Is this the 'Big Himalayan Quake' we feared?

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This story is from April 26, 2015

Chidanand Rajghatta / TNN / Updated: Apr 26, 2015, 06:59 IST

Everyone knew it was coming. The Big Himalayan Quake has been predicted for
years. There’s hardly been a conference or convention of seismologists or geo-
physicists that hasn’t discussed the imminence of an earthquake in the Himalayan
belt, where an active Indian tectonic plate is said to be pushing up against the
Tibetan tectonic plate at upwards of 4cm a year, considering a breakneck speed in
geological terms.

''Once you have been in an earthquake you know, even if you survive without a
scratch, that like a stroke in the heart, it remains in the earth's breast, horribly
potential, always promising to return, to hit you again, with an even more
devastating force. ''
Salman Rushdie, The Ground Beneath Her Feet
WASHINGTON: Everyone knew it was coming. The Big Himalayan Quake has been
predicted for years. There’s hardly been a conference or convention of
seismologists or geo-physicists that hasn’t discussed the imminence of an
earthquake in the Himalayan belt, where an active Indian tectonic plate is said to
be pushing up against the Tibetan tectonic plate at upwards of 4cm a year,
considering a breakneck speed in geological terms.
As recently as February this year, different groups of earthquake experts raised the
red flag for the region that includes the entire Gangetic plain in India. C P
Rajendran, a senior associate with the Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced
Scientific Research, Kushala Rajendran, an associate professor at the Centre for
Earth Sciences (CEaS), Indian Institute of Science, and Biju John from the National
Institute of Rock Mechanics, who have been researching for years in the region,
warned that a natural calamity is long overdue.
In a study published in the journal Nature Geoscience a few months earlier, a
research team led by Nanyang Technological University (NTU) predicted on the
basis of ground scars left by previous devastating quakes in the region that quakes
of the same magnitude could happen again, especially in areas which have yet to
have their surface broken by a temblor. Similar studies in the US and Europe have
also forecast the Big One.
READ ALSO: 'Another crisis will hit Nepal capital today – sanitation’
The small problem: No one has been able to pinpoint the precise area and timing
of the temblor.
As the dust settles on the debris and the bodies counted, the big question facing
geophysicists is whether this is the Big One or is there more, or worse, a bigger one,
in store: No one knows for sure; scientists are still sizing up the data. But short of
precise forecasting, even Charles Richter, after whom the measurement of a
quake’s magnitude is named, suggested other areas of human action to contain the
damage and death toll.
Foremost among them is the quality of building construction, which many experts
have said needs to be compliant with earthquake resistance metrics. Ranked the
world’s most ‘at-risk’ city for earthquakes by GeoHazards International (GHI),
Kathmandu has been grappling with this for years. But as is typical in the sub-
continent – Delhi take note – it has been a losing battle.
READ ALSO: Experts gathered in Nepal a week ago to ready for earthquake
The Nepalese capital adds over 3,000 non-engineered houses every year, according
to the Nepal Risk Reduction Consortium (NRRC), a body comprised of government
agencies, donors, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and
representatives of the United Nations, whose coordinator Moira Reddick, known as
the ''Earthquake Lady,'' has been campaigning ceaselessly to address this issue.
On Saturday, friends of Reddick were praying for her well-being, recalling a piece
she was quoted in on NPR headlined ''Please Don't Let An Earthquake Hit When I'm
In The Shower.''
''Personally, I’m terrified. I’ve worked in the aftermath of some of the world’s
biggest earthquakes – Haiti, Bam, Kashmir and Gujarat – but this is going to be far
worse,'' Reddick had cautioned. “It gives me nightmares. I have a disaster
preparedness kit at the bottom of my garden – a shovel to dig people out, water,
tinned food, a battery radio and so on. Other people think I’m crazy but I’m
envisaging that I might have to house 30 people in my garden.''
Turns out that people who ignored her might have been the ones who are crazy.
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