Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02396-2(0123456789().,-volV)(0123456789().
,- volV)

ORIGINAL PAPER

Spatiotemporal changes in Hourly Wet Bulb Globe temperature

in Peninsular Malaysia
Mohamad Rajab Houmsi1,2 • Zulhilmi Ismail1,2 • llya Khairanis Othman1,2 • Daeng Siti Maimunah Ishak1,2 •

Mohammed Magdy Hamed3 • Zafar Iqbal5 • Deprizon Syamsunur4 • Shamsuddin Shahid1,2

Accepted: 4 February 2023 / Published online: 22 February 2023

Ó The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023

Abstract
Global warming causes a temperature rise and alteration of other meteorological variables that directly or indirectly affect
human comfort. The wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) incorporates the effects of multiple meteorological variables to
provide a reliable measure of human thermal stress. Despite the large significance of WBGT on public health, studies
related to characterization and trends assessment of WBGT are limited in the tropical humid region like Peninsular
Malaysia due to the unavailability of all meteorological variables required for such analysis. This study employed
reanalysis meteorological data of ERA5 to assess the characteristics and changes in hourly, daily, monthly, seasonal and
annual outdoor WBGT over peninsular Malaysia for the period 1959–2021 using the Liljegren method. The WBGT values
were classified into five categories to assess the human thermal stress levels defined by the United States Department of the
Army (USDA). The mean daily WBGT in PM varies from 21.5 °C in the central south elevated region to 30.5 °C in the
western coastal region. It always reaches a heat-related illness risk level (31.20 °C) in the afternoon during monsoon and
extreme stress conditions during inter-monsoonal periods. The trend analysis revealed an increase in WBGT for all the time
scales. The higher increase in the mean and maximum WBGT was estimated in the coastal and south regions, nearly by
0.10 to 0.25 °C/decade. The increase in mean nighttime WBGT was 0.24 °C/decade, while in mean daytime WBGT was
0.11 °C/decade. The increase in WBGT caused a gradual expansion of areas experiencing daily WBGT exceeding a high-
risk level for 5 h (11 AM to 3 PM). The information and maps generated in this study can be used for mitigation planning
of heat-related stress risk in PM, where temperature extremes have grown rapidly in recent years.

Keywords Human heat stress  Hourly heat risk levels  Spatiotemporal trends  Peninsular Malaysia

1 Introduction (Liang et al. 2012). In many indoor and outdoor locations,

Climate change is the most serious threat that modern
humans have ever faced. It has affected the lives of billions
of people worldwide, with little or no sign of slowing down
(Hamed et al. 2022a; Trenberth et al. 2018). People and
ecosystems with the least adaptation capability suffer the
most (Shahid 2010). Extreme weather events, a major
contributor to climate change, are the first major threat to
human survival (Andrews et al. 2018a; Hamed et al. 2022b;
Kyaw et al. 2022). Increasing extreme heat stress is one of
climate change’s most imminent and certain impacts
(Alamgir et al. 2019b). This will put workers’ health at
risk, reduces productivity, and causes various safety issues
Extended author information available on the last page of the article
especially in low- and middle-income nations, air condi-
tioning is not currently an option and may never be
(Kjellstrom et al. 2009a). Heat exhaustion and heat stroke
can occur because of exposure to high temperatures,
potentially reducing labour productivity and increasing the
risk of temperature-related mortality (Alamgir et al. 2019a;
Antonio et al. 2015; Dunne et al. 2013; Kjellstrom
et al. 2009b; Salehie et al. 2022). Global climate change,
which boosts average temperatures and changes the dis-
tribution of daily peak temperatures and relative humidity,
will cause heat stress conditions to occur more frequently
and be more severe (Clark et al. 2006; Khan et al.
2019, 2020; Kjellstrom 2009).
It is always challenging to assess and translate thermal
stress into psychological and physiological strain

