Weather Data Time Series Modelling Delhi-Kaggle Notebook - by Merve Gamze C. - Medium

11/12/23, 11:03 PM Weather Data Time Series Modelling Delhi-Kaggle Notebook | by Merve Gamze C.
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Weather Data Time Series Modelling Delhi-

Kaggle Notebook
Merve Gamze C. · Follow
5 min read · Sep 3
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Weather Forecasting
Explore and run machine learning code with Kaggle Notebooks | Using
data from Daily Climate time series data
www.kaggle.com
This dataset provides data from 1st January 2013 to 24th April 2017 in the city of Delhi,
India. The 4 parameters here are meantemp, humidity, wind_speed, meanpressure.
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
import plotly.express as px
data = pd.read_csv("/kaggle/input/daily-climate-time-series-data/DailyDelhiClimate
print(data.head())
date meantemp humidity wind_speed meanpressure

0 2013-01-01 10.000000 84.500000 0.000000 1015.666667
1 2013-01-02 7.400000 92.000000 2.980000 1017.800000
2 2013-01-03 7.166667 87.000000 4.633333 1018.666667
https://medium.com/@mervegamzenar/weather-forecasting-delhi-kaggle-notebook-2240f49988ef 1/18
11/12/23, 11:03 PM Weather Data Time Series Modelling Delhi-Kaggle Notebook | by Merve Gamze C. | Medium
3 2013-01-04 8.666667 71.333333 1.233333 1017.166667

4 2013-01-05 6.000000 86.833333 3.700000 1016.500000
print(data.describe())
meantemp humidity wind_speed meanpressure

count 1462.000000 1462.000000 1462.000000 1462.000000
mean 25.495521 60.771702 6.802209 1011.104548
std 7.348103 16.769652 4.561602 180.231668
min 6.000000 13.428571 0.000000 -3.041667
25% 18.857143 50.375000 3.475000 1001.580357
50% 27.714286 62.625000 6.221667 1008.563492
75% 31.305804 72.218750 9.238235 1014.944901
max 38.714286 100.000000 42.220000 7679.333333
print(data.info())
<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
RangeIndex: 1462 entries, 0 to 1461
Data columns (total 5 columns):
# Column Non-Null Count Dtype
--- ------ -------------- -----
0 date 1462 non-null object
1 meantemp 1462 non-null float64
2 humidity 1462 non-null float64
3 wind_speed 1462 non-null float64
4 meanpressure 1462 non-null float64
dtypes: float64(4), object(1)
memory usage: 57.2+ KB
None
The date column in this dataset is not having a datetime data type. We will change it
when required. Let’s have a look at the mean temperature in Delhi over the years:
figure = px.line(data, x="date",

y="meantemp",
title='Mean Temperature in Delhi Over the Years')

figure.show()
Now let’s have a look at the humidity in Delhi over the years:

y="humidity",
title='Humidity in Delhi Over the Years')
figure.show()
Now let’s have a look at the wind speed in Delhi over the years:

y="wind_speed",
title='Wind Speed in Delhi Over the Years')
figure.show()
Till 2015, the wind speed was higher during monsoons (August & September) and
retreating monsoons (December & January). After 2015, there were no anomalies in
wind speed during monsoons. Now let’s have a look at the relationship between
temperature and humidity:
figure = px.scatter(data_frame = data, x="humidity",

y="meantemp", size="meantemp",
trendline="ols",
title = "Relationship Between Temperature and Humidity")
figure.show()
There’s a negative correlation between temperature and humidity in Delhi. It means

higher temperature results in low humidity and lower temperature results in high
humidity.
Analyzing Temperature Change

Now let’s analyze the temperature change in Delhi over the years. For this task, I will
first convert the data type of the date column into datetime. Then I will add two new
columns in the dataset for year and month values.
Here’s how we can change the data type and extract year and month data from the date
column:
data["date"] = pd.to_datetime(data["date"], format = '%Y-%m-%d')

data['year'] = data['date'].dt.year
data["month"] = data["date"].dt.month
print(data.head())
date meantemp humidity wind_speed meanpressure year month
0 2013-01-01 10.000000 84.500000 0.000000 1015.666667 2013 1
1 2013-01-02 7.400000 92.000000 2.980000 1017.800000 2013 1

