A New Conceptual Model For CO2 Reduction in Hot and Dry Urban Areas A Case Study of Mashhad in Iran

Int. J. Global Warming, Vol. 21, No.
4, 2020 325
A new conceptual model for CO2 reduction in hot and

dry urban areas: a case study of Mashhad in Iran
Ali Mostafaeipour* and Mojtaba Shakeriravesh

Industrial Engineering Department,
Yazd University,
Yazd, Iran
Email: mostafaei@yazd.ac.ir
Email: shakeri.mojtaba@gmail.com
*Corresponding author
Mohsen Naderpour
Faculty of Engineering and IT,
University of Technology Sydney,
Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia
Email: mohsen.Naderpour@uts.edu.au
Mohammad Saleh Owlia

Industrial Engineering Department,
Yazd University,
Yazd, Iran
Email: owliams@yazd.ac.ir
Abstract: This research aims to introduce a conceptual model for reduction of

carbon dioxide (CO2) in an urban for developing intervention strategies. For
this purpose, the system dynamics methodology is used for modelling the
causal feedback loops. City of Mashhad in Iran is nominated for this research.
The model facilitates policymaking and scenario planning for urban
development simultaneously with CO2 emission reduction. The study shows
how different urban subsystems can interactionally increase or decrease CO2
emissions and also the importance of paying attention to the interactions when
policy making for CO2 reduction, even more than considering each subsystem
separately. It presents a novel system dynamics (SD) model for demonstrating
long-term interactions of urban subsystems regarding CO2 emissions which has
not been studied in Iran. It also encompasses some new variables which have
not been studied in previous similar studies.
Keywords: CO2 emission; conceptual model; system dynamics; urban areas;

global warming.
Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Mostafaeipour, A.,

Shakeriravesh, M., Naderpour, M. and Owlia, M.S. (2020) ‘A new conceptual
model for CO2 reduction in hot and dry urban areas: a case study of Mashhad in
Iran’, Int. J. Global Warming, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp.325–355.
Copyright © 2020 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

326 A. Mostafaeipour et al.
Biographical notes: Ali Mostafaeipour is an Associate Professor of Industrial

Engineering at Yazd University, Iran. He was selected as the top 1% scientist in
the world for the year 2018 and 2019 by Thompson Reuther (ISI-ESI) and
Clarivate Analytics. He has served as the committee member, guest speaker,
and co-chairman of 206 international conferences. He has presented 84 mostly
international conference papers throughout the world. He has undertaken and
managed 18 research projects, and holds three patents. He has been editorial
board of several professional journals. Finally, he has published 109 journal
articles mostly at Elsevier, and he authored five books.
Mojtaba Shakeriravesh is a PhD candidate at industrial Engineering in Yazd

University. He has more than 15 years’ experience in urban issues in City of
Mashhad which is the second biggest city in Iran as a Urban Planner, R&D
Director, Urban Environment Director and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of
urban regeneration organisation. He published five books and 18 papers based
on his researches and experiences in interdisciplinary urban subjects.
Mohsen Naderpour received his PhD from the University of Technology

Sydney (UTS) and currently is a Lecturer at the School of Information,
Systems and Modelling at UTS. He is also a core member of the Centre for
Artificial Intelligence and the Center for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial
Information Systems. He began his professional life as a safety professional in
high risk industries including transportation and oil before taking up a position
in academia as a Research Fellow with the Global Big Data Technologies
Centre at UTS. His research areas include decision support systems, risk
analysis, uncertain information processing, and data analytics.
Mohammad Saleh Owlia is a Professor of Industrial Engineering at Yazd

University, Iran. He received his PhD in quality management from the
University of Birmingham, UK in 1996. He obtained his BSc and MSc both
from Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. He has been interested in
doing teaching and research on areas related to quality management and
engineering, systems design and analysis, and knowledge and technology
management. He has received Yazd University distinguished researcher award
and Yazd University outstanding lecturer award.
1 Introduction
From 1880 to 2018, the earth’s average temperature increased by about 1°C (NSA,
2019b). Many researchers believe that a 1.5°C increase in the global temperature will put
millions of people at risk of flooding and place many animal species at risk of extinction.
If average temperatures rise by 2°C, we will probably lose coral reefs forever. Another
0.5°C of temperature increase will have a great impact on our ability to plant products
such as wheat, corn, and rice (Masson-Delmotte, 2018). There is a wide consensus
among researchers that the cause of climate change and global warming is the excessive
accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. CO2 plays a particularly important
role in this regard as it constitutes about 76.7% of all greenhouse gases in the earth’s
atmosphere (NASA, 2019a; IPCC, 2014). According to the latest statistics (Figure 1), the
global CO2 emission from fossil fuels has risen from 22,000 megatons in 1990 to around
A new conceptual model for CO2 reduction in hot and dry urban areas 327
37,000 megatons in 2018 and is expected to increase by an annual rate of 1.8%–3.7% for
an unforeseeable future (Le Quéré et al., 2018). The primary cause of CO2 emission is the
burning of fossil fuels, including oil and oil derivatives as well as gas and coal (IEA,
2018a).
Figure 1 Global CO2 emissions from1990 to 2018 (Giga tones) (see online version for colours)
Source: Le Quéré et al. (2018)

According to the 2018 report of the International Energy Agency, the main consumers of
fossil fuels and producers of CO2 emission are the electricity and heat generation (41.5%
of the world’s total CO2 production), transportation sector, industrial sector, residential,
commercial, and public buildings and other sectors. It should be noted that 36.5% of the
produced electricity and heat is consumed in the industrial sector, 26.6% in residential,
commercial and public buildings, 25% in transportation, and 12% in other sectors, which
means they actually have a larger contribution to CO2 emissions (IEA, 2018b).
Because of the settlement of the majority of the world’s population in cities and the
concentration of many major fossil fuel consuming sectors in and around urban areas,
urban can be considered the heart of CO2 emission (Hu et al., 2017; Kole and Ellison,
2018). To slow down the rapid increase in global demand for fossil fuels, the world needs
not only effective government policies but also a change in the people’s lifestyle and
attitude toward food and energy consumption (Kole and Ellison, 2018; Wang et al.,
2018a). Otherwise, with the current rate of increase in CO2 emissions, the world’s
average temperature increase will exceed 1.5°C in the early 2030s; a date that was
previously predicted to be in the second half of the 21st century. The most ambitious
global objectives defined to keep the global temperature increase below 1.5°C include
making 45% reduction in CO2 production from 2010 to 2030 and reaching zero carbon
emissions by 2050 (Masson-Delmotte, 2018).
This research concerns the increasing and uncontrolled emission of CO2 due to the
consumption of fossil fuels in urban areas. Since each urban can be viewed as a system
with specific boundaries and comprising of a set of components and elements that pursue
different goals or serve different purposes in constant interaction with each other; the
study aims to identify the urban variables and their interactions which affect CO2
emissions, and also scenario making for urban CO2 reduction in the City of Mashhad.
In this study, we want to analyse city as a dynamic complex system which includes
various subsystems that interact with each other and since the study is macro level, long
term and strategic, which needs the analysis of variables’ interactions regarding CO2
emission. On the other hand, system dynamics (SD) is a simulation tool to understand,
analysis and discuss the dynamic behaviour of complex systems which is often used in
strategic policy analysis. Hence, SD is used as the simulation tool in this study. This goal
is pursued using SD methodology which is very effective in modelling and simulating
complex systems. This methodology has two major benefits: first, it reveals the internal
cause-and-effect relationships of different elements of the analysed system, which allows
us to find out why that system behaves in a particular way. Second, it provides the
opportunity to determine which parameters or structures have to change for the system to
behave better (Taher Azar, 2012). After understanding the links and causal effects of
different factors of an urban system that contribute to increasing or decreasing CO2
emissions, one can define the possible scenarios for improving the system’s behaviour in
this respect.
The novelty of this research is incorporating the long-term interactions between
variables of an urban’s different sub-systems into the analysis. Moreover, this is the first
research of its kind in Iran and although a few similar studies have been conducted in
other countries, they have been limited in scope and not covered many of the variables
discussed in this study.
The rest of the paper is organised as follows: Section 2 reviews the literature.
Section 3 describes the research methodology. Section 4 introduces the case study.
Section 5 presents the key variables and develops the conceptual model. Section 6
elaborates the findings and discusses the applications and implications. Section 7
concludes the paper and suggests some future research directions.
2 Literature review
This section provides the primary concepts and main tools associated with and used in the
study regarding CO2 emission. It also presents an overview of previous researches on
CO2 reductions using SD and the novelty of the study in comparison with the previous
ones.
2.1 Urban planning