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2328 Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347
(Ahammed et al. 2020; Alamgir et al. 2019b; Blazejczyk
et al. 2012; Park et al. 2014). Over the last century, many
attempts have been made to develop heat stress measuring
indices (Epstein and Moran 2006). The aim was to incor-
porate the different factors’ effects in any human thermal
environment. Haldane (1905) was likely the first to suggest
that the best method to describe heat stress is the wet-bulb
temperature as a single index, followed by a plethora of
indices proposed by different researchers (Belding and
Hatch 1955; Dufton and Fishenden 1929; Fanger 1970; Hill
et al. 1916; Houghten 1923; Ionides et al. 1945).
Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is one such index
developed in 1950 as a part of research on heat-related
injuries during military training in the United States Navy
(Yaglou and Minaed 1957). It can be calculated using
surface air temperature, radiant temperature, humidity, and
wind, and linked to working time, heat stress index, ther-
mal stress index and predicted four-hour sweat rate
(Kjellstrom et al. 2009a; De Lima et al. 2021). This has
made it the most often used method of estimating human
heat stress globally. The use of WBGT has increased in
terms of heat stress due to climate and environmental
changes, with disastrous consequences for public health,
human and labour activities, and environmental sustain-
ability (Andrews et al. 2018b; Dasgupta et al. 2021;
Kjellstrom et al. 2018; Fahed et al. 2018).
The average annual temperature, as well as the fre-
quency, intensity, duration, and timing of heat waves and
thermal waves, have increased and will continue to
increase due to climate change ( Homsi et al. 2020; Khan
et al. 2019; Nissan et al. 2017; Peterson et al., 2013; Pezza
et al., 2012; You et al., 2017). The average temperature is
projected to increase by 1.40 to 5.80 °C between 1990 and
2100 (IPCC, 2021, 2018). The temperature changes have
also altered other meteorological variables influencing
human thermal conditions. It is very important to under-
stand how the health impact of climate change varies with
time and space and will be influenced by socioeconomic
and environmental circumstances, vulnerable groups and
people’s readiness to mitigate such impacts (Yengoh and
Ardö 2020). Characterizing hourly and daily WBGT and
assessing the changes in WBGT at different time scales can
provide valuable information, including heat exposure and
working time, and thus, taking mitigation measures (Budd
2008; Mohraz et al. 2016). The combination of these fac-
tors amplifies WBGT’s negative impact.
Heat extremes and heat-related human health risks have
increased rapidly in southeast Asia, like in many other
parts of the globe. Changes in temperature and other cli-
mate variables certainly changed the WBGT in the region.
Li (2020) studied trends of heatwave based on WBGT and
DBGT over South Asia during 1979–2018 using ERA-5
reanalysis data and showed that the trends in WBGT were
123
higher than the DBGT over the Malay Peninsula. The
analysis was based on the 95th percentile moving average
values of the 15-day moving average of Tmax and Tmin
for various categories of heatwaves. However, this study
does not consider the intraday variation of WBGT, which
can influence the productivity of workers and the optimum
time for outdoor activities. Im et al., (2018) studied the
change in WBGT over the future projection of CMIP5 RCP
scenarios. The ensemble of the three GCMs demonstrates a
consistent pattern in future with a large increase in tem-
perature accompanied by a decrease in relative humidity
but a significant increase in WBGT. The study summarises
that a minute increase in WBGT will put flat and coastal
regions such as Malaysia, characterized by a warm and
humid current climate, at risk. Monteiro and Caballero
(2019) used a combination of in-situ and ERA-Interim
reanalysis to evaluate wet-bulb temperature occurrences in
the spatially extended fields of the Indus region of southern
Pakistan. They suggested prior validation of ERA data
before its use in estimating WBGT. Im et al. (2017) fore-
casted WBGT in South Asia using the coupled Atmo-
sphere-Ocean Global Climate Model (AOGCM) for two
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5
and RCP 8.5. They showed that the densely populated
agricultural areas of the Ganges and Indus River basins are
more likely to experience future heat waves between 2070
and 2100. There is no study on the characterization and
analysis of WBGT in Malaysia.
This study assessed the changes in WBGT over Penin-
sular Malaysia (PM) at different time scales, including
hourly, daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual, for the period
1959–2021 using ERA5 reanalysis. WBGT is not a com-
mon metrological variable; neither climate models nor
datasets from atmospheric reanalysis provide it. Further-
more, quantitative analysis of a single variable, such as
temperature, is limited in its ability to describe the larger
picture of the impacts, whereas studies based on multi-
variate analysis, which integrates multiple climate vari-
ables, are scarce in the literature. Despite the large
significance of WBGT on public health, studies related to
characterization and trends in WBGT is very limited in
tropical humid region like PM. The single study on WBGT
conducted in the region was by Li (2020), where he used a
simplified method of WBGT computation based on air
temperature, dewpoint temperature and surface pressure
only. This study is the first attempt to characterize and
analyze the spatiotemporal changes in WBGT in PM using
a combination of several climatic variables, such as u and
v components of wind, 2 m temperature, surface net solar
radiation, surface net thermal radiation, surface pressure,
total sky direct solar radiation, and surface solar radiation
downwards using Liljegren method.
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347
2 Study area and datasets
2.1 Study area
Peninsular Malaysia (PM) covers an area of 130.598 km2.
It is located in the tropics between longitude 99.35° to
104.20° E and latitude 1.20° to 6.40° N and shares a land
border with Thailand to the north and Singapore from
Malaysia (Fig. 1). The annual rainfall is between 2000 and
