1.

Introduction
Definition
Population forecasting refers to the process of predicting and
estimating the future size, composition, and distribution of a
population within a specific geographic area or region. It involves
analyzing historical population data, current demographic trends, and
various socio-economic factors to develop models and projections for
future population changes.
Population forecasting aims to provide insights into how the
population of a particular area is expected to change over time. It
helps governments, urban planners, policymakers, and other
stakeholders make informed decisions regarding infrastructure
development, resource allocation, social services, and policy
planning.
Population forecasting incorporates statistical and mathematical
techniques to generate plausible scenarios for future population
growth or decline. These techniques may include demographic
models, econometric models, and geospatial models. The forecasting
process typically involves analyzing birth rates, death rates, migration
patterns, fertility rates, age structure, and other relevant demographic
variables.
The accuracy of population forecasting depends on the quality of data
inputs, the appropriateness of the chosen forecasting model, and the
assumptions made during the forecasting process. While population
forecasts cannot predict exact future outcomes, they provide valuable
insights and guidance for long-term planning and policy formulation.

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 Objectives
The objectives of population forecasting are as follows:
1. Estimating Future population Size:
The primary objective of population forecasting is to estimate
the future size of a population within a specific geographic area
or region. This includes predicting the total population count
and understanding how it may change over time.
2. Analyzing population Composition:
Population forecasting also aims to analyze and predict changes
in population composition. This includes examining age
structure, gender distribution, ethnic or racial diversity, and
other relevant demographic characteristics.
3. Understanding population Dynamics:
Population forecasting seeks to understand the underlying
factors driving population change, such as birth rates, death
rates, fertility rates, migration patterns, and socioeconomic
indicators. By studying these dynamics, forecasters can identify
trends and patterns that influence future population growth or
decline.
4. Supporting Planning and Policy Decisions:
Another objective of population forecasting is to provide
valuable information for planning and policy decisions.
Forecasted population data helps governments, urban planners,
policymakers, and other stakeholders make informed choices
regarding infrastructure development, resource allocation, social
services, healthcare, education, and transportation systems.
5. Anticipating Demographic Challenges and Opportunities:
Population forecasting helps anticipate future demographic
challenges and opportunities. It allows policymakers to identify
potential issues such as aging populations, changes in workforce
composition, shifts in healthcare needs, or demands for specific

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 social services. By understanding these trends in advance,
strategies can be developed to address and capitalize on
emerging demographic changes.
6. Evaluating Policy Impact:
Population forecasting allows for the evaluation of the impact
of current policies or interventions on future population
dynamics. By simulating different scenarios and projecting their
effects on the population, policymakers can assess the potential
outcomes of different policy choices and make adjustments
accordingly
7. Informing Resource Allocation:
Population forecasting assists in efficient resource allocation by
providing insights into future population demands. For instance,
it helps determine the need for schools, hospitals, housing,
transportation infrastructure, and other essential services based
on projected population growth or decline.
8. Guiding Long-term Planning:
Population forecasts support long-term planning initiatives by
offering a projection of population trends over an extended
period. This information helps guide strategic decisions related
to urban development, land use, environmental sustainability,
and other aspects of long-range planning.
Overall, the objectives of population forecasting revolve around
understanding and anticipating future population dynamics, enabling
evidence-based decision-making, and facilitating sustainable
development and resource management.

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 Significance of the Study
The significance of a population forecasting study lies in its wide-
ranging implications and applications. The study's significance is
as follows:
1. Policy Planning and Development:
Population forecasting provides valuable insights for
policymakers and government authorities in planning for the
future. It helps in formulating policies related to urban
development, infrastructure, housing, healthcare, education,
transportation, and social services. By understanding the
anticipated population changes, policymakers can make
informed decisions and allocate resources effectively.
2. Resource Allocation and Management:
Population forecasting aids in efficient resource allocation and
management. It assists in determining the demand for resources
such as water, energy, food, and healthcare services based on
projected population growth or decline. This enables the
optimization of resource allocation to meet future needs and
avoid shortages or inefficiencies.
3. Urban and Regional Planning:
Population forecasting is crucial for urban and regional
planning. It helps in determining the need for new infrastructure,
housing developments, transportation systems, and other
amenities. Forecasted population data assists in identifying areas
of population concentration, urban sprawl, and potential
challenges related to land use and environmental sustainability.
4. Economic Development and Labor Market Planning:
Population forecasts are vital for economic development and
labor market planning. They help in assessing future workforce
requirements, skill gaps, and employment trends.This
information assists policymakers, businesses, and educational

