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DEMOCRACY

AT RISK

NOVEMBER 2017

Excerpt of the second issue of the journal Global Challenges, realised


in collaboration with the Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy.
> http://globalchallenges.ch > http://graduateinstitute.ch/democracy
DEMOCRACY AT RISK

DEMOCRACY
AT THE CROSSROADS
Dominic Eggel
Research Office

MEXICO, Mexico
City. A woman walks
by as police officers
I n what has been described as a
“decade of decline” (2006–2016) for
liberal democracy, freedom has been
Deep disenchantment with democracy
is sweeping Eastern and Central Europe
as Hungary and Poland dismantle con-
According to Zakaria, what is funda-
mentally at stake is not democracy but
liberalism. Since liberal democracy for
stand guard during
a farmers’ march in continuously eroding all over the world. stitutional rights and civil liberties. many has come to stand for democracy
Mexico City. More than 20 years after Francis Populist leaders in Western Europe are tout court, it is now seriously challenged
8 August 2017. Fukuyama’s triumphant celebration of calling for similar measures. by the new phenomenon of illiberal
Bernardo MONTOYA/
AFP/Getty Images the “end of history”, it seems that Despite such alarming signs, how- democracies on the ascendency.
liberalism, both economic (free trade) ever, democracy remains perhaps the Illiberal democracies are best char-
and political (pluralism, civil liberties, most successful political idea in modern acterised as regimes elected by a pop-
constitutional safeguards), is in serious history. In 2015, it was the most wide- ular majority but striving to undermine
crisis. In 2015, Turkey ranked last among spread form of government in the world, constitutional safeguards, the rule of
electoral democracies in Freedom with largely “free and fair” electoral law, and civil liberties. Adopting a win-
House’s index. The Arab Spring has processes in place in 125 countries. Even ner-takes-it-all approach (volonté
given way to widespread disillusion and liberal democracy’s detractors such as générale), they discriminate against
violence. In Latin America, several Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Narenda Modi, ethnic, religious and/or sexual minor-
democracies have regressed on the Viktor Orbán, Vladimir Putin, Rodrigo ities in the name of the majority. They
slippery slope towards cronyism (Brazil) Duterte, Beata Szydlo and Donald Trump tend to concentrate power in the exec-
and authoritarianism (Venezuela, have all been elected by majorities and utive in a process of constitutional
Bolivia). Asian democracies are facing praise their own democratic credentials. re-engineering that co-opts or corrodes
trouble too, as illustrated by a regain in Outright autocratic regimes such as the judiciary (Hungary, Poland), the
nationalist rhetoric (Japan), endemic China, Cuba and North Korea call them- legislative (Venezuela), or both (Russia).
corruption (South Korea) and outright selves democracies too. They weaken civil society by reverting
illiberalism (the Philippines). We thus face a paradox: while elec- to a set of “authoritarian best prac-
What is equally a cause for con- toral democracy continues to be tices” including media censorship and
cern is that democracy is on the defen- acclaimed everywhere, a series of indi- state propaganda. They mobilise
sive in its Western heartland. The cators measuring political and civic free- resentment and anxieties by construct-
Economist’s Democracy Index in 2016 dom show it to be in deep trouble. The ing enemies, both external (migrants,
downgraded the United States, the key to this paradox may well reside in the European Union) and internal
beacon of democracy for much of the the notion of “illiberal democracy”, first (NGOs, human rights activists). Political
modern era, to a “flawed democracy”. coined by Fareed Zakaria in 1997. opponents are intimidated, publicly

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vilified (“lock-her-upism”) or subjected legitimisation (referenda, plebiscites), social media revolution, coupled with
to repression by the arbitrary applica- while striving to maintain an illusion of postmodern epistemic uncertainty, has
tion of purposefully vague laws – often pluralism. ushered a new era of “post-truth poli-
antiterrorism legislation. The final step A number of potential causes may tics” with little space for rational dia-
in consolidating illiberal democracies be identified behind the recent surge logue. Fourth, as the United States
retreats from its traditional role of global
harbinger of democracy, rivals like China
and Russia have been quick to put forth
“While electoral alternative models deemed more com-
petitive, or morally righteous. Fifth, and
democracy continues finally, since its emergence in the Age
of Enlighten­ment, liberalism (freedom)
to be acclaimed has entertained a complex and ten-
sion-riddled relationship with democ-
everywhere, a series of racy (equality). Liberal democracy, as
the 20th century has shown, is an utterly
indicators measuring fragile construct.
The question remains how illiberal
political and civic democracies are likely to evolve in the
21st century. Will they stabilise and
freedom show it to be become a permanent fixture of geopol-
itics? Or, on the contrary, will liberal
in deep trouble.” democracy prove resilient and keep the
upper hand?
To answer these questions, the
consists in emasculating the electoral of illiberal democracies. First, younger present dossier investigates seven case
process: not by rigging elections – generations show signs of historical studies from around the world, starting
which usually remain free and fair – amnesia as they are no longer cognisant from the premise that illiberal democ-
but by loading the dice long in advance. of the totalitarian horrors of the 20th racy is best represented on a continuum
In marked contrast to more full- century. Second, a generalised senti- ranging from first worrying signs as in
blown authoritarian regimes, however, ment of insecurity and occupational Trump’s America to more advanced
illiberal democracies do not yearn for angst in a fast-changing world has authoritarian regimes as in Putin’s
the total control of society. Selectively estranged people from the political Russia – with many shades and nuances
repressive, they seek regular popular elites in their own societies. Third, the in between.

