Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Investment is putting money into something with the expectation of profit. The word
originates in the Latin "vestis", meaning garment, and refers to the act of putting
things (money or other claims to resources) into others' pockets.
The term "investment" is used differently in economics and in finance. Economists
refer to a real investment (such as a machine or a house), while financial economists
refer to a financial asset, such as money that is put into a bank or the market, which
may then be used to buy a real asset.
Characteristics of Investment.
1. Risk Factor
2. Expectation of Return
Return expectation is the main objective of investment. Investors expect regularity
of high and consistent income for their capital.
3. Safety
Investors expect safety for their capital. They desire certainty of return and
protection of their investment or principal amount.
4. Liquidity
Liquidity means easily sale or convert the capital or investment into cash without
any loss. So, most investors prefer liquid investments.
5. Marketability
It is another feature of investment that they are marketable. It means buying and
selling or transferability of securities in the market.
6. Stability Of Income
Investors invest their capital with high expectation of income. So, return on their
investment should be adequate and stable.
Investment
Introduction to Investment
Risk Factor
Expectation of Return
Safety
Liquidity
Marketability
Stability of Income
Classification of Investment
• Direct Investing
• Indirect Investing
Direct Investing
Indirect Investing
Investors may not directly invest and manage the portfolio; rather they buy the units
of funds that hold various types of securities on behalf of investors. The funds are
known as mutual funds or investment companies and the part owners are known as
unit holders. In case indirect investing, the investors let the investment company to
do all the work and make all the decisions (for a fee). The unit-holders have
ownership interest in the assets of the fund or the investment company and are
entitled to a pro-rata share of interest, dividend and capital gains generated. It
involves investing in mutual funds and exchange traded funds.
Preferential shares are preferential in nature. During the liquidation of the company, the
shareholders holding preferential shares are paid out first after settling the debts of the
creditors of the company. Also, preferential shareholders do not have any voting rights.
Various types of preferential shares are seen based on structure, maturity terms, nature of
dividend payment, etc. below are some common types:
• Equity Share Capital:
Equity Shares are also known as ordinary shares. Equity shares are one of the most
common types of share. These are equal in value and also impart various rights like
voting rights, dividends, etc. to the shareholders. These shares are traded in stock
exchange and are issued at a face value.
Debenture:
A debenture is an instrument used by a lender, such as a bank, when providing capital to
companies and individuals. It enables the lender to secure loan repayments against the
borrower’s assets – even if they default on the payment.
Types of debentures:
• Registered Debentures:
• Bearer Debentures:
• Secured Debentures:
• Unsecured Debentures:
• Redeemable Debentures:
• Non-redeemable Debentures:
• Convertible Debentures:
• Non-convertible Debentures:
Treasury Bills (T-Bills)
Treasury bills or T- Bills are issued by the Reserve Bank of India on behalf of the Central
Government for raising money. They have short term maturities with highest upto one year.
Currently, T- Bills are issued with 3 different maturity periods, which are, 91 days T-Bills, 182
days T- Bills, 1 year T – Bills.
T-Bills are issued at a discount to the face value. At maturity, the investor gets the face value
amount. This difference between the initial value and face value is the return earned by the
investor. They are the safest short term fixed income investments as they are backed by the
Government of India.
2. Commercial Papers
Large companies and businesses issue promissory notes to raise capital to meet short term
business needs, known as Commercial Papers (CPs). These firms have a high credit rating, owing
to which commercial papers are unsecured, with company’s credibility acting as security for the
financial instrument.
Corporates, primary dealers (PDs) and All-India Financial Institutions (FIs) can issue CPs.
CPs have a fixed maturity period ranging from 7 days to 270 days. However, investors can trade
this instrument in the secondary market. They offer relatively higher returns compared to that from
treasury bills.
CDs are financial assets that are issued by banks and financial institutions. They offer fixed interest
rate on the invested amount. The primary difference between a CD and a Fixed Deposit is that of
the value of principal amount that can be invested. The former is issued for large sums of money
( 1 lakh or in multiples of 1 lakh thereafter).
Because of the restriction on minimum investment amount, CDs are more popular amongst
organizations than individuals who are looking to park their surplus for short term, and earn interest
on the same.
The maturity period of Certificates of Deposits ranges from 7 days to 1 year, if issued by banks.
Other financial institutions can issue a CD with maturity ranging from 1 year to 3 years.
Mutual funds
A mutual fund is a company that pools money from many investors and invests the money in
securities such as stocks, bonds, and short-term debt. The combined holdings of the mutual fund
are known as its portfolio. Investors buy shares in mutual funds.
Types of mutual funds
Types of Mutual Funds based on structure
• Open-Ended Funds: These are funds in which units are open for purchase or redemption
through the year. All purchases/redemption of these fund units are done at prevailing
NAVs. Basically these funds will allow investors to keep invest as long as they want. There
are no limits on how much can be invested in the fund. They also tend to be actively
managed which means that there is a fund manager who picks the places where investments
will be made. These funds also charge a fee which can be higher than passively managed
funds because of the active management. THey are an ideal investment for those who want
investment along with liquidity because they are not bound to any specific maturity
periods. Which means that investors can withdraw their funds at any time they want thus
giving them the liquidity they need.
• Close-Ended Funds: These are funds in which units can be purchased only during the
initial offer period. Units can be redeemed at a specified maturity date. To provide for
liquidity, these schemes are often listed for trade on a stock exchange. Unlike open ended
mutual funds, once the units or stocks are bought, they cannot be sold back to the mutual
fund, instead they need to be sold through the stock market at the prevailing price of the
shares.
• Interval Funds: These are funds that have the features of open-ended and close-ended
funds in that they are opened for repurchase of shares at different intervals during the fund
tenure. The fund management company offers to repurchase units from existing unitholders
during these intervals. If unitholders wish to they can offload shares in favour of the fund.
Types of Mutual Funds based on asset class
• Equity Funds: These are funds that invest in equity stocks/shares of companies. These are
considered high-risk funds but also tend to provide high returns. Equity funds can include
specialty funds like infrastructure, fast moving consumer goods and banking to name a
few. THey are linked to the markets and tend to
• Debt Funds: These are funds that invest in debt instruments e.g. company debentures,
government bonds and other fixed income assets. They are considered safe investments
and provide fixed returns. These funds do not deduct tax at source so if the earning from
the investment is more than Rs. 10,000 then the investor is liable to pay the tax on it
himself.
• Money Market Funds: These are funds that invest in liquid instruments e.g. T-Bills, CPs
etc. They are considered safe investments for those looking to park surplus funds for
immediate but moderate returns. Money markets are also referred to as cash markets and
come with risks in terms of interest risk, reinvestment risk and credit risks.
• Balanced or Hybrid Funds: These are funds that invest in a mix of asset classes. In some
cases, the proportion of equity is higher than debt while in others it is the other way round.
Risk and returns are balanced out this way. An example of a hybrid fund would be Franklin
India Balanced Fund-DP (G) because in this fund, 65% to 80% of the investment is made
in equities and the remaining 20% to 35% is invested in the debt market. This is so because
the debt markets offer a lower risk than the equity market.
Types of Mutual Funds based on investment objective
• Growth funds: Under these schemes, money is invested primarily in equity stocks with the
purpose of providing capital appreciation. They are considered to be risky funds ideal for
investors with a long-term investment timeline. Since they are risky funds they are also
ideal for those who are looking for higher returns on their investments.
• Income funds: Under these schemes, money is invested primarily in fixed-income
instruments e.g. bonds, debentures etc. with the purpose of providing capital protection and
regular income to investors.
• Liquid funds: Under these schemes, money is invested primarily in short-term or very
short-term instruments e.g. T-Bills, CPs etc. with the purpose of providing liquidity. They
are considered to be low on risk with moderate returns and are ideal for investors with
short-term investment timelines.
• Tax-Saving Funds (ELSS): These are funds that invest primarily in equity shares.
Investments made in these funds qualify for deductions under the Income Tax Act. They
are considered high on risk but also offer high returns if the fund performs well.
• Capital Protection Funds: These are funds where funds are are split between investment
in fixed income instruments and equity markets. This is done to ensure protection of the
principal that has been invested.
• Fixed Maturity Funds: Fixed maturity funds are those in which the assets are invested in
debt and money market instruments where the maturity date is either the same as that of
the fund or earlier than it.
• Pension Funds: Pension funds are mutual funds that are invested in with a really long term
goal in mind. They are primarily meant to provide regular returns around the time that the
investor is ready to retire. The investments in such a fund may be split between equities
and debt markets where equities act as the risky part of the investment providing higher
return and debt markets balance the risk and provide lower but steady returns. The returns
from these funds can be taken in lump sums, as a pension or a combination of the two.
Types of Mutual Funds based on specialty
• Sector Funds: These are funds that invest in a particular sector of the market e.g.
Infrastructure funds invest only in those instruments or companies that relate to the
infrastructure sector. Returns are tied to the performance of the chosen sector. The risk
involved in these schemes depends on the nature of the sector.
• Index Funds: These are funds that invest in instruments that represent a particular index
on an exchange so as to mirror the movement and returns of the index e.g. buying shares
representative of the BSE Sensex.
• Fund of funds: These are funds that invest in other mutual funds and returns depend on
the performance of the target fund. These funds can also be referred to as multi manager
funds. These investments can be considered relatively safe because the funds that investors
invest in actually hold other funds under them thereby adjusting for risk from any one fund.
• Emerging market funds: These are funds where investments are made in developing
countries that show good prospects for the future. They do come with higher risks as a
result of the dynamic political and economic situations prevailing in the country.
• International funds: These are also known as foreign funds and offer investments in
companies located in other parts of the world. These companies could also be located in
emerging economies. The only companies that won’t be invested in will be those located
in the investor’s own country.
• Global funds: These are funds where the investment made by the fund can be in a company
in any part of the world. They are different from international/foreign funds because in
global funds, investments can be made even the investor's own country.
• Real estate funds: These are the funds that invest in companies that operate in the real
estate sectors. These funds can invest in realtors, builders, property management
companies and even in companies providing loans. The investment in the real estate can
be made at any stage, including projects that are in the planning phase, partially completed
and are actually completed.
• Commodity focused stock funds: These funds don’t invest directly in the commodities.
They invest in companies that are working in the commodities market, such as mining
companies or producers of commodities. These funds can, at times, perform the same way
the commodity is as a result of their association with their production.
• Market neutral funds: The reason that these funds are called market neutral is that they
don’t invest in the markets directly. They invest in treasury bills, ETFs and securities and
try to target a fixed and steady growth.
• Inverse/leveraged funds: These are funds that operate unlike traditional mutual funds. The
earnings from these funds happen when the markets fall and when markets do well these
funds tend to go into loss. These are generally meant only for those who are willing to incur
massive losses but at the same time can provide huge returns as well, as a result of the
higher risk they carry.
• Asset allocation funds: The asset allocation fund comes in two variants, the target date
fund and the target allocation funds. In these funds, the portfolio managers can adjust the
allocated assets to achieve results. These funds split the invested amounts and invest it in
various instruments like bonds and equity.
• Gilt Funds: Gilt funds are mutual funds where the funds are invested in government
securities for a long term. Since they are invested in government securities, they are
virtually risk free and can be the ideal investment to those who don’t want to take risks.
• Exchange traded funds: These are funds that are a mix of both open and close ended
mutual funds and are traded on the stock markets. These funds are not actively managed,
they are managed passively and can offer a lot of liquidity. As a result of their being
managed passively, they tend to have lower service charges (entry/exit load) associated
with them.
