You are on page 1of 33
TNABA 6 Texnonorna, pbIHOK M BEIXOA 3a NpeASnbl Boe, 110 NPOHCXOAHT BOKPYS, NOATBE PXAAET, WTO MEI MOCTOSHHO NpeYBODMABA- (eM PONE TeEXHOTOTHI 4 HENOOHEHHBAEM BAXHOCTS MPHPODHEDX pecypros... Hay HYAOHO....EPMYT TO, STO Met YTPATHME R TOPOMITMRBMK NOMBITKAX NepevenaTe \Mugp: OMTYIIIEHHe yetepPeHHOCTH, OCOAHAHHC RAKHOCTH PECYPCOB MITAHETH. Craapr FOnaan, 1980 ‘wa, Homo Sapiens oapusica wa 3eme Gonee 100 THcay AeT Rasa. 10 TH- foo JOT HASAN TIODH Y2KE YMEH OOpaGaTLIBATS 3EMTNIO H HANAN COBNA- BATb TIOCTOAHHEIe TocenenHa. TMocnennve 300 neT mpoHcxomHT GEICTpETA SKCTOHCHIM@TbHEM poct WHCNCHHOCTH HaceneHNa H Karmrama. 3a STH He- CKONBKO CTONCTHI GBUTO CenaHO MHOXCCTEO H306PCTeHHt B TeXHOMOTHTC- ckoll cchepe 1 H3MeHeHHit B cchepe COMMAIDHOL — OsBHJIHCE Taposoit aBH- TATENb, KOMMBIOTEpBE, KOpropallMit, MEXTYHAPOMHbIe TOPFOBbIE COPMALICH MAA H MHOTOe jpyroe. Bee STO MOSBOMINIO YeNOBeUecKolt SKOHOMUKe NpeomoneTs HEKOTOpbIe (PHSHYECKHE H YTIPABNEHYECKHE IIPeAeMA M NPOLOMKHTE oct. 3a NOGIETHHe HECKOUIBKO AOCHTHETHH PaspaCRUOWACH NPOMBLIUIEHHAM KYIIb- ‘Typ MPOHHKAa MpakTH€CKH B KAKAOe COOGINECTHO Ha ILIaHeTe M BCIORY pac- Tpocrpattwia OKWAAHMe GecKoHe4Horo MaTepHANbHOTO pocra. Micah 0 TOM, 4TO y pocTa MOryT GRIT Kakve-TO Mpeembl, ann MHOTHX Mole mpocto Hesoo6pasuma. O mpenemax He TOBOPAT HM NOAMTAKH, HH skoHOMHeTBI. Jit HHX 3TO NpocTo HemBicmMo. B KymeType yKopensetca TIPEACTABICHHE 0 TOM, ITO MIPENCIOB HE CYLECTBYEE, NOCKOIIEKY Be3He IIPH- BaBacToA EnyGouaillan Bepa 8 TEXHONOTHM, CBOGOZHBIA PbIHOK MH 9KOHOMH- MeCKHH POCT Kak CPEACTBO OT JUOGEIX pOGIEM, Hake EC/H OHH HOPOKLEHDI caMHM POCTOM. Walle scero Mortem World3 ynpexann B TOM, ¥TO OHa Hegoolerunana MOIIb TEXHONOTHA V He YUH TRIBATA CNOCOOHOCTH CBOGOTHOTO PHIHKa alantH- poBaTbca K OScTosTenECTBAM. JIeficTBETERSHO, B HCXOAHYIO Momenb World3 MBI HE BKMOYAIM OTICTBHEIC KOHTYPSI, OTIMCEIBAIOLIME TeXHONOTHYECKHH Hporpecc, KOTOpbiil Mor Ge aBTOMATHUECKH DELMT BCE IPOCEMBL, CESSAH- BIC ¢ SKCIIOHEHUMAIBHBIM POCTOM SKONOMMMECKOM Halpy3kH, 910 GEUIO cue- aHO HaMepelHO, MOCKOJILKY MLt H Tora He BEPHIH, H Ceiitiac He BeDHM, TO ‘TAKE TEXHONOTHYECKHe MIPOPLIBLI MOryT BOSHHKHYTS CaMH GOGO! WH B pe- SyMBTATe CAMOpeTYAALIHH CBOGOTHOTO pLIHKa. PasBHTHe TeXHOMOTHIt MoxeT OBIT BIeYaTIAIOUIMM H AaKE DOCTATOYHEIM, HO TOIBKO CCH GyIyT NPHHATBE OMDETEICHHbIC PellleHVA B COMMaMBHON céhepe M CCAM By yt KeAAHMe M Cpca- CTBa SOIMOTHTE ux B KWaHB. M1 faXxe ecm BCE CIOXUTCH MMCHHO Tak, BCE PaBHO HeOGxOJMMbIe TeXHONOTHM GyRyT MOABIATECA C CYLeCTBEHHEIM Texnoaceun, pusion u stexod sa npedens 227 3alta3qbiBaHMem. Taos Halll BSP, Ha MHp CerOdHA, H TaKHM %e OH 6BLI 30 JleT asad. MMCHHo 3TOT BSNL Hallie OTPaKcHHe B MomeAM World3'. Tinamars ser mexoropse rasopum 0 mperesax pocta. Ho ceromma mpi smaem, 3r0 ocr — anaravem uporpecca. Poct — apyr oxpyzavomcii cpexs. Mpesiaent Abxopmx X.B. By (George H.W. Bush), 1992 ‘Bor s myx caowax molt uporaos wa Gyayuee: marepuansei yposeus asa po- noamuT yryumaTeca 218 Gomunimcrea mone, B GomunnneTse CTRAR, upaRTINE> ‘ckA nocroanno H Ges orpansrvennli, B Teseame onporo-nByx cToneTHA Bce CTHAM W Gombunan IACTe eAOBeTWCTBA GYICT ANTE TAK, KAR CETOINA AUBYT B SAMARHDK ‘erpanax sum pace xyute, TTpasaa, 9 206aB200: npH TOM NHOTHE TIOAH NPOROURAT LYTWepAAITS, WTO YCHIONNA BUSRE CraHORETEN XyAE. JAlxymnan Caitncor (Julian Simon), 1997 B 1972 roay Pumexait xxy6 onySnwnonan aonrax +IIpertemst poctas, manmenraio- ‘RUNG COMHETIG YeTOBTHBOCTS POCTA SKONOMEEG! H SaICReMMOCTH Hacenemna, «IIpe- Feu pOCTa» IpOTHOSNpORAAR, ITO K CeNOIRATABEMY ANIO MAI Ye GyIeM HCIIT- arr HeXEETLY npoAOBOABCTHLA, YMeULMTeHKe THEAEHOCTH HACEIENAH, NPOGAEMAS C MOCTYMROCTBIO SREPTMN M YMERBMCHAE OMMAZEMOM NPOTOTANTETBAOCTH RSE. ‘Hu oo wx 37H npoposeeTD He HeHOAMNLIOCS, H NET EMKAKIX MPHDEAKOB TOFD, ITO ‘HeTOAANTCA B GyzyuNeM. Tak To TYT PHMCKIH KAYG Jat MAXY.. Hedman Kosmiarnes Exxon Mobile, 2002 ‘Textiueckii mporpecc 1 pbIHOdHaH 2KOHOMHKa OTOOpa3sW1Mch B CIPyK- Type MOJeNH KOcheHHO, HO 3a7O BO MHOrHX MecTax. B MogemH World3 mor MIpeaANONGAVIN, ITO HMCHHO pPbIHOK GyneT pacnpencaaTe OrpaHiieHHblii MHBECTHIMOHHEI KarTHTa 110 paaiWYHKIM HanpaBleHHsM, MB OCHOBHOM ‘370 GyNCT MpOXOMHTS 6e3 3anagibIBAHMH?, HeKOTOpble JOCTHKCHIA TEXHOAC- THii Hal OTpaxKcCHHe B MOZCAH — HalIPHMep, CPCACTBa KOHTPONA Hay pox- AeMOCTBIO, 3AMCHa ODHUX PeCyPCOB APYTHMH, 3eeHad PeBOMOLMA B CeNL- ckoM xo3aiicTe. B HeKOTOpbIX CUeHApHAX Mbl IIDOBepHIM, K YeMy IIPHBEeT YeKOPeHHE TeXHMTECKOTO MIPOrpeCca BOSMOXKHBIC TEXHONOLHYECKHE IIPO- PLIBLI B CpaBHeHMH ¢ OGLTMHLIM XO20M pazBuTHa. FTO, ecHH CbIPbe MOXKHO ‘GyileT NPAKTHYECKH NOAHOCTHIO Tepepabarhinath H MCTIONDIORATH MOBTOPHO? ‘Uto, civ ypoxaifHocTs Ha eNMHHUy TIOMIATM yROuTes cle HM eLe pas? Uro, cca BbIOpoce! 