Questions on Topic Nine: Probability as Relative Frequency 229 Questions on Topic Nine: probability as Relative Frequency _- wultiple-Choice Questions ‘Phe questions of incomplete statements that follow are each by five suggested answers or completions. Choose response that best ve the question of completes the statement. 1, A suadent reasons that either he will ot will not receive a 5 ox the AP Sutsties exam, and therefore the probability of receiving a 5 is 0.5. Why is this incorrect reasoning? (A) The events are mutually exclusive. {B) The events are independent. {C) The events are not independent. {(D) The events are complements. {E) The events are not equally probable. In the November 27, 1994, issue of Pande magazine, the “Ask Marilyn’ section contained this question: “Suppose a person was having, two surgeries performed at the same time. Ifthe chances of success for surgery A are 85%, find the chances of success for surgery B are 90%, what are the chances that both would fail?” What do you think of Marilyn’ solution: (.15)(.10) = .015 or 1.59%? (A) Her solution is mathematically correct buc not explained very well. (B) Her solution is both mathematically correct and intuitively obvious. (© Her use of complementary events is incorrect. {D) Her use of the general addition formula is incorrect. (©) She assumed independence of events, which is most likely wrong. . A.weighted die comes up spots with the following probabilities: Spots eee eee SEO) Probability 1015-2025 2010 If two of these dice are thrown, what is the probability the sum is 10? (A) (.25)(.10) + (20) (B) 2(25)(.10) + (20)? (C) 2.25)(.10) + 220) {D) (.10)(.20)(,10) + (20)? (B) (.10)(.20)(.10) + (15)¢25)? + (15)(20)(.20) + (.25)(10)230 AP Statistics 4 According to a CBS/ New York Times poll raken in 1992, 15% of the public have responded to a telephone call-in poll. In a random group of five people, what isthe probability that exactly «wo have responded to a call-in poll? (A) 138 (B) 165 © 300 (D) .835 () 973 5, In a 1974 “Dear Abby” lerter a woman lamented that she had just given binh to her eighth child, and all were girls! Her doctor had assured her that the hanes of the eighth child being a gitl was only 1 in 100. What was the real probability that the eighth child would be a git? (A) 01 (8) 5 © (sy (D) (5)* 6. The yearly mortality rate for American men fiom prostate cancer has been | Constant for decades at about 25 of every 100,000 men. (This rate has not / changed in spite of new diagnostic techniques and new treatments.) In 2 ' group of 100 American men, what is the probability thac at least 1 will die from prostate cancer in a given year? (A) 00025 (B) .0247 (© .025 (D) 9753 (®) 99975 I ‘ 7. Alan Dershowitz, one of O. J. Simpson's lawyers, has stated that only 1 out of every 1000 abusive relationships ends in murder each year. If he is correct, and if there are approximately 1.5 million abusive relationships in the United States, what is the expected value for the number of people who are killed each year by an abusive partner? 1 AL {B) 500 (©) 1000 (D) 1500 (B) None of the aboveQuestions on Topic Nine: Probability as Relative Frequency Foran advertising promotion, an auto dealer hands out 1000 lottery tickets with a prize of a new car worth $25,000. For someone with a single ticket, ‘what is the standard deviation for the amount won? (a) $7.07 (B) $25.00 (© $49.95 (©) $790.17 ©) $624,375 o, Suppose that among the 6000 students at a high school, 1500 are taking hhonors courses and 1800 prefer watching basketball co watching football. If taking honors courses and preferring basketball are independent, how many students are both taking honors courses and prefer basketball to football? (a) 300 (B) 330 (© 450 (D) 825 {B) There is insufficient information to answer this question. bic ople, real 10, An inspection procedure at a manufacturing plant involves picking three items at random and then accepting the whole lot if