Urban planning, in its modern form, was introduced as a way to predict future land uses
and urban development patterns and ensure effective and consistent provision of
infrastructure facilities and services (Batty and Marshall, 2017). In its modern definition,
urban strategic planning involves decision making through the use of comprehensive
studies on all environmental and internal factors including land use, spatial morphology,
and socio-economic interactions in order to manage these factors together (Zubelzu and
Fernández, 2016).
2.2 Decision making and modelling

Given the limitations of the human mind and the information, resource, time and
financial constraints of the modern management, today’s managers and decision makers
are incentivised to analyse and solve problems through modelling and simplification and
more depend on relative rationality (Rezaian, 2013). Models are simplified patterns
derived from reality which can illustrate the relationships between variables and be used
to predict the results of decisions. Models help us weigh the decisions without the risks of
real-world decision making. Models are a perception of the reality, but they do not
represent the whole reality, and therefore cannot represent the real-world systems
precisely. Thus, no model can be considered perfect. Decision support models include
visual models, statistical models, multi-criteria decision-making models, mathematical
models, and meta-heuristic models, which are used for optimisation, simulation, and
economic modelling (Alvani, 2011). Simulation models are among the best choices for
emulating the behaviour of a system or process over time. These models are used when
trial and error, visual models, and statistical methods are inapplicable, when the existence
of a host of non-deterministic and probabilistic variables makes it impossible to create a
mathematical (or non-mathematical) model of the system, and when only the system’s
behavioir in the past is known. In these cases, statistical data regarding the past behavioir
of the system can be used to develop a conceptual model and configure it such that it
behaves in the same way that the system has behaved in the past periods (Sterman, 2016).
The simulation methods most commonly used by modellers include SD, discrete
event simulation (DES) and agent-based simulation (ABS). The choice of the method
depends on the problem specifications, decision-making level associated with the
problem, system components, information access level, and time dependency of the
modelled phenomenon. Compared to SD, DES and ABS are more typically used at
operational and tactical levels of decision making which involve dealing more with
details, and thus are less suitable for strategic modelling. SD can, therefore, be considered
one of the most suitable simulation methods for strategic decision making and policy
optimisation. SD is a powerful tool with a sharp focus on the features of a system’s
behaviour and the ability to circumvent the limitations of other approaches by the use of
flowcharts and mathematical deduction. One great advantage of SD is its power to
improve human thinking to a level where the expected results are achievable. Also, this
method can be used to combine quantitative and qualitative techniques, clarify the
relationships between system elements, provide reliable operational information, and
illustrate the complexity, nonlinearity and looped feedback structures in social and
physical systems (Popli et al., 2017). The SD methodology is presented in the next sub-
section.
2.3 System dynamics

SD was introduced in 1961 by Forrester, who defined it as a computer-aided approach for
policy design and analysis. This approach can be used to solve dynamic problems in
complex social, management, economic, and ecological (environmental) systems and
generally analyse the changes over time of systems with complex feedbacks. The
extensive use of SD reflects its high potential for the development of strategic models for
policy analysis (Sterman, 2016). SD models depict the factors that influence the
behaviour of a system in a causal loop diagram (CLD), which clearly illustrates the links
and feedback loops between the elements of that system and the links between the system
itself and its operating environment (Popli et al., 2017).
This methodology reveals how an element affects others through physical and
information flows, how these flows return back to the original element in the form of
feedback loops, and how the system behaviour is controlled and directed by these loops.
SD can be used to simulate real-world systems under a series of assumptions so as to
improve our understanding of complex systems, their dynamic complexities, and sources
of resistance against policies in order to design more effective policies (Popli et al.,
2017).
2.3.1 Causal loop diagram

The feedback structure of a complex system can be illustrated by qualitative mapping
with a CLD. Figure 2 illustrates a CLD is composed of a number of nodes that are
connected by arrows representing the causal effects between them. Each cause-and-effect
relationship is represented by a directed arrow with a positive or negative weight, which
indicates how a change in the first variable affects the second.
Figure 2 Basic CLD
+ +
A + B - C
+ -
Each loop is also marked with a symbol, which indicates whether the feedback loop is of
positive type (reinforcing) or negative (balancing). A positive causal relationship
means that the two variables change in the same direction. In contrast, in a negative
cause-and-effect relationship, the variables change in the opposite direction. In a CLD,
the polarity of relationships does not explain the behaviour of variables but rather how
the system is structured. In other words, it explains what happens if a change occurs not
what is currently happening (Sterman, 2016).
2.3.2 Dynamic hypothesis

After defining the problem over a suitable time horizon, one has to formulate a
hypothesis called the dynamic hypothesis that would explain the causes of the problem.
This hypothesis can be modified or rejected according to what is being learned from the
modelling process or the real world. Since different members of the problem analysis
team are likely to have different hypotheses about the source of the problem, the modeller
should be receptive to all hypotheses and play the role of facilitator without rejecting or
approving any particular suggestion (Sterman, 2016).
2.4 CO2 production and reduction SD models

To explore research literature, major scientific databases including Elsevier, Taylor &
Francis, Wiley, Springer, Sage, Emerald and Google Scholar were searched for articles
published in 1990–2018, with the terms ‘CO2’, ‘greenhouse gas’, ‘SD’ and ‘city and
urban sectors including transportation, waste, urban form and information technology’.
The results of this search are summarised in Table 1.
Table 1 Content analysis of research background in the field of CO2 emission in urban areas
and through SD
References Subject terms SD software Comment

Fong et al. Urban, CO2 STELLA Did not consider and the links
(2009) emissions between residential, commercial,
industrial and transportation sectors
Armah et al. Traffic Vensim Did not consider urban form and
(2010) congestion, air connections between sectors
pollution
Liu et al. (2012) low-carbon, city STELLA Ignoring transportation and urban
form variables and the links between
them
Andriono et al. Green open space, Powersim The number of vehicles as the only
(2013) CO2 emissions producer of CO2 and green space as
CO2 absorption. Not considering the
other key variables of the
transportation sector and the urban
form
Feng et al. Urban energy STELLA Considering CO2 emissions by types
(2013) consumption, CO2 of fuels in the sectors in general
emissions form, regardless of the variables of
the main cause of emissions per
sector
Fuady et al. (14) Urban forest, Powersim Focusing on urban green spaces as
CO2, City CO2 reducers and considering only
the number of cars as CO2 enhancers
Kikuchi et al. CO2 emission, STELLA Considering the emission of transport
(2014) urban structure sector through (vehicle kilometres
travelled) VKT, without considering
the other effective variables of
transport and urbanisation
Manohar et al. Transportation, air Vensim focus on transportation variables,
(2014) pollution regardless of long-term urbanisation
variables
Vafa-Arani et Urban, air Vensim Focused on pollution caused by
al. (2014) pollution vehicles and industries
Cheng et al. Urban, Vensim Focused on transport variables and
(2015) transportation, not paying attention to other parts of
CO2 emission CO2 emissions
Rusiawan et al. Urban, CO2 Powersim The details variables didn’t consider
(2015) emission and there are no urban variables in
the model
Table 1 Content analysis of research background in the field of CO2 emission in urban areas
and through SD (continued)
References Subject terms SD software Comment

