10 January 1969 co Dear Mr. Murpty: Ia Mr, Jonneon's aboence, Lam sending you the sttached tlie of Professor Bell's paper for the iderberg meeting. Sincerely yours, (Q4es.) Martha Sue Tharp [Aesstant tothe Presicem ‘Te Hon. Robert. Margy (Corning Glass International 0 Fit Avene New Yorky New York 10022‘Columbia University inthe City of New York | New York,NY. 10027 Paper for the BilerberyConterence: Outline ( January 9, 2969) ‘The Sources of Instability in the Untted States Denied Beir T, The Crisis of ( at worst) Legttinaoy; (at best) of eredititty, 8) Phe Vietnen var, The war Se without pa Enanerican nistory ts that ie°40 90 . Soveliy anbtsuous ir not dubisus oye larte pert of the sopuiationy andy in the somsuse Of the A@uinistration { particularly the offtetel guste tn 19aicSe Pe provlen of SEevaten Eron Riseia, to Soilviay The ghenetion of toe magica, rots, na siege handy i wogid sey tant th ne besianiag stiugels" ef the postrindustrial, society Sonker-eaol ot intustrias ral 2, The Pensions of Ineluston. Te saree Te ereatnety degitinntod sire‘Columbia University in the City of New York | New York,NY. 10027 ee 3s Structured changes in the Soctety: The Hulttple Revoluttons. stort tua Stlenpt, senenattenlty So iseatity £86" Shia Fa Metal tence 0 5 ae eect ees 2 of the bincks to the north ‘oe ereation of ¢ ations Sootetr. The Sosleiy Tn"etsGh phangee ena snecuh feevgees part bave immediate repereussions t= Shseatre: 2) fw rise of sooemnskat ( fone poltsteat) Stenuae. politics dea visisue seca, SLOSS Ge chafiseed faterentiy sleiiy 2) tog cerand for "prose righta™ SEhastined stent fakes‘Columbia University inthe City of New York | New York N.Y. 10027 sootety Viemnisal ae gy. the, seeate) Te the etekenpers chon for sats icge Sb ERvdeabiy cones unser attace hs Toe Criste of Liberaiion, A) mye burden of potteten, toa pore polivical tie iiberes pot. tn fh 3) The nck of ashe sive Sfueaalpaane tre ef a nore’ gt SRAEMIESS Zale etenat eS Seal HEEIderberg Conference Sources of Ietabity i the United Seats Es Sources aio of Quration For anyone considering he United Stats Ite more than «decade 4 gieton aout the sources of pla and social nsatny moi sceg a Inoprotabe ne, The United Staten wen then seomingly the hep pe Powers, The Gone worl, ater he 186 97 crete Rast oo agey, ‘a aparently tang nto caneray. Domenica, tere ha bees ee ney relatively igh prosperity at sable pices, The trent ot macaw {ptemiom eth sade of oe Mary tts depen a ed al Justice for the Nogroet was under vay, bgunag wih fn cpa Sprme Court deciain of 1984 (rown ve Berd of Eaton a Tape) ‘hich had lgitinate the Negro lan for itpeton, ate Sissy iat ea te wey eo stng nl rap mt Arkansas, Suter commun, to sone the ight of ack chr to tecer wt scons. Like te pi oremaiy of Presfen Etscanoet Nise the comiry seed Band, sci aneured, md eoferw advnce te roost Plneinoan conepons 0 univcasio alot snee si progres st sLomed own vo tat by the end of the decade W was no ngersning a ficient rate to match the increases inthe labor force adn prot From 1955 to 190, the labor force grew ats rate of 1S percents Year wile Productivity was rising ata tre rate of 3:2 percent. We would have reared [growth m O.N.P. of abot 4.8 percent to provide he secessary tuner Joe to met thse growths, tut stp, wich ha been a igh 5.2 perce 1 yore berwcen 194) and 1952 slowed to 2-4 percent boone 195) sad 16 ‘tad the rent was an fncreat in unemployment. By te ed of the cde, “employment tad risen to more than 6 perce f the inter force fue cause {he grater numberof unemployed were Mack and uns, with ie means {or Becoming paiically effective, the saemployment station, for th wie tron igoreds Toward the end of i erm, PretdetElsetower bps roming Tikege nuger deci to ncreae demand, tte elt dnt Feoch Erving ‘umber of hard-core” unemployed tne forig ed, te victory of il Cur in Cab, an he sup rch sso hi ter mache i ot Cntr a ‘So mbling State Deparment pe neo spre sons pone ‘oc tots te Mester ftphere, Ante Unie Ses es Srpaite Clandering ctor oovrtow He headin he Komey amr ms a vn nt ctv moet toom an be etective-in any Leper, Both i he {eiogpilgas wel teat home, stmalated and ulead te forces of trtlence2 which rack the United Sates today. In foreign affairs there was, first, the ‘isaster at the Bay of Pgs--the humiliation of American power 2nd Guertin of tus will. “At Viena, Khrushchev thought he fd taken the measure of Joa F Kennedy and was emboldened to place missiles Sn Cub, a