Factors influencing
on Investment
Technological changes:
Competitors’ strategy:.
Demand forecast
Outlook of management:
Fiscal Policy:
Cash Flows:
Expected return from the investment:
Non-economic factors:
The Investment Process
Investment Process
When we speak of investment, I am sure most of you would think of investing in some fixed
deposit or a property or some of you would even buy gold. But there is much more to investing.
An investment is the purchase of an asset with an expectation to receive return or some other
income on that asset in future. The process of investment involves careful study and analysis of
the various classes of assets and the risk-return ratio attached to it.
An investment process is a set of guidelines that govern the behaviour of investors in a way which
allows them to remain faithful to the tenets of their investment strategy, that is the key principles
which they hope to facilitate outperformance.
There are 5 investment process steps that help you in selecting and investing in the best asset class
according to your needs and preferences.
The first and the foremost step of investment process is to understand the client or the investor
his/her needs, his risk taking capacity and his tax status. After getting an insight of the goals and
restraints of the client, it is important to set a benchmark for the client’s portfolio management
process which will help in evaluating the performance and check whether the client’s objectives
are achieved.
This step involves decision on how to allocate the investment across different asset classes, i.e.
fixed income securities, equity, real estate etc. It also involves decision of whether to invest in
domestic assets or in foreign assets. The investor will make this decision after considering the
macroeconomic conditions and overall market status.
Third step in the investment process is to select the proper strategy of portfolio creation. Choosing
the right strategy for portfolio creation is very important as it forms the basis of selecting the assets
that will be added in the portfolio management process. The strategy that conforms to the
investment policies and investment objectives should be selected.
1. Active Management
2. Passive Management
Active portfolio management process refers to a strategy where the objective of investing is to
outperform the market return compared to a specific benchmark by either buying securities that
are undervalued or by short selling securities that are overvalued. In this strategy, risk and return
both are high. This strategy is a proactive strategy it requires close attention by the investor or the
fund manager.
Passive portfolio management process refers to the strategy where the purpose is to generate
returns equal to that of the market. It is a reactive strategy as the fund manager or the investor
reacts after the market has responded.
The investor needs to select the assets to be placed in the portfolio management process in the
fourth step. Within each asset class, there are different sub asset-classes. For example, in equity,
which stocks should be chosen? Within the fixed income securities class, which bonds should be
chosen?
Also, the investment objectives should conform to the investment policies because otherwise the
main purpose of investment management process would become meaningless.
This is the final step in the investment process which evaluates the portfolio management
performance. This is an important step as it measures the performance of the investment with
respect to a benchmark, in both absolute and relative terms. The investor would determine whether
his objectives are being achieved or not.
Conclusion
After all the above points have been followed, the investor needs to keep monitoring the portfolio
management performance at an appropriate interval. If the investor finds that any asset is not
performing well, he/she should’ve balance’ the portfolio. Re balancing means adding or removing
(or better call it adjusting) some assets from the portfolio to maintain the target level. Re balancing
helps the investor to maintain his/her level of risk and return.
Types of investment risk
1. Market risk
The risk of investments declining in value because of economic developments or other events that
affect the entire market. The main types of market risk are equity risk, interest rate risk and
currency risk.
• Equity risk – applies to an investment in shares. The market price of shares varies all the
time depending on demand and supply. Equity risk is the risk of loss because of a drop in
the market price of shares.
• Interest rate risk – applies to debt investments such as bonds. It is the risk of losing money
because of a change in the interest rate. For example, if the interest rate goes up, the market
value of bonds will drop.
• Currency risk – applies when you own foreign investments. It is the risk of losing money
because of a movement in the exchange rate. For example, if the U.S. dollar becomes less
valuable relative to the Canadian dollar, your U.S. stocks will be worth less in Canadian
dollars.
2. Liquidity risk
The risk of being unable to sell your investment at a fair price and get your money out when you
want to. To sell the investment, you may need to accept a lower price. In some cases, such as
exempt market investments, it may not be possible to sell the investment at all.
3. Concentration risk
The risk of loss because your money is concentrated in 1 investment or type of investment. When
you diversify your investments, you spread the risk over different types of investments, industries
and geographic locations.
4. Credit risk
The risk that the government entity or company that issued the bond will run into financial
difficulties and won’t be able to pay the interest or repay the principal at maturity. Credit risk
applies to debt investments such as bonds. You can evaluate credit risk by looking at the credit
rating of the bond. For example, long-term Canadian government bonds have a credit rating of
AAA, which indicates the lowest possible credit risk.
5. Reinvestment risk
The risk of loss from reinvesting principal or income at a lower interest rate. Suppose you buy a
bond paying 5%. Reinvestment risk will affect you if interest rates drop and you have to reinvest
the regular interest payments at 4%. Reinvestment risk will also apply if the bond matures and you
have to reinvest the principal at less than 5%. Reinvestment risk will not apply if you intend to
spend the regular interest payments or the principal at maturity.
6. Inflation risk
The risk of a loss in your purchasing power because the value of your investments does not keep
up with inflation. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money over time – the same amount of
money will buy fewer goods and services. Inflation risk is particularly relevant if you own cash or
debt investments like bonds. Shares offer some protection against inflation because most
companies can increase the prices they charge to their customers. Share prices should therefore
rise in line with inflation. Real estate also offers some protection because landlords can increase
rents over time.
7. Horizon risk
The risk that your investment horizon may be shortened because of an unforeseen event, for
example, the loss of your job. This may force you to sell investments that you were expecting to
hold for the long term. If you must sell at a time when the markets are down, you may lose money.
8. Longevity risk
The risk of outliving your savings. This risk is particularly relevant for people who are retired, or
are nearing retirement.
The risk of loss when investing in foreign countries. When you buy foreign investments, for
example, the shares of companies in emerging markets, you face risks that do not exist in Canada,
for example, the risk of nationalization.
Difference between Investment and speculation
Speculation is an act of
The purchase of an asset with
conducting a risky financial
Meaning the hope of getting returns is
transaction, in the hope of
called investment.
substantial profit.
The definition of the profiles is associated with the “Tripod of Investments” that are essential
factors used in the evaluation of an investment which is liquidity, security, and profitability.
Liquidity is related to the availability of money, or to the “rescue” of the investor´s money;
Security is related to risks; And Profitability is related to the possible return, the gains.
These factors are used by investors during their decision-making process, and a significant detail
is that these factors may not be present in an investment in a remarkable way, which leads the
investor to have to give up some factor.
Your preferences, your choices and the factors you choose to prioritize will define your investor´s
profile.
*When it is time to invest, what are you willing to give up? * Which factor do you prioritize most?
*Do you have emotional tolerance for losses? *Or do you get desperate for losing any amount?
*Would you like to have your money available for withdrawal at any time? *Or do you feel
comfortable waiting 30+ days? What is your tolerance for risks? *Are you interested in investing
short term or long term?
1. The Conservative
The conservative investor prioritizes security and liquidity much more than profitability. Thus, the
conservative has zero tolerance for losses and risks which naturally leads him or her to give up on
a larger return that comes with higher-risk investments. This profile likes to have its investments
deposited in applications without much volatility so that he or she can leave them there and rest.
This does not mean that he or she does not monitor them, but rather that there is no reason for very
strong emotions like the stock market for example. In the case of riskier applications, the
conservative profile appreciates rescue power, or immediate liquidity, and would not be able to
tolerate 15 or 30 days waiting while watching their precious investments declining. This profile is
in search of, or comfortable with, short to medium term investments ranging from 0- 5 years.
Usually, new investors who are just getting started will easily fit this profile and overtime after
acquiring more experience their profile may change.
• Investment Portfolio: At least 80% applied to Fixed Income and little or nothing in Variable
Income.
2. The Moderate
The moderate investor has one foot in the conservative and another in the aggressive profile,
making it safe to say that this is a more balanced profile. This profile has greater tolerance for risks
than the conservative but not as much as the aggressive; it is willing to give up a little more on
liquidity and security to obtain the desired returns. This profile is in search of, or comfortable with,
medium to long term investments from 5 to 10 years.
• Investment Portfolio: 60–65% applied to Fixed Income and the rest in Variable Income
and Funds
Ps: It would be natural to believe this is the best profile, but truth be told, the best profile for you
is your own. There is not one profile better than the other. Keep that in mind ;)
3. The Aggressive
The aggressive investor prioritizes profitability above all factors and has great tolerance for risks.
This is usually a savvy investor with more money, and so he or she is willing to give up on
immediate liquidity tending to be more flexible with greater tolerance for losses because he or she
understands that higher profits will come in the long run. This profile is in search of, or comfortable
with, long term investments of 10+ years.
Types of Investors
The needs of investment clients vary widely but we can group investors into two broad categories –
individual investors and institutional investors. Different investors will have varying investment
time horizons, tolerance for portfolio risk, income needs and liquidity needs.
Individual Investors
Individual investors may be investing for short-term or long-term goals. A short-term goal may be
their children’s education or the purchase of a house. Longer-term goals center on providing
income for retirement. These differing goals mean some investors are focused on capital growth
and look for those investments with a potential for capital appreciation while retirees will want
income-producing assets. The structuring of a portfolio for an investor will also be dependent on
their financial circumstances like home-ownership, employment prospects, and other financial
obligations.
Institutional Investors
There are many different types of institutional investors. By size, institutional assets make up a
major portion of investment market participation. Pension funds, endowments, charities, banks,
insurance companies, investment funds and Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) are all classified as
institutional investors. These institutional investors also have differing financial objectives.
Banks
Banks hold deposits and make loans which can lead to excess reserves – this is where the bank
holds more deposits than it has extended loans. Banks can invest these reserves which typically
have to be held in conservative and liquid assets like fixed-income and money market instruments.
The objective of the bank is to earn a rate of return in excess to the rate of interest it pays on its
deposits.
Insurance Companies
Insurance companies receive premiums from the insurance policies they write. They need to invest
these premiums to ensure there are sufficient funds available to pay for insurance claims when
these arise. As such, their investments are also often conservative in nature and cognizant of the
investment time frame over which claims may arise.
Investment Companies
Investment companies manage mutual funds which are pooled investment vehicles. Mutual funds
are seen as an efficient way for individual investors to gain access to a diversified portfolio and
benefit from the skills of a professional investment manager. Mutual funds are managed according
to the limits and restrictions of their investment mandates.
SWFs are government-owned investment funds. Some operate with the objective of investing the
revenues from the natural resources of the country (i.e. oil) for the benefit of future generations of
citizens while others manage the assets of the state.
Investor Life Cycle
Individual investor life cycle indicates the investment behavior of investor over the different age
of their life. The investment decision is based on the age, financial condition, future plans and risk
characteristics of an individual.
Investor mainly invests in getting a return which can compensate the sacrifice of present for more
future earnings and security. As a financial plan investor can adopt different insurance policies or
reserve cash for future. Although investor has to take risk of reserving cash or investing the cash
they are ready to take some risk according to their risk-taking behavior.
• Accumulation Phase
• Consolidation Phase
• Spending Phase
• Gifting Phase
Accumulation Phase
Investor early or middle to their career tries to accumulate fund so that individual can have money
to spend in the later phase of their life. Some people accumulate the fund to buy house, car or other
important assets and some people accumulate for their children’s education cost, life peaceful life
after retirement.
