) = 1-358. Where KD = knock down, Inj = Injury, OF = Open Field, Wall = Obstacle, Bl = Block 1, and B2 = Block 2 62Model Concession: The model does not take into account frequency of assisted Blocks The frequency of assisted Blocks is not taken into account in the model, though these certainly play a role. Rather, the against-obstacle Block frequency is used as an ersata stand-in for Assisted Block, against-obstacle Block, and against-obstacle Assisted Block. The reasoning is that this reduces the number of stacked subjective frequency assumptions on the Block action. Assumption 4.3: Normalized Throw Base Statistic Calculation Over the course of the game, both Short Throws and Risky Throws (Long Throw or Obstructed Throw) are attempted. While there are no definite numbers on the proportion of Short versus Risky Throw, and though the actual ratio differs between teams, an assumption is made that short Throws are attempted at a 2:1 rate compared with Long Throws. Therefore, to calculate normalized Throw Base Statistic, divide the player's probability of a successful frequency-weighted Short/Risky Whrow by that of the Prototypic 4+ Throw player. Analogous to the Block calculations, the Throw ca. lations will make use of the Throw Probability Tables. As an example, take a Throw 2+ player and compare with the Prototypic Throw 4+ player. Norm. Throw Base Statistic = 0.667 3 0333 0.833 3 0.500 + = 1.778. Where ST = Short Throw, RT = Risky Throw, T2 = Throw 2+, 4 = Throw 4+ Assumption 4.4: Normalized Armor Base Statistic Calculation To model normalized Armor Base Statistic, use the same reasoning as that of the Block Base calculation (Assumptions 4.2), but in reverse. As knock down rates are consistent regardless of Armor level, the 63calculation of normalized Armor Base Statistic only uses the Armor Injury Table. For Armor save, the assumption is that the rate of open-field Blocks and against-obstacle Blocks occur with 1:1 frequency. An example calculation would be with a player of Armor 2+ compared with the Prototype player with Armor 4+. As lower probabilities are better in this case, the Prototype player Injury rate is put in the numerator and the comparative player's Injury rate is put in the denominator. sori 1 Pini oat Ping wall as Norm. Armor Base Statistic = + (ju + —fustebaty incorat Pina 1 po27e , ose + 2.583 2 Com + 0167 Where Inj = Injury, OF = Open Field, Wall = Obstacle, A2 = Armor 2+, and Ag = Armor 4+ The below summary table provides the Normalized Base Statistics for various Move, Block, Throw, and Armor values. Note that a Dé Move is modeled as a Move 3.5 Base Statistic. 64Now that the normalized Base Statistics is known for every player, it is time to address the concept of Game Impact. Assumption 5: Deviations from Prototype in Base Statistic manifest as Base Impact Modifiers. Game Impact is the influence on the game of the Base Statistic beyond what is listed on the card. For example, there is a significant gap in gameplay between a Move 5 player versus a Move 6 player that is larger than a simple 5 / 6 normalization. Likewise, a Block 2 player is used much more frequently than a Block 1 player for Bashing. To put it another way, through Assumption 1, the relative Impact of Move/Block/Throw/Armor is determined to be 2.97/2.15/1.00/1.03. As further examples: if a player has a Move speed greater than 6, then their Move Impact should increase in weight; if a player has an Armor of 5+, then their Armor Impact should decrease in weight. Note that these increases and decreases in weight do not affect the baseline denominator underlying the calculation of Player Value (Prototype player normalized to 100 value). So, if there is a God-tier player with statline 9/2/2+/2+, then all of their Imp. weights would jump up accordingly with their Player Value. Next, Base Impact Modifiers can be divided inte positive and negative categories. Assumption 5.1: Assignment of Positive Impact Modifiers Categories of Positive Impact Modifiers can be created based on the extent of positive deviation from the Prototype Base Statistics. These categories are Minor Strength (+) and Major Strength (++) Modifiers. In terms of weighting, a + Mod. has an Impact weight of 1.250 (i.e. 5/4) and a ++ Mod. has an Impact weight of 1.500 (i.e. 6/4) in the respective statistical category. 65Likewise, statistics deviating worse than the Prototype can be assigned Negative Impact Modifiers with several categories: Minor Weakness ) Extra-Major Weakness (---) Modifiers, Supe: tra-Major Weakness ) Modifiers, and Nerf-rt ( ) Modifiers In terms of ighting, a - Mod. has an Imp. t weig! of 0. 4/3), a -- Mod. has an Impact weig! of 0.667 (i.e. 4/6), has an Impact weight of 0.500 (ive. 3/6), 2 ~ weight of 0.333 (i.e. 1/3), anda - Mod. has an Impact 0.167 (i.e. 1/6) in the respective statistical category The fo. ing are Positive and Negative Impact Modifier Tables, along with the overall Base Impact Modifier Table. Move Impact Move Impact « Impact throw impact cry 0 Throw impact cheow 0.667 Threw imcact Move Impact Note that the Pump gon's Move of D6 (expected Move 3.5) is modeled as a Move 3.5 for modifier, with equal-neigh Move 1 - 6 for the Move Impact modifier.Also, a non-Throwing player (Throw -) not only has a zero Throw Value, but the lack of Throw also imparts a stacked -- Move Impact modifier. This is because non-Throw means the player cannot pick up the ball, claim certain Dash-related Challenge cards, oz score a Touchdown. From the table, one can note that the Impact Modifiers are especially harsh on Move values less than five and Armor values greater than four. Using the Prototypic Player Value of 100, measure deviations from the 6/1/4+/4+ statline that lead to changes in Player Value, presented in the Base Statistic ~ Player Value Change Table. The best Move, Block, Throw, and Armor values in Blitz Bowl are 9, 3, 2+, and 2+, respectively; these Base Statistics provide +36.3, +38.7, 423.3, and +32.2 to their respective Base Values compared to those of the Prototypic player. 671 WA zi 423.3 32.2 3 40.3 H1.6 4 +0. 5 “1.2 6 10.4 z n/a 8 N/m s N/a = (armor) = (throw) Recall that Throw ) also imparts a -~ Move Impact as well! Assumption 5: Player Abilities on Base Statistic and Base Impact Use the same +/- system when assigning Base Statistic Modifiers and Base Impact Modifiers secondary to Player Abilities. These modifiers stack upon the player’s modifiers of their respective Base Statistics. I will go through each Ability in turn and cover my assumptions regarding its in-game effects, skipping its description unless it is a Homebrew ability. After every several abilities, a summary chart is included for convenience. Bomber: + Block Impact Uhis ability increases the frequency by which the player uses the Block action. It does not increase Block strength, so the Base Statistic Modifier is unchanged. Bash skill. Catcher's Instinet: + Move Impact This ability provides an indirect free action in that the free action is a result of another player's successful Throw. The impact on the game, however, is an increased frequency of movement for this player. Dash skill. 68