at least nwo of the three items are in perfect condition. If in reality 90% of the whole lot are perfect, what is the probability chat the lot will be accepted? (A) .600 (B) .667 © 729 (D) 810 ® 972 nt ot lie LL. Suppose that, in a certain part of the world, in any 50-year period the proba- bility of a major plague is .39, the probability of a major famine is .52, and the probability of both a plague and a Famine is .15. What is the probability of a famine given that there is a plague? (A) .240 {B) .288 « a nut of ti, nited (©) 370 (D) .385 (2) .760 12. Suppose thas, for any given year, the probabilities thar the scock market declines, chat women’ hemlines are lower, and that both events occur are, respectively, 4, .35, and .3. Are the two events independent? | {A) Yes, because (4)(.35) + 3. {B) No, hecause (4)(.35) # 3. {C) Yes, because 4 > .35 > 3. {D) No, because .5(.3 + 4) = 35. (®) There is insufficient information to answer this question.232 AP Statistics 13. M4. 15. 16. If P(A) = .2 and P(B) = .1, what is P(A U B) if A and Bare independenye (A) .02 B) 28 (©) 30 (b) 32 (B) There is insufficient information to answer this question, ‘The following data are from The Commissioner’ Standard Ordinary Table of Mortality Aso Sear) 10,000,000 9,664,904 9,241,359 5,592,012 ‘What is che probability that a 20-year-old will survive to be 70? (A) .407 (B) .421 (C) 559 (D) 579 () 966 At a warchouse sale 100 customers ate invited to choose one of 100 identical boxes. Five boxes contain $700 color television sets, 25 boxes contain $540 camcorders, and the remaining boxes contain $260 cameras. What should a customer be willing co pay to participate in the sale? (A) $260. (B) $352 (C) $500 (D) $540 (E) $699 ‘There are cwo games involving flipping a coin. In the first game you win a prize if you can throw between 40% and 60% heads. In the second game you win if you can throw more than 75% heads. For each game would you rather flip the coin 50 times or 500 times? (A) 50 times for each gime (B} 500 times for each game {C) 50 times for the first game, and 500 for the second (D) 500 times for the first game, and 50 for the second (B)_ The outcomes of the games do not depend on the number of flips.‘Two cards are picked, without replacement, from a standard deck. Which of the following pairs are independent events? (a) Gertng a beare on the frst pick; geting a diamond on the second, {B) Getting a ed card on the first pick; getting « black card on the second, {© Getting an ace on the fist pick; getting an ace on the second {D) Getting ovo aces; getting two kings. {B) Geting two acess getting a black card othe second pick. ‘Two cards are picked, with replacement, from a standard deck, Which of the ” following pairs are independent events? (A) Getting two aces; getting ewo kings. (8) Getting an ace on the fitst pick; getting a king on the second. (©) Getting at least one ace; getting at least one king. (D) Getting exactly onc ace; getting exactly one king. @) Getting no aces; getting no kings TThe average annual incomes of high school and college graduates in a mid- western town are $21,000 and $35,000, respectively. [Fa company hites only personnel with at least « high school diploma and 20% of its employees have teen through college, what is the mean income of the company employees? (A) $23,800 (B) $27,110 (©) $28,000 (D) $32,200 (B) $56,000 ‘An insurance company charges $800 annually for car insurance. ‘The policy specifies that the company will pay $1000 for a minor accident and $5000 for a major accident. If the probability of a motorist having a minor accident during the year is .2, and of having a major accident, .05, how much can the insurance company expect to make on a policy? (A) $200 B) $250 (C) $300 (D) $350 (E) $450 |. You can choose one of three boxes. Box A has four $5 bills and a single $100 Lill, box B has 400 $5 bills and 100 $100 bills, and box C has 24 $1 bills. You can have all of box C or