Professional Documents
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Uncertainty and Alternative Future States
• A security can be thought of as an asset class that will yield
different results in different states of the economy in the
future.
• 1 stock = 1 possible future vector
• Example: VNM yield = (-10%, 3%, 40%) depending on the state of the economy.
• A row vector
• For example:
• Assume there are 3 states in the future. If there are only 3 assets in the market (1,1,1), (1,0,0) and (0,1,1),
this capital market is incomplete.
• (1,1,1) risk-free assets (1)
• (1,0,0) unemployment insurance claim (2)
• (0,1,1) corporate bonds (3)
• 1 = 2+3 (1st order relation) => not independent => Incomplete market
Complete Capital Market
• What if it's not complete?
• impossible to create a number of new securities from those in the incomplete market.
• For example, (1,1,1) (1,0,0) and (0,1,1) do not produce (0,1,0). Then (0,1,0) can exist many different
values, not identical.
• If there is one more (0,1,3), 4 securities will create a complete market.
• How to create triples (1,0,0), (0,1,0) and (0,0,1) , from the above 4 securities?
• If the market is perfect, it is possible to create any security (a,b,c) from the above
3 types of securities.
• Example buy/sell short security a (1,0,0), b (0,1,0) and c (0,0.1)
Complete Capital Market
time preference
Optimal Portfolio Decisions
• σ Π𝑠 𝑈(𝑄𝑆 ): 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙′ 𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑛𝑑 − 𝑜𝑓 − 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑤𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑡ℎ
• QS: number of securities paying $1 if state s occurs.
• (number of state s pure securities he buys)
• (his end-of-period wealth if state s occurs)
• How much of W0 to spend for current consumption C?
• What portfolio to hold for the future?
• Solve the problem:
Với điều kiện
u(c): consumption
+ invest ment (Utility of each limited w= consump+ sum of pay off
scenario) x n ( probs)
Optimal Portfolio Decisions
• Phương pháp nhân tử Lagrange (Lagrange multiplier)
Optimal Portfolio Decisions
Optimal Portfolio Decisions
• Với mọi trạng thái t và s
trong tương lai