UKRAINE CRISIS & THE INTERNATIONAL NORMS Two, the cavalier manner several public figures flag the possibility of World War 111, and nuclear confrontation, should dispel any notions of international norms. In the past. only ‘maverick leaders made such statements filed with bravado, One can't escape this uncomfortable question: Was Ukraine foolish and short-sighted to give up and destroy its nuclear weapons in 1994 and join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapon state, just four years before the South Asian fests? Similar questions were raised over North Korea and Iraq, Now the Russian invasion of non-nuclear and helpless Ukraine sends an unmistakable message to hardliners in Tran: giving up the nuclear option or compromising enrichments will be an open invitation for external interventions in the Islamic republic. Three, the Ukraine crisis underscored individual and collective hypocrisies. Legitimising the Russian invasion has unintended consequences. Saddam Hussein justified his invasion of Kuwait on the grounds of the latter siphoning off Iraqi oil through slant drilling. Now Putin sces NATO expansion as a redline that must not be crossed, Like individuals, nations are also short-sighted; the Crimean crisis of 2014 should have wamed the Westem strategic community of the Russian capabilities and calculations. Even if the political leaders were indulging in wishful thinking, there should have been plans for the worst-case scenario. Unfortunately. Washington did not do its homework before contemplating the expansion of NATO so close to the Russian heartland, Four, as the organisation of sovereign states, the UN is not a perfect body. Yet, it has been striving to limit conflicts and move the world towards a mote equitable order based on justice. ‘The Ukraine crisis has pushed the UN back by several decades, In 1956, the UNSC was paralysed over the Suez crisis, as Britain and France. the major invaders of Egypt (along with Israel), were permanent members. Hence, the issue moved to the UN General Assembly, which overwhelmingly condemned and isolated the former colonial powers. However, the real force was US President Dwight Bisenhower, who strongarmed and reversed the tripartite aggression. The situation is different today. Backed by China, Russia has paralysed the UNSC, and the UN General Assembly is ineffective without a global hegemon. International condemnation and isolation of Russia make 9 fewine bu acrotcuicen oiavece Pain, {QB Five, the Ukraine criss reminds us of the ip SAD RIGHT sides of leaders with unbridled powers. As the "Y= invasion drags on, Russia's lack of pre-war preparation is visible, The invasion was not a well-planned military strategy, and Russian generals were perhaps bullied into submitting to political diktats. If regime change in Ukraine was the goal, the Russian generals are executing it badly. Since th days of Carthage, wars have had one golden rule: you can initiate a war, but you can't write its end. Six, popular and intellectual anti-Americanism has paved the way for widespread justification of the Russian invasion. While the crisis has exposed the policy limitations of the US and the ‘West, any move to rationalise the Russian action has one danger. Will the Ukraine crisis be a carte blanche for similar actions by other powers vis-a-vis their hapless neighbours? In short, will Putin be a “precedent” for Chinese President Xi Jinping 10 cenforce his will on Taiwan? ‘Seven, uncertainties of the final outcome have compelled several countries, including India, to take refuge uncler political realism, and temporarily bury core issues like the inviolability of sovereignty and territorial intogrity, Instead, they settle for hedging (0 minimise the negatives and maximise their gains Instead, this crisis should be an opportunity to explore and expand policy choices for the future, With neither side prepared to climb down, an carly end to the Ukraine crisis seems elusive. Meanwhile, without a serious political implosion in either country, the world is condemned to endure the political economic and diplomatic consequences of the ctisis and the systematic dismantling of the post-World War 11 international order (P R Kumaraswamy, Published in The Indian Express on 20th May 2022) Read Right Institute | www readrighinstitute.com [0301 4184111 |0333 4184111ELUSIVE DREAM OF NATIONAL INTEGRATION 6c ‘ational integration implies the avoidance of divisive Ne= the nan and seit tht singh national and public interest from parochial interest”, —Myron Weiner NATIONAL integration is not made by bricks and mortar, mould and hammer. but it quietly grows in people's hearts and minds through concerted efforts by society. It is a feeling of oneness that raises a nation above all narrow and divisive tendencies and makes for genuine patriotism and progress. It is a socio- psychological and educational process that inculcates this feeling of unity and harmony and develops a sense of common citizenship and loyalty to the nation. The region that constitutes Pakistan today has for centuries been a melting pot of civilizations and center of interaction of different religions, cultures, languages, political systems and thought processes. Each enriching the other and eventually evolving into what we (oday relate to as Pakistani culture and identity, The importance of national integration cannot be overemphasized in Pakistan which has a varied society and culture and a large population. Being different, we still feel that we somehow are all one nation sharing same flag and same national anthem, Ironically despite this underlying feeling of a nation, the conviction of being a single nation has never really taken roots in our society Although created on the basis of two-nation theory, we, in Pakistan have throughout struggled to cur ideological, parochial, linguistic and sectarian differences resulting in lunending grievances against the state, Stabilization and, continuation of democracy, maintenance of sustainable economic growth, dispensation of justice and provision of equal rights to all depend on prevalence of a strong sense of national integration, Pakistan faced copious problems of language and ethnicity right from inception, Ethnic nationalism came in direct conflict with religion and language in many parts of Pakistan. The clash of religion and ethnicity created political instability and adversely affected the process of national integration particularly in East Pakistan with disastrous consequences. If we were cognizant of the extent of the sensitivities of our Bengali brethren, paid heed to their gemiine demands and tried 10 inculcate that feeling of national integration and commonality of national interest. maybe we would not have had (0 face’ the tragedy of fall of Dhaka. Unfortunately we are slow at leaming from history and have short memories. Claims of enhancing and strengthening national integration have been made by successive governments since 1971, but actual progress on ground is nothing much to write about. Today again we are fading to recognize the real issues impeding national integration and brewing discontent, deprivation, neglect, exploitation, alienation and even etherisation in Balochistan, KP, Southem Punjab, Urban Sindh and Gilgit-Baltistan, It is the duty of every person asa citizen to oppose the forces and ideas that weaken national ‘unity and integrity “We are now all Pakistanis — not Balochis, Pathans, Sindhi, Bengalis, Punjabis and so on — and as Pakistanis we must feel, behave and act. and we should be proud to be known as Pakistanis and nothing else’, Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah said in a reply to Civic Address presented by Quetta Municipality on 15th June 1948 Taking its cue from the Quaid, government needs to urgently focus on steering the process of national integration on priority as lack of intemal cohesion, peace and stability is the biggest threat to national security History is full of stories of the fall of great civilizations as a result of implosion due to fissures and corrosion in the architecture of national integration We National integration solidifies the foundation of READ RIGHT tionhood, which is crucial for national security SOM against intemal and extemal challenges. In order to survive and develop, government must ensuring socal justice, tolerance, rule of lass, good governance and democratic pluralism, + A well-considered plan of action is essential which takes viewpoints of all stake holders. This would ensure essential cultural, and political needs of divergent identities and minimize regional and provincial disequilibrium, This will also grant sense of ownership to federating units supportive of process of national integration, + True empowerment of Local Body system is essential to narrow down the spread of mistrust, keep people satisfied, reduce sense of deprivation and curb separatist tendencies. In China local bodies are the lynch pin in their development strategy’ and phenomenal rise of China is result + Power must be delegated from provinces to local bodies for uninterrupted growth of the political process, ensuring, integration and participation of the local people directly into the ‘mainstream political process. + Priority must be given to projects that generate economic ‘mergers, inter-provineial Interdependency and national, integration, + Inter-provincial internship and student exchange programmes be initiated immediately. Attractive incentives be offered 10 qualified young professionals so that they work in provinces other than their home province. + Inter-provincial sports, debates, drama, titerary and art societies be set up and encouraged, State owned organizations and Business community could be encouraged to sponsor in provincial students” activities + Implement former FATA merger plan in letter and spirit in order to address issues of judicious development in the region, + Internal tourism be prioritized and people encouraged to visit different parts of the country to appreciate the differences and celebrate the commonalities. This would help the people the true essenice of the concept of “Unity in Diversity + Syllabus of history’ and social studies be strengthened. Starting history books from Muhammad Bin Qasim has deprived younger generation of rich and diverse cultural heritage that is a part of the ethos of the people of Pakistan ‘+ Emulating system in Indonesia, the largest Muslim country government should standardize Jumakhutba by Mauvis. Islamic Ideology Council could ensure that sermons in mosques areon issues of religious and social importance with authentic interpretation and not leaning towards fundamentalism, extremism + Successive governments have taken half-hearted efforts 10 address the issues plaguing Balochistan, largest and most resource rich province and yet least developed and most backward area of Pakistan. Balochistan is aching, people are suffering,They need healing, They need compassion and an honest effort to resolve their genuine and urgent requirements, They are falling victim to malicious designs of our enemies because we are failing to respond to their cries for help. A serious political dialogue and effort is urgently required to bring peace and prosperity to Balochistan, Let us not go down the disastrous path of further alienating them. Read Right Institute | www readrighinstitute com [0301 4184111 [0333 418 4111jor political parties need to rise to the occasion and stop playing parochial politics. These parties must stop indulging in peity personal squabbles and animosities and pay attention to ‘major problems facing our nation lest these become existential issues for us. + Last but not the Teast, media ways have a huge responsibility for shaping public opinion and educating people, In era of media explosion it can be a real agent for peace and war. What Pakistan needs today is serious. unbiased and patriotic media promoting, tational integration and not further fanning the fires of division and hatred (Naghmana A’ Hashmi, Published in Pakistan Observer on May 10th, 2022) China's rise and America's decline The history of the world reveals the rise and fall of superpowers. After the first world war, four empires collapsed: the Russian Empire, the German and the Austro-Hungarian and the Ottoman in 1922, and fourteen new countries emerged after the war. Similarly,the Second World War consequences, 50 Africans, 17 Asians, two countries in Europe were formed.the collapse of the British Empire, and the emergence of the USA and USSR as superpowers, the formation of the UN, NATO, and WARSAW. The world was divided inio two blocks. Fifleen countries emerged from the disintegration of the USSR, the USA agreed with Russia that NATO would not be expanded, later 14 members of the former USSR joined NATO afer the cold war. Ukraine has the same importance for Russia as Afghanistan! Saudi Arabia for Pakistan, Cyprus for Turkey. or Sudan for Egypt.Ukraine intended to join NATO, a dangerous move from the Russian point of view, which resulted in war with Ukraine, The outcome of the war will see the downfall of the US and the rise of China due to the following, + The way the USA Iefl Afghanistan abruptly is considered the beginning of the end of the American century. The allied countries were surprised they were not even consulted. + In the winter Olympics in China, despite the US boycott, more than 30 heads of state from Saudi Ambia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, etc. attended the ceremony. + The UAE recently suspended talks on a $23 billion deal to purchase American-made F-35 planes and is, now buying 80 Rafale aircraft from France. + The UAE and Saudi Arabian leaders declined calls with President Biden during, the Ukraine crisis. + The US role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not lucid, it is a failure of diplomacy. it will help Russia to improve its image as a big power, Ultimately Europe will suffer economically which may cause it to move away from the US policies. * The cancellation of the French conventional submarine deals by Australia abruptly and the formation of AUKUS in which Australia will acquire nuclear submarines from the US and UKhurt the relations between France and these countries. Although not declared the sole purpose of the AUKUS, QUAD is to contain China, + Saudi Arabia is in talk with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan, a ‘move that would dent the U.S. doltar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia Meanwhile, US Dollar share dropped by 1.078 % in global transactions in February 2022, This may be the first step but if other countries follow the dominance of the US $ will be diminished and Yuan will emerge as the main currency. + India is buying cheap oil from Russia ignoring the US pressure. The US is also involved in changing the regime of the countries, + The latest remarks of President Biden to change the regime in Russia sparked the world, China has improved its image by gaining economic! technological prosperity. The Belt and Road initiative (BRI) along with China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), in which China has spent around one willion US Dollars. China’s BRL development strategy aims to build connectivity 9 Oy and cooperation across six main economic “AB corridors encompassing China and: onan Mongolia and Russia; Eurasian countries, Central and West Asia; Pakistan: other countries of the Indian sub-continent; and Indochina, This investment will strengthen the relations between China and these countries. The Chinese demands are quite different from the US. The US sells its old arms and ammunition, invests less in these countries, involved in regime changes. Chinese investment improves the infrastructure of these countries and improves the countries ‘economically. Unlike the US, China will never interfere with the politics of any country. China is also the biggest or one of the biggest trading partners for most countries, China is flexing its military muscle, establishing its first overseas base in Djibouti, another in Equatorial Guinea which will pose a strategic challenge to the US in the Atlantic Ocean. Chinese ships patrol/exercise the Indian Oceanlittoral countries apart from the South China Sea. It is difficult to predict how ‘many years will be taken the US to lose and China will gain the status of a superpower. The policies of the US will strengthen the case for China to emerge as a superpower. The allied countries fare not happy with the US and developing/under developing, countries of the world are Looking toward China for investment ‘nd to improve their economic conditions, (Kamran Hashmi. Published in Pakistan Observer on May 1th, 2022) Read Right Institute | www readrighinstitute com [0301 4184111 |0333 418 4111DECODING THE BOSNIAN CRISIS The Backgrounder focuses on the crisis plaguing Bosnia / ‘as well as iis impact hoth domestically and internationally, Bosnia is going through a period of crisis {in both of ts administrative units. On the one hand, it isa clash of interests between the Bosnian Serbs Republic and the rest of the country, while on the other hand, there is the electoral clash between the Bosnian Croats and the Bosniaks, Such identity based clashes could spark the Hames of separation, ethnic violence and major conflicts. The relevance of the Dayton Agreement meant to connect the three identities also comes into ‘question. Bosnia and Herzegovina, situated in the westem Balkan Peninsula of Europe. had been plagued by ethnic strife and civil war for 26 years until 1995,The main conflict was between the three dominant ethnic groups in the country—Bosniaks, Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats. The present-day Bosnia is also going through a period of crisis. the main issues being the conflict of interest between the Bosnian Serb republic and the rest of the country, also called the Republika Srpska conflict, and the electoral