3arps3HCHHH OyAYT YMeHBUIATECA Ha 4% B roy Ha pors- XCHHM BCCTO TeKylUero cTONETHA? Ajaxe ecan tax u Gyger, Monenb Mupa BCE PaBHO TlOKa3bIBaeT CIPeM1eHHE K BBIXOsy 34 Mpegenb. Jlaxe cin noaparcsa cpepxabdbeKTMBHBe TexHONO- THH, @ PbIHOK MIPORBAT Ha PEAKOCTS BRICOKYIO CILOCOOHOCTS K amalralla — BCe PaBHO: ecnu amu uaMeHEHUA Gydym edurcmecHromu, MOEN’ NOCTPOHT ‘cCUeHApHH, BeAYIMe K KaTacTporbe. B soi rare MbI o6baACHHM, Tloremy. [pexkse YeM HayaTh, MbI JOKHBL TIpenynpenuTs, TO 8 STON Take pa3rOBOp NOMECT HC TOABKO O HayuHo yeTa- HOBICHHEIX (pakTAX, HO HO TOM, 4TO Bcerga Guo MpeuMeTOM Bepst. ECAH MBI CKAXKEM, WTO Ha TeXHONOTMIO Hi PIHOK pacrpocrpaHaiores poGyiemsl ¢ mpe- 228 Faasa 6 JlenaMv, HeKoTOpble SHTATEMH MOTYT NIPHHATS Hac 3a epeTHKOR H MpocTo MpOTMRHMKoR TeXHONOTH. Pasymeerea, 3t0 He Tax. Jlonenta nomyawia noKTopeKyto creneHs B Tap- BapackOM yHuBepentere, Henvic 1 Mopren salaTHIM DoKTopeKHe mMCcep- ‘Talia B MaccattyceTocKom TexHo/orM¥ecKOM HuCTUTyTe. H o6a 9TH yueOHEIe 3ABE/2HHA CUMTaKyTCa MpHSHAHHBIMH JIMepaMH B paspa6OTKe HOBBIX TeXHO~ JOTHH, Boe Mbt O4eHb YBAKHTC/IbHO OTHOCHMCH K HaYKe, BEDHM B ¢ BOSMOXK- HOCTH H B TO, ¥TO OHa CIIocoGHa MOMOb peIHTb NpOGNeMb! YENOBeYeECTEA. Hama co6crsennad pa6ora Hal NOCHeiOBATebHBIMH TepeHsiaHHAMK ITOH KHOTH yOooKnAeT Hac B yAMBNTeNBHOTE CHE TexHMMecKOTO TPorpecea. B 1974 F MBI TevaTaviM TeKCT Knut «I Tpeqesibs pocTa» Ha SneKTPHYeCKHX MTHMUYLUX Ma- WHHKaX, rpaKkH pHCOBAIH OT PYKH, a Aya paGoTs! Mozean World3 HaM t0- TpeGoBaiach GOvbIMAaA SN€KTPOHHO-SBMMCIHTEIbHaA Malla KOJIEKTHB- Horo Tomsonanns. Ha revepHposalve KaxKIOrO CLeHapH YXONHAG 110 10-15 mon. B 1991 Fr. MbI NepecMoTperH MOneMb, Hailcal HOBY10 KHHTY, TMOMPOTORICIN rpacbHKH H AHaTpaMMbI H CEMA BePCTKY — H BCe 9TO Ha Mep- COHAIIBHBIX KOMMBIOTepax. PaceyvTats cuewapHii Moses World3 3a 200-neT- Hii HHTepBan yaapanocb xe 3a 3—5 mam. B 2002 r Mbt ypKe MpocturbiRATH Mouems World3 Ha Hoyr6yKax, paGotanM Han penakTypoii TexeTa yepes Hiureper 1 coxpariann Bee pesymbtars! Ha KoMmakr-ancke. Ceiyac Ha m1po- TOH MOJEJIE HYKHO BCCTO HECKOMEKO ceKyHu. Mai rovaraeM, ¥To ToaOGHBIE ‘TeXHHYeCKHE YCOBEPLUCHCTBOBAHMA TIOMOTYT YMEHBLUMT Halpy3Ky Ha OKDy- >2XAIOWIYTO Cpeay H MPHBECTH €€ B COOTBETCTBHE ¢ MpesenaMu TuiaHeTET, TIpH- MeM C MHHHMANbHbIMH HeyloGCTRAMH HITE KepTBAMH CO CTOPOHBT 4e1OHEKA. Vi mpi ne mnttaemca mpenarp aatheme pRiHouHyto cucTemy. Mbr MoHHMa- eM v1 yaxkaeM ROAMOXHOCTH pHIKa. J[B0e 13 aBTOOR MOAYYHTH AOKTOPCKYrO ctertenh B H3BecTHeliIel 6v3Hec-mikoNc. Mopren 3aHMMacT TOcT npesHacH- ta Hoppexckoli mob McHemKMenta (Norwegian School of Management) Gonee 8 act. Hennuc Gaui noverntim wienom Likoatt Gusneca B Dapruyre (Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business) Gonee 16 1er. Mei 3acenain B ynpas- AMIOWMX COBeTAX BLICOKOpaSBHTLIX TeXHOACTHYeCKHX KOMNAMHH. MBI 110 cOGCTBEHHOMY OMTBITY 3#aeM, KAKHe CIOKHOCTH CRASAHEI C THAHOBOH IKOHO- MEKOii 1K KaKUM a6cypiHhIM CHTyallMaM HHOTJa MIpHBORMT LeHTpatH30BaH - Hoe TlmanHponaiue. MbI odes paccurrreisacM Ha Tlomy¥eHMe OF pBIHKa HCT- KHX OTKIHKOB H Ha pa3BHTHe TEXHOOTHH, MOCKONKY 9TO TOMOXKET MOCTpO- mms ycTofunpoe o6mnecTBo, xbdbexrupoe v oSecrererHoe. Ho bi He cnet BEPHM B3TO, HY Hac HET OGBEKTMBHELK OCHOBAHHM, STOO! OXALATE, 4TO TeX- HHYeCKHH [IDOMpecc WIN PHHOUHAN BKOHOMHKA CaMH TIO ceGe coslanyr YcTOIMIHBOe OGULECTBO —- OHH He CMOFYT 3TOFO CAeNaTb Ge3 OLPEHeeHHbIX WSMCHEHHI, 6e3 TOHHMAHHA, YBAKHHA 1 COSHATEMBHOTO CTPeMIeHHA K caMorIepxaHHio. ‘Haltia yMepentas nepa B TEXHO/OTHI H phtHOK OCHORAHA Ha Hallie 31a- HM NoBegeHHA cHcTeM. Ova ocHopatia Ha HallleM yMCHHM BEIp@KATE B HesTH- Texnoaceur, pesiox u @uxod 3a npedears 229 HeHHBIX MONENAX, MMCIONIMX OOpaTHBle CBSA, TO 13 ceOs MpencTaRnmoT TeXHONOTHHL H v0 wero MOXCT ClemaTb PbIHOK. ECT BbI HMeeTe OMIT CO- 3UaHVA KOHKpeTHEIX Moseiell CHCTeM, To BMECTo OG lacTeHt 11a MpemTTONOXxKe- Hii Bbi TONHaeTe KOHKDeTHBIe SHAH 0 byHKUAX aKOHOMMECKOH cHcTe- Mbi, €€ J1BYDKYIUMX (bakTopax H OTpaHHyeHHAax. B 210 rape MbI niponesiaem Clesyioes. + Onmwem oSpamtize chan B pBIHOUMOIE CHCTEME HB OGAACTH TexNaAOrMit TAK, ak Mul 0X NlOHUMaeM Mt XaK OHH OTPAXxeHE B MOREA World3. + Ofipucyest KommiorepHite pacer, B KOTOPA MBL TINTARUCh CHpABHTECA ¢ Mpedertamn ¢ niomoumio poe Gone sxbxbeKTHBHBAX TEXHO-IOTA. © O6:acKRIM, noveMy cTpeMeHHe K BEIXONY 3a Meme! MK KATACTPOMDE BCS PAB- ‘Ho MpoABaeTca B pacveTaX. © Hi saxoesun rapy, npeena 28a KORKPETHEIX MPHMEpA 43 283K (OHH — Tipo edhrs, mpyroit ~ mpo peiGonoRcTBO), 43 KOTOPAN COPEpINICHHO CHO, TO HH TEXHONOT, HH PHHONHAA SKOHOMHKA BORce He TapaHTHpyOT MocTeNcHITHA, epexou x yorormcpomy paseHTin0. Texnononim 4 ppiHodnad SKOHOMMKa B «peanbHom Mupe» “ro Takce TexHOJOrHa B HallleM ), B KOTOPOH HET TPOMEXYTOTHOTO 3Be- Ha — eH. Takoe JOmyUeHie NosBONAeT CaHT MHOXKECTBO SarlazabIBaHHA HM HerouOcTell, ColicTBEHHIX PHHOWLIM CHCTeMaM, Pa apyrHx TexHonorHii B MomleMH World3 He oTpaxkeHT, CH TOMbKO MBI He BCTPaMBaeM HX B MOET CNeMaNbHO, YTOObI NOTYINTh KOH KpeTHbI cite Hapnii. Sto sbpexTHBHOCTE MCTOMb20BAHH PecypcoR H HX nepepaborka, GoppOa c 3arpsaSHEHMAMH, HEOOLIMHOE yBENHYCHKe ypoxaitHocTH H GopEba c aposveli 104B. Korga Mb COszaBallM CaMyIO IIEpBYI0 MO/eNIb, MbI HE paccMa- ‘TPHBAIM 3TH TEXHONOTMM H YLIK HX TOKO Tora, KOrda OHH TONYMHIH TexHecKoe NONTBREPAUCHHE H Y2KE OLVIH KEM-TO BHE/peHE] — TEM, KTO MOT. ceSe NOsBOMHT? 