Module 5.3.

Epidemiological Models and Philippine Health Situation

Infectious Disease Causation Models

1. Epidemiologic triad or triangle

the traditional model for infectious disease. The triad consists of an external agent, a
susceptible host, and an environment that brings the host and agent together. In this model, disease
results from the interaction between the agent and the susceptible host in an environment that
supports transmission of the agent from a source to that host.

Agent, host, and environmental factors interrelate in a variety of complex ways to produce
disease. Different diseases require different balances and interactions of these three components.
Development of appropriate, practical, and effective public health measures to control or prevent
disease usually requires assessment of all three components and their interactions.

Figure1. The epidemiological Triad

 Figure 2. Imbalances in Triad Model

2. The wheel model

This model represents the host (man) as the focus, who has genetic make-up as its core, and is
surrounded by the four environmental elements. The relative sizes of the wheel components vary from
one disease to the other. In contrast to the previous model, the wheel model distinguishes the host
from the environmental factors, thus more useful for epidemiologic analysis.

Figure 3. Wheel Model

3. The web or network of causation model

This web of causation explores multiple causative factors, giving each an equal
prominence in identifying determinants and relevant interventions. The model implies that
disease is developed as a result of "chains" of causation. This model implies that cutting the chains
at different points would interrupt the disease development, even without complete
understanding of causal mechanisms.
 Figure 4. Web Causation Model

Epidemiological Level of disease

The amount of a particular disease that is usually present in a community is referred to
as the baseline or endemic level of the disease.
▪ Sporadic
• refers to a disease that occurs infrequently and irregularly.
▪ Endemic
• refers to the constant presence and/or usual prevalence of a disease or
infectious agent in a population within a geographic area.
▪ Hyperendemic
• refers to persistent, high levels of disease occurrence.
▪ Epidemic
• refers to an increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease
above what is normally expected in that population in that area. Outbreak
carries the same definition of epidemic but is often used for a more limited
geographic area.
• Factors that triggers epidemic
o A recent increase in amount or virulence of the agent,
o The recent introduction of the agent into a setting where it has not
been before,
o An enhanced mode of transmission so that more susceptible
persons are exposed,
 o A change in the susceptibility of the host response to the agent,
and/or
o Factors that increase host exposure or involve introduction through
new portals of entry
▪ Cluster
•refers to an aggregation of cases grouped in place and time that are
suspected to be greater than the number expected, even though the
expected number may not be known.
▪ Pandemic
• refers to an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents,
usually affecting a large number of people.

Quiz:
For each of the following situations, identify whether it reflects:

A. Sporadic disease
B. Endemic disease
C. Hyperendemic disease
D. Pandemic disease
E. Epidemic disease

1. _ 22 cases of legionellosis occurred within 3 weeks among residents of a particular

neighborhood (usually 0 or 1 per year)
2. _ Average annual incidence was 364 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis per 100,000 population
in one area, compared with national average of 134 cases per 100,000 population
3. _ Over 20 million people worldwide died from influenza in 1918–1919
4. _ Single case of histoplasmosis was diagnosed in a community
5. _ About 60 cases of gonorrhea are usually reported in this region per week, slightly less than
the national average

1. B
2. B
3. A
4. A
5. C
6. A
LEADING CAUSES OF DEATH – TIME SERIES WITH NUMBER

Cause of Death 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Ischaemic heart diseases 65,378 65,551 68,572 74,134 84,120

Neoplasms 53,601 55,588 58,715 60,470 64,125

Cerebrovascular diseases 54,578 52,894 58,310 56,938 59,774

Pneumonia 53,101 53,689 49,595 57,809 57,210

Diabetes Mellitus 27,064 31,539 34,050 33,295 30,932

Hypertensive diseases 29,067 34,902 34,506 33,452 26,471

Chronic lower respiratory infections 23,867 24,686 23,760 24,365 24,818

Respiratory Tuberculosis 22,013 23,157 24,644 24,462 22,523

Other heart diseases 33,027 34,141 31,729 28,641 22,134

Remainder of the diseases of the genitourinary

16,785 17,220 18,061 19,759 15,717
system
Leading causes of morbidity in the Philippines in 2017,
(in 1,000s)

Acute upper respiratory infection 2 382.12

Hypenension

Acute lower respi ratory tract infection

and pneumonia

Urinary tract infection

Bronchiti s

Influenza

Acute watery diarrhea

Asthma all forms

TB Respiratory

Acute ferbrille illness

0 500 I 000 I 500 2 000 2 500 3 000