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Introduction
Human behavior is part of one’s personality and very difficult to change. As an investor, one may
even realize that one’s behavior is affecting returns, but it can be hard to appreciate just how much of
an impact behavioral characteristics can have on whether one’s financial goals are reached.
At its core, behavioral finance attempts to understand and explain actual investor and market
behaviors versus theories of investor behavior. This idea differs from traditional (or standard) finance,
which is based on assumptions of how investors and markets should behave.
As Meir Statman's quote puts it, standard finance people are modeled as “rational,” whereas
behavioral finance people are modeled as “normal.” This can be interpreted to mean that “normal”
people may behave irrationally—but the reality is that almost no one behaves perfectly rationally. We
will delve into the topic of the irrational behaviors of markets at times; however, the focus of the module
is on individual investor behavior. In this module, we define behavioral finance and break down its
components for better understanding.
At the end of this module, you can have a better understanding of the basics of as well as the
effects of behavioral biases on the investment process. By doing so, would-be investors and their
advisors may be able to improve economic outcomes and attain stated financial objectives.
Topic Outline
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Contents
Behaviour is all about emotions, personalities, psychology, and sociology. And finance is all
about money, investments, numbers, equations, statistics, and balance sheets.
The most common assumption of standard finance is that human beings are "rational."
This means that humans analyze the pros and cons of any situation and then choose the
one which is best for them.
But the critical question is, are we rational? And if we are rational, then why do we throw lavish
birthday parties or luxury wedding receptions because these decisions are certainly not rational.
In reality however, according to Ahiller (199), investors do not think and behave rationally. In
the contrary, investors are driven by greed and fear under uncertainty.
In other wirds, investors are misinformed by extremes of emotion, subjective thinking, and the
whims of the crowd.
• Cognitive psychology refers to how people think. People make systematic errors in the
way that they think. They seem to be overconfident and basically put too much weight
on recent experience.
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➢ The study of behavioral finance examines the “less than rational” side of investor
behavior. Bluntly put, behavioral finance seeks to explain people’s behaviors when
it comes to financial decision-making.
➢ As much as everyone seeks to be rational and disciplined, human psychology can make this a
challenge. Investors are not always rational, have limits to their self-control, are
influenced by their own biases, and can make cognitive errors that can lead to
wrong decisions. In other words, investors are normal people.
➢ Fundamentally, behavioral finance is about understanding why and how people make
financial decisions, both individually and collectively. By understanding how investors
and markets behave, it may be possible to modify or adapt to these behaviors to improve
financial outcomes.
Much of behavioral finance research stems from the research in the area of cognitive
psychology.
➢ Cognitive psychology: the study of how people (including investors) think, reason,
and make decisions.
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The three major cognitive shortcuts that laid the groundwork of prospect theory are:
These heuristics influence our judgments, typically subconsciously, and can certainly bias
investment decisions.
NOTE:
These types of behaviors can interfere with, or confuse the best-laid long-term
investment plan. Awareness is the first step toward ensuring behavioral biases do not
compromise sound portfolio management.
In order to better understand behavioral finance, let’s first look at traditional financial theory.
Behavioral finance originated from the work of psychologists Daniel Kahneman and
Amos Tversky and economist Robert J. Shiller in the 1970s-1980s. They applied pervasive,
deep-seated, subconscious biases and heuristics to the way that people make financial
decisions.
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According to behavioral economist Herbert Simon, most people use heuristics when
confronted with a complex decision.
Heuristics are mental shortcuts we use to decide on something quickly or not at all.
Three academics, in particular, were leading this shift — Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky,
and Richard Thaler. Today, they are known as the “founding fathers of behavioral finance”.
Kahneman and Tversky, who weren’t economists, wrote three groundbreaking papers
from the mid-70s to the early 80s. They were Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
(1974), Prospect Theory: A Study of Decision Making Under Risk (1979), and The Framing
of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981). These laid the foundation for understanding
biases and their effects on decision-making.