3a 370 3armaTHTt*. TosTosy MBI 3arporpaMMApORAIH TeEXHO- FOTHH TAK, HOGHI HX MOKHO GHIO MHCKPETHO AKTHBHPORATS B SaTaHHbti MOMeHT BpeMeHH, KOTOPHIN yKaxeT nomb3oRaTens Moen. Hanpumep, K1O-TO MOXET IIPEANOTOXHTS, UTO BEC MHP BOIBMeT Ha CCBA O6s3ATCTECTRO TIOBCEMECTHO BHELPHTb MOBTOPHOe HCTIOMSOBaHHe pecypcos K 2005 r. HIM Bega GYAYT MPEAIPHHATBL YCIWIHA K YMCHBLIEHHWO sarpasHeHHi K 2015 1, B texyweli vepcuw mogeny World3 1 BapHaHTsl MpeAcTamieHbi B BHC , KoTOPLI MOcTereHHo paspabaTIBaloter, Kora B MONGIHpyeMoM MHpe BOSHHKaeT TOTPeGHOcTh B GONBIMEM KONHYECTBE pecypcon, B YMeHBIICHHH 3arpaSHeHHa HIM BIpOHBOACTRE BOMBUIETO KOH SdeeTBa MPOTOBOMECTBUA®. OnHaKO, 9pCKTHBHOCTS TAKHX TCXHOMOTHH OCTA- €TCa Ha YCMOTPCHHC Nomb3oBATeAA MogciM. Take TeXHOAOTHH, «BKTIOYAC- MBle» B OMPEMeMEHHBUL MOMEHT BPeMeHN, KOHEHO, TpeSylor BIOxeHHA KAILNTada, M OHM HaMWHaloy OKA3bIBaTS BIMAHMe He paHBllle, 4M 3aBepUNHT- CA TIepHO paspaOorky M BHEADEHMA, KOTOPbI OGLTUHO cocTaBieT 20 Jer. Kommblotepiaa Monenb yio6na Tem, ITO TosBosser MpOBepHTh pasibie MIpeATIONOKeHHA, MOCMOTPETS pasHbe RapHaNTEI Synymero. Hanpumep, MoxHo Ramm Cienapmit 2 (mocmemHHtit pacter, oncaHHbiit Br. 4, B KOTO- POM POCT 3aKOHHHICH 13-34 HACTYTIMBLLICTO KpH3HIca 3aMpASHEHUM) Ht TIOHH- Puc. 6.2. Cuenapnii 3: Gore nesox06uosMbX pecypcos, Gonee pasbuTue ‘TEXHQUOTMH OTpaHHeHHa BLIGPOCOR B 370m cucnapun MpenTionaractes TOT Ke OFLEN HeBCIOSHOSHMEN pecypCoB, "70 HB Cue- api 2, a TaxoKe Gonee SpdeKTHBHO’ OTPAHITICHHE BIOPOCOR B OKPYXAIOUIVIO epeay, 410 TOSBORACT CHYCKATH KOMHCCTBO 3axpASRCHH Ha CAAHITIY NPOMBIIDTCHHOM MPONYKIOTH Ma~ emmy 70 4% Bron, wasieas c 2007 r Sto noswomser AOCTITE SHATATETBHO GOES BHICO- oro yposna Guarococromtan avis Gomera KoRMMECTRA Monell Moce 2040 F., NocKOTEKY HeraTHEHED HOCTEACTBHII OF SarpaTHEHM MeEae. OaKAKO MPOMABOLCTEO NIPOHOBOMECT- BIL B KOH@ KOHMOB CHIPKHETCA, CTRIEKAN KAT] M3 IIPOMBILUIEHHOTO CeKTOpa MB MTOTE MpOBOUMpya KATACTPOby. Texsionozua, pihon u 6x00 3a npedens 233 Coctonue mapa Pacypel YpomeHh xusHH Torpe6wrenscune Tosaphs a aywiy Hacenatita 1900 2000 Tipoaosanscrane: wa Dyly HacenenMA Yeryra rr fe AYUly HaceneHHs 2100 Nokazarenb SnarococtonHuA H SKonorMueckaA Harpyska T Moxasarens ‘GnarococtonHia YenoBeKa aoe AHTponoreHHan HarpysKa (xonornyeckuit cnea, venoseveqraa} 1900 2000 Cuenapni 3 2100 234 Taaca 6 TePeCORATLCA: a ¥TO NPOMIONLTO Ohl, ec GhI MOACINPyeMMi MHP OTRETHUT Ma POCT KPHEOM 3aIpASHCHAA aLPeCHAIMM MHBCCTHLAMA B TeXHONOMM, YMCHDIMAIOIIME 3arpssHeHHe OKpyKAIOWUcH cpeabi? CueHapyia 3, moKasaH- bi Ha pyc, 6.2, ompeyaer Ha STOT BONIpOC. Pacumpenne npegenos ¢ nomoulsio TexHonornit B Mofenn World3 B Crenapym 3 0 zamxeimmx KoMMbIoTepHEDX pacuerax B STO KHHTe MBI HICTIOMESYEM Te 2Ke YBTITICHHTAIE 3aM1AChI HEBOIOGHORMMEIX pecypcoB M yooRep- INEHCTROBAHELI€ TEXHOTOTHH JOOKHH, UTO HB CueHApHH 2. B KOHKpeTHBIX Be- AMMHHAX 9TO MpeMIONATaeT TaKOe KOMHYECTBO HEBO3OOHOBUMEIX PeCyPCOB, ITO B 2000 rony Hx saracon GyzleT nocTaTOuHo Ha 150 neT pH coxpaHeHH Toll Ke CKO- pocm Tompetnenns. Ha 106nryy pecypcon exkerouHo OTRmHTCA 5% BanOBOTO TIPOMbELINeHHOTO MposyKTa. CueHapHit 2 GyleT cryXHTh HaM Aid CpaBHeHHA, ‘YTOOH MOAHO ObUIO ONPETENHTS, KAKOBA POT TEXHONOTHH H TOsTHTHMOCKHX 13- MeHCHHTA. Mbt BHOCWIH HSMeHeHMa B CHCTeMy MO OgHOMY: CHaYala TeXHOJIOrHH YMeHBIIEHHA BHIGpOCOB sarpAasHeHMil, 3aTeM TeXHONOTMM MOBBINEHMS ypo- 2XalHOCTH, 1 TAK Nasee, HO He B MpeANOOKEHMM, ITO MUP MOKET BHEMATS TaKHE TeXHONOTHH TOLKO TOOOYEPELHO, a NOTOMY, 4TO TakOe paaNeNeHHE TIOSBONET YUE NOHATH, KAK PearHpyeT MOJeNb HA KUKLOe WSMeHEHHe. Alaxe Korma MbI caMH NIPORORWIM MHOMOYHCHCHHEe MporoHs! MOTeIH ‘World3 c rerio MayHHTE sehexT Of BHEMPEHMA RCEX TPEX TEXHOMOTHE OMHO- BPeMeHHO, MBI CHawaMa BHOCHIM H3MeHEHHA Mo OTHOMY, YTOObI BbIA BIMAHHe KAXKTOH TEXHOMOTHH OTIeNbHO, H AMLIb B KoHUe NpodopamH, TIOVIYYATCA, CCK OCYLLECTBUTE UX BCC OTHOBPEMeHHO. “ ZLui MHOrHx SKOHOMHCTOB TeXHOOTHA — 370 OTLeMbHbI HOKasaTeNb B KOHKDeTHOM BapHaHTe ypaBHeHHA MIponsBolcrBeHHoll byHkuHH KoOGa-Ay- Taaca. Sror noxkasaTenb paGoraeT aBroMaTHyeckH, Ges sanagmbIbaHHA, Ges AOTIOMIUTENDHAIX PacXOTOB, 623 OrpanH4eHHit H WaAeT TOABKO KeMae METH Sep- éhexr. HeynwnirrenbHo, 470 SKOHOMMCTEI TAK CTEMO REpAT B TOTeHNMaT TEx- HoNOTHit Ana pemlenna TpoGrIem YenoRevecTBa! OpHaKo B epeaTbHOM Mupe> ‘Het TeXHONOTHii C TAKHMH BOsLTIEOHEIMM CBOlicTRAMH. TexHOOTHM, KOTOPEIC ‘HaM JOCTYIHBI, HalIpaBlIeHbi Kaka Ha PeleHve KOHKpeTHOli mpoGeMb!; BCE OHH CTOAT AeHer M1 TpeGyloT ATeIbHOTO BpeMeHH Ha paspaGorky. Hoc- Ae TOTO Kak BX IIPHIOAHOCTS LoKazaHa saGopaTOPHAIME METOHAMY, HYXHO OnpesereHHoe BpeMA, ITOGLI MONYIHTE accKrHOBaHHA Ha BHeMpeHHe, Ha- HATE paGowx, MepcoHan TO NpolaxKaM Wi OGcMyKHRAHHIO, 3a7eHCTBROBITE MapkeTHHTORBie M (pHHaHCOBbIe MEXAHM3MBI [111 TIOBCEMECTHOTO TIpHMeHe- ‘HMA TexHomoTHi. Uacto Hapally ¢ TomesHbIM 3¢ IIPHMEPOM TAKOTO s1B- THEA MOXET CHYXHTE MPHMcHeHHe H3BECTH ANT HellTpanHaainiM MocTencT- BHA KHCTOTHBIX JOKeH, HCMONLsonaHne yTOSpeHHHl {UIA BOcTIOMMEHHA TH- ‘TaTeMHBIX BEWIECTR B NowRe (OOBMHO HX COAMAIOT MOWREHHEIe MUKpoopra- H¥3MHI, HO OHM CTpaqalor 13-34 NPHMCHeHMA MeCTHUMAOB), a TAKE OPraHH- 3AM OpOMIeHHA, YTOGEI KOMIICHCHPOBATS HC1OCTATOK OCaDKOB, BA3BAHHBIT W3MCHEHHeM KTAMaTa. B Cuenapnn 3 npormbocrost be TeHACHUIMM: yMeHbIeHHe ILIQMOPOIMA MOB! K YBCIMICHHE HCNOALSOBAHMA CeALCKOXOGHACTBEHHBIX XUMHK&TOB; ¢ pacyetHoro 2010 no pacuerHbih 2030 rr. NpoH3BoACTBO NpOAOBOALCTBHA Mod NepXWBaeTCA Ha TOCTOMHHOM yponHe. Tem BpeMeHeM YHCIeHHOCTE Haceme- HUA NPOMOMDKAT PACTH, MO3TOMY MIPONSBONCTBO MIPOAOBONLCTRHA Ha AyUTy HaceeHMa HadiHNaeT yMeHbIaTECA. HeckoabKo DecATWICTHi MpCH3BOJCTBO TIPOMBILDICHHOM NPOLYKUAM H YCAYT MOSBONLACT NOMA PAKHBATH HOCTATOMHO: BEICOKMI YPOBEHE XHSHH, HECMOTDA Ha TO, YTO ceEcKoe XosMlicrBo TpeGyeT Bee GombuIMx MHBecrHumit. 