Homicide Studies

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Lifestyle, Routine Activities, and Felony-Related Eldercide

Aki Roberts and Dale Willits
Homicide Studies 2013 17: 184 originally published online 28 February 2012
DOI: 10.1177/1088767912438713

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8713Roberts and WillitsHomicide Studies
HSX17210.1177/108876791243

Article
Homicide Studies

Lifestyle, Routine Activities, 17(2) 184­–203

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DOI: 10.1177/1088767912438713
Eldercide hs.sagepub.com

Aki Roberts1 and Dale Willits1

Abstract
The overrepresentation of felony-related incidents is a distinctive and interesting
feature of eldercide.The current study examines the relationship between macro-level
elderly-specific lifestyle and routine daily activity measures and felony-related eldercide
in 195 American cities. Results from a negative binomial log-rate model indicate that
the percentages of older adults living alone and with disability and the robbery rate
(a proxy for exposure to felony-related eldercide) were positively associated with
rates of felony-related eldercide. The relationship between the percentage of older
adults not working and felony-related eldercide rates was also statistically significant
but in an unexpected negative direction.

Keywords
eldercide, elderly, older adults, negative binomial, routine activity, SHR

Introduction
Despite high fear of crime among older adults (Smith & Torstensson, 1997; Weinrath
& Gartrell, 1996; Yin, 1980), previous studies have consistently shown that older
adults’ risk of homicide victimization is much less compared to younger groups (e.g.,
Bachman & Meloy, 2008; Copeland, 1986; Fox & Levin, 1991; Nelsen & Huff-
Corzine, 1998; Riedel, Zahn, & Mock, 1985). Using 1976 to 1985 Supplementary
Homicide Reports (SHR) data, Fox and Levin found that the rate of homicide against
people aged 65 and more was less than half of the rate against younger people, and
more recent figures show a similar picture: In 2005, there were 1.73 homicides per

1
University of New Mexico–Albuquerque, Albuquerque, NM, USA

Corresponding Author:
Aki Roberts, Department of Sociology MSC05 3080 University of New Mexico Albuquerque,
Albuquerque, NM 87113, USA.
Email: akit116@unm.edu

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Roberts and Willits 185

100,000 population among those aged 65 and older compared to 5.40 per 100,000
population among those 64 and younger (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2005).
Eldercides are relatively rare events, constituting in 2005 only 4.3% of all homicides
in which victim’s age was recorded (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2005). However,
they are likely to become more frequent in absolute terms, and represent a greater
share of all homicides, as aging baby boomers create a much larger population of
older adults in the United States (Collins & Presnell, 2006; Krienert & Walsh, 2010;
Weaver, Martin, & Petee, 2004). The proportion of persons aged 65 and older is pro-
jected to grow from the current (2005) 12% to about 20% in 2025 (U.S. Census
Bureau, 2005). The result will likely be increasing prominence of eldercide, and
police responses to this emerging social problem will require better understanding of
this crime’s correlates.
Previous researchers have pointed out that a distinctive and interesting feature of
homicide against older adults is the overrepresentation of felony-related incidents. In
the younger population, a large proportion of homicide occurs in the context of argu-
ments or fights between family members, intimates, or friends. In contrast, older adults
are more often killed during the course of a felony, such as robbery, burglary, theft, and
rape, than in an argument (Copeland, 1986; Fox & Levin, 1991; Kennedy & Silverman,
1990; Maxfield, 1989). Based on lifestyle/exposure and routine activities perspec-
tives, previous scholars have explained that conditions of failing health, inactivity, and
social isolation might decrease older adults’ risk of conflict homicide by reducing the
frequency and intensity of arguments with others. However, those same lifestyle and
routine activities specific to older adults may increase the risk of felony-related homi-
cides by decreasing guardianship, and hence, increasing target attractiveness (Fox &
Levin, 1991; Kennedy & Silverman, 1990; Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998; Weaver
et al., 2004). Using city-level aggregated data from Fox and Swatt’s (2007) imputed
SHR, the current article examines the association between macro-level elderly life-
style and routine activity measures and felony-related eldercide rates. Furthermore, to
check the specificity of results for felony-related eldercide, we apply the same model
to data on rates of argument-related eldercide.

Lifestyle/Exposure and Routine Activities Perspectives

Traditional theories of crime mainly focus on offenders’ criminality or criminal
disposition—why certain individuals are more prone than others to commit crime—as
a cause of crime (Clarke & Felson, 2008; Eck & Weisburd, 1995). Lifestyle/exposure
and routine activities perspectives instead focus on victims’ lifestyles or routine daily
activities and how these provide opportunities for different kinds of crime victimiza-
tion to occur (Cohen & Felson, 1979; Hindelang, Gottfredson, & Garofalo, 1978).
According to Hindelang et al.’s lifestyle/exposure perspective, an individual’s demo-
graphic and socioeconomic status (e.g., age, sex, race/ethnicity, marital status, and
income) influence his or her lifestyle and everyday routine activities, in turn increasing
his or her exposure to high-risk situations potentially leading to crime victimization.

