ECO 6201E

BUSINESS ECONOMICS

INDIVIDUAL PROJECT

LIM YI SERN
(i23025781)

OCTOBER 2023 SESSION

 ECO 6201E – BUSINESS ECONOMICS INDIVIDUAL LIM YI SERN
MBALS – OCT 2023 SESSION PROJECT i23025781

Chosen Country : Malaysia Period of Analysis : Year 2003 – Year 2022

Expansion Recession Expansion Recession Expansion

2020 – COVID-19 Pandemic

2008 – Global Financial Crisis
Peak
Peak

/ Sheraton Move
2000 – Dotcom Bubble

2014 to 2016 – Oil Price Plunge

2005 – High Global Oil Prices

2016 – US Presidential Election

2011 – European Debt Crisis

2013 – General Election

2018 – General Election

2022 – Endemic Phase (Covid-19)

2008 – General Election

Trough

Trough

Data Source: Worldometers.info [Accessed on: 18 November, 2023] Place of publication: Dover, Delaware, U.S.A. and World Bank national accounts data, and OECD
National Accounts data.

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Question 1:

Analyze and explain the shape of the business cycle of your chosen country. At each inflection
point, explain the factors that contribute to changes in the economic landscape.

Answer to Question 1:

The economic trajectory of Malaysia serves as a testament to the intricate dance between
various economic forces, illustrating the dynamic business cycles it has traversed over the past
two decades. In the early 2000s, following the recovery from the Asian Financial Crisis,
Malaysia embarked on a transformative era fueled by a technological boom. The Dot-com
Bubble of the late 1990s facilitated increased investment in the burgeoning tech sector,
ushering in a period of unprecedented growth and innovation. This expansion phase, spanning
from 2000 to 2008, witnessed Malaysia's increasing integration into the global economy,
fostering greater financial connectivity and heightened international trade (National Economic
Advisory Model, 2009).

However, the zenith of this economic optimism in 2008 was met with a stark reality—the burst
of the housing bubble triggering the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Banks and financial
institutions in the United States and the West redirected their focus to home markets, resulting
in a significant drop in funds flowing into Malaysia (Goh and Lim, 2010). This led to the
crumbling of financial institutions, frozen credit markets, and a global recession. The
subsequent contraction phase in 2009 witnessed a negative GDP growth rate and a sharp spike
in unemployment. Governments responded with unprecedented interventions, including
massive stimulus packages and bank bailouts, aiming to stabilize the teetering economic
landscape.

The years 2009-2010 marked a crucial juncture for Malaysia's recovery. Central banks
implemented unconventional monetary policies, such as low-interest rates and quantitative
easing, to spur economic activity. Simultaneously, the Malaysian government and the Bank
Negara Malaysia (BNM) enacted fiscal measures, injecting liquidity and confidence into
markets (Harun, 2012). The financial sector, at the epicenter of the crisis, underwent
restructuring and reform to prevent future systemic failures. Monetary policy supported
domestic demand for economic recovery, and fiscal measures provided countercyclical support
for growth and incentives to stimulate private sector consumption and investment (Muhammad,
2010).

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Answer to Question 1: … cont’d

The post-recession expansion from 2010 to 2019 was characterized by resilience and
adaptation in Malaysia. In response to the economic threat, the Malaysian government
implemented a RM7 billion stimulus package in November 2008, a second RM60 billion
package in March 2009, and interest rate cuts by the central bank (Shankaran, 2009). Economic
reforms included stricter regulations on financial institutions to mitigate risks, while
technology and innovation emerged as key drivers of growth. However, challenges persisted
as the global economy grappled with geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and shifting
dynamics. Notable incidents throughout the decade, such as the European debt crisis in 2011
and the Malaysian general elections in 2013 and 2018, marked periods of ups and downs. The
change of government and political instability in 2018 introduced uncertainties, and the year
2016 recorded the lowest world GDP growth since the Global Financial Crisis (Bank Negara
Malaysia, 2016).