3aTeM, YYTS NODKe, HHBECTHUMM HYKHbt euue 1 WIA CHYDKEHMA YPOBHH 3arpsa3HeHna. B nocnemHeti tpeTH XX] B. ypopeHb ga- IPASHEHMA CHHMTCA HACTOMLKO, TO MPOAYKTHBHOCTE 3€Mei> BOCCTAHABII- BaeTes. OMHAKO YMCICHHOCTD HACeICHHA OCH BENHKA, M UIOMIATb cemb- CKOXOSSVICTREHHENK YONI YMCHDIIACTA BONENCTRNE PaspaCTaHHA POPOOB WB pesynsTare 30s. Bones Toro, BO Bropoli NonoAMHe craneTua GpIeTPO CHIDKACTCA NPOV3BONCTBO MTPOMBILUNEHHOM Mponyxun, MOCKOMBKY CIMIL- KOM MHOPO HHBeCTHIHt OTBIEYeHO OT BOCTIPONSBOTCTBA TIPOMBILLTIEHHOTO. Texnoaoeus, pranox 4 asoiod 3a npedeste 237 Ta6iuya 6.1. Bausiue TEXHONOTHH Ha BMOpOCH CTORKHK sarpaSiNTese! B Mone World3 To Comoxenme, % 2000 0 2020 10 2040 48 2060 B 2080 89 2100 95 Ec naSopatopHite TeXHOROTHH MOFYT EX€PONHO NOBLILATS S>heKTHBHOCTL Ha 4%, a.3a- ‘TeM BHEAPRTECSLB MInPOBOE TIPOIEIBOICTEO CO CpeqHKCM ZanaymTEAiHIEM B 20 1eT, 10 BHIEPO- CHa SBIPASHETOA B OKPY-KAIOLIYIO ce MOTO GLICTpO YMeHEUTATE. B TaGILAMe MpETBOMATCA powers cruoKeHnsi sbipocos, aocmarHyTae « Moet World3 8 Cuenapays 3 uocte 1010, kak MoeAKpyemoe HaceTeHHe B pacterHom 2002 I, MITAeTCA YMeHLILHTb 2aTpsIHeHHe ¢ Ma- KCHMATEHO BOIMOXHOH CKOPOCTHIO, KAKYIO TOAEKO MOKET OGECTIENHTE TEXHDTGeCKHEA Mpa Tpece. KaruTana (aMOpTH3alivia), YTOOBI HaNpaBHTS HX B CeMBCKOe XOasHICTBO HHA YMCHSIICHHe 3arpa3H¢CHHA OKDy-KaloWlei cpenbi. SKOHOMMKa NPHXOMHT B YIaQOK CLE H M3-3a HapACTAIOWIETO HCTOLIEHMA HEBOSOOHOBMMBIX DECyPCOB: B KOHUE CTONCIMA, HB HTOLe HaCTylaer KOMALIC. OGuectso B CueHapHHt 3 cylecTReHHo CHMDKaeT yponeHb 3arpaSHeHHa, eMY YIRETCH TPOMODKHTENBHOS BPEMA NOMIEDKHBATH BLICOKHA MOKA3aTeNb GilarococrosHMd YenoBEka. OHAKO B KOHLE KOHTOB ROSHUKAIOT MpooreMbl ¢ MpoqoRoNbcraHeM. CucHapHit 3 MoxKHO ONMcaTh KaK sKPH3HC FIpPOXOBONIb- CTBHa>. PasyMeeTCH, B MOXHO IPVHATS Mepbl K TOMY, 470Gb! MPOM3BONICTBO FIPOMOBOMTECTBMA NOAEPKHBAIOCE Ha KENACMOM YPOB- ne. UTo mpousoiirer, ect OGINeCTBO HalpaBHT BCe TEXHONOTHUECKHE YOM Ha TO, 40Gb! peuIATs NpoOrey MpoqOBONLCTBHA? OHH M3 BOSMOXKHBIX pe- SYIbTaTOB [10Ka34H Ha DUC. 6.3, B CueHapHH 4, B9ToM BapHaHre pacteTa TOxKe MIpHCYTCTBYeT MpOI GCOpbOb! Cc: 3aMpASHe- HAMA — Take, WTO HB CueHapy 3. Ho ogHoBpeMeHHOo} B TOM xe pacteTHOM 2002 r, OSUIECTEO peUaeT IPHHATS 9KCTPCHHBIC MepbI HK MpConoeHHIo TPOAOROTLCTBCHHON TIPOGNEMBI, KOHTYPbI KOTOpO! BHIPHCOBBBAIOICA B kone 1990-xrr: XX B, Hnsecrvupin nepexnoyaircs Ha paspaS0rky TexXHONOTHH AIA YEQMMMCHMA YPOXKAHHOCTH CENIbCKOXOSTHCTBEHHEDX Kymbtyp. JO LUAPOKOTO BHENPCHIA 3THX TeXHONLOFHil Ha BCEX dbepMepCKHX NOX Mpa NDOXOAT BCpeL- HeM 20 /1e1, a Kona €cEb NOTpeOHOCTE, TO ypoxkaHHOCT elle yBEMHUMBaeTes Ha 4% BTOU, H CTEM 2Ke JaraGHbIBAHHeM. VHBeCTHLIMH B TeXHONOTHH YReTHYHEaIOT SaTpaTB] KATTHTAa MOUTH Ha 6% B 2040 5, WHa 8% B 2100 r Alo 2050 r sHagHTenb- Holt TpHGanic B ypoxkatOctH HET, NOCKOAEKY 14a TO PCM MPONOBONECTEHA 6e3 Toro AocTAaTOTHO. O7HAXO BO BTOpoit MANIOBMHe CTonervia cpezHAA MpOLyK- TTHBHOCTS SHANHTCIBHO BOSPACTAeT B PESVIbTaTe SKCHOMCHLMATEHO! NPMpO!sL ‘TEXHOMOTHMECKOTO Mporpecca, 2A1OXHHOTO B STOT CLIeHApHL. 28 Cocronnne MMpa Pecypoot “T Mpoma Taaea 6 Marepnansnnii yponenb xasnit Torpe6urenscane tosapes a AYWY HaceneHAn Mpoqogonectave a pyyury HaCeNeHMR ,t Py ferry oa 6 ayuly Hagemann 1900 2000 2100 Noxazarent GnarococToRHMA 4 SkonOrMNeckan HarpysKa GnarococtonHis NenogeKa T Hoxasatenb a> 1900 Dxonormveckaa Harpyana avononmecni cne “enosevecTsa) 2oco Cuenapnii 4 2100 Texnoaozua, prinox u atixod sa npedene 239 B pesymptate MpHMepHo B cepenmHe XXI B. HMeeT MecTO AHTeENEHBIE Te PHOM C BBICOKOM SHCTCHHOCTHIO HACEIIEMHA H BEICOKGM ypoBHeM 6y1arococ- TosHs venopeka, Hopste arpapHble TEXHOMOTVM TOMOTaIOT YBENTEHTE T1po- MBO/ICTBO NPOMOBOMBCTBIA c 2050 F. (To cpaBHeHHio co CueHapnem 3), HO mpoGvleMy ¢ MpoayKTaMH IMTaHHA STO He pelllaer, NOCKOILEKY YMCHBICHHE MPOJYKTHBHOCTH H NOTeps NaXOTHHIX SEMeMb BOICICTBHE 3pO3HH H ypOaHt- SALIH B KOHLIG KOHUOB NepeBewmBseT Bce MoNOXGTEMSHBIe sdebexTst CT CeNbCKOXOSACTBCHHDX HHHORAUH. Hasunas ¢ 2070 r., npoHsboncrRo Npo- HOBOMPCTBHA CHIDKACTCH. BpicOKaR MHTCHCHBHOCTh SCM/CNOMSORAHMA B 3TOM CUeHapHn MpHBOMMT K Mporpeccupyloulell sposHHt 3eMem — He TOABKO 3-34 MOTEPs CaMOTO OUBEHHOTO cod, HO HB pesyNsraTe YMeHBILeHHa CO DepxaHvd B HEM MMTATeMbHBIX BEHIeCTE, YIMIOTHEHMA TpyHra, 3acONeHHA APYTHX TIPOLeCCOB, KOTOPLe YMeHBINAIOT MPOTYKTHBHOCTD. Semenb GydeT ocTapaTbca BCe MeHbIle, H pepMepaM NpHleTCH ITbITaTECA co6paTb 6onbWmHi ypexxaii ¢ MeHEWeli Toman. BaicoKad HHTCHCHBHOCTE HCNONB30BaHHA NIPHBOIHT K elie CObILeH SPO3HH, BCHUTY BCTYTIaeT KORTYp NOMGKMTEAbHOM OOpaTHO! CRAM, KOTOPhIM BEET K paspywICHMIO 3oMCmb. Cyenapnii 4 Moxio Ha3baTs «KPH3HCOM 3po3HH 3eMemb», KOTOPhiH 20CTH- raeT