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 institutions in aligning their strategies to meet the demands of
the future labor market.
5. Environmental Planning and Sustainability:
Population forecasting plays a significant role in environmental
planning and sustainability efforts. By understanding population
growth patterns, policymakers can anticipate and address
potential environmental challenges such as increased resource
consumption, habitat degradation, and pollution. It enables the
implementation of sustainable practices and policies to mitigate
the environmental impact of population changes.
6. Infrastructure Investment and Long-Term Projects:
Population forecasting aids in long-term infrastructure
investment planning. It assists in determining the need for major
infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges, utilities, and
public transportation systems. Forecasted population data guides
decisions on the scale and timing of such projects, ensuring that
infrastructure investments are aligned with anticipated
population growth.
7. Risk Assessment and Disaster Preparedness:
Population forecasting contributes to risk assessment and
disaster preparedness. It helps in identifying areas prone to
natural disasters and estimating the population at risk. This
information assists in developing emergency response plans,
evacuation strategies, and allocating resources for disaster
management.
In summary, population forecasting holds significant importance in
informing policy planning, resource allocation, urban development,
social services, economic strategies, environmental sustainability, and
disaster preparedness. It provides a foundation for evidence-based
decision-making, ensuring that future needs and challenges are
anticipated and effectively addressed.

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 2.Literature Review
Population Growth Theories
Population growth theories provide explanations and frameworks
for understanding the factors influencing changes in population
size over time. Several theories have been proposed to explain
population growth patterns and dynamics. Here are some
prominent population growth theories:
1. Malthusian Theory:
Proposed by Thomas Malthus in the late 18th century, the
Malthusian theory suggests that population growth tends to
outpace the growth of resources, leading to a struggle for
survival. Malthus argued that population grows exponentially,
while resources increase linearly, eventually resulting in food
shortages, poverty, and other forms of population control
mechanisms, such as famine, war, or disease.

2. Demographic Transition Theory:

The demographic transition theory describes the relationship
between population growth and economic development. It
suggests that societies go through distinct stages of population
growth as they transition from a pre-industrial to an
industrialized economy. Initially, birth rates and death rates are
high, resulting in slow population growth. As industrialization
progresses, improved living conditions, healthcare, and
education lead to a decline in death rates. Birth rates eventually
decrease as societies undergo further social and economic
changes, resulting in a stabilized population.

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3. Epidemiological Transition Theory:
The epidemiological transition theory focuses on the
relationship between population growth and health transitions. It
suggests that as societies progress, they experience shifts in
disease patterns and mortality rates. In early stages, high birth
and death rates are influenced by infectious diseases and limited
medical advancements. As healthcare improves, societies move
into later stages characterized by lower death rates due to
improved disease prevention and treatment, resulting in
population growth.

4. Marxian Theory:
The Marxian theory of population growth, influenced by Karl
Marx, emphasizes the relationship between population dynamics
and economic structures. Marx argued that population growth is
influenced by the economic system and social conditions
prevailing in a society. He highlighted how economic
exploitation and social inequalities can impact population
growth and distribution.

5. Neoclassical Economic Theory:

Neoclassical economic theory views population growth as a
result of individual choices based on economic incentives. It
suggests that individuals make decisions about family size based
on the cost-benefit analysis of raising children. Factors such as
income levels, education, access to healthcare, and availability
of contraception play a role in shaping fertility decisions.

6. Boserupian Theory:
Proposed by Ester Boserup, the Boserupian theory challenges
the Malthusian perspective. It suggests that population growth
stimulates technological advancements and innovations to
overcome resource constraints. According to this theory, as the
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 population grows, the need for increased food production leads
to the development of new agricultural techniques and
technologies, ultimately increasing productivity and supporting
the growing population.

7. Institutional Theory:
The institutional theory emphasizes the role of social institutions
and cultural norms in shaping population growth. It suggests
that population growth patterns are influenced by factors such as
marriage practices, family structures, religious beliefs, and
social norms surrounding fertility and contraception. These
institutions and norms can either encourage or discourage
population growth.

It is important to note that these theories provide different

perspectives on population growth and are subject to various
contextual factors. Population dynamics are complex, and the
interplay of multiple factors, including economic, social, cultural, and
environmental, contributes to population growth patterns observed in
different regions and time periods.