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186 Homicide Studies 17(2)

Similarly, the lifestyle/exposure perspective suggests that aggregate lifestyle charac-

teristics of sociodemographic groups lead to different victimization rates among these
groups (Hindelang et al., 1978).
The routine activities perspective argues that the necessary conditions for criminal
victimization to occur are the presence of an offender inclined and able to carry out the
offense, a suitable target for the offense, and a lack of guardians against the offense. In
practice, this approach has focused more on the latter two elements, while simply
assuming a constant flow of motivated and capable offenders (Cohen & Felson, 1979).
Offenders assess the suitability of targets based on factors such as value, accessibility,
and ease of establishing physical control. Guardianship primarily stems from informal
protection of potential crime targets by citizens, including the target and his or her
family members, intimates, housemates, friends, and neighbors, rather than formal
protection by the police (Cohen & Felson, 1979). The routine activities perspective
argues that structural change in people’s everyday activities and lifestyles can “influ-
ence crime rates by affecting the convergence in space and time” of those key compo-
nents of criminal victimization (Cohen & Felson, 1979, p. 589). For example, this
approach argues that increasing activities away from home (e.g., increased female
labor force participation, school attendance, out-of-town travel, and leisure activities)
and the growing popularity of expensive portable goods were responsible for the
increase in burglary rates that most industrialized countries experienced during the
post–World War II era. As households were more often unguarded, with more attrac-
tive objects to steal, more became suitable targets (Felson & Clarke, 1998).
Lifestyle and routine activity perspectives are compatible (Garofalo, 1987;
Maxfield, 1987) and both suggest that lifestyles or routine activities specific to a par-
ticular group can explain the criminal victimization pattern of its members (Cohen &
Felson, 1979; Hindelang et al., 1978). Certainly, older adults in the United States are
diverse in health, physical activity, and lifestyle characteristics, but the inevitable
changes associated with aging make older adults’ lifestyle and daily activities distinct
from those of younger groups (Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998). In the next section, we
explore elderly homicide victimization patterns and the role of the elderly population’s
characteristic lifestyles and routine daily activities.

Lifestyle and Routine Activities Perspectives,

and Homicide Against Older Adults
As noted previously, studies consistently show much lower overall homicide victim-
ization rates among older adults than among younger persons (e.g., Abrams, Leon,
Tardiff, Marzuk, & Sutherland, 2007; Fox & Levin, 1991; Nelsen & Huff-Corzine,
1998; Riedel et al., 1985). Also, by examining homicide victimization rates disaggre-
gated by different circumstances, previous studies found that although arguments with
family members, intimates, or friends represent the most common circumstance sur-
rounding homicides against younger victims, this is not the case for elderly victims
(Ahmed & Menzies, 2002; Fox & Levin, 1991). According to lifestyle/exposure and

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Roberts and Willits 187

routine activities perspectives, the different lifestyle and routine daily activities asso-
ciated with aging contribute to lower overall homicide victimization, especially in the
argument context.
The natural aging process means that older adults are more likely than younger peo-
ple to suffer from various physical and cognitive impairments (Nelsen & Huff-Corzine,
1998). In 2000, 42% of the population aged 65 and older suffered from physical, men-
tal, sensory, self-care, or go-outside-home disability that interfered with daily activities,
compared to only 16% of the population younger than 65 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2005).
Studies have also found that older adults with disabilities avoid activities outside of
their homes and become socially isolated (Hawkley et al., 2008; Hawthorne, 2008;
Stoller, 1984). In addition to failing physical and mental health, older adults’ tendency
to live alone worsens social isolation (Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998). In 2000, 30% of
persons aged 65 and more lived alone, whereas only 8% of persons younger than 65 did
(U.S. Census Bureau, 2005). Substantial fear of crime among older adults further con-
tributes to social isolation. Despite older Americans’ lower overall victimization rate,
fear of crime is a greater concern for older adults (e.g., Smith & Torstensson, 1997;
Weinrath & Gartrell, 1996; Yin, 1980). As a precautionary strategy against criminal
victimization, many older adults avoid leaving home unless absolutely necessary
(Miethe, Stafford, & Sloane, 1990; Payne & Gainey, 2006).
This kind of social isolation and inactivity can have many negative effects on older
adults’ quality of life. In fact, some studies have shown that social isolation and home
confinement may affect, as well as be affected by, health (e.g., Cornwell & Waite,
2009; Tomaka, Thompson, & Palacios, 2006). However, socially isolated and inactive
lifestyles may be beneficial in one respect by decreasing the risk of argument-related
eldercide. Older adults’ involvement in violent quarrels is already much lower than is
the case for their younger counterparts because their intimates, friends, and associates
are likely to be older and less volatile (Fox & Levin, 1991). By reducing interaction
with others, especially strangers in public places (e.g., streets, sporting events, bars),
social isolation and inactivity among older adults further reduces exposure to argu-
ments and fights that are classic precursors to homicide (Fox & Levin, 1991; Kennedy
& Silverman, 1990; Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998). As a consequence, the proportion
of elderly homicides that are argument related is smaller than that of homicides with
younger adult victims.
In a lifestyle characterized by impairment, inactivity, and social isolation, the main
homicide risk stems from being targeted by a stranger as a felony victim in one’s own
home (Abrams et al., 2007; Copeland, 1986; Kennedy & Silverman, 1990; Nelsen &
Huff-Corzine, 1998). Frail and socially isolated older adults are poorly guarded by
themselves and others and, thus, will be perceived as attractive and easy targets by
potential felony, especially robbery, offenders (Fox & Levin, 1991; Kennedy &
Silverman, 1990; Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998; Weaver et al., 2004). Elderly victims
are also more obedient during the course of crime incidents. Klaus (2005) estimated
from 1993-2002 National Crime Victimization Survey data that only about half of
elderly victims of violent attacks resist their offenders, compared to more than 70% of

