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Article history: This paper deals with a portfolio optimization problem with uncertain returns. Here, the returns of risky
Received 14 December 2020 assets are regarded as uncertain variables which are estimated by experienced experts. First, a mean-
Revised 9 February 2021
variance-entropy model for uncertain portfolio optimization problem is presented by taking into account
Accepted 1 March 2021
four criteria viz., return, risk, liquidity and diversification degree of portfolio. In our model, the invest-
Available online 11 March 2021
ment return is quantified by uncertain expected value, the investment risk is characterized by uncertain
Keywords: variance and entropy is used to measure the diversification degree of portfolio. Moreover, different from
Uncertain variable the previous bi-objective optimization model, our model achieves both the maximum return and the min-
Portfolio optimization imum risk in a single objective form by introducing a risk aversion factor and the dimensional influence
Return rate caused by different units is eliminated by normalization method. Then, two auxiliary portfolio selection
Diversification models are transformed into different equivalent deterministic models. Finally, a numerical simulation is
Liquidity
given to verify the effectiveness and practicality of our model.
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110842
0960-0779/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
B. Li and R. Zhang Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 146 (2021) 110842
major contributions of this paper are: Firstly, diversification and Theorem 4 (Liu [27]). Assume ξ1 , ξ2 , . . . , ξn are independent
liquidity are both studied in uncertain environment. Secondly, we uncertain variables with regular uncertainty distributions 1 ,
introduce a risk aversion factor to transform the bi-objective opti- 2 , . . . , n , respectively. If f (ξ1 , ξ2 , . . . ξn ) is strictly increasing with
mization model into a single objective optimization model and the respect to ξ1 , ξ2 , . . . , ξn and strictly decreasing with respect to
dimensional influence caused by different units is eliminated by ξm+1 , ξm+2 , . . . , ξn , then ξ = f (ξ1 , ξ2 , . . . , ξn )
normalization method. The rest of this paper is organized as fol-
1
lows. In Section 2, we review some basic concepts in uncertainty E[ξ ] = 1 (α ), . . . , m (α ), m+1 (1 − α ), . . . , n (1 − α ))d α .
f (−1 −1 −1 −1
theory. A mean-variance-entropy model for uncertain portfolio op- 0
timization problem is established in Section 3. In Section 4, two
Theorem 5 (Liu [27]). Let ξ be an uncertain variable with regular
auxiliary portfolio selection models are transformed into different
uncertainty distribution , then
equivalent deterministic models. In Section 5, a numerical simula-
tion is carried out to show the effectiveness and practicality of our 1
where k are arbitrarily chosen events from Lk for k = 1, 2, . . . , As we know, variance is widely used as a risk measure. Here, the
respectively. variance of portfolio x can be written as:
An uncertain variable is a function ξ from an uncertainty space V [ ξ1 x 1 + ξ2 x 2 + ξ3 x 3 + . . . + ξ n x n ] . (3.2)
( , L, M ) to the set of real numbers such that for any Borel set of
real numbers, the set {ξ ∈ B} = {γ ∈ | ξ (γ ) ∈ B} is an event. In order to make the model more close to reality, liquidity
and diversification are added to our uncertain portfolio selection
Definition 1 (Liu [27]). An uncertain variable is called zigzag if it model. Liquidity is the ability to convert investment into cash, and
has a zigzag uncertainty distribution the asset liquidity may be reflected by turnover rate [40], which
⎧ refers to the frequency of stock trading in the market within a
⎪
⎨ 0, if x < a
certain period of time. The investor usually prefer the assets with
( x − a )/2 ( b − a ), if a ≤ x < b
(x ) = good liquidity. It is acknowledged that turnover rates are hard to
⎪
⎩ ( x + c − 2b)/2(c − b), if b ≤ x < c
forecast accurately. Then we use uncertain variables to portray the
1, if x ≥ c,
turnover rates, which can be written as follows:
denoted by Z (a, b, c ), where a, b, c are real numbers with a < b <
n
c. E[ γi xi ] ≥ κ , (3.3)
i=1
Theorem 1 (Liu [27]). Let ξ and η be independent uncertain vari-
ables with finite expected values. Then for any real numbers a and b, where γi denotes the turnover rate of the ith asset and κ repre-
we have sents the lower bound of turnover rate. Because investment di-
versification can attain the decentralized investment, we employ
E[aξ + bη] = aE[ξ ] + bE[η]. (2.1) it to reduce investment risk. Here, entropy is used to describe the
diversification of investment portfolio, which can be expressed as
Theorem 2. (Liu [27]) Let ξ and η be independent uncertain vari-
follows:
ables with regular uncertainty distributions and , respectively.