confrontation fers ‘which he backed down and restored the creit of Kennedy. la Vietnam, where Eisenhower had shied away from large-scale commitments (despite the pressure of Secretary Dulles and Chef of Staff Radiord), Keanody made the fateh decisice, after the fall of Diem, to sep up American activity in the fel and to move American soliers snd weapon into direct ction, despite «warning by Under-Secretary George Bll about the draticconsequcacen of that move la the domestic Held, the Kennedy administration Degen hltershelter ‘ttre to improve the lot of the poor andthe Black, but one ofthe parndoncal Consoquences of those efforts, notably Ia the poverty program, wae to provide ‘Tange sumer of Jobe and to create small politcal bases ad machines for ‘Setivists who would use thelr positions to ofguaize community action grasp ‘indo increase pollical aptation in the black and poor communities. A revo Intionary movement always has the problem of bow to finance is activites and to provide time for functionaries fo ply thelr agitation: one of the astonishing Aspects of the Kennedy, and Jace, war on poverty war to facilitate the {growth ofa movement which woud, in part, mount political pressure, if not politcal war, on the hdminietrtion tell, [would be absurd to aseume that uch agitation and turbulence might soc have come tothe fore. The classic ilustraton ofthe trajectory ot ‘xpectations, fist laid down by Tocqueville and repeated tediouslysisce then by socal scieait, fella ut tat no society which promises fstice ant slowly begins to open the way, having adit the legitimacy ofthe claims, fan expect to rie out the consequent whirivied i a cemforable fasten. [But along with the rising tamalt of the lacks and the disadvantaged came a8 smbigious war, and the combination of the tro, Which Feinforced each oe Is lett sing domerc violence, the alienation ofthe youth, and the roving challenge tothe legitimacy of the aystem among the nteligenB andthe leadership cadres of the Young al of which hae Brought into question the sony stably ofthe aye tel ‘would be equally folah to ausume that immediate and manifest ‘causes, important as they are, can wholly Gsoriatsaoclty ab large sod Doverful asthe United States.” Underneath, there have cccarred wpbesvas ‘cological an tecnolopical, which have ben reworking te social stature the society. These changes, four in mumber-—the simultineoas creation ‘tan uri sciey, sational polity, communal society, ad a post= ‘Sdunral world. -wilculagt the immediate viscasiades ofthe war and [poverty snd contione fo create deper apesvale and tensions i the soci ‘Kat toyed tone stroctural chages lathe socterye three other ares of ‘itaetty which wil profoundly affect the future ofthe United Sat {he relation of democracy fo empire and the question wheter any democracy ‘en matin an imperial roe; the parcipation reveutice, with x challenge‘change scale, wih onamentalat-ratona sed antler fas ‘ay paper seriouay considering te fous ofthe United Staten wuld spears the stracual change’ and he nde ues of value and ‘Ad if ones wo cenider these questions inthe ght of the pote of soil fi pital tty one ma al for ‘The hey question for any politcal yates he timp Max Weber over Mest contemporary scl thoughts te lgimacy of fhe system. ha Se ML Ligne as wee Lgpamacy ame te crac of eye emer whic contemporary democratic plea! tstems are legate depeds In large measure upon the mye le wich SEA iro ech ve oly vse cay nile eactienes primarily tntromentl logtitcy igerlatre_ Grae emt tcl gwen a ena an teaty a sumber of actors whch, fm varying combustion, have Fea ‘Stee seca acy of the eeciey cod Ue consoqnt noe o lgiamecy forte pact ste 1. Tae estence oan “ingle” pote: The snemployment problem of the 1900's was repay mont sce ae teshne Clery oft targets domacratc ropes tner what fo reverse ‘apres. Every Mestre suet was plunged ints css atthe ne. TwatSpain, 2 te 1950 ana 19906, the coninoaton as perliamestary impusce, rested iy the polarization of forces inthe society, impeded any elective overs Stone and contributed toa tens of beplesness Inthe populace which was crystal {ed ether inthe action of mob, ofan authoritarian Setar, or «military coup, 3, The grow of private volene: In Germany, and in similar countries, te crenionof private uraes” and the growth of open street wolence, unces (Wold Wythe government leat the Breakdown of author. 