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188 Homicide Studies 17(2)

younger attack victims. A general belief that older people are wealthier and own more
material goods will also contribute to their attractiveness as targets of theft-related
felonies (Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998). Inactive and home-confined older adults liv-
ing in low daytime occupancy areas are especially at risk for felony-related homi-
cide (Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998). Elderly residents in such areas lack informal
protection by neighbors and will thus be perceived by property offenders as easy
marks. Moreover, offenders prowling low daytime occupancy areas might not expect
the presence of elderly residents in targeted homes. When unexpected encounters
occur, offenders’ general perception of older adults’ weakness makes them more likely
to attack (and kill) older residents instead of fleeing the scene (Conklin, 1976; Nelsen
& Huff-Corzine, 1998).
Older persons’ poor health condition, impairment, and/or lack of resiliency may also
contribute to a higher likelihood that a felony incident becomes a homicide. Older adults
are more likely than younger people to die from injuries incurred in crime victimization
(Abrams et al., 2007; Chu & Kraus, 2004; Faggiani & Owens, 1999; Hirschel & Rubin,
1982; Kennedy & Silverman, 1990; Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998). Chu and Kraus’s
analysis of National Incident-Based Reporting System data found that even after con-
trolling for firearm use and other factors that may influence injury severity, persons aged
65 and older are more likely than younger victims to die during any sort of assaultive
attack. Furthermore, a lethal outcome for elderly victims is much more likely during
felony-related than during argument-related assaults (Chu & Kraus, 2004).

Previous Studies on Felony-Related Eldercide

Consistent with the argument of lifestyle/exposure and routine activity perspectives,
descriptive studies have found that the proportion of homicides that are felony
related increases for older (especially those older than 65) victims. According to Fox
and Levin, in 1976-1985, SHR data the proportion of felony-related homicide was
21.8% for victims aged less than 50 years but increased to 34.4% for victims aged
50 to 64 years and 55.5% for victims aged 65 and older. Among felony-related elder-
cides, the most common circumstance was robbery, followed by other felony, bur-
glary, and rape (Fox & Levin, 1991). Focusing on U.S. metropolitan areas, Maxfield
(1989) also found that older adults are disproportionately victimized in instrumental
homicides, mostly involving theft-related offenses. Bachman and Meloy (2008)
found similar results to Fox and Levin, and Maxfield, in a longer span (1976-2004)
of SHR data, indicating the consistency of these attributes of eldercide over time.
The older adults’ tendency to be victimized in felony-related homicides also has been
shown in various U.S. localities (Collins & Presnell, 2006; Copeland, 1986; Keil &
Vito, 1991; Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998) and in Canada (Ahmed & Menzies, 2002;
Kennedy & Silverman, 1990).
A few studies have used multivariate analyses to explore the homicide victimiza-
tion patterns of older adults. Kennedy and Silverman’s (1990) analysis of incident-
level Canadian homicide data showed that the odds that a homicide is theft related are

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Roberts and Willits 189

higher for elderly than for younger victims, even after controlling for the age of
offender, victim–offender relationship, location of the incident, gender of the victim,
and method of attack. Using homicide data from Kentucky between 1976 and 1986,
Keil and Vito (1991) examined the relationship between victim’s age and seriousness
of homicide. One seriousness measure was presence of a concurrent felony offense.
Keil and Vito found that an elderly victim’s homicide was more likely to be felony
related than a younger victim’s, controlling for other incident characteristics, includ-
ing victim–offender relationship and racial combination.
Nelsen and Huff-Corzine also examined the influence of victim’s age on type of
homicide (theft-related, conflict, and unknown circumstance) in incident-level homi-
cide data from Chicago between 1965 and 1981. As in the analyses by Kennedy and
Silverman and by Keil and Vito, Nelsen and Huff-Corzine also included other incident
characteristics such as victim’s sex, victim–offender relationship, weapon type, and
location of the homicide incident. Their multinomial logistic regression results indi-
cated that the risk that a homicide was theft related rather than argument related
increased with victim’s age. Kennedy and Silverman and Nelsen and Huff-Corzine
explained the older adults’ tendency for homicides to be theft related as stemming
from the fact that elderly people’s lifestyle and routine daily activities are more often
characterized by inactivity and social isolation than are younger people’s. However,
these models (Keil & Vito, 1991; Kennedy & Silverman, 1990; Nelsen & Huff-
Corzine, 1998) of eldercide patterns did not include any direct measures of lifestyle
and routine activities (e.g., living arrangement, employment and marital status, pres-
ence or absence of disability), so this explanation could not be explicitly tested.
Weaver et al.’s (2004) study explored the association between a macro-level mea-
sure of the elderly population’s lifestyle/routine daily activities (the percentage of
older adults living alone) and county-level eldercide rates. Weaver et al. found that the
percentage of older adults living alone did not have the significant association with
eldercide rates that would be expected by lifestyle/routine activities perspectives. The
absence of such an effect of the percentage of older adults living alone may be due to
the use of a combined eldercide measure as the dependent variable, rather than one in
which eldercide rates were disaggregated by circumstance. As discussed earlier, the
social isolation inherent in living alone is expected to decrease exposure to argument-
related eldercide but increase exposure to felony-related eldercide. The combined
eldercide measure may, therefore, show no association with the isolation measure.