4000 mm, and 150–200 wet days per year (Homsi et al.
2021). The mean temperature is from 21.00 to 32.00 °C
(Houmsi et al. 2019). The whole PM has a drier period in
the southwest monsoon, while the northeast monsoon
brings heavy rainfall to the country’s coastal area. The
Köppen-Geiger climate classification categorizes it as dry,
temperate, or tropical (Kottek et al. 2006). The region often
experiences temperature-related hazards, which are
expected to worsen in the future and have already had some
consequences on natural and man-made systems, particu-
larly public health (Bickici Arikan et al. 2021;
Nurhartonosuro et al. 2022; Shahid et al. 2017; Tam et al.
2021). These environmental changes may exacerbate the
regions’ WBGT loads.
Fig. 1 Topography of the study
area
2329
2.2 Dataset
Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS)
offers a variety of meteorological data. These datasets are
accessible for various periods on a global and regional
scale. The meteorological information obtained from
CEMS, namely the ERA5 hourly data on single levels from
1959 to the present, was used in this work to calculate wet
bulb globe temperatures (WBGT). The European Centre
for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provides
a fifth-generation reanalysis (ERA5) of the previous 4 to 7
decades of global climate and weather. ERA5 is produced
using the most recent iteration of the Integrated Forecasting
System and contemporary parameterization techniques,
with a horizontal resolution of 0.25° 9 0.25°, a temporal
resolution of 1 h, and a vertical resolution of 137 levels
from the surface up to a height of 80 km (Hersbach et al.
2020). ERA5 10 m u component of wind (u10), 10 m v
component of wind (v10), 2 m dew point temperature
(d2m), 2 m temperature (t2m), surface net solar radiation
(ssr), surface net thermal radiation (str), surface pressure
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2330 Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347
(sp), total sky direct solar radiation at surface (fdir) and
surface net solar radiation downwards (ssrd) were utilized
to calculate WBGT. The dataset is accessible through the
following link: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/
dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=overview.
The spatial distribution of different meteorological
variables used for estimating WBGT in PM is shown in
Fig. 2. The air temperature in PM varies between 21 and
27 °C, while the dew point temperature ranges from 20 to
24 °C. It indicates the temperature in the study area does
not vary significantly in space. Both the variables are less
in the central mountain regions and high in the coastal
regions. Surface net solar radiation ranges between 195 and
215 W/m2 in the east while between 175 and 195 W/m2 in
the remaining areas. Surface pressure is high (98 to
100 kPa) in the south and east ranges, while 92 kPa is in
the central region. The wind speed varies from 0.75 to
1.5 m/s in most areas, except 1.75 m/s in some coastal
locations.
2.3 WBGT Heat categories
Different organizations have categorized WBGT to define
occupational heat exposure limit, worker’s performance,
heat-related sentinel health events and clothing recom-
mendation (AIHA 2003; GBZ, 2007; ACGIH, 2014;
NIOSH, 2016, ACSM, 2017). The present study used the
WBGT heat categories defined by the 1980 United States
Department of the Army classification system to measure
heat stress (Budd et al. 1980). This categorization was
adopted as it is most widely used for defining different
levels of risk related to heat illness (Budd 2008; Roshan
et al. 2020; Guyer et al. 2021). The categories explain five
WBGT conditions, as shown in Table 1. The differences
between the categories depend on the value of WBGT,
from 25.6 to more than 32.2 °C. It considers the good
condition for WBGT from 25.6 to 27.8 °C, less than ideal
conditions from 27.8 to 29.4 °C, moderate risk for heat-
related illness from 29.4 to 31.1 °C, high risk for heat-
related illness from 31.1 to 32.2 °C, and extreme condi-
tions for WBGT more than 32.2 °C.
3 Methodology
The methodology adopted in this study is composed of the
following steps.
1. Evaluate the performance of ERA5 variables in some
major stations in PM.
123
2. The ERA5 hourly single-level data from 1959 to 2021
were retrieved from the Copernicus Climate Data
Store.
3. Computation of required parameters for estimating
outdoor WBGT.
4. Calculation of WBGT using the Liljegren method and
classification of WBGT.
5. Analysis of hourly variation and spatial distribution of
WBGT.
6. Analysis of the hourly, daytime, nighttime, daily and
monthly WBGT trends using the modified Mann-
Kendall test and Sen’s slope method.
3.1 ERA5 performance evaluation
Three meteorological stations (Senai, Kuntan and Alor
Setar) were used as a benchmark to assess the performance
of ERA5 variables, as shown in Fig. 1. The ERA5 vari-
ables evaluated in this study include mean temperature,
relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. Four
statistical metrics were used for this purpose, as defined in
Table 2.
3.2 Wet bulb global temperature
Lemke and Kjellstrom, (2012) conducted a thorough
analysis of published methodologies to evaluate the pro-
cedures used to calculate WBGT. For determining the
outside WBGT, they suggested the Liljegren method
(Liljegren et al. 2008). The natural wet bulb temperature
(Tw), the globe temperature (Tg), and the dry bulb (am-
bient) temperature (Ta) are used in the Liljegren method to
determine the outside WBGT.
WBGT ¼ 0:7Tw þ 0:2Tg þ 0:1Ta ð1Þ
Due to the complicated calculations, Liljegren created
an algorithm to estimate Tw and Tg, which is used in this
work. The ERA5 reanalysis variables are used for this
purpose. Table 3 lists all of the input variables needed to
calculate Tw and Tg.
The wind ERA5 daily minimum and average values for
u and v components were extracted, and the wind speed
components were determined using the formula below:
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
ws ¼ u2 þ v2 ð2Þ
ERA5 wind speed components are measured at the
height of 10 m above the Earth’s surface. However, wind
speed measured at 2 m above the surface is necessary for
the WBGT computation. A logarithmic wind speed profile
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347 2331

