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Estimation of Trip Attraction Rates and Models for Shopping Centers in Dhaka
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 Journal of Volume-5, Issue-1 (January-April, 2020)
Transportation Systems

www.matjournals.com http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3733088

Estimation of Trip Attraction Rates and Models for Shopping Centers in

Dhaka City
Syed Aaqib Javed1*, Mithun Debnath1, Md. Hossain Nadim1, Md. Ajwad Anwar1, Sabuj Chowdhury2
1
Lecturer, 2Assistant Professor
1,2
Department of Civil Engineering, Ahsanullah University of Science and Technology (AUST), Dhaka,
Bangladesh

*Corresponding Author: aaqib.ce@aust.edu

ABSTRACT is trip generation model [1]. Trip generation

Planning of transportation facilities for any city
depends on trip generation steps. In this paper,
trip attraction rate of six shopping centers
located at different places (Uttara, Gulshan and
Dhanmondi) in Dhaka city is determined.
Physical features like floor area (ft2), parking
space, number of shops, number of entry,
number of employees (per shop) are considered
to determine the trip attraction rate. The
number of vehicles (car) and persons entering
the shopping center on weekend and weekday
during peak hour for every 15 minutes time
interval are counted. A similar trend showed in
all the graphs between the trip rate on weekend
and weekdays. In all cases, trip rate on weekend
is higher than the trip rate on weekday. This
data used to determine the trip attraction rate
with respect to different physical features. This
trip attraction rate can be used for estimating
the traffic volume and evaluating the traffic
impacts adjacent a new shopping center. Two
regression models were also developed as a
function of different physical features to
estimate the trip attractions of the shopping
centers. The result showed that all the physical
features have a strong correlation except
number of entry. This models will be helpful in
estimating the trip attraction rate for any
shopping centers.
Keywords-- Dhaka city, shopping center, trip
attraction rate, trip generation model, transportation
lanning
INTRODUCTION
Nowadays rapid urbanization is one of the main
problems for developing countries. If the
transportation system is not properly planned, the
road network will certainly lose its capacity to
serve the continuously growing number of trips.
This will result in traffic congestion, lower free
flow speed, increased delay and road accident.
Therefore, new developments have become a major
issue with the approval of traffic impact assessment
(TIA). The first step of the fourstep transport model
models are classified into three levels: strategic,
tactical and operational ones. Trip generation
calculations at the strategic and tactical levels are
determined by the cross-classification models or
category analysis [1-2]. Transport generated trips at
tactical and operational levels is estimated by the
linear regression models and rate methods with
linear regression equations [3-4]. Linear regression
and cross-classification methods is mainly used to
estimate total number of trips in various empirical
studies [5-8]. The main objective of trip generation
is to correlate land use and trip making activity to
identify future travel pattern [9]. The method of
estimating trip generation is categorized as the
procedure of estimating trip production and trip
attraction at each Traffic Analysis Zone. Trip
attraction aims to predict the total number of trips
attracted to each zone of the study area and trip
production aims to predict the number of trips
generated by the households in the trip analysis
zone. Trip attraction is significant in considering
the impact of new establishment such as
workplace, shopping center and residential
development to the traffic engineer and urban
planner. Shopping trips are the second best
contributing part of trip attraction. This paper
constructs the comparative relation with the trip
attraction rate of the shopping centers and the
number of people per unit time coming to the
shopping center.
A proposed commercial development site
conducted several studies regarding the vehicles
generated and then are able to estimate the traffic
impact of commercial developments. The provision
adequate parking facilities to decrease the traffic
congestion on the vicinity of commercial
establishments [10]. Leasable floor area, gross
floor area, car park spaces, occupancy rate and
peak parking demands were the variables taken in
the study. The methodology of the study was to
count the number of vehicles parked in the
building, hourly parking accumulation and then the
total count were summarized in every 15 minutes.
Vehicles parked on the designated or prohibited
areas of the vicinity of the adjacent street were also
counted. A model was developed consisting of
floor area to trip rate using multiple regressions
[11]. A questionnaire survey was prepared which
consist of available commercial floor area,
residential floor area, parking slots, number of

