Science of the Total Environment 782 (2021) 146900

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Science of the Total Environment

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scitotenv

Land degradation mapping in the MATOPIBA region (Brazil) using

remote sensing data and decision-tree analysis
Rita Marcia da Silva Pinto Vieira a,⁎, Javier Tomasella b, Alexandre Augusto Barbosa a, Silvia Palotti Polizel a,
Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto a, Fabrícia Cristina Santos a, Yara da Cruz Ferreira a, Peter Mann de Toledo a
a
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais–INPE, Caixa Postal 515, 12245-970 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
b
Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais - CEMADEN, Parque Tecnológico, Estrada Doutor Altino Bondensan, 500, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil

H I G H L I G H T S G R A P H I C A L A B S T R A C T

• Land physical characteristics do not nec-

essarily imply soil degradation.
• Environmental conditions associated
with land management trigger the pro-
cess.
• 86% of the areas with high susceptibility
are composed of grassland vegetation.
• In the study region, 4677 km2 (0.63%) is
under degradation.

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The expansion of agricultural activities in Brazil resulted in a loss of approximately 50% of the native vegetation of
Received 13 August 2020 the Cerrado biome, mainly to the north of the biome in a region known as MATOPIBA. Besides contributing to ac-
Received in revised form 25 March 2021 celerate climate change, the removal of native vegetation is associated with increase soil degradation. In this
Accepted 29 March 2021
study, we used the decision tree method to predict degradation using as indicators Normalized Difference Veg-
Available online 5 April 2021
etation Index (NDVI) derived indices over the period 1985–2018. Results showed that approximately 4677
Editor: Paulo Pereira km2 (0.63%) of MATOPIBA region is under strong signs of degradation, mostly on pasture and grasslands areas,
commonly used for grazing. Although the percentage of degraded areas is relatively small, the mapping indicated
that the majority of degradation patches are concentrated not only in areas of low resilience, e.g., areas domi-
Keywords: nated by weakly structured sandy soils, but also where highly stable latosols dominate. More importantly,
Soil degradation these areas were frequently affected by fire over the study period. This finding suggests that the combination
Remote sensing of unsustainable traditional land management practices, such as fire, the replacement of forest by pasture, and
Machine learning anthropic activities such as inadequate road planning, are the main factor that trigger degradation processes in
NDVI
this Brazilian region. The study results are important for decision makers for defining investment priorities for
MATOPIBA
conservation and for the recovery of degraded areas.
Brazilian Cerrado
© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

⁎ Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: rita.marcia@inpe.br (R.M.S.P. Vieira),
javier.tomasella@cemaden.gov.br (J. Tomasella), alexandre.barbosa@inpe.br
(A.A. Barbosa), jean.ometto@inpe.br (J.P.H.B. Ometto), fabricia.santos@inpe.br
(F.C. Santos), peter.toledo@inpe.br (P.M. Toledo).
Soil degradation and climate change are the major threats that soci-
ety will face in the next decades (Olsson et al., 2019). Approximately
52% of the land globally available for agricultural expansion is
experiencing an accelerated degradation due to erosion, nutrient loss,