MaxcuMywa rocne 2070 r. — Korgja TlaXOTHEIX 3eMenL Karactpoiriecki He Xpavaer. C TaKMM KpH3HCOM GBICTPO ChpaBHTECA HEBO3MOKHO WaXKe 3a cYeT BEICOKOYPOXKAlIHEAX arpapHBX TeEXHONOTHH. B pesysTare HeDHLAT MIpo- HOBONLCTBUA NPHBODHT K YMCHBULCHHIO YHCTCHHOCTH HaceneHHa. CenbeKo- XOSAHCTBCHHLIM CeKTop, NepexMRalouii Gonbume mpobmembl, TpeSyeT Bee Gosmpllte # Gombitte KanirTana H YeNOREYECKHX pecypCoR, OTRIEKAA HX OT Apy- Tx HanpaBnennil, a Reb BTO>Ke CaMoe BPEMA KANMTAIOBNOXeHHA OCTpO He- o6xonuMBI pecypcomo6piBaloulemy cexTopy. Katactpota HacTyTIaeT elle 10 2100 r. m 3arparipaer npakTHyeckH Bce ccbepbl XUSHH. KoxesHo, Hn ogo sapapompronsiee OGUeCTBO He CraHeT MCHON3OBATE ‘TAKHE COIbCKOXOSACTBCHHDIC TEXHO/OLHM, KOTOPhIC MOBLIMAIOT YPOXKAlH 3a cider paspyulenta semenb. K coxxaieHmo, B peartHoll xXHSHH TIpHMepoR Ta- Koro Tone nena Macca. B LlewrpanbHok Aonwne (Central Valley) B Kanscbop- HH 3eMH slerpatMpoRaNH B pesynbTate 3aconeHMA, a Ha 3OMITX, PAcTiO10- {XCHHBIX 6yKBAIBHO PATOM, TIPOMOMKAIOT MPUMEHATE Te 2Ke caMbIe MeTODI, ‘wr066! YsenuunTS ypoxaimocrs. Ho jasaifre, Bce-TaKH, NpeNMO1OKHM, YTO IPALYLUMe nOKOIEHHA Gyayr Becrn ce6x Gonee pasymHo. Hycre B MogenH Puc. 6.3. Cuenapitt 4: Gomnitte HeROIOSHOBUMNX pecypeos, Soree passirTele ‘TEXHONOTHH O/PAHHeHHs BEIOPOCOB H YBENMGEHHS YDOKANHOCTH 3eMeMTE [EcAH K MogeRH Mapa JoGaBIMT. He TOMLKO TeXHOTOTMH OrpaMENesiMt BLIGPOCOB, HO It Konm- ‘JKC TEXHOAOTHA A YERAITCHH TPOHSBOACTBA NPOMOBOMLCTBHA Ha CIMAMUY NNOWANH CemmcKONOSANCTBCARTD YONA, 7 DBICOKAR HHTeHCMBHOCTS SeM.TENOUTEGOBAKIIA NPHBOAHT XK GHICTpoMy HicTOIeHMNO MTMOTepe sewer. DepMepa wpa BymyT GeayeneltIHO MTATECATIO- NY'OMT BCE SOMBULE MIPOAOROMECTAVA CO BCE MEHBIIMX TUIOUIANE!, 4370 HEROTMOxHO JeMATh 0 Beckonexmoent 240 Cocronnwe wpa Fnasa 6 Pecypes Mpommune-aa —| NponyRyi 1900 MarepwanbHblit - oN Sarpacenne 2000 YROBeHb HOHE florpetiurantckie Tozapa Ha AYILY WacaneHna a wa aywy Hacen Tpoacsonbersne 4a 1900 a ayuly HaceneHHA 2000 Tloxazatene Gnarococtoanus 4 3konormueckas HarpyaKa 2100 T Tloxasatans GnarococroaHnn YenoseKa Swanonmeckan Harpysta (exonormuecent cnad, Menovevectsa) 1900 2000 CyeHapnit 5 2100 Texnonoeun, punok u 6vtxod sa npedentt 241 BTV TEXHOMOTHH 3AUIMTHI FEMEM OT NOCHEACTRUM 3arpssHeHHA W TeX- HONOTMM, MO3BOTMOUIME YRETMUNTE MPOAYKTHBHOCTS Ge3 HETATHBHBIX I0C- neucrsmit. B Cuenapaa 5 Ha pc. 6.4 moKasaHo, Kax BemeT ceOA CHCTEMA, B KOTOpoil Takve HaMeHEHHA BCTYNIIM BCHIY. BoToM cilevapHu Mid MonaraeM, ITO, B LONOMHEHME K y2Ke BHECEHHBIM B CHCTEMY TeXHOJOFHAM YMeHbILeHHA FAPASHEHBA HW NOBLOMEHH ypoxKalino- eH, c 2002 r. HayHHaeT ZeficTBORATE MexKIyHapodHan NporpaMMa SopLObi c Spoameit semenb. Kak Bb! NOMHITe, MEI MpeATIOA@KWIL, ITo NepBbre ABE Mpo- TPaMMEI MoTpeOyloT LONONHHTCHEIX KATIHTAIOBIOXCHHH. C TpeTecii Mpo- TPaMMOii MBI TIOCTYMWIN Mave: Mal Tipegrionaraem, “ro Ona He NoTpeGyer AOMOMHHTEABHEIX HHBECTHUMH, TAK KAK [id €€ OCYMIECIIEHMA HYAGHO TIpO- CTO HCHOMLIOBATS Gone GepeXxHbie TEXHONIOIMH BeLEHUA CeNbCKOrO XOamit- TBA, MOIRA CpOK KHSHH TOE. OnMchiBaeman MpOTpaMMa He AaeT CKOTBKO-HHGY!bh SAMETHDIX TOTOKH- TOABHEIK pesymsraros 110 2050 r, KOrRa CKOPOCTH paspyilleHHs TOUR peso CHIL SKAIOTCA 24 CRET TIPHMEHEHT Gores TANELTHX TEXHOMOTH 36MNETOMRIOBAHHA Bvrtore nepuog BbICOKOTO GiarocOcTORHMA ICIOBCKa HEMHOTO MPOMIEBACTCA — OH TaHeTCa Jaxe Tocie 2070 r. Ho sror pesysbTaT HeyCTOMHHB, H ero He ynacT- cw yaepxkars Houro. B Cuenapam 5 Karactpodba HaCTynaer 13-34 COBNIAIeHAA KPHSHCOB CDasy 110 HECKO/IBKHM OTPaGASIM, HAGTYTAIOLUMX MIPAKTHYeCKH OHO- BPeMeHHO: HCTOUIMIOTCH pecypCht, He XBATAeT NPONOBORLCTBUA, SATPATLI He- o6bralHo Bospocmm. [TpxMepro no 2070 r. cpemHHttt MoKasaTemb YeonedecKo- To GRarOCOCTOAHHA OCTACTCA OTHOCHTEITHO BEICOKHM, HECMOTPA Ha HEMpHsT- HbIe Kosle6aHHa MapaMcTPoR, 13 KOTOpEIx OH bopmupycies. FIpomOBONIBCTBHA B oOniem xBatacT (XOTA €TO FIPOHSBONCTBO CHEDKACTCA B CpemHeli TpeTH cromeTva), YPOBCHE 3aIpaSHeHH TepraMatit (xoTs B TOW 2%Ke TpeTH CromeTHA DOcTHTaeT HOBOJBHO BEICOKHX 3HaveHHi), IKOHOMHKA Pacter (KaK MHHUMYM Ho 2050 r), YoryTH craHoBaTcd Gores AOCTYNHEIMM, OAMJACMAA MPOAQLKHICNLHOCTE oKHSHH Mpepbunaet 70 jet. OgHaKo mocue 2070 r. sarparbt Ha paaiW4Hble TeXHO- AOTHH, TUHOC pacTYIIMe pacxobi Ha MOGLMy HeBOGOGHOBHMLEK pecypcon H3 TIpaKTH¥eCKH HCTOWIEHHEIK MECTOpOXIEHHH, TPeOyloT GOMbIVE KANHTATOB, 4M 3KOHOMHKa B COCTOSHMH [aTb. PesybTaT -- JOBONIbHO pe3kHii yrianoK. CueHa- PH 5 MoxHo Ha3BaTb KOMOMHALHe? HECKOABKHX KPHSHCOB. Kro-ro Moxer cripocuiTs, Kakoe 13 HanpawicHHi HesrrenbHocr OOwecT- ba [OMMaCIGH NeperpysKe A NPHACT B yTIaHOK NepBEIM? Aonycrnt JM OGWeCT- BO, YTOGLI MPOMSOLUIO paspyLeHHe 3eMeMb, HIM HE YCJIELMT 3a CWIbHbIM 3a- Puc. 6.4. Cuenapti 5: Gonbiie HenosobHonnmntx pecypco, Goce paspHTLie TEXHONOTHM OTpaHHSCHHA BEIGPOCOR H YBOMHYCHHA ypOXAiHOCTH 3eMeNS MUTIOC TporpaMMa 2allIMTHl 9eM@rIb OT 3POIHH [B STON clletTapint K TEXNOTOMSIM, MOBLINAIOUDOM YPONAMMEIOCTD CHIOKAIOIIMM sarpAgHe- He, LOGABNMOTCA Mepbi TO SaLIMTE SeMemTb oT 9poaHTh. B pesy.AbTATe KaTACTPOda OTOIBHTA- ‘e708 Ha eure Gonee NOANHee epeMal K HacTyMIAcT TOTHKO K Koy XXI 5, 242 Faaea 6 Cocroanne mupa Pecypeut aa o 1900 2000 