The year 2020 brought an unexpected disruptor to Malaysia and global—the COVID-19
pandemic. Economists predicted it would cause the worst global economic recession, with
Malaysia's GDP drastically falling due to the indirect impacts of the pandemic, including the
Movement Control Order (MCO) or lockdown. The resulting global economic standstill
presented an unparalleled challenge, causing mass unemployment in sectors like travel and
hospitality. Governments worldwide responded with unprecedented fiscal stimulus measures
to mitigate the economic fallout.

The post-pandemic recovery from 2021 to 2022 showcased Malaysia's resilience and
adaptability. Successful vaccination campaigns contributed to a gradual reopening of
economies, with fiscal stimulus playing a pivotal role in supporting affected businesses and
individuals. The economic landscape entered a phase of transition as industries adapted to new
norms, and the Malaysian government recalibrated policies to foster sustained growth.
Meanwhile, a World Bank senior economist noted that Malaysia's economy demonstrated
stability and consistent growth, boasting a 5% annual growth rate and ranking as the wealthiest
among six countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Mongolia, Vietnam, and the Philippines) before
the pandemic (FMT News, 2023).

(632 words)

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Question 2:

An economic cycle is something that is unavoidable by any country by any means. Explain the
importance of knowing the economic cycle and the related impact. Also explain measures that
are generally employed to overcome unintentional expansion or recession phase of economic
cycle.

Answer to Question 2:

Economic cycles, the inevitable rise and fall of economic activity, play a pivotal role in shaping
a nation's economic trajectory. The period from 2003 to 2022 in Malaysia offers a
comprehensive backdrop to explore the significance of understanding economic cycles and the
nuanced measures employed to navigate through phases of expansion and recession, including
the unprecedented challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Importance of Knowing Economic Cycles:

A profound understanding of economic cycles is important for an effective policy responses.

In Malaysia, the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis serves as a compelling example.
Faced with the ripple effects of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, Malaysia swiftly
implemented expansionary fiscal policies, emphasizing infrastructure development and
monetary stimulus (Ariff & Abubakar, 2009). This tailored response not only shielded
Malaysia from the worst of the global downturn but also set the stage for a robust recovery.
Knowledge of economic cycles allows policymakers to calibrate responses, ensuring that
interventions align with the specific challenges posed by each phase.

Moreover, understanding economic cycles equips a nation to fortify its economic stability
against global shocks. Malaysia, being part of the interconnected global economy, had to
navigate external challenges such as the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. Proactive measures,
including fortifying the financial sector, were employed to ensure stability in the face of these
shocks (Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, 2010). The ability to foresee and prepare
for such external shocks is a testament to the importance of comprehending economic cycles.

The most recent and unparalleled challenge, the COVID-19 pandemic, further underscores the
significance of understanding economic cycles. The pandemic disrupted global supply chains,
dampened consumer demand, and posed severe health and economic threats. In response,
Malaysia implemented a range of measures, including fiscal stimulus packages, to mitigate the

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Answer to Question 2: … cont’d

impact on businesses and households (Bank Negara Malaysia, 2020). The agility in adapting
strategies to the unique challenges posed by the pandemic demonstrates the ongoing
importance of understanding economic cycles.

Measures to Overcome Economic Expansion (2003 - 2007):

During phases of economic expansion from 2003 to 2007, Malaysia strategically employed
measures to leverage the growth momentum. Infrastructure-led growth emerged as a
cornerstone, with projects like Iskandar Malaysia aiming to stimulate investment and job
creation (Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, 2006). By prioritizing such projects,
Malaysia sought to create an environment conducive to increased economic activities.

Furthermore, diversification efforts played a crucial role in mitigating the risks associated with
over-reliance on traditional sectors. Malaysia actively diversified into high-value industries
such as technology and services, aiming to reduce vulnerability to sector-specific downturns
(Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, 2006). This strategic approach contributed to
sustained economic expansion and showcased the adaptability of Malaysia's economic policies.