Current Study
Even though the homicide victimization rate among older adults is much lower than
that among nonelderly persons, continuing elderly population growth will almost
certainly increase the absolute number of elderly homicide victimizations (Collins &
Presnell, 2006; Krienert & Walsh, 2010; Weaver et al., 2004). Also, the various
descriptive and multivariate studies discussed earlier indicate that the circumstance of
elderly victimizations is more likely to be felony related than is the case for younger

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190 Homicide Studies 17(2)

persons’ victimizations. This suggests that more research attention be directed toward
understanding felony-related eldercide.
Lifestyle/exposure and routine activities perspectives suggest that older adults
whose lifestyle and routine activities are characterized by physical and cognitive
impairment, inactivity, and social isolation face increased risk of felony-related homi-
cide victimization. Although this and related issues have been studied by researchers,
there is still room for substantive extensions to the existing empirical literature. Most
previous studies on felony-related eldercide are descriptive, and although the few
incident-level multivariate studies that examined victim’s age and risk of felony-
related homicides (Keil & Vito, 1991; Kennedy & Silverman, 1990; Nelsen & Huff-
Corzine, 1998) explained findings of the older adults’ tendency toward felony-related
homicide victimization by their isolated lifestyles and inactivity, those analyses did
not include direct measures of lifestyles or routine activities. Weaver et al.’s (2004)
macro-level work not only used a more direct measure of the older adults’ lifestyle and
routine activities (the proportion of older adults living alone); it also used the total
eldercide rates as the dependent variable and, therefore, did not specifically explore
felony-related eldercide.
The current study explores the relationship between a more comprehensive list of
macro-level elderly impairment, inactivity, and social isolation measures and felony-
related eldercide in relatively large U.S. cities. We adopt Weaver et al.’s (2004) interest
in macro-level eldercide rates and lifestyle and routine activity measures, while also
following Kennedy and Silverman (1990), Keil and Vito (1991), and Nelsen and Huff-
Corzine’s (1998) focus on felony-related eldercide. Following the emphasis of life-
style and routine activity perspectives on crime-specific relationships (Clarke &
Felson, 2008), we investigate the specificity of independent variables’ associations
with felony-related eldercide by applying the same model to data on argument-related
eldercide rates.

Data and Methods

Data

We used a subset of Fox and Swatt’s (2007) imputed SHR file to obtain data on cir-
cumstance-specific elderly homicide victimization. Like other official data, the regular
SHR data are subject to item-missing (when some requested information—
demographic characteristics of victim and offender, victim–offender relationship,
circumstance, and so on—is missing in a recorded homicide incident) and unit-miss-
ing (when some homicides are not reported by police agencies and are therefore
unrecorded) problems. Discarding item-missing incidents or ignoring unit-missing
incidents would waste potential information and, because in crime research data are
highly unlikely to be missing completely at random, potentially bias results (Riedel &
Regoeczi, 2004). Fox and Swatt created an SHR file containing data from 1976 to
2007 that attempts to address these problems. Fox and Swatt (2007, 2009) address

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Roberts and Willits 191

item missingness with a Bayesian Imputation Posterior multiple imputation method,

using data from SHR variables that were not or only infrequently missing as indepen-
dent variables in a log-linear model to predict values for the SHR variables that tend
to be missing. Multiple draws from the resulting posterior distribution give multiple
imputations for a particular missing value (used to create multiple imputed data sets).
Unit missing data were addressed by a weighting routine that utilized information
from both the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) and National Center for Health Statistics
(NCHS) to impute the number of homicides for each unit (agency). Fox and Swatt
(2009) present additional information on these imputation procedures and provide a
validity check that suggests that these data provide a useful solution to missing SHR
data.
The data set provides five imputed data sets. Using the 2000-2005 portion of Fox
and Swatt’s (2007) data sets,1 we calculated the number of felony- and argument-
related eldercides for each city in each of the five imputed data sets. In Fox and Swatt’s
imputed data, “felony” includes rape, robbery, burglary, larceny, auto theft, arson,
prostitution, other sex offense, narcotics laws, gambling, other felony, and abortion.
“Argument” included lover’s triangle, killed by babysitter, brawl under alcohol or
alcohol, argument over money, and other arguments (M. Swatt, personal communica-
tion, July 26, 2011). Of course, abortion and killed by babysitter are not relevant to
eldercide. Also, no eldercide incidents were associated with gambling in the 2000-
2005 data.
The resulting five city-level eldercide data sets were then linked to 2000 Census
and 2000 Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics data to obtain
measures of the independent variables. To ensure comparability of data from these
sources, analysis was restricted to city jurisdictions with populations 100,000 or more
in 2000. The final sample consisted of 195 cities with an average population of
337,056, a minimum population of 100,316, and a maximum population of 8,008,278;
the complete list of cities can be provided upon request.

Negative Binomial Regression

Due to the rare nature of eldercide, especially when disaggregated by crime circum-
stances, we maintained our dependent variable as a count variable. Count variables
are ill-suited for OLS (ordinary least square) regression and are typically examined
using count-specific techniques such as Poisson or negative binomial regression
(Osgood, 2000). Preliminary analysis via likelihood ratio tests comparing equivalent
Poisson and negative binomial regression models indicated that the eldercide count
data were overdispersed. Overdispersion (excess variance) violates a key assumption
of Poisson regression, and in such cases, the negative binomial regression model, with
an additional parameter to account for overdispersion, is typically preferred (Osgood,
2000). All models use the natural log of city noninstitutionalized population 65 and
older as the offset or exposure variable, thereby controlling for population at risk and

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192 Homicide Studies 17(2)

permitting interpretation of the negative binomial regression as a log-rate model

(Osgood, 2000).
As mentioned earlier, we constructed five city-level data sets originating from Fox
and Swatt’s (2007) five imputed incident-level SHR files. Negative binomial regres-
sion results from the five data sets were combined in SAS PROC MIANALYZE.
Reported estimates reflect averages across the five data sets, and estimated standard
errors include variability across the five data sets (from the multiple imputation pro-
cess) as well as the usual uncertainty in parameter estimates.

