UBS-Credit Suisse Merger White Paper

Everything about merger discussions and its impact on stakeholders

March 2023

UBS-Credit Suisse Merger

 UBS-Credit Suisse Merger on social media:
conversations & impact

In this report, we will

• Assess the general traction and attitude towards the merger
• Identify the primary concern of netizens online
• Evaluate the impact of the merger from the subsequent standpoints:
○ Is Singapore a safe place for managing wealth?
○ Which banks in Singapore are the most reliable for wealth
management?
○ Does the merger affect people's preferences and beliefs about investing
in physical or digital assets?
○ Does the merger impact concerns over inflation and recession?
○ What is the current discussion on governance concerning the merger?

UBS-Credit Suisse Merger

What are the general traction and attitude towards the merger?
There were speculations about the further crisis in the banking and financial sector and there was interest in Singapore Financial Institutions'
exposure to Credit Suisse bonds.
Pulsar Word Cloud By Topics and Sentiment
The Credit Suisse crisis was anticipated to cause a ripple effect
across the global banking industry, leading to concerns about the
potential collapse of other financial institutions [1][2][3].
UBS-Credit Suisse Merger
Pulsar Treemaps of Keywords on Facebook and Forums
Questions and speculations arose about the potential impact on Temasek
Holdings, GIC, and other major Singapore investment companies, as the
UBS-Credit Suisse merger deal would result in the write-down of Credit Suisse's
Additional Tier 1 (AT1) debt to zero, leaving its bondholders with nothing
[1][2][3][4][5].
What are the general traction and attitude towards the merger?
Discussions centered on the negative perception of Temasek Holdings' bailout practices, which were compared to the Swiss government-Credit
Suisse incident. There were also talks about the potential layoffs at Credit Suisse and criticisms about the government's perceived preferential
treatment towards foreign talents.

Social media users are questioning the appropriateness of
government-owned entities using public funds for corporate bailouts,
particularly in light of Temasek Holdings' repeated rescues of
Singaporean businesses. Comparisons are being made to the Swiss
government's approach to saving Credit Suisse through a merger with
UBS, sparking discussions around differing strategies for handling
troubled companies [1][2][3].
The UBS-Credit Suisse merger was predicted to affect the job market in Singapore [1][2][3].
● Discussions revolved around the breakdown of the estimated 3,500 affected Credit
Suisse employees – whether they are local or foreign talent were observed [1][2][3].
Many believed that the majority of Credit Suisse's workforce in Singapore are foreign talents,
and thus, they would be the ones most affected by the potential job cuts [1][2][3].
● Netizens questioned the response of MAS in addressing the merger's impact on the
job market, implying that the government favours foreign employees [1][2][3][4].

UBS-Credit Suisse Merger

What is the primary concern of netizens online?
Netizens are concerned about potential job cuts resulting from the merger impact on the Singapore job market.
Key Events
• Facebook: The Straits Times article
on MAS’ announcement about the
possible effects of the UBS-Credit
Suisse merger on employment
prompted online discussions [1].
• Forum: HardwareZone Forum users
created multiple threads discussing
the possibility of Credit Suisse's
layoffs in Singapore after The Straits
Times published an article on the
topic [1][2].
UBS-Credit Suisse Merger
23 Mar: Article posted on
Facebook about MAS’s
announcement regarding the
potential impact on Credit
Suisse employees in Singapore
[1].
Negative/Mixed Online Sentiment Observed Top Channels
• Netizens' interest was focused on the local impact and the number of people • HardwareZone Forum [1].
who would be affected [1][2][3]. • The Straits Times Facebook [1].
• There was a perception that the impact on locals would be less compared to
foreign employees, leading to some indifference among netizens [1][2][3][4].
• Some individuals were not concerned about the possibility of Credit Suisse
employees being laid off, stating that the banking industry in Singapore has
high salaries and dominates the economy [1][2][3][4].
• A few criticised MAS for showing favouritism towards foreign employees
who constitute a significant portion of Credit Suisse's workforce in Singapore
[1][2][3].
• Some individuals expressed worry over the potential job cuts that may
happen after the UBS-Credit Suisse merger is finalised [1].
Is Singapore a safe place for managing wealth?
Both Switzerland and the United States have seen a decline in their reputation in the financial industry, while Singapore remains stable and
relatively unaffected by the UBS-Credit Suisse merger.

According to online users' comments on social media, there is a belief that
the UBS-Credit Suisse merger was caused by the failure of Silicon Valley
Bank [1][2].
Both Switzerland and the United States have lost their reputation as global
financial powerhouses [1][2][3].
According to comments made by netizens on social media, media reports
have portrayed Singapore's financial centre as secure and unaffected
during the financial crisis in contrast to other countries [1].
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has reported that the private
and investment banking operations in Singapore were mostly unaffected and
continued as usual, despite the recent announcement of the UBS-Credit
Suisse merger [1][2][3].
According to netizens on social media, there was skepticism about the MAS'
announcements, and they questioned whether the financial crisis would
indeed have no impact on Singapore [1][2][3].

UBS-Credit Suisse Merger

Is Singapore a safe place for managing wealth?
There was speculation about whether Singapore could become the new world leader in wealth management, overtaking Switzerland.

• According to an article, Singapore's financial centre is growing rapidly and has the potential to overtake Switzerland and become the world's
leading manager of wealth [1][2].

• However, according to netizens on social media, there was doubt regarding this speculation, and they expressed the opinion that Singapore
lacks the necessary capability and stability to handle the world's wealth [1][2][3].