Assume there exist two real numbers a and b such that
n
En = − xi ln(xi + ε ) ≥ β , (3.4)
−1 (α ) = a −1
(α ) + b. i=1
for all α ∈ (0, 1 ). Show that where β is the lower bound of diversification, ε is a sufficiently
small positive number.
V [ξ + η ] = V [ξ ] + V [η]. (2.2) Obviously, investment return maximization and risk minimiza-
tion is a bi-objective optimization problem. By introducing a
Theorem 3 (Liu [27]). Let ξ be an uncertain variable with uncer-
weighting factor λ, it can be transformed into a single objective
tainty distribution and finite expected value e . Then
optimization model. However, it can be followed by certain short-
1 coming that the different units of mean and variance can lead to
V [ξ ] = (−1 (α ) − e )2 dα . dimensional influence. In order to acquire a better accuracy, the
0
2
B. Li and R. Zhang Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 146 (2021) 110842
In this model, Emax represents the maximum portfolio return with- E[x1 ξ1 + x2 ξ2 + . . . + xn ξn ] = x1 E[ξ1 ] + x2 E[ξ2 ] + . . . + xn E[ξn ].
out considering investment risk and Vmin is employed as the min-
and
imum portfolio risk without considering investment return. For
obtaining the optimal investment proportion of model (3.5), we V [ x 1 ξ1 + x 2 ξ2 + . . . + x n ξn ]
should first calculate Emax and Vmin under the same constraints in
= x1 V [ ξ1 ] + x 2 V [ ξ2 ] + x 3 V [ ξ3 ] + . . . + x n V [ξn ].
two auxiliary models, which are established as follows:
Since the return rate of the ith asset is a normal uncertain vari-
max E[ξ1 x1 + ξ2 x2 + . . . + ξn xn ] (3.6)
able ξi ∼ N (μi , σi ), i = 1, 2, . . . , n, the objective functions (3.6) and
n
(3.7) can be converted into the following forms:
s.t. E[ γi xi ] ≥ κ ,
i=1 max x1 μ1 + x2 μ2 + . . . + xn μn
n
and
− xi ln(xi + ε ) ≥ β ,
i=1 min(x1 σ1 + x2 σ2 + . . . + xn σn )2 .
n
The theorem is proved.
xi = 1,
i=1 Theorem 7. Suppose the return rate of the ith asset is a zigzag
xi ≥ 0, i = 1, 2, . . . , n. uncertain variable ξi ∼ Z (ai , bi , ci ), i = 1, 2, . . . , n., then the model
(3.6) can be transformed into the following form:
and
n
ai + 2 bi + ci
min V [ξ1 x1 + ξ2 x2 + . . . + ξn xn ] (3.7) max (4.3)
4
n i=1
s.t. E[ γi xi ] ≥ κ ,
n
i=1 s.t. E[ γi xi ] ≥ κ ,
n i=1
− xi ln(xi + ε ) ≥ β ,
n
i=1 − xi ln(xi + ε ) ≥ β ,
n i=1
xi = 1,
n
i=1 xi = 1,
xi ≥ 0, i = 1, 2, . . . , n. i=1
xi ≥ 0, i = 1, 2, . . . , n.
4. Model transformation
The model (3.7) can be transformed into the following form:
n
In order to solve the model (3.5), we will transform two auxil- 3(bi − ai )2 + 7(ci − bi )2 + 6(bi − ai )(ci − bi )
iary uncertain optimization models (3.6) and (3.7) into two equiv- min
96
alent models. i=1
[2bi − ci − ai )+ ]3 [ ( ai + ci − 2 bi )+ ]3 2
Theorem 6. Suppose the return rate of ith asset is a normal uncertain + − xi (4.4)
variable ξi ∼ N (μi , σi ), i = 1, 2, . . . , n. the model (3.6) can be trans-
384(bi − ai ) 384(ci − bi )
formed into the following form:
n
s.t. E[ γi xi ] ≥ κ ,
max x 1 μ1 + x 2 μ2 + . . . + x n μn (4.1) i=1
n
n
s.t. E[ γi xi ] ≥ κ , − xi ln(xi + ε ) ≥ β ,
i=1 i=1
n
n
− xi ln(xi + ε ) ≥ β , xi = 1,
i=1 i=1
3
B. Li and R. Zhang Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 146 (2021) 110842
Table 1
Distributions of normal uncertain return rates.