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146900
0048-9697/© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
R.M.S.P. Vieira, J. Tomasella, A.A. Barbosa et al.
salinization, soil compaction, and chemical pollution. It is estimated that
75% of the terrestrial surface is under some degree of land degradation,
which is expected to rise to 90% by 2050 (Pereira and Bogunovic, 2019).
In addition, approximately 1–3 Mha of soil is unsuitable for cultivation
(Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011). This problem is likely to be aggravated
by the growing human population, which is estimated to reach 10 bil-
lion by 2056 (Ferreira et al., 2018) and inadequate agricultural produc-
tion practices. Land degradation will also be intensified by climate
change, which is already responsible for the loss of 12 Mha of soil per
year associated with drought (UNCDD, 2013). One of the most pervasive
consequences of land degradation is soil erosion, which causes a reduc-
tion in soil productivity and fertility (Sharma et al., 2011) and threats
water and food security (Almagro et al., 2017).
To meet population growth, food production needs to increase from
the current 8.4 billion tons to 13.5 billion tons a year (FAO, 2014), and
substantial losses in the food system need to be reduced. Brazil, which
is the second largest food producer in the world, is one of the few coun-
tries with the capacity to increase agricultural production to meet in-
creasing demand (FAO, 2006). In this context, the Cerrado biome
(Brazilian Savanna) deserves attention as it has been identified as one
of the regions with significant potential to contribute to the increasing
demand for food production (Pires, 2020). This biome has been the sub-
ject of intense land use and land cover changes in recent decades, lead-
ing to high deforestation rates and the replacement of natural
vegetation in approximately 53% of its total area (Beuchle et al., 2015).
The Cerrado has approximately 27 million ha of unprotected native veg-
etation areas, which are liable to be legally deforested to open lands for
agriculture and cattle purposes (Sparovek et al., 2010). While in the
Amazon biome almost 50% of the area is under different level of preser-
vation by law, only 13% of the Cerrado is under protection (Soterroni
et al., 2019). The expansion of areas for cattle ranching and agricultural
production (mainly soy) are recognized as the main drivers of land con-
version in the Amazon (Lambin et al., 2013; Morton et al., 2006) and
Cerrado biomes (Espírito-Santo et al., 2016; Maranhão et al., 2019). Pre-
vious studies indicated that the 30% of the soy expansion in the Cerrado
between 2000 and 2014 occurred was done removing natural vegeta-
tion, while in the case of the Amazon, a similar expansion occurred be-
tween 2004 and 2005 (Soterroni et al., 2019).
The accelerated deforestation rates in the Amazon set the ground for
the implementation of the “Soy Moratorium,” which is a zero-
deforestation agreement between the civil society, industry, and gov-
ernment; forbids the buying of soy and restricts producers that
deforested their lands after July 2006 from receiving credit (Maranhão
et al., 2019). The soy moratorium initiative has been successful in con-
taining the expansion of soybean plantations in the Amazon. Since this
agreement does not cover the Cerrado, the collateral damage was the
increase in soybean cultivation in the Cerrado, while cattle ranching mi-
grated to the Amazon rainforest (Maranhão et al., 2019). In an attempt
to protect the native vegetation of the Cerrado, more than 70 companies
and social and environmental organizations signed a declaration to re-
duce deforestation in the Cerrado area, an initiative also embraced by
the scientific community (Soterroni et al., 2019).
In general, the expansion of large-scale agriculture has been linked
to the widespread degradation in the Cerrado and the Amazon, not
only because of the loss of ecosystem goods and services (Foley et al.,
2007), but also because of the increase in social inequalities caused by
land distribution (Sant'Anna, 2017).
The MATOPIBA region (an area delimited by the states of Maranhão,
Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia), located on the Cerrado between the Ama-
zon and the Caatinga (Savanna Steppe) biomes, is currently one of the
most dynamic regions of the country in terms of land conversion. The
soybean area in the MATOPIBA region increased by 253% between
2000 and 2014 (Carneiro-Filho and Costa, 2016), and approximately
25% of the soybean area of the Cerrado lies within its borders
(Soterroni et al., 2019). It was responsible for 25% of Brazilian exports
of soybean in 2018 (Maranhão et al., 2019). Over the last four decades,
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Science of the Total Environment 782 (2021) 146900
approximately 50% of the native vegetation of the Cerrado biome area
has been suppressed for the expansion of livestock, soybean, sugarcane,
and eucalyptus, along with other activities such as mining and charcoal
production (Pitta and Vega, 2017). Projections of deforestation from
2002 to 2050 indicate that the MATOPIBA region is likely to lose
40,000 km2 of its natural vegetation per decade (Ferreira et al., 2013),
concomitant with extensive landscape fragmentation and soil degrada-
tion (Theodoro et al., 2002). Previous studies concluded that soil degra-
dation is triggered by the removal of natural vegetation (Guerra and
Cunha, 1994; Crepani et al., 2001; Vieira et al., 2015; Tomasella et al.,
2018). Areas where the vegetation has been converted to pastures or
cultivated crops and those with steep slopes and heavy rainfall are
more susceptible to soil erosion and degradation (Gomes et al., 2017;
Singh and Hartsch, 2019). In addition, deforestation is associated with
forest fragmentation, which increases forest flammability and fire fre-
quency (Alencar et al., 2015; Balch et al., 2015) due to the increase of
temperature and decrease of air humidity, the accumulation of dry bio-
mass during the dry season and the occurrence of human-induced fires.
Areas that frequently burn show changes in the density of woody and
shrubby vegetation (Medeiros and Miranda, 2005), lower regeneration
capacity (Miranda and Sato, 2005), and are more prone to the invasion
of highly competitive and opportunistic species (Pitta and Vega, 2017;
Keeley and Pausas, 2019). Although the Cerrado biome is adapted to
burning, uncontrolled occurrence causes nutrient loss, soil compaction,
and erosion (Klink and Machado, 2005). Nobre et al. (2011) stated that
land use and land cover changes in the Cerrado biome have contributed