Measures to Overcome Economic Recession (2008 - 2009):

The global financial crisis of 2008 necessitated a shift in policy measures to counter the
economic downturn. Malaysia, recognizing the severity of the crisis, implemented counter-
cyclical fiscal policies to stimulate demand and cushion the impact of the recession (Ariff &
Abubakar, 2009). This included a substantial increase in public spending, demonstrating a
commitment to using fiscal tools as a buffer during recessionary phases.

Simultaneously, monetary easing measures and support to the financial sector were pivotal in
maintaining confidence and stability. Bank Negara Malaysia, the central bank, played a crucial
role in introducing measures to ensure liquidity and stabilize the financial system (Ariff &
Abubakar, 2009). These measures not only prevented a more severe economic contraction but
also laid the foundation for a swifter recovery.

Measures During the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020 - 2022):

The COVID-19 pandemic presented unprecedented challenges, requiring a new set of measures
to safeguard both public health and the economy. Malaysia swiftly implemented movement

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Answer to Question 2: … cont’d

restrictions, providing financial aid to affected individuals and businesses (Bank Negara
Malaysia, 2020). Additionally, fiscal stimulus packages were introduced to bolster economic
resilience and ensure a robust recovery once the pandemic was under control.

In conclusion, the Malaysian experience from 2003 to 2022 underscores the intricate dance
with economic cycles. Knowledge of economic cycles facilitated informed policy responses,
enabling Malaysia to weather global storms and emerge stronger. The strategic focus on
infrastructure-led growth, economic diversification, and counter-cyclical policies exemplifies
Malaysia's resilience in navigating through the complexities of economic cycles. As Malaysia
looks towards the future, the lessons learned from this period, including the adaptive measures
during the COVID-19 pandemic, will undoubtedly shape its approach to the next inevitable
phase of economic evolution.

(731 words)

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Question 3:

While GDP is a widely used indicator for measuring the overall economic activity of a nation,
it is not a perfect measure for economic well-being. Using illustrations and samples, explain
why GDP is not the perfect measure for economic well-being.

Answer to Question 3:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has long been considered a key indicator of a nation's economic
health, measuring both the total income and expenditure on goods and services (Mankiw, 2014).
However, despite its widespread use, GDP falls short as the perfect measure for economic well-
being. This imperfection becomes apparent when examining specific aspects that GDP fails to
encapsulate, ranging from the value of leisure to the impact on the environment and the
overlooking of non-market activities.

One notable limitation of GDP is its exclusion of leisure, a crucial component of a well-rounded
and fulfilling life. Suppose a nation witnesses a sudden surge in productivity, with citizens
working every day of the week. This increased labor would contribute to a rise in GDP as more
goods and services are produced and consumed. However, such a scenario doesn't necessarily
translate into an improvement in overall well-being. The loss of leisure time, vital for relaxation
and personal satisfaction, would offset the gains reflected in the increased GDP (Stiglitz, Sen,
& Fitoussi, 2010).

GDP's focus on market transactions also results in the exclusion of the value of goods and
services produced within households, diminishing its accuracy as a comprehensive measure of
well-being. For instance, when a chef sells a meal at a restaurant, its value is included in GDP.
However, if the same chef prepares an equally delicious meal for her family, the value created
is not considered. Similarly, volunteer work, a significant contributor to societal well-being,
goes unnoticed in GDP calculations. This exclusion overlooks the substantial non-market
contributions individuals make to their communities, providing an incomplete picture of
economic well-being (Fisher, 1897).

Furthermore, GDP fails to account for the environmental consequences of economic activities.
Imagine a scenario where environmental regulations are lifted to boost production,
subsequently leading to a surge in GDP. While this might seem positive from an economic
standpoint, the deteriorating quality of air and water would likely offset any gains (Costanza et

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Answer to Question 3: … cont’d

al., 2009). By not factoring in environmental sustainability, GDP falls short in reflecting the
holistic well-being of a society.