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 Previous population forecasting studies
Previous population forecasting studies have made significant
contributions to understanding and predicting population
changes. These studies have utilized various methodologies, data
sources, and models to generate population forecasts for different
regions and time periods. Here are a few examples of previous
population forecasting studies:
1. United Nations World population Prospects:
The United Nations regularly publishes population forecasts for
countries and regions worldwide. The World population
Prospects report provides projections for population size, age
structure, and other demographic indicators up to the year 2100.
These forecasts consider factors such as fertility rates, mortality
rates, and international migration patterns.
2. National Statistical Agencies:
Many countries have their own national statistical agencies that
conduct population forecasting studies. For example, the U.S.
Census Bureau produces population projections for the United
States, considering factors such as birth rates, death rates, net
migration, and changes in population composition. These
projections assist in policy planning and resource allocation at
the national level.
3. City and Regional Planning Studies:
Population forecasting studies are often conducted at the city or
regional level to inform urban planning and development. These
studies consider local demographic data, migration patterns,
economic trends, and land use projections to estimate future
population size and composition. They help guide decisions
regarding infrastructure investments, housing development,
transportation planning, and social service provision.

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 4. Academic Research Studies:
Researchers and academics have conducted numerous
population forecasting studies using various methodologies and
models. These studies often focus on specific research
questions, such as the impact of aging populations, population
distribution patterns, or the effects of policy interventions. They
contribute to the advancement of population forecasting
methodologies and provide insights into specific population
dynamics.
5. International Organizations and Research Institutions:
International organizations, such as the World Bank,
International Monetary Fund (IMF), and research institutions,
conduct population forecasting studies to inform their policy
recommendations and research initiatives. These studies often
explore the links between population growth, economic
development, and social well-being, addressing regional and
global population trends.
6. Sector-Specific Forecasting Studies:
population forecasting studies are also conducted within
specific sectors, such as healthcare, education, and labor market
analysis. These studies estimate future population demands and
requirements within a particular sector, assisting in planning and
resource allocation. For example, healthcare forecasting studies
project future healthcare needs based on population aging and
disease prevalence.
These previous population forecasting studies provide a foundation of
knowledge and insights into population dynamics. They demonstrate
the range of methodologies and models used to generate population
forecasts, the importance of considering various demographic factors,
and the implications of population changes for policy and planning.
Future studies can build upon these works and refine population
forecasting techniques to enhance accuracy and relevance.

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 3.Population Forecasting Models
Demographic Models
Demographic models are a specific type of population forecasting
model that focuses on the demographic characteristics of a
population, such as age, sex, and migration patterns. These
models aim to understand and project changes in population size,
composition, and distribution based on demographic factors.

Demographic models in population forecasting studies help

policymakers, urban planners, and researchers understand the future
composition and distribution of a population. By incorporating
demographic characteristics and patterns, these models provide
insights into the social, economic, and health implications of
population changes. They contribute to evidence-based decision-
making and assist in long-term planning for various sectors, including
healthcare, education, housing, and social services.

Econometric Models:
Econometric models are commonly used in population
forecasting studies to analyze the relationship between population
dynamics and economic factors. These models aim to understand
how economic variables, such as GDP, employment rates, and
income levels, influence population growth, fertility rates,
mortality rates, and migration patterns.

Econometric models in population forecasting studies provide

valuable insights into the relationship between economic factors and
population dynamics. By incorporating economic variables, these
models help forecast the impact of economic changes on population
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growth, migration patterns, and socio-economic outcomes. They
assist policymakers, economists, and urban planners in understanding
the future population trends and their implications for various sectors
of the economy.

Geospatial Models:

Geospatial models play a crucial role in population forecasting

studies by incorporating spatial data and analyzing population
dynamics at different geographic scales. These models focus on
understanding how population distribution and growth vary
across regions and utilize geospatial data to forecast future
population trends.

Geospatial models in population forecasting studies enhance our

understanding of population dynamics in a spatial context. By
incorporating spatial data and considering spatial relationships, these
models offer valuable insights into population distribution, Growth,
and spatial patterns. They support informed decision-making in
various fields, including urban planning, resource allocation, and
policy development.

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 4.Methods of population Forecasting
There are several methods of population Forecasting.But the
most commonly used methods of population forecasting are
given below :
i. Arithmetical Increase Method
ii. Incremental Increase Method
iii. Geometric Increase Method
iv. Decrease Rate of Increase Method
v. Graphical Projection Method
vi. Comparative Graphical Method
vii. Master Plan Method
viii. Logistic Curve Method
ix. Apportionment Method

Arithmetic Increase Method

Introduction
The aim of this project report is to explore and analyze the Arithmetic
Increase Method of population Forecasting. The Arithmetic Increase
Method is a simple technique that assumes a constant absolute
increase in population over time. This report provides an overview of
the method, its application, strengths, limitations, and a step-by-step
guide For implementing the method in population Forecasting.
Overview of the Arithmetic Increase Method:
The Arithmetic Increase Method assumes a linear growth pattern in
population, where a constant absolute increase Is added to the current
population over time. It is a simplistic approach that provides a rough
estimation of Population growth over a given period.