conflict between the Bosniaks and the Bosnian Croats in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In order to understand the present crisis and the complesities of the nation, it is important to understand the Dayton Agreement which was signed in December 1995, to bring peace and stability 10 the region and acts as an essential guide, particularly regarding the functioning of the nation and its government The Dayton Agreement After the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1991, six republics were carved out from the federation namely Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia, The collapse of Yugoslavia saw the rise of ethnic nationalism, and the groups began to show aggression towards fone another, which Ted to a war from 1992 till 1995, In order to ‘maintain peace and stability in the post-war period, the Dayton Agreement or Dayton Accords was signed in December 1995. The crux of the agreement was the division of Bosnia into two administrative units namely, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (for Bosniaks and Croats) and Republika Srpska (for Bosnian Serbs) (Map 1). Another important section pertained to the sharing of leadership among the three main ethnic groups. This basically meant a four-year presidency, with the chairmanship as the presiding member of the Bosnian Presidency rotating every eight months. Map 1: Bosnia & Herzegovina Republic and its two administrative units: the Republika Srpska (Serbs) and Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina (Bosniaks and Croats) The present post of the High Representative was created 10 ensure implementation of the agreement, The agreement also gave the power to the High Representative to authorise decisions in case of clash of interests or when political and economic interests are at stake, The spirit of the agreement was maintained toa large extent until the recent crisis. ‘The Republika Srpska Conflict The Bosnian Serbian President Milorad Dodik, is a known genocide denialist who had made genocide denial a central theme of his platform and dominance in Republika Srpska, On 23 July 2021, the High Representative Valentin Inzko introduced amendments to a Criminal Code ‘which sanctioned the glorification of war criminals convicted by final and binding judgements, genocide denial, crimes against humanity, and war crimes. The genocide mentioned in the amendment is the Genocide of Bosniaks by the Serb Army in July 1995 during the Bosnian War. About 7,000- 8,000 Bosnian Muslims were exccuted by Bosnian ULE Serbs in Srebrenica. This amendment has been the oe ‘main bone of contention between the Bosnian "wie Serbian leadership and Bosnia. Dodik is trying t0 push for laws that would see Republika. Srpska withdraw from the central institutions and threatens (0 create their own Bosnian Serb Army. The genocide law has been declared void in the Republika Srpska. President Zeljka Cvijanovie has said that the law would not be imposed and that they would not cooperate with the Bosnian state level institutions fo implement the law. Legal expert Lejla Gacanica has emphasised that any law imposed by the High Representative cannot be declared void, and that it would be applicable 0 the entire Bosnia and Herzegovina including Republika Srpska. Members of the Parliament of the Republika Srpska have passed a set of CM CROATIA SERBIA oN " MONTENEGRO a a conclusions which is a step further towards competencies from the state level (0 the entity level, This step would see the Republic opt out of many state institutions, transferring including the army, judicial institutions and the taxation authority. This is being seen as a threat to secede, and could open up old wounds of ethnic conflict and lead to the old Serbian— Bosniak divide, The divide on sectarian grounds could escalate into a civil war-ike situation in the nation, The Bosman Croats Electoral Conflict The second major crisis plaguing Bosnia is a difference of opinion between the Bosnia Croats and the Bosniaks on the eligibility and election of presidential candidates within Bosnia and Herzegovina, Under the Dayton Agreement and existing election laws, both Croats and the Bosniaks can vole for both the Bosniaks and Croat candidates since they fall under the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, This had led to post-electoral dissatisfaction among, the Croats. The winner did not have the backing of the nationalists, They feel that the last elected Croat did not represent them, Which led to the protests by the nationalist Croats, Dragan Covic, the head of the nationalist Croat Party the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ), has further fuelled the demands for a separate electorate for the Croats, These demands for a separate electorate have been resisted by the Bosniaks. thereby prompting Covic and his party fo abandon cooperation with them in various forums. With elections due in October 2022, this electoral crisis is currently at Read Right Institute | www readrighinstitute com [0301 4184111 [0333 4184111a slow pace. However, if'no solution is found, it could eventually Tead (o a race against time. This issue has further complicated the situation in the country, which is already struggling with an ethnic crisis and which could quickly escalate and fuel the flames of separation, External Reactions to the Crisis The present Bosnian crisis has received reactions domestically as well as from significant players like the United States, European Union and Russi which are discussed next. United States and European Union The United States has threatened to impose sanctions against all those who are ‘opposing the functioning of the Dayton Agreement, particularly hinting at Milorad Dodik. According to the US Embassy, “there is no constitutional way for a single entity to unilaterally withdraw from state instittions”. US has sanctioned Dodik, accusing him of corruption and threatening to destabilise the region, US has decided to weigh in the electoral crisis as well. In order to ensure some solution to the crisis, it has sent an envoy Matt Palmer to work with the European Union (EU). EU has, within its capacity, tried t0 solve the electoral crisis. Bosnia is not a member of the EU but had applied for its membership in 2016 and avails the opportunity to join it. It is therefore understandable why EU has a strong influence in the country. The EU representative in Sarajevo, Johann Sattler has been working hard on the election reforms, and held talks with the nationalist parties to make changes to the election law as per the conditions set by the EU, without amending the constitutional framework of Bosnia, The EU has initiated debates for sanctioning Dodik and the Republika Srpska including travel bans, restrictive measures and freezing of assets, Relatively speaking, there has been reduced interest from the West vis-a-vis Bosnia in recent times, however the recent crisis has brought a reaction from both US and Europe. Since US has its hands full with COVID-19, China, and the Ukrainian crisis, ils attention can be considered as waning but not completely removed However, EU is seemingly more proactive as it has more stakes at hand. The reaction of the Dutch United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during the Srebrenica genocide in 1995, is also important. The UNPROFOR tad failed to take necessary military action to save Srebrenica, a town located in the easternmost part of Republika Smpska. Airstrikes requested from NATO to keep the Serbian onslaught were never authorised despite requests from peacekeepers on the ground. These slow reactions in the past worry the Bosnians, if there is any civil war or conflict in the future, Therefore, itis important to have a more proactive EU involvement in the current crisis, Russia Russia is considered a supporter of its Slavic Serbian brethren in the conflict, Milorad Dodik had met the Russian President Viadimir Putin on 2 December 2021, and the latter stated that attention was being given to the happenings in the Republika Srpska. Russia could use this opportunity to further its influence and control in the region, This support for Bosnian Serbs by Russia could have regional implications particularly after Russia’s warning of a reaction if Bosnia joins NATO. Russia and NATO are currently in a state of war in Ukraine. Though Russia is currently at loggerheads with Ukraine, Bosnia is a different situation. Ukraine belongs to Russian immediate neighbourhood and any NATO involvement in Ukraine is seen asa direct threat to Russian security, whereas Bosnia is far from the neighbourhood and therefore, remains a region of interest. Russia’s future plans of expanding its sphere of influence post Ukraine could sce Bosnia play an important role, particularly with Serbia, a Russian ally located next to Bosnia, There could be a direct clash with NATO whose member Croatia shares a border with Bosnia, Thus, any plans of expansion of influence could lead to