Dependent Variables
Dependent variables for the current analysis are counts of felony- and argument-
related homicides against the population aged 65 and older. As discussed earlier, we
aggregated the 2000-2005 portion of Fox and Swatt’s (2007) imputed SHR data to
obtain city-level counts of eldercide for different circumstances. Note that this means
that negative binomial regression coefficients refer to 5-year rather than 1-year elder-
cide rates.

Independent Variables
Macro-level indicators of elderly lifestyle/exposure or routine daily activities charac-
terized by impairment, inactivity, and social isolation were each city’s percentages of
older adults living alone, with disability, and not working. The percentages of older
adults living alone, with disability, and not employed were based on the number of
persons aged 65 and older living alone (in households); the number of noninstitution-
alized persons aged 65 and older with physical, sensory, and/or mental disabilities;
and the number of persons 65 and older who are not employed, respectively. Each
figure was divided by the total noninstitutionalized population aged 65 and older and
multiplied by 100. Cities with high percentages of older adults living alone, with dis-
ability, and not working will have high levels of social isolation, impairment, and
inactivity among older adults, creating greater opportunity for felony-related elder-
cide. On the other hand, high levels of inactivity and social isolation should decrease
argument-related eldercide by limiting older adults’ interaction with others, thereby
limiting their overall exposure to situations at risk for arguments that could lead to
violence (Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998; Weaver et al., 2004).
In addition to impairment, inactivity, and social isolation measures, we also
included two opportunity variables specific to felony-related eldercide: daytime non-
occupancy and robbery rate. According to Nelsen and Huff-Corzine (1998), areas with
high daytime nonoccupancy create high-risk situations for felony-related eldercide,
especially in the context of offenders surprising robbery and burglary victims. The
2000 Census does not provide a comprehensive daytime occupancy measure. However,
we were able to construct one as follows. For family households, we found the number
of family households in which both husband and wife worked. For nonfamily

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Roberts and Willits 193

households,2 a daytime nonoccupancy total was estimated as the number of nonfamily

households times the proportion of the population that is working (either in the armed
forces or employed in the civilian labor force). Then an overall daytime nonoccupancy
rate was calculated by dividing the number of family and (estimated) nonfamily
households unoccupied during the daytime by the total number of households, times
100. We expect that daytime nonoccupancy is positively associated with felony-related
eldercide rates but has no association with argument-related eldercide rates.
Following Weaver et al., the current analysis also included robbery rate (for all
ages) per 100,000 population as a proxy for exposure to the possibility of felony-
related eldercide. Robbery is the main circumstance surrounding felony-related
eldercide (Copeland, 1986; Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998; Weaver et al., 2004).3
Studies (e.g., Conklin, 1976; Gregory & McCabe, 1998) also have found a higher rob-
bery victimization rate among older adults than among younger age groups. We expect
that the overall robbery rate has a positive association with felony-related eldercide
but no association with argument-related eldercide.
To assess the likely offender pool unique to felony-related eldercide, we explored the
typical eldercide offender’s age. Fox and Swatt’s (2007) missing data imputation gave
offender’s age in intervals (younger than 18, aged between 18 and 24, 25 and 34, 35 and
49, and aged 50 and older) rather than precise figures. In our sample of 195 cities, the
largest share (29%) of felony-related eldercide was committed by offenders aged 35 to
49, followed by those between the ages of 18 and 24 (26%) and those between 25 and 34
(25%). Offenders from the youngest (younger than 18) and oldest (50 and older) groups
committed much smaller proportions of felony-related eldercide (7% and 13%, respec-
tively). Adjusting these proportions for the age group sizes, the 18 to 24 age group had
the highest eldercide offending rate (1.87 per 100,000), followed by those younger than
18 (1.48 per 100,000 when using the 15- to 17-year-old population size), aged between
25 and 34 (1.24 per 100,000), aged between 35 and 49 (1.08 per 100,000), and aged 50
and older (0.47 per 100,000). We, therefore, included the proportion of a city’s popula-
tion aged 18 to 24 as a measure of the likely offender pool. We expect that this measure
of likely offender pool is positively associated with felony-related, but not argument-
related, eldercide rates. Unlike for felony-related homicides, the 50 and older age group
had the largest share (34%) of offenders for argument-related eldercide. Because
argument-related homicide does not involve the same sort of target selection as felony-
related homicide, most conflict-related homicides are committed by intimates, friends,
and associates who are close in age to the victim (Fox & Levin, 1991). Finally, we
included logged total (all ages) city population as a control variable. Information needed
to calculate all independent variables except for the robbery rate was taken from the
2000 Census. Data for robbery rate was derived from 2000 Uniform Crime Reports. The
Appendix gives descriptive statistics for all variables.

Results
Before discussing the negative binomial regression results, we first describe our data
on different types of homicide by victim’s age.

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194 Homicide Studies 17(2)

Table 1. Frequencies and Percentages of Felony, Argument, and Other Homicides by Victim’s
Age Group for 195 Cities With Population 100,000 and More.

Circumstance

Total column
Victim’s age group Felony, n (%) Argument, n (%) Other, n (%) Total percentage
<14 222 (11.4) 366 (18.9) 1,352 (69.6) 1,940 4.2
14-17 455 (18.7) 877 (36.0) 1,104 (45.3) 2,436 5.3
18-24 3,128 (23.4) 5,725 (42.9) 4,492 (33.7) 13,345 29.2
25-34 3,512 (26.9) 6,459 (49.6) 3,062 (23.5) 13,033 28.5
35-49 3,189 (31.2) 5,135 (50.2) 1,910 (18.7) 10,234 22.4
50-64 1,140 (34.3) 1,584 (47.6) 601 (18.1) 3,325 7.3
65 and older 546 (39.2) 519 (37.3) 326 (23.4) 1,391 3.0
Total 12,192 20,665 12,847 45,704 100
Note: N = 45,704. Row percentages in parentheses. Figures reflect averages across the five imputed data
sets.