blindly pick one bill out of either box A or box B. Which offers the greacest expected winning? (A) Box A (B) Box B (© Box C (D) Either A or B, but noc C ) All offer the same expected winning, ( a « « Questions on Topic Nine: Probability as Relative Frequency 233ae 22. Given that 52% of the U.S. population are female and 15% are older than age 65, can we conclude that (.52)(.15) = 7.896 are women older than age 652 (A) Yes, by the multiplication rule. (B) Yes, by conditional probabilities. (©) Yes, by the law of large numbers. (D) No, because the events are not independent. (E)_ No, because the events are not mutually exclusive. 234 AP Statistics Questions 23-27 refer to the following study: One thousand students at acisy high school were classified both according to GPA and whether or not they consistencly skipped classes. GPA <20 20-30 —_>3.0 em ere oo 25 5 no eee |ecira 450 | 765 | 290 255 475 270 23. What is the probability that a student has a GPA between 2.0 and 3.0? (A) .025 (B) .227 (© 450 (D) 475 (©) .506 24, What is the probability that a student has a GPA under 2.0 and has skipped many classes? (A) .080 (B) .281 (C) .285 (D) 314 ©) 727 ' 25. What is the probability that a student has 2 GPA under 2.0 or has skipped many classes? (A) .080 i (B) .281 (C) 285 (D) 314 ; © 72726. 2. 28, 2. Questions on Topic Nine: Probability as Relative Frequency ‘What isthe probabilicy that 2 student has a GPA under 2.0 given that he has skipped many classes? (a) .080 @B) 281 © 285 @) 314 ® 727 ‘Are “GPA between 2.0 and 3.0” and “skipped few classes” independent? (A) No, because .475 # 506. {(B) No, because .475 + .890. (©) No, because 450 + .475. (D) Yes, because of conditional probabilities, @) Yes, because of the product rule. ‘Mathematically speaking, casinos and life insurance companies make a profit because of (a) their understanding of sampling ertor and sources of bias. (B) their use of well-designed, well-conducted surveys and experiments. (C) their use of simulation of probability distributions. {D) the central limit theorem. the law of large numbers. Consider the following table of ages of U.S. senators: Age (yO: <40 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 >79 Number of senators: 5 30-3622 Sea ‘Whacis the probabiliey that a senator is under 70 years old given that he or she is at least 50 years old? (A) .580 (B) .624 (©) 643 (D) .892 (E) 969OY Questions 30-33 refer to the following study: Five hundred people used a home test for FITY, and then all underwent more conclusive hospital testing, The aecuray of the home test was evidenced in che following table, 236 AP Statistics sv Healy rastve TT 35 Tas | oo wees TS cas | ao a 30. What is the predictive value of the vest? That is, what is the probability that « person has HIV and tests positive? (A) .070 (B) .130 (©) 538 (D) 583 (E) 875 31. What is the false-positive race? That is, whac is the probability of testing positive given that the person does not have HIV? (A) .054 (B) .050 (©) .130 (D) 417 (E) .875 32, Whac is the sensiivity of the test? That is, what is the probability of testing positive given that the person has HIV? (A) .070 (B) .130 (C) 538 (D) 583 ©) 875 33. What is the specificiry of the test? That is, what is the probability of testing negative given that the person does not have HIV? (A) .125 (B) .583 (© 870 (D) .950 (&) .946Questions on Topic Nine: Probability as Relative Frequency 237 that 2% of a clinie’s patients are known to have cancet. A blood test \ = Se aarp foped that is postive in 989 of parints with cancer but is also posi- i five in 396 of patients who do not have cancer. Ifa person who is chosen at vandom from the clinic’ patients is given the test and it comes out positive, dohat is the probabilicy chat che person actually has cancer? (A) 02 B) 4 Os ©) 6 (&) 98 35. Sappose the probability that you will reive an A in AP Statistics is .35, the . probability thae you will receive A's in both AP Statistics