Funds invested in the early phase of life gives an investor a huge amount of fund which is
compounding over the years
Consolidation Phase
Consolidation phase is the midpoint of their career, in this phase, they earn more, spends more and
pay off all their debts. In this phase moderately high risk taken by the investor but for capital
reservation some investor prefer lower risk investor. Individual invest in the capital market and
investment securities.
Spending Phase
This phase starts when an individual retires from the job. Their overall portfolio is to be less risky
than the consolidation phase; they prefer low risky investment or risk-free investment. People
prefer fixed income securities like a bond, debenture, treasury bills etc. In this phase, they need
some risky investor if they have extra money so that future inflation can be adjusted.
Gifting Phase
If individuals believe that they have enough extra funds to meet their current and future expenses
then they go for gifting money to their friends, family members or establish charitable trusts. These
can reduce their income taxes and they also keep some fun for future uncertainties.
Over the different phase, investor behaves differently and invest in their preferred sector according
to their risk-taking behavior.
Common Mistakes in Investments
For most people, this isn’t an issue – their goal with investing is to have a stable income in
retirement to supplement their Social Security. This is about as easy as can be, with both employee
sponsored and individual plans within easy reach of pretty much everyone. Most retirement plans
make working toward that goal really, really easy by offering target-date retirement funds.
Where this gets tricky is when people are investing for reasons besides retirement. If you’re not
investing toward retirement, you need to figure out exactly why you’re investing, how far off that
goal is, and how much risk you can tolerate along the way.
Diversification in investments simply means having your money spread across a lot of different
things. Ideally, you’re spreading your investment money across completely different types of
assets – cash, bonds, stocks, real estate, maybe even things like precious metals or collectibles.
The reasoning is easy – just because one of those things drops in value doesn’t mean that the others
will, so if you have your money spread across all of those things, you won’t suffer if, say, the stock
market takes a dive.
Some things even work in reverse: For example, historically, bonds do well when stocks take a
dive and vice versa. The problem is that most people don’t diversify very much, especially when
it comes to the things that are most important, like retirement savings.
The stock market can jump or drop multiple percentage points in a single day, and that can be a
really bumpy ride for some people. If you have 100,000 in the stock market and it drops 4% in a
day, you’ve just lost 4,000. That’s enough to make some people panic.
The thing is, if you’re invested in the stock market, the short term shouldn’t matter at all to you.
What matters is the long term, and over the long term, the stock market has a fairly steady (although
bumpy) upward trend. If you push the panic button because of one down day, or one down week,
or even one down year, you’re going to end up hurting yourself big time.
Many people’s instincts tell them to buy stocks after a day or a week where they’ve done really
well. Stocks have gone up 10% in the last quarter, they must be hot, I should buy in! Unfortunately,
that’s buying high.
On the other hand, people often instinctively sell when an investment drops rapidly. They see
losses over the last month or quarter and they get scared and panic. That’s selling low.
Buying high and selling low are strategies that are going to fail you over and over again. A much
better approach: Ignore the lows and highs, buy a little bit each week or each month, and then sell
when you need to.
Some people get really into the “game” of playing around with their investments. They’ll react to
the news that they hear and move their investments around all the time. The problem when you do
that is that you tend to generate lots of transaction fees as well as lots of tax implications.
Many brokerages charge you every time you buy or sell an investment, which can add up extremely
quickly if you’re buying and selling too often. Those transaction fees chew up and swallow your
gains quite quickly.
Beyond that, it can quickly turn your tax situation into a mess, with a mix of short- and long-term
capital gains and losses that could result in a painful tax bill, too. You’re almost always better off
making a diversified plan and sticking with it right off the bat.
Different brokerages charge different fees when you buy and sell investments. Not only that,
commission-based financial planners like to get their piece of the pie, too. If you’re using a high
commission planner and also investing in something that has high transaction charges, your money
is going down the drain.
You’re far better off figuring out how to do these things yourself and finding investment
opportunities that come with little or no transaction fees. I use Vanguard for almost all of my
investments and if you invest directly with them and buy their funds, there are no transaction fees
or commissions at all.
People often focus intensely on the tax consequences of their investment decisions, often to their
own detriment. Yes, making a move to help you pay lower taxes can be a good thing, but the taxes
a person pays on investment gains are often insignificant compared to having a good investment
strategy for your goals.
If an opportunity comes up that can help you lower your taxes without losing investment gains,
you should by all means take advantage of it, but if you’re making investment choices primarily
to avoid paying a few dollars to Uncle Sam, like putting your money in a 401(k) with terrible
options instead of a Roth IRA with great options so you pay fewer taxes this year, you’re almost
always guaranteeing yourself a worse outcome.
The media always loves to hype things. The media also loves to hit that panic button hard.
One day, they’ll work to convince you that you need this or that investment because it’s the hottest
thing in town. The next, they’ll tell you that everything is falling apart and the sky is falling.
Usually, neither one is true. The media simply knows that hype and fear are the things that attract
viewers and readers. Be calm and measured – don’t fall for the media hype cycle, especially when
it comes to your investments.
Just as there is in any profession, there are good financial advisors and bad financial advisors out
there. There are a few tell-tale signs of bad advisors, however.
One sure sign of a questionable advisor is that they’re not asking you a lot of questions – a good
advisor wants to know who you are and what your reasons for investing are. Another sign is that
they can’t explain why you would want to invest in a particular investment.
In general, I look for fee-based financial advisors, meaning that they don’t make their money from
commissions on particular investments (because doing so would give them incentive to push you
into those investments whether they’re right for you or not).
The worst investment decision is one based on emotions, and those emotions can come from a lot
of places. They can come from fear about the future. They can come from anger or sadness
regarding your key life relationships. They can come from irrational exuberance about how well
things are going at the moment.
The best investment plan is one that’s considered with minimal emotion and one that you stick to
throughout those emotional highs and lows.
Inflation is a real thing. Prices continue to go up and up and up and if you don’t account for that
down the road, you’re going to find yourself in a real pickle eventually.
Don’t make your target number match what you would need today. Include inflation in the
equation. Assume that prices are going to go up (at least) 3% per year and thus you’re going to
need that much more to live on in retirement. Yes, it makes the hill a lot bigger, but you’re better
off shooting for the right number.
Many people avoid retirement savings because of a fear of complexity or a desire to maximize
their paychecks today. Some people choose to discontinue their retirement savings because they
feel pressured by today’s financial needs. The worst mistake you can make when saving for
retirement is not starting at all; the second worst mistake is stopping your savings and not restarting
it.
You can’t personally change the ups and downs of the economy, but you can change your own
day-to-day behavior. You can choose to spend less on unnecessary things, which gives you more
money to invest toward the future.
The key is finding a good balance, and many people believe in a balance that is tilted too hard
toward the present and away from their future needs.
Non Marketable Financial Assets
These assets represent personal transactions between the investor and the issuer.
For example, when you open a savings bank account at a bank you deal with the bank
personally. In contrast when you buy equity shares in the stock market you do not know
who the seller is and you do not care.
A. Bank Deposits: An individual needs to open a bank account and deposit money in order
to open a bank deposit. There are various kinds of bank accounts: current accounts,
savings account and fixed deposit account. While a deposit in a current account does not
earn any interest, deposits in other kinds of bank accounts earn interest. The important
features of bank deposits are as follows:
a. Deposits in scheduled banks are very safe because of the regulations of the Reserve
Bank of India and the guarantee provided by the Deposit Insurance Corporation, which
guarantees deposits up to Rs. 5,00,000 per depositor of a bank.
b. There is a ceiling on the interest rate payable on deposits in the savings account.
c. The interest rate on fixed deposits varies with the term of the deposit. In general, it is
lower for fixed deposits of shorter term and higher for fixed deposits of longer term.
d. If the deposit is less than 90 days, the interest is paid on maturity; otherwise it is paid
quarterly.
e. Bank deposits enjoy exceptionally high liquidity. They can be enchased prematurely
by incurring a small penalty.
f. Loans can be raised against bank deposits
g. Most banks calculate interest on the minimum deposit between the 10th and the last
date of the month. So the best way maximize returns on your savings account is to
treat it like a current account between the 1st and the 10th and a fixed deposit for the
rest of the month.
a. Assured rate of return: Banks publish the fixed deposit rate of interest on their website
and in bank branches which makes it easy for a customer to ascertain how much return
he or she will get. Banks also have a fixed deposit interest calculator on their websites
where a customer can calculate the interest he or she will receive on investing a
particular sum of money for a particular period of time.
b. Tax threshold for interest: Banks are not mandated to deduct tax on any interest until it
crosses Rs. 40,000. This provides comfort to small deposit holders.
c. Flexible tenure: The tenure for a fixed deposit is flexible and depends on the deposit
holder. Each bank has their own minimum tenure rules. However, the final decision
can be taken by the deposit holder. It is also possible to decide whether to redeem the
fixed deposit at an early stage or to extend it for the same period of time.
d. Easy liquidation: It is relatively easy to liquidate a fixed deposit. For FDs booked
online, they can be liquidated online via net banking as well. Otherwise, most bank
branches have a form to liquidate the FD.
e. Loans against fixed deposit: An FD is a dependable instrument to keep in case of
financial emergencies. Taking a loan against a fixed deposit is very easy. You can take
a loan up to 95% of the fixed deposit amount depending on the bank. This makes it a
dependable investment.
a. Reducing interest rates: Even though fixed deposits have a lot of advantages, the
interest rates do not move in line with inflation. This means in some cases, they may
actually earn less than the inflation rate. The interest rates for fixed deposits have been
falling in recent times which has reduced the attractiveness of this investment.
b. Locked in funds: Fixed deposits lock in your funds for a fixed duration. These funds
are not available for you to use unless you withdraw the funds prematurely. Fixed
deposits are not at all liquid and cannot be converted into cash easily.
c. Penalties on withdrawal: Banks charge penalty to the depositors who withdraw their
fixed deposits prematurely. This penalty is in the form of a reduced rate of interest.
d. No tax benefit: The interest earned on fixed deposit is added to the taxable income of
the deposit holder. There is no deduction on any interest earned. However, senior
citizens get a deduction up to Rs. 50,000 on interest.
e. Fixed interest rate: The rate of interest on a fixed deposit remains the same for the
entire duration of the fixed deposit. Even if the rates increase, the bank does not pay
additional interest to the deposit holder.
Post Office Deposits
a. The interest earned is virtually tax exempted barring for last year.
b. Invested amount is tax exempted under section 80C of Income Tax Act.
c. One can make investments starting from Rs 100 and there is no upper limit on the
invested amount.
d. Interest earned is compounded, resulting in higher returns.
e. NSC can also be taken on behalf of a minor.
f. NSC can be used as collateral for securing loans from banks.
g. Low-risk investment option with Government backing.
h. Highest return rate amongst other fixed rate investment options.
i. Easy investment option as they are available at all post offices.
Debt instruments which have a maturity period of less than one year are called as
money market instruments. They are highly liquid and negligible risk. It is dominated by
banks, government, financial institutions and corporate. Individuals rarely participate in
such market.
a. Treasury Bills: Treasury bills are money market instruments issued by the Government
of India as a promissory note with guaranteed repayment at a later date. Funds collected
through such tools are typically used to meet short term requirements of the government.