Thaler, a more traditional finance academic, was working with Kahneman and Tversky in
the late 70s and took their ideas and applied them to a finance context. He wrote a paper titled
Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice (1980) that introduced the idea of mental
accounting.
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, psychologists whose research laid the groundwork
for behavioral economics, concluded after investigating decision-making in a variety of settings, that
many people use heuristics, or mental shortcuts, to arrive at intuitive conclusions based on limitated
and often unreliable information.
When these findings were published in 1973, they evoked outrage in some quarters—and
accusations that Tversky and Kahneman were arrogantly condemning people for not thinking straight.
But further study has confirmed not only the existence of mental shortcuts but also their impact on
decision making.
The origin of behavioral finance can be attributed to the publication of prospect theory in 1979—
the behavioral economist’s replacement for expected utility theory. Prospect theory built on several
previous articles that showcased cognitive shortcuts, also known as heuristics, and their substantial
impact on decision-making. The theory consists of four major components: reference points,
probability weighting, loss aversion, and diminishing sensitivity.
The most salient feature of prospect theory for investment professionals is loss aversion.
Prospect theory asserts that losses loom larger than gains.
Categories Of Errors
• Cognitive errors which cause a person’s decisions to deviate from rationality.
• Belief preservation errors refer to the tendency to cling to one’s initial belief even after
receiving new information that contradicts it.
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Key Concepts
Some key concepts form the basis for how behavioral finance analyzes investors’ behaviors.
An example is rapidly selling off position in a stock after a quick drop in stock price.
An example is buying the stock at $70 and knowing its all-time high was at $100 so the investor
waits until the stock reaches that price again to sell.
An example is when an investor thinks they are a genius when they get lucky on a 30% profit on
their stock pick.
Let’s explore some of the buckets or building blocks that make up behavioral finance.
Behavioral finance views investors as “normal” but being subject to decision-making biases and
errors. We can break down the decision-making biases and errors into at least four buckets.
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#1 Self-Deception
The concept of self-deception is a limit to the way we learn. When we mistakenly think we know
more than we actually do, we tend to miss information that we need to make an informed decision.
#2 Heuristic Simplification
We can also scope out a bucket that is often called heuristic simplification. Heuristic simplification
refers to information-processing errors.
#3 Emotion
Basically, emotion in behavioral finance refers to our making decisions based on our current
emotional state. Our current mood may take our decision-making off track from rational
thinking.
#4 Social Influence
What we mean by the social bucket is how our decision-making is influenced by others.
Awareness of Biases
The following are a few of the biases most common among investors. You may see a bit of yourself
in some of these. Which of these resonate with you?
It is where the investors’ memory of recent events makes them more likely to believe
the event would happen again in the future.
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For example, many investors exited the stock market after the 2008-2009 market collapse in
fear that another harrowing crisis would occur.
• Loss aversion bias, also known as Prospect Theory - states that people feel losses more
strongly than equivalent gains.
Loss aversion is a tendency in behavioral finance where investors are so fearful of losses
that they focus on trying to avoid a loss more so than on making gains. The more one
experiences losses, the more likely they are to become prone to loss aversion.
Research on loss aversion shows that investors feel the pain of a loss more than twice as
strongly as they feel the enjoyment of making a profit.
Loss aversion can result in avoiding risk to such a degree that it can lead to an overly
conservative portfolio that cannot meet its long-term financial goals. Loss aversion can
also lead to the decision to sell investments during market downturns simply to
avoid further downturns, which means they could miss out on subsequent gains.
Example: The pandemic sell-off in equity markets during March 2020 is a recent
example. Conversely, loss aversion can result in an investor continuing to hold onto an
investment with negative returns to avoid realizing a loss in their portfolio, even when selling is
the prudent decision.
For example, a loss of $100 hurts more than the delight of a gain of $100.
• Endowment Effect - occurs when an investor values their asset more when they own
it and acts differently depending on the origin of the assets. It refers to peoples’
tendency to ascribe more value to items they own simply because they own them.