4, Toe guncure of etreecnte of pd inferializaion ome srcsanie nega oo! agnor I ata Bt 85 5. Muli-racal or mult-trbalconicts~as in ta, before partition eorees nd and Muslim, of in India herwen ferent language gT4ps Nieristenven the repons representing sleet tries; Begin between ‘idan and Walloon: in Coandaherween English and French, ee. —-are a8 reine umlatig. can ‘Spy 08 their nnance ofan Ocigena! power losing tan Oriol doe snc the avastns ot Genghis Kaan an Tenelae, represented» great Prycntpcal humiliation fo the couty Latin Amerie, the ire eo op nce tne Mexconovetrow ofthe ting tater Frio Das, i 10, cam ‘nin 8S, wis te van Sonal Revion-"deapte the previous rise of ‘trate, Commun, poplin snd ndgeia movements tnoveon te to Mor ce eked ine waar eprint len of he sce td ed ‘tant of young middle clas wes cod hale to reject completely tein Pl Such te not amare, bt oes em phe mar pie xe ‘SoS, Store feciteatys of the core wach coe can ely a he sures {tient ihe Vana ase of Yate Tmt of {Se ct, tn te ity ot il probleme ec ee fom ea 7 gem erie § Kein: “The Crise of Legtimacy and te Origins of Social Reolo~ ‘Son: Te Bian fagerionce, journal of eter American Snes, Jamary 160.smablized sociegy. was moilized ‘primarily, ro mest te treat of ateratinal omsiem Aer en lial Se ought abot avast expansion of conventional arn force, NATO and SEATO. {he es time in American bony permanent miltaryesaistnan had be Steed. Since, inconterale measure, was motiseds'well Te wot pies in mir chloe catn opto mt. ea? tes enpuson of resent sad devsopnn nde ng eo cesreh ite Sone and eniverais fo pneramen, ‘A society mobized © mest an eternal threat, where that treat cin be ‘sambigoly defied, ufos «county. eterna visions are minimised or ested over campronn fe mae. tdi comes fans en ea Stara. ts mrhing to recall tat nthe 1900, the United See wae ee ‘asp lator srs which n bt ntenty approached the clascal aie ecepions of ate clas iio. Ye wen Word War I broke st, hare fererenn whe nota soe wares concen conan et {550K te treat ofan aggressive Gnmmuninn,parclary chet he fast Boepess Dee iil, the sear of Cauchoslvaia ta he deleesrntn of Masts fod ‘Se tecirclemen of Beri, rough bea Commun othe oper ts poe: ‘mene sans at thee = By te end of th 950, the station hd changed. International Ommusia, anaes sett Ei ange ant ‘roving id oT and even Gana, the Soe Un na sll een ‘han a Sslogial fervor. The matali which had snimated Aveican ecconyout to repr wo Castro alongwith Cb, bad shown tht the Leia yh choice eens ping say cl peeesve esest episigs fhe Roch 0 te 986, tnd bon stpprevod, nd lctiat ‘ideale arena Sigar a area imperecal word ‘excepon “The degree ational conenav, a par ogy wlingagrecmen Ielgntata part ofthe cltral ebln an ant oarpeve ate the United Sates which ges tack principally tothe period before Wort War who Van Wek Bria pctag up the Gtntins of Mathew Art, vided “he soley ito Nghe and middlcbrows, and together wit other tere eam atk nthe portant” ofthe cute; and, in oder measure, the Jefe thes ca the fates of anarchism and ae, x sew aguas the ‘ncrening pressures of te tcincrate orpmieaton of Me the Scie fete re pervasive, How Od ial ome abe? a “Te stating ptt for any sca ngsry is “Why ao, nt te wy ‘ere, nat thre The primary Coe tthe ching plea! ol he Ames ty porser ts Negi Und Sake eda Sh 8 1960, say percent we ve there. 1960 ae “ing ene ‘at ot a he Rego paplaton was twin he North, andthe ace ‘bom stig srogly is Sade ews ot nly thatthe Nogro habe leaving the South: be a became srtotzed i wil. T1910, Jat about hrc four the Nogroe ved i [Rta 14 sme’ ctu ned incten. ted, a ce rte sory, ‘Noproes tad becote mare Bum moving Noth od tecming MF, selicant new pattern wat ‘evlpig at wll cncetetion of epics inti major einen, Tho,in 1960, there were over one milion Negroes in New York City, about 890,000 in Chicago, 670,00 in Philadelphia, $60 000 in Detrct, and more than 35,000 fm Los Angeles. By contrast, the largest southern concentrations were 218,000 ‘Negroes In Houston and 186,000 ia Aaa ‘These concentrations have gone together with another sola development the movement, sometimes a fight, ofthe white population tothe eubutbe, hie ‘nie meant tat within the central city linits, the Negro popalation forme 4 sigai- ‘ant proportion ofthe whole, Perhape symbolic ofthe change isthe fact tat Neqges cents more tan yt acento he polation of Washington, Wnt this population density and socal weight have done ist give the ack community the possiblity of polltal leverage which a valid polity could exploit