At present, the Government of India issues four types of treasury bills, namely, 14-day,
91-day, 182-day and 364-day. It is available for a minimum amount of Rs. 25,000 and in
multiples of Rs. 25,000. They do not carry an explicit interest rate. Instead, they are sold
at a discount and redeemed at par. Though the yield on Treasury bills is somewhat low,
they have appeal for the following reasons:
i. They can be transacted readily and there is a very active secondary market for
them
ii. Treasury bills have no credit risk and negligible price risk.
I. Risk-free: Such schemes are issued by the RBI and are backed by the central government.
Such tools act as a liability to the Indian government as they need to be repaid within the
stipulated date. Hence, individuals enjoy comprehensive security on the total funds
invested as they are backed by the highest authority in the country, and have to be paid
even during an economic crisis.
II. Liquidity: A government treasury bill is issued as a short-term fundraising tool for the
government and has the highest maturity period of 364 days. Individuals looking to
generate short term gains through secure investments can choose to park their funds in
such securities. Also, it can be resold in the secondary market, thereby allowing
individuals to convert their holding into cash during emergencies.
III. Non-competitive bidding: Treasury bills are auctioned by the RBI every week through
non-competitive bidding, thereby allowing retail and small-scale investors to partake in
such bids without having to quote the yield rate or price. It increases the exposure of
amateur investors to the government securities market, thereby creating higher cash flows
to the capital market.
i. Banks are normally willing to tailor the denominations and maturities to suit the
needs of the investors
ii. CDs generally offer a higher rate of interest than Treasury bills or term deposits
iii. CDs can be issued in India for a minimum deposit of ₹1 lakh and in subsequent
multiples of it.
iv. Similar to dematerialized securities, CDs in dematerialized forms are transferable
through means of endorsement or delivery.
v. There is no lock-in required for a CD.
vi. One cannot issue a loan against a CD.
vii. A certificate of deposit is fully taxable under the Income Tax Act.
viii. A CD cannot be publicly traded.
ix. Banks are not permitted to buy back a CD before its maturity.
i. Security: A certificate of deposit or FD is not going to eat up your capital due to market
volatility. It is a completely secure financial instrument with an assured sum at maturity,
similar to traditional insurance. The money you put into your CD will continue to
predictably increase and there is no risk of any loss. It is a very secure short to mid-term
investment.
ii. High-Interest Rate: This benefit is what attracts most investors towards a CD. They offer
larger rates of interest which can go as high as 7.8% on the lump sum deposited than
traditional savings accounts whose interest rates average around 4%.
iii. Flexibility: You can opt for monthly payouts, annual payouts, or a lump sum withdrawal
of your CD at maturity. You can pick the duration and price you want to invest, although
it has to fit certain parameters set by the bank. Tailoring the CD to your needs helps you
get the most from it.
iv. Low to Minimum Maintenance Costs: When it comes to the market there are always
brokerage costs for the delivery, buying and selling of shares. There are usually no
additional costs associated with a CD. You only pay what you invest with some banks.
Commercial Paper: It is an unsecured, short period debt tool issued by a company, usually for
the finance and inventories and temporary liabilities. These papers are like a promissory note
allotted at a huge cost and exchangeable between Financial Institutions.
Most of the commercial paper investors are from the banking sector, individuals,
corporate and incorporated companies, Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) and Foreign
Institutional Investors (FIIs), etc. However, FII can only invest according to the limit
outlined by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).
i. It is a negotiable instrument
ii. It is subscribed at a discount rate and can be issued in an interest-bearing
application as well.
iii. The issuer guarantees the buyer to pay a fixed amount in future in terms of liquid
cash and not as fixed assets.
iv. A company can directly issue the paper to investors, or it can be done through
banks/dealer banks.
v. It is an unsecured instrument and is not backed by an assets
i. Contributes Funds – It contributes extra funds as the cost of the paper to the
issuing company is cheaper than the loans of the commercial bank.
ii. Flexible – It has a high liquidity value and flexible maturity range giving it extra
flexibility.
iii. Reliable – It is highly reliable and does not have any limiting condition.
iv. Save Money – On commercial paper, companies can save extra cash and earn a
good return.
v. Lasting Source of Funds– Maturity range can be customised according to the
firm’s requirement, and matured papers can be paid by selling the new
commercial paper.
The size of the issue of the commercial papers is limited to the extent that the liquidity available
at a particular time should be in excess of the required working capital of the company
Fixed income securities: It refers to those instruments that offer a fixed interest income on
the investment. The maturity amount that one will get post maturity of the securities is
known in advance. Because of this, risk-averse investors prefer fixed income securities over
market-linked securities; these securities are apt for such people who want to earn steady
returns as well. Moreover, some of the fixed income securities like government bonds are
backed by the government which ensures minimal chances of default.
A. Government bonds: They are debt securities issued by the Indian central government or
state governments. Issuance of such bonds occur when the issuing body (Central or State
governments) faces a liquidity crisis and requires funds for the purpose of infrastructure
development. Government bond in India is essentially a contract between the issuer and
the investor, wherein the issuer guarantees interest earnings on the face value of bonds
held by investors along with repayment of the principal value on a stipulated date.
Government Bonds India ,fall under the broad category of government securities (G-Sec)
and are primarily long term investment tools issued for periods ranging from 5 to 40
years. Initially, most G-Secs were issued for the purpose of large investors, such as
companies and commercial banks. However, eventually, GOI made government
securities available to smaller investors such as individual investors, co-operative banks,
etc.
a. Low Income: Other than 7.75% GOI Savings Bond, interest earnings on other
types of bonds are relatively lower.
a. Most types of equity shares include voting rights to an investor, allowing him/her to
choose individuals responsible to run the business. Electing efficient managers allows a
company to increase its annual turnover, thereby increasing investors’ average dividend
income.
b. Equity shareholders are eligible to realize additional profits generated by a company in a
fiscal year. This increases the total wealth of individual investors having a considerable
investment in equity shares of a company.
c. Even though equity shares are not repaid until a business closes down, equity shares
already issued can be traded in the secondary capital market. Thus, investors can
withdraw funds from a company upon their discretion. This ensures massive wealth
creation through capital appreciation of such shares.
a. High Income: Equity share market is an ideal segment of the capital market responsible
for the remarkable income of investors. Wealth creation not only works through capital
appreciation of such securities but also high dividend earnings received by individuals.
b. Hedge against Inflation: Investment in profitable equity shares increases the standard of
living of individuals through asset value appreciation. Money invested in equity shares
offer manifold returns, higher than the rate of erosion of an individual’s purchasing
power due to inflation. Thus, the real value of investments tends to rise over time.
c. Portfolio Diversification: Investors having a low aptitude for risk tend to stick with debt
instruments, as it is less volatile. However, stock and bond market fluctuations are
inversely related when it comes to aggregate demand. Thus, when the bond market is
underperforming, risk-averse investors can profit from investment in best equity shares
through stock market investments.
d. Equity shares are liquid in nature and can be sold easily in the capital market.
e. The equity shareholders not only get the benefit of dividend but they also get the benefit
of price appreciation in the value of their investment.
Equity share market tends to be the most volatile segment in a stock market, profoundly
affected by minor fluctuations. Returns on equity investments are paid out after all other
obligations of a company have been met. During market downturn, production cycle of a
business is affected, thereby reducing profits generated by a business. This lower share of profit
is used up to meet all existing liabilities before funds are disbursed to as equity investment
returns. Thus equity markets tend to be adversely affected during market downturn. Market
fluctuations are a part of the business cycle, which has associated highs and lows as per the
prevailing socio-economic scenario of a country. Even if equity shares demonstrate lower returns
at a certain point of time, it is bound to pick up when the economy recovers.
Mutual fund
A mutual fund is an investment instrument which pools in money from different investors
and invests the collected corpus in a set of different asset classes such as equity, debt, gold,
foreign securities etc. Mutual funds enable investors to create diversified investment portfolios
with investments as low as Rs. 500. A mutual fund is managed by a fund manager who is an
expert carrying vast experience in the investment industry. They are regulated by capital markets
regulator SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) and AMFI (Association of Mutual
Funds in India).
The advantages of mutual funds are:
a. Portfolio Diversification: Mutual Funds diversifies investments by investing in different asset
classes. As an individual investor, one cannot afford to invest in variety of sectors. Therefore,
mutual fund offers diversification and exposure to multiple sectors through minimal
investment.
b. Professional Management: Mutual Funds are managed by qualified experienced
professionals who works towards fulfillment of investment objective of the fund.
c. Affordability: You can start your investment in Mutual Fund systematic investment plan with
a minimum investment of as low as Rs. 500.
d. Liquidity: Open ended Mutual Funds can be redeemed totally or partially at the present
value.
e. Transparency: Mutual Funds Performance is easily available on their own website as well the
performance is reviewed and published by esteemed publications and rating agencies.
f. Rupee Cost Averaging: Regular investing irrespective of the market trends help average
investment cost over a period of time. One can get higher number of units when the markets
are falling. Similarly, if the markets are rising, the overall value of the portfolio increases.
g. Consistent Savings: Helps make periodical and consistent investments. Adds financial
discipline into your life through regular investing.
h. Choice of Investment: There is a wide range of mutual funds schemes available to meet
individual goals. It also offers flexibility in the mode of investments.
a. Costs: Some mutual funds have a high cost associated with them. Mutual funds charge for
managing the funds, fund managers salary, distribution costs, etc. Depending on the fund,
these charges can be significant. When opting out from mutual fund, exit load might be
charged as an extra cost. Exit loads are applicable if investments are sold within a specified
duration. Passively managed funds like index funds or ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) have
lower expense ratios than actively managed funds. This is because passively managed funds
track the underlying index and do not require a fund manager to take active investment calls.
b. Dilution: Diversification has an averaging effect on investments. While diversification saves
from suffering any major losses, it also prevents from making any major gains.
c. Fluctuating returns: Mutual funds do not offer fixed guaranteed returns. Even the value of the
mutual fund scheme might depreciate. It entails a wide range of price fluctuations.
Professional management of a fund by a team of experts does not insulate from bad
performance of a fund scheme.
d. No Control: All types of mutual funds are managed by fund managers. In many cases, the
fund manager may be supported by a team of analysts. All major decisions concerning the
fund are taken by the fund manager.
e. Diversification: Diversification is often cited as one of the main advantages of a mutual fund.
However, there is always the risk of over diversification, which may increase the operating
cost of a fund, demands greater due diligence and dilutes the relative advantages of
diversification.
f. Fund Evaluation: Many investors may find it difficult to extensively research and evaluate
the value of different funds. A mutual fund's net asset value (NAV) provides investors the
value of a fund's portfolio. However, investors have to study various parameters such as
sharpe ratio and standard deviation among others to ascertain how one fund has fared
compared to another which can be complicated to some extent.
g. Past performance: Ratings and advertisements issued by companies are only an indicator of
the past performance of a fund. It is important to note that robust past performance of a fund
is not a guarantee of a similar performance in the future. As an investor, one should analyse
the investment philosophy, transparency, ethics, compliance and overall performance of a
fund house across different phases in the market over a period of time. Ratings can be taken
as a reference point.
h. CAGR: The performance of a mutual fund vis-a-vis the compounded annualised growth rate
(CAGR) neither provides investors adequate information about the amount of risk facing a
mutual fund nor the process of investment involved. It is therefore, only one of the indicators
to gauge the performance of a fund but is far from being comprehensive.