2100 Marepmanbitiri yponens xusnn T TlotpeGwrenscxye Towape: Ha AYWy HaAceneHWA - 1 Tiponosonectene va Aywy wacerermn 2000 2100 Noxazatene SnarococronHus u axonomueckan HarpysKa Toxasatens GnarococrosHva Yonopexa Sronormuscxen narpyaKa (okononnsecati onen verteevecrea) Po 1900 2000 2100 Cuenapiali 6 Texnoaceun, potion u 6x00 3a npedenn 243 TpASHeHHEM cperpl, WIM CTONKHETCA C HEXBATKOH cHIpbA? Moyen World} Tipenmiomaraer, 1To LOOBIe Chips M McKOTIAeMOrO TOIUIMBa GyzeT OTNaH IpH- OpHTeT, MOCKONEKY OHH HeOGXOAMMBI 14 NolepxXaHHA NpOvsBorCcTBa Npo- MBIMLACHHOM MpOAYKLUMH, KOTOPAd, B CBOIO OVepERb, HEOOXOMHMA L)U1 MHBC- CTHPOBAHHA B pYMMe CeKTOPE SKOHOMHKH. KOHKpeTHbIH BbIGop 1 TOWHA cXeMa IOBe/leHHHA CHCTeMbI B TOT MOMeHT, Kola KallHTaiia Ha BOC HE XBATRET, He Tak PX BOXKHBI. MbI He MpeTeHyeM Ha pollb MpencKasaTeselt TOTO, wax TIO- CTYNHT MHP, CCA AelCTRHTEILHO CTOIKHETCH C TakOH cuTyauHe’. Hac He HHTepecyIOT KOHKPCTHEIC 3HAYCHHA KOHKPCTHRIX MapaMeTpoR Mlocre Toro, Kak Ipov30uuia Karactpodba, Ham 6aKHO YBKACTB, TO camo HacTyTiNeHHe KaTaCTPObbI BOIMOXHO, YTO OGLUECTEO Mone © STUM CTOJIKHYTBCA. Eciv 1ocieayas Katuii, BoisbIBaOUIasl MOGanbHyio KaTacTpody B CueHa- HH 5 — 370 HeTOIeHHe HeDOSOOHOBHMLIX Pecypcon, To Tora LomKHa NO- MO4b MporpamMa pecypcocbepexertta. oSanim ee K MpeMbUTyIIMM TeXHO- nlormam. Ha pute. 6.5 noKazan pesynnrar: Cuenaputi 6. ‘Tenep 8 Moenipyemom Mupe pa3BMBalOTCd MOUHBIe TEXHONOTHH, O0HO- BPCMCHHO ITOSBONSIOMINC YMCHBILIATD 341 PASHCHHC, NOBHICHTS YPOXAHHOCTS, 3AaLMTMTb 3CMAH M PaCXOZOBATb pecypchl SKOHOMHO, Bee 37H TexHONOMMH TpeGylor KaNMTaOBIOKEHHK, MO MOMeHTAa BHEPeHHA BveX NIpOXoTMT 20 ner. B coBOKyIHOCTH 3TH TeXHONOTMH JODKHB! OGecreUHTS NpoUBeTAHHe Mupy ¢ Go/bIMIM HaceneHHeM, T0Ka HAWUIHA He SaKAHYMBdeTCA H3~-3a TOO, ‘YTO BCE TEXHONOTHM TpeGyt0T KalTHTanOBIOKeHHH. B 2002 r sanyckaeTea nporpaMMa, MOsBOTAIOIAd CHESHTE NoTpetneHHe HEBOSOOHOBHMBIX PecypCOB Ha CUHHVIUY MpOMBUULICHHOH MporyKunn co CKOpocTaio Jo 4% B rox. [pemsimyuune MporpamMbI OCTaIOTCA B CHUIe: YMeHB- WWeHHe 3arpasHenEsl OKpyKaloUle CpeAbl, MOBILEME MpOmyKTHBHOCTH 3¢- Memb, 3ai1ntTa OT 331M. (DaKTHNeCKH, BCE BMecTe OHM COCTABASIOT rpaHIH- o3nyio nporpammy XXI B. no yeemm4eHio aKonorHueckoli sdbexTHBHOCTH, H PACXOUbI H8 TAKyIO TIPOIpaMMy Toe [PaHAHOSHE! (OHH Ha 20% BespacTaloT k 2050 Fr. wna 100% — k 2090 r). OcHoBHas Ile — 3HAYHTENEHO YMeHEITe- He SKOMOTHYECKOH HAIPy3KH. ‘Takoe MOULHOC COUCTAHME TeXHONOTHI MOSROTICT H3OCKATh KATACTPOphl, KoTopas B Cuenapin 5 Hactynia B nocHeAHelt TpeTH XXII B. OgHako Bce 91H ‘TEXHONOTHA JalOT KeNaeMbili pesy-1bTaT CAMLUKOM TO31HO, M 9TO He OSBON- eT HaGexKaTS NOCTENEHHOTD CHIDKEHHA NoKazaTeus GAaOcOCTOAHHA YeOBe- Ka B ocaegueii Tpem XX] B, WacieHHOCTS HaCeIeHHA YMeHbIAeTCA HesHa~ YHTE/IbHO, HO OKOMO 2050 F. BPeEMeHHO HAQNOLRCTCA JOBONLHO CepLesHoe YMeHbUeHHe OXHMAeMOlt MpOnOsDKHTeM>HOCTH yaTaHH. OnHoBpeMeHHO — Pre. 6.5. Cuenapmii 6: Gomiie Hesos06HosMMBIx pecypcon, Saree pasRuTEte TEXHONOTHH OfPaHHYeHHA BLIGPOCOB MW YBEITIEHHA YPOXAMHOCTH 3eMeNb, MPO- TPaMMa 3ail]HTbl SEMEN» OT 3POSHH M PecypcocheperaloulMe TEXHOMOTHM 244 faasa 6 KOT PORCH 2arpASHCHHA TocTaTOUHO BBICOK, YTOGBI 3TO cKAsANOCH Ha ANTIOAOPOMH ICMCITS ~~ TANACT MPOHIBOACTBO NpOAOBONLCTBHA, HO ITY MpCb- JIeMy B KOHUC KOHUOB yaaeTos MpeosoneTh, Tak KaK JaioT ceGa 3Harb PesysIb- Tall TEXHOIOIHH YBQITCHHA yPOKAaMHOCTH HM YMCHBUIeHHA 3aIpa3HeHHA cpemsl. HeposoOHOBHMBle pecypcel pacXoZylOTCa MeIIeHHee, HX CTOUMOCTE OCTaeTCH Ha JOCTaTOWHO HE3KOM YPOBHE. K KOHUY BeKa, B Te'4eHHe KOTOpOTO NPOW3ZOUVIO CTOALKO COGEITHH, CTaSWIMSHPOBABMIAACA YHCACHHOCTL Hacene- HAS COCTARTACT OKONO 8 MAPA YeI., KOTOPEIC KHBYT B BLICOKOTEXHOROTHY- HOM Mupe, Te ypoBeHh 3arpASHEHHA HEBHICOK, a MOKa3aTenb GrarococTos- Ha YenopeKa MpuMepHo TaKolt xe, KaKOw Gout B 2000. Oxvaemas npomon- 2XHTCABHOCT XVSHH [4 TIPOMSBONCTEO NPOAOBOALCTENA Ha ALLY HaceeHHA GoubIIe, OCTYTHOCTh YCMYT TaKaM XE, a TIPOMSBOACTBO NOTPEOHTEILCKHX TO- Bapob Ha sIYUy HiDKe, 4eM Te 2X TIOXagATENH B Havase BeKa. TIpoH3Bo0CTBO TPOMEMIVIEHHON NPOLYKIMH HAYMHaeT YMEHDIUATECA TIpHMepHO f 2040 r., TockomBky KaNMTall OTBACKAIOT OT PeHHBCCTHPOBAHHE B MPOMBILEHHOCTE HanpanaMorT Ha Gouee HacyWHHe 3aauH — 3allIMTy HaceAeHMA OT Tonosa, peal — Of 2arpASHCHAA, Semen — OT PaspyBICHHs. /Ja H YMCHBLICHHIC HCBO- 306HOBMMEKX pecypcos NPHBOIMT K OTRIEYeHHNO MHBSCTHUMH. BcKope Moce 3TOTO TaMaIOT MPOMSBONCTBO yCIYT Ha AVI HaCeLeHHA M ypoBeH MaTepH- allbHoro notpeGeHna. B xoHLe KOHUOB MOmeTMpyeMBllt MUD Y>Ke He MOET NOCD KHBATS BEICOKHE KHSHEHHBIC CTAHMAPTEL, TAK KaK TEXHOMOTHH, COL AUILHLIC YCTYTH H TOTPEOHOCTE B HOBEIX HHBECTHLUMAK OAHOBPeMEHHO CTAHO- BATCA [LTA SKONOMMKM HEMpeMeHHMO BAICOKHMH — HaCTYTIacT KPH3MC HHBC- CTH. HexoTopiie oTknoHeHuA Tlocae paGorbi ¢ MORe/bIO, KOMITDIOTePHO JIM, MbICACHHOM 1H, Boeraa T0- ESHO CHENATE War Haga M HaMOMHMTE ceGe, 4TO MBI KIMGIIH es10 BOBCE HE ¢ , OCHOBLIBASCE Ha TeX LAHHBIX, ITO OUI HaM JOCTYTIHBI, H Ha Halllem coGct- BEHHOM MIpeCTaBEHHM 0 TEXHMMECKUX BOSMOKHOCTAX. ‘YaHTbIBas BCe 9TH HEOMpeACEHHOCTH, MBI, DaIyMeeTCA, HE NO/DKHEI OLe- HIMBATS [LOTYYCHHBIE B PasHbIX CUEHAPHAX TpapHKH KOMMYECTBEHHO. Dit