28 Page 28-34 © MAT Journals 2020. All Rights Reserved

 Journal of
Transportation Systems
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floors, number of commercial establishments, years
in operation, occupancy rates and maintenance fee
to collect the data to know the characteristics of the
selected condominiums and for modeling purpose.
The crucial spatial characteristics has an impact on
the distance, destination and modal split of
shopping trips by the neighbourhoods and of
shopping destinations [12]. The important
independent variables consist of the number of
different stores like, consumer market,
supermarket, small land, sum of stores and large
stores in the neighbourhood. Both physical
characteristics of the area and socio-economics
characteristics of trip makers would affect the trip
generation. They developed multiple regression
models and determined that socio-economic
characteristics plays a major roleto attract the trips
and land use shows a little role [13]. The
characteristics of trip attraction at the market land
use, its influencing factors and also developed a
model of trip attraction and a model of trip delay
analysis at Dinoyo market area [14]. A model was
developed depending on the factors like quality of
goods offered, price of goods, store hours of
operation, accessibility to the shopping area,
availability of parking, goods offered and
protection from environmental influences the
modeling [15].
Trip rates manula like ITE's Trip
Generation Manual (ITE, 2008) is already
established but due to dissimilarities in land-use
pattern, socio-economic characteristics and road
network facilities, the developed trip rates and
models are not applicable in our country.
Hence, in this paper trip attraction rates of
shopping centers are determined in the context of
Bangladesh. It is difficult to consider all the factors
influencing the trip attraction rate of shopping
center like land use characteristics of the
Figure 1: Location of six shopping centers.
29 Page 28-34 © MAT Journals 2020. All Rights Reserved
Volume-5, Issue-1 (January-April, 2020)
http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3733088
surrounding area. However, physical features of the
shopping center are easy to measure and can be
included to estimate the trip attraction rate. Hourly
rates are determined with respect to gross floor
area, number of stores, number of employees,
number of gate opening and total number of
parking spaces. It is found that these physical
features have significant influence on trip
attractions [11, 15-16].
The objective of this study is to estimate
the trip attraction rate of shopping centers at
different places (Dhanmondi, Gulshan and Uttara)
in Dhaka City. This study will help for subsequent
research to be conducted by local agencies and/or
private organizations to further develop a
comprehensive urban trip attraction database of
shopping centers. This database can be used not
only for planning and design of shopping centers
for the geometric design but also for traffic control
on the roadways around the shopping centers.
Macroscopic model also develops in this study to
estimate the trip attraction rate of shopping centers.
The model will be used to estimate the trip
attraction rate of similar type of shopping centers
and for geometric design and for traffic control
schemes on the roadways around the shopping
centers.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted in six shopping
centers at Uttara, Gulshan and Dhanmondi area in
Dhaka city. The shopping centers are Plaza A.R,
Mascot Plaza, Pink city, Rajlaxmi complex, Rapa
Plaza and Metro shopping Mall. All the shopping
centers are placed in type 2 or medium size
shopping centers. The location of six shopping
centers is shown in Fig. 1.
 Journal of Volume-5, Issue-1 (January-April, 2020)
Transportation Systems

www.matjournals.com http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3733088

The number of people and vehicles
attracted to the shopping centers for various
reasons like shopping, fitness centers having food
in restaurant and for other services were counted.
Surveyors positioned themselves near the entrance
of the shopping center and counted people and
vehicles entering the shopping center in every 15
minutes interval to determine the trip attraction
rate. Two days data were collected in each
shopping center to understand the daily variation
between the trip attraction rates. Friday and
Monday was selected to observe the weekend and
weekday variation in trip rate. The survey was
carried for a length of three peak hours (4.30-7.30)
pm. The maximum hourly data were taken as peak
hour trip rates for each shopping center. Trip
attraction rate was determined with respect to
different physical features like person trips/1000
ft2/hour, person trips/shop/hour, person trips/100
employees/hour, Person trips/entry/hour and person
trips/10 parking spaces/hour. The physical features
of six shopping malls are provided in Table 1.

Table 1: Physical features of six shopping malls.

Name of the Shopping Floor area No of employees
Parking Space No of shops No of entry
center (ft2) (per shop)
Plaza A.R 13200 40 72 2 3
Mascot Plaza 14400 36 156 2 3
Pink city 16300 63 160 2 4
Rajlaxmi complex 18500 30 270 3 4
Rapa Plaza 21400 120 220 2 4
Metro shopping Mall 19300 85 200 2 4

These collected data were used for RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

developing a regression model to determine trip
attraction rate with respect to different physical
features to estimate the future trip attraction.
Equation (1) represents a typical basic model for
trip generation.
Y= a + b1 X1 + b2 X2 +. . . + bn Xn (1)
Where, Y = the dependent variable of trip
generation or attraction; X1 to Xn = the related
independent variables; for example, Floor area of
shopping centers or Number of shop; b1 to bn = the
coefficients of the respective independent variable;
and a = a constant included which is not explained
by the independent variables to represent that
portion of the value of Y.
Trip Rate Determination
Trip attraction rate was determined
with respect to different physical features. The
trip attraction rates of six shopping centers on
both weekend and weekday are shown in Table
2. In all the cases, a weekend trip attraction rate
is higher than the weekday trip attraction rate.
On weekend maximum number of people go to
shopping centers because they have more free
time and for recreational purposes with their
family. Standard deviation and average trip
attraction rate was also determined. Standard
deviation express how much the variation from
the mean in a set of value.