These individuals often feel they have the ability to make superior decisions regarding
investments or the timing of investments.
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A classic example of overconfidence is the fact that the vast majority of people with
driver’s licenses feel they are above-average drivers.
NOTE:
The danger of an overconfidence bias is that it makes one prone to making mistakes in
investing. Overconfidence tends to make us less than appropriately cautious in our
investment decisions.
• Herd Mentality – the tendency to follow and copy what other investors are doing
(a.k.a. fear of missing out). Decisions are largely influenced by emotion and
perceived instinct, rather than by independent financial analysis.
Herd mentality bias refers to investors’ tendency to follow and copy what other
investors are doing. They are largely influenced by emotion and instinct, rather than
by their own independent analysis.
The dot com bubble and bitcoin are two examples. Meme stocks would also fall into this
category as these are stocks that experience an increase in volume due to hype on social media
as opposed to company performance. Gamestop is a notable example from earlier this year as
a group of investors drove its price up on social media, putting pressure on short sellers.
• Self serving bias is a tendency in behavioral finance to attribute good outcomes to our
skill and bad outcomes to sheer luck.
Certainly, most of us can think of things that we’ve done and determined that when everything
is going according to plan, it’s clearly due to our skill. Then, when things don’t go
according to plan, clearly we’ve just had bad luck.
One of the most effective ways is by actually recording and recognizing what actually
happened, documenting the reasoning behind your decisions and the outcomes that
followed.
Reviewing a well-kept trading journal can help you easily identify strengths and
weaknesses in your trading. It can also help you identify – and thereby be able to correct –
mistakes that you continually make.
• Confirmation Bias (Finding information that confirms our belief) – is the tendency
of people to pay close attention to information that confirms their belief and ignore
information that contradicts it. Put another way, people tend to cherry-pick
information that supports their existing beliefs.
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Another example is that people often seek out information that aligns with their political beliefs
while ignoring information that contradicts those beliefs.
• Hindsight bias is the misconception, after the fact, that one “always knew” that they were
right. Someone may also mistakenly assume that they possessed special insight or talent in
predicting an outcome.
We need to map the outcomes of our decisions and the reasons behind those
decisions to learn from both our wins and our losses. An investment diary also helps
mitigate against the bias of self-deception, which again limits our ability to learn.
One of the limits to our ability to evaluate information objectively is what’s called the narrative
fallacy. We love stories and we let our preference for a good story cloud the facts and our
ability to make rational decisions. This means that we may be drawn towards a less
desirable outcome simply because it has a better story.
Stockbrokers have taken advantage of the narrative fallacy for years, convincing clients to
invest in a stock by telling them a great story about the company.
• Framing Bias (How the way information is presented can influence decisions)
occurs when people make a decision based on the way the information is presented,
as opposed to just on the facts themselves. The same facts presented in two different ways
can lead to people making different judgments or decisions.
NOTE: The key thing is trying to kick in the logical, reflective approach to decision
making and avoid impulsive, reflexive decisions.
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• Anchoring bias occurs when people rely too much on pre-existing information or the
first information they find when making decisions.
The anchor – the first thing that you saw – unduly influenced your opinion.
• Regret Aversion occurs when people fear that their decision will turn out wrong in
hindsight and is associated with risk aversion. Regret is a negative emotion, and anticipating
it may affect behavior as people strive to eliminate or reduce this possibility.
• Status Quo Bias refers to the tendency to prefer that things to stay the same. In other
words, people prefer to keep things the way they are because “it’s always been this way.” In
investing, this can manifest in concentrated stock positions or the tendency to remain invested
in assets that may no longer be appropriate for their portfolio.
• Self-Control Bias When people fail to act in pursuit of their long-term goals because
of a lack of self-control, this is known as self-control bias. For instance, people may consume
more today at the expense of saving for tomorrow. Self-control bias can also be described as the
conflict between one’s long-term goals and one’s ability to pursue it due to a lack of discipline.