Types of mutual funds
ii. Debt Funds: Debt funds invest primarily in fixed-income securities such as bonds,
securities and treasury bills. They invest in various fixed income instruments such
as Fixed Maturity Plans (FMPs), Gilt Funds, Liquid Funds, Short-Term Plans,
Long-Term Bonds and Monthly Income Plans, among others. Since the
investments come with a fixed interest rate and maturity date, it can be a great
option for passive investors looking for regular income (interest and capital
appreciation) with minimal risks.
iii. Money Market Funds: Investors trade stocks in the stock market. In the same way,
investors also invest in the money market, also known as capital market or cash
market. The government runs it in association with banks, financial institutions and
other corporations by issuing money market securities like bonds, T-bills, dated
securities and certificates of deposits, among others. The fund manager invests and
disburses regular dividends in return. Opting for a short-term plan (not more than
13 months) can lower the risk of investment considerably on such funds.
iv. Hybrid Funds: As the name suggests, hybrid funds (Balanced Funds) is an
optimum mix of bonds and stocks, thereby bridging the gap between equity funds
and debt funds. The ratio can either be variable or fixed. In short, it takes the best
of two mutual funds by distributing, say, 60% of assets in stocks and the rest in
bonds or vice versa. Hybrid funds are suitable for investors looking to take more
risks for ‘debt plus returns’ benefit rather than sticking to lower but steady income
schemes.
b. Based on Structure
i. Open-Ended Funds: Open-ended funds do not have any particular constraint such
as a specific period or the number of units which can be traded. These funds allow
investors to trade funds at their convenience and exit when required at the
prevailing NAV (Net Asset Value). This is the sole reason why the unit capital
continually changes with new entries and exits. An open-ended fund can also
decide to stop taking in new investors if they do not want to (or cannot manage
significant funds).
ii. Closed-Ended Funds: In closed-ended funds, the unit capital to invest is pre-
defined. The fund company cannot sell more than the agreed number of units.
Some funds also come with a New Fund Offer (NFO) period; wherein there is a
deadline to buy units. NFOs comes with a pre-defined maturity tenure with fund
managers open to any fund size. Hence, SEBI has mandated that investors be given
the option to either repurchase option or list the funds on stock exchanges to exit
the schemes.
iii. Interval Funds: Interval funds have traits of both open-ended and closed-ended
funds. These funds are open for purchase or redemption only during specific
intervals (decided by the fund house) and closed the rest of the time. Also, no
transactions will be permitted for at least two years. These funds are suitable for
investors looking to save a lump sum amount for a short-term financial goal, say,
in 3-12 months.
ii. Income Funds: Income funds belong to the family of debt mutual funds that
distribute their money in a mix of bonds, certificate of deposits and securities
among others. It has historically earned investors better returns than deposits. They
are best suited for risk-averse investors with a 2-3 years perspective.
iii. Liquid Funds: Like income funds, liquid funds also belong to the debt fund
category as they invest in debt instruments and money market with a tenure of up
to 91 days. The maximum sum allowed to invest is Rs 10 lakh. A highlighting
feature that differentiates liquid funds from other debt funds is the way the Net
Asset Value is calculated. The NAV of liquid funds is calculated for 365 days
(including Sundays) while for others, only business days are considered.
iv. Tax-Saving Funds: ELSS or Equity Linked Saving Scheme, over the years, have
climbed up the ranks among all categories of investors. Not only do they offer the
benefit of wealth maximisation while allowing you to save on taxes, but they also
come with the lowest lock-in period of only three years. Investing predominantly
in equity (and related products), they are known to generate non-taxed returns in
the range 14-16%. These funds are best-suited for salaried investors with a long-
term investment horizon.
v. Aggressive Growth Funds: Slightly on the riskier side when choosing where to
invest in, the Aggressive Growth Fund is designed to make steep monetary gains.
Though susceptible to market volatility, one can decide on the fund as per the beta
(the tool to gauge the fund’s movement in comparison with the market). Example,
if the market shows a beta of 1, an aggressive growth fund will reflect a higher
beta, say, 1.10 or above.
vi. Capital Protection Funds: If protecting the principal is the priority, Capital
Protection Funds serves the purpose while earning relatively smaller returns (12%
at best). The fund manager invests a portion of the money in bonds or Certificates
of Deposits and the rest towards equities. Though the probability of incurring any
loss is quite low, it is advised to stay invested for at least three years (closed-
ended) to safeguard your money, and also the returns are taxable.
vii. Fixed Maturity Funds: Many investors choose to invest towards the of the FY ends
to take advantage of triple indexation, thereby bringing down tax burden. If
uncomfortable with the debt market trends and related risks, Fixed Maturity Plans
(FMP) – which invest in bonds, securities, money market etc. – present a great
opportunity. As a close-ended plan, FMP functions on a fixed maturity period,
which could range from one month to five years (like FDs). The fund manager
ensures that the money is allocated to an investment with the same tenure, to reap
accrual interest at the time of FMP maturity.
viii. Pension Funds: Putting away a portion of your income in a chosen pension fund to
accrue over a long period to secure you and your family’s financial future after
retiring from regular employment can take care of most contingencies (like a
medical emergency or children’s wedding). Relying solely on savings to get
through your golden years is not recommended as savings (no matter how big) get
used up. EPF is an example, but there are many lucrative schemes offered by
banks, insurance firms etc.
d. Based on Risk:
i. Very Low-Risk Funds: Liquid funds and ultra-short-term funds (one month to one
year) are known for its low risk, and understandably their returns are also low (6%
at best). Investors choose this to fulfil their short-term financial goals and to keep
their money safe through these funds.
ii. Low-Risk Funds: In the event of rupee depreciation or unexpected national crisis,
investors are unsure about investing in riskier funds. In such cases, fund managers
recommend putting money in either one or a combination of liquid, ultra short-
term or arbitrage funds. Returns could be 6-8%, but the investors are free to switch
when valuations become more stable.
iii. Medium-risk Funds: Here, the risk factor is of medium level as the fund manager
invests a portion in debt and the rest in equity funds. The NAV is not that volatile,
and the average returns could be 9-12%.
iv. High-Risk Funds: Suitable for investors with no risk aversion and aiming for huge
returns in the form of interest and dividends, high-risk mutual funds need active
fund management. Regular performance reviews are mandatory as they are
susceptible to market volatility. You can expect 15% returns, though most high-
risk funds generally provide up to 20% returns.
ii. Index Funds: Suited best for passive investors, index funds put money in an index.
A fund manager does not manage it. An index fund identifies stocks and their
corresponding ratio in the market index and put the money in similar proportion in
similar stocks. Even if they cannot outdo the market (which is the reason why they
are not popular in India), they play it safe by mimicking the index performance.
iii. Funds of Funds: A diversified mutual fund investment portfolio offers a slew of
benefits, and ‘Funds of Funds’ also known as multi-manager mutual funds are
made to exploit this to the tilt – by putting their money in diverse fund categories.
In short, buying one fund that invests in many funds rather than investing in
several achieves diversification while keeping the cost down at the same time.
iv. Emerging market Funds: To invest in developing markets is considered a risky bet,
and it has undergone negative returns too. India, in itself, is a dynamic and
emerging market where investors earn high returns from the domestic stock
market. Like all markets, they are also prone to market fluctuations. Also, from a
longer-term perspective, emerging economies are expected to contribute to the
majority of global growth in the following decades.
vi. Global Funds: Aside from the same lexical meaning, global funds are quite
different from International Funds. While a global fund chiefly invests in markets
worldwide, it also includes investment in your home country. The International
Funds concentrate solely on foreign markets. Diverse and universal in approach,
global funds can be quite risky to owing to different policies, market and currency
variations, though it does work as a break against inflation and long-term returns
have been historically high.
vii. Real Estate Funds: Despite the real estate boom in India, many investors are still
hesitant to invest in such projects due to its multiple risks. Real estate fund can be
a perfect alternative as the investor will be an indirect participant by putting their
money in established real estate companies/trusts rather than projects. A long-term
investment negates risks and legal hassles when it comes to purchasing a property
as well as provide liquidity to some extent.
viii. Commodity-focused Stock Funds: These funds are ideal for investors with
sufficient risk-appetite and looking to diversify their portfolio. Commodity-
focused stock funds give a chance to dabble in multiple and diverse trades.
Returns, however, may not be periodic and are either based on the performance of
the stock company or the commodity itself. Gold is the only commodity in which
mutual funds can invest directly in India. The rest purchase fund units or shares
from commodity businesses.
ix. Market Neutral Funds: For investors seeking protection from unfavourable market
tendencies while sustaining good returns, market-neutral funds meet the purpose
(like a hedge fund). With better risk-adaptability, these funds give high returns
where even small investors can outstrip the market without stretching the portfolio
limits.
x. Inverse/Leveraged Funds: While a regular index fund moves in tandem with the
benchmark index, the returns of an inverse index fund shift in the opposite
direction. It is nothing but selling your shares when the stock goes down, only to
repurchase them at an even lesser cost (to hold until the price goes up again).
xi. Asset Allocation Funds: Combining debt, equity and even gold in an optimum
ratio, this is a greatly flexible fund. Based on a pre-set formula or fund manager’s
inferences based on the current market trends, asset allocation funds can regulate
the equity-debt distribution. It is almost like hybrid funds but requires great
expertise in choosing and allocation of the bonds and stocks from the fund
manager.
xii. Exchange-traded Funds: It belongs to the index funds family and is bought and
sold on exchanges. Exchange-traded Funds have unlocked a new world of
investment prospects, enabling investors to gain extensive exposure to stock
markets abroad as well as specialized sectors. An ETF is like a mutual fund that
can be traded in real-time at a price that may rise or fall many times in a day.
Life insurance:
a. Waiver of premium: This feature pays the premium of a policy if you become seriously
ill or disabled.
b. Accelerated death benefit: This feature allows you to receive cash advances against the
death benefit of your policy if you're diagnosed with a terminal illness. Many people with
this benefit use the money to help pay for treatment and other expenses when they have
only a short time to live.
c. Guaranteed purchase option: With this feature, you can purchase coverage at designated
future dates or life events without proving you're in good health.
d. Long-term care riders. Some life products include this option, which allows you to use
the benefits of your policy to pay for long-term care in exchange for a reduced life
benefit.
e. Spouse or child term riders: Life policies with this feature allow you to purchase term
life insurance for your spouse or dependent child, up to age 26. This option can be a
more affordable way to purchase coverage if you can't afford separate policies.
f. Cash value plans: This type of policy pays out upon your death and also accumulates
value during your lifetime. You can use the cash value as a tax-sheltered investment, as a
fund from which you can borrow and use to pay the policy premiums later.
g. Mortgage protection: This feature, typically found on term life policies, will pay your
mortgage if you die.
h. Cash withdrawals and loans: Many universal and whole life policies allow you to
withdraw or borrow money, using the cash value of the policy as collateral. Interest rates
tend to be relatively low. You can also use the cash value of your life policy to pay your
premiums if you need or want to stop paying premiums for a period of time. You must
pay back the loan or your beneficiaries will receive a reduced death benefit.
i. Survivor support services: Some life policies offer services that provide objective
financial and legal assistance to beneficiaries.
j. Employee assistance programs: This feature makes resources available to you for
problems that can affect your personal and professional life. Resources are usually free
and help address issues such as substance abuse, stress, marital problems, legal concerns
and major life events.