to accelerating global climate changes through enhanced emission of
greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and car-
bon dioxide (CO2). In addition, land use and land cover changes have
promoted the reduction of biodiversity, outbreak of diseases such as
with Zika virus dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever (Ellwanger
et al., 2020), and depletion of water sources. Changing of native vegeta-
tion areas to pastures and bare soil increases the surface albedo, which
affects the surface radiation balance and consequently, the amount of
energy available for heating and water evaporation in the lower atmo-
sphere (Cunha et al., 2013; Vieira et al., 2018). Changes in temperature
have already been detected by Salvador and de Brito (2018) based on air
temperature (maximum and minimum) observations in the MATOPIBA
region over the period 1970–2012. In most of the analyzed stations, sig-
nificant increases in maximum temperatures and frequency of very
warm days were observed, both of which are indicators of climate
change.
When monitoring areas with land degradation, lack of vegetation
over a long period and forest cover loss are considered proxies for
land degradation (Vieira et al., 2015). Among remote sensing products,
one of the most common vegetation indices derived from satellite im-
ages to study soil degradation is the Normalized Difference Vegetation
Index (NDVI) (Bai et al., 2008; Olsson et al., 2019). Multi-temporal anal-
ysis of NDVI data allows the detection of degradation trends based on
the relationship between the index and biomass productivity (Bai
et al., 2008; Tomasella et al., 2018). For instance, Tomasella et al.
(2018) proposed an index calculated from the persistence of bare soil
to map desertified areas in northeastern Brazil using NDVI of images
collected over 17 years. Pereira et al. (2018) used the trends of cumula-
tive NDVI anomalies from 2001 to 2017 to monitor degraded pasture
areas in the Brazilian Cerrado, and correlated degraded and non-
degraded pasture areas with socio-economic and biophysical variables.
Their results showed that 46% of the Cerrado pastures were degraded.
Degradation was observed mainly in the MATOPIBA region, in areas
with low Human Development Indices (HDI) and decreasing rainfall
patterns.
Most of the studies, related to soil degradation and desertification in
Brazil are focused in the northeast of the country (for instance, Vieira
et al., 2015, Bezerra et al., 2020, Tomasella et al., 2018, Vieira et al.,
2021), because this region is mostly semi-arid and has endured centu-
ries of unsustainable land use. The accelerated conversion of natural
R.M.S.P. Vieira, J. Tomasella, A.A. Barbosa et al.
vegetation to agricultural and pasture areas in the Amazon and the
Cerrado and increased demand for agricultural land for various pur-
poses, such as biofuel production in southeast Brazil (Bordonal et al.,
2018), have put additional pressures on natural vegetation. New ap-
proaches are needed to determine soil degradation not only for the
identification of hotspots, but also to identify areas prone to degradation
to develop appropriate land management policies. Considering the im-
portance of broadening the spatial diagnostics of the environmental im-
pacts of anthropogenic land use to other areas, the main goal of this
study was to detect soil degradation in the MATOPIBA region. Unlike
previous studies, which focused specifically on natural vegetation
(Rosan et al., 2019) or pastures (Pereira et al., 2018), this study includes
all land uses and land covers. In addition, the methodological ap-
proaches used in these studies were based on the determination of
thresholds of indices such as NDVI and enhanced vegetation index
(EVI) within the study period. Thresholds can be affected by the combi-
nation of large interdecadal variability of rainfall characteristics of trop-
ical areas (Espinoza et al., 2018) and by persistent droughts (Cunha
et al., 2019), which introduce trends in historical series that are not nec-
essarily an indication of desertification, but rather a temporary decline
in growth of natural vegetation (Tomasella et al., 2018).
In this study, decision-tree analysis was applied to a set of indices de-
rived from NDVI, which are potential indicators of degradation. Al-
though the new approach is simple, results showed that the algorithm
is capable of providing fine, detailed, and accurate estimations of degra-
dation and underpins the effects of persistent droughts, which in some
cases causes a false indication of degradation. The results of this work
can provide valuable insights for planning sustainable policies and re-
covering degraded areas.
Fig. 1. A) Geographical location of the MATOPIBA region in Brazil. The desertification hotspots are indicated by numbers 1, 2, and 3; B) Spatial distribution of the three biomes of the study
area.
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Science of the Total Environment 782 (2021) 146900
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
The MATOPIBA region, which has an area of 734,752 km2, is consists
of the states of Maranhão (MA) - 32.77%, Tocantins (TO) - 37.95%, Piauí
(PI) - 11.21%, and Bahia (BA) - 18.06%. It has 337 municipalities with an
estimated population of 6 million inhabitants (IBGE, 2020). The region
covers the Caatinga, Amazon, and Cerrado biomes (Fig. 1). The natural
vegetation in the Cerrado, a savanna, is composed of trees, large shrubs,
and grassland with predominance of herbaceous species (Ribeiro and
Walter, 1998). Table 1 describes the land use and cover classes in the re-
gion for the year 2017 (Fig. S1 presents land use and land cover patterns
identified in the field).
The climate in the region can be subdivided in a well-defined wet
season, from October to April, and a dry season from May to September.
According to Köppen's climate classification, the region has a tropical
climate with dry winter, hot summer, annual rainfall between 1000
and 1900 mm, and average temperatures above 25 °C (Ribeiro and
Walter, 1998).
The topography in the area consists predominantly of depres-
sions and plateau areas (Mingoti et al., 2014). The main soils are
Latosols (38%), followed by Neosols (25%) and Plinthosols (19.2%)
(Embrapa, 2014). The Latosol is also the dominant soil type of the
forest (7.04%), grassland (14.61%), and pastures (5.56%). Due to the
flat topography, favorable climate, water availability, and productive
soils (Brasil, 2018), the region has extensive fields of mechanized
agriculture that expands over native vegetation areas (Spera et al.,
2016).
R.M.S.P. Vieira, J. Tomasella, A.A. Barbosa et al. Science of the Total Environment 782 (2021) 146900