and AP Biology is 19, and the probability that you wall receive an A in AP Statistics but not in ‘AP Biology is .17. Which of the following is a proper conclusion? (A) The probability that you will seceive an A in AP Biology is 36. \ (B) The probability that you didn't take AP Biology is .01. (©) The probability that you will receive an A in AP Biology but not in AP Statistics is .18. (D) The given probabilities are impossible. (&) None of the above 36. Suppose you are one of 7.5 million people who send in cheir name for a ddraving with 1 top prize of $1 million, 5 second-place prizes of $10,000, and. 20 third-place prizes of $100. Is it worth the $0.44 postage it cost you to send in your name? (A) Yes, because 9222" - 2,272,727, which is less than 7,500,000. (B) No, because your expected winnings are only $0.14. (C) Yes, because {iisigoy = 288,462, | (D) No, because 1,052,000 < 7,500,000, ; (B) Yes, because 1920 = 40,462 37. You have a choice of three investments, the first of which gives you a 10% chance of making $1 million, ocherwise you lose $25,000; the second of which gives you 2 50% chance of making $500,000, otherwise you lose $345,000; and the third of which gives you an 80% chance of making $50,000, otherwise you make only $1,000. Assuming you will go bankrupt if you don't show a profit, which option should you choose for the best chance of avoiding bankruptcy? (A) First choice | (B) Second choice | (©) Thitd choice | (D) Either the firse or the second choice (B) All the choices give an equal chance of avoiding bankruptcy.298 AP Statistics 38. 39. 40. Al 42, Can the function f(x) = “#8, for x= 1, 2, and 3, be the probability distriby. tion for some random variable? (A) Yes. (B) No, because probabilities cannot be negative (©) No, because probabilities cannot be greater than 1. (D) No, because the probabilities do not sum to 1 2) Not enough information is given to answer the question. Sixty-five percent of all divorce cases cite incompatibility as che underlying reason. If four couples file for a divorce, what is the probability that exactly ‘two will state incompatibility as the reason? (A) 104 (B) .207 (© 254 (D) 31 (BE) 423 Suppose we have a random variable X where the probability asociated with the value (Phan 63)!" for &=0,..., 10. What is the mean of X? (A) 0.37 (B) 0.63 (© 37 (D) 6.3 (E) None of the above A computer technician notes that 40% of computers fail because of the hard drive, 25% because of the monitor, 20% because of a disk drive, and 15% because of the microprocessor: Ifthe problem is not in the monitor, what is the probability thac ic is in the hard drive? (A) .150 (B) 400 (©) AIT (D) 533 ©) 650 Suppose you toss a coin ten times and it comes up heads every time. Which of the following is a true statement? (A) By the law of large numbers, the next toss is more likely to be tails chan another heads. (B) By the properties of conditional probability, the next toss is more likely to be heads given that cen tosses in a row have been heads. (©) Coins actually do have memories, and thus what comes up on the nexf toss is influenced by the past tosses. {D) The law of large numbers tells how many tosses will be necessary before the percentages of heads and tails are again in balance, (2) The probability that the next toss will again be heads is 5. al1 supply system involves three pumps, the failuse of any one of , vate ia aes) ashes the system. The probabilities of failure for each pump in a ven year ae 025, 034, and 02, respectively. Assuming the pumps operate Fudependently of each other, what isthe probability thatthe system does crash during the year? (A) Less than .05, (B) .077 © 079 : (D) .081 f © 923 of the following are true statements? 1. The histogram of a binomial distribution with p = 5 is always symmettic no matter what 7, the number of trials, is. TL, The histogram of a binomial distribution with p = .9 is skewed to the right IIL The histogram of a binomial distribution wich p= 9 is almost h symmetric if nis very large. (A) Tand Il (B) Land U1 (© Mand It (D) 1, I, and 1 (B) None of the above gives the complete set of true responses. 