Table 1 indicates the average frequency and percentage of felony-related, argument-

related, and other homicide by age group in the five imputed data sets. (We included
“other” homicides in Table 1, but the “other” category involves very heterogeneous
circumstances such as gang killing, youth gang killing, sniper attacks, institutional
killing, other, and suspected felony.4 This gives the “other” category less theoretical
interest, and we do not present multivariate models for it.) The figures support the
consensus that older adults are less likely than younger age groups to be homicide
victims (Fox & Levin, 1991; Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998). In 2000-2005 people
aged 65 and older were 11% of the total population of cities with population 100,000
and more, but made up only 3% of total homicide victims. Table 2 also indicates that
the proportion of felony-related homicide increases with victim’s age. For younger
victims, argument was the dominant circumstance, but felony (39.2%) was slightly
more frequent than argument (37.3%) for elderly victims.5
Table 2 shows results of negative binomial log-rate models for felony- and
argument-related eldercide. Variance inflation factor scores for all independent vari-
ables were less than 4 and indicated no substantial multicollinearity problems among
the independent variables (Menard, 1995) for all models in Table 2.
The first two columns of Table 2 give results for felony-related eldercide. Among
social isolation and inactivity measures, percentages of older adults living alone and
with disability were significantly and, as expected, positively associated with felony-
related eldercide rates, net of other factors in the model. In the log-rate model, eb is the
multiplicative effect6 on the expected rate. As the percentage of older adults living
alone increased by 5, the expected rate of felony-related eldercide increased almost
20%.7 The expected rate of felony-related eldercide increased 64% for each additional
5% of older adults with disability. The association between older adults not employed
and felony-related eldercide was also statistically significant but in the unexpected

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Roberts and Willits 195

Table 2. Coefficients for Negative Binomial Log-rate Models: Felony- and Argument-related
Eldercide.

Felony related Argument related

B eb B eb
Older adults .034 (.019)* 1.035 −.006 (.016) 0.994
living alone
Older adults with .099 (.028)** 1.104 .097 (.026)** 1.102
disability
Older adults not −.109 (.043)** 0.897 −.077 (.038)* 0.926
working
Daytime −.027 (.025) 0.973 .004 (.022) 1.004
nonoccupancy
Robbery rate .0011 (.0005)* 1.001 .0011 (.0004)** 1.001
Population aged −.030 (.031) 0.970 −.047 (.030) 0.954
18 to 24
Logged total .022 (.090) 1.022 −.029 (.080) 0.971
population
Note: N = 195. Standard errors are reported in parentheses.
*p < .05. **p < .01 (one-tailed).

negative direction. A 1 percentage point increase in older adults not working was asso-
ciated with a 10.3% reduction in the expected rate of felony-related eldercide.
Robbery rates were significantly and positively associated with felony-related
eldercide rates, supporting the view that frequent robbery incidents create high risk for
felony-related homicide among older adults (Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998; Weaver
et al., 2004). The expected rate of felony-related eldercide increased 3.4% with an
increase of 30 per 100,000 in the robbery rate. Daytime nonoccupancy, the likely
offender pool, and logged total population were not significantly associated with
felony-related eldercide rates.
To check the specificity of the associations between felony-related eldercide and
social isolation and inactivity variables, we applied the same model to argument-
related eldercide. Following previous researchers (e.g., Fox & Levin, 1991; Kennedy
& Silverman, 1990; Nelsen & Huff-Corzine, 1998), we expected social isolation and
inactivity measures (percentages of older adults living alone, with disability, and not
working) to have negative associations with argument-related eldercide. Other vari-
ables specific to felony-related eldercide opportunity (daytime nonoccupancy, likely
offender pool, and robbery rate) were expected to have no association with argument-
related eldercide. The latter two columns of Table 2 show results for argument-related
eldercide. Unlike the findings for felony-related eldercide, the relationship between
percentage of older adults living alone and argument-related eldercide rates was not
statistically significant. The significance of the percentage of older adults living alone
is therefore unique to felony-related eldercide.

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196 Homicide Studies 17(2)

For other variables, results (statistical significance and direction) were similar for
argument- and felony-related eldercide. As with felony-related eldercide, the percentage
of older adults with disability had a significant and positive relationship with argument-
related eldercide. This result was unexpected, as we hypothesized that social isolation
and inactivity indicated by high percentage of older adults with disability should
decrease argument-related eldercide by reducing exposure to confrontations with oth-
ers. The percentage of older adults not employed was significantly and negatively
associated with both types of eldercide. Although it was expected to influence only
felony-related eldercide, robbery rate was also significantly and positively related to
argument-related eldercide. These results are consistent with Weaver et al.’s (2004)
finding of a statistically significant association between robbery rate and total elder-
cide. Note too that the sizes of those variables’ effects were similar for felony- and
argument-related eldercide rates. As expected, daytime nonoccupancy and likely
offender pool, both theoretically specific to felony-related eldercide, were not signifi-
cantly related to argument-related eldercide. As those two variables were also unre-
lated to felony-related eldercide rates, percentage of older adults living alone is the
only one of these variables associated specifically with felony-related eldercide.