Liu et al. Urban, passenger Vensim Urban variables had not been seen
(2015a) transport, CO2
emissions
Liu et al. energy STELLA Fossil fuels including gas, coal,
(2015b) consumption, CO2 gasoline and other types of energy
emissions sources had presented in the model.
The model didn’t address how they
had consumed and how other
variables would impact.
Ercan et al. carbon footprint, Vensim Focus on transport sector variables
(2016) public and lack of attention to other parts of
transportation the CO2 producers
Wen et al. Industrial, carbon Vensim Just focus on the CO2 emissions from
(2016) emissions, city the industrial sector and the
population
Mirzaei and CO2 emissions Vensim Study of CO2 emissions in Iran and
Bekri (2017) the use of energy consumption
statistics and intensity at the macro
level of the country.
Present study CO2 emissions, Vensim Considering the key and main
transportation, variables of direct and indirect
Urban built area, consumption of fossil fuels in urban
urban form boundaries. considering the
relationship between variables
including transportation and
urbanisation and urban form in the
model with the goal of reducing CO2
emissions
The review of research literature suggested that despite the long history of research on the
use of SD modelling in urban systems, very few of these studies have been conducted
with the objective of reducing CO2 emission. Also, these studies have not addressed some
of the major variables involved in CO2 emissions in urban and have ignored the mutual
effects of different urban sectors, such as transportation and urban form in the SD
modelling.
Other studies that have investigated CO2 emissions in urban, have used modelling
techniques other than SD, including mathematical modelling such as Wang et al. (2018b),
statistical analysis including correlation and regression such as Fang et al. (2015), or
other simulation methods such as Leibowicz (2017) and Martinez-Jaramilo et al. (2017).
Because of the methodology of these studies and their limitations in regard to the analysis
of urban variables, they have only investigated the relation of one or few urban variables
such as urban form or urban transportation, separately, with greenhouse gas and CO2
emissions. In the studies with statistical methods, only the relationship of some specific
variables, such as urban density and distance travelled, with CO2 emission has been
measured. Also, these studies have not been able to clearly illustrate the relationships
between different urban variables involved in CO2 emission.
3 Research methodology
SD analysis is an approach for understanding the nonlinear behaviour of complex

systems using concepts such as flow and state variables, feedback loops, and time delays.
This knowledge gives us the mathematical technique and technique for framing,
understanding, and discussing complex topics and problems. Systems dynamics is an
aspect of systems theory whose aim is to help as a way of understanding the dynamic
behaviour of complex systems.
The basis of this approach is that the structure of any system (which includes circular
cause-and-effect circuits, is highly complex and sometimes has time delays) is important.
The major difference between SD and system thinking is its quantitative approach to
issues that go beyond qualitative understanding of the structure of systems and seeks to
formulate relationships between components. The most important difference between
system thinking and SD, as evidenced by the dynamic prefix, is the particular attention
given to SD over time. Dynamic adjectives refer to changes over time. Actually, dynamic
stands against static. For this reason, whenever they say that we need to examine the
dynamics of this system, it means that its behaviour and characteristics should be
monitored over time and their changes monitored. System thinking is concerned with the
structure of systems and the relationship between system components and takes into
account the general form of system behaviour.
An important part of world scientists see the greenhouse effect and climate change as
a threat to human life on Earth. Many governments have also tried to limit and monitor
industrial activity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But the question is how long it
takes to implement the policy. And how slow will the climate change process be if such
monitoring is implemented?
Are the outcomes of these programs and their duration of impact valuable compared
to the economic costs associated with industry constraints?
The research methodology is developed on the basis of the SD approach of Sterman
(2016) and consists of the following steps:
Step 1 Defining the problem and objective, setting the boundaries, and identifying the
key variables and time horizon. In this step, a series of exploratory library and
comparative studies were performed to define the problem, model boundaries,
and research variables. In the course of this procedure, 15 of the most senior and
experienced employees of the municipality of Mashhad, who had a good
understanding of the urban’s system and problem, were selected as candidates
for serving as experts. In a meeting with these candidates, they were briefed
about the subject of work and asked whether they can cooperate. Of this group,
nine people volunteered to participate in the research, with expertise in the areas
of transportation, urban design, and waste management.
Step 2 Formulating dynamic hypotheses about the causes of the problem according to
expert opinions, relevant official documents, and research literature. To conduct
this step, six meetings were held with these experts to collect their opinion about
the variables identified from the research literature and whether they are suitable
for the case under study. For step-by-step identification of causes and effects and
creation of hypotheses and diagrams, a total of 14 one-on-one meetings were
held with experts (experts were consulted as many times as needed). In meetings
with each expert and by social network connections, urban issues were discussed
from different perspectives and a casual loop diagram was developed according
to the inputs of that expert.
Step 3 Depicting the structure of the system based on the formulated hypotheses and
the obtained data and plotting the CLD. In this step, the cause-and-effect
relationships, hypotheses, and subjective models of different experts were
merged into a single integrated CLD. The CLD was analysed and revised in the
course of six meetings held with a panel of all participating experts. In these
meetings, the causal relationships were discussed one at a time and the model
was modified step-by-step according to experts’ comments. The end result of
this process was the final causal loop model of the research.
Step 4 Evaluate the model to measure its suitability for the objective. The model
validity was assessed by:
1 asking the experts to comment on the suitability and sufficiency of the model
structure, elements, and variables according to the existing knowledge
2 asking experts to compare the developed model with a group of models
extracted from the research literature
3 asking experts whether they believe that all important concepts, variables,
and feedbacks that are relevant to the problem are well represented in the
model.
The model was implemented with the help of Vensim DSS Version 6.4E which
is the most commonly used and regularly updated package for SD modelling
(Popli et al., 2017).
Step 5 Planning the scenarios and developing the intervention strategies. In this step,
according to the final model diagram and its expected behaviour, all possible
scenarios that have the final negative impact on the amount of CO2 emission
have been identified with expert’s opinions. These solutions are within the scope
of duties and authorities of the municipality of Mashhad in short-term and long-
term. urban managers and decision-makers can choose among the best ones
according to their conditions and capabilities.
The above steps are performed in a loop because modelling is a feedback-based
procedure and models should go through an iterative process of inquiry, testing,
modification, and improvement of the results. This means that each step can potentially
produce a data item that would necessitate modification and revision in the previous
steps.
4 Case study
The city of Mashhad is located in Khorasan Razavi province, in the north-eastern part of
Iran, at 36.18°N and 59.36°E. The city is the second largest in Iran after the capital
(Tehran) and is among the world’s top 100 most populous metropolitan areas. This city
attracts more than 20 million pilgrims and domestic and foreign tourists per year and
accounts for more than 50% of gross domestic product (GDP) of Khorasan Razavi
province. Figure 3 shows the geographic location of Khorasan Razavi province and the
city of Mashhad. According to the reports, in recent years, Khorasan Razavi province and
Mashhad have experienced increased temperature and drought, reduced rainfall, and
extreme events such as torrential rain, which have been significant compared to the
previous long-term period. It is also predicted that these problems will intensify in future
years (National Drought Warning and Monitoring Center of Iran, 2017; National Office
of Climate Change of Iran, 2015). According to experts, the cause of these phenomena
can be the increase in CO2 emission both domestically and worldwide (Ebadinia et al.,
2016).
Figure 3 The geographic location of Khorasan Razavi province and the city of Mashhad
(see online version for colours)
According to the latest report provided in Iran’s 2018 energy balance sheet regarding per
capita CO2 emissions in Iran, recent census reports, and also the economic report of
Khorasan Razavi province regarding per capita GDP, in 2018, Mashhad had an emission
of more than 22.6 million tons of CO2 and a GDP of approximately 350,000 billion Rials.
Figure 4 shows the trend of population growth in Mashhad (right axis, bar diagram) and
the CO2 emission condition (left axis, line diagram) of this city between 2007 and 2016.
This figure shows how CO2 emissions in Mashhad has increased simultaneously with the
urbanisation and population growth over these years (Energy Balance Sheet of Iran
Report, 2018; Administration of Economic Affairs and Finance of Khorasan Razavi
Province, 2018; Statistics of Mashhad City, 2016.
According to the IEA (2018a), compared to other countries, Iran has a very high
emission rate for its GDP and population. In 2016, Iran’s total CO2 emission per capita
was 7.02 tons, which is significantly higher than, for example, Turkey’s emission per
capita in the same year (4.33 tons), especially considering that, according to the World
Bank, Iran’s total GDP per capita in 2016 was half of Turkey’s (International Monetary
Fund, 2018). The fact that the emission situation is getting progressively worse in Iranian
metropolises highlights the dire need for preventive and corrective measures in this
regard. In 2015 report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) meeting in
Paris, Iran agreed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 4% relative to the base
scenario in Iran’s second report to IPCC in 2010 and committed to this agreement at the
Climate Change Conference in Poland (COP24, 2018). Assuming that the city of
Mashhad should also achieve the same emission reduction (8%), it seems that CO2
emission trends of this city are not on track to meet this target, and further studies on the
city’s fossil fuel consumption are necessary.
Figure 4 Trends of population growth and CO2 emission in Mashhad from 2007 to 2016
Population Carbon Dioxide emission
25,000,000 4,000,000
20,000,000
3,000,000
15,000,000
2,000,000
10,000,000
1,000,000
5,000,000
0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
According to Iran’s latest energy balance sheet (2018), CO2 emissions in this country are
separated by economic sectors, with most of the emissions concentrated in the
metropolises (Administration of Economic Affairs and Finance of Khorasan Razavi
Province, 2018). The sectors with the highest CO2 emission in Iran are power generation
(electricity and heat), transportation, residential, commercial and public buildings, and
industry, which are roughly similar to global trends (Administration of Economic Affairs
and Finance of Khorasan Razavi Province, 2018). Metropolitan areas of Iran also have a
similar situation in this respect.
5 The CO2 emission conceptual model
This section presents the implementation of the research methodology considering the
case study environment. Section 5.1 sets the boundaries which are the first step in the
research methodology. Steps 2 to 4 are conducted simultaneously in the rest of the
subsections to develop the conceptual model. Step 5 is conducted through a discussion in
Section 6.
5.1 Problem, objective, boundaries, and key variables