Hac He TAK YK BOKHO, YTO MPONOBONBCTBEHHEI KPHSHC B CileHapHH 3 HacTyNHT PaHbule, 4em KpusHC pecypcos. Moxer, OHM TIPOM30HAyT B ApyrOM TopAaKe. Mbt ne Tpencka3niBaem, 4TO YMCHbILICHE NPOMBILIVICHHOFO MIPOM3ROICTRA HauHeTea MMeHHO B 2040 £, Kak B CueHapHn 6. Hmerompnca B Hallem pac- TMlop@KEHHH CTATHCTHYECKMX JaHHBIX HELOCTATOYHO {Ubi TOF, 4TOGb! MOMEIIb ‘World3 mora denate TOME pacueTbl, Ja HM M1000! Apyroti MoaeAH 9TO HE Tron cHny, B raKoM Ciyuae, "170 [o/le3HOrO MbI MOXKEM Y3HATL H3 PesyALTATOB MOLe~ JIMpoBanin? Tlovemy TexHONOrHH H PHHOK caMH No ceGe He MOY? NPeAOTBPATHTS BbI- ‘xO 3a Mpenensi? Bee MpOBeHCHHBIC paHCc SKCIICPMMCHTEI C MOMEAIO MOXHO OOETHHITE ‘O6INVIM BBIBOZOM: Harpy3ka Ha Cpezy Co CTOpOHE! YesIOReKa CTPEMHTCA BBIiH- ‘TH 34 AOLYCIMMBIC MIPEAeNbL, MB PESY/IbTATe [IPOMcXogAaT COORITHA, KOTOpEIC 246. Taaea 6 TIDHHyAHTeADHO YMeHBIRUOT Harpysky. OGBTHHO TaKCe yMeHBINCHHe CRARAHO ¢ MOHIDKEHMeM 2XHSHCHHDIX CTAHJAPTOB BCICICTBHC HEXBATKH MPOAOBOMILCT- BHA, MEHEINETO KO/MMCCTBA IIPOMBILUICHHEIX TOBAPOB Hi YCIYT & pacueTe Ha Kaxforo yeNoneKa, Gosies BAICOKOTO YPOBHA 3alpasHeHHA B OKpyKaIOWeH cpese. OGbrINaA YSMOBEIeCKAS PeAKLIAA ~- OLEITETECH CHpAaBHTECA ¢ TAKHM TIpHHYAHEHHeM B HAJEKUC TIPOLOICKHTS POCT SKOHOMMKK H YHCICHHOCTA HacexeHHa. Vis inect xe ONcaMX cueHapHen MOxHO H3BIeTb ODMH ypoK: B CAOXHOM, KOHEYHOM MUpe, A@XKe ECNH Bot yMAMHTe OAH Tipenen Hi Mpomon- OXHTC POCT, TO BbI MPOCTO CTONKHETECE C APYTHM Mpedeviom. B ocoGeHHOcTH 370 KACACTCA SKCIOHCHUMAIBHOTO pOCTa: OH CTOAKHETCS ¢ APYTHM Mpesenom oueHb GnicTpo. CymecTeylor ypoBHH mpenenoe. B Momeni World3 wx ecero HECKONBKO. B epeaibHiOM MHpe> HX ropasiio GoAbIe, MpH4eM BCe OHH pas- BIC, CHELM@HECKHE, XAPAKTEPHEIE JLT OAHOTO perHonia H He XapaxkTepHBte AAS Mpyroro. JHU HeMHOTHE Mpele Abi HOCAT IIOHCTHHE MMOGATbHBIA Kapak- Tep — HaNpHMep, HCTOLEHHE O30}10BOTO CIOA HRM H3MeHeHNe ITTHMaTa. Msi npenmonaracm, uTO B «peahHOM MUpe», ecw poct 6yneT Nporol- 2KATECA, TO pasHBI¢ peTHOHl GyAyT HaTATKMBaTECA Ha pazHine npenenet — STO GyaeT MpONcXOgHTL B pasHOM NopamKe HB pasHoe Bpema. Ho nozcioay 91H Ipeacsbl GYLYT NOCACHOBATebHbIMM H MHOXKECTECHHBIMH, HB 9TOM CHTya- ua OyneT noxOxa Ha TY, MTO HaM ToKaswia Mowe World3. OSiuecrBo, Hc~ MLITEIBAIOUIee B KAKOM-AHGO pervoHe HaNpAKeHHe, pacceUIaeT CHTHAMTEL, BOCTIPHHHMaeMbIe MOBCEMECTHO BCTIENCTBHE YCHIARAIOWENICA LOGATH3aLTHH SKOHOMUKH. THoSamHzaliia BOOGILe YBEMTIMBACT BepOsATHOCTh TOTO, ITO PaSHBIe CTpaHEI MHipa, BOBNCUCHHBIC B TOPToBsIC OTHOLICHMA, GymyT CTanKH- ‘BaTECH ¢ NpesenaMu Gonee WAM MCHCe OAHOBPEMCHHO. TIpHpevienHete cueHapyy TakoKe MoKa3bIBaloT, ITO SKOOMTICCKyIO Ha- Tpy3ky MOXKHO YM¢HBLUHTS 3a CUCT PasBHTHs M HCTIOMbSOBAHHA TeEXHONOTHH, KOTOPbIC YMEHbILAIOT NOTPeOHOCTh TIPOMBIILIEHHOCTH Hi CeyIbCKONO XOSAHCT- Ba BOHEprHH H CHpbe. EciH TakHe TEXHONOTHH MPHMeHsOTCH OBCEMeCTHO, OHH TOSBONMOT AOCTHUB GONE BEICOKHX KUSHEHHBIX CTAHAAPTOB TIDH TO! KE SKOAOTHYCCKON Harpy3ke. STO Ta caMad «eMaTepHATHsallMa MmobaTbHOn 2KOHOMHXH, 0 KOTOPOII Tak MHOTO FOBOPAT CcrogHA. Ele ogi ypok COcTOHT B TOM, ¥TO Tem ycneMHee OGMIECTRO Mpeozoe- ‘BAT TIpeesol 3a CHET SKOHOMINMECKOM M TEXHONOIHYeCKOH ananTauMH, TEM BepomtHee OHO CTOAKHETCA C HECKONBKUMM Mpesetamn OAHOBpEMeHHO. B Gombumrctse npororos Monem World3, Bkmovas Te, “To MbI He NpHBO- AMM B KHHIe, MApOBAA CHCTEMA HUKOMa He MCYepILbIBANA TOT HIM HHOii pe- CYPC TOAHOCTBIO— STO KACAeTCA H 3EMENIb, H IPOLOBOMECTBHA, H PECyPCOB, H CMOCOBHOCTH cpeabI MOMMOMaTe 3ArpASHENMA. 3aKAHHABANCH He CaM PecypC, @ ChOCOBHOCT Mupa cnpasumecs ¢ MAMeHMBIIENCA cHtTyanuen. ‘Takaa crocobocrs «cmpaBHTécs> 6 Mogenu World3 mpegctanaera, roso- pa OVeHb YIPOMICHHO, B BHC KONHYeCTBa NPOMBILWICHHOH NpomyKUHH, J0- Texnonoeun, potiok u etaxod 3a upedensi 27 CTYTOM KaKIBTH TOs AA HanpaBeHHs Ha PeWICHHe TeX WH HHBIX TIpoGnem. B apeambHom Mupe> Ha cOCOSHOCTS «crpaBHTECA» BIMAICT MHOXKECTBO APYTHX daxropos: KoNMYCCTRO KBaMpHLMpOBAHHBIX CIeuMaMCTOB; HX MOTHEALIHA; HaIMUHe NOUBITHYeCKOTO BHHMAHHA 1 BOUIM; JOLYCTHMbIit yposcH bHHaHCO- BBIX PUCKOB; COCOGHOCTS PAWIMYHEIK OpraHHG4lMii H MHCTHTYTOB pasBHBATe, PACTIPOCTPAHHTE H BHEJIPATS HOBIE TEXHOMOTHH; IODEKTMBHOCTD YIIPABICHHA; YMeHHe CpeICTB MaCCOBO!I HH(hopMaLIMHT H OMMTHTIECKHX AHIEpOB cocpesoTa- YHRATECA Ha KIIOYeBBIX NpoGMeMax; aMHOAyUIMe HIGUpareNeit B BLIGOpE TIPH- opHTeTos. BaxkHo H TO, HaCKOMbKO AaicKO NOAM 3ATARABAIOT B Oy nytlee HW Ha- CKOIBKO OHH CIOCOOHH TIPCIBHIET MpoGrempr. Bee 31 crocobHoctH co Bpe- MEHEM MOXKHO PasBHTb, 6c OCYLLECTHULATS B ITO MHBECTHIMH. Ho & KaxKabtit KOHKPeTHbI MOMeHT BPeMeHH 3TH clocoOuocTH orpaHMueHbi. On MoryT CTIPABMTLCA HMe@HHOC3THM OOLeMOM. EcmH npodiemtl GysyT HapacTarb 9KCnO- HeHEHaTLHO H pasioo8pastio, To cpasy Co BCEMH CIIPABHTELCA He YAACTCA, MAKE SCT Kaxk/last 13 HX 110 CTEMBHOCTH MOXET GbITh YCTICITTHO peuicHa. Bpema — 370, noxanyi, MocneqHHii mpener B MozenH World3, 1 B «peate- HOM MHpe» TOOKC, MBI B 3TOM YBCpCHH!. Ecam Obl y YeNOBCYCCTRA BPeMCHH SbLIO CKOMBKO YTODHO, TO, 10 HaLICMy MHCHHIO, CIOCOGHOCTS CIPaBIATRCA C npoGemamn Gpvia 6br npaxnmeckH Heorpaninten noi. Poct (m skcroHeHuH- a@tbHbtlt poct — B OcoGEHHOCIH) Tak KOBApeH