45. Suppose that 60% of students who take the AP Statistics exam score 4 or 5, 25M score 3, and the rest score 1 oF 2. Suppose further that 95% of those scoring 4 or 5 reccive college credit, 50% of those scoring 3 receive such credit, and 4% of those scoring 1 or 2 receive credit, Ifa student who is cho- sen at random from among those taking the exam reccives college credit, what is the probability that she received a 3 on the exam? (A) .125 ®) .178 (© 701 (D) 813 (&) 822 46, Given the probabilities P(A) = A and P(AU B) = .6, what is the probability P(B) if Aand Bare mutually exclusive? If A and Bare independent? (A) 2, 4 (B) .2, 33 (C) .33,.2 7 (D) .6, 33 (E) 6,4 re tall Questions on Topic Nine: Probability as Relative Frequency 2393 47. There ate 20 students in an AP Statistics class. Suppose all are unprepared and randomly guess on each of ten multiple-choice questions, each with a choice of five possible answers. Which of the following is one ran ofa simy. lation to estimate the probability at least one student guesses correctly on over half the questions? 240 AP Statistics (A) Assume “1” is the correct answer and “2, 3, 4, 5” are incorrect answers, Randomly pick 200 numbers between 1 and 5. Arrange the numbers into 20 groups of 10 each, each group corresponding to one of the scu- dents. For each student, count how many correct (“I”) answers there are, Record whether at least one student has six or more correct (B) Assume “2” is the correct answer and “lI, 3, 4, 5” are incorrece answers, Assign the numbers 1-20 to the students. Randomly choose 200 num. bers between 1 and 20. For each number chosen, randomly pick a number berween 1 and 5. Record how many correct (*2") answers there are, divide by 20, and record whether this quotient is atleast six. (C) Assume “3” is the correct answer and “1, 2, 4, 5” are incorrect answers. Assign the numbers 1-10 to the questions. Randomly choose 200 numbers beoween 1 and 10. For each number chosen, randomly pick a umber between 1 and 5. Record how many correct (“3”) answers there ate, divide by 20, and record whether this quotient is at least six. (D) Assume “4? is the correct answer and “1, 2, 3, 5” are incorrect answers. Randomly choose 200 numbers between Land 5. Record how many correct (“1”) answers there are, divide by 20, and record whether this quotient is at least six. (B) Assume “5” is the correct answer and “I, 2, 3, 4” are incorrect answers. Randomly pick 20 numbers between 1 and 5. Do chis 10 times, and for each group of 20 note how many correct ("5®) answers there are Record whether at least one group has over half correct answers.Questions on Topic Nine: Probability as Relative Frequency 241 Free-Response Questions nections: You must show all work and indicate the methods you use. You will Pe graded on the correctness of your methods and on the accuracy of your inal oe seven Open-Ended Questions 1. A manufacturer is considering two options for a quality control check at the end of a production line: Option A: IFat least five of six randomly picked articles mect all specifications, the day’s production is approved. Option Br [fac least ten of twelve randomly picked articles meet all specifica- tions, the day’s production is approved. Ifyou are a buyer wanting the most assurance that a day’ production will not be accepted if there were only 75% of the articles meeting all specifications, which option would you request the manufacturer to use? Give statistical jus- tification, A. sample of applicants for a management position yields the following num- bers wich regard to age and experience: Years of experience 05 610 P10 Loss than 50 years old 80 125 20 ‘More than 50 yours old 10 5 50 @) What is the probability hac an applicant is less than 50 years old? Has ‘more than 10 years’ experience? Is more than 50 years old and has five or fewer years’ experience? (6) What is the probability that an applicant is less chan 50 years old given that she has between 6 and 10 years’ experience? (0) Are the two events “less than 50 years old” and “more than 10 years’ expe- rience” independent events? How about the two events “more than 50 years old” and “between 6 and 10 years’ experience”? Expl Suppose USAir accounts for 20% of all U.S. domestic flights. As of mid-1994, USAir was involved in four of the previous seven major disasters. “That's enough to begin getting suspicious but not enough co hang them,” said Dr. Brad Efion in The New York Times (September 11, 1994, Sec. 4, p. 4). Using a binomial distribution, comment on Dr, Efton’s remark.244° AP Statistics Answer Key 9. 10. SN AVR Ne EB i,D 2.E 3A 41D E 122B 2D 32E 42£E B BB 23.D 33.E 43. B A 14D 4A 34B 44. 3B Bo15.B 25. C 35.D 45. BL Bo 16D 26 E 36.B 46. B D 177E 27. A 37.C 47.8 D BB 2E 384A Cc WA 29D 39D E 2D 302A 40.€ Answers Explained Multiple-Choice 10, L (E) There is no reason to assume that the probability of getting a 5 is the same as that of not getting a 5. . (E) The probability that doth events will occur is the product of their separace probabilities only ifthe events are independent, that is, only if the chance that fone event will happen is not influenced by whether or not the second event happens. In this case the probability of different surgeries failing are probably closely related. (B) P(ist die is 4)P 2nd die is 6) + P(Ist die is 6)P(2nd die is 4) + P(Ist dic is 5} POnd dic is 5) . (A) 10(.15)°(.85)° = .138 or binompdf(5, .15, 2) = .138 (B) The probability of the nexe child being a girl is independent of the gen- der of the previous children, - (BY 1 — (.99975)' = 0247 (D) .001(1,500,000) = 1500 @) x= AX) = ¥ xP(x) = 06.999) + 25, 000.001) = 25 = D(x) P(x) = Y0-25)?(.999) + (25,000 —25)"(.001 [Or on the 1-84, put returns and probabilities into two lises and run i-Var Stats i, L2] (© {80 =.25 are honors students, and #$5 = .3 prefer basketball. Becaust of independence, sheir intersection is (.25)(.3) = .075 of the students, and 075(6000) = 450. 90.17 B) (9)"'+ 36 9)*(A) =.972 linne “2 19, 20, 21 2, . (0) - ) 5(4) +100(8 Questions on Topic Nine: Probability as Relative Frequency 245 P(Famine + plague) _.15 ) P( imine] plague) Pipe) 395 (g) If Band Fare independent, then PUEM F) = problem, (4)(35) #3. (@) Because Aand Hare independent, we have P(A B) = P(A PCB), and thus PAU B) = .2-+ 1 (2)(1) = 28 5,992, 01: 9,664.99 (B) AX) = be = Exp, = 700(.05) + 5406.25) + 26067) = 352 E}P(F); however, in this 579 (D) The probability of throwing heads is 5. By the law of large numbers, the tore times you fip the coin, the more the relative frequency tends to become loser to this probability, With fewer tosses there is a greater chance of wide swings in the relative Frequency. (8) P(diamond on 2nd pick) = 1/4; howeves, ‘P(diamond on 2nd pick | heart on first pick) = 13/51 ‘Plblack on 2nd pick) = 1/25 however, P(black on 2nd pick | red on Ist pick) = 26/51 Place on 2nd pick) = 1/135 however, Place on 2nd pick | ace on Ist pick) 2 BSL ‘Plowo kings) = (1/13)(3/51}s however, P(owo kings | two aces) = 0 P(black on 2nd pick) = 1/2 and P(black on 2nd pick | two aces) = 6/12 3. (B) P(two kings) = (1/13)(1/13); however, P(two kings | two aces) = 0 P(king on 2nd pick) = 1/13, and P{king on 2nd pick | ace on Ist pick) =u3 ‘Plat least one king) = 1 ~ (12/13) Plat least one king | at least one ace) [(1/13)(1/13) + (1/13)(1/13)|/[25/169] = 2/25 Plexactly one king) = (1/13)(12/13) + (12/13)(1/13) = 24/169; however, Plexactly one king | exactly one ace) = (2/169)/(24/169)-= 1/12 P(ao kings) = (12/13)?; however, P(no kings | no aces) = (11/12)? (A) AUX) = fe = Exp; = 21,000(.8) + 35,000(.2) = 23,800 (D) 1000(.2) + 5000(.05) = 450, and 800 — 450 = 350. ) (D) PEER F) = PCE)PCF) only if the events are independent. In this case, women live longer than men and so the events are not independent. 