effectively. Tals developing political ower is the ymportat background ‘enton why the Negroes have been ale te demand, more succesfully than ever bore, a change inthe pattern of power ‘This changing demographic and pltical map alows us to sce hw the ‘ack community Bins to Be able to moblize effective socal power, ut by Atel does nt explain the trajectory of he “civil ight revolution, "the fmergeat Mack nationallom, or the temper of te Back militants. “he turning pont in the civil righ revolution was, clearly, the Supreme Soar Seiten i Bay. 199, obs etch Sorat peep eget Public school. In 30 doing, ie emphustand the meaning ofthe term squliy 4 {he overriding value i Judging social change. It stated that Macks ould Rive ‘ul and equal acceas to pale facilites cad services inthe nation, at there ‘were two further sociological censequenes to this decision. One waste fact ‘Bathe highest cour inthe land hd egimated the demands of the Negroes at ‘econ, thatthe moral inate ba past tothe bande ofthe Hacks The Irden of prot was now no longer onthe Neg ut onthe wt Wont te Court had done was to amit he Motors injustices dne to the Negroes (pectcally, an 1883 Supreme Court ation declaring leg the pat (Cui War Tepslaton of Congress which, at tat time, tad granted fll cv "ght to Negroes; that Court action tad pene the way to “im Crow,” oF Segregation, laws by southern state). eso doing, the Court made ie iicle {ar ay person oF group to oppose the deriands ofthe bitcks even when some of ‘lone miasie becomes even more lalate,“* ‘The chief dilemma, of course, {a the definition of "slow." When expectations of change rise rapidly, the trajectory of hope inevitably will spiral faster Gan realty. Inevitably there will bea disiction between objective change and sub Jective assessment. Many Hacks, for example, claim that conditions for ther Inve worsened. But what they clearly mean i that they are ot where they expected toe. A conservative measures socal change by the distance from the past: & evolutionist from some mark in the future, If one looks at the record, a number of distinct gains have been registered. The Mrgest gains have been among the [Negro middleclass, In the area of income, the percentage of families wi sacome of $7,000 oF more (in 1965 dallars) has risen sharply Family Income of $7,000 oF more Negro 195s, 9% 1966 28 s South 1s “ Outside the South 38 Py In education, the picture shows equal trends. In 1960, 36 percent of [Negro males and 63 percent of whites over 25 years of age hd completed high school by 1966 the figures were 53 percent or Nogro and 73 percent for white fales. In higher education, in 1960, 3.9 percent of Negro males and 15.7 percent of whites fad completed collage. In 1966, 7.4 percent of Negro males Sod 17.9 percent of whites bad completed college, an increase of 90 perceat [Negro colloge graduates over the periad.* But cven sucha picture of advance masks a more complicated aspect of mobility ia the American social strcire. Ione looks atthe various stadia tl achievement in the United States, most notably the so-called Coleman report fn performance inthe schools, itis cleat tht ot race’ut soclal classe the [rary variable. The educational achievement of «child Is associated primarily Wvith class miles rather than race, religion, or color. ‘The crucial point ‘Course, is that racial discrimination has bee one ofthe chief mesae of mlataining lass distance, and this bas bocome the source of attack by the blacks. Thi {@e current demand ofthe young blacks is primarily for open admission ofall Lacks to colleges, often regardless af performance or standards, since college 4 clearly neon asthe major route of scial mobility. One ofthe roajor variable ‘All gutes are taken from the report, Sccial and Economie Conditions of NNegrows inthe United States, October 1967, a Joint report ofthe Buren {of tabor Statistics andthe Bsreau of the Censustherefore, in any assesement of future strain sheet 0 future strain inthe soclety isthe measure of the success in changing the class balance of the secety. ‘The factors we have enumerated so far, repating the posta of he Bsc Anvolve the changing demographic and politcal weigns, he lepmatcnofderants Adan identification ofthe ocl pot changes “To is, one to 28s, scone, {major consideration teparding ony social moveren-the mature af ts leadcap. ‘he sing new leadership ofthe back ls young. mila, tnd sarenive in this there isa curious poyehologal prado, i that