Table 1 total of 780 field points were collected during field visits in July 2018
Land use and cover classes for the year 2017. (dry season) and 320 in April 2019 (wet season), in areas of bare soil,
(Source: MapBiomas - Collection 3.1)
pasture, and agriculture. Field degradation was evaluated based on the
Classes Area Percentage visual assessment, combining qualitative scientific judgment and local
(km2) (%) knowledge. Visual assessment tools are rapid, practical, inexpensive,
Forest Forest formation 157,086,96 21,47% and have been widely used in the tropics for differentiation degradation
Savanna formation 269,691,75 36,86% status (Sonneveld et al., 2012). In addition, they are appropriate for
Mangrove 833,22 0,11%
highly heterogeneous environments such as the MATOPIBA region,
Forest plantation 324,74 0,04%
Non-forest Grassland formation 116,623,77 15,94% where the large diversity of vegetation and soil types make quantitative
formation assessments more complex. Since this method can be subjective, partic-
Farming Pasture 109,329,90 14,94% ularly to differentiate degradation levels due to the lack of standardiza-
Annual and perennial crop 46,376,16 6,34% tion in Cerrado vegetation, the approach used in this study was
Mosaic of agriculture and 22,896,06 3,13%
pasture
restricted to determine whether the site was degraded or non-
Others Beach and dune 1083,53 0,15% degraded. Visual indicators of degradation include vegetation vigor,
Urban infrastructure 851,68 0,12% abundance of green mass, percentage of bare soil, the presence of inva-
Other non-vegetated area 276,74 0,04% sive plants (particularly for herbaceous vegetation), the presence of ero-
Rocky outcrop 561,72 0,08%
sive processes such as laminar erosion and furrows, and finally the
Mining 3,91 0,001%
Salt flat 25,51 0,003% presence of ant hills and termite mounds. Additionally, in order to ob-
River, lake and ocean 5668,74 0,77% tain a better representation of the study area in terms of spatial cover-
age and variety of vegetation and land use types, ancillary data from
967 field points of agricultural areas, grassland formation, tree vegeta-
tion, and rocky outcrops were selected either by visual interpretation
2.2. Datasets from high-resolution Google Earth images, or based on contextual infor-
mation. Fig. 2 illustrates the distribution of points (collected in the field
Degradation maps were derived using 22,064 Landsat images and acquired from images) in the study area.
(Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8 OLI). A composite of
13,850 and 8214 images of the dry and wet periods, with a spatial reso- 2.3. Image processing
lution of 30 m from 1985 to 2018 (Tier 1 product) were download from
https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/landsat. 2.3.1. Cloud mask, cloud shadow, and noise
For processing and analyzing the large number of images, the Google To eliminate undesired noise, cloud, and cloud shadow areas, a mask
Earth Engine (GEE) was used. was applied to the images to remove cloud-contaminated pixels. First,
The algorithm for detecting degradation was calibrated and vali- to eliminate the interference of clouds and cloud shadows in the analy-
dated using information from 1100 field points from the study area. A sis, the CFMask algorithm of the GEE platform was used (Zhu and