The problem of this research model is the excessive and uncontrolled emission of CO2.
Urban politicians, decision-makers, and planners typically have little interest in climate
change and CO2 emissions. They may, however, feel obligated to build enough green
spaces or short-term limitations to local air pollution control and improvement in order to
avoid air pollution-induced political pressure and focus more on the economy, business,
real estate and other lucrative aspects of the urban management. But in the long term,
CO2 emissions will increase by their main interests. The solution is to long-run control
the increasing consumption of non-renewable fossil fuels and maintains and develop
natural resources and green spaces for CO2 absorption. The boundary of this model was
delineated according to the geographical and morphological boundaries of the city of
Mashhad, which depend on the form, land use structure, and built area of the city
(Parshall et al., 2010). Given Iran’s commitment to reduce CO2 emission by 4%–12%
(8% by average) relative to 2010, urban officials in Mashhad have also committed to
reducing the city’s average annual emission by 8% by 2030 (relative to 2010 figures).
The final list of variables that were deemed suitable for the studied area (Mashhad) is
presented in Table 2. Since some variables were retitled, the references from which they
are derived are also provided to clarify their origins.
Table 2 Variables and their descriptions and units according to the related references
Variables Units References

Urban CO2 emissions Gigatons IPCC (2014), Fang et al. (2015),
Lu (2018)
Population Million people Rusiawan et al. (2015), Wang
et al. (2018b), Friedrich and Trois
(2016), Alirezaei et al. (2017),
OECD (2016), Liao et al. (2013)
People per capita income Million Rials IEA (2018b), Leibowicz (2017),
OECD (2016), Wang et al.
(2017a, 2017b) Cui et al. (2018)
The pressure to reduce CO2 emission 0 or 1 Sterman (2016)
The desired level of the urban CO2 Gigatons
emission
Control and reduction policies for 0 or 1 IPCC (2014), Armah et al.
fossil fuels consumption (2010), Manohar et al. (2014),
Protection and development policies 0 or 1 Vafa-Arani et al. (2014), Cheng
for the green space and natural sink et al. (2015), Martinez-Jaramilo
sources of the CO2 et al. (2017), Wang et al. (2017a),
Grote et al. (2017)
Green space and plants volume Million square Andriono et al. (2013), Fuady
metres et al. (2014), Rusiawan et al.
(2015), Wang et al. (2017a)
Urban total direct and indirect fossil Million cubic IPCC (2014), Lu (2018), Liao
fuels consumption metres/million et al. (2013), Parshall et al.
litres (2010)
Total final energy consumption of Million cubic IPCC (2014), Leibowicz (2017),
urban built area metres/million Cui et al. (2018)
litres
Total final energy consumption for Million cubic IPCC (2014), Liu et al. (2015b),
transportation metres/million Alirezaei et al. (2017), Liao et al.
litres (2013), Azhaginiyal and
Umadevi (2014)
(continued)

Urban built space area Million square IPCC (2014), Wang et al. (2018a,
metres 2017a), Zubelzu and Fernández
Urban open space area Million square (2016), Fuady et al. (2014), Fang
metres et al. (2015), Liao et al. (2013)
Total area of the urban active built Million cubic
spaces metres
Construction rate of types of land use Million cubic
metres
Urban net density People/square IPCC (2014), Zubelzu and
metre Fernández (2016), Wang et al.
(2018a, 2018b, 2017b), Fang
et al. (2015), Dulal et al. (2011)
Mixed land use rate Entropy index IPCC (2014), Dulal et al. (2011),
(between 0 to 1) Moss et al. (2018)
Urban IT services Number of IT Liu et al. (2015), Salahuddin
services et al. (2016), Demir et al. (2017)
Culture-building of consumption and Million Rials Popli et al. (2017), Friedrich and
waste production Trois (2016), Vilaysouk and
Trip volumes for urban waste Million kilometre Babel (2017), Demir et al. (2017)
transported
Urban total waste generated Million tons Popli et al. (2017), Dulal et al.
(2011), Vilaysouk and Babel
(2017), Demir et al. (2017)
Urban waste generation per capita Million tons Popli et al. (2017), Alirezaei et al.
(2017), OECD (2016), Demir
et al. (2017)
Total urban motorised trips volume Million trips IPCC (2014), Liu et al. (2015b),
Ercan et al. (2016), Grote et al.
(2017), Azhaginiyal and
Umadevi (2014)
Annual motorised trips volume per Trip per people Leibowicz (2017), Azhaginiyal
capita and Umadevi (2014)
Probability of the trip by private or A number IPCC (2014), Sterman (2016),
public vehicle transportation between 0 to 1 Liu et al. (2015a), Ercan et al.
(2016), Dulal et al. (2011),
Bajracharya (2016)
Trip volumes by public, private or Million trips IPCC (2014), Liu et al. (2012),
cargo transport vehicles Ercan et al. (2016), Wang et al.
(2017b), Azhaginiyal and
Umadevi (2014)
Service level of public transport Qualitative Armah et al. (2010), Vafa-Arani
(F to A) 0 to 6 et al. (2014), Liu et al. (2015a),
Wang et al. (2017b)
(continued)