Table 2: Trip attraction rates of six shopping centers.

Person Person trips/ Person
Name of the Person Person trips/10
Day trips/1000 100 trips/entry/
Shopping center trips/shop/hr parking spaces/hr
ft2/hr employees/hr hr
Plaza A.R 26.8 4.9 163.9 177 88.5
Mascot Plaza 28.8 2.7 88.5 207 115
Pink city 25 2.6 63.8 204 64.8
Weekend
Rajlaxmi complex 23.5 1.6 40.2 144.7 144.7
(Friday)
Rapa Plaza 24.7 2.4 60 264 44
Metro shopping
20.5 2 49.5 198 46.6
Mall
Plaza A.R 19.4 3.6 118.5 128 64
Mascot Plaza 23.3 2.2 71.8 168 93.3
Pink city 18 1.8 45.9 147 46.7
Weekday
Rajlaxmi complex 16.5 1.1 28.3 102 102
(Monday)
Rapa Plaza 17.7 1.7 43 189 31.5
Metro shopping
15.3 1.5 37 148 34.8
Mall

The highest peak hour trip attraction rate is shown in Fig. 2. On weekend, the highest peak
(person trips/1000 ft2/hour) of six shopping centers hour person trip attraction rate was in Mascot plaza

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 Journal of Volume-5, Issue-1 (January-April, 2020)
Transportation Systems

www.matjournals.com http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3733088

with 28.8 person trips/1000 ft 2/hour and the lowest
peak hour trip attraction rate was in Metro
shopping mall with 20.5 person trips/1000 ft2/hour.
Mascot plaza attracted the highest trip attraction
rate because it covers all types of shops. The lowest
trip rate value of 15.3 person trips/1000 ft2/hour
was found in Metro shopping mall on weekdays.
Grand average of peak hour person trip attraction
rate was 21.63 person trips/1000 ft2/hour and
Standard deviation was found 4.33.

35

Weekend
30
Weekday
Person/1000 ft2/hr

25

20

15

10
Plaza A.R Mascot Pink city Rajlaxmi Rapa Plaza Metro
Plaza complex shopping
Mall

Figure 2: Trip attraction rate (person trips/1000 ft2/hour) for different shopping centers.

Plaza A.R obtained with highest peak
hour person/shop/hour on both the days with a
value of 4.9 on weekend and 3.6 on weekdays,
whereas Rajlaxmi complex obtained the lowest
trip attraction rate with a value of 1.6 and 1.1
respectively. Fig. 3 represents the variation in
peak hour Trip Attraction Rate (Person
trips/shop/hour) of six shopping centers. Plaza
A.R had the lowest number of shops but most
of them were well renowned and branded shops
which attracted the people most. Grand average
of peak hour person trip attraction rate was 2.34
person trips/shop/hour and Standard deviation
was found 1.04.

5 Weekend
Weekday
Person/shop/hr

0
Plaza A.R Mascot Plaza Pink city Rajlaxmi Rapa Plaza Metro
complex shopping
Mall
Figure 3: Trip attraction rate (person trips/shop/hour) for different shopping centers.

The variation in peak hours trip attraction A.R. center had the highest trip attraction rate of
rate (person trips/100 employees/hour) of six 163.9 trips/100 employees/hour on weekend and
shopping centers is shown in Fig. 4. Again Plaza 118.5 trips/100 employees/hour on weekday. On

31 Page 28-34 © MAT Journals 2020. All Rights Reserved

 Journal of Volume-5, Issue-1 (January-April, 2020)
Transportation Systems

www.matjournals.com http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3733088

the contrary, Rajlaxmi complex made the lowest and lowest as it was for the trip attraction rate
trip attraction rate 40.2 trips/100 employees/hour (Person trips/shop/hour). Grand average of peak
on weekend and 28.3 trips/100 employees/hour on hour person trip attraction rate was 67.53 person
weekday. There may be the same reasons to find trips/100 employees/hour and Standard deviation
the same shopping centers to become the highest was found 39.34.