Discussion and Conclusion

The current study explored the relationship between city-level measures of elderly
social isolation and inactivity and felony-related eldercide rates. Based on lifestyle
and routine activity perspectives, previous researchers posited that socially isolated
and inactive lifestyles make the older adults as a group vulnerable to felony-related
homicide (Fox & Levin, 1991; Kennedy & Silverman, 1990; Nelsen & Huff-Corzine,
1998; Weaver et al., 2004). Therefore, we expected social isolation and inactivity
measures (percentages of older adults living alone, with disability, and not working)
to be positively related to felony-related eldercide rates. Negative binomial log-rate
model results indicated that two measures of social isolation and inactivity, the per-
centage of older adults living alone and with disability, were significantly related to
felony-related eldercide in the expected positive direction.
The significance of the percentage of older adults living alone was specific to felony-
related eldercide. This, along with the nonsignificant effect of that variable on overall
eldercide in Weaver et al. (2004), shows the importance of disaggregating eldercides
by circumstance. On the other hand, the percentage of older adults with disability was
positively related to both felony- and argument-related eldercide rates. This result
might be explained by the likely need for daily activity assistance among the impaired
elderly population. Although in some cases this assistance would be given by an
elderly spouse or sibling, children or many hired caregivers would be younger and
potentially volatile. The difficulty and stress of caring for a disabled elderly person
might lead to arguments involving violence. This reasoning suggests that it is at least
plausible that a greater percentage of impairment in the elderly population could
increase argument-related eldercide by increasing interaction with a younger popula-
tion of caregivers. At the same time, home confinement, frailness, and lack of

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Roberts and Willits 197

resiliency from injury leaves the population of older adults with disability at increased
risk of felony-related eldercide.
The percentage of older adults not working was significantly associated with felony-
related eldercide, but in the unexpected negative direction, so that a greater percentage
of older adults working is associated with more felony-related eldercide. The same sort
of relationship was also apparent for argument-related eldercide. One possible explana-
tion for this is that the working older adults are at high risk of workplace violence and
homicide (Loomis, Richardson, Wolf, Runyan, & Butts, 1997). Although overall homi-
cide victimization is consistently lower for older adults, figures from Loomis et al. indi-
cated that the workplace homicide victimization rate for older adults is much higher than
that for younger age groups. Also, those working older adults who commute and return
from work late at night may be at additional risk of violent victimization. Further disag-
gregating eldercides by location (i.e., eldercide at home vs. eldercide at work or other
public places) would be valuable for understanding such situational variation. The dif-
ference in type of opportunity (exposure) implicit in this distinction suggests that the
percentage of older adults not employed should be positively associated with home
eldercide but negatively with workplace eldercide (or eldercide at other locations outside
the home). This may be a difficult project for future research, as currently SHR does not
report the location of homicides, and local data or nonnationally representative NIBRS
(National Incidence-Based Reporting System, which excludes many large cities) are
unlikely to provide enough observations to reasonably disaggregate eldercides by loca-
tion without pooling data from very long time spans.
In addition to the elderly lifestyle and routine activity measures, we also included
other variables specific to felony-related eldercide. Among those measures, daytime
nonoccupancy and likely offender pool did not have statistically significant associa-
tions with felony-related eldercide rates. Robbery rate was significantly and positively
associated with felony-related eldercide; this was expected, given that robbery-related
eldercide is the main component of felony-related eldercide (Copeland, 1986; Nelsen
& Huff-Corzine, 1998; Weaver et al., 2004) and is consistent with the argument that
robbery incidents are a key element of older adults’ exposure to felony-related homi-
cide. However, robbery rate was also significantly and positively related to argument-
related eldercide rates, so it is interesting that this association was not specific to the
felony circumstance. This suggests that robbery is an indicator of general violence in
the city as well as a measure of exposure to felony-related eldercide. These findings
are consistent with the significant effect of robbery rate on total eldercide in Weaver
et al. With the percentages of older adults with disability and not working and robbery
rates all associated with both felony- and argument-related eldercides (and, within
each variable, in the same direction), we expect that structural change in those factors
will be accompanied by similar changes in rates of both types of eldercide. On the
other hand, changes in the proportion of older adults living alone will likely influence
felony-related eldercide rates only.
Although the current study profitably extended previous work on eldercide by
exploring macro-level relationships with elderly lifestyle and routine activity mea-
sures, it is important to also note its shortcomings. First, felony- and argument-related

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198 Homicide Studies 17(2)

eldercides might not be as conceptually distinct as we treat them here. It is plausible

that a substantial number of felony-related eldercides could also involve arguments
and anger. This potential overlap could have contributed to the similarity of results for
felony- and argument-related eldercide. Also, Fox and Swatt’s (2007) imputation
method excluded “suspected felony” incidents from the felony-related homicide cat-
egory; including such incidents with felony-related eldercides could make the felony-
and argument-related measures more disparate and lead to more different patterns of
results for felony-related and argument-related eldercide. Although two of the three
social isolation measures were positively associated with felony-related eldercide, the
social isolation measures used here (each city’s percentages of older adults living
alone, with disability, and not working) might not fully capture city-level differences
in the social networks of older adults. It would be desirable if more direct measures of
social isolation, such as average time that older adults spend with family and friends
or percentages of older adults who are involved with churches or other organizations,
were available at the city level.
Further analyses of incident-level data are of great importance also, as macro-level
studies do not permit conclusions about individual lifestyle and activity’s relationship
with individual risk of eldercide. However, there are substantial challenges for such
future work. Along with the familiar difficulty of obtaining data on an appropriate
comparison group of nonvictims, existing incident-level eldercide data have signifi-
cant limitations. As SHR only reports lethal outcomes, it cannot be used to study the
lethality of different crime situations. NIBRS does report on lethal and nonlethal inci-
dents, offense circumstances, and victim’s age but does not include any measures of
the victim’s lifestyle and routine activities, such as living arrangement, presence of
disability, or employment status. Although it would be desirable for NIBRS to include
such information, NIBRS data collection is already burdensome for law enforcement
and it seems unlikely that agencies will be asked to supply additional information on
each incident. Still, despite these challenges, the incorporation of additional direct
measures of lifestyle and routine activities such as frequency and duration of activities
outside the home, level of home confinement, and precautionary practices (Miethe
et al., 1990) offers great potential for increasing our understanding of eldercide.
If further individual-level research found that older adults living alone, impaired or
working, in fact face greater risk of felony-related homicide victimization, various
interventions to increase guardianship over those high-risk groups could be considered.
Educational programs to encourage effective precautionary behaviors (e.g., securing
their homes) among older adults living alone and/or with impairment might decrease
their attractiveness as targets of potential felony offenders (Chu & Kraus, 2004).
Increased formal protection by police, including more collaborative relationships
between police and local senior citizen groups, may also help check felony-related
eldercide (Bachman & Meloy, 2008; Faggiani & Owens, 1999). In implementing such
guardianship-oriented measures, care must be taken not to simultaneously increase the
social interactions with crime-prone populations that may lead to argument-related
eldercide. To reduce workplace exposure to felony-related eldercide, elderly workers
could be encouraged to avoid high-exposure occupations such as taxi cab driver,