another front of conflict between bitter old rivals—Russia and the West Conclusion The two crises in Bosnia and SAD RIGHT Herzegovina have put the mation in a red alert situation and there are high chances of it erupting {nto a major conflict or civil war. If no serious efforts are made to solve the current crisis, there could be political instability which could in tum fan ideas of disintegration and separa This situation could take Bosnia 26 years back to the civil war tera and ethnic conflicts, devastation and toss of life. If the situation worsens, it could also lead to a refugee crisis which ‘would further burden Europe, which is already suffering from an ongoing refugee crisis. Russia's involvement in Bosnian domestic politics would spark another front for conflict and have fan impact on the European regional security paradigm. The crisis, if it fares up, would also interfere in NATO"s quest for military expansion into the Balkans and Eastern Europe. (Written by Jason Wahlang) Read Right Institute | www readrightinstitute com [0301 4184111 [0333 418 4111AKISTAN’S ECONOMIC STORM & LESSONS FOR SRI LANKA ovidl9-related restrictions have devasted the world’s most ‘vulnerable economies. The situation has essentially ‘worsened since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, crushing countries whose Gross Domestic Product depends on exports of single-source goods and services such as tourism, imports of essential goods such as fuel and gas, and sustained inflows of foreign funding, loans and remittances. Being a tourism- dependent and imports-based economy. Sri Lanka appears to be the first casualty of this economic meltdown. Pakistan is facing a similar situation, chiefly due to rising prices of essential commodities like petroleum, edible oil, wheat and other basic food items in the international market, not fo mention increasing trade deficits, deficits in the balance of payments and ‘mounting public sector debt, The country has seen a massive depletion in Foreign Direct Investments over the last three years. The freefall of the rupee against the dollar has heightened the risk of default, while political wxmoil has added much uncertainty to the financial market. A country of more than 220 million people, Pakistan will need 29 million tons of wheat this year for domestic consumption. However, it is projected to produce only 26 million tons, The country may also face a shortfall in the production of export crops like rice and mangoes due to a severe water shortage from its rivers, a lack of rains, and drastic changes in weather pattern. Rising electricity tariffs and load-shedding may also impact the country’s exports, specifically of textiles, sports items, surgical equipment and other manufactured items, To put the crisis unfolding now in perspective, the country’s fiscal deficit is expected (0 exceed $ trillion rupees, while its revenues are likely to be less than 7 trillion rupees. What this ‘means is that unless immediate drastic steps are taken to rescue the economy from possible collapse, Pakistan may head towards a Sri Lanka-like situation To be sure, this is not the first time Pakistan has encountered such a situation, As a result of decades-long instability, a lack of long-term sustainable economic reforms and the imposition of sanctions vin the Pressler Amendment, Pakistan reached the verge of collapse in 1999, The imposition of further sanctions and a freeze on all in-country foreign currency accounts in the aflermath of nuclear tests in May 1998 worsened its troubles, With a Gross Domestic Product of around USD 62 billion at the time, Pakistan received a mere USD 1 billion as workers’ official remittances. Moreover, foreign direct investment inflows amounted to less than half a billion US dollars. Complicatin raters further, the installation of a military government in October 1999 resulted in. the imposition of even further sanctions. As a result, [t]he country... faced a gap between extemal receipts and extemal payments of about $ 2.5 billion 10 $ 3 billion anmually for the next few years... Credit rating agencies downgraded the Sovereign Credit of Pakistan to Selective Default Category Facing imminent collapse, Pakistan approached the Internatio: Monetary Fund (IMF) and managed to get a “heavily front- Joaded” loan assistance of USD 1.56 billion. Not long after, “the IMF was able to complete all the reviews successfully and all the tranches were released on time. [As a result], IMP agreed to follow-up with a three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF),” The results were visible enough. Pakistan's agricultural and industrial input increased during this period. By June 2001. its exports had risen to USD 9.2 billion. is pertinent to mention that countries like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the United Arab wy Emirates (UAE) and China played a pivotal role gran aight in charting Pakistan out of this crisis, The KSA “EAR provided free oil facilities to Pakistan for strategic infrastructure after it conducted nuclear tests in 1998, The KSA and the UAE also extended oil import facilities fon a deferred payment basis after 9/11, China's support for Pakistan at all international forums including the United Nations Security Councit remained consistent, The two countries would go on to sign the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in the second decade of the century Sri Lanka seems to be in a similar situation, probably worse than where Pakistan was in 1999. What can it do? In the short run, it ‘ust approach and engage with financial institutions like IMF This has more or less boon done already, Regional allies also need to be approached. That, however, would require political consensus and stability at home, In the long run, Sri Lanka will have to diversify its economy from a tourism-only to a “tourism-also” economy. Given ongoing worldwide disruptions in supplies of essential commoditics like wheat and other food items, the country must focus on becoming self-sufficient. Petroleum and petroleum products ate by far the country’s biggest imports, ‘There is thus a clear need to shift to renewable energy sources. This will help not only in bringing down the import bill. but also in combatin environmental degradation, ‘As mentioned earlier, Pakistan’s economy: is facing a serious financial crunch again, However, the country may not face a grave situation similar to 1999 this time, because of several political and financial (internal and external) factors. On the financial front, Pakistan’s GDP hovers between USD 300 and USD 350 billion, as compared to mere USD 62 billion in 1999, The State Bank of Pakistan holds more than USD 10 billion of forex reserves, enough for 45 days of imports. By contrast, in 1999 forex reserves amounted to a mere USD 900) ‘million. Back then foreign investors were flecing the country Yet today. by contrast, outflows of profits and dividends on foreign investments have risen over the first 10. months of the current financial year — a positive sign for foreign investment, On the political front, the government of Imran Khan, whose ‘mismanagement resulted in economic failure in the country. has been voted out. The current government has decided 10 take tough decisions: inter alia, approaching the IMF over the next tranche of the ongoing assistance program and reducing subsidies on petroleum products and electricity On the extemal front, the KSA and the UAE are rescheduling payments of their security deposits with the State Bank of Pakistan, China is also considering the resumption of the CPEC, which the previous government had paused. Moreover, other than petroleum, Pakistan is presently able to manage 80% needs of its food basket internally Despite the optimism, though, it is clear that if Pakistan's economy fails to cope with the crisis, the consequences will be felt throughout the region, Being Pakistan’s closest neighbor and being heavily dependent on the import of essential items from Pakistan, Afghanistan, ix particular, will have fo bear the brunt in the event of such a collapse, Therefore, stability in a country like Pakistan is necessary for stability in the rest of the region. The region, for its part, must act together, while organizations like the South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) ust be revived with a simple one-point agenda: the welfare of the people. (Muhammad Aftab Alam. Published in NewsWire on May 29, 2022) Read Right Institute | www readrighinstitute com [0301 4184111 |0333 418 4111THE NEW GOVERNMENT AND BUDGET FOR 2023 he present coalition government, led by Pakistan Muslim I League (Nawaz). is charged with the uphill task of preparing one of the most difficult and critical financial budget for the next fiscal year, Pakistan will be moving into the next budget with the economic mess left by the Pakistan Te iInsaaf (PTI), including historic high inflation rates. highest deficits and stratospheric debt levels. The buffers are