Income distribution is another critical aspect neglected by GDP. It merely provides an average
measure of income per person, disregarding the significant disparities that may exist within a
society. For instance, two societies with the same GDP per person may have vastly different
distributions of wealth. One society could have a balanced income distribution, ensuring a
decent quality of life for all, while the other might exhibit extreme inequality, with a few
individuals enjoying immense wealth while others struggle in poverty. GDP fails to capture
these disparities, blurring the true economic well-being experienced by individuals (Milanovic,
2016).

Additionally, GDP does not consider the quality of healthcare and education, two fundamental
components of societal well-being. A nation may boast a high GDP, but if its healthcare system
is inefficient or education is subpar, the overall well-being of its citizens is compromised. This
oversight highlights the narrow focus of GDP on economic output without addressing the
crucial social factors that contribute to a nation's prosperity.

Senator Robert Kennedy aptly criticized GDP in 1968, stating that "It [Gross Domestic Product]
measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our
compassion nor our devotion to our country. It measures everything, in short, except that which
makes life worthwhile" (Kennedy, 1968). While GDP is instrumental in gauging a nation's
economic capacity to provide material necessities, it neglects the intangible factors that
contribute to a truly meaningful life.

In conclusion, GDP, despite its widespread use, is far from the perfect measure for economic
well-being. Its exclusion of leisure, non-market activities, environmental considerations,
income distribution nuances, and neglect of healthcare and education make it an incomplete
metric.

(616 words)

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Question 4:

If the GDP isn’t the perfect measure, suggest one indicator or index in your view that can
measure economic well-being. Do explain the rational of you choosing the said indicator to
replace GDP as a measure of economic well-being.

Answer to Question 4:

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while widely used as a measure of economic well-being,
has faced substantial criticism for its limitations. As a response to these critiques, the Genuine
Progress Indicator (GPI) emerges as a compelling alternative that provides a more holistic and
nuanced assessment of a nation's welfare (Lawn, 2013; Pillarisetti and van den Bergh, 2013;
Beça and Santos, 2010). The GPI addresses key issues inherent in GDP calculations, offering
a more accurate reflection of economic well-being.

Rationale for Choosing GPI:

Comprehensive Assessment:

The GPI goes beyond the monetary transactions considered in GDP and incorporates
environmental and social factors, providing a more comprehensive evaluation of a nation's
progress (Lawn, 2013). This approach considers income distribution, household and volunteer
work, and environmental factors, offering a broader picture of well-being.

Environmental Sustainability:

GPI accounts for the costs associated with pollution and depletion of natural resources,
addressing the oversight in GDP calculations (Pillarisetti and van den Bergh, 2013). This
emphasis on sustainability aligns with contemporary concerns about the environmental impact
of economic activities.

Social Indicators:

GPI includes factors such as income distribution and the value of unpaid work, recognizing
their impact on social well-being (Lawn, 2013). This addresses a significant limitation of GDP,
which fails to account for inequalities and non-market activities.

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Answer to Question 4: … cont’d

Health and Well-being:

GPI incorporates factors related to health and well-being, offering a more direct link to the
actual quality of life experienced by citizens (Lawn, 2013). This is a crucial departure from
GDP, which primarily focuses on economic output without considering its distribution or the
overall impact on individuals' lives.

Formula for GPI:

While the exact formula may vary, a general representation of GPI includes positive
contributions such as personal consumption, investments in human capital, and volunteer work,
while deducting negative elements like income inequality, environmental degradation, and the
depletion of non-renewable resources (Pillarisetti and van den Bergh, 2013).

𝐺𝑃𝐼 = 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 + 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 + 𝑃𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

+ 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 − 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝐸𝑛𝑣𝑖𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐷𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
− 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝐼𝑛𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦

Supporting Points:

Sustainability Focus:

GPI's emphasis on genuine progress aligns with the global shift toward sustainability goals
(Pillarisetti and van den Bergh, 2013). This focus positions GPI as a forward-looking indicator
that accounts for the consequences of present actions on future well-being.

Reflecting True Welfare:

By incorporating social and environmental factors, GPI moves beyond the narrow economic
lens of GDP to offer a more accurate representation of a nation's welfare (Lawn, 2013). It
addresses the fundamental issue of whether economic growth genuinely contributes to the well-
being of a society.