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of

(a) 2 m temperature, (b) 2 m
dewpoint temperature, (c) net
solar radiation, (d) net thermal
radiation, (e) surface pressure,
and (f) wind speed over
Peninsular Malaysia during
1959–2021

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2332 Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347

Table 1 Wet Bulb Globe Temperature categories
Category WBGT (°C)
1 25.6–27.8
2 27.8–29.4
3 29.4–31.1
4 31.1–32.2
5 [ 32.2
was utilized for measurements above a short-grassed area
Event Conditions
to correct wind speed data at 2 m (Allen et al. 1998).
 
4:87
Good conditions u2 ¼ uz ð3Þ
lnð67:8z  5:42Þ
Less than ideal conditions
Moderate risk for heat-related illness where u2 is the wind speed at 2 m, uz is the recorded wind
High risk for heat-related illness speed at a height of z, and z is the height of the wind
Extreme conditions measurement above ground level. The ‘‘fTnwb’’ and ‘‘fTg’’
functions of the ‘‘anacv/HeatStress’’ R package are used to
calculate Tw and Tg using the input parameters shown in
Table 3 (Casanueva et al. 2020).

Table 2 Statistical metrics used

Metric Optimum Value
for assessing the performance of
ERA5 data qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
P ffi
0
RMSE ¼ 1n ni¼1 ðxsim;i  xobs;i Þ2
RNi¼1 ðxsim;i xobs;i Þ 0
PBIAS ¼ 100  RNi¼1 ðxobs;i Þ
P n
 
1
1
xobs;i 
x xsim;i 
x
obs sim
R ¼ rffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
2
Pn  2 P 
n
2
xsim;i  xobs;i 
i¼1 x sim i¼1 x obs
rffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
 2  2ffi
rsim =lsim
1
KGE ¼ 1  ðr  1Þ2 þ 1  uusim 0bs
þ r0bs =l 0bs

Table 3 Input parameters used to calculate WBGT

Parameters Calculation Unit / Function

2 m Ambient ERA5 Reanalysis °C

Temperature (T)
2 m Dewpoint ERA5 Reanalysis °C
Temperature (Td)
8  9
Relative Humidity (RH) > > %
> Td
<exp 17:625 243:04þ >
ð TdÞ =
RH ð%Þ ¼ 100   
>
> exp 17:625 T >
>
: ;
ð243:04þTÞ
Surface Air Pressure ERA5 Reanalysis hPa
(sp)
Wind Speed at 2 m ERA5 Reanalysis from 10 m u and v components m/s
Minimum Wind Speed ERA5 Reanalysis m/s
Radiation (Rn) Rn = (ssr – str)/3600 W/m2
The proportion of Direct props = fdir/ssrd
Radiation
Zenith cozy = cos/ cosdsuncoshr ? sin dsunsin/, here, / = latitude, Radians / Zenith Function of
dsun = the declination of the sun, hr = hour angle R Geo light Package
SurfAlbedo Default: 0.4

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Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347 2333