180
160
Weekend
Person/100 employees/hr

140
Weekday
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Plaza A.R Mascot Plaza Pink city Rajlaxmi Rapa Plaza Metro
complex shopping
Mall
Figure 4: Trip attraction rate (person trips/100 employees /hour) for different shopping centers.

Fig. 5 illustrates the variation in peak hour respectively. All the shopping centers got two
trip attraction rate (Person trips/entry/hour) of six openings except Rajlaxmi complex which got three
shopping centers. Rapa plaza had the highest trip openings. Rajlaxmi complex did not attract many
attraction rate (Person trips/entry/hour) with a people compared to their gate opening. Grand
value of 264 on weekend and 189 on weekdays, average of peak hour person trip attraction rate was
whereas Rajlaxmi complex got the lowest trip 173.06 person trips/entry/hour and Standard
attraction rate with a value of 144.7 and 102 deviation was found 43.16.

300
Weekend
Weekday
250
Person/entry/hr

200

150

100

50
Plaza A.R Mascot Plaza Pink city Rajlaxmi Rapa Plaza Metro
complex shopping
Mall
Figure 5: Trip attraction rate (person trips/entry/hour) for different shopping centers.

A vice versa relationship had found spaces/hour. This time Rajlaxmi complex got the
between the trip attraction rate for Person largest trip attraction rate (Person trips/10 parking
trips/entry/hour and the Person trips/10 parking spaces/hour) of 144.7 on weekend and 102 on

32 Page 28-34 © MAT Journals 2020. All Rights Reserved

 Journal of
Transportation Systems
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weekday, whereas Rapa plaza got the least trip
attraction rate (Person trips/10 parking spaces/hour)
of 44 on weekend 31.5 on weekday. Rapa plaza did
not attract many people compared to their number
of parking. Fig. 6 depicts the variation in peak hour
160
140
Person/10 parking spaces/hr
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Plaza A.R Mascot Plaza
Figure 6: Trip attraction rate (person trips/10 parking spaces/hour) for different shopping centers.
MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION
The data set was categorized into two
parts; dependent variables (present number of
trips) and independent variables (Floor area,
Parking space, Number of shops, Number of
entry and Number of employees) in order to
Day
Weekend (Friday)
Weekday (Monday)
Notes: Y = Number of trip attraction, X1 = Floor area, X2 = Parking space, X3 = Number of shops, X4 = Number
of employees.
CONCLUSION
This study is conducted to estimate the
trip attraction rates at Uttara, Gulshan and
Dhanmondi in Dhaka city. From the result, it is
clearly shown that all the shopping centers are
attracting more number of trips on weekend than
weekday. The trip attraction rate estimated in this
study would be useful in determining the traffic
volume in and around the shopping centers. The
trip attraction rates that are estimated in this study
would also be useful in the regional transportation
network and evaluating the traffic impacts
surrounding a new shopping center. Two regression
models were also developed with respect to
different physical features to estimate the trip
attractions of the shopping centers. One is for
33
Volume-5, Issue-1 (January-April, 2020)
http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3733088
trip attraction rate (Person trips/10 parking
spaces/hour) of six shopping centers. Grand
average of peak hour person trip attraction rate was
72.99 person trips/10 parking spaces/hour and
Standard deviation was found 35.62.
Weekend
Weekday
Pink city Rajlaxmi Rapa Plaza Metro
complex shopping
Mall
develop trip generation model. Two separate
model was developed by using the SPSS
software for weekend and weekday to estimate
the trip attraction rate. It is seen that all the
independent variables have a strong correlation
except Number of entry. The estimated model
for shopping centers are provided in Table 3.
Table 3: Estimated model for shopping centers
Model R2 Adjusted R2
Y = 628.17 – 0.026 X1 + 2.57 X2 + 1.48 X3 – 52.63 X4 0.91 0.152
Y = 669.61 – 0.038 X1 + 2.94 X2 + 1.74 X3 – 63.58 X4 0.96 0.783
weekend and another is for weekdays. These
models will be helpful in determining the trip
attraction rate for future shopping centers.
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Cite as:
Syed Aaqib Javed, Mithun Debnath, Md.
Hossain Nadim, Md. Ajwad Anwar, & Sabuj
Chowdhury. (2020). Estimation of Trip
Attraction Rates and Models for Shopping
Centers in Dhaka City. Journal of
Transportation Systems, 5(1), 28–34.
http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3733088