already exhausted and the biggest challenge would be to facilitate common man whose hopes for a better fifestyle are already fast draining. The aphorism approach adopted by PTI incurred a heavy cost and it failed to address the recurrent problem of a low revenue base and high debt levels, which ultimately squeezes space for growth and social protection based spending on education, healthcare, and infrastructure, At the time when, Pakistan is facing risk of default, its extemal liabilitics coupled with inereasing import bill are cannibalizing its reserves and current account deficit is sliding southwards, the budget must be inspired by the vision of economic stability with taking cognizance of the fact that without adding new taxpayers (o the books and removing undue preferential fax treatments, the goal of sustainable growth can't be achieved. ‘The targets given to revenue collecting agencies must be realistic and in cohesion with the resources and capability of the system. In the past. it has been observed that on account of tax broadening, the authorities pass the load to existing or compliant axpayers in shape of new taxes and withholding provisions Such knee-jerk generating actions compromise profitability of businesses in the formal sector, hence. this Approach ultimately creates a vicious circle where at first the law abiding and complainant corporate and non-corporate taxpayers due to these regressive measures resort to find ways of tax avoidance and exploitation of anomalies in the system, eventually parting ways from formal system of economy and then when government starts facing challenges of revenue collection and growth, it starts offering tax amnesty schemes at regular intervals. The frequent amnesties lead to the protection and promotion of informal economy and wrong practices which gives encouragement to informal sector as they become confident that after a short span of time, they will be given yet another opportunity by the government to formalize their undocumented funds, Based on the latest available Tax Expenditure Report for 2021 for federal taxes, based on data pertaining to fiscal year (FY) 2019-20, the value of exemptions and concessions was estimated at Rs. 1,314.27 billion. Tax expenditure in sales tax amounted highest at Rs, 378.46 billion (44% of the total), while income tax related amounted to Rs. 448.05 billion (34%), and for Customs it is estimated at Rs. 287.77 billion (22%). In FY 2019-20, FBR’s {ay collection was Rs, 3,997.4 billion, Hence, tax expenditure to {otal collection ratio comes to about 33%. In order to generate fiscal space for developmental and social spending, government ‘must ensure transparency and fairness in sales tax, income tax and provincial taxes, There are certain provisions in income tax and sales tax laws which provide preferential treatment for ‘various sectors, such concessions and exemptions should. be carefully reviewed and should be restricted to those sectors only which genuinely require government support in order to flourish. The uncalled for exemptions extended to income and the perquisites of the military, judges and key position holders must be revoked, with current economic situation where common axpayer is squeezed to the last drop such exemptions are ‘unwarranted and un-ethical, Another key construction income from sector, wher example is of and housing wy goverment has offered reduced rate of borToving pean rucarr and banks have been given targets to doll out “pare ‘money. Due to this, there isa risk of misallocation of credit lending where a particular sector is enjoying certain benefits at the cost of all others. For taxation purposes. the value of property needs to be aligned with prevalent market rates — this gap between notified rates and ‘market rates is already causing a huge loss to treasury. Though, the regulator revised the tax slabs, however, they surrendered to the pressure from property business representatives and market rates have been reduced, This reflects badly on governments resolve and ability to implement its power, where a pressure group can maneuver fo overturn the revenue generating step. Presumptive tax measures like minimum tax which is based on tumover or taxes withheld is a blemished approach which acts as ‘a barrier for businesses in general, small and medium enterprises in specific as it disturbs their cash flows and they have to rely on borrowing subject (0 high interest rates, However, the dependence of Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) on minimum, ax, withholding and advance taxes is increasing by every passing day’ as it is an easier way fo generate revenue with less effort, The most withholding agents/taxpayers are entrusted with, this responsibility which originally belongs to FBR and that t00 without any special incentive or return. Ideally. government should devise a mechanism where companies and sectors who are collecting/withholding taxes and depositing taxes to government should be facilitated in shape of tax reduction or incentives, Technology has changed the global landscape where local and international systems can be closely knitted together. However, unfortunately the taxpayers in Pakistani are facing a situation where they have to deal with multiple revenue authorities at rational, inter provincial and intra-provincial levels, with conflicting tax rates and treatments. Their compliance becomes complicated and costly. In Pakistan, sales tax on goods is collected by the FBR while sales tax on services is collected by teach of the four provinces in their respective territory. Sales tax fon services in the Federal Capital Territory in Islamabad is also collected by FBR, while Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit- Baltistan have their own tax authorities, To address. this challenge, the FBR has introduced the concept of “National Sales Tax Retum”. However in parallel, the legislature must ensure synchronization between federal and provincial tax laws 10 censure case of doing business and to help establish effective business eco-systems Pakistan's taxation system needs paradigm reforms in order to achieve sustainable taxation and economic growth, Implementation of these reforms is subject to political will to cchase non-taxpayers who are evading tax due to legal gaps. The current government must continue to make efforts towards broadening of the tax base and developing the tax system in a ‘more simplified and technology friendly way The revenue collection agencies can source help through artificial intelligence and data analytics of various databases, The systems must be designed to corroborate and analyze the tax returns and withholding tax statements data with information available at databases of provincial tax authorities, import stage {ax collection database, property sale and purchase data (through duties and transfer), data of utility providing companies, travel records, excise and taxation records, as it will help to identify is-declarations, (Abdul Rauf Shakoori & Dr. Ikramul Hag, Published in ‘Minute Mirror on May 28, 2022) Read Right Institute | www readrightinstitute com [0301 4184111 |0333 418 4111NUCLEAR SOUTH ASIA AND CHALLENGES TO STRATEGIC STABILITY s he builds a theoretical explanation of Pakistan’s pursuance and acquisition of Nuclear Weapons, Feroz Hassan Khan in his seminal work on Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons Program, among others, refers to the work of realist (neorealist) scholars, who reason that faced with an adversarial security environment, states either resort to external balancing (a commonplace occurrence before the advent of the nuclear age) or internal balancing, which has turned out to be a mote viable strategy after the advent of the miclear age. Faced with a mammoth adversary next door threatening its survival, Pakistan did try to externally balance the threat from India by entering into the US-sponsored SEATO and CENTO. treaties, but given the alliances did not defend Pakistan against the military threats and aggression from India, specifically in 1971 resulting into the disintegration of the country. Pakistan's leadership was essentially left with no other choice except 10 resort to internal balancing by pursuing a clandestine nuclear program, which, given the highly oppositional intemational environment of the time, did accompany cosdy’ risks but was the ‘most viable lifeline to country’s territorial integrity Predictably, given the centrality of the nuclear weapons program to Pakistan's defense, the program tuned out to be a rare venture that remained unaffected by the customarily frequent change of governments in Islamabad and even before it was formally announced and acknowledged in May 1998. helped diffuse two crises between Pakistan and India, essentially setting the stage for strategic stability in South Asia enabled by deterrence Despite the plethora of literature on the subject, there is little consensus on what led India to detonate its