INTERNATIONAL • WAR IN UKRAINE

Why Ukraine's counter-offensive is failing

The attempted Ukrainian advance through Russian lines is no longer making headway. Despite
heavy losses, Moscow's forces have regained the initiative by launching assaults since October
10 on the Donbas town of Avdiivka.

By Cédric Pietralunga
Published on October 27, 2023, at 4:00 am (Paris), updated on October 27, 2023, at
9:10 am • 6 min.

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A Ukrainian soldier of the 65th mechanized brigade in a trench of Russian forces

retaken by the Ukrainian army, near the village of Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia region, on
October 1, 2023. ROMAN PILIPEY / AFP

Close to five months after the launch of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south of the country,
Western soldiers and analysts share the same bitter observation: Kyiv's army has made very little
progress and, above all, is no longer advancing. "Despite the determined efforts of the Armed Forces
of Ukraine (AFU), five months of offensive operations have not breached Russia’s defence lines,"
observes Jack Watling, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), in a note published
on October 19. "Ukraine retains some options to make Russian dispositions uncomfortable, but it is
highly unlikely that there will be a breakthrough (...) this year," adds the ground combat specialist,
predicting the conflict will continue until 2024 or even beyond.

When the Ukrainian army launched its first assaults on Russian lines on June 4, it had high hopes for
the operation. Throughout the spring, it had been amassing men and equipment to breach the
defenses its enemy had erected along some 1,000 kilometers of the frontline. Twelve brigades,