The advantages of life insurance are:
a. Risk Coverage: Insurance provides risk coverage to the insured family in form of
monetary compensation in lieu of premium paid.
b. Difference plans for different uses: Insurance companies offer a different type of plan to
the insured depending on his need for insurance. More benefits come with the more
premium.
c. Cover for Health Expenses: These policies also cover hospitalization expenses and
critical illness treatment.
d. Promotes Savings/ Helps in Wealth creation: Insurance policies also come with the
saving plan i.e. they invest your money in profitable ventures.
e. Guaranteed Income: Insurance policies come with the guaranteed sum assured amount
which is payable on happening of the event.
f. Loan Facility: Insurance companies provide the option to the insured that they can
borrow a certain sum of amount. This option is available on selected policies only.
g. Tax Benefits: Insurance premium is tax deductible under section 80C of the income tax
Act, 1961.
a. Term insurance plan: Term insurance plan are those plan that is purchased for a
fixed period of time, say 10, 20 or 30 years. As these policies don’t carry any cash
value their policies do not carry any maturity benefits, hence their policies are
cheaper as compared to other policies. This policy turns beneficial only on the
occurrence of the event.
b. Endowment policy: The only difference between the term insurance plan and the
endowment policy is that endowment policy comes with the extra benefit that the
policyholder will receive a lump sum amount in case if he survives until the date
of maturity. Rest details of term policy are same and also applicable to an
endowment policy.
c. Unit Linked Insurance Plan: These plans offer policyholder to build wealth in
addition to life security. Premium paid into this policy is bifurcated into two parts,
one for the purpose of Life insurance and another for the purpose of building
wealth. This plan offers to partially withdraw the amount.
d. Money Back Policy: In a money back plan, the insured person gets a percentage
of sum assured at regular intervals, instead of getting the lump sum amount at the
end of the term. It is an endowment plan with the benefit of liquidity. This policy
is suitable for risk-averse individuals who wish to save through an insurance plan
and also maintain liquidity throughout. In case of death of the insured person, the
nominee gets the entire sum assured and the survival benefits are not deducted.
e. Whole Life Policy: Unlike other policies which expire at the end of a specified
period of time, this policy extends up to the whole life of the insured. This policy
also provides the survival benefit to the insured. In this type of policy, the
policyholder has an option to partially withdraw the sum insured. Policyholder
also has the option to borrow sum against the policy.
f. Annuity/ Pension Plan: Under this policy, the amount collected in the form of a
premium is accumulated as assets and distributed to the policyholder in form of
income by way of annuity or lump sum depending on the instruction of insured.
Real estate
The term “real estate” is defined as land and any buildings or structures on it. It is also
referred to as realty. It covers residential housing, commercial offices, trading spaces
such as theatres, hotels and restaurants, retail outlets, industrial buildings such as
factories and government buildings. Real estate involves the purchase, sale, and
development of land, residential and non-residential buildings.
It is divided as follows:
A. Precious metals: Precious metals are metals that are rare and have a high
economic value, due to various factors, including their scarcity, use in industrial
processes, and role throughout history as a store of value. The most popular precious
metals with investors are gold, platinum, and silver.
The advantages are: Historically, they have been good hedges against inflation.
Also, they are highly liquid with very low trading commissions. Investment in gold and
silver, however, has no tax advantage associated with them. They are highly liquid and
are aesthetically attractive. Moreover, they are durable, easy to own anonymously, to
subdivide into small piece that are valuable and easy to authenticate.
The disadvantages are: They do not provide regular current income, There is no
tax advantage associated with them, There may be a possibility of being cheated and
Gold and silver have not kept up with inflation in recent times.
a. Art Objects and antiques: Objects which possess aesthetic appeal because their
production requires skill, taste, creativity talent and imagination may be referred to
as art objects. According to this definition, paintings, sculptures, etchings may be
regarded as art objects. Some of these objects due to their historical importance are
classified as antiques. The value of an art object is a function of its aesthetic appeal,
rarity, reputation of the creator, physical conditions and fashion.
i. Art works hardly depreciate in value. In fact, art prices are known to appreciate over a
period of time.
ii. Since art prices do not depend on other possible components of a portfolio, they act as a
cushion when other markets are not doing well.
iii. It is a good method for diversification.
iv. It beats inflation since it gains capital value above the average rate of inflation.
v. No Market Fluctuations. Stock market corrections, volatility, and other financial
fluctuations are nonexistent in the art world.
i. Not anyone can invest in art. It requires a certain level of knowledge and expertise.
ii. The fact that it depends largely on public tastes and other external factors, make it a fairly
speculative investment.
iii. Art cannot be resold quickly for a profit.
iv. It needs a high level of maintenance, storage as well as security.
v. There’s no guarantee it will appreciate. The art world is a very fickle environment. New
or established artists can quickly fall out of favor as quickly as they rose.
SECURITY ANALYSIS -INTRODUCTION
Security analysis is the analysis of tradable financial instruments called securities. It deals with
finding the proper value of individual securities (i.e., stocks and bonds). These are usually classified
into debt securities, equities, or some hybrid of the two.
A prospective investor as well as an existing shareholder is interested more in knowing “What the
price should be” or what is the real worth of a share. So that a ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ decision can be
made. In a bid to answer this question and predict share price, the following three approaches
to security valuation have evolved over the years.
Fundamental Analysis :
Technical Analysis :
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis is based on the premise that in the long run true or fair value of an equity
share is equal to its intrinsic value. The intrinsic value of an asset is the present value of all
expected future cash inflows (or earnings) from that asset. In case of an equity share it will be
equal to the present value all expected future earnings (in the form of dividend, capital gain
etc.) from that share because equity shares have infinite life. The expected earnings from an
equity share depend upon a variety of economy wide, industry wide and company specific
factors.
Therefore fundamental analysis involves in-depth analysis of all possible factors having a
bearing on company’s profitability and future prospects and hence on share price (theoretical
or fair price). Fundamental analysts forecast, among other things, future level of the economy’s
GDP, future sales and earnings of a large number of industries and earnings of a large number
of companies. Eventually such forecasts are converted to estimate the expected cash inflows
from the shares of these companies.
Top down approach : with this approach the financial analysts are first involved in making
forecasts for the economy, then for the industries and finally for the companies. The industry
forecasts are based on the forecasts of the economy. Further a company’s forecasts are based
on the forecasts of the economy as well as the concerned industry.
Company analysis actually provides the indication of the estimated value & potential of the
company along with the comprehension of its financial variables. Common stock can be valued
by the investors by using dividend discount model. Similarly earnings multiplier model can be
used for estimation of intrinsic value for a short run. Intrinsic value is the relation between
price per share and estimated earnings per share (EPS).
Major financial data about company is obtained from its financial statements while doing the
process of company analysis. Following are included in the category of financial statements.
• Balance Sheet
• Income Statement
• Cash Flow Statement
The balance sheet represents the Portfolio of assets and liabilities & owner’s equity of a
company at particular point of time. The accounting conventions dictate the amounts at which
items are carried on the balance sheets. Cash is the real dollar amount while marketable
securities can be at market value or cost. Assets and stockholders equity are based on the book
value. The careful analysis of the balance sheet of a company is important for the investors.
The investors want to know those companies which are really profitable and are different from
the ones which pump up their performance by taking too much debt whose recovery is a big
issue. Balance sheet is really important to analyze while doing company analysis for making
investment.
Income Statement
In Company analysis process Investors frequently use income statement to evaluate the current
performance of management and forecasting of the future profitability of the company. The
flows for certain period (one year) are represented by the income statement.
The investors are more interested for the After-tax net income item of the income statement
which is divided by the number of common shares outstanding to ascertain the earnings per
share. The success of the company is viewed from the earnings from its continuing operations
and these earnings are mostly reported as earnings in the financial press. Nonrecurring income
is kept separate from the continuing income.
The cash flow statement is the third financial statement of the company which includes the
items of the balance sheet and income statement as well as other ones. It provides the picture
of the travelling of the cash in and out of the company. There are three part of cash flow
statement which are
The quality of earnings is examined by the investors with the help of cash flow statement. For
example if inventories are increasing more quickly than sales this indicate serious problem by
likely softening of the demand. Similarly cutting back of capital expenditures by a company
indicate problem. Moreover it is also problematic if the accounts receivables increase more
quickly than the sales which shows the poor recovery of the debts by the company.
Industry Analysis
Industry analysis is a market assessment tool used by businesses and analysts to understand
the competitive dynamics of an industry. It helps them get a sense of what is happening in an
industry, e.g., demand-supply statistics, degree of competition within the industry, state of
competition of the industry with other emerging industries, future prospects of the industry
taking into account technological changes, credit system within the industry, and the
influence of external factors on the industry.
One of the most famous models ever developed for industry analysis, famously known as
Porter’s 5 Forces, was introduced by Michael Porter in his 1980 book “Competitive Strategy:
Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors.”
According to Porter, analysis of the five forces gives an accurate impression of the industry
and makes analysis easier. In our Corporate & Business Strategy course, we cover these five
forces and an additional force — power of complementary good/service providers.
The number of participants in the industry and their respective market shares are a direct
representation of the competitiveness of the industry. These are directly affected by all the
factors mentioned above. Lack of differentiation in products tends to add to the intensity of
competition. High exit costs such as high fixed assets, government restrictions, labor unions,
etc. also make the competitors fight the battle a little harder.
This indicates the ease with which new firms can enter the market of a particular industry. If it
is easy to enter an industry, companies face the constant risk of new competitors. If the entry
is difficult, whichever company enjoys little competitive advantage reaps the benefits for a
longer period. Also, under difficult entry circumstances, companies face a constant set of
competitors.
This refers to the bargaining power of suppliers. If the industry relies on a small number of
suppliers, they enjoy a considerable amount of bargaining power. This can particularly affect
small businesses because it directly influences the quality and the price of the final product.
4. Bargaining power of buyers
The complete opposite happens when the bargaining power lies with the customers. If
consumers/buyers enjoy market power, they are in a position to negotiate lower prices, better
quality, or additional services and discounts. This is the case in an industry with more
competitors but with a single buyer constituting a large share of the industry’s sales.
The industry is always competing with another industry producing a similar substitute product.
Hence, all firms in an industry have potential competitors from other industries. This takes a
toll on their profitability because they are unable to charge exorbitant prices. Substitutes can
take two forms – products with the same function/quality but lesser price, or products of the
same price but of better quality or providing more utility.
2. SWOT Analysis
SWOT Analysis stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats. It can be a
great way of summarizing various industry forces and determining their implications for the
business in question.
Industry analysis enables a company to develop a competitive strategy that best defends against
the competitive forces or influences them in its favour. The key to developing a competitive
strategy is to understand the sources of the competitive forces.
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
In business, economic analysis allows to incorporate elements from the economic environment
such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates and GDP growth into the corporate planning.
Every organization is an open system that impact and is impacted by the external context. This
means that a proper assessment of economic variables facilitates the identification of
opportunities and threats that could affect the company’s performance.
Economic Analysis Factors
Savings and investment:
Growth of an economy requires proper amount of investments which in turn is dependent upon
amount of domestic savings. The amount of savings is favorably related to investment in a
country. The level of investment in the economy and the proportion of investment in capital
market is major area of concern for investment analysts. The level of investment in the
economy is equal to: Domestic savings + inflow of foreign capital - investment made abroad.
Stock market is an important channel to mobilize savings, from the individuals who have
excess of it, to the individual or corporate, who have deficit of it. Savings are distributed over
various assets like equity shares, bonds, small savings schemes, bank deposits, mutual fund
units, real estates, bullion etc. The demand for corporate securities has an important bearing on
stock prices movements. Greater the allocation of equity in investment, favorable impact it
have on stock prices.