UBS-Credit Suisse Merger

Which banks in Singapore are the most reliable for wealth management?
Discussions centered on the safety and stability of the local banks, as well as the potential impact of the UBS-Credit Suisse merger on these
banks.

The market's perception of the safety of the three local banks was mixed after their share DBS, OCBC, and UOB's claim of having minimal exposure to Credit
price declined. Suisse was met with skepticism.

● The decline in market share price of DBS, OCBC, and UOB [1][2] raised concerns
about the safety of depositing money in the local banks [1][2].
● There were concerns that the local banks could face a similar decline as global
banks, such as Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank, which recently experienced a
downturn [1][2].
● The local banks were deemed to be lacking transparency,
following the news about the drop in their market share price -
which seemed to contradict their statement [1][2][3].
● Similarly, the lack of trust in DBS was due to doubts about their
management in general [1][2].

● However, some confidence persisted regarding the stability and safety of local
banks, which was supported by their diversified lender and depositor portfolios
[1][2].

UBS-Credit Suisse Merger

Which banks in Singapore are the most reliable for wealth management?
DBS was commended for its stability, but did not secure the deal with Credit Suisse.

Among the local banks, DBS received several comments about its safety and resilience, and a missed deal with Credit Suisse.

● DBS was characterised as one of the safest banks in Asia and the largest bank in Singapore [1][2][3][4].

● Additionally, it was suggested that DBS missed out on an opportunity with the UBS-Credit Suisse merger, though most of these comments were sarcastic
in nature [1][2][3].

UBS-Credit Suisse Merger

Does the merger affect people's preferences and beliefs about investing in
physical or digital assets?
Investors and the public are moving towards gold as a safe haven amidst the financial crisis, perceiving it as more stable than the perceived
riskiness of cryptocurrencies.

Investors' beliefs and attitudes towards their choice of assets have shifted, with Netizens are recommending gold as a safe investment alternative to
reports indicating a turn towards the safety of gold reserves during the financial crisis banks, given the uncertainty in the financial and banking sector, citing its
[1]. reputation as a longstanding safe investment [1][2].

The value of gold has increased, and it has rebounded as a commodity and asset
[1][2].
With uncertainty in the financial and banking sectors, netizens have started
recommending gold as an investment [1][2][3].
The public still sees cryptocurrency as a risky and hazardous investment
[1]. Despite the perceived risks, some people believe that Bitcoin has
actually benefited from the banking crisis and is therefore a favourable
investment option [1][2].

UBS-Credit Suisse Merger

Does the merger affect people's preferences and beliefs about investing in
physical or digital assets?
There are varying opinions on how the UBS-Credit Suisse merger will affect the perception of cryptocurrency.

Pulsar Keywords Word Cloud by Sentiment

The keywords “crypto” and “collapse” were led by the evident anxiety among netizens regarding the stability or potential collapse of cryptocurrency amidst the
UBS-Credit Suisse Merger [1][2].

However, some netizens pointed out that the financial crisis resulting from the UBS-Credit Suisse merger highlighted the risks associated with any form of
investment, be it banks or cryptocurrency [1][2].

Some netizens still express a preference for cryptocurrency, suggesting investment in options like Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional banking [1][2].

UBS-Credit Suisse Merger

Does the merger impact concerns over inflation and recession?
Netizens had a generally pessimistic perception towards the likelihood of a global recession, with only a minority holding an optimistic view. They
demonstrated an understanding of the implications of the Credit Suisse banking crisis on inflation and its potential international effects.

Pulsar Keywords Word Cloud (Negative Sentiment)

The merger sparked concerns about a possible global recession [1][2][3]. Netizens were knowledgeable about the potential impact of Credit Suisse's
loan from the Swiss central bank on inflation, and its potential ripple effects on
Amidst the banking crisis, there were doubts about Singapore's economic the international community [1][2][3][4].
stability [1], and concerns about the potential layoffs of Credit Suisse
employees in Singapore [1][2]. Some netizens believed that the banking crisis and inflation were still
interconnected and unresolved, causing concern [1][2].
Some expressed optimism that there may not be a recession, as the
banking crisis had already been resolved and local banks remained stable
[1][2].

UBS-Credit Suisse Merger

What is the current discussion on governance concerning the merger?
The news of UBS seeking funding from the Swiss Government sparked discussions, while Credit Suisse's banking crisis was attributed to
mismanagement.

UBS requested a substantial amount of funding from the Swiss government for the Netizens attributed the Credit Suisse banking crisis to poor
purpose of the UBS-Credit Suisse merger [1][2][3]. management decisions made by the company [1][2][3].

Netizens criticised the government's involvement in the UBS-Credit Suisse merger and Netizens pointed out that Credit Suisse's poor risk management
noted that banks often take significant risks with the expectation that the government will could potentially trigger a ripple effect that could affect other
bail them out if needed [1][2]. poorly managed banks in the future [1].

UBS-Credit Suisse Merger

These insights are brought to you by our insights team
The winners of the most AMEC awards across APAC

Prashant Saxena Arun Elangovan Jenna Wang Hidahyu Mustaffa Gaylyn Brucal Abelle Charisse
Head of Insights, Asia Regional Advanced Associate Insights Insights Manager, Senior Insights Analyst, V. Aquino
Analytics Manager, Asia Director, Singapore Singapore Singapore Senior Insights
Analyst,
Singapore

UBS-Credit Suisse Merger

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UBS-Credit Suisse Merger