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The mob has no judgment, no discretion, no direction, no discrimination, no consistency. Cicero

Madness is the exception in individuals but the rule in groups. Nietzsche

When 100 clever heads join a group, one big nincompoop is the result. Carl Jung

Decision Making in Groups

Nietzsche When 100 clever heads join a group, one big nincompoop is the result. Carl Jung
Defining the Problem Orientation Orientation Planning the Process Discussion Functional Model of Decision Making
Defining the
Problem
Orientation Orientation
Planning the
Process
Discussion
Functional Model
of Decision Making
Decision
No Decision
Orientation
Reached
Decision
Reached
Development of shared
mental model
– Tendency to skip this step
Implementation
   

Remembering

ExchangingRemembering Information

Information

 

Discussion

 

Information

ProcessingInformation

Information

 

– Remembering information

• collective memory: Cross-cueing and transactive memory

• weakness in group memory: Importance of keeping records

– Exchanging information: Acquiring and sharing data

– Processing information: Collective review of information

Decision
Decision

Decision: Social decision schemes

– Delegation

– Statistical aggregation

– Voting

– Consensus (discussion to unanimity/collective commitment)

– Random choice

Decision Reached Implementation Evaluating Adhering to the Decision the Decision
Decision
Reached
Implementation
Evaluating
Adhering to
the Decision
the Decision

Implementation

– Evaluating the decision

– Adhering to the decision: Coch and French (1948)

Vroom’s normative model of decision making

– Types of procedures:

Autocratic, consultative, group

– Procedure must fit the problem to be solved and the decision to be made

Enron
Enron
Enron 1.7 billion – 300 million Denver Airport Abilene paradox Which is not to say that
Enron 1.7 billion – 300 million Denver Airport Abilene paradox Which is not to say that

1.7 billion – 300 million

Denver Airport
Denver Airport
Abilene paradox
Abilene paradox
Which is not to say that groups always make good decisions
Which is not to say that groups always make good decisions

Which is not to say that groups always make good decisions

What Problems Undermine the Effectiveness of

Decision-Making Groups?

Group discussion pitfalls

– Information processing limitations

– Poor communication skills

– Decisional avoidance (procrastination, bolstering, satisficing)

What Problems Undermine the Effectiveness of Decision-Making Groups?

Shared information bias

– Oversampling shared information leads to poorer decisions when a hidden profile would be revealed by considering the unshared information more closely.

– Factors that increase (leadership style) and decrease (using a GDSS) the bias Judgment errors and heuristic biases

– Sins of omission and commission

– Sins of imprecision: Heuristics

Polarization and Risk

Group polarization: A shift in the direction of greater extremity in individuals' responses

Polarization and Risk Group polarization: A shift in the direction of greater extremity in individuals' responses

Why Do Groups Often Make Riskier Decisions than Individuals?

– Social comparison theory

– Persuasive-arguments theory

– “Risk-supported wins” social decision scheme – Diffusion of responsibility

Groupthink

Janis’s theory of groupthink

– Example:

Kennedy’s advisory group planning the Bay of Pigs “covert op”

Groupthink Janis’s theory of groupthink – Example: Kennedy’s advisory group planning the Bay of Pigs “covert

Symptoms of Groupthink

I.

Overestimation of the group

1. illusion of invulnerability

2. illusion of morality

II.

Close-mindedness

3. rationalizations

4. stereotypes about the outgroup

III.

Pressures toward uniformity

5. self-censorship

6. the illusion of unanimity

7. direct pressure on dissenters

8. self-appointed mindguards

GROUPTHINK RESULTS/OUTCOMES …………. ……. CAUSES ………………….…
GROUPTHINK
RESULTS/OUTCOMES
…………. ……. CAUSES
………………….…

How Can Groupthink Be Prevented?

Limiting premature seeking of concurrence:

• Open style of leadership (not directive)

• Devil’s advocate

• Subgroup discussions

Correcting misperceptions and biases:

• Bring in outside experts

Using effective decision-making techniques:

• Robert’s Rules