UNIVERSITY OF NEW ENGLAND

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 Question 1 (5 + 10 + 10 = 25 Mar ks)

Par t A (Please circle your answer)

(1) The method involving the collection, presentation, and characterization of a set of data in
order to properly describe the various features of that set of data is called
(a) scientific method
(b) statistical inference
(c) descriptive statistics
(d) none of the above

(2) The universe or "totality of items or things" under consideration is called

(a) a sample
(b) a statistic
(c) a population
(d) a parameter

(3) The portion of the universe that has been selected for analysis is called
(a) a sample
(b) a statistic
(c) a population
(d) a parameter

(4) A summary measure that is computed to describe a characteristic of an entire population is

called
(a) a census
(b) a statistic
(c) a parameter
(d) the scientific method

(5) A summary measure that is computed to describe a characteristic from only a sample of the
population is called
(a) a census
(b) a statistic
(c) the scientific method
(d) a parameter

Question 1 is continued on next page

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Part B

A new independent electricity provider, ABC Power, has implemented a house-to-house campaign to
encourage customers to shift to their company. On one day of door knocking seven staff reported the
following numbers of households that were persuaded to switch to ABC Power.

7 5 8 2 8 10 6

(a) Calculate the mean number of electricity provider changes per staff member employed
per day.

(b) Median: _____________________ Mode: _________________________

(c) Calculate the standard deviation.

(d) What does the Z-score measure? Using the information in (a) and (c), compute the Z-
score of 9.

Question 1 is continued on next page

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Part C
Identifying managers who are both talented and motivated is difficult. A human resources manager
assessed 112 staff and constructed a table with nine combinations of talent and motivation levels.
Talent
Motivation Level High Medium Low Total
High 6 18 6
Medium 21 35 6
Low 12 6 2
Total
(a) A managerial prospect with “high motivation” is an example of a simple event.

True or False (please circle).

(b) A managerial prospect with “high motivation” and “high talent” is an example of a
joint event.

True or False (please circle).

(c) Suppose the human resources manager has decided to hire a new manager, what is the
probability that the new manager
i. is in the high motivation category?

ii. is in the high talent category?

iii. is high in both categories?

iv. is medium in motivation given a manager high in talent has been selected?

(d) Are high motivation and high talent independent? Justify your answer.

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 Question 2 (5 + 10 +10 = 25 Marks)

Part A (Please circle your answer)

(1). The collection of all possible events is called

(a) a joint probability
(b) a sample space
(c) the null set
(d) a simple probability

(2). All the events in the sample space that are not part of the specified event are called
(a) the sample space
(b) the complement of the event
(c) joint events
(d) simple events

(3). A probability distribution

(a) associates a particular probability of occurrence with each outcome in the
sample space
(b) assigns a value to the variability in the sample space
(c) assigns a value to the centre of the sample space
(d) None of the above

(4). In a binomial distribution

(a) the results of one trial are dependent on the results of the other trials
(b) the random variable X is continuous
(c) the number of trials n must be at least 30
(d) the probability of success p is stable from trial to trial

(5). If two equally likely events A and B are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, what is
the probability that event A occurs?
(a) 0
(b) 0.50
(c) 1.00
(d) Cannot be determined from the information given

Question 2 is continued on next page

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Part B

Adrian sells cars for Honest Joe’s car dealership. Adrian has never sold more than three cars in a
given week. Given X is the number of cars sold by Adrian in a week, the probability distribution of X
is summarized in the following table:

X 0 1 2 3
P(X) p 0.45 0.25 0.05

(a) What is the probability of Adrian selling zero cars?

(b) What is the probability of Adrian selling at least two cars?

(c) What is the probability of Adrian selling no more than one car?

(d) Draw the probability distribution in a graphical form.

(e) Adrian gets paid a bonus of $500 if he sells one car per week. For each additional car
sold per week Adrian receives $300. Calculate his mean bonus.

Question 2 is continued on next page

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Par t C
Based on the records of Department of Immigration and Citizenship, the percentage of applicants
from the humanitarian stream program who failed the citizenship test is 16%. Consider 20 applicants
for Australian citizenship. Relevant PHStat output is provided on the next page.

(a) What is the expected number of applicants who fail? Interpret this value.

(b) What is the probability that exactly 3 applicants will fail the test?

(c) What is the probability that fewer than 2 applicants will fail the test?

(d) What is the probability that exactly 16 applicants will pass the test?

(e) What are the characteristics of this binomial distribution?

Question 2 is continued on next page

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Binomial Probabilities

Data
Sample size 20
Probability of success 0.16

X P(X) P(<=X) P(<X) P(>X) P(>=X)

0 0.03059 0.03059 0 0.96941 1
1 0.116535 0.147125 0.03059 0.852875 0.96941
2 0.210873 0.357998 0.147125 0.642002 0.852875
3 0.240998 0.598996 0.357998 0.401004 0.642002
4 0.195093 0.794089 0.598996 0.205911 0.401004
5 0.118914 0.913003 0.794089 0.086997 0.205911
6 0.056626 0.969629 0.913003 0.030371 0.086997
7 0.021572 0.991201 0.969629 0.008799 0.030371
8 0.006677 0.997878 0.991201 0.002122 0.008799
9 0.001696 0.999573 0.997878 0.000427 0.002122
10 0.000355 0.999929 0.999573 7.14E-05 0.000427
11 6.15E-05 0.99999 0.999929 9.93E-06 7.14E-05
12 8.79E-06 0.999999 0.99999 1.14E-06 9.93E-06
13 1.03E-06 1 0.999999 1.06E-07 1.14E-06
14 9.81E-08 1 1 7.94E-09 1.06E-07
15 7.48E-09 1 1 4.66E-10 7.94E-09
16 4.45E-10 1 1 2.06E-11 4.66E-10
17 1.99E-11 1 1 6.47E-13 2.06E-11
18 6.33E-13 1 1 1.41E-14 6.47E-13
19 1.27E-14 1 1 0 1.41E-14
20 1.21E-16 1 1 0 0