Average private vehicles speed Kilometre per IPCC (2014), Armah et al.
hours (2010), Vafa-Arani et al. (2014),
Liu et al. (2015a), Alirezaei et al.
(2017), Wang et al. (2017a),
Grote et al. (2017), Azhaginiyal
and Umadevi (2014)
Total trips length by public, private or Million kilometre IPCC (2014), Alirezaei et al.
cargo transportation (2017), et al. (2017b), Grote et al.
Average trip length of each public, Million kilometre (2017), Azhaginiyal and
private or cargo vehicle Umadevi (2014)
Average number of passengers per People per vehicle Liu et al. (2015a), Grote et al.
public, private of cargo vehicle in (2017)
each trip
The number of public, private or Vehicles Sterman (2016), Liu et al.
cargo transportation vehicles (2015a), Grote et al. (2017)
Average age of vehicles Year Grote et al. (2017), Meng et al.
(2016)
5.1.1 Total fossil fuels consumption and CO2 emission control policies
Modelling process started with the main variable CO2 emission, as it is a tangible
parameter that can be measured quantitatively. As illustrated in Figure 5, the CO2
released in Mashhad depends on the total consumption of fossil fuels in this urban.
Figure 5 The urban determinant factor of CO2 released (based on the opinions of experts)
Total fossil fuels Carbon Dioxide

consumption emissions inventory
As suggested by the experts as well as Parshall et al. (2010), only fossil fuel consumption
within the urban boundaries, was considered in analyses. In other words, the portion of
fossil fuel that is consumed outside the urban boundaries, which may indeed benefit the
city itself, was ignored. Fossil fuels that are consumed in an urban are ultimately used by
two major sectors:
1 urban transportation
2 urban built areas.
In the urban transportation sector, fossil fuel is consumed directly through the distribution
and use of gasoline, and diesel and natural gas, and indirectly through the use of
electricity, especially in the public transport and subway system. In the urban built area
sector, direct fossil fuel consumption refers to the use of natural gas in residential,
commercial, service, and administrative buildings for heating and cooking purposes and
the consumption of other fossil fuels in buildings that have dedicated power generation
facilities inside the city. The indirect fossil fuel consumption in the urban built area sector
refers to electrical power consumption in buildings and other built spaces, such as street
passages, green spaces, etc.
Figure 6 The fossil fuel consumption factors along with the CO2 emissions reduction factors
Protection and development

Control and reduction policies for the green space and
+
policies for fossil fuels natural sink sources of the
consumption + Carbon Dioxide
+
Pressure to reduce
carbon dioxide B1 Green space and
emission plants volume
Desired level of the
-
+
urban carbon dioxide
emission
-
Urban Carbon
Dioxide emissions
+
Urban total direct and
indirect fossil fuels
consumption
+
Total final energy

Total final energy
consumption for
consumption of urban
transportation
built area
The consumption of fossil fuel in the urban results in CO2 emission. The effect of
emission can be reduced by natural processes of CO2 absorption by plants, trees, and
green spaces. However, the combination of excessive CO2 emissions with deforestation
and shrinkage of green spaces in the course of urban development can severely interrupt
the urban’s environmental balance, leading to higher than expected emission over the
long term. Therefore, depending on the urban’s commitments and environmental plan,
some measures should be adopted to control the increasing consumption of fossil fuels
and promote the preservation and development of green environments and natural
resources. Figure 6 shows the status of the CO2 emission assuming that such policies are
in place. The loop (B1) titled ‘CO2 Capture Capacity Improvement’ attempts to reduce
CO2 emissions to acceptable levels regardless of other solutions.
5.2 Energy consumption in transportation and built areas

The studies of Azhaginiyal and Umadevi (2014), Vafa-Arani et al. (2014), and Cheng
et al. (2015) introduced and used the indicators ‘vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT)’ and
‘vehicle kilometres travelled per capita’ as the main measures of fuel consumption and
CO2 emission in the transportation sector. Motor vehicles that may traverse the urban
roads were divided into three groups:
1 cars, motorbikes, and taxis, which were labelled ‘private transportation’
2 buses, minibuses, and subways, which were labelled ‘public transportation’
3 trucks, pickup trucks, and trailer trucks, which were labelled ‘cargo transportation’.
Population
Figure 7
Pepple per
capita Incom
Protection and development + +

Control and reduction policies for the green space and Requirment of urban land
policies for fossil fuels natural sink sources of the use types like residential,
consumption + commercial, and etc
+ Carbon Dioxide
version for colours)
+
Pressure to reduce Green space and
carbon dioxide B1 plants volume +
emission Cnstruction rate of
- + types of land use
Desired level of the

urban carbon dioxide
emission Urban Carbon - +
Total area of the
Dioxide emissions urban active built
+ spaces
Average energy
consumption per types
of built spaces
Total final energy
consumption of urban +
built area +
Total trips length by Urban total direct and
Public Transportation indirect fossil fuels
Average private
vehicles speed in the consumption +
city Energy consumption +
+ of urban public Total final energy
transport consumption for
Total trips length by + transportation
Private Transportation + + +
-
Energy consumption of
Total trips length by urban private
Cargo Transportation + transportation
A new conceptual model for CO2 reduction in hot and dry urban areas
Average age of Energy consumption of

vehicles +
urban cargo
Urban transportation and urban built area energy consumption factors (see online
+ transportation
341
These vehicles consume various types of fossil fuels including petrol, gasoline and
natural gas, except subways in the public transport category, which are powered by
electricity (given the research objectives, only motorised modes of transport that consume
fuel and produce CO2 were considered).
According to the research literature and the experts, in addition to the total trip length,
the reduced vehicle speed in traffic congestions also increases the CO2 emissions in two
ways: first, reducing engine performance and second, increasing the idling of the engine.
These factors have particularly significant effects in the category of private transport.
Similar arguments have been made in the studies of Wang et al. (2017b), Grote et al.
(2017) and Liu et al. (2015a). Traffic congestion in urban streets can be measured by
travel speed (average speed of trips in the city in km/h). As suggested by the experts and
in the research literature, fuel consumption in the cargo transport category is affected not
only by trip length but also by the age of vehicles. As vehicles age, they start to consume
more fuel. The left side of Figure 7 shows the energy consumption in the transportation
sector by the public, private, and cargo vehicles and VKT of these vehicles on the routes
between different urban areas. In this figure, the negative effect of travel speed is
presented as ‘average vehicle speed in the city’ and the positive effect of the age of
vehicles is presented as ‘average vehicle age’.
In the next sector, urban built area energy consumption, according to the experts is
depended on the volume of constructed buildings and other artificial environments types
in different zones of the city. No constructed spaces, no energy consumption facilities.
The greater the area of built spaces in a city, against the open spaces, leads to higher
energy consumption. Given the 20-year timeframe (2010–2030) considered in this study,
the role of technological progress in energy consumption of built areas was considered to
be constant.
The total area of the urban active built spaces in the city increases with the rate of
construction types of land uses and may remain constant or even decrease if the
development stagnates and buildings get abandoned or destroyed. The rate of
construction can be estimated in terms of the area of construction projects currently
underway, which is associated with the direct need of the population to housing,
employment, recreation, etc. and the state of financing by private and public investments.
Hence, as shown in the right side of Figure 7, energy consumption for the built areas was
assumed to depend on the area of urban active built spaces in the city, itself being
dependent on the construction rate, population’s need for development, and income level.
5.3 VKT, vehicle speed and age