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Roberts and Willits 199

grocery store clerk, and security guard (Kraus, 1987; Loomis et al, 1997). Elderly
workers’ employers should take exposure and guardianship into account when making
work assignments (Chu & Kraus, 2004). More generally, it may be a useful preventive
strategy for cities to offer free fitness or self-defense classes for older adults.
In addition to such interventions related to lifestyle and daily activities, Chu and
Kraus also suggest swift emergency response to elderly violent crime victims as a
secondary prevention measure. As discussed earlier, older adults are more likely than
younger persons to die from injuries sustained during the course of violence (Abrams
et al., 2007; Chu & Kraus, 2004; Faggiani & Owens, 1999; Hirschel & Rubin, 1982).
Of course, the effectiveness of this secondary intervention effort may be questionable
for those older adults who are living alone.
Future research should continue investigating the correlates of eldercide. The rela-
tive infrequency of eldercide has led previous age-specific homicide research to
mainly focus on homicide victimization of juveniles or younger adults. However, as
America’s elderly population continues to grow, we expect that, in absolute terms at
least, there will be more homicide victimization of older adults, and we hope that
additional innovative studies of eldercide will provide tools for responding to that
increased victimization.

Appendix
Descriptive Statistics (N = 195)
M SD Min Max Definition
Dependent variables
Felony-related eldercide 2.80 5.71 0 45 Count of eldercides in the
context of felony
Argument-related 2.66 5.33 0 52 Count of eldercides in the
eldercide context of argument
Independent variables
Older adults living 30.95 5.96 16.53 43.70 Percentage of persons aged
alone 65 and older living alone
Older adults with 44.12 4.46 32.28 55.38 Percentage of persons aged
disability 65 and older with disability
Older adults not 86.69 2.62 79.52 91.32 Percentage of persons aged
working 65 and older not employed
Daytime nonoccupancy 65.11 4.38 51.67 76.28 Percentage of all households
unoccupied during the
daytime
Robbery rate 267.28 200.83 19.92 1117.85 Robbery rate (all ages) per
100,000 population
Population in the age 11.76 3.73 6.28 40.17 Percentage of population in
group of 18 to 24 the age group of 18 to 24
years years
Logged total population 12.27 0.74 11.52 15.90 Logged total population

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200 Homicide Studies 17(2)

Acknowledgment

We would like to thank Jeff Nowacki, Marc Riedel (guest editor), John Roberts, Kelly Socia,
and anonymous reviewers for helpful comments.

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship,
and/or publication of this article.

Funding
The authors received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this
article.

Notes
1. We pooled data from multiple years because of eldercide’s relative infrequency.
2. Nonfamily households include unmarried couples, roommates, and people living alone.
3. In unimputed 2000-2005 Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR) data, which give more
detailed categories of circumstance, 76% of felony-related eldercides happened in the
course of robbery (for our sample of cities with population of 100,000 or more).
4. In creating the imputed SHR data sets, Fox and Swatt (2007) categorized suspected felony
incidents as “other” rather than “felony-related.” Therefore, we followed this categoriza-
tion when using the imputed data.
5. According to nonimputed SHR data for 2000-2005, 43% of eldercides with known victim’s
age and circumstances in our sample of cities were felony related, 32% were argument
related, and 25% were “other.”
6. We use the term “effect” for ease of presentation. We do not intend to indicate formal cau-
sality by this usage.
7. As the percentage of older adults living alone increases 5%, the expected rate of felony-
related eldercides is multiplied by eb×5 = e.034×5 = 1.185, which is equivalent to an increase
of 18.5%.

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Author Biographies
Aki Roberts is assistant research professor in the Department of Sociology, University of New
Mexico. Her interests include quantitative methods, crime clearance, NIBRS data, Japanese
crime, police networks, crime trends, and terrorism preparedness. Her recent publication on
motor vehicle theft recovery appeared in Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency. Her
article on terrorism preparedness among police agencies (with John M. Roberts and Raymond
V. Liedka) is forthcoming in Crime & Delinquency.

Dale Willits is a PhD candidate in the Department of Sociology, University of New Mexico.
His interests include crime data, police organizations, and the situational analysis of crime. His
article on schools, neighborhood risk factors and crime (with Lisa Broidy and Kristine Denman)
is forthcoming in Crime & Delinquency.

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