nuclear devices to upgrade to weaponized capability in May 1998, Some rationalize India’s nuclear detonations citing the threat from China, which (it is pertinent to mention) was almost dormant back then while the critical voices blame India’s long-held aspirations of international prestige to secure a distinguished position at the “global high table”. Additionally, the role of domestic politics was also cited as one of the most credible reasons given the ruling BJP’s jingoistic credentials, Whatever the actual reason or combination of reasons might be, the Indian detonations did create a rightful pretext for Pakistan to go overtly nuclear, which it did only 17 days later on May 28th, 1998, Resultantly, the conventional asymmetry between India was offset by nuclear weapons, and India, as ¢ initial expectation of realizing its regional hegemonic and global prestige-centric ambitions owing to nuclear detonations, was left disadvantaged and its motivations thwarted. The policymakers in New Delhi, however, did not correspond with the new reality of the muclear equalizer rendering their edge counterbalanced, and soon started contemplating options to fight a limited war below the nuclear threshold as evinced by the planning and final admission of the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD). Pakistan's response was swift and apposite as it developed the short-range Nast missile, essentially to plug the gap that policymakers in New Delhi were aiming (0 exploit via CSD. Though with even minimum space left to unshackle their below nuclear threshold warfighting aspirations, Indians have not given up as demonstrated by the botched delivery of ordinance by the Indian Air Force (IAF) in Balakot in early 2019. As the aerial raids into each other's controlled territories spread wy over two days finally saw an end, dhe Modi UM) regime was left red-faced after IAF a5 pean right outgunned and outmancwered in the aerial "*ADRIG skirmish, which led Modi to escalate one more rung up the escalation ladder, only to be deterred by the threat of an even punitive response. Dangerous escalation with potentially catastrophic consequences was indubitably ‘minutes away but the crisis stability ultimately prevailed. Despite moving to the brink on numerous occasions, crisis stability has finally been prevailing between India and Pakistan However, itis the other facet of strategic stability ic. arms race stability that is consistently under stress thereby imperiling broader strategic stability in South Asia, Motivated by security considerations and international prestige aspirations, India features among the world’s top arms importers and has recently embarked upon a massive military modernization and expansion drive. While the Indo-US nuclear deal has enabled India 10 vertically profiferate ils nuclear weapons program, the acquisition of modem military systems by India being supplied by both the USA and Russia strains the overall balance of arms in South Asia with Pakistan compelled to take countermeasures, which, however, do not illustrate a classic parity-driven arms race but by making qualitative and quantitative changes in its weapon systems, Pakistan’s objective is to maintain deterrence capability enough (© deter “full-spectrum” of threats emanating, from India Pakistan, however, with a smaller economy compared to the size of the Indian economy is always in a disadvantageous position concerning qualitatively modernizing and expanding its ‘weaponry, and the latter's interminable thirst for the state of the Aart weaponry continues to imperil strategic stability in South Asi, (Hamdan Khan, Published in Modem Diplomacy on May 29, 2022) Read Right Institute | www readrightnstitute.com [0301 4184111 |0333 418 4111THE US-CHINA “THUCYDIDES TRAP” AND PAKISTAN ‘my earlier essay published in July 2020 in this paper. I had argued that the US, as a ruling global power, and China, as a rising global power, are caught in the “Thucydides Trap, which The Harvard Professor Graham T Allison, in one of his lectures a year ago, alluded fo as an inevitability (of course, with a caveat) of an armed clash between the Ruling Power (the US)and the Rising Power (China). His observation was based on his theory that took the name of the great Greek thinker philosopher and the founder of History (¢460-400 BC) Thucydides. He wrote his first History book called, ~The History of the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens.” 2500 years back, Athens, asa strong City State, was the Ruling Power and was challenged by Sparta, a Rising Power in ancient Greece. The Peloponnesian Wars resulted in the total ruin of Athens and the rise of Sparta as a leading power in Greece, The theory was put to test over the past 500 years by Harvard University, in which 16 conflicts between the Ruling Powers and the Rising Powers were observed during five centuries, and it came out that ut of 16 cases of Thucydides Trap, 12 resulted in wars, which none of the protagonists won, and in the majority of the conflicts, the war was provoked by a third party Professor Allison argues that pethaps, with the meteor rise of China as an economic global power and its endeavours to catch up with the US in technology and military power, the country is caught in the “Thucydides Trap.” The question is can the two sides defy’ the Thucydides Trap and escape the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), which could result ina catastrophic military conflict, given the most devastating land, air, sea, nuclear, space, cyber. and an electromagnetic array of weapons the two sides possess. Since World War 11, the US as a leading global power hhas been waging wars all over the world, including in Latin America, East Asia, the Middle Fast, and West Asia. All the wars that the US Army has waged after the second World War have resulted at best as test grounds for new military weapons and at worst brought death, destruction, and misery to millions. While the Chinese President Mr Xi Jinping has declared that China must have a “modem army which can fight and win,” bat Chinese leadership has adopted a “Dialectical Security Philosophy” contrary. to_-—«US_—_ “Technological Superiority/Monopoly Philosophy.” The Chinese believe that there is no such thing as “Absolute Security” since, if one side develops an offensive weapons system, the targeted adversary will ultimately be able to develop its way to defend, so they bid for time, and do not normally rush in matters of war, while the US approach is to overw' chnically ‘more sophisticated weapon systems. In the case of the China and US conflict, there isa rough parity, which constrains the US to undertake any precipitous Military venture without risking a ‘matching Chinese response. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added yet another complesity to US-China relations. China has reaffirmed the universally recognized principle of inviolability of internationally recognized state boundaries of sovereign nations. It has abstained on UN Resolutions tabled at the UN Security Council as well as UN General Assembly. The US-China confrontation for global dominance would most likely define the world order unfolding in the near future. Pakistan, inthe past few decades, has deftly managed balanced foreign relations with the thvo world powers, Since 9/11, Pakistan was fully engaged active partner with the US in its war on terror albei ata substantial human and material cost, The relations with China termed as all-weather Iron brothers ‘led to strategic partnership in China’s flagship multi-billion-dollar One Belt tos tant (SEG) iminike, Cai oan WBE Economic Corridor (CPEC) with a projected + outa of ateut“Co ‘Blign US. Dalene wae READ RGHT Sth ait inate: Ve angede ee economy by the construction of moder transportation networks, several energy projects and special economic zones. There was a national consensus that Pakistan would not be part of any politcal block and that it would like to have balanced strategic relations with both the superpowers. However, the recent intern: upheaval caused by the ouster ofthe PTI Government and the so- called “Lettergate “seems t0 have created a wave of anti-US sentiment, The former Prime Minister has been openly claiming tht the US hatched a conspiracy to oust him and that the present government, which he calls the "imported government” has been foisted by the US.His public pronouncements are laced with nationalistic and anti-American rhetoric. According to analysts, the foreign conspiracy narrative helps Imran Khan deflect public anger away from his failure of governance and economic ‘mismanagement during his tenure as PM. . Pakistan is in the ‘midst of a serious economic crisis and its dependence on IMF and The World Bank for sailing through the economic: crisis, Also, the Pakistan Military has a long strategic relationship with the US Military in terms of equipment, training and even Military Warfare doctrine. ‘Therefore. it will be in Pakistan's {nerest to continue this mutually beneficial relationship based on the universally recognised principle of sovercign equality Pakistan’s internal security is intrinsically linked to the peace and stability in Afghanistan, Afghanistan, unfortunately, seems to be descending into a status of a nonfunctional state with broken or nonexistent governance structures, the state actors are fast encroaching upon more space to extend their respective terrorist activities. The wave of terrorist acts in Afghanistan in which scores of civilians have died soems to be an attempt to deplete further the weak writ of the Taliban lead government in Kabul. As stated earlier by one of the US intelligence officials, international terrorist outfits could launch terrorist operations against the US and the West. The US will require Pakistan’s cooperation in Afghanistan. The US and Pakistan have a strategic interest in not allowing international terrorist organisations to regroup and launch large scale terrorist ‘operations in the world from the Afghan territory Pakistan and India, two historical rivals, are armed with nuclear weapons, The relations between the (wo neighbours have deteriorated in the past three years since India illegally annexed the disputed territory of Indian occupied Kashmir by abrogating the Indian Constitution article 370 The US-Pakistan relations also are vital for keeping nuclear restraint in South and West Asia, The “accidental” firing of un Indian ICBM on Pakistan’s populated area is a stark reminder of the very thin nuclear risk eshold on which nuclear deterrence rests in South Asia, Pakistan- US relations have strategic significance for Nuclear Security in South Asia. There are a number of mutual strategic interests that should bind Pakistan -USA relations. The two countries are following a democratic and Parliamentary system, the respective democrat deficiencies notwithstanding. The two countries should continue (© cooperate for strengthening democracy and democratic institutions from threats posed by indigenous as well as exogenous anti-democratic Forces. In my view, Pakistan does not have to choose sides in the unfolding, of what can be termed as a “Bipolar-Plus World Order,” in which the US and Cl would be the main global actors, while there would be other centres of power with varying degrees of areas of ascendeney and global reach, which may include EU (dominated by Read Right Institute | www readrighinstitute com [0301 4184111 [0333 418 4111Germany and France), India, and Japan in Asia Brazil in Latin America, South Africa and Nigeria in the African Continent, In the unfolding Bipolar Plus World Order, Pakistan's geostrategic Reaaua, and geo-economic interests can only be ensured by following a ns balanced foreign policy. which should follow the golden = principle of friendship with all and malaise against none, (Ambassador G Rasool Baluch. Published in Daily Times on ‘May 19, 2022) Read Right Institute | www readrighinstitute com [0301 4184111 |0333 418 4111PAKISTAN’S TRADE WITH CHINA AND INDIA ade is a comerstone of important economic I policymaking. In order to expand trade, many countries Ihave chosen Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)/Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). An economy dominated by global value chains and underwritten by regionalism has impressed upon the countries to opt for FT As. In order to discuss free trade agreements, trade between Pakistan and China, and trade between Pakistan and India; we refer to Shahid Yusuls publication F-19150-PAK-1 in the Intemational Growth Centre, 2020 and Akbar Zaidi’s chapter on the political economy of neighbourly relations in his book “Issues in Pakistan’s Economy.” published in 2015, Shahid Yusuf writes, “Through FTAs, countries can strengthen linkages created by GVCs (global value chains) and forge other strategic ones as well leading to larger flows of FDI. Trade agreements covering a large region are particularly advantageous because firms can specialize and reap scale economies. In addition to greater access to markels, technology and skills, FTAs are attractive because they can spur reforms — as in the case of China prior to its accession to the WTO — including trade liberalization and bring, about a simplification of rules governing trade. Hence FTAS/RTAs have proliferated, FTASPTAs support multilateralism However, WTO data suggests that trade enhancing impact of FTAS/PTAS is likely to be “modest” since most countries already have agroed to tarifl reductions under GATT/WTO, Akbar Zaidi is of the view that PTAs established on the basis of competitive rather than complementary economies are more likely to be effective to create opportunities for trade and product specialisation, South Asian Free Trade Agreement was executed in 2004 and it ‘materialised in 2006 but it has performed at a very sub-optimal level. Tt has not generated much trade amongst its members. Exports are just six per cent and intraregional trade is only three per cent. South Asia has the lowest intraregional trade that makes up five per cent of total regional trade in the world, Unless India and Pakistan relations improve, SAFTA is not going to perform to its optimal level. This is in direct contrast to India and China’s bilateral trade, which is highly substantial despite the border dispute between the two of them, Yusuf refers to a World Bank research to state that trade in South Asia could increase threefold from its current level and this increase in trade could lead to injecting the needed foreign direct investment into the economy To cite an example, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has made crucial investments in energy, infrastructure, and transport, However, there is a dire need for foreign direct investment in the export-oriented sectors in Pakistan, There are advantages as well as disadvantages to trading between a lower-middle-income economy of Pakistan with a GDP of $313 billion in 2018 and China, which is the world’s second- largest economy with $13.6 tillion, The first FTA was negotiated between China and Pakistan in 2006, Its second phase ‘was finalised in 2019, Trade between Pakistan and China that was less than $800 million in 2000 increased to $3.5 billion in 2006, Pakistan largely imported machinery, transport equipment, iron, steel. yam, and textiles from China. However, China imported textile yam, resource-based products, and fabrics from Pakistan, The toial Pakistan and China trade was roughly to the tune of $ 13.5 billion in 2017-18, Pakistan imports $11.5 billion worth of goods from China; while exports $1.7 billion worth of products in a similar range of manufactures as mentioned above, Over the years, Pakistan’s exports to China have increased twofold while China's exports to Pakistan have increased threefold. It shows. that more countries have an edge while trading with less developed countries. Pakistan needs to carefully negotiate the terms of trade with other countries, Pakistan should not compromise its long-term economic growth goals while pursuing medi erm trade arrangements. Akbar Zaidi asks the question of whether Pakistan needs to trade with India meaningfully or can it remain in the bubble of a “non-peace, non-war environment Though there are two views on trade with India; Zaidi is emphatic that trade with India would be beneficial to Pakistan, Moreover. trade with India would help to bring down hostilities between the two countries. It is hard to understand why’ the pro- status quo forces in Pakistan are opposed to trade with India Despite the so-called claims of “independent forcign policy:” various Indian governments have not been able to pursue an independent foreign policy post-Nehru. Indian governments post-Nehru have been as much influenced by the US. the West ‘and important countries in the Middle East for decades as Pakistani governments have been for ages, Indian governments have been as much controlling and influencing their Indian civil society, academic, media and other organs of the state and society for decades as much as Pakistani governments have been controlling their civil society, academia, media, and other organs of the state and society just like the rest of the world whether the US, the UK, the Middle East or the rest of the world. Whether it is the developed world countries or developing countries; the governments control and influence the rest of the society and the government and the state institutions. So, when Pakistan and India are both in the Western camp and have been influenced by the West and are still being influenced by the West: why are the pro-status quo forces in Pakistan opposing open trade with India” Is it t0 Keep the narrative of the “hostility with India alive” for the sake of showing it to the public, so that they can claim large amounts of the budget for their institutional interests year after year, decade after decade? Right now, direct trade between India ‘and Pakistan is not high in