The consulted experts believed that the increased VKT and the decreased vehicle speed
in Mashhad are associated with 1) the number of vehicles in the city, 2) the volume of the
use of vehicles by citizens for trip between land use zones (purpose of trips), and 3)
average trip length over a certain time period. Traffic congestion occurs when trips occur
at the same time and through the same roads, especially with private vehicles. When trips
cannot be avoided or rerouted, traffic and VKT (per capita) can be decreased by
promoting carpooling (as opposed to each person using one car). The consulted experts
also believed that the volume and distance of motorised trips and the resulting traffic
congestion can be reduced by planning or adjusting the urban layout so that typical origin
and destination land use zones are positioned closely and sufficiently mixed. When done
successfully, this land use mixing encourages citizens to use non-motorised modes of
transport such as walking or cycling, use public transportation, and carpool when
possible. Similar variables have also been used by Liu et al. (2015a) (specifically mix
land use) and Moss et al. (2018) and Dulal et al. (2011).
Equation (1) shows the formula for the calculation of total distance travelled with
private vehicle derived from Sterman (2016) and modified according to the expert inputs.
The calculations for public and cargo transport were also performed with similar
formulas.
Total trips length with private vehicle (kilometre)
Total trip volume with private vehicles
= (1)
Average number of passengers in each private vehicle
×Average trip length with personal vehicles (kilometre)
Assuming that urban roads have a constant capacity, the main determinant of travel speed
is the volume of trips with private vehicles (Sterman, 2016; Cheng et al., 2015). Finally,
the age of public and cargo vehicles was considered to be a function of local policies and
regulations. This age may decrease under local and national pressure to modernise urban
public and cargo transport fleets and otherwise gradually increases with time. With the
assumption that these policies and regulations are in step with fossil fuel consumption
control policies, two loops for emission reduction were defined: one through the
improvement and modernisation of public transport fleet (B2) and another for the
improvement and modernisation of cargo transport fleet (B3). These loops are illustrated
in Figure 8.
5.4 Trip volume and land use mixing rate

With the ‘average number of carpools’ (per year) considered an exogenous variable, the
next step of model development was to identify the determinants of the variables ‘trip
volume for each vehicle type’ and ‘mix land use rate’. According to the consulted experts
and reviewed documents and research literature, to estimate the volume of trips with
different vehicles, one should have:
1 an estimate of the total volume of motorised trips in the city
2 a way to estimate the distribution of the use of private and public transport.
Researchers have proposed various methods for differentiating trips with private and
public vehicles (Sterman, 2016; Liu et al., 2015; Bajracharya, 2016). In this study, the
variable ‘trip probability’, which was considered to depend on the attractiveness of each
transportation mode, was used. Equation (2) shows the relationship between the
probability of using public transport and private transport, as the probability of using
public transportation decreases (because of unattractiveness), the probability of using
private vehicles increases.
Probability of usingpublic transport + Probability of using private transport = 1 (2)
344
Figure 8
People per
capita Income
Population
Cultur-building of
consumption and waste
production + +
B4 Mixed land
+ Types of urban land use like
-
<People per + use rate residential, commercial,
Urban waste + and etc required
generation per capita Income>
capita
++ Protection and development
Urban total waste Control and reduction policies for the green space and Urban built
geneerated Total urban + +
policies for fossil fuels + natural sink sources of the space area
motorized trips
volume consumption Carbon Dioxide
+
A. Mostafaeipour et al.
Trip volumes for B5

+ + -
urban waste Pressure to reduce
transported probability of the trip by carbon dioxide Green space and Construction rate of Urban open
probability of the trip B1
Private vehicle emission plants volume types of land use space area
by Public + +
transportation - +
transportation
Urban legal
+ + + + + Desired level of the
+ area
Trip volumes by Trip volumes by Trip volumes by urban carbon dioxide Urban Carbon
cargo transport Average private Dioxide emissions -
private transport public transport emission +
vehicles vehicles speed +
vehicles vehicles Total area of the
- + urban active built
Average number of spaces
Average number of Urban desired
passengers per private vehicle speed passengers per public
transport vehicle Average energy
transport vehicle + + - consumption per types
Number of private The number of public of built spaces
- transportation transportation vehicles
Average number of Average trip length of Total final energy +
vehicles
passengers per cargo each public transport consumption of urban +
transport vehicle + Vehicle built area
Number of cargo Urban total direct and
transportation + indirect fossil fuels +
- +
vehicles Total trips length by consumption
Public Transportation +
Average trip length of
<Mixed land each Private Vehicle
- Total final energy
use rate> + Energy consumption
Total trips length by + consumption for
B6 of urban public
+ Private Transportation transportation
transport + + +
B7 +
-
Average trip length
-
of each cargo vehicle + Energy consumption of
Total trips length by urban private
+ B2 +
Cargo Transportation transportation
<Control and reduction
policies for fossil fuels
consumption> Energy consumption of
Average age of +
B3 urban cargo
+ vehicles
transportation
+
Incorporating VKT, vehicle speed and age, travel volume, and land use mixing rate
Based on this definition, equations (3) and (4) show the differentiation of the total
demand for motorised trips into the demand for private transport and the demand for
public transport. According to the definitions of attractiveness and satisfaction in the
transportation models of previous works, the probability of trips depends on variables
such as citizens’ income level, quality of travel with each method (congestion and service
level), and local laws and regulations that affect the choice of the transportation mode.
Travel volume withprivate vehicle = Total demand for motorised travel
(3)
×Probability of usingprivate transport
Travel volume withpublic vehicle = Total demand for motorised travel

(4)
×Probability of usingpublic transport
For the volume of cargo trips, a different approach was taken. Given the absolute need
for cargo transport across the urban (for example to collect and transport waste), the
number of cargo trips and their average annual VKT is a typically constant value
(because these trips cannot be replaced with other modes of transportation). The volume
depends on the total volume of waste produced in the city and the waste generation per
capita of the population (citizens, migrants, and visitors). In this regard, policymakers can
gradually reduce the municipal waste generation by raising awareness about the
environmental impacts of waste production and waste management challenges. Success
in this endeavour will mean not only decreased waste generation but also reduced cargo
transport for waste management purposes, which results in reduced fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions. In the model, these causal relations are represented by the loop B4. Other
components of cargo transport were considered to be independent and exogenous.
The increase in population size and income level will increase the demand for
housing, employment, leisure and also fast and convenient transportation, which leads to
increased development of residential, commercial, service, and recreational zones, roads,
green spaces, etc. within the urban boundaries. The loop B5 is intended to represent the
restriction of construction and development activities within the urban boundaries. The
variable ‘mix land use’ is not fixed and depends on urban planning policies and
regulations push for greater control over land use mixing and attempt to increase the
mixing rate by regulating construction. Considering the variety of factors that are
associated with land use mixing, two other balancing loops named B6 and B7 were also
added to the model. Figure 8 illustrates the determinants of the volume of motorised trips
with each type of transport and the land use mixing rate along with the aforementioned
loops.
5.5 Trip probability

The next step was to determine the factors of the probability of trips with public or
private vehicles. After consulting with the experts and reviewing previous studies, the
probability of trips with public transport was considered to be a constant number
determined by
1 public transport service level, which includes quality, capacity, time and cost
2 the speed of public transport relative to the speed of travel with private vehicles
3 laws, regulations, and policies that encourage citizens to use public transport.
It should be noted that since creation, development, and management of public