Price level and Inflation:
The inflation rate is defined as the rate of change in the price level. Most economies face
positive rates of inflation year after year. The price level, in turn, is measured by a price index,
which measures the level of prices of goods and services at given time. The numbers of items
included in a price index vary depending on the objective of the index. Usually three kinds of
price indexes, having particular advantages and uses are periodically reported by government
sources. The first index is called the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the average
retail prices paid by consumers for goods and services bought by them. A couple of thousand
items, typically bought by an average household, are included in this index.
Infrastructure facilities and arrangements play an important role in growth of industry and
agriculture sector. A wide network of communication system, regular supply or power, a well
developed transportation system (railways, transportation, road network, inland waterways,
port facilities, air links and telecommunication system) boost the industrial production and
improves the growth of the economy. Banking and financial sector should be sound enough to
provide adequate support to industry and agriculture. The government has liberalized its policy
regarding the communication, transport and power sector for foreign investment. Thus, good
infrastructure facilities affect the stock market favorable.
Demographic factors:
The demographic data details about the population by age, occupation, literacy and geographic
location. These factors are studied to forecast the demand for the consumer goods. The data
related to population indicates the availability of work force. The cheap labor force in India has
encouraged many multinationals to start their ventures. Population, by providing labor and
demand for products, affects the industry and stock market.
Technical analysis :
Technical Analysis can be defined as an art and science of forecasting future prices based on
an examination of the past price movements. Technical analysis is not astrology for predicting
prices. Technical analysis is based on analyzing current demand-supply of commodities,
stocks, indices, futures or any tradable instrument. Technical analysis involve putting stock
information like prices, volumes and open interest on a chart and applying various
patterns and indicators to it in order to assess the future price movements.
The time frame in which technical analysis is applied may range from intraday (1-
minute, 5-minutes, 10-minutes, 15-minutes, 30-minutes or hourly), daily, weekly or monthly
price data to many years.
Technical analysis is criticized for considering only prices and ignoring the fundamental
analysis of the company, economy etc. Technical analysis assumes that, at any given time, a
stock’s price reflects everything that has or could affect the company - including fundamental
factors. The market is driven by mass psychology and pulses with the fl ow of human
emotions. Emotions may respond rapidly to extreme events, but normally change gradually
over time. It is believed that the company’s fundamentals, along with broader economic
factors and market psychology, are all priced into the stock, removing the need to actually
consider these factors separately. This only leaves the analysis of price movement, which
technical theory views as a product of the supply and demand for a particular stock in the
market.
Trade with the trend” is the basic logic behind technical analysis. Once a trend has
been established, the future price movement is more likely to be in the same direction as the
trend than to be against it. Technical analysts frame strategies based on this assumption only.
People have been using charts and patterns for several decades to demonstrate patterns in price
movements that often repeat themselves. The repetitive nature of price movements is
attributed to market psychology; in other words, market participants tend to provide a
consistent reaction to similar market stimuli over time. Technical analysis uses chart patterns
to analyze market movements and understand trends.
Technical analysis charts:
Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising differing forms
of technical chart types and other chart functions. Interpreting charts can be intimidating for novice
traders, so understanding basic technical analysis is essential. This article reveals popular types of
technical analysis charts used in forex trading, outlining the foundations and uses of these chart
types
There are three main types of technical analysis charts: candlestick, bar, and line charts. They are
all created using the same price data but display the data in different ways. As a result, they involve
different types of technical analysis to help traders make informed decisions across forex, stocks,
indices and commodities markets.
Line Charts
A line chart typically displays closing prices and nothing else. Each closing price is linked to the
previous closing price to make a continuous line that is easy to follow.
This type of chart is often used for television, newspapers and many web articles because it is
simple and easy to digest. It provides less information than candlestick or bar charts but it is better
for viewing at a glance for a simplistic market view.
Another advantage of the line chart is that it can assist in managing the emotions of trading by
selecting a neutral colour, like the blue chart depicted above. This is because the line chart
eliminates ‘choppy’ movements in different colours as seen in the bar and candlestick charts.
Expert tip: Due to the line chart illustrating only closed prices, more experienced traders will
consider a line chart to map out the daily closing prices or for situations when the analyst wants to
inspect the sub-waves without the noise.
Bar (HLOC) Charts
A bar chart displays the high, low, open and closing (HLOC) prices for each period designated for
the bar. The vertical line is created by the high and low price for the bar. The dash to the left of the
bar was the opening price and the dash to the right signals the closing price.
Being able to identify whether a bar closes up (green) or down (red), indicates to the trader the
market sentiment (bullish/bearish) for that period.
The similarities between this chart type and a candlestick chart are visible when they are viewed
side by side, but a bar chart is better for a cleaner market view. By removing the bolded colour
from the chart, traders can view market trends with an uncomplicated outlook.
Candlestick Charts
A candlestick chart displays the high, low, open and closing (HLOC) prices for each period
designated for the candle. The “body” of each candlestick represents the opening and closing prices
while the candle “wicks” display the high and low prices for each period.
The colour of each candle depends on the applied settings, but most charting packages will use
green and red as the default colours. The green candles reflect that price closed higher than where
it opened (often called a bullish candle), and every candle that is red means the price closed lower
than where it opened (often called a bearish candle).
The candlestick chart is by far the most popular type of chart used in forex technical analysis as it
provides the trader with more information while remaining easy to view at a glance.
Dow Theory- Meaning and Use
Dow Theory (Dow Jones Theory) is a trading approach developed by Charles Dow. Dow
Theory is the basis of technical analysis of financial markets. The basic idea of Dow Theory
is that market price action reflects all available information and the market price movement is
comprised of three main trends.
The Dow Theory primarily helps traders identify market trends with greater accuracy, so they
can take advantage of potential price action points. It also helps traders act with caution and
not move against the market trends. And above all, the Dow Theory stresses on the
importance of the closing price as a good indicator of the general sentiment of the market.
This is because throughout any trading day, trades can happen all over the place. But as the
closing bell draws nearer, most market participants will want to conform with the trend.
Accordingly, the closing price of a stock is determined, depending on how the traders react as
the trading day draws to a close. This can give you a great deal of insight into where the
market is heading collectively. With these inputs, you can even develop Dow Jones trading
strategies that help you make well-informed trading decisions.
Basic Tenets of Dow Theory
a. The Averages Discount Everything.: Every knowable factor that may possibly affect both
demand and supply is reflected in the market price.
b. The Market Has Three Trends: According to Dow an uptrend is consistently rising peaks
and troughs. And a downtrend is consistently rising lowering peaks and troughs. Dow
believed that laws of action and reaction apply to the markets just as they do to the physical
universe, meaning that each significant movement is followed by a certain pullback. Dow
considered a trend to have three parts:
• Primary (compared to tide, reaching further and further inland until the ultimate point
is reached).
• Secondary (compared to waves and representing corrections in the primary trend,
normally retracing between one-third and two-thirds of the previous trend movement
and most frequently about half of the previous move)
• Minor (ripples) (fluctuations in the secondary trend).
c. Major Trends Have Three Phases: Dow mainly paid attention to the primary (major) trends
in which he distinguished three phases:
• Accumulation phase – the most astute investors are entering the market feeling the
change in the current market direction.
• Public participation phase – a majority of technicians begin to join in as the price is
rapidly advancing.
• Distribution phase – a new direction is now commonly recognized and well hiked;
economic news are all confirming which all ends up in increasing speculative volume
and wide public's participation.
d. The Averages Must Confirm Each Other: Dow used to say that unless both Industrial and
Rail Averages exceed a previous peak, there is no confirmation of inception or continuation
of a bull market. Signals did no have to occur simultaneously, but the quicker one followed
another – the stronger the confirmation was.
e. Volume Must Confirm the Trend: Volume increases or diminishes according to whether
the price is moving in direction of a trend or in reverse. Dow considered volume a secondary
indicator. His buy or sell signals were based on closing prices.
f. A Trend Is Assumed to Be Contiunous Until Definite Signals of Its Reversal: The overall
technical approach in market analysis is based upon the idea that trends continue in motion
until there is an external force causing it to change its direction - just like any other physical
objects. And of course there are reversal signals to be looking for.
Dow only took in consideration closing prices. Averages had to close higher than a previous
peak or lower than a previous trough to be significant. Intraday penetrations did not count.
g. All news is discounted in the stock market: Prices know it all. All possible information and
expectations are factored into prices beforehand.
Efficient Market Hypothesis- Meaning
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) essentially says that all known information about
investment securities, such as stocks, is already factored into the prices of those securities.
Therefore, assuming this is true, no amount of analysis can give an investor an edge over
other investors, collectively known as "the market."
EMH does not require that investors be rational; it says that individual investors will act
randomly, but as a whole, the market is always "right." In simple terms, "efficient" implies
"normal." For example, an unusual reaction to unusual information is normal. If a crowd
suddenly starts running in one direction, it's normal for you to run in that direction as well,
even if there isn't a rational reason for doing so.
Efficient Market Hypothesis- Assumptions
The efficient market hypothesis only holds if the following assumptions are met:
• All market participants have equal access to historical data on stock prices, and both
public and private information is available. This condition proves that no arbitrage
opportunity is available. Thus, none of the investors has an advantage over the others
in making investment decisions.
• The efficient market hypothesis only holds if investors are rational, i.e., investors are
risk averse. To put it simply, if there are two investments of the same return but of
different risk, a rational investor will always prefer the one with lower risk.
• It is impossible to beat the market in the long run, which means that it is impossible in
the long term to consistently receive returns higher than the market average.
• Stock prices change randomly, i.e., trends or patterns in the past do not allow
someone to forecast their movements in the future. Therefore, the efficient market
hypothesis makes both technical and fundamental analysis completely useless.
Proponents of EMH
After EMH was published by Fama in the 1960s, it remained extremely popular in both
economic and business studies – and most research seemed to back up the assumptions made
by EMH.
Even today, there are still arguments in favour of EMH, including:
• The outperformance of passive funds: The increasing popularity of passive investing
through mutual funds and ETFs is often cited as evidence that people still support EMH.
In theory, if EMH is incorrect and markets are inefficient, then active funds should gain
higher returns than passive funds. However, this often isn’t the case over a long time
period. A study by Morningstar found that over the ten-year period ending June 2019,
just 23% of active funds surpassed the average returns of their passive counterpart.1
Proponents of EMH cite this study, and others like it, as evidence that markets are
efficient and that over the longer-term, EMH holds up. However, an argument has been
made that if passive investing grows too much, it could have an adverse impact on the
efficiency of markets. As active investors support research, trading and market
monitoring, all of which is vital for well-functioning markets. For a truly efficient
market, there needs to be a mix of both passive and active participants. While active
investors are considered ‘informed’ – in that they have collected all the information
available in order to exploit market inefficiencies – they are still dependant on other
‘uninformed’ traders to take the other side of their trade. But if people opt out of this
risk by trading financial markets passively, then there will be fewer opportunities in
theory. It remains to be seen whether regulatory bodies will take action on the growing
imbalance between active and passive funds in order to maintain market efficiency. The
Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has previously said that it would consider corporate
governance of how many shares can be owned by passive funds in order to encourage
active investing.