Fig. 2. Points used for training/calibration of the model (A) and validation of the detection algorithm indicating degraded and non-degraded sites (B).

4
R.M.S.P. Vieira, J. Tomasella, A.A. Barbosa et al.
Woodcock, 2014a, 2014b). The cloud mask derived from the CFMask al-
gorithm was used to generate a mask of 2 km of the projected cloud
shadow. Dark pixels were then selected for inclusion in the cloud
shadow buffer, which resulted in a dark pixel mask. The “final mask”
was derived from the combination of all the three previous masks
resulting in NDVI images mosaic free from cloud, shadow, and dark
pixels interference caused by noise.
2.3.2. NDVI images mosaic
Using Landsat images for the period 1985–2018, we generated NDVI
image mosaics. The NDVI was obtained from the relationship between
the reflectance (ρ) of the near-infrared (IVP) and red (V) bands calcu-
lated according to Eq. (1):
ρIVP−ρV
NDVI ¼ ð1Þ
ρIVP þ ρV
NDVI values range from −1 to 1, where negative values correspond
to areas with water surfaces, while positive values between 0.2 and 1 in-
dicate vegetated areas.
2.4. Algorithm for mapping land degradation
The algorithm for detecting degraded areas used as the independent
variable NDVI-derived indices. To select the indices that potentially ex-
plained degradation, we carried out a visual analysis by plotting the
field points against the indices. Because the study area is heterogeneous,
visual analysis considered the variety of land uses and vegetation types
in the region. Visual analysis allowed the identification of eight
NDVI-derived predictive indices: the mean value of the annual amplitude
(difference between annual maximum and minimum NDVI) - NDVIAMP;
annual average NDVI - NDVIAVE; annual maximum NDVI - NDVIMAX;
annual minimum NDVI- NDVIMIN; cumulative change of the annual
NDVI amplitude - CCAMP, average NDVI - CCAVE, maximum NDVI -
CCMAX, and minimum NDVI - CCMIN. Mean values were calculated over
the entire study period (1985–2018). Cumulative changes in the indices
were derived by computing the differences between the values of each
year minus the value of the first year of analysis (1985), and then accumu-
lating those differences until the year under analysis. For the last year of
analysis, differences were accumulated over the whole study period
(1985–2018).
The algorithm for detecting land degradation was based on the deci-
sion tree method (DTM), which is one of the most used remote sensing
techniques because it generates predictive models with high precision
and easy interpretation of results (Yang et al., 2014; Vorovencii, 2015;
Lamchin et al., 2016). The decision tree classifier used in this study
was the classification and regression trees (CART) proposed by
Breiman et al. (1984), which is a supervised learning non-parametric al-
gorithm (Jaworski et al., 2017). In this method, a binary tree decision is
created through a cyclic analysis of the training dataset, which is com-
posed of the predictive and target variables.
The algorithm searches multiple combinations of the indepen-
dent (indicators) variables, beginning with the root node that in-
cludes the entire training dataset and corresponds to the most
discriminative indicator, and it creates nodes with two branches at
most (binary partition) that divides the dataset into increasingly ho-
mogenous subsets. The partitioning progresses until the nodes were
sufficiently homogenous to be terminal. The training dataset Q is
subdivided at node m into subsets Qleft and Qright by the threshold
value tm. Subsequently, the impurity G is calculated using the impu-
rity function H() according to Eq. (2):
nleft
 nright
 ground.
GðQ, t m Þ ¼ H Q left ðt m Þ þ H Q right ðt m Þ ð2Þ
Nm Nm
where nleft and nright indicate the number of values on the left and right
sides of the split, respectively; and Nm is the total number of values at
5
Science of the Total Environment 782 (2021) 146900
node m. The impurity function used in the study was Gini's impurity in-
dex defined by Eq. (3):
k