transportation is a responsibility of local governments and people do not play a direct role
in this regard, by default, they use either private vehicles or non-motorised modes of
transport (when convenient). In the model, the loop B8 (Figure 9) titled ‘balancing of the
attractiveness of public transport’, that intended to control the volume of trips with public
transport vehicles according to the service level. By linking the probability of use of
public transportation to the fossil fuel consumption control policies, which include the
promotion and support of public transport, a reinforcing loop for the use of public
transport (R1) was created. Having a large public transport fleet will increase CO2
emission, but not nearly as much as giving passengers no choice but to use private
vehicles.
Naturally, when the number of private vehicles on urban roads rises above what they
can effectively handle, the end result will be increased traffic congestion and severely
reduced travel speed. As people become dissatisfied with the transportation system, they
start to compare their own travel speed with the travel speed that they would have with
alternative solutions such as public transport. Eventually, some people switch to those
better alternatives, which result in the decreased use of private vehicles for urban trips.
This causal relationship is represented by the B9 loop named ‘balancing of the
attractiveness of private transport’, which tries to balance the volume of the use of private
vehicles. According to the above description, the probability of use of private
transportation is also a constant value determined by:
1 the probability of people using public transport
2 the per capita income of people (their ability to afford private vehicle)
3 policies and regulations that limit the use of private vehicles.
The loops B10 and B11 represent that the reduced number of cars and increased travel
speed both reduce fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emission. Over time, this decreases
the pressure on the government to adopt public transport friendly policies and ultimately
leads to a greater tendency to use private vehicles instead of public transport.
In the absence of adequate investment in the infrastructure and service level of public
transport or any restriction on the use of private vehicles in the city, people will be
encouraged to invest in purchasing and using a private car, and this makes the private
transportation the default mode of travel. The consequent increase in the number of
private vehicles in the city will increase the fuel consumption in two ways:
1 increasing the VKT
2 reducing the speed of trips by causing and exacerbating congestion.
With the gradual increase in CO2 emission, ultimately, the local government will be
pressured to act; an action that will result in lower use of private vehicles. In the model,
these relations are represented by the loops B12 and B13. But with the decrease in travel
speed, people begin comparing the speed of available options and some of them will
switch to private transport. This switch will increase the VKT of private transportation,
which again increases fuel consumption and CO2 emission. When the emission rate
exceeds the desired level, the pressure on local government will return and another round
of emission reduction policy such as renewal and modernisation of public transport fleet
(B2) or further limitation of the use of private cars (B14) will be introduced.
The effect of urban form, as represented by the factor ‘net urban density’, on the
probability of using private or public transportation and the trip volume for waste
management vehicles was also modelled. Studied carried out by Ebadinia and Sadeghi
(2017) and Dulal et al. (2011) have also confirmed the important role of urban density in
reducing automobile dependency and use of private vehicles. This is because urban
regulations and policies that increase net urban density and favour vertical expansion
over horizontal often involve building public transport infrastructure around the densely
populated areas. These infrastructures increase the probability of using public transport
by giving access to a large number of people with concentrated residence in one area.
Also, the congestion that is typical to densely populated areas further discourages people
from using private cars. Furthermore, the vertical expansion of an urban area necessitates
a much smaller increase in the size of the waste collection fleet than the horizontal
expansion does. In the model, the described relationships are represented by the
reinforcing loop R2, which reflects the emission of the public transport sector, and the
balancing loops B15, B16 and B17, which are related to the emission of private and cargo
transport vehicles.
The net urban density itself is not constant and depends on the size of the population
and the built area. When the built area is constant, population growth increases the
density, and when the population is constant, an increase in the built area decreases the
density. Figure 9 shows the aforementioned loops for the probability of travel with
different types of vehicle.
5.6 The final CO2 emission model

The final step of modelling was to determine the factors of demand for motorised trips.
According to the four-stage transportation model, the primary cause of this demand is the
population’s need to trip between occupational, residential, recreational, and other zones.
After reviewing the data pertaining to the annual motorised traffic in the city of Mashhad,
the consulted experts defined a per capita figure for the annual number of trips in this
city. The annual demand for motorised trips was then determined by multiplying the said
per capita figure by the population size of Mashhad. In this study, the causes of changes
in the population size and per capita income were considered to be exogenous and
uncontrollable. The urban’s motorised trip per capita was considered to be constant. The
motorised trip per capita was found to be strongly affected by the variables ‘land use
mixing rate’ and ‘IT service level’. As mentioned earlier, urban planners can reduce the
trip demand, shorten the travel distance, and promote the use of cleaner modes of
transport by increasing the area of diverse and mixed land uses, moving residential, retail,
office, recreational and entertainment land zones closer to each other, limiting urban
sprawl, and increasing the urban density in well-managed areas. These measures reduce
the per capita demand for motorised trips, which leads to reduced fuel consumption and
CO2 emission. Another effective approach is to aggressively promote the use of
information technology (IT) solutions for day-to-day activities so as to reduce daily
urban-wide trips for service or bureaucratic purposes. The validity of these arguments
was verified by the consulted experts. Also, similar conclusions have been made in the
study of Ebadinia and Sadeghi (2017). Although IT-based services will increase the
average energy consumption per types of built spaces (loop R3). Policies and regulations
of local governments may also improve the provision of IT-based services, land use
mixing, and the number of trips per capita over the long term. In the end, CO2 emission
model of Mashhad was completed by plotting the cause-and-effect relationships between
policies and the variables ‘land use mixing’, ‘IT-based services’, and ‘motorised trips per
capita’ and developing other balancing loops of the model (B18 to B39) according to the
causal relationships described in the previous sections. These effects and relationships are
displayed in Figure 9.
6 Discussion
The model of Figure 9 was developed by navigating a complex and difficult path to reach
consensus among the urban planning and engineering and transportation experts. In the
course of this process, the opinions, hypotheses, and suggestions of all experts were
documented, the resulting subjective models were all discussed and criticised in group
sessions, and modifications were made as needed. The output of this process was an
integrated model with the assumptions that were acceptable for all experts and consistent
with the research literature.
According to the CO2 emission model developed in Figure 9, with the continued
disregard of urban planners and policymakers for the issue of CO2 emission, the steady
population growth, horizontal expansion, and increasing urban sprawl will only increase
the use of private vehicles in the city and the resulting CO2 emission. This effect,
however, can be partially reduced by adopting a policy of:
1 controlling the consumption of fossil fuels in urban planning and transport sectors
2 preserving and expanding natural resources and urban green spaces.
Using the developed model, urban managers can predict the future impacts of their
decisions or urban plans and projects that need their approval on the amount of CO2 that
will be emitted from the city either directly or indirectly through other modes of energy
consumption. With this capability, urban managers will be able to make the necessary
adjustments in plans and projects to reduce their negative impact on CO2 emission or
adopt other measures simultaneously to nullify or at least limit the negative effects.
Considering the archetype and general patterns of the model, it seems the model has a
goal seeking and oscillating behaviour, which, as shown in Figure 10, consists of both
positive and negative feedbacks with delay effects. The model can reflect the situation
where delays effect causes an excessive increase in CO2 emissions and when urban
policymakers adopt necessary measures to address the problem. Because of the delays in
the urban system sectors as well as delays in executing policies and decisions, the amount
of CO2 emissions may greatly increase. After the policies adopted to address the issue,
may greatly decrease this parameter. The greater the delays are, the more intense will be
the fluctuations. As can be seen, because of the delays in the receiving information of
declined emissions and adoption of excessively strict policies leads to an unreasonably
large decrease in CO2 emission levels, and then because of the same delays, an excessive
change occurs in the opposite direction. Eventually, the system starts to show a normal
behaviour around the desirable emission rate. Naturally, magnitude and periods of these
fluctuations are irregular and can be affected by many factors.
+
Cultur-building of <Control and reduction
consumption and waste policies for fossil fuels
B4 production consumption>
<People per
capita Income>
+
Figure 9
+
B24 Population Urban net -
++ B22 density
Urban waste B20 B23
Mixed land
generation per use rate + <People per
B19 B21 capita Income>
capita B27 B29 B31
B18 B25
- B26 B28 B30
Urban IT + +
+ + Annual motorized -
Types of urban land use like
Total urban trips volume per - services +
residential, commercial,
B32 B36
+ + motorized trips capita and etc required
B37
Urban total waste volume
generated B33 B38
B34
B39 B35
<U rban net
Protection and development
density> People per B10
Control and reduction policies for the green space and Urban built
+
capita Income policies for fossil fuels natural sink sources of the space area
consumption + Carbon Dioxide
B17 +
B13 R1
+ B14
+ - - + B5
- +
Trip volumes for Probability of the trip by Probabilityof the trip
B15 B16 Pressure to reduce + + -
urban waste Private vehicle +
by Public <Urban net Urban open
transportation R2 - carbon dioxide Green space and Construction rate of
transported transportation density> B1 space area
+ emission plants volume types of land use
B12 +
+ +
B9 Desired level of the
B8 service level of +
+ +- + + + public transport urban carbon dioxide Urban legal
Trip volumes by + emission area
Trip volumes by Speed of travel with public Trip volumes by -
cargo transport Urban Carbon -
private transport transport to travel by public transport Desired service level + <U rban IT
vehicles Dioxide emissions Total area of the
vehicles personal transport vehicles of public transport +
- urban active built services>
Average number of Average number of spaces
passengers per private passengers per public +
transport vehicle transport vehicle Average energy
+ + - consumption per types
+ R3
-
Number of private The number of public Total final energy of built spaces
transportation transportation vehicles consumption of urban
Average number of Average trip length of
vehicles Average private built area +
passengers per cargo each public transport
vehicles speed
transport vehicle - + Vehicle
+
Number of cargo B11 +
+
- transportation Total trips length by Urban total direct and +
Urban desired Public Transportation indirect fossil fuels
vehicles vehicle speed consumption
<Mixed land +
use rate> Average trip length of Total final energy
+ Energy consumption
- each Private Vehicle Total trips length by + consumption for
B6 of urban public
Private Transportation transportation
+ transport
B7 + + +
+
-
A new conceptual model for CO2 reduction in hot and dry urban areas
The final model of CO2 emission in Mashhad (see online version for colours)
Average trip length