• The presence of arbitrage opportunities: Another argument in favour of EMH is the
presence of arbitragers. These are individuals who buy an asset from one marketplace
and sell the same asset in another to take advantage of price differences. Arbitragers
will look out for an asset whose price is out of line with expectations and bring it back
to its true value – capitalising on the market move as it happens. If we use a long
position as an example, these arbitragers would identify stocks that are trading below
their true value, in order to ‘buy low and sell high’. It is these traders who drive the
asset toward its fundamental value. This is the strategy that underpins the EMH theory,
as it relies on individuals to ensure that market prices reflect the available information
accurately.
Critics of EMH
Over the years, many criticisms of EMH have emerged. We’ve taken a look at just a few of the
popular arguments against the theory, which include:
• Market bubbles and crashes: Speculative bubbles occur when an asset’s price increases
beyond its fair value to the extent that, when the market correction occurs, prices fall
rapidly and a financial crash takes place. According to the efficient market hypothesis,
market bubbles and financial crashes should not occur. In fact, the theory would argue
they cannot exist as an asset’s price is always accurate. For example, Fama actually
argued that the 2008 financial crisis was a result of an impending recession rather than
a credit bubble. He argued that it cannot have been a speculative bubble, as this would
be predictable rather than just seen in hindsight. However, many critiques of Fama’s
explanation point out that the credit bubble was predictable, as evidenced by those who
bet against the credit default option market and made millions. When a financial bubble
occurs, it does not mean that there is no consensus about the price of an asset, it just
means that the consensus is wrong. In the case of the 2008 financial crash, the market
participants were ignoring vital market information in order to keep boosting the credit
options market. This prospect goes against everything that EMH stands for.
• Market anomalies: Market anomalies describe a situation in which there is a difference
between a share price’s trajectory as set out by EMH, and its actual behaviour. In
practice, efficient markets are near impossible to maintain, and the presence of
anomalies is a symptom of this. Market anomalies occur for different reasons, at
different times and have different effects. But they all prove that markets are not always
efficient, and that individuals do not always act rationally. If markets were truly rational
then calendar anomalies such as the January effect, would not exist – because they have
no true explanation behind them, other than that people believe they will happen. In
some respects, they are a self-fulfilling prophecy. And if the market price contained all
available information then post-earnings-announcement drift would not have such a
hold over the market. This anomaly in particular contradicts EMH theory, as it describes
the phenomena of pricing continuing to move in the direction of an earnings surprise.
If EMH were accurate, then new information would be priced in immediately, however
this anomaly shows that markets can be slower to adjust.
• Behavioural economics: The introduction of the field of behavioural economics has
also been used to criticise EMH. The idea that market participants are, on the whole,
rational has increasingly come into question as we learn more and more about the
psychology of trading. Behavioural economics also goes some way to explaining the
market anomalies described above. Social pressures can cause individuals to make
irrational decisions, which can cause traders to make errors and take on a larger amount
of risk than they otherwise would. Especially the phenomena of herding, which
describes individuals ‘jumping on the bandwagon’, is evidence that not all decisions
are rational and based on information. Even factors such as a trader or investor’s
personality traits or emotions can have a significant impact on how they behave and the
way they interact with the market.
• Investors have beaten the market: There are investors who have consistently beaten the
average market. Of course, the most famous is Warren Buffett – his company Berkshire
Hathaway outperformed the S&P index 73% of the time between 2008 and 2018.
Buffett does not believe the EMH himself and has been a vocal critic of the passive
approach to investing. Instead Buffett takes a value investing approach, which seeks to
identify undervalued stocks through fundamental analysis. Buffett does concede that
EMH is a persuasive enough argument that it is understandable why many investors
choose index funds and ETFs. Buffett himself has never invested in an index fund.
Types of Market Forms
There are three forms of EMH: weak, semi-strong, and strong:
• Weak Form EMH: Suggests that all past information is priced into securities.
Fundamental analysis of securities can provide an investor with information to produce
returns above market averages in the short term, but there are no "patterns" that exist.
Therefore, fundamental analysis does not provide long-term advantage and technical
analysis will not work.
• Semi-Strong Form EMH: Implies that neither fundamental analysis nor technical
analysis can provide an advantage for an investor and that new information is instantly
priced in to securities.
• Strong Form EMH. Says that all information, both public and private, is priced into
stocks and that no investor can gain advantage over the market as a whole. Strong Form
EMH does not say some investors or money managers are incapable of capturing
abnormally high returns because that there are always outliers included in the averages.
EMH does not say that no investors can outperform the market; it says that there are outliers
that can beat the market averages; however, there are also outliers that dramatically lose to the
market. The majority is closer to the median. Those who "win" are lucky and those who "lose"
are unlucky.
Benefits of an efficient market
• Saves Time: Once you are aware that stock markets are efficient than you do not need
to spend too much in analyzing the balance sheet, profit and loss accounts, and technical
charts of stocks as according to this theory they are of no use and one cannot make an
abnormal return by taking the decision on the basis of these tools. In simple words just
like in speculation you place bets on your gut feeling in the same way according to this
theory you should buy or sell stocks according to a gut feeling which requires no
research and analysis.
• Save Money of Innocent Investors: The first and foremost advantage of the efficient
market hypothesis is that it helps in saving money of innocent people who try to enter
into the stock market thinking that they can earn huge money by following the advice
of technical analyst or fundamental analyst as in the case of stock markets small retail
investors come into the stock market at the end of bull markets and end up buying stocks
at inflated levels only to sell them in huge losses. In simple words, the efficient market
hypothesis makes it clear that the stock market should be viewed as a speculative game
and not a place where one can earn a consistent abnormal return by buying undervalued
stocks and selling overvalued stock.
• Neutralizes Self Made Experts: Another benefit of this theory is that once you know
that the stock market is efficient and reflects the true value of stocks that you will not
get into the trap of buying blindly any stock on the basis of the recommendation of self-
made experts who keep giving advice regarding stocks on various social media
platforms as the majority of people end up burning their pocket by investing in the
stocks on the basis of the recommendation of self-made experts.
Assumptions
(1) The market is efficient and all investors have in their knowledge all the facts about the stock
market and so an investor can continuously make superior returns either by predicting past
behaviour of stocks through technical analysis or by fundamental analysis of internal company
management or by finding out the intrinsic value of shares. Thus, all investors are in equal
category.
(2) All investors before making any investments have a common goal. This is the avoidance of
risk because they are risk averse.
(3) All investors would like to earn the maximum rate of return that they can achieve from their
investments.
(4) The investors base their decisions on the expected rate of return of an investment. The
expected rate of return can be found out by finding out the purchase price of a security dividend
by the income per year and by adding annual capital gains. It is also necessary to know the
standard deviation of the rate of return expected by an investor and the rate of return which is
being offered on the investment. The rate of return and standard deviation are important
parameters for finding out whether the investment is worthwhile for a person. Markowitz
brought out the theory that it was a useful insight to find out how the security returns are
correlated to each other. By combining the assets in such a way that they give the lowest risk
maximum returns could be brought out by the investor. From the above, it is clear that every
investor assumes that while making an investment he will combine his investments in such a
way that he gets a maximum return and is surrounded by minimum risk.
(5) The investor assumes that greater or larger the return that he achieves on his investments,
the higher the risk factor surrounds him. On the contrary, when risks are low the return can also
be expected to be low.
(6) The investor can reduce his risk if he adds investment to his portfolio.
(7) An investor should be able to get higher return for each level of risk “by determining the
efficient set of securities”.
Pros and Cons of Markowitz theory
Pros Explained
No timing the market: Most investors want to maximize their returns for minimal risk but don't
have the time, knowledge, or emotional distance to be successful at market timing.
Suitable for average investor: An average investor can benefit from applying MPT or
incorporating its key ideas to achieve a balanced portfolio that is set up for long-term growth.
Decreases risk in investing: Spreading your investments across assets that aren't positively
correlated protects you from changes in the market.
Cons Explained
Not based on modern data: The concepts of risk, reward, and correlation that underlie MPT are
derived from historical data. This data may not be applicable to new circumstances in the
market.
Standardized assumptions: MPT functions bases on a standardized set of assumptions about
market behavior. These assumptions may not bear out in a constantly changing financial
climate.
Problem 1: Stocks L and M have yielded the following returns for past 2 years.
Years Stock L Stock M
(Returns) (Returns)
2014 12% 14%
2015 18% 12%
a. What is the expected return on portfolio made up of 60% of Stock L and 40% of Stock M
b. Find out the standard deviation of each stock
Problem 2: The expected rate of returns and possibilities of their occurrence for Alpha Co.
and Beta Co. stocks are given below:
Possibility of occurrence Returns of Alpha Co. stock Returns of Beta Co. stock
0.05 -2 -3
0.20 9 6
0.50 12 11
0.20 15 14
0.05 26 19
a. Find out the expected rate of return for Alpha Co. and Beta Co. stocks
b. If an investor invests equally in both the stocks what would be the return?
c. If the proportion is changed to 25% and 75% and then 75% and 25% what would be the
expected rate of return?
Problem 3: Stocks X and Y displays the following returns over the past 3 years
Years X (Returns) Y (Returns)
2010 14% 12%
2011 17% 19%
2012 20% 18%
Problem 5: Stocks X and Y displayed the following returns over the past 3 years:
Years Stock X Stock Y
2010 16% 13%
2011 18% 21%
2012 22% 19%
a. What is the expected return on a portfolio made up of 40% of X and 60% of Y?
b. What is the Standard Deviation of each stock?
c. Determine the correlation of co-efficient and covariance of X and Y
d. What is the portfolio risk of a portfolio made up of 40% of X and 60% of Y
Problem 6: A Financial analyst is analyzing two investment alternatives Stock Y and Z, the
estimated rates of returns and their chances of occurrences are given below
• Using the CAPM in investment appraisal: Problems can arise in using the CAPM to
calculate a project-specific discount rate. For example, one common difficulty is
finding suitable proxy betas, since proxy companies very rarely undertake only one
business activity. The proxy beta for a proposed investment project must be
disentangled from the company’s equity beta. One way to do this is to treat the equity
beta as a portfolio beta (βp), an average of the betas of several different areas of proxy
company activity, weighted by the relative share of the proxy company market value
arising from each activity.
Problems on CAPM
1) Security J has a beta of 0.75 while Security K has beta of 1.45. Calculate the respected
rate of return for these securities assuming that the risk free rate of return is 5 % expected
return on the market is 14 %
• The slope of the Capital Market Line(CML) is the Sharpe Ratio of the market
portfolio.
• The efficient frontier represents combinations of risky assets.
• If we draw a line from the risk-free rate of return, which is tangential to the efficient
frontier, we get the Capital Market Line. The point of tangency is the most efficient
portfolio.
• Moving up the CML will increase the risk of the portfolio, and moving down will
decrease the risk. Subsequently, the return expectation will also increase or decrease,
respectively.
All investors will choose the same market portfolio, given a specific mix of assets and the
associated risk with them.
Capital Market Line- Formula
where,
Calculate the return and risk of the portfolio under the single index model if the return on market
index is 16.4% and the standard deviation of return on market index is 14%
Sharpe Theory Problem 2: Consider a portfolio of 6 securities with the following characteristics
Securities Weightage αi βiResidual
Variance
σ2
1 0.10 -0.28 0.91 23
2 0.15 -0.76 0.87 60
3 0.20 2.52 1.17 52
4 0.10 0.16 0.97 86
5 0.25 1.55 1.07 67
6 0.20 0.47 0.86 82
Assuming return on Market Index to be 14.5% and the S.D. of returns on market index to be 16%,
calculate portfolio return and risk under single index model.