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The mob has no judgment, no discretion, no direction, no discrimination, no consistency.

Cicero Madness is the exception in individuals but the rule in groups. Nietzsche When 100 clever heads join a group, one big nincompoop is the result. Carl Jung

Decision Making in Groups

Defining the Problem

Orientation Orientation

Planning the Process

Discussion

Functional Model of Decision Making


Orientation
Development of shared mental model Tendency to skip this step

No Decision Reached

Decision
Decision Reached

Implementation

Remembering Information Exchanging Information Processing Information

Discussion

Remembering information
collective memory: Cross-cueing and transactive memory weakness in group memory: Importance of keeping records

Exchanging information: Acquiring and sharing data Processing information: Collective review of information

Decision

Decision: Social decision schemes


Delegation Statistical aggregation Voting Consensus (discussion to unanimity/collective commitment)

Random choice

Decision Reached

Implementation
Evaluating the Decision Adhering to the Decision

Implementation Evaluating the decision Adhering to the decision: Coch and French (1948) Vrooms normative model of decision making Types of procedures: Autocratic, consultative, group Procedure must fit the problem to be solved and the decision to be made

Enron

Denver Airport

Abilene paradox

1.7 billion 300 million

Which is not to say that groups always make good decisions

What Problems Undermine the Effectiveness of Decision-Making Groups?

Group discussion pitfalls


Information processing limitations Poor communication skills Decisional avoidance (procrastination, bolstering, satisficing)

What Problems Undermine the Effectiveness of Decision-Making Groups?


Shared information bias Oversampling shared information leads to poorer decisions when a hidden profile would be revealed by considering the unshared information more closely. Factors that increase (leadership style) and decrease (using a GDSS) the bias Judgment errors and heuristic biases Sins of omission and commission Sins of imprecision: Heuristics

Polarization and Risk Group polarization: A shift in the direction of greater extremity in individuals' responses

Why Do Groups Often Make Riskier Decisions than Individuals?

Social comparison theory Persuasive-arguments theory Risk-supported wins social decision scheme Diffusion of responsibility

Groupthink
Janiss theory of groupthink
Example: Kennedys advisory group planning the Bay of Pigs covert op

Symptoms of Groupthink
Overestimation of the group 1. illusion of invulnerability 2. illusion of morality II. Close-mindedness 3. rationalizations 4. stereotypes about the outgroup III. Pressures toward uniformity 5. self-censorship 6. the illusion of unanimity 7. direct pressure on dissenters 8. self-appointed mindguards I.

GROUPTHINK RESULTS/OUTCOMES

. . CAUSES .

How Can Groupthink Be Prevented?


Limiting premature seeking of concurrence:
Open style of leadership (not directive) Devils advocate Subgroup discussions

Correcting misperceptions and biases:


Bring in outside experts

Using effective decision-making techniques:


Roberts Rules

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