a second generation wich as uot experienced the kind of Greet mato fact on thei elds, ant Which nas often (Inthe ease fray figures) received spec large, Ie Deyebologically more assertive and more outspoken end exrene, There ate several fnterewind reascne for this: the sieve, facing more ict circumatance, ad to be more accommodating in order to achlve gain, ad inthe process cites ‘cquted an incr stlclam the young can bo more extreme bctun here are fever “penalties” and, Indeed, tore reverie. Since the ovral asic i a Princo receptive change, lndviuns cas more eaiy outdone ster i Eeing more “leh and more extreme". More mporant, perhpe, i te ert 0 [chive an internal cobesion sd «grou Ket the anservecnpasaon netics. tera commen past, onthe postive fstares of ck ie becomes a necensery mate Sf achieving a sense of paychic tdependence iti a necessary one for tea prop. “And raucous a8 this process may be iy group which secks f0 achlewe a coherent sense of Itself ta sum, the major thrust of the blacks in American life, in politics and in economic ie, isnot an effort to “overthrow” the society, ut an efor to change drive for inclusion, ina radical way, accompanied by & ‘Cltural and peyctological mood which, paradoxically, emphasizes revolutionary ‘Sentiments. The fact thatthe blacks are auch a smal minority ofthe country Seri eta tamiprsam centers pees ey seston cette, arcs sean cance ere Sethe ge eal agug diet tig e Sires guy te ne’ ee er irae wee hee once, esa eine Seer crear ec “The Crisis in Creaialiny.we, however, itevay revel cso the source of sy ony {some pi dna at tothe xadtional sectors ote which have tec oll which aed the queton: "At the prescat tine, so Jou thet rains ‘hole t increasing its inflvence on American life ong its wliaece os ws sec 36 Protestant sins Ape 962 soc 987 Process $ Sime variants of thete questions reveal the sadings of theve traded ‘moods. To the question, tn July 1948, "Do You bellow life oy Ie petng eter or worse i terme of fligin? Beer Worse NoDterence No Opinion Neon 38 om 6s as Protestant 4 0 . Ceaie ° ” : ‘To the question: "Do you believe Wa fe geting beter of worse in terme Mer Wore nano Proeevamt Commie 8 0Both questions are somewhat inexact, sd one cold arp that some Andiviuals might fel that lf e geting worse cane religion wet tn eogh {or social change, and some becasse flight i becoming ts ane woud have to provide more deuiled breakdowns fo explore tee nace. twat flee ‘i the deep pessimism of the country and, i 90 gos back tothe set question, the remartable ahi of mod within the cade What i string of course, ts tae Wis aft of mood pales the ght years of the Kenedy a Jotnacesdtlateations, the yrs tthe New Feetier Tod'he Great Society. The singular qulity othe “one ofthe New Prostior was Ata sense of promise, syntolized inthe vibrant words sf the Kennedy inaugural speech and te the fan which characterized the arrival fnew generation Pilica, How docs onc account forte change of ocd in thr decade? Ove a8 aly be schematic, and indeate four cto 1. The Matic of Socal Protons tn the decade sod half after World War Il, the country had been oes ‘primarily toward exeraal fairs. Equally the remartale performance of ‘Kmercan inde (ad the peychlogcal it occasioned by te fact at there twee mo economic dopreasion after the war, ough it had bee widely forecast by ‘Senumisu) seemed to lndicate that ecimome growth would, i time, sve all ‘Sicilprotleme, "Toe phrase The Aiues octery, a aed by J» K. Galbraith, Seemed ar the psa, gh beer ie te arene! pre ‘Toe nepectd inthe Ast eoporic reviews ote bk Ie he soe of pie agatr wc sn age mente repo the rowing wenn eo T Heenan 2 Dra i ‘Shes cms, Teonaghcorake fr second i tht eu at very ert Moet nines mc aoc ein pein en Sovery, tousng. education, medial cre, urban prev, crvrvamental pollen, Terra ibe,” One te cue haa, ther was Fecption che poor. Ov he ter there wae the poyholgial oct, a first renarted on y Berra Joven (Sac tomien wove tng tht the incomer had outed, Dot Da they Were no {tog eice esata Beare. Wether sch questions ae tlle” mot nt fares cain wt te pnt atest Ba wat a clent tat tpi Deh Nesereen hee mil cal qwaos ha ea trent Taig + ‘Taco mae tv 2. Tie ack Rw and Crime. From 19631 1967 there were “vet summers" in which, cach ye,‘ere was a crescendo of rioting that, Senor sane ge eng ht Deming ah Suh, ped cyto ‘Newatk and Washington, eecises of cach Sit west up in smoke. The Kerner Commission reports have shove ths a of