H ðQ Þ ¼ ∑ pi,m 1−pi,m ð3Þ
i¼1
where k represents the two possible outcomes, degraded and non-
degraded; and pi,m is the number of observations of class i at node
m divided by the total number of values Nm. The partition of the
dataset for the development of the decision tree selects the threshold
value tm that minimizes the impurity G at node m. When the impurity
is minimized, the node is subdivided according to the best segmenta-
tion value tm, and the samples in the training set were allocated to
the two sub-nodes Qleft and Qright. The two subsets were then proc-
essed recursively according to the above splitting process, and a fea-
ture is re-selected to continue to be partitioned until a maximum
allowable depth is reached (Nm equal to 1 or less than a minimum
value). Further details of the algorithm can be found in Breiman
et al. (1984).
Model training and validation were performed in Scikit-learn
(Pedregosa et al., 2011), an open-source machine-learning library
coded in Python 3.6, available at https://scikit-learn.org/stable/
index.html. Of the total 1100 points collected in the field, 782
were randomly selected and their values used for model training/
calibration; the remaining 318 points were considered for valida-
tion. In addition, the training dataset was augmented with the
967 ancillary data points, which include agricultural areas, grass-
land formation, tree vegetation, and rocky outcrops selected from
previously identified degraded hotspots from in situ surveys and
high-resolution images, resulting in a training dataset with 1749
values. To avoid over-fitting the decision tree, we constrained the
maximum depth. By trial and error, we increased the values of
maximum depth until the improvement in the omission error was
less than 5%.
2.5. Validation
The validation dataset included 157 and 161 non-degraded and
degraded areas, respectively. Pixels correctly and incorrectly classi-
fied were analyzed by means of a confusion matrix, where map clas-
ses were represented in rows and the reference classes in columns,
which allows extracting the following statistical measures
(Congalton, 1991):
1) The user's accuracy originates from the point of view of a map
user, not the map maker, and it indicates the probability that
a pixel as classified as class i will be present as class i on the
ground. Usually referred to as the reliability of the user in rela-
tion to the classification results. The user's accuracy is the com-
plement of the commission error: the more errors of
commission exist, the lower is the user's accuracy. It is calcu-
lated as the total number of correct classifications for a class di-
vided by the total row.
2) The producer's accuracy is the map accuracy from the point of
view of the map maker, and indicates the probability that a
class j on the reference map has been correctly classified with
class j in the real world as the reference. The producer's accuracy
is complemented by the omission error: the more errors of omis-
sion exist, the lower is the producer's accuracy. It is estimated as
the number of reference sites classified accurately on the map di-
vided by the total number of reference sites for that class on
3) The global accuracy is the proportion of area classified correctly,
usually expressed as a percentage, with 100% accuracy being a
perfect classification where all reference sites were classified
correctly.
R.M.S.P. Vieira, J. Tomasella, A.A. Barbosa et al.
In this work, we used the Kappa coefficient to assess the accuracy of
the map compared to randomly assigning values derived using Eq. (4)
(Lands and Koch, 1977):
b¼b
K
p0 −b
pe
ð4Þ
1−b pe
where p0 was the observational probability of agreement estimated as
the proportion of pairs exhibiting agreement (accuracy), and pe was
the hypothetical probability of chance agreement of each random ob-
server randomly of each category, estimated as the sum of all outcomes
of the product of the proportion of agreement of each indicator.
The Kappa coefficient can vary from −1 to 1 (Cohen, 1960). A value
of 1 indicates complete agreement, whereas 0 indicates that the classi-
fication is no better than a random classification. A negative number in-
dicates that the classification is substantially worse than random.
Previous studies have recognize limitations of the kappa coefficient
as a performance measurement. The main criticism arise from the fact
that the kappa coefficient is a measurement of agreement beyond
chance, rather than an index of overall agreement (Foody, 2020). Be-
cause of this, comparisons of kappa coefficients are difficult if the classes
vary in prevalence, as the magnitude of a coefficient reflects not only
agreement in labelling, but also properties of the populations under
study (Foody, 2020). On the other hand, the kappa coefficient is still
one of the most widespread measures used in several fields and disci-
plines, which makes it useful for providing comparisons with previous
studies.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Derivation of the decision tree for detecting land degradation
The Fig. 3 (A) shows the relationship between the mean of the an-
nual maximum - NDVIMAX against the mean amplitude - NDVIAMP for
several land uses and vegetation types, for both the degraded and
non-degraded field points. This figure shows that degraded areas with
bare soil exhibit mean annual amplitude and annual maximum NDVI
values below 0.15 and 0.25, respectively. Tomasella et al. (2018) dem-
onstrated that the frequency and persistence of low annual amplitude
NDVI values were indicators of desertification in the semi-arid regions
of Northeast of Brazil based on the fact that infertile areas do not show
vegetation recovery even during rainy periods. In contrast, Cerrado
areas have relatively low mean amplitude values (between 0.15 and
0.3), since they are fully adapted to the dry/wet season cycles. However,
a large variation in the mean maximum NDVI (between 0.4 and 0.85)
values reflect the diversity of Cerrado vegetation types (from natural
pasture, herbaceous/shrub, sparsely arboreal to densely arboreal). On
the other hand, agricultural land (temporary crops) show both high
Fig. 3. Relationship between different NDVI derived indices and land uses (Desertified, Bare soil, Degraded, Pasture, Grassland, Cerrado, and Agriculture): A) mean of the annual maximum
- NDVIMAX against the mean amplitude - NDVIAMP; B) NDVI amplitude - CCAMP against the mean amplitude - NDVIAMP.
6
Science of the Total Environment 782 (2021) 146900
mean amplitude and maximum NDVI, associated with high NDVI values
during the growing period and very low values during the fallow. As
expected, pasture, grasslands, and other anthropogenic land uses, either
degraded or non-degraded, show mixed signals and a wider spectral
response. Consequently, several anthropogenic uses were not consid-
ered degraded in this study. Although degradation usually starts with
the removal of natural vegetation, the fate of the anthropogenically
altered area depends on other factors such as land use history and
susceptibility.
The Fig. 3 (B) shows the relationship between the cumulative
changes of NDVI amplitude - CCAMP against the mean amplitude -
NDVI AMP . In this figure, an important proportion of the degraded
pasture (purple squares) shows positive accumulated values of
NDVI amplitude over the study period, suggesting that those areas
undergoing degradation would show increasingly larger differences
between maximum and minimum annual NDVI values. However,
previously desertified areas (red squares) do not show any trend.
The agricultural non-degraded areas also showed positive trends,
probably related to land use changes from natural vegetation to
agricultural land.
Fig. 4 shows the decision tree algorithm resulting from the training
dataset (for a more detailed decision tree, see Fig. S3). As mentioned be-
fore, we tested different maximum depths from the decision tree until
the accuracy was no longer significant. We began with a decision tree
with five levels, and found that eight levels produced a global accuracy
of 97.5% and a kappa value of 0.95 (Table S1).
Except for NDVIMIN, all other selected predictors appeared in the
branches, indicating that they were relevant to the decision tree formu-
lation. Of all the indicators, NDVIMAX appeared five times in the decision
tree, followed by CCAMP and CCAVE with three times each. Fig. S4 pre-
sents more details regarding the responses of the NDVIMAX, CCAMP and
the different land uses.
Table S1 shows the degree of agreement between omission error,
user producer, and global accuracy for the training dataset. In terms of
the Kappa index, the training dataset showed a global accuracy value
of 97.71% and a Kappa index of 0.954. The high statistical confidence
and accuracy obtained from the training dataset indicated that the
NDVI derived indices selected in the development of the decision tree
was able to capture most of the degradation identified in the field sur-
vey and ancillary data.
3.2. Validation of the decision tree
Table S1 also shows, for the validation dataset, the degree of agree-
ment for the field points in terms of omission error, user, producer,
and global accuracies, and Kappa index. We concluded that the map
has excellent thematic accuracy (Kappa - 0.82) with a high confidence
of classification. The commission error was greater (9.76%) than the
R.M.S.P. Vieira, J. Tomasella, A.A. Barbosa et al. Science of the Total Environment 782 (2021) 146900