3.3 Trend Analysis
WBGT trend was calculated using Sen’s slope (Sen 1968)
and the significance of the shift was determined using the
modified Mann-Kendall test (Kendall 1957; Mann 1945).
Since the non-parametric methodology requires serially
independent data and makes fewer assumptions than the
parametric approach, Mann-Kendall test has been widely
utilized to identify trends in hydrological time series
(Machiwal and Jha 2012). Sen’s slope test is advised by the
World Meteorological Organization as part of its recom-
mendations for identifying trends in hydrometeorological
data (Casanueva et al. 2020).
By using bias-corrected whitening, the impact of auto-
correlation on trend test results is eliminated. A whitening
method that simultaneously estimates the slope and lag-1
serial correlation coefficient was put forth by Hamed,
(2009). Before whitening, the lag-1 serial correlation
coefficient bias is adjusted. It uses ordinary least squares
(OLS) to calculate the trend’s slope and lag-1 serial cor-
relation coefficient. Next, bias correction is applied to the
lag-1 serial correlation coefficient. This study employed the
‘‘bcpw’’ function of the R programming-based ‘‘modified’’
package.
4 Results
4.1 ERA5 performance evaluation
Table 4 shows the performance of ERA5 at three locations
of PM based on four statistical metrics described in
Table 2. The locations of the stations are shown in Fig. 1.
The performance of ERA5 was estimated in terms of its
capability to replicate air temperature, relative humidity,
wind speed and solar radiation. The results showed the
good capability of ERA5 in replicating different
meteorological variables in PM. The RMSE for all vari-
ables in Kuantan and Alor Setar was less than one. It was
also very low at Senai, with a maximum of 1.251 for solar
radiation. The PBIAS was negligible for all variables at all
stations except wind speed. It was in the range of - 0.229
to 0.019 for wind speed, which is also low. The correlation
coefficient and KGE were also high for most cases. The
KGE was more than 0.6 in most cases, indicating a good
capability of ERA5 data in replicating the temporal vari-
ability of observed meteorological variables. The good
performance of ERA5 data at different locations distributed
over the PM indicates its suitability for climatic studies.
4.2 Spatial distribution of WBGT and its defining
variables
The spatial distribution of Tg, Tw and WBGT over PM
between 1959 and 2021 is shown in Fig. 3. The fig-
ure shows that Tg, Tw and WBGT vary from 30.5 to
32.5 °C, 21.5 to 27.5 °C and 21.5 to 30.5 °C, respectively.
High Tg was observed in the western coastal region, lower
in the central-north region and moderate in some southern
parts. These lower values of Tg are observed in the ele-
vated areas. A similar pattern in Tw is noticed (Fig. 3b),
where higher values are near the coastal regions and lower
values (21.5 °C) over the elevated mountains and less
populated areas. WBGT showed less variation over the
PM. The lower values of WBGT are observed in the central
north, as shown in Fig. 3c).
4.3 Mean intraday variation
The hourly average of the WBGT for each day was used to
analyze the intraday variation of WBGT over PM to reveal
extreme WBGT. The intraday WBGT variation is shown in

Table 4 Performance of ERA5

Station Metric Temperature Rel Humidity Wind speed Solar Radiation
data at three station data based
on different statistical metrics Senai RMSE 0.927 1.588 0.911 1.880
PBIAS 0.016 - 0.020 - 0.229 - 0.119
R2 0.890 0.970 0.910 0.440
KGE 0.790 0.920 0.660 0.640
Kuntan RMSE 0.535 0.848 0.476 1.643
PBIAS 0.013 - 0.005 0.019 - 0.175
R2 0.980 0.500 0.770 0.970
KGE 0.830 0.660 0.730 0.820
Alor Setar RMSE 0.806 0.366 0.880 0.520
PBIAS 0.019 0.013 - 0.177 - 0.043
R2 0.830 0.970 0.690 0.870
KGE 0.760 0.680 0.500 0.720

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2334 Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of

calculated a global temperature,
b Natural wet bulb temperature,
and c Wet bulb global
temperature over Peninsular
Malaysia

Fig. 4a. The hourly series shows that during the 12 PM, 1
PM and 2 PM of the day, the WBGT rises above 31.1 °C,
which falls under high risk for heat-related illness
(Table 2). Whereas 10th, 11 AM, 3 PM and 4 PM hours of
the day belong to the moderate risk for heat-related illness.
WBGT range from 27.8 to 29.4 °C during two hours of a
day (9 AM and 5 PM) which is still less than ideal con-
ditions. After the sunset till the next sunshine, the WBGT is
within the normal range, as shown in Fig. 4a.
The trend in WBGT during the peak hours (11 AM to 3
PM) was analyzed for the whole study period (1959 to
2021). The general trend shows that the WBGT is
increasing over the study area, with the highest increase in
recent years. Among the extreme hours of the day (12 PM,
1 PM and 2 PM), the maximum increase was up to 32.7 °C
in 2019. It is pertinent to observe in Fig. 4b that the WBGT
of 12 PM, 1 PM and 2 PM increased in recent years with
extreme conditions. In contrast, the patterns for two hours
(11 AM and 3 PM) were similar. It reached the condition of
high heat-related illness risk after 2014.
4.4 Spatial-temporal trends in hourly WBGT
The spatial distribution of WBGT for the extreme hours
(12 PM, 1 PM and 2 PM) from 1959 to 2021 over PM is
shown in Fig. 5. The spatial pattern of WBGT is presented
for two periods, 1959 to 1990 (left panel) and 1991 to 2021
(right panel), to show the changes in WBGT over time. The

