Data Analysis

The document is a research publication titled "A robust approach and analytical tool for identifying early
warning signals of forest mortality" by Sara Alibakhshi from the Department of Geosciences and
Geography, University of Helsinki. This research focuses on developing a method for detecting early
warning signals of forest mortality using remotely sensed spatio-temporal data and introduces a new R
software package for facilitating this analysis.

Key Takeaways:

1. Objective and Significance: The study aims to identify early warning signals of forest mortality
using remotely sensed data, addressing a gap in existing methodologies that are often limited by
data availability and analytical techniques.

2. Methodology: The research employs local spatial autocorrelation methods, particularly local
Geary’s c and local Moran’s I, to develop a robust approach for generating early warning signals.
This method is based on time-series analysis of local spatial autocorrelation metrics, allowing for
up to two years of advance notice of impending forest mortality events.

3. Key Results:

 The method successfully generated early warning signals and demonstrated superior
performance compared to previous techniques.

 The study introduced a new R software package, “stew”, designed for user-friendly
spatio-temporal analysis of ecosystem state changes.

 Significant trend analysis validated the approach's reliability in generating early warning
signals.

4. Study Sites: The research involved three case studies - two unhealthy forests with known
histories of reduced resilience and extensive tree mortality (Sequoia and Yosemite) and a
reference study site (Wood Buffalo).

5. Datasets Used: The study utilized various datasets, including the Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index (NDVI), tree cover, land cover, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI).

6. Findings and Implications:

 The approach proved effective in the early detection of forest mortality signals, which
could significantly aid in ecological conservation and management.

 It demonstrated the potential of spatio-temporal indicators for predicting climate-

induced forest mortality.

7. Limitations:

 The study was limited to evergreen needleleaf forests in three specific sites.

 There are challenges related to the spatial resolution of satellite images and the
specificity of indicators in different forest types and conditions.
 8. Future Directions: The research suggests the need for further studies across varied locations
and forest types. It also highlights the potential integration of machine learning and additional
spectral bands for enhanced analysis.

Highlights and Images:

1. Conceptual Diagram of Approaches (Fig. 1): Illustrates the different approaches used in the
study to measure early warning signals, including temporal analysis of the whole ecosystem,
spatial patterns of early warning signals, and the new approach measuring local spatial
autocorrelation at each time.

2. Ecosystem Changes and NDVI Analysis (Figs. 2 and 4): Shows the time series of NDVI, PDSI, and
tree cover in the study sites, highlighting significant changes and trends in these indicators.

3. Early Warning Indicators (Fig. 6): Presents early warning indicators in the study sites, showing
trends based on local Geary’s c, local Moran’s I, and temporal analysis of early warning signals at
each pixel location.

4. Histograms of Trends (Fig. 7): Displays histograms of Kendall’s τ values based on local Geary’s c,
Moran’s I, and lag-1 autocorrelation across different pixels in the study sites, providing a
statistical view of the early warning signals.

The research presents a significant advancement in the early detection of forest mortality, offering a
novel and robust methodological framework that could be instrumental in ecological monitoring and
conservation efforts.