Market Overview

Thursday 2 November, 2023

Issue #2023-56

Bitcoin Santa Claus Rally Coming: Is Our $45,000 Target Achievable?

Executive Summary
In October, Bitcoin surged by +28%, elevating its year-to-date growth by +108%, which
surprised market participants and commentators. However, it was no surprise to our
readers. On September 20, Matrixport Research published a report forecasting the
institutional support driving the Bitcoin price surge, harnessing our 90% probability
breakout signal. This signal indicated that Bitcoin was poised for a breakthrough after two
months of trading sideways.

Based on our historical analysis, the Bitcoin bull market is expected to continue. Bitcoin
tends to be a solid trending asset because high prices attract more traders to jump on the
price move. This, in turn, causes prices to rise even further. For example, when Bitcoin is
up by at least +50% by the end of October, there is, on average, a 78% chance that
Bitcoin will advance even more into year-end. Bitcoin rallied, on average, another +68%
until year-end on seven of nine previous occasions. This analysis is based on thirteen
years of Bitcoin history.

While by itself, selling $26,000-BTC put options would not yield any significant return, a
trader could buy half of the $45,000-BTC-strike call options with those premiums.
Interestingly, $45,000 was the price target based on the ‘Matrix on Target’ report from
February 3, 2023, titled ‘January Effect – Bitcoin to $45,000 by December’.

Exhibit 1: Average Bitcoin return during the last 9-10 years, prices tend to peak on December 18th

Source: Matrixport Technologies

CONTACT
Markus Thielen
Head of Research
markus.thielen@matrixport.com
1
 Market Overview
Thursday 2 November, 2023
Issue #2023-56

Bitcoin Santa Claus Rally Coming: Is Our $45,000 Target Achievable?

Please note that this is just an extract from the full report. To access the full
report and gain additional insights, please contact one of our helpful sales
representatives at https://www.matrixport.com/institutions/get-in-touch.

*all charts are provided by Matrixport Technologies based on various external data sources, which can include, Coingecko,
Investing, Coinalyze, Stelareum, Token Terminal, YahooFinance, amongst others.

Disclaimer: This publication is issued in BVI by Matrixport Technologies Ltd. (“Matrixport”). The information provided in the publications are
meant purely for informational purposes and should not be relied upon as financial advice. None of the information contained here constitutes
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investment, legal or tax advice or advice of any sort. Matrixport does not provide individually tailored investment advice. You are advised to
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CONTACT
Markus Thielen
Head of Research
markus.thielen@matrixport.com
2