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Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347 2335

Fig. 4 a Hourly variation of WBGT and b Hourly time series of WBGT for hours between 11 AM and 3 PM

figure shows that WBGT increased in recent years
(1991–2021) compared to the early period (1959–1990). In
recent years, the spatial distribution of maximum hours (12
PM, 1 PM and 2 PM) WBGT showed a rise above 32 °C,
especially on the west and south coast. It increased less in
the middle and east coast. The greatest change was
observed at 1 PM WBGT, when it increased by 0.45 °C. In
contrast, the increases were 0.43 °C and 0.40 °C at 12 PM
and 2 PM, respectively.
4.5 Daily WBGT and its spatial distribution
The average daily mean variation of WBGT over a year
between 1959 and 2021 is plotted in Fig. 6a. Also, the
seasons are shown in the figure by different lines. The four
seasons are the northeast monsoon (November to Febru-
ary), the first inter-monsoonal period (March to April), the
southwest monsoon (May to August), and the second inter-
monsoonal period (September to October). The variation of
daily mean WBGT over PM ranged from 26.20 to

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Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of

WBGT at 12 PM to 2 PM over
Peninsular Malaysia for two
periods 1959–1990 (left panel)
and 1991 to 2021 (right panel)

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Fig. 6 Daily a mean and
b maximum WBGT over
peninsular Malaysia
28.00 °C. The daily mean WBGT indicates an ideal con-
dition in all months except April. The daily mean WBGT
exceeds 28.0 °C in April. In contrast, the lowest WBGT
(26.20 °C) occurs during December and January. The mean
WBGT decreases by nearly 1.0 °C from May to July, while
it slightly increases during August and September. WBGT
again decreases to its lowest at the end of the year. The
daily maximum WBGT over a year is shown in Fig. 6b. It
is in the range of high heat-related illness risk throughout
the year. The results indicate that maximum WBGT
reaches high-risk conditions at least an hour once a day. It
reaches either high heat-related illness risk or extreme
conditions during the northeast and southwest monsoon. In
contrast, it always reaches extreme conditions during the
first and second inter-monsoon periods. The highest daily
maximum WBGT (33.75 °C) occurs in March. It declines
by 0.90 °C from April to July, while high increases from
August to September. The lowest daily maximum WBGT
(30.80 °C) occurs in December.
The spatial distribution of the decadal mean daily,
daytime and nighttime WBGT over the study period
2337
1959–2021 is shown in Fig. 7. It ranged from 25.00 to
32.50 °C over the study area and period. The results
showed that the mean daily WBGT remained constant till
2001 with very minute variations. However, it increased in
many locations after 2002, specifically in the Southern and
western coastal regions. The mean daily WBGT reached
31.1 °C at some grids in the last decade. A similar pattern
of increase in the daytime and nighttime WBGT was
observed. Both showed a rapid increase after 2002. How-
ever, the increase in daytime WBGT was more than
nighttime WBGT. The number of grids showing an
increase in daytime WBGT was more during 2002–2011
and 2012–2021 than in the early period. Daily mean
WBGT reached 31.10 °C in the south and west coastal
region after 2002, while it reached 27.80 °C in the
remaining part. Similarly, mean daytime WBGT showed a
slight increase from 1959 to 2011, while it reached
32.20 °C in recent decades. The spatial distribution of
nighttime WBGT also showed an increase over time. The
highest increase was in the south and coastal areas, where it
reached 25.60 to 27.80 °C in the last decade.
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2338 Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347

Fig. 7 Spatial distribution of

decadal mean a daily (left
column), b daytime (central
column), and c nighttime (right
column) WBGT over Peninsular
Malaysia

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Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347
4.6 WBGT trends
Figure 8 shows the spatial variability of the trends in mean
daily, daytime and nighttime WBGT over PM. The highest
increase occurred in mean nighttime WBGT by 0.24 °C/
decade, while the lowest (0.11 °C/decade) was in mean
daytime WBGT. The daily mean WBGT showed a mod-
erate increase of 0.18 °C/decade. The mean daily and
daytime WBGT increases were more in the east by around
0.2*0.25 °C/decade, while the increases were less in the
west. However, the increases in mean nighttime WBGT
Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of the
trends in mean a daily,
b daytime, and c nighttime
WBGT over Peninsular
Malaysia
2339
were higher in the west and north by more than 0.35 °C/
decade, while the lowest was in the south.
The spatial distribution of the annual number of days
with extreme and high risk for heat illness over PM in
terms of daily mean and maximum WBGT is shown in
Fig. 9. The results show that several places at the north and
western PM experience 20 days annually with extreme risk
conditions based on mean WBGT. The number of days
increased to 140–220 when the daily maximum WBGT is
considered to define the risk in a day. Similarly, the annual
number of days with a high risk of illness ranges from 10 to
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2340 Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347