Table 2
Turnover rates of 10 assets.
xi ≥ 0, i = 1, 2, . . . , n.
Proof. Since ξi = (ai , bi , ci ) is a zigzag uncertain variable, we have
n
n
n
n
ξi x i = xi ai , xi bi , xi ci ,
i=1 i=1 i=1 i=1
[2bi − ci − ai )+ ]3 [ ( ai + ci − 2 bi )+ ]3 2
Fig. 5.2. Fmincon’s iterative convergence graph of Vmin .
+ − xi .
384(bi − ai ) 384(ci − bi )
The theorem is proved.
we obtain Emax =0.0357 and Vmin =0.00125. Simultaneously, the it-
5. Numerical simulation erative convergence graphs of Emax and Vmin are shown in Figs. 5.1
and 5.2. It can be found that the fmincon algorithm converges very
In this section, a numerical simulation is carried out to illus- fast. Moreover, these two iterations do not stop until the number
trate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed uncertain of iterations reaches 39 and 42, which indicates that the fmincon
model, and to show the effect of the diversification and liquid- algorithm is an effective approach to solve the two proposed mod-
ity on portfolio selection. The following results are programmed in els. Then we fix the value of β as 1.5 and adopt five different val-
Matlab 2016a and fmincon algorithm is used. ues of λ to describe different investor preferences, like risk evader,
Suppose that the turnover rate of the ith asset is an uncertain risk enthusiast and risk rational person. The optimal portfolios un-
variable γi = (hi , li , mi , ni ) with the following uncertainty distribu- der five different values of λ are shown in Table 3. And, the cor-
tion responding objective function value (OFV), expected return E (x∗ )
⎧ and variance V (x∗ ) are also calculated. We know that the larger
⎪ 0, if x < hi
⎪ the value of λ, the lower the investor’s tolerance of investment risk
⎨ ( x − hi ) /2 ( li − hi ) ,
if hi ≤ x < li
and the lower the expectation of portfolio return, which is consis-
i (x ) = 1/2, if li ≤ x < mi (5.1)
⎪
⎪
tent with the results in Table 3.
⎩1/2 + (x − mi )/2(ni − mi ), if mi ≤ x < ni
By changing the lower bound β of diversification under λ = 0.5,
1, if x ≥ ni ,
we can analysis the influence of portfolio diversification degree on
where hi , li , mi , ni are real numbers with hi < li < mi < ni . Ob- the model (3.5). It is known that β is a parameter in the constraint
viously, the turnover rate of portfolio x = (x1 , x2 , . . . , xn ) can of diversification and the values of Emax and Vmin will change un-
n n
be described as i=1 γi xi = i=1 xi (hi , li , mi , ni ). In
addition, der different β . Then it brings about a problem that the value of
the asset liquidity can be measured by L(xi ) = E[ ni=1 γi xi ] = objective function (3.5) is hard to be estimated. For the sake of
E[ ni=1 xi (hi , li , mi , ni )] = ni=1 (hi , li , mi , ni )/4. Assume that asset solving this problem, we should unify the values of Emax and Vmin .
returns are normal uncertain variables. The data is obtained According to Table 4, we acquire the values are Emax = 0.030322
through the paper Huang [43]. The distributions of asset returns and Vmin = 0.001258, respectively. In Table 4, it can be seen that
and turnover rates are shown in Tables 1 and 2, respectively. the objective function value (OFV) possesses an upward trend as
The lower bound of turnover rate and diversification are set as the value of β increases, which can be interpreted as a larger value
κ =0.025 and β =1.5, respectively. According to Theorems 6 and 7, of β causes a stricter constraint condition. So it will be more dif-
4
B. Li and R. Zhang Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 146 (2021) 110842
Table 3
The optimal investment proportions for different λ under β = 1.5.
Table 4
The optimal investment proportions for different β under λ = 0.5.
ficult to obtained the optimal value of the objective function. That Acknowledgment
is, the entropy does affect the optimal investment proportions.
This work is supported by the Natural Science Foundation of
Jiangsu Province (No. BK20190787).
6. Conclusion
5
B. Li and R. Zhang Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 146 (2021) 110842
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