these riots was organized. In ach irtance, email event, sams se tence ‘police brutality, or alleged police brtality, became fare f wid rome ‘ud the tnderbor exploded. At in any vocal movement, wid, epneie, raging Setuvior sigs a first phtve of action. ‘The ner ans ln an ctor tocrene ‘ore disciplined militant actions. Inthe Mack cernmunis ny, any coera: ‘lctory currents are at work, ‘There is predominantly the tack eatooiian which ‘now secks to build distinct Back onto, td makes militant demands esources towards thve goals. Dut there are alts movemeats suchas te ack Paothers which emphasize gerrllaacics snd whieh are randy to lik up ath white radial movements ‘Te growth of back miltancy isi cosiderstle measure reapensie for ‘cover white “tacKashes,"a series of actions expressed most vividly. for 8 hile, inthe Wallace movement. Typically, the suppor or Wallace i the North ‘Came mainly from Blue-collar workars and the etic groupe n'ehich they pre ‘ominate, forthe stmple reason that thes gross, ta states adjacent toe ack, have felt the most threatened. As upwarly mobile groupe, these workers have ought their own homes and created wall teghbrid td tey fel at hese focused principally on exime. To what extet crime has acaly increased ia the nation i dificult to determine. ‘The F. 8. I. evime der is ntorsulyaneeliahe nd statically wholly inadeqate. The weryaature ofthe gone stati ech {ai to une age-epecfc rates, or deflate for pice change, od which jm Aitferent crimes into single toa) pots heny “nflonsry bn int the crime atte fe enety Bt age aot ear eel ree sen ofrine, cn se at ces tht he len umber ferns tay are commited by Negrors. ‘This, in ae bl ocason Sso-surprise, Crime a form of "unorganized" clase struggle, andthe lowest (supe inthe soctety have always Comntted te lopropertionste number of cree ‘Wc was i the past truco the Trahan te Iain tr ofthe Negroes tn. [Bu Nog crime more "vibe", and, meshed withthe general tensions Ia te ne ca nd many sources forth roving sag of youth Amer snd n any sdvanced Industria society. There irs common sretual sou ‘Sichine'weckng mover ofthe alsa pera prsnged be worter-coplnerclass confets of dunia society A post-industrial society has many features, bt the princi one is te changed educational Teqirements inthe tie. ha educa! ayetes which ‘used to reflect the status structure of the society sow becomes the determina of class positon inthe ster. ‘The secod face tat the work ol he Pot {ndueral society becomes more and move tecaicl and, int creasing seca ‘ation snd vision af aber, one inde a Dureacratizatin of etllectnletploymest Jet as ealler there occurred the reahdove of sll among artians and stalled Techanics. (The fact tat «post-industrial society canon conte wer the tmodel fa hierarchical, epetlizd division flor and mut fn new colle {Tod "task” forces of orgataation io another queen The fact i hatin hewe ‘itty stages tbe older pater of erganzation ate being repeated.) tn American society ove finds these feares among the young. There is a trting change of coort, om lneTease of about one-third i heir umber, and 1 Sonseqlemt sense of ncreased competion for pace. There iva reduction of toe rene ofthe ealege. A generation ago, going wo college wae ella catactive {aerate stars, Today, tate elt schools, more tun 85 percent ofthe gad Sict'po onto sou poot'gradste work, 0 atin tene places the college feces simpy ney sation, Tobe large pi nverties, to oe Mart thin means neresingpreerare cathe Young. In secondary achoo there arises Ge say ein get co college; will get inte & good college? Tn colege ere West ctacer can 1 get iar graduate ecool? Ine nature ofthe moders $SSDpcar nevatcon there ie the awareness that a college gros, eve a8 ‘Semel, ono loge the menne of sping ot te gh pans ney ‘eersng in onder to hep up with the new tecaigie an dew lnowlcdge Beng Senticede In shorts tach of the alien atc of the young i reaction tbe frit revolution tat bas taken pce tn thelr own a 4. The Vie War Ss oe een bwin ema ar Te ee ee puri! te American Retory. Tis prcsived as morally emt Tice sitios, by large porsic, perape tbe maori, ofthe population. And nt ne othe wer tere sarin fecal problem of crodiatiny mbch 15 2 Ste ace ie tentang fo Become» proiem of lopimacy Fe nchty. government, Coe can be opponed to the government, Yet 0 ll ‘ing o esc nthe Ue Sts, Deena wert ag ee ae prem, from an exe oom attParticularly true among the radial young in the United Sats, ‘The creditabi