24, and 5( $92) + 100(539) = 24246 AP Statistics For questions 23-27, we first sum the rows and columns: ora 2020-30 >30 Many skipped ces 80 25 s | 10 Few skipped pats 175 | 450 | 265 | 850 255 4782701000 23, (D) 25852 =.475 24, (A) 885 =.080 (probability of an intersection) 25. (C) SESS — 285 (probability of a union) 26. (©) aIsis =-727 (conditional probability) 27. (A) P(2.0- 3.0 GPA) = © = 475; however, (2.0 — 3.0 GPA few skips) = 2 506. If independent, these would have been equal. 28. (E) While the outcome of any single play on a roulette wheel or the age at death of any particular person is uncertain, the law of large numbers gives that the relative frequencies of specific outcomes in the long run tend to become closer to numbers called probal cancer —2 positive (cancor~ peste) = 021 9) =.0196 02, test test 03 necancer — postive. (no cancer posite) = (9603) = 0296 fost test _P (positive test) = P (cancer © positive test) + P (no cancer ™ positive test) P(cancer A positive test) P(positive test) = 0196 0490 =A (cancer| positive test (D) The probability that you will receive an A in AP Statistics but not in AP Biology must be 35 ~.19 = .16, not 17. (B) Your expected winnings are only 1 5 20 |__(1,000,000) + ——2——-(10, 000) + ——“——-(100) = 0.14 ( ) 7-500, 000' ) 7,500,000! ) 7,500,000 (© Hen though the first wo choices have a higher expected value than the third choice, the third choice gives a 100% chance of avoiding bankruptcy. (A) The probabilities 2, 4, and 2 are all nonnegative, and they sur to 1 (D) 6(.65)(.35) = .311 of binompdf(4, .65, 2) = .311 . (C) This is a binomial with m= 10 and p = .37, and so the mean is np = 10(37) = 3.7. |. (D) aproers = 5533 (B) Coins have no memory, and so the probability that the next toss will be heads is 5 and the probability that ie will be tails is .5. The law of large num- bers says that as the number of tosses becomes larger, the percentage of heads tends to become closer to 5. (B) The probabilites of each pump not failing are 1 ~ .025 = .975, 1 ~ 034 = 966, and 1 — .02 = .98, respectively. The probability of none failing is (.975)(,966)(.98) = .923, and so the probability of at least one failing is 1~ 923 = 077. (B) If p>, che more likely numbers of successes are to the right and the lower numbers of successes have small probabilities, and so the histogram is skewed to the left. No matter what p is, if m is sufficiently large, the histogram will look almost symmetric. Questions on Topic Nine: Probability as Relative Frequency 247248 AP Statistics 45. B) 95. 60 41S crodit P(A 0F 57 credit = (6011.95) = 57 Bg SO it 099 ert = 2514.50) = 125 18 Vor2 4 credit oF 2 cre = (.15).04) = 006 P (credit) = 57 + 125 + 006 = .701 P(3Ocredit) 4195 (3 |e a in) Io =.178 46. (B) If A and B are mutually exclusive, P(A B) = 0. Thus 6 = 4 + P(B)- 0, and so P(B) = 2. If Aand Bare independent, then P(A B) = P(A)P(B) Thus 6 = 4 + P(B) — 4P(B), and so P(B) = + 47. (A) For each of the 20 scudents, we must generate an answer to each of the 10 questions, and record if any student has at least 6 out of 10 correct answers. Free-Response 1. With Option A, Sf in reality only 75% of the articles meet all specifications, the probability of rejecting the day’s production is P(rejection) = 1 - Placceptance) = -[(SJeranscast]- a [On the TI-84, binomed#(6,.75,4) = .466] With Option B, if in reality only 75% of the articles meet all specifications the probability of rejecting the day's production is: P(tejection) = 1 ~ Pfacceptance) = 2 10¢95)2 4, { 12 1 5)2 1-|(3Jes (25) (Res (25) +75) 609 [On the TL-84, binomedf (12,.75,9) = .609) For the greatest probability of rejecting the day’s production if only 75% of the articles meet all specifications, the buyer should request the manufacturer (0 use Option B with a probability of rejection of .609 as opposed to Option A with a probability of rejection of only .466.