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Application of the Arithmetic Increase Method:
The Arithmetic Increase Method can be applied in various scenarios,
such as short-term population Forecasting, initial Planning stages, or
when detailed demographic data is not available. It provides a quick
estimate of future population Changes, allowing stakeholders to make
preliminary decisions regarding resource allocation and infrastructure
Planning.
Some Key points of this method:
 This method is based on the assumption that the rate of change
of population with time is constant.
 This method is suitable for large and old city with considerable
development. If it is used for small, average or comparatively
new cities, it will give lower population estimate than actual
value.
 In this method the average increase in population per decade is
calculated from the past census reports. This increase is added to
the present population to find out the population of the next
decade.
 Thus, it is assumed that the population is increasing at constant
rate. Hence, dp/dt = C i.e., rate of change of Population with
respect to time is constant.
Therefore, population after a decade will be

P=Po+nC
Where, P, is the population after 'n' decades and 'P' is present
population

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 Arithmetical increase Method Example Problem:-
YEAR POPULATION
1930 25000
1940 28000
1950 34000
1960 42000
1970 47000
Question :- With the help of the common data find the population for
the year 2020 using the arithmetic increase method.
Solution :-
YEAR POPULATION INCREASE

1930 25000 -

1940 28000 3000

1950 34000 6000

1960 42000 8000

1970 47000 5000

Step 1 : Find the increase in population each decade

Step 2: Find the average rate of increase of population (C)

C = (3000+6000+8000+5000)/4 = 22000/4 = 5500

Step 3: Find the number of decades (n) between the last known year and the
required year. n = 5 (5 decades elapsed between 1970 and 2020)

Step 4: Apply the formula P = Po + nC,

P[2020] = Po[1970] + (5 * 5500) = 47000 + 27500 = 74,500.

Therefore, population at 2020 will be 74,500

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 Incremental Increase Method
Introduction:
The purpose of this project report is to explore and analyze the
Incremental Increase Method of population forecasting. The
Incremental Increase Method is a simple technique that estimates
future population by applying a constant numerical increment to the
current population at regular intervals. This report will provide an
overview of the method, explain its application, discuss its strengths
and limitations, and provide a step-by-step guide for implementing
the method in population forecasting.
Overview of the Incremental Increase Method:
The Incremental Increase Method assumes a constant numerical
increase in population over time. It involves adding a fixed numerical
increment to the current population at regular intervals to project
future population. This method is relatively simple and
straightforward, making it useful for quick estimations or preliminary
forecasts.
Application of the Incremental Increase Method:
The Incremental Increase Method can be applied in various scenarios,
such as urban planning, infrastructure development, healthcare
resource planning, and educational facility planning. By using this
method, stakeholders can gain a rough estimate of future population
trends and make informed decisions regarding resource allocation and
service provision.
Some Key points of Incremental Increase method:
 suitable for an average size town under normal condition where
the growth rate is found to be in increasing order.
 Increase in increment is considered for calculating future
population.
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  The incremental increase is determined for each decade from
the past population and the average value is added to the
present population along with the average rate of increase.
Hence, population after n decade is :

where, Po - last known population,

Pn - population (predicted) after 'n' number of decades,
n - number of decades between Po and Pn,
- mean or average of increase in population and,
ȳ - algebraic mean of incremental increase (an increase of increase) of
population.

Incremental Increase Method example problem:

YEAR POPULATION
1930 25000
1940 28000
1950 34000
1960 42000
1970 47000
Question: With the help of the common data find the population for
the year 2020 using the Incremental increase method.

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Solution:
YEAR POPULATION INCREASE INCREMENTAL
INCREASE
1930 25000 - -
1940 28000 3000 -
1950 34000 6000 6000-3000=3000
1960 42000 8000 8000-6000=2000
1970 47000 5000 5000-8000= -3000
STEP 1 : Find the increase in population each decade and find the
incremental increase i.e., increase of increase
Step 3: ȳ
Incremental increase values respectively.

= 5500
ȳ = (3000+2000-3000)/3
ȳ = 2000/3
Step 4: Find the number of decades (n) between the last known year
and the required year
n = 5 (5 decades elapsed between 1970 and 2020)
Step 5: ȳ
ȳ
P[2020] = 47000 + (5 * 5500) + (((5 * 6)/2) * (2000/3))
P[2020] = 84,500. Therefore, population at 2020 will be 84,500.