Fig. 9 Annual number of days

with extreme and high risk for
heat illness based on daily mean
(a-b) and maximum (c-
d) WBGT

20 days and 100 to 140 days based on daily mean and
maximum WBGT. The highest annual number of high-risk
days was observed in the southern coastal region of PM.
The changes in the extreme and high risk days based on
daily mean and maximum WBGT are shown in Fig. 10.
The color ramp in the figure represents the changes in the
number of days per decade. The changes found significant
at p \ 0.05 is presented in the figure. An increase in the
number of days with extreme and high risk was noticed at
most of the grids. The maximum changes were observed in
the eastern coastal region with a maximum of 20 days/
decade. The decadal change in high risk conditions based
on mean WBGT showed a decline in the number of days.
The decrease was due to the increase in WBGT, which

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Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347
Fig. 10 The trends in the
number of days per decade with
extreme and high risk for heat
illness based on daily mean (a-
b) and maximum (c-d) WBGT
caused a shift in the number of high risk days to extreme
risk days.
The changes in the hourly and monthly WBGT are
shown in Fig. 11. The maximum increases in hourly
WBGT were observed during the nighttime, from 10 pm to
6 am, by around 0.25 °C/decade. The increases were the
lowest from 6 am to 9 am, only 0.2 °C. Overall, the trend
was less in the daytime than in the nighttime. The hours
2341
during which WBGT is maximum (12 to 14) showed a
lower increase, ranging around 0.1 °C/decade. WBGT
showed a slight increase for hours, 9 am to 9 pm. The
increases were suddenly more at 10 pm.
Figure 11b shows the trends in monthly mean and
maximum WBGT. It shows an increase in the range of 0.1
to 0.23 °C/decade for both mean and maximum WBGT.
The highest increase in monthly mean WBGT was
observed in January (0.22 °C/decade), while the lowest
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2342 Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347

Fig. 11 a Hourly and b monthly trends in WBGT over Peninsular Malaysia

was in April and August (0.15 °C/decade). The increase in
mean WBGT was higher than in maximum WBGT in all
months. The change in maximum WBGT in January was
very less (0.1 °C/decade) compared to the mean WBGT.
However, the highest increase in both mean and maximum
WBGT was noticed by 0.20 °C/decade in February. The
lowest increase in mean WBGT was in July (0.10 °C/
decade), and the maximum WBGT was in August
(0.16 °C/decade).