NOTE:
Biases such as loss aversion and overconfidence are driven by hard-wired emotions
while the other biases are cognitive and caused by the way people’s brains process
information.
Note: Both emotional and cognitive biases can impact, often negatively, the
achievement of long-term financial objectives.
There are ways to overcome negative behavioral tendencies in relation to investing. Here
are some strategies you can use to guard against biases.
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• Reflexive – Going with your gut, which is effortless, automatic and, in fact, is our default option.
• Reflective – Logical and methodical, but requires effort to engage in actively.
• Relying on reflexive decision-making makes us more prone to deceptive biases and emotional
and social influences.
Establishing logical decision-making processes can help protect you from such errors.
Get yourself focused on the process rather than the outcome. If you’re advising others, try to
encourage the people you’re advising to think about the process rather than just the possible
outcomes. Focusing on the process will lead to better decisions because the process helps
you engage in reflective decision-making.
Summary
Behavioral finance asserts that investors are human, just like the rest of us. They have emotions
and biases that cloud their rationality. In the world of finance, investors treat their money more
emotionally than rationally and get entangled in a complex web of bias and psychology.
Behavioral finance seeks to understand the psychological basis for people’s behaviors and apply
them to the sphere of money. Behavioral finance ultimately draws ideas from psychology and finance
to generate better insights into how investors can beat their biases and overcome emotions.
You might have heard a common phrase "Even smart people make Big Money mistakes." Well,
this is true Because IQ has nothing to do with money mistakes. It's the heart and emotions that are
essential, explained in different behavioral finance theories.
Behavioral finance suggests that the structure of information and characteristics of participants
of the market can play an essential role in the decision-making of the investor as well as the overall
outcome of the market.
Behavioural Finance is about making the right decisions that are free from any kind of biases
and errors. It helps in understanding investor behavior better and helps in improving the financial
capability of individuals.
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People can earn better returns if they know what the biases which are affecting their decision-
making are, and thus they can make better decisions.
References
Pompian, Michael M. (2012), Behavioral finance and investor types: managing behavior to make
better investment decisions, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
Pompian, Michael M. (2006), Behavioral finance and wealth management: building optimal
portfolios that account for investor biases, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
Ackert, Lucy F., and Deaves, Richard (2010), Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making,
and Markets, South-Western Cengage Learning, 5191 Natorp Boulevard Mason, OH 45040,
USA.
Burton, E. T., & Shah, S. N. (2013). Behavior finance: Understanding the social, cognitive, and
economic debates. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Kaur, Rashmeet (2020), What is Behavioral Finance and how does it affect your Financial
decisions? https://insider.finology.in/behavioral-finance/what-is-behavioral-finance
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/behavioral-
finance/
Adair, Michael O. (2018), Behavioral Finance: Understanding How Biases Impact Decisions.
https://www.cnr.com/insights/article/white-paper-behavioral-finance-2018.html
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The module is for the exclusive use of the University of La Salette, Inc. Any form of reproduction, distribution, uploading, or
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PBSBAFM006 – BEHAVIORAL FINANCE
The module is for the exclusive use of the University of La Salette, Inc. Any form of reproduction, distribution, uploading, or
posting online in any form or by any means without the written permission of the University is strictly prohibited. ii
PBSBAFM006 – BEHAVIORAL FINANCE
The module is for the exclusive use of the University of La Salette, Inc. Any form of reproduction, distribution, uploading, or
posting online in any form or by any means without the written permission of the University is strictly prohibited. iii
PBSBAFM006 – BEHAVIORAL FINANCE
The module is for the exclusive use of the University of La Salette, Inc. Any form of reproduction, distribution, uploading, or
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PBSBAFM006 – BEHAVIORAL FINANCE
The module is for the exclusive use of the University of La Salette, Inc. Any form of reproduction, distribution, uploading, or
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PBSBAFM006 – BEHAVIORAL FINANCE
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