Fig. 4. Decision tree classifier for detecting degraded areas. Arrows at the left indicate that the condition within the corresponding box is met. Red squares indicate degradation, while green
squares represent non-degraded areas. The NDVI-derived indices used for building the rules include annual amplitude - NDVIAMP; the average NDVI over the study period - NDVIAVE;
annual maximum NDVI - NDVIMAX; amplitude cumulative change - CCAMP; average cumulative change - CCAVE; maximum cumulative change - CCMAX, and minimum cumulative
change - CCMIN.

Fig. 5. Examples of degraded soil areas as predicted by the decision tree algorithm superimposed on Google Earth images: (A) desertified areas; (B) bare soil spots surrounding irrigation
pivots; (C) upslope erosion at the border of plateau agricultural area; and (D) grassland vegetation mixed with bare soil.

7
R.M.S.P. Vieira, J. Tomasella, A.A. Barbosa et al.
omission error (8.07%) for the degradation class (Table 2), indicating
that 9.76% of the points classified as degradation did not represent de-
graded areas and were included incorrectly, and 8.07% of the points
that should have been classified as degraded were not and were incor-
rectly omitted.
Fig. 5 illustrates the predicting ability of the decision tree algorithm
for detecting degradation at various locations in the study area. Consid-
ering the moderate level of detail of the Landsat images (30 m), it was
possible to detect desertified areas. (Fig. 5A) in the Gilbues municipality,
a well-known hotspot in Brazil shown in Fig. 1; bare soil in machinery
traffic areas surrounding irrigation pivots in the south (Fig. 5B); upslope
erosion at the border of a plateau area used for mechanized agriculture
(Fig. 5C); and finally, bare soil mixed with grassland vegetation in fre-
quently burned areas (Fig. 5D).
3.3. Assessment of land degradation in the MATOPIBA region
The spatial distribution of degraded areas is shown in Fig. 6. Approx-
imately 4677 km2 (0.63%) of the land was considered degraded, with
the Piauí and Tocantins states having the highest proportion of 0.80%
and 0.76%, respectively.
Pereira et al. (2018), based on NDVI trend analysis, observed that ap-
proximately 5.8 Mha (65%) of the pasture area in the MATOPIBA region
were likely to be degraded. This estimation is 10 times greater than the
area identified as degraded in the present study. However, as shown in
the Fig. 3 (B) although NDVI trends were a potential indicator of degra-
dation, spectral responses can vary over time due to land history and
vegetation types. Additionally, the region has experienced consecutive
Fig. 6. Land degradation map (2018) for the MATOPIBA region.
8
Science of the Total Environment 782 (2021) 146900
dry years between 2011 and 2016 (Cunha et al., 2019), which were
likely to induce negative NDVI trends. In this context, a recent study
by dos Reis et al. (2020) showed evidence of increasing mean, maxi-
mum, and minimum temperatures, and an increase in the duration of
the dry season concomitant with the delay of the onset of the wet
season between 1980 and 2013. Climate trends toward drier conditions,
from natural or anthropic sources, can also produce negative trends in
NDVI, which might explain why Pereira et al. (2018) estimated a larger
degraded area based solely on NDVI trends. In addition, the authors
mentioned the lack of field points for this region, which made it difficult
to relate negative NDVI slope and pasture degradation. Regardless of the
magnitude of NDVI values, Pereira et al. (2018) found that degraded
pasture areas were associated with a lack of soil conservation manage-
ment strategies, which appear to be the main factor triggering
degradation.
Historically, the MATOPIBA region has suffered from an acceler-
ated deforestation since the 1980s due to unfavorable climate condi-
tions, large areas of flat land converted to facilitate mechanized
agriculture, relatively low land prices, and labor costs (de Barros
and Stege, 2019). By analyzing the transition map between 1985
and 2018 of the MapBiomas Project (Fig. S4) (available at https://
platform.mapbiomas.org/map#transitions), an area of approxi-
mately 122,527 km2 of forest and natural non-forest areas were con-
verted to agriculture. This land use conversion is likely to continue
according to the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, which estimated
an increase in agricultural area of around 13.7% in the region over
the next 10 years, with grain production exceeding 24 million tons
by 2025–2026 (Brasil, 2018).
R.M.S.P. Vieira, J. Tomasella, A.A. Barbosa et al.
Although the land degradation estimated in this study represents
only 0.63% of the MATOPIBA, 59% of degraded areas are over Arenosols
(Fig. 7), which have a weak structure, high erodibility, and need vegeta-
tion cover for their protection (Morgan, 2005). Surprisingly, 25% degra-
dation occurred in areas dominated by Latosols, which are highly stable
aggregated soils, indicating that soil structure was not the only factor
that can explain degradation in the region.
In terms of vegetation type, Fig. 7 shows that 86% (4016 km2) of the
degraded area was located over grasslands (native vegetation) with
predominance of herbaceous stratum, indicating that vegetation type
was a dominant factor for explaining degradation, although vegetation
type was associated with the fertility of soils. In addition, these areas
were anthropized and widely used for grazing and mining activities.
Another factor that intensifies the expansion of land degradation re-
fers to the fact that the intensity and frequency of extreme climatic
events are increasing, and threatens food and water security (dos Reis
et al., 2020; Marengo et al., 2020). Deforestation and intensification of
burning frequency increase the emission of greenhouse gases and aero-
sols, which can intensify the changes already produced by natural cli-
matic variation (Marengo et al., 2011; dos Reis et al., 2020). In this
context, Cunha et al. (2019) observed an increase in severe droughts
in the north-central regions of Brazil, which includes MATOPIBA, veri-
fied in 2014/2015 (period of greatest oscillation), 37.4% of severe
drought, and 26% of moderate drought. Chrysoulakis et al. (2019),
through a temporal series of MODIS images between 2000 and 2015,
observed positive trends for albedo increase for Brazil, mainly in the
Amazon and Cerrado regions, where deforestation rates were high
due to agribusiness expansion.
The climatic trends toward drier conditions detected by dos Reis
et al. (2020) in the study region, in combination with the accelerated
conversion of Cerrado vegetation to pasture, are directly linked to the
increase in severity and frequency of fires because both factors are asso-
ciated with increased flammability. In this context, Fig. 8 shows the geo-
graphical distribution of fires in the study area (details about mapping
of the frequency of fires are provided in item S.2.1 of Supporting Infor-
mation). A visual comparison of the spatial patterns shown in Figs. 6
and 8 indicates that the areas identified as degraded in this study
were affected by repeated burning (at least 15 times during the study
period), suggesting a clear association between degradation and fre-
quency of fires. We also observed that 86% of the areas with high sus-
ceptibility were composed of grassland vegetation. These results were
in line with those by de Carvalho et al. (2017), who found that 75% of
Fig. 7. Distribution of the soil (A) and vegetation (B) types of degraded areas mapped in the present study in the MATOPIBA region.
9
Science of the Total Environment 782 (2021) 146900
areas with higher fire frequency were mainly on savanna and grassland
formations, which were generally associated with Arenosols and
Plinthosols.
Fig. 6 indicates patches of degraded areas in desertification hotspots,
which are priority areas for combating desertification recognized by the
Brazilian government (MMA, 2020), which were identified in previous