TOTOMY, WTO BPEMA Ha TIPHHsI- THe 2eHCTREHHLX Mep OrpaHHYcHO, HM YeM AaNbille, TEM OHO MeHBIIe. Harpyska Ha cHCTeMy pacteT Bce 6ricTpee H SLICTpee, M0 TeX Top, MOKa He MpeBbIcHT CnocoOHocTE cnpaBHTEcs. Bo3MoxKHO, Aut Goulee MeAICHHEIX 13- MCHCHHIt 9TOM CHOCOGHOCTH CIN XBATANO, HO B YCTOBHAX YCKOPCHIIA OHA PaHBUle WIK 103xKe OORsaTeABHO MacT choi, Cytecrayereuie Tp npieMMHs, No KOTOpEIM TexHOOrMHt H pEIHONHAT 3KO- HoMika (KOTOPHe PAHBIe BOMHE CrIpABAULIMCh CO CBOUMH 3aAavaMIt) HE MO- TT pewMTs npoGnemal OGulecTBa, HecyLleroca HaBCTpeuy Mipenenam ¢ SKcTIO- HeHLMansHol ckopocTelo, STH MpHYMHEE — eM, PaCKOMb! H SAMaYILIBAHHA ‘Tleppaa MmpHsvHa COCTOHT B TOM, 4TO PETHOK H TEXHOIOTIM — 9TO JIT HHICT- PYMCHTB! BLOCTIOKeHHH Lie. OHH 3aBMICHT OT 3THKH, KOTOPY!O HCToBENyeT O6~ LICCTBO, HI OT BPEMeHHIX TOPUIOHTOB, Ha KOTOPEIe OHO OpveHTHpycres. EcmH OGMIECTBO CTABHT LCHbIO SKCILIYaTMpOBaTS Npupory, OGoralllaTb WIMTy 4 HTHO- PHpobath AONTOEPEMeHHGIe TlepCTIEKTMBbI, TO OHO PasBMBACT TEXHONOTMM Hi Dl- HOUHBIC IPHHUMIBL, KOTOPEIE PASPYUIOT OKPYAAIOLUYIO CpeNy, YBN HHEAOT pasphis Mexay GoraTbiMH 1 GegHbIMH H Npecnezyior TOIBKO KpaTKOCpOTHAE LQ. DakTHYeCKH, TaKOe OGIECTBO PasBHBAeT TEXHOMOTHH H PEIHOK, yoKopAa- JOLIE HACTYIVIEHHE KaTaCTPOWbI, BMECTO TOTO TTOOL MIpeAOTBPATHTE ce. Bropaa npw4Hia — 1 970 craGoeth TexHONOTH — COCTOUT B TOM, 4TO 110- Gxte paspadorkn TpeGylor cpencTs. Zarparst Ha TEXHONOTHIO H PHHOK MOKHO BHIPasHTb B BMIIC PaCXOJOB pecypcoB, 3HeprMy, veHer, Tpyza H karturaa, ITH PaCXOMBI HENHMHeliO pacTyT NO Mepe NIPHOAMKCHHA K NpesenaM, Hf 3TO eUe OUHa [IDPHYMHa HEOXKHUAHHOCTE! B [TOBE CHM CHCTEMBL. 248. Faaca 6 Npegenvuan cromocts, ° 20 40 eo 80 100 ‘Cranene ONMOTKH, % Puc. 6.6. Hennelni pocr pacxonon Ha O4MCTKY O7 JarpasHeHHt Sarpaawtres Bosayxa — oKcHTE a30TA NO — MOKHO HRICKATE 16 FHEPOCOB NO HHSKOH LCHE.JO ON|pene.TeHHOTO SHAYCHMS, ONMAKO AIT BLICOKHX CrerleHeH ONACTKH PACKONsl HATH HaIOT cTpeMmTemvo pact. Kpynaa mpenemtott CTOMMOCTH IRIENeHHst OKCHIOB azoTa NOy paceurrava a 2010 1. aa Opraavzaunn 9koHOMMEHeCKOTO COIpyAHHYECTH K paseirmia Epponter 1 gra Gexsnicx pecmyGniex Copercxoro Cowra B eBpo Ha TOHHY HIBNEKa- eMBX BeusecTE. (Herowannk: IR, Alcamo et al.) Ha pucynkax 3.19 44.7 mer yxe NoKasanll, KaK GbICTpo HatHHaloT pact OGbeMBI OXXOAOB H gaTpaThl SHEprAH Ha HOGbry HEBOZOGHOBMMBKX pecypcos: pu ux HcromteHHut. Ha puc. 6.6 mokazavia elie Oda KPUBaA POCTa PACXOAOB: MpedeAbHad CTOHMOCTS YMEHLIMEHHA BEIGPOCOB Ha TOHHY OKCHMOB a30Ta. ‘Uro6i Mpenorspamtp Nepaete 50% BbIGpocon, cpeteTB HYKHO OTHOCHTEME- HO HeMHoro. UTObbI CHHSHTB 3arpasHeHHA 10 80%, pacxomHl mpwreTcA yRe- JIMYHITS, Ho WX YpOBCH Bcc CLIC 6yseT BIOAHC MpHeMmemErM. OmHaKo Jarb- Ie MbI CTaIKMBaeMCA C Mp¢HeNOM, TOPOTOBEIM 3HaYCHHEM, 34 KOTOPBIM pac- XOUbI Ha LAIbHCHWsee YMCHbLUCHME 3arpASHEHUA CTAHOBFICA HETIOMEPHBIMH. Tlansuetimee paaanrie TexHos10rmit, BOSMOATHO, CABUHET OG KDMBEIE 110 OCH BIpano, cllenaB Gove BbICOKYIO CTeMeHb OUHCTKH MpHemaemol Mo Lene. Bo3sMOKHO, APYTHe TeXHQIOTHM CMOFYT NOAHOCTLIO HCKIDOYHTE BbIGPOC AbI- MOBEIX Ta30B, HO TODA BMECTO 3TOTO MOSBHTCA APYTOH BHA BLIOPoca, KOTO- Pomy 6yzerT cooTBeTcTBOBaTS Apyras KPHBAA CTOHMOCTH OHCTKH. B 1OG0M CHyWae KaMCCTRCHHMM BHIL BCCX STHX KPHBBIX OyseT OMHaKOB. BaxeT pacxo- JOB 10 acTPOHOMHTYeCKMX BEICOT To Mepe NPHEMXeHHE k 100% -Ho oTCT- Ke (TO ect K HYNEBOMY 3arpaSHeHIMO) HMeeT OMeBHAHEIE ¢pUsHYeCKHe MpA- Texnonocun, potuox u euexod sa npedenot 249 MMHBL. PocT uvcra AbIMOBRIX Tpy6 Ha 3aBOax H BEDUIOMHBIX Tpy6 Ha TpaHC- Topte rapaHTupyet, 470 pacxonsl GymyT NowsiuaTbca. MoxcT G8ITB, HaM OKA- -K€TCH To CpeNICTBaM YMCHEMEATE BHOPOCE BABOC B pacueTe Ha KAXKIEIM aBTO- mo6wi. Ho eciH “HCHO aBTOMOGHNel yaBOHTCH, TO YTOGBI TOWuepKATE Mpexiee KaYECTBO HOSIYXA, BEIGPOCH MPHIeTCA CHHSHTb elle B ABA pasa, YMeHbUICHHe 3arpAgHeHHA BUDOE, MIpOBeNCHHOS eA pasa, — STO OLHCTKA Ha 75%; MpoBedaeHHoe TpH pasa — 87,5%. B kaKOli-To MOMeHT 3KOHOMHKa YKE HE CMOXKCT BKIAIBIBAT CTOTbKO CPeACTB, YTOORI JOOMTECH OUCPSHHOTO YECIVMCHMA CTeMCHH ONMCTKH. Pocr TIPHBCJCT SKOHOMUKY MO HENMHCHHOH 3aBMCHMOCTM K TOW TONKS, KOrTa Aaitb- HOMLUCe YBCAHYCHHE CIEIICHM OFCTKH CFAHET IKOHOMHYECKH HEBOSMOOKHEIM — ugha Oyler CAHLIKOM BbICOKa, 3upaBOMbICUUWee OGWECTHO, JOCTHTHYB 3TOH ‘TOUKY, MepecTaeT PACUIMPATS COOTBETCTBYIOMIY10 JEATENEHOCTL, TOCKOMLKY ITO Gonbille He MPHBeAT k YRETHYCHHIO GrarococTomHHa HaceseHHa. ‘Tperba mpwitna TOTO, TO TeXHOMOTHET H PHIHOK cAMH TIO CeGe He MOTyT peIHIT, MpoGKeMst, COCTOUT B TOM, ITO Hx JeATEMbHOCTS ONpeneMACTeA KOH- TypaMH O6paTHHX CBASCH, MHopMauia B KOTOpbIX To_BepxcHA Jalla3ObIBAHMO i MCKAXKCHHAM. 3ana3ablRaHHe OTKIMKOB pEIHKa M TEXHON0- mit Moxer Gerrb FOpAsILO MPOAOADKMTEABHEE, TEM 3TOTO OAAIOT IKOHOMH- MeCkHe TEODHH WIM MBIGICHHBIC Moe. Korrypb! o6parHbx cBazel «pbl- HOK — TeXHONOTHH> CaMH No ceGe ABAMOTCA HCTOTHUKOM BEIXOfla 3a Mpese- TTL, KoeGaHHA H HecTaGWIBHOCTH. OAKH K3 MpHMepon TaKOH HecTaGHTBHO- CTH (npwuem HecTa6wmBHocTH, oTpasMBiticiica Ha BCeM MHpe) — KoeGaHita HCH Ha HeTs B TeveHMe JcerTureTuii Mocne Kpusuica 1973 r. Npumep Hecosepwenctaa pbinka: koneSanna Ha HE@TAHOM pBIHKe TipHunu

You might also like