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 Geometric Increase Method Of Population
Forecasting:
Introduction:
The objective of this project report is to explore and analyze the
Geometric Increase Method of population forecasting. The Geometric
Increase Method is a technique that assumes exponential growth in
population overtime. This report provides an overview of the method,
its application, strengths, limitations, and a step-by-step guide for
implementing the method in population forecasting.
Overview of the Geometric Increase Method:
The Geometric Increase Method assumes exponential population
growth, where the population increases at a constant percentage rate
over time. It considers factors such as birth rates, death rates, and
migration to estimate future population changes accurately.
Some key Points of Geometric Increase Method :
 In this method the percentage increase in population from
decade to Decade is assumed to remain constant.
 Geometric mean increase is used to find out the future increment
in population.
 Since this method gives higher values and hence should be
applied for a new industrial town at the beginning of
Development for only few decades.

Pn = Po[1 + (r/100)]^n
where, Po - last known population,
Pn - population (predicted) after 'n' number of decades,
n - number of decades between Po and Pn and,
r - growth rate = (increase in population/initial population) * 100 (%).
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 Geometric Increase Method Example Problem:
YEAR POPULATION
1930 25000
1940 28000
1950 34000
1960 42000
1970 47000
Question: With the help of the common data find the population for
the year 2020 using the Geometrical increase method.
Solution:
YEAR POPULATION INCREASE GROWTH RATE
1930 25000 - -
1940 28000 3000 (3000/25000) X 100 = 12%
1950 34000 6000 (6000/28000) X 100= 21.4%
1960 42000 8000 (8000/34000) X 100= 23.5%
1970 47000 5000 (5000/42000) X 100= 11.9%
Step 1: Find the increase in population each decade and find the
growth rate
Step 2: Find the average growth rate (r) using geometrical mean.
r = ∜(12 * 21.4 * 23.5 * 11.9)
r = 16.37 %

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Step 3: Find the number of decades (n) between the last known year
and the required year
n = 5 (5 decades elapsed between 1970 and 2020)
Step 4: Apply the formula Pn = Po[1 + (r/100)]^n
P[2020] = P[1970][1 + (16.37/100)]^5
P[2020] = 47000[1.1637]^5
P[2020] = 1,00,300.
Therefore, population at 2020 will be 1,00,300.

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 Decrease Rate of Increase Method
The Decrease Rate of Increase (DRI) method is a population
forecasting technique that focuses on estimating the future population
growth by considering the rate at which the population growth rate is
expected to decline over time. This method assumes that the
population growth rate will gradually decrease based on historical
trends and certain assumptions about future demographic changes.
It's important to note that the DRI method assumes a gradual decline
in the population growth rate, which may not hold true if there are
significant changes in demographic, social, or economic factors that
can influence population dynamics. Additionally, the DRI method
does not consider sudden changes or events that may significantly
impact population growth, such as policy interventions or natural
disasters. The DRI method provides a relatively simple approach to
population forecasting, particularly when historical data is available
and there is a reasonable expectation that the decline in the population
growth rate will continue in the future. However, it is always
recommended to use multiple forecasting methods and consider other
factors to improve the accuracy of population projections.
This method is adopted for a town which is reaching saturation
population, where the rate of population growth is decreasing. In
this method, an average decrease in growth rate (S) is considered.
Formula :
Pn = P(n-1) + ((r(n-1) - S)/100) * P(n-1)
where, Pn - population at required decade,
P(n-1) - population at previous decade (predicted or available),
r(n-1) - growth rate at previous decade and,
S - average decrease in growth rate.

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Decrease rate of increase method Example problem:

YEAR POPULATION
1930 25000
1940 28000
1950 34000
1960 42000
1970 47000
Question: With the help of the common data find the population for
the year 2020 using the decreasing rate of growth method.

Solution:
YEAR POPULATION INCREASE GROWTH DECREASE IN

IN POPULATION RATE(r) GROWTH RATE

1930 25000 - - -

1940 28000 3000 12% -

1950 34000 6000 21.4% 12-21.4 = -9.4%

1960 42000 8000 23.5% 21.4-23.5 = -2.1%

1970 47000 5000 11.9% 23.5-11.9 =11.6%

Step 1: Find the increase in population.

Step 2: Find the growth rate (r) as in the geometrical increase method.
Step 3: Find the decrease in the growth rate.