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Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347
5 Discussion
This study examined the spatial pattern in WBGT trends in
PM from 1959 to 2021. The study showed that PM’s
coastal regions experience the highest daily and monthly
mean and maximum WBGT, while central parts experience
the lowest. The finding of the study agrees with Kjellstrom
et al. (2013). The present study also revealed that the mean
and maximum WBGT had increased more over the coastal
and southern regions. The rate of increase was in the range
of 0.1–0.25 °C/decade. The increase in WBGT would
cause an expansion of the area, with daily WBGT
exceeding a high-risk level for 5 h (11 am to 3 pm). The
studies showed a higher increase in WBGT and heat events
due to the overall increase in absolute humidity in tropical
regions, such as PM (Willett and Sherwood 2012).
This study also presented the spatial distribution of
climate variables for estimating WBGT, including globe
and natural wet bulb temperature. The spatial distribution
of the WBGT and its drivers revealed their higher values in
the coastal regions and lower values in the elevated north-
central region. The highest mean WBGT was in the central
western coastal region, where the capital of Malaysia is
located. The high WBGT in the densely urban areas of PM
indicates the effect of urbanization on WBGT. Previous
studies showed the capacity to adapt and control excessive
heat hazards is limited in the tropics (Stocker et al. 2013).
The spatial distribution of different meteorological
variables used for estimating Tg, Tw and WBGT revealed
their higher values in the coastal region and lower values in
the elevated regions, extending from the central PM to the
north. Despite the lower dew point temperature, the WBGT
was high in the central area due to low wind speed and high
solar radiation. In contrast, the wind speed in the central-
north region was moderately high, but the WBGT was low
due to the low temperature. Pour et al. (2020) showed a
large increase in daily average temperature over PM by
0.24 to 0.65, while a decrease in relative humidity in most
parts of the PM by 0.7 to 1.9%/decade. They also showed a
slight increase in solar radiation at three out of ten loca-
tions and both an increase and decrease in wind speed in
different parts. This indicates that the increase in WBGT
may be due to a large increase in temperature, followed by
an increase in solar radiation.
This study also investigated the hourly and monthly
trends in WBGT. The mean and maximum WBGT in the
first and second inter-monsoonal periods were identified as
2343
the period when WBGT is increasing fast. March was
identified as the period with the highest daily maximum of
WBGT (33.75 °C) over PM. The increase in the daily
mean WBGT at most locations of PM was observed
between 0.10 and 0.25 °C/decade. The increases in WBGT
were more at night than during daytime. The increases in
nighttime WBGT were alarming due to the high rate of
increase. The increase in WBGT during night was also
reported by (Caesar et al. 2011). The similar findings of our
study confirm previous findings from throughout the world
that warm extremes, particularly at night, are growing
while cold extremes are declining.
6 Conclusion
The present study used the Liljegren method to assess the
characteristics and variability of WBGT in PM with ERA-
reanalysis data. The USDA-defined WBGT categories
were employed to analyze the intraday, daily daytime and
nighttime, monthly, and yearly WBGT. The spatial distri-
bution of WBGT shows that the coastal region of the PM
has experienced larger changes in WBGT over the last few
decades compared to other parts. The intraday and mean
WBGT time series revealed a continuous increase in day-
time extreme heat stress conditions. The study also
revealed the reaching of extreme heat stress conditions in
the mid-day at least one location of the PM on almost all
days in recent years, indicating an alarming weather con-
dition for human health. The study’s major contribution is
the characterization of WBGT and heat stress conditions,
including intraday WBGT variation over Malaysia. The
information generated in this study can be used for plan-
ning better working conditions for labours and outdoor
activities in tropical PM where the absolute humidity rise
caused deterioration of human comfort and outdoor
working conditions. The spatial pattern of the trends in
WBGT can be used to adapt region-specific adaptation
planning, such as increasing shading areas, green corridors,
etc. In the future, a study can be conducted to identify the
most influencing meteorological variables to derive a
simple equation for estimating WBGT from a smaller
number of meteorological variables. High-resolution data
can also be used to better assess the effect of land use,
particularly the urbanization of WBGT in PM. It is also
important to study the atmospheric circulation pattern
responsible for high WBGT to provide an early warning.
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2344 Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347
Acknowledgements We are grateful to the Copernicus Emergency
Management Service (CEMS) and the European Centre for Medium-
Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for providing a fifth-generation
reanalysis (ERA5) through their web portal.
Author contribution Funding acquisition, methodology, project
administration, writing original draft, SS and ZI; Data acquisition,
investigation, writing review and editing, MRH; Methodology, visu-
alization, MMH, ZI, IKO; Writing review and editing, MRH, SS, DS;
Writing review and editing, DSMI, ZI. All authors have read and
agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding The research is supported by Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
(UTM) through Postdoctoral Research Fellowship Scheme (Grant No.
06E01).
Data availability All the data are available in the public domain at
the links provided in the texts.
Code availability The codes used for the processing of data can be
provided on request to the corresponding author.
Declarations
Conflict of interest The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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Authors
Stochastic and Affiliations
Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2023) 37:2327–2347 2347

Mohamad Rajab Houmsi1,2 • Zulhilmi Ismail1,2 • llya Khairanis Othman1,2 • Daeng Siti Maimunah Ishak1,2 •

Mohammed Magdy Hamed3 • Zafar Iqbal5 • Deprizon Syamsunur4 • Shamsuddin Shahid1,2

& Mohamad Rajab Houmsi

eng.rajabhomsi@gmail.com 1
Department of Water & Environmental Engineering, Faculty
Zulhilmi Ismail of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia,
zulhilmi@utm.my 81310 Skudai, Johor, Malaysia
llya Khairanis Othman 2
Centre for River and Coastal Engineering (CRCE), Universiti
ilya@utm.my Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Daeng Siti Maimunah Ishak 3
Department of Construction and Building Engineering,
maimunah.kl@utm.my College of Engineering and Technology, Arab Academy for
Mohammed Magdy Hamed Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), B
eng.mohammedhamed@aast.edu 2401 Smart Village, 12577 Giza, Egypt
4
Zafar Iqbal Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering,
zafar.thalvi@gmail.com Technology and Built Environment, UCSI University,
56000 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Deprizon Syamsunur 5
deprizon@ucsiunversity.edu.my NUST institute of Civil Engineering-SCEE, National
University of Sciences and Technlogy (NUST), H-12,
Shamsuddin Shahid 44000 Islamabad, Pakistan
sshahid@utm.my

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