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 Question 3 (10 + 10 + 5 = 25 mar ks)

Par t A
Time spent using email per session is normally distributed with a mean of 20 minutes and a standard
deviation of 3 minutes.
(a) What is the probability that time spent using email per session is greater than 21 minutes?

(b) What is the probability that time spent using email per session is between 18.3 minutes and
22.6 minutes?

(c) What is the probability that a random sample of 64 email users will spend an average time
greater than 21 minutes?

(d) Explain the difference between the results in part (a) and part (c).

Question 3 is continued on next page

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Par t B

The owner of a Greek restaurant wants to know the mean amount spent per customer in the restaurant.
A sample of 60 customers is taken. The sample mean is $38.54 and the standard deviation is $7.26.

(a) Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean amount spent per customer. Give the
confidence interval limits correct to two decimal places.

(b) Given the customer base remains the same the owner’s accountant has stated that the mean
amount spent per customer needs to be $45.00 in order to ensure that the business remains
profitable. Should the owner be concerned about the profitability of the restaurant?

(c) What sample size would need to be taken to obtain a result which is within $1.00 of the
true mean with a probability of 0.95?

Question 3 is continued on next page

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Par t C

(Please circle your response to each statement)

(i) Regardless of the distribution of the X variable, if the sample size is

True/False
sufficiently large, X has an approximately normal distribution.

(ii) The distribution of the sample mean has the same central location as the
True/False
distribution of the parental population.

(iii) X is a random variable. True/False

(iv) Other things being equal, the confidence interval for the mean will be
True/False
wider for 95% confidence than for 90% confidence.

(v) A population mean is used in the estimation of a confidence interval. True/False

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 Question 4 (12 + 13 = 25 mar ks)
Par t A
A company is trying out a new marketing plan. Prior to the new campaign, store sales per week were
$5000. The new method is trialled in 15 randomly selected stores. The sample provided sales figures
with a sample mean of $5500 and a standard deviation of $800. Can the company conclude that the
new marketing plan works? Use α = 0.01 and the following template to answer the question.
HO:
H1:
Level of Significance:

Test Statistic and Associated Sampling Distribution:

Calculation and Decision:

Conclusion:

What assumptions need to be made in order to undertake this test?

Indicate the test statistic and p-value on the small sketch below.

Question 4 is continued on next page

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Par t B
A sample of ten developed countries is selected. Information about the percentage labour force
participation in the agricultural sector and the per capita income (in thousands of US dollars) is
obtained. An analysis using EXCEL yielded the information below.
Regression Analysis

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.585728146
R Square 0.34307746
Adjusted R Square 0.260962143
Standard Error 1.728871758
Observations 10

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 12.48801956 12.48801956 4.17799591 0.075203745
Residual 8 23.91198044 2.988997555
Total 9 36.4

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 12.52322738 1.995718931 6.275045643 0.00023914 7.92109128 17.12536349
% in Agriculture -0.552567237 0.270334283 -2.044014655 0.075203745 -1.175959212 0.070824738

(a) The independent variable is (please circle)

Income Labour Force in Agriculture (%) Intercept

(b) The dependent variable is (please circle)

Income Labour Force in Agriculture (%) Intercept

(c) Report the estimated regression equation and interpret the values of b0 and b1.

Question 4 is continued on next page

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(d) Test whether the regression coefficient β1 is significant at the 10% level of significance.

(e) If the percentage of the labour force in agriculture was 10%, what would you predict the
level of per capita income for that country to be?

(f) The value of the coefficient of determination is (please circle)

(i) 0.3431 (ii) 0.5857 (iii) 0.2610

What information does the coefficient of determination provide concerning the relationship
between the variables?

Comment on the quality of the prediction made in part (f).

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 FORMULAE

X=
ΣX
n
S2 =
1  2 (ΣX ) 2 
ΣX −
n −1  n 
 or S =
2 1
n −1
{ ∑ (X − X ) } 2

X− X
Z=
S

P(A') = 1 − P(A)

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B)

P(A and B) = P(A|B) P(B) = P(B|A) P(A)

P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B)

µ = ∑ x P (x) σ 2= ∑ x 2 P ( x) − µ 2
µ = np
σ 2 = np(1 − p)
n!
P (X) = p X (1− p)
n− X

X! (n − X)!

X−µ
Z=
σ

X−µ X−µ ps − p
~ N(0 , 12 ) ~ t n −1 ~ N(0 , 12 )
σ S p(1− p) / n
n n

σ S p s (1 − p s )
X ± Zα / 2 X ± t( n −1)α / 2 ps ± Zα / 2
n n n

 Zα / 2   Zα / 2 2 1 Z 
2 2

n = σ n = p(1− p) n =  α /2  .
 e   e  4 e 

b1 − β1 b0 − β 0
~ t n −2 , ~ t n −2
Sb 1
Sb 0

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result in the cancellation of all marks for this examination.
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