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DEMOCRACY AT RISK

RUSSIA: HAUNTING
WESTERN DEMOCRATIC
IMAGINATION
Ivan Krastev
Visiting Lecturer
Permanent Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences, Vienna
Chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, Sofia

I f a Martian were sent to earth with


the secret mission to figure out the
trends of world politics, he would cer-
The answer can be found in
Dostoevsky’s novel The Double, the
story of a low-level clerk who ends up
from the past, now it looks like an
ambassador coming from the future.
Russia is a classic example of a
tainly be puzzled by the outsized role in the madhouse after meeting his dou- non-democracy functioning inside the
that Putin’s Russia plays in the 21st ble, a man who looks like him, talks like institutional framework of democracy.
century imagination of the West. him, but who displays all the charm It is a regime in which periodic pseu-
Almost half of the Americans tend to and self-confidence that the tortured do-competitive elections are instru-
believe that Moscow rigged the 2016 protagonist profoundly lacks. When it ments for dis-empowering, not empow-
US presidential election; many comes to Russia, the West feels like ering, citizens and the electorate’s
Europeans suspect that the Kremlin Dostoevsky’s protagonist in the pres- voice is not heard. Could it be that
shapes public opinion in their countries; ence of his double. However, while in competitive elections in the West –
and some of the leading Western media Dostoevsky’s novel the double looks shaped by the manipulative power of
outlets insist that Russia’s President like a person that the protagonist money, disfigured by growing political
Vladimir Putin is the world’s most influ-
ential political leader. While in the
beginning of this century Russia was
viewed as a mixture of failure and
banality, today in the minds of many it
has mutated into the model of the world
“Russia is a classic
to come.
Frankly speaking, neither Russia’s
example of a
brutal annexation of Crimea, nor its mil-
itary involvement in Syria or aggressive
non-democracy
meddling in American elections could
sufficiently explain the obsession of the
functioning inside
West with Russia. Russia suffers from
low European-level birth rates and
the institutional
almost African-level life expectancy. Its
population has one of the highest per-
framework
centages of university-educated people,
but with the lowest labour productivity
of democracy.”
per hour worked in the industrialised
world. The country is profoundly corrupt
and though President Putin is a strong
leader, the prospects of Russia’s devel- always wanted to be, for the West polarisation and emptied of meaning
opment after him are highly uncertain. Russia has become the double the West by a lack of genuine political alterna-
So why then is the Western political fears it could become. While some tives – resemble Kremlin-engineered
imagination so obsessed and preoccu- years ago Russia was perceived by the elections more than we like to think?
pied by Russia? Western public as a shadow coming Could it be that the global spread of

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RUSSIA, Tuva. democracy signals not the liberation or capacity for rationally guided coop- pattern of repression and exploitation
Russian President of the masses but the liberation of erative action, of increasingly frag- characteristic of most illiberal and
Vladimir Putin (left),
accompanied by elites from the electorate? mented state institutions worldwide. undemocratic societies in the past.
defence minister Moreover, Russia provides the most Significantly, the Russian experi- Russia is a classic case of how a
Sergei Shoigu, radical example of the feudalisation ence also sheds light on the global handful of very rich and politically unac-
guides a boat during and the incoherence of the state in the phenomenon of “superfluous people” countable self-enriching rulers have,
his vacation in the
remote Tuva region age of globalisation. Inside Russia’s produced by a worldwide movement despite internal rivalries, managed to
in southern Siberia. deep state, different departments or for the liberation of the rich. Russia is stay atop the country’s fragmented soci-
Between 1 and 3 agencies – the ministries, the police