of each cargo vehicle - Energy consumption of
+Total trips length by
+ urban private
Cargo Transportation +
<Control and reduction transportation
policies for fossil fuels B2
consumption> Energy consumption of
Average age of + urban cargo
vehicles B3
+ transportation
349
+
Using the proposed model (Figure 9), the system behaviour plots (Figure 10), and the
scenarios presented in Table 3, policymakers can exert control over the CO2 emission.
The emission reduction will be mostly achieved over the long run through long-term
urban programs and revision of ongoing projects, but in some cases, a short-term
reduction is also possible. The combined use of multiple scenarios can reduce fossil fuel
consumption and CO2 emission at an exponential rate.
Table 3 Urban CO2 emission reduction scenarios and solutions
No. Scenario and solution description

1 Increasing the city’s net urban density in the long run by preventing any expansion in the
city area and boundaries
2 Increasing the city’s net urban density in the long run and using smart energy
technologies in densely populated areas
3 Increasing the city’s land use mixing rate to reduce motorised trips and increase
non-motorised ones
4 Promoting the use of IT-based smart city services and the Internet of things in the city
5 Improving the attractiveness of public transportation by modernising the city’s bus fleet
and cargo (waste) transport vehicles
6 Improving the attractiveness of public transportation by expanding the subway system
and bus lines to increase accessibility
7 Increasing the attractiveness of public transportation by reducing the price of services and
providing free services
8 Increasing the speed of public transport services
9 Educating and encouraging citizens to boost carpooling
10 Increasing the cost of using private cars by defining restricted access areas and imposing
fines and parking fees
11 Preserving and expanding the natural resources and urban green spaces inside and around
the city
12 Educating citizen about waste management and reduction practices
13 Limiting the expansion of built spaces and rehabilitating and reconstructing the existing
buildings, passages, and spaces
Figure 10 The model behaviour in accordance with the archetype of the purposeful-oscillating
of SD (see online version for colours)
Of course, the implementation of these scenarios will impose significant costs on the
government and urban management body. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully assess
the long-term cost and benefits of each measure by estimating the costs to be incurred in
each scenario and then comparing the results with the anticipated damages of increased
CO2 emission to the city and to the satisfaction of citizens and tourists with the city
condition.
Despite having advantages, the limitations of this research are as follows:
• The proposed model provides qualitative and intuitive results based on the beliefs of
Iranian experts on urban management.
• From among different industrial sectors, waste management was the only sector to be
considered. Other sectors were ignored because they were not present within the
boundaries of the studied city. Agriculture, rail, and air transport sectors were also
not considered.
• Among the various sources of CO2 emission, only the main source, which is fossil
fuel, was considered. Also, other approaches to CO2 emission reduction, such as the
use of renewable energies, were ignored as they were outside the authority of the
Iranian urban management system.
7 Conclusions
The purpose of this research was how urban managers and decision makers can handle
the excessive and uncontrolled emission of CO2 from the city in their scope of authority.
This research has tried to develop a conceptual model for illustrating how fossil fuels are
consumed in an urban system and CO2 is produced to solve the problem. In this model,
the key variables of the discussion and the causal relationship between them, as shaped
by the Iranian urban management system and its unique features and requirements, are
presented. This model contains a total of 41 loops, of which 3 are reinforcing and the rest
are balancing. After comparing the model with the previous models in the research
literature, the consulted experts confirmed its validity and verified its ability to provide
better insights into the problem of CO2 emission in the urban and to consider a wider
range of variables involved in the discussion.
The presented causal loop model can contribute to urban decision-making,
policymaking, and planning, especially in Iran. This model will help decision-makers
observe and track the causal relationships between decision variables and predict the
likely results of their long-term policies and choices in different parts of the urban on
CO2 emission. One of the most important achievements of this research is integrating and
coordinating the different and conflicting views of decision makers of sectors and
departments of urban management together and put them in a model with the common
goal. Another result is identifying the parameters and variables whose change is critical
for improving the system behaviour and controlling the CO2 emission and introducing
several scenarios for this change.
Given the aforementioned limitations, suggestions for future research are:
1 Develop, formulate, and simulate the causal loop model of this research with an SD
stock-flow diagram, and determine the state of fossil fuel consumption and CO2
emission and the impact of scenarios quantitatively.
2 The model could be expanding to determine the status of direct and indirect
consumption of fossil fuels in the sectors that were not covered in this work,
including industry, agriculture, rail and air transport, and suburban roads as well as
other CO2 emission and absorption sources.
3 Further research on the costs and damages of climate change and air pollution in
Mashhad and Iran is necessary for attracting the support of government and
charitable organisations for handling the cost of reducing fossil fuel consumption
scenarios.
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A New Conceptual Model For CO2 Reduction in Hot and Dry Urban Areas A Case Study of Mashhad in Iran

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Int. J. Global Warming, Vol. 21, No.

A new conceptual model for CO2 reduction in hot and

Ali Mostafaeipour* and Mojtaba Shakeriravesh

Mohammad Saleh Owlia

Abstract: This research aims to introduce a conceptual model for reduction of

Keywords: CO2 emission; conceptual model; system dynamics; urban areas;

Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Mostafaeipour, A.,

Copyright © 2020 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Biographical notes: Ali Mostafaeipour is an Associate Professor of Industrial

Mojtaba Shakeriravesh is a PhD candidate at industrial Engineering in Yazd

Mohsen Naderpour received his PhD from the University of Technology

Mohammad Saleh Owlia is a Professor of Industrial Engineering at Yazd

Source: Le Quéré et al. (2018)

2.1 Urban planning

2.2 Decision making and modelling

2.3 System dynamics

2.3.1 Causal loop diagram

Figure 2 Basic CLD

2.3.2 Dynamic hypothesis

2.4 CO2 production and reduction SD models

References Subject terms SD software Comment

References Subject terms SD software Comment

SD analysis is an approach for understanding the nonlinear behaviour of complex

Population Carbon Dioxide emission

5 The CO2 emission conceptual model

5.1 Problem, objective, boundaries, and key variables

Variables Units References

Variables Units References

Variables Units References

Total fossil fuels Carbon Dioxide

Protection and development

Total final energy

5.2 Energy consumption in transportation and built areas

Protection and development + +

Desired level of the

Average age of Energy consumption of

5.3 VKT, vehicle speed and age

5.4 Trip volume and land use mixing rate

Trip volumes for B5

Travel volume withpublic vehicle = Total demand for motorised travel

5.5 Trip probability

It should be noted that since creation, development, and management of public

5.6 The final CO2 emission model

Average trip length

No. Scenario and solution description

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