volume and indirect trade through a third country oF smuggling is much greater. ‘The actual trade (the ‘majority being the illicit trade) is four to five times greater than the official trade, And it incurs a loss to both countries, For example, as far back as 2004, it was estimated that Pakistan could save $110 million a year ifit directly bought tea from India rather than Kenya or any other source, Other statistics paint a similar picture, Pakistan is losing out by not trading with India. Due to this reason, civilian governments in Pakistan have been for opening up trade with India but it has been opposed by the status-quo forces in the country. Zaidi refers to the Ministry of Commerce study in Pakistan, “The study looked at a number of sectors in the Pakistan cconomy and concluded that ‘the economic benefits of liberalising trade with India outweigh costs’. Consumers in Pakistan would benefit “unambiguously because of lower prices, and the government will get far greater revenue from legalising the existing illicit trade, Moreover, ‘important segments of producers would also benefit because of increased competitiveness and market access to a much larger Indian economy,” Whether it is ade with China, CPEC. or rade with India; the government and the state in Pakistan must do thorough homework and look at the long-term growth prospects of the country and play to its advantage while minimising the risks, There would certainly be costs of opening up the trade but the benefits outweigh them. (Fogia Sadiq Khan, Published in Daily Times on May 28, 2022) READ RIGHT Read Right Institute | www readrighinstitute com [0301 4184111 [0333 4184111THE RETURN OF THE GREAT POWER RIVALRIES Similarities from the past There are similarities between events in Europe today and what happened in the late 19th and early 2oth centuries. What triggered the great power secusity competition in the run-up to the First World War was the phenomenal rise of Wilhelmine Germany as a military and industrial power and the regional hegemons” response to it When Otto von Bismarck became the Minister-President of Prussia in September 1862, there was no unified German state. Prussia was part of the loose, ineffective German Confederation, Bismarck adopted an aggressive foreign policy. fought and won three wars — with Denmark. Austria and France — destroyed the confederation, established a stronger and larger German Reich that replaced Prussia, In the last 20 years of Bismarck's reign. Germany, and Europe at large, saw relative peace. That was not because the Chancellor had tured a peacenik but because he was constrained by the geopolitical realities of Europe. Bismarck stayed focused on transforming, Germany internally in his last two decades, It was on the foundation Bismarck built that Wilhelmine Germany tured to weltpoliik in the carly 20 century, socking global domination. If Bismarck inherited a weak, loosely connected group of German speaking entities in 1862, Russian President Vladimir Putin got a Russia in 2000 that was a pale shadow of what was the Soviet Union, Russia had lost huge swathes of territories, its economy was in a free fall, its currency had crashed, the living standards of millions of Russians had collapsed and the global stature of the country, which had been one of the two pillars of the post-War global order for almost half a century, had fallen, Bismarck spent his years in power expanding the borders of Germany and building a stronger state and economy. His successors 100k it further to challenge the existing great powers in Europe. The post-Cold War Russia initially stayed focused on the restoration of the state and the economy, and then sought to expand its borders and challenge the continent’s balance of power — first the Crimean annexation and now the Ukraine invasion. The existing great powers in Europe saw Germany as a threat to Europe's balance of power and joined hands to contain its rise. Germany, on the other side, saw the formation of the Entente as aan existential threat and took steps to weaken the alliance (The 1905 and 1911 Morocco crises and the German intervention in the Bosnia crisis in 1908). The parallels are hardly to be missed If Germany was seen as a revisionist power back then, Vladimir Putin’s Russia is today’s revisionist power in Europe, If Germany felt insecure by the Triple Entente, as wy Tschirschky warmed in 1906, Russia tas UM) constantly voiced concerns about the eastward “ READ RIGHT expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty ADAG Organization (NATO). If the Entente countries looked at the rise of Germany as a threat (0 European power balance, the western alliance continued to see ‘modern Russia as a security challenge, even after the collapse of the Soviet Union. While NATO's expansion deepened Russia's security concems, driving it into aggressive moves, Russia's aggression has strengthened NATO's resolve to expand further into Russia's neighbourhood, On ‘offensive realism’ The behaviour of 20th century Germany and 21st century Russia can best be explained using what John Mearsheimer calls “offensive realism”, Offensive realists argue that “revisionist powers” tend to use force to rewrite the balance of power if they find the circumstances are favourable, while the status quo powers, or the existing regional hegemons, would seek {0 thwart any new country attaining more power at their expense, The result of this type of competition is permanent rivalry and conflict. Look at Mr. Putin's offensive moves. He sent troops to Georgia, practically ending that country’s NATO. ambitions, He took Crimea without fighting a war. He sent troops to Syria not just to save the regime of Bashar al-Assad and protect Russia's Mediterranean naval base in Tartus but also to neutralise Turkey and Israel, both Syria's neighbours. He reinforced Russia’s primacy in Central Asia by bringing peace to the Nagorno-Karabakh and dispatching forces to restore order in Kazakhistan. These successes probably raised the confidence of Russia, prompting its leaders to believe that it was finally strong enough to change Europe's balance of power forcefully. Then, Russia invaded Ukraine. But one major difference between the cera of Wilhelmine Germany and modem Russia is that there wer ‘no well-defined international laws in the 19th and early 20th conturies, The international system has evolved ever since, But its basic instincts, as realists would argue, have not changed ‘much, Mr. Putin's Russia is not the first country that violated the sovereignty of a weaker power and flouted international laws in the “rules-based” order. Nor will it be the last. As the Athenians {old the Melians during the Peloponnesian War, “the strong do ‘what they can and the weak suffer what they must” Security competition As the Ukraine war grinds into its fourth ‘month, there are no clear winners in Europe, Russia apparently had two strategic objectives in Ukraine — one, to expand Russian borders and create a buffer. And (vo, (0 reinforce Russia’s deterrence against NATO. While Russia has succeeded, though slowly, in expanding its borders by capturing almost all of Ukraine's east, the war has backfired on its second objective Russia's inability to clinch a quick outright victory in Ukraine and the tactical retreats it has already made have invariably dealt a blow to the perception of Russian power that existed before the war, This has strengthened NATO, driving even Sweden and Finland into its arms. Besides, the economic sanctions would leave a long-term hole in Russia's economy. But a Russia that is bogged down in Ukraine and encircled by NATO need not cenhance Europe's security. Russia's advances in Ukraine may have been slow: if seemed ready to fight a war of attrition like the long wars European countries fought against each other in the past. And despite the strong resistance it faced in Ukraine, Russia remains too strong a military and geopolitical power to be brushed aside. As Henry Kissinger said at Davos, Russia had been and would remain an important element in the European sate system, The prospects are bleak. There will not be peace in Europe unless either Russia accepts its diminished role and goes info another spell of strategic retreat (like it did after the disintegration of the Soviet Union), or Europe and the West in general accommodate Russia’s security concerns. Both look Read Right Institute | www readrighinstitute com [0301 4184111 [0333 418 4111unalisic a of today, "This means Unt een if the war in Ura canes tc seat ots Ege woul {oh continue. The post-Cold War period of relative peace and ReaoReT Sho in Eps anchored In al iteunatn, oes eae aberration rather than a norm in the continent’s long history of i ‘conflicts, And what makes the latest round of great power rivalry more dangerous is that there are nuclear weapons on both sides, (Stanly Johny. Published in The Hindu on May 30, 2022) Read Right Institute | www readrighinstitute com [0301 4184111 |0333 418 4111