Ky Problem roe simply bce te ofc eptimiem ‘of the Administration, rc so on a ied ticulary daring 1964 an 1965, as beled y evo ‘Te decisions to icrouve the umber of ope, totalling «halt miliog Nee cane to bomb the North: to dfict peace attempt were continalyJuifiod othe eed tint “one more step" would move the United Satce to victory, To sone ence the personality of President Jotnson wa factor that his secretvenns aed ‘vilingess tobe frank abot epecfic station led to ncrensodsepicics sed skepticism onthe pat of many people. Bot tie was ut «ster oe person Alone, tata atnde throughout the government, A on pit the efedtaliy 6f the Council of Economic Advisors tan independent source of economic att ‘ra imperied because the Pentagon nd wield dats cathe spending Views Ad the eotinates ofthe Council were consderaly of, m comeruence, Bit obviously it hs not been a problem of creditability alone, There isthe ‘moral question thatthe means employed have bees highly disproportionate tthe ends ‘The mass bombing, the defoliation of large areas, the mass tranepaatig of he Population, the large number of deaths all alge crucial mor laues which the ‘Administration has by and large avoied, In the later years ofthe Johnson administce- ‘on, it became incrensingly clear ta the basic atratey inthe eld was being ‘ictated by the military, and such quertions ax means tad ends, or the politcal ‘etfcts of certain mulitary policies, were not being considered “The final clement inthe dlgrigolade ofthe Jaton policies was the evident ‘impotence ofthe miliary strategy. The bombing was highly Inefoctive. The search-and-deatroy tactics extended the American lines and left the cities wnerable {othe staning Tet offensive which erupted simultaneously at almost a hundred pont For the American right, this impotence is especially infuriating cause it chal- lenges the sense of omnipotence which his been one of the myth of American power. Ie has therefore demanded, as General Le May demonstrated in the 1968 campaign. the extension of bombing and the destiction of Haiphong, onthe ground hat sly ‘more massive action would win the wir. Yet the Aiminitration did aot purse {his line for the clear rearon that a further eecalation frm the American side ‘would be matched by an equal escalation of North Vietamese manpower and Soviet ‘rma. But this very admiosion, made privately, could only heighten the sense of a talemate, and of American impotetce. For the young, the Vietnam war has been the single most direct source of lenation. ‘The draft has increased saxty about careers andthe future. Service {nthe armed forces is often regarded.as at best a waste of Years and at worst an immoral complicity. Impotent themselves in afecting th courve of national policy for 40 they uve thught-vthe stant goneraton has turned Its fury against the University symbol ofthe scciety. As two obwervers of recent campus, ‘trike observed! "Until the war in Viczam became the central political issue of|the ation, the coalition of faculty, adm I admintrators, and back and white student sctvste wast state. Tent was gy ack stens ad wht ssn wie silitant in sme cases, were not yor revolutionary. By the endo 196, rus veri ls ‘appeared from the campus at Sate and, we expec, from many cher campuses as well For the radical student, the University (snot a disinterested sanctuary where ‘truth ts sought but an institution which meses with other sections ofthe society, and {im particular, in the case of research, withthe military. Tuat moch ofthis t= exag {erated ts beside the point. In turning aginst the society any relation with govern ‘ent becomes suspect, and inthe "dtancing” ofthe student from the society. "The system” becomes a reified villain guilty ofall crimes. It is this estrangement of « large section ofthe fture “elite” ofthe society from the society which Is the greatest ‘cor of the Vietnam war. Whether that extrangement can be overcome is equally fone ofthe great questions about the source of future stability ofthe United Sates. u “The Structural Revolutions inthe United Sates. ‘The discussion of any soctety risks the seduction ofthe transient andthe tumultos, These engage cur energies and our passion: they absorb us inthe resent. Some of theve lenses are conseqiental forthe future; some blaze fort, [ye qlckly tur to dry ashes. ‘any mouningful dlecuetion of» society hast ry to identity certain deeper, perstotent cements which are the shaping forces ofthe