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Step 4: Find the average of decrease in growth rate(s).
S = (-9.4-2.1+11.6)/3
S = 0.1/3
S = 0.03%

Step 5: Apply the formula Pn = P(n-1) + ((r(n-1) - S)/100) * P(n-1),

and find the population at successive decade till the population at
required data is arrived.
P[1980] = P[1970] + ((r[1970] - S)/100) * P[1970]
P[1980] = 47000 + ((11.9 - 0.03)/100) * 47000
P[1980] = 52579
P[1990] = P[1980] + ((r[1980] - S)/100) * P[1980]
P[1990] = 52579 + ((11.87 - 0.03)/100) * 52579, here r[1980] is
directly found as 11.9 - 0.03 i.e., r[1970] - S, which equals to 11.87.
P[1990] = 58,804
Similarly, P[2020] could be found.

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 Graphical Projection Method
Introduction
The purpose of this project report is to explore and analyze the
Graphical projection Method in population forecasting. The Graphical
projection Method is a technique that uses graphical tools, such as
population pyramids and age-sex distribution graphs, to project future
population changes. This report provides an overview of the method,
its application, strengths, limitations, and a step-by-step guide for
implementing the method in population forecasting.
In this method, the population vs time graph is plotted and is
extended accordingly to find the future population. It is to be
done by an experienced person and is almost always prone to
error.

Overview of the Graphical projection Method

The Graphical projection Method utilizes visual representations, such
as population pyramids and age-sex distribution graphs, to analyze
and project future population changes. These graphs provide insights

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into the distribution of population across different age groups and
genders, allowing for a more comprehensive understanding of
demographic dynamics.
Application of the Graphical projection Method
The Graphical projection Method is commonly used for mid- to long-
term population forecasting. It is particularly useful for studying age-
specific population changes, identifying shifts in the age structure,
and assessing the implications for social, economic, and healthcare
planning.

Graphical Projection Method Example Problem:

YEAR POPULATION
As per records
1970 170000
1980 191500
1990 203800
2000 215975
2010 251425

Question: Estimate the population in 2040

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Solution:

So the population on 2040 will be 350000.

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 Comparative Graphical Method
In this method, the cities having conditions and characteristics similar
to the city whose future population is to be estimated are first of all
selected. It is then assumed that the city under consideration will
develop as the selected similar cities have developed in the past.
This method has a logical background, and if statistics of
development of similar cities are available quite precise and reliable
results can be obtained.

Consider Fig. 5.2. Let the population of a city A be given for 4

decades (say 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970) the population time curve is
then plotted.
Now, Suppose it is required to estimate the population of the city A at
the end of year 2010.
And let the available data show that this city A has reached the
present population of 42500 in the year 1970. Then the available data
of similar cities Band C is analyzed. Let it be found that city B has

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reached 42500 in the year 1940 then its curve is plotted beyond the
year 1940 onward.
However, this curve for city B should start from point P which
represents the present population of city A. Similarly, the population
of city C is plotted from the year it has reached 42500 onwards. Now
the curve for city A is carefully extended between the curves of cities
B and C as shown in Fig. 5.2.
Fig. 5.2 shows the development of cities A,B, C and D. The
dev ‘X’ consideration has been shown by
dotted line. Future expected population at any decade can be directly
determined from this graph.

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 Master Plan Method
The development of towns and cities is not allowed in haphazard way.
For the development of the towns and cities, their master plans are
prepared. The city is divided into various zones such as commercial
centres, industrial areas, residential areas, the schools, colleges, parks
etc.
The future expansion of the cities is strictly regulated by various by-
laws of corporations and other local bodies, according to the master
plan.
The master plans are prepared for the development of the cities for
25-30 years. The population densities for various zones of the towns
to be developed are also fixed. Now when the population of a
particular zone is fixed, it is very easy to design the water supply
schemes for the particular zones.
The future development of the water works is also designed on the
basis of the master plan.
Table 5.5 gives the common population densities for preparation
of master plans:

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 Logistic Curve Method:
The logistic curve method is a commonly used approach for
population forecasting that is based on the logistic growth model. It
assumes that population growth follows a sigmoidal (S-shaped) curve,
starting with exponential growth, reaching a point of inflection, and
eventually stabilizing at a carrying capacity. Here is an overview of
the logistic curve method of population forecasting:
1. Data collection: The first step in the logistic curve method is to
gather historical population data for the target population. This data
should include population size over time, preferably spanning several
years or decades. Additional demographic data, such as birth rates,
death rates, and migration rates, can also be collected to inform the
forecasting process.
2. Curve Fitting: The next step is to fit a logistic curve to the
historical population data. The logistic curve is a mathematical
function that represents the sigmoidal growth pattern. It is
characterized by an initial period of rapid growth, followed by a
slowing growth rate as the population approaches its carrying
capacity.
3. Parameter estimation: To fit the logistic curve to the data,
parameters need to be estimated. The three main parameters of the
logistic curve are:
- Growth Rate (r): The rate at which the population grows during
the exponential growth phase.
- Carrying Capacity (K): The maximum population size that the
environment can sustain.
- Time shift (t0): The point in time when the population growth
transitions from exponential growth to a slower growth rate.