2 2013-01-03 7.166667 87.000000 4.633333 1018.666667 2013 1
3 2013-01-04 8.666667 71.333333 1.233333 1017.166667 2013 1
4 2013-01-05 6.000000 86.833333 3.700000 1016.500000 2013 1
Now let’s have a look at the temperature change in Delhi over the years:
plt.style.use('fivethirtyeight')
plt.figure(figsize=(15, 10))
plt.title("Temperature Change in Delhi Over the Years")
sns.lineplot(data = data, x='month', y='meantemp', hue='year')
plt.show()
Although 2017 was not the hottest year in the summer, we can see a rise in the average
temperature of Delhi every year.
Forecasting Weather using Python

Now let’s move to the task of weather you can install it on your system by using the
command mentioned below in your command prompt or terminal:
pip install prophet
The prophet model accepts time data named as “ds”, and labels as “y”. So let’s convert
the data into this format:
forecast_data = data.rename(columns = {"date": "ds",

"meantemp": "y"})
print(forecast_data)
ds y humidity wind_speed meanpressure year month

0 2013-01-01 10.000000 84.500000 0.000000 1015.666667 2013 1
1 2013-01-02 7.400000 92.000000 2.980000 1017.800000 2013 1
2 2013-01-03 7.166667 87.000000 4.633333 1018.666667 2013 1
3 2013-01-04 8.666667 71.333333 1.233333 1017.166667 2013 1
4 2013-01-05 6.000000 86.833333 3.700000 1016.500000 2013 1
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
1457 2016-12-28 17.217391 68.043478 3.547826 1015.565217 2016 12
1458 2016-12-29 15.238095 87.857143 6.000000 1016.904762 2016 12
1459 2016-12-30 14.095238 89.666667 6.266667 1017.904762 2016 12
1460 2016-12-31 15.052632 87.000000 7.325000 1016.100000 2016 12
1461 2017-01-01 10.000000 100.000000 0.000000 1016.000000 2017 1
[1462 rows x 7 columns]
Now below is how we can use the Facebook prophet model for weather forecasting
using Python:
from prophet import Prophet

from prophet.plot import plot_plotly, plot_components_plotly
model = Prophet()
model.fit(forecast_data)
forecasts = model.make_future_dataframe(periods=365)
predictions = model.predict(forecasts)
plot_plotly(model, predictions)
10:50:57 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain [1] start processing

10:50:58 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain [1] done processing
Weather Forecasts Kaggle Dataset Time Series Analysis
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Written by Merve Gamze C.

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11/12/23, 11:03 PM Weather Data Time Series Modelling Delhi-Kaggle Notebook | by Merve Gamze C.

Open in app Sign up Sign In

Weather Data Time Series Modelling Delhi-

date meantemp humidity wind_speed meanpressure

3 2013-01-04 8.666667 71.333333 1.233333 1017.166667

meantemp humidity wind_speed meanpressure

figure = px.line(data, x="date",

title='Mean Temperature in Delhi Over the Years')

figure = px.line(data, x="date",

figure = px.line(data, x="date",

figure = px.scatter(data_frame = data, x="humidity",

There’s a negative correlation between temperature and humidity in Delhi. It means

Analyzing Temperature Change

data["date"] = pd.to_datetime(data["date"], format = '%Y-%m-%d')

1 2013-01-02 7.400000 92.000000 2.980000 1017.800000 2013 1

Forecasting Weather using Python

pip install prophet

forecast_data = data.rename(columns = {"date": "ds",

ds y humidity wind_speed meanpressure year month

[1462 rows x 7 columns]

from prophet import Prophet

10:50:57 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain [1] start processing

Weather Forecasts Kaggle Dataset Time Series Analysis

Written by Merve Gamze C.

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