socety.. These are inthe eaim of values=-the leptimating clement of the society-of culture; the realm Stespscssive symboliom and sensibility; end of social structure, the at of socal Eeangements which deal with the dstiinion of persons in ocepation and inthe polity and wit the allocation of resources to meet stipulated social needs, Within he lita of the present paper, I shal have to concentrate onthe deeper -raning ‘Changes in social structure, and must necessarily, Because ofthe complexity of ‘ene changes, be schematic. Of the four malor structural changes i the soci eT efine them, the frat i the demographic transformation, the second the creation Ee SSicta socky, the hed the emergence of « communal soctety, andthe fourth coo induserta soclery- Al these are aking place almost simultaneously ‘ab Sachtontam ot hese multiple revolutons which. at fond, has generated 90 many ‘tains In the social system. 1. The Demographic Transformation ‘ince the end of World War I, there have been three major demographic changes inthe United Sater, The first has been a large popolation expansion. SIocond the rap urbanization ofthe country, ad = james MeBvoy and Abraham Miller, “The Crisis at San Prancioco State College,” Trans Acton, March 1969.ofthe central cities of the major ustun areas Sem 50 snr 200 pra sBouraetges arctica ers” ims Pantera faa oae ont ein ne casinne ee Towa pcan cerca oe eet te a Feccen mun pee epee Tsao Yea enc tegen ate teraensadinmen senate Tepuetncesoee ses enan eee PEAY om See eee etatree es cea: epee beeeroety Sete taetpiciedm pc orarea car ais ann wee eee re Seo ae ee —— pete eee Sa a fas reteereetieecereie pees ee ae Sot ERS toa ae Mas Sinise mstyaryor so en? coms renee a sunct ‘By 1980, 75 percent of he people athe Unite Stes wil reid io urban areas, Tere will be 15 cities with &popletin of 100,000 more, compared ‘Tth 100 tn 1960. ‘There wll be orice ta many metopaitan area wid over oe TRulice population, sod eleven areas Boston, New Vert, Pildsiphia, alimore- ‘Washington, Miah, Detot, Cevelang, Chicgo, St. Loui, Len Angses aod ‘Su Francieco‘Onlant) wil ave oer five milion. The New York metrpoian rea alone wil ave 20 illiontnabncs, (A¥ a corllary, the umber of ‘ttomobies se wil Hae from 59 lion in 1960 to lig above 120 min in.) ‘An within th central cto we ne equity import site. Fr 124010 arth is ne mec tar, there war an tlt eine Stace pp mh nea cs O93 ec, we Fart th mawhite patente enrl ces nreaea ty 29.9 percent REISCTacir opto perce ore long present movements ere,ten of the major cities of the United Sates willbe more than $0 percent Negro fashington, D. C., passed that mark almost a decade ago. Nevark. wich inthe 1960 census was 34.4 percent Negro, snow more than $0 percet Hack Ie Detroit, Baltimore, Cleveland, and S. Lovie, Negroes constitute more than © {third of the population. New Orleans, Memptis, and Alana are cach about 40 percent Negro. ‘To deal with such magnitudes on ote beter tha cite the tate ment of President Johnson 1967, la hs'Message onthe Cities” During the inex fifteen years, thity milion people wil be aed tthe cites, the equivalent of the combined pepltion of New York. cag, Los Age, Maa, Dero fd altimore, Bach year, inthe comiag generation, we will a the quale ‘of fikeen cities a7 90-000 persons each By 1978 we wil need two milion new “year over and above our present rate. We ill need schools for ten milion fo weltare and beats facilities for five million persons stn te remainder of hin century,” the President logs oited ut it is meconge, “Ucben population wll xe, city land wil double, and we wil have ts mld inour cities a» much aval that we have bu ince dhe first colonist omg ca thee shores, Mie au ifwebad forty years to rebild the eatreurtan ‘nites Sates.” Irs eis vast cemograpic wml nological upheaval which frames the present and foure tasks of American sie) 2, The Natoma Scie “re Ute Sate, forte sume, amnion mci 6 me seco + Taisen tne sent achieving s maton went anda satonal embol Src caly ta the nm ty years, because ofthe revolution a communica ‘i teanspruo, tat he Utes Sats haw acme ational sly edu a cacti shes cme ato lal” ees tios tacts ofthe race station, The pctres on nation tleiice cS tat mang tt Nore marchers in Selma, Altura, ought #0 wide are teen tata ory ight bare 10,000 people joined Martin Lther King “Tere are tree brood problems wich one can ieniy as consequence ‘ot the emergence of ational wie eae eee mates mena Teo nat semana maT SS