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4. Curve calibration: Using statistical techniques, such as nonlinear
regression or maximum likelihood estimation, the parameters of the
logistic curve are calibrated to best fit the historical population data.
This involves finding the values of r, K, and t0 that minimize the
difference between the observed population and the predicted values
based on the logistic curve.
5. Population projection: Once the logistic curve has been fitted and
calibrated, it can be used to project future population growth. By
extrapolating the curve beyond the historical data, population
estimates can be obtained for future time periods. The logistic curve
captures the expected growth pattern, approaching the carrying
capacity over time.
6. Evaluation and Refinement: population projections derived from
the logistic curve method should be regularly evaluated and refined
based on the availability of new data, changes in demographic trends,
or any significant events or policy interventions that may impact
population growth. This ensures that the forecasts remain relevant and
accurate over time.
7. Reporting and communication: The final step is to document the
logistic curve method used for population forecasting, including the
parameter values, assumptions, and projected population estimates.
The results should be effectively communicated to stakeholders,
policymakers, and other relevant parties to inform planning, resource
allocation, and decision-making processes.
It is important to note that the logistic curve method is a
simplification of the complex dynamics of population growth and
may not capture all the factors that influence population change.
Factors such as socio-economic conditions, technological
advancements, policy interventions, and external shocks can impact
population growth and should be considered alongside the logistic
curve forecasts for a more comprehensive understanding.
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Overall, the logistic curve method provides a useful framework for
population forecasting, particularly when there is historical data
available and a clear understanding of the population's carrying
capacity. It offers a straight forward and intuitive approach to estimate
future population growth patterns, which can be valuable for long-
term planning and policy formulation.
The logistic curve method is suitable for regions where the rate of
increase or decrease of population with time and also the
population growth is likely to reach an ultimate saturation limit
because of special factors.
The growth of a city which follow the logistic curve, will plot as a
straight line on the arithmetic paper with time intervals plotted
against population in percentage of saturation.

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 Apportionment Method :
This is also known as the ratio method of forecasting future
population. In this method the census population record is expressed
as the percentage of the population of the whole country. The
population of the city under considerati ’
population for the last four to five decades are collected from the
census department.
The ratio of the town under consideration to the national population is
calculated for these decades.
Now a graph is plotted between these ratios and the time. The
extension of this graph will give the ratio corresponding to the future
years for which the forecasting of population is to be done.
The ratio so obtained is multiplied by the expected national
population at the end of the designed period, for determining the
expected national population of the town under reference.
This method is suitable for those towns and cities whose development
is likely to take place according to the national growth

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 5.Case Study: Population Forecasting
CASE STUDY: POPULATION PROJECTION OF INDIA: AN
APPLICATION OF DYNAMIC DEMOGRAPHIC
PROJECTION MODEL.
Journal By : A.K. Tiwari1, Associate Professor Department of
Statistics, Institute of Science Banaras Hindu University, Uttar
Pradesh, India
Brijesh P Singh , Research Scholar Department of Statistics, Institute
of Science Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi ,Uttar Pradesh, India
Corresponding Author: Vaishali Patel
Issue Date : 19 / 04 / 2020
Case Report :
Table 1 shows the projected population estimated by the proposed
methodology and other researchers. According to the UNDP
projection the population of India will increase up to 2061 and then, it
will decline and the maximum population is estimated as 1651.
6millions in 1961.

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As per projection given by Singh et al. (2018) the population of India
have tendency towards stabilization in 2051 and the maximum
population is 1574.3 millions in 2051 which is almost closed to the
estimate obtained by proposed method in 2051. Projection population
of India given by World Bank, Tim Dyson (2004) and Rahul et al.
(2007) was only available up to 2051. Estimated population by
proposed method has good concurrence to the estimate given by
Singh et al. (2018).
Table 2 presents some demographic indicators for different years
such as population density, sex ratio, proportion of youths, growth
rates and dependency ratio. Since population density is positively
related to the population of the country thus it is obvious that the
population density attains its maximum value as 481 per sq. km in
2051. The sex ratio of India i.e. the number of females per thousand
males obtained between 922 to 933 and has no pattern over the year.