Community and Volunteer Work:

Acknowledging the value of unpaid work and community contributions, GPI recognizes the
importance of activities that contribute to societal well-being but are often overlooked by GDP
(Lawn, 2013). This inclusion reflects a more people-centric approach to economic assessment.

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Answer to Question 4: … cont’d

Adjustments for Depletion:

GPI accounts for the depletion of natural resources and the costs associated with environmental
damage (Beça and Santos, 2010). This adjustment ensures that economic activities do not come
at the expense of long-term ecological sustainability.

In conclusion, the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) emerges as a robust alternative to GDP,
addressing its limitations by providing a more inclusive and sustainable measure of economic
well-being. Grounded in comprehensive factors such as environmental sustainability, social
indicators, and adjustments for depletion, the GPI offers a nuanced perspective aligning with
contemporary values (Lawn, 2013; Pillarisetti and van den Bergh, 2013; Beça and Santos,
2010). However, the adoption of the GPI is not without challenges. From an economic
standpoint, transitioning from GDP to the GPI entails overcoming entrenched practices and
potential resistance from those accustomed to traditional metrics (Stiglitz, Fitoussi, & Durand,
2018). Moreover, refining the GPI's formula and achieving consensus on variable weights pose
methodological hurdles (Kubiszewski et al., 2013). Despite these challenges, the GPI's
emphasis on genuine progress positions it as a forward-looking indicator, contributing to a
more accurate representation of a nation's welfare, reflecting the ever-evolving landscape of
economic thought (Daly & Cobb, 1989; Lawn, 2003). As nations grapple with the imperative
of sustainable development, the GPI stands as a promising tool, urging a shift toward holistic
and meaningful assessments of progress.

(673 words)

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References:

National Economic Advisory Model. (2009). Economic Outlook: Malaysia. [Online]

Available at: https://www.pmo.gov.my/dokumenattached/NEM_Report_I.pdf (Accessed:
18-Nov-2023)

Goh, S. K., & Lim, K. P. (2010). The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Malaysia. In
The Global Financial Crisis: Impact on Asia and Policy Challenges Ahead (pp. 159-180).
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Harun, M. H. M. (2012). Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability in Malaysia: A

Structural Vector Error Correction Model Analysis. Procedia - Social and Behavioral
Sciences, 65, 956-963.

Muhammad, M. J. (2010). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Malaysia: The Problem of
Implementability. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 31(2), 27-58.

Shankaran, K. (2009). Malaysia's Response to the Global Economic Crisis. In Responding to

the Global Economic Crisis: Challenges for Sustainable Development (pp. 245-260).
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Bank Negara Malaysia. (2016). Annual Report 2016. Kuala Lumpur: Bank Negara Malaysia.

FMT News. (2023). Malaysia Ranks as the Wealthiest Among Six Nations. [Online] Available
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Ariff, M., & Abubakar, S. Y. (2009). "Post-crisis Reforms and International Cooperation:
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Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER). (2006). Malaysian Economic Outlook

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Mankiw, N. G. (2014). Principles of Economics. Cengage Learning.

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References: … cont’d

Stiglitz, J. E., Sen, A., & Fitoussi, J. P. (2010). Mismeasuring Our Lives: Why GDP Doesn't
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Milanovic, B. (2016). Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization.
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Kennedy, R. F. (1968). Remarks at the University of Kansas, March 18, 1968. Available at:
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Lawn, P. A. (2013). "A theoretical foundation to support the Index of Sustainable Economic
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Daly, H., & Cobb, J. B., Jr. (1990). For the Common Good: Redirecting the Economy toward
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References: … cont’d

Kubiszewski, I., Costanza, R., Franco, C., Lawn, P., Talberth, J., Jackson, T., & Aymler,
C. (2013). "Beyond GDP: Measuring and achieving global genuine progress." Ecological
Economics, 93, 57–68. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.04.019]

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