studies as areas under severe land degradation/desertification. Factors
such as mining, deforestation, and natural environmental characteris-
tics (topography, climate, and soil) have contributed to the intensifica-
tion of degradation. These results agreed with those of Vieira et al.
(2021) for the semi-arid Northeast of Brazil, which concluded that de-
sertification susceptibility is usually triggered by the replacement of
natural vegetation for pastures and can be further exacerbated by cli-
mate change.
3.4. Limitations
The derivation of the decision tree in this study was based on visual
analysis of degradation. Although expert knowledge is suitable for large
areas with heterogeneous vegetation types and uses, this technique is
generally qualitative, requiring complementary quantitative measures
such as soil analysis for the assessment of the severity of the degrada-
tion. Since there is no standardization of the levels of degradation for
Cerrado, nor on the number and the assessment periods (wet and dry
seasons, and drought and flood years), further studies are needed to
evaluate the relation between visually identified degradation levels
with in-situ quantitative soil and vegetation measurements. Consider-
ing the large variation in species composition (both tree and herba-
ceous), and the high spatial variability of natural fertility within the
Cerrado domain, this will require a comprehensive and widespread
data collection. Since previous studies in Brazil proposed protocols for
planted pasture for livestock production (for instance Monteiro et al.,
2018), this experience can be used at least for Cerrado herbaceous
physiognomies.
The need for a rapid assessment of the area with existent data was
determinant for the use of NDVI-derived indices. Although NDVI is fre-
quently used in the assessment of degradation, previous studies
(Wessels et al., 2004; Wessels et al., 2012) have discussed the limita-
tions of the index in monitoring this process.
Considering the size of the study area, a more intensive field survey
is necessary to reduce uncertainties in the derivation of the decision
tree. Despite the success of the decision tree in predicting such a
R.M.S.P. Vieira, J. Tomasella, A.A. Barbosa et al.
Fig. 8. Annual fire frequency for the period 1985 to 2018 in the MATOPIBA region.
complex process as demonstrated in this study, the empirical nature of
this approach can lead to unrealistic estimates for combinations of indi-
cators outside the range of the dataset used for training the algorithm.
In addition, the use another indicators for assessing degradation
should be explored. For instance, surface temperature, and or drought
indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration
Index (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010) which includes the effects of com-
bined effect if rainfall and temperature and is useful for characterize
the dryness associated with degraded areas.
In view of the limitations of the Kappa coefficient, additional assess-
ments of the accuracy of the algorithm might be necessary, such as the
overall accuracy and per-class accuracy values together with the confu-
sion matrix (Stehman and Foody, 2019).
4. Conclusion
In this study, we assessed the status of soil degradation in the
MATOPIBA region for the year 2018, based on remote sensing data
and machine learning techniques. We demonstrated that the combina-
tion of removal of natural vegetation, inadequate soil management
(generally high frequency of anthropic fires), and the intensification of
the water cycle in the region, have contributed to soil degradation,
mostly over sandy soils, which present low fertility and weak structure.
Considering the land use and land cover changes evaluated in the pres-
ent study, it is possible to conclude that until 2050, the MATOPIBA re-
gion may lose an area of approximately 120,000 km2 of natural
vegetation to anthropogenic use. Because 24% of the study area is
10
Science of the Total Environment 782 (2021) 146900
dominated by Neosols, which are associated with a more fragile
environment as shown in this study, and increased in degraded areas
is expected if actions are not taken. This type of soil, due to its fragility,
requires protective vegetation cover and careful environmentally
friendly management to avoid irreversible levels of degradation. In ad-
dition, we also detected degradation in areas dominated by Latosols,
which are characterized by highly stable aggregates, indicating that
degradation in the region is not restricted to the most fragile environ-
ments and that soil conservation practices are needed in the whole re-
gion. Since climate change scenarios suggest an increase in the
frequency of extreme climate events, the adoption of new agricultural
practices is necessary.
Because field degradation in this study was identified based on vi-
sual analysis without differentiating degradation levels, future studies
should include quantitative and qualitative assessments, including cat-
egorical levels. In addition, it is necessary to explore the availability of
new sensors with higher resolution (such as CBERS 4A, IKONOS, SPOT)
that can potentially improve the assessment of degradation in terms
of accuracy and resolution. Since this study assessed land degradation
of the MATOPIBA region for 2018, future studies should determine if
the processes have accelerated in recent years. To achieve this, it is im-
perative to verify if the algorithm developed in this study is able to make
prediction outside the calibration and validation period with enough
accuracy.
The identification of land degradation areas and drivers can support
the development of public policies for managing agricultural practices,
as well as for identifying priority areas for recovery. Scenarios of climate
R.M.S.P. Vieira, J. Tomasella, A.A. Barbosa et al.
change, land use, and land cover projections will support decision-
making for increasing resilience and promoting the recovery of de-
graded areas.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Vieira, R. M. S. P.: Conceptualization, Methodology, Results Analysis,
General Article Supervision, and Writing - Review and Editing.
Tomasella, J.: Conceptualization, Methodology, General supervision of
article and writing - review and editing. Barbosa, A. A.: Database Survey
and Treatment, Automation of remote sensing and geoprocessing
workflows using Google Earth engine, Preparation and editing
of maps. Polizel, S. P.: Writing - Review and Editing. Ometto,
J. P. H. B.: General supervision of article and writing - review and
editing. Santos, F. C.: Writing - Review and Editing. Ferreira, Y. C.:
Writing - Review and Editing. Toledo, P. M.: Writing - Review and
Editing.
All authors of this article have read and approved the final version
submitted.
No conflict of interest with other people or organizations that could
inappropriately influence or bias the content of the paper.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influ-
ence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful for the support and guidance received during this re-
search project from a number of leaders at the ECOMETRICA and the
Foundation for Science, Technology and Space Applications (FUNCATE)
for the administrative support. This study had support from the Forests
2020 project, part of the UK Space Agency's International Partnership
Programme (IPP), funded by the UK's Global Challenges Research Fund
(GCRF). We are also grateful for the support of FAPESP (Fundação de
Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo) grant 2017/22269-2,
National Academy of Sciences and USAID Sub-Grant Number:
2000006336, and the researchers Camilo Renno and Luis Maurano for
the orientations in the statistical analysis and data validation. Finally,
the second author is also grateful for the support of the National Council
for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq).
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146900.
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