The percentage of youth population is declining gradually from the

beginning to the end of the period considered in this study, indicates
that the impact of reducing fertility level. Annual growth rate of total
population was 1.65 in 2011 and it is decreasing over the period of
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study. After 2051, negative growth rates are observed. Growth rate in
case of male is more than the growth of female. Also the table
indicates, child dependency ratio which is declining continuously
while old age dependency ratio is increasing in entire population
projection period. Total dependency ratio is decreasing till 2051 but it
gradually increases up to the end of the projection period .
In this study one more aspect of population i.e. age composition has
been explored for the different years.
Table 3 represents the contribution of the people of different age
groups into the total population in respective years.

It indicates that the percentage of children (0-14) is decreasing and its

contribution is 33.9, 17.8 and 10.3 percent in years 2011, 2046 and
2101 respectively. Similarly percentage of youth (15-29) is also
decreases from 20.5 in 2011 to 12.7 in 2101 and contribution of youth
population (15-29) is maximum in 2046, while percentage of senior
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citizen (65+) increases. In 2011 percentage of adults are maximum
(about 60 %) while elderly people are less (about 6%) however in
2101 senior person become in majority. Also the table 3 reveal that in
2001, percentage of 0-4 age group population was 10.8 however it is
predicted only 3.2 percent in 2101 and 60+ populations in 2001 was
7.4 percent but in 2101 it will be around 34.9 percent i.e. India will
face ageing at that time.
Population pyramid reveals that children below 15 years which are
shown at the base of the pyramid and which reflect the level of birth
of that country.

Working age population lies in the center of the pyramid, and the
numbers of aged people are shown at the top of pyramid which
reflects the number of deaths. Fig.1 has a wide base which indicates a
high birth rate though not as high as under developed country. The
population pyramid gradually narrow towards the top which means
fewer people are living in the old age group that is death is high
which signifies the low life expectancy for the senior people. Fig. 2
has a narrow base thatindicates low birth rates in 2101.

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The size of the top is broad means there are more people living in the
older age group and this signifies high life expectancy for the senior
people. The appendix tables show the population and sex ratio for the
various years from 2006 to 2101, which reveals that how the
population of India varies over the time.

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CONCLUSION OF CASE STUDY:
Many projections have been given by researchers, demographers and
also by different organizations that supports the projected figures here
in the present study. On the various population projections indicate
’ population starts decline from mid of the century. From
the appendix tables it is clear that the population of country in the
year 2001 and 2096 are almost same but the age structures of
population are found opposite. This study concludes that the sex ratio
and child sex ratio will not improve till end of this century. The
population density increases significantly up to middle of the century
and then start decline. Annual growth rate of both male and female
decreases and it will become negative after 2051 as the total
population. Child dependency ratio decreases from beginning and it
became constant in the end of projection period while elderly

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dependency ratio increases significantly up to the end of the
projection period. In the middle of the century it is expected that there
will be 18 percent contribution of 0-14 age group, 21percent
contribution of youth (15-29) and adults (30-64) contribution would
be 15 percent. The study indicates that in the end of the century there
will less contribution of children and youths as compared to 2001.
The percentage of adults and senior citizen are increasing
continuously over time, this means that in India working population
and elderly people will be more in coming years but after middle of
the century these working populations will start becoming old. Once
total population of India of 2001 and 2101 is compared, age wise
distribution of population is found entirely opposite, indicates the
impact of low fertility and low mortality.
Ethical Clearance: The present study fulfills all the research ethics.
The study is completely done by the authors and all the adaptions are
cited appropriately in the article.
Source of Funding: There is no funding source.
Conflict of Interest: In this study there is no conflict of interest.

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 6.Conclusion
Population forecasting is a vital tool for understanding and projecting
future population trends, enabling informed decision-making in
various fields such as urban planning, healthcare, policy-making, and
resource allocation. Through the application of demographic models,
econometric models, and geospatial models, population forecasting
provides valuable insights into the expected size, composition, and
distribution of populations over time.
Accurate population forecasts have significant implications for urban
planning. They serve as the foundation for infrastructure planning,
helping determine the needs for transportation systems, housing
demand, energy supply, and social services. Population projections
guide land use and spatial planning, ensuring efficient land utilization,
balanced urban growth, and the preservation of green spaces.
Population forecasts also inform economic development strategies by
guiding investment decisions and workforce development plans,
aligning job opportunities with projected population growth.
Additionally, they aid in the planning and provision of social services,
such as healthcare facilities, schools, and recreational amenities, to
meet the needs of future populations.
In conclusion, population forecasting is an indispensable tool for
understanding and preparing for future demographic changes.
Accurate and reliable population forecasts provide valuable insights
for urban planning, enabling the development of sustainable, resilient,
and livable cities that cater to the needs of their residents. By
considering population trends and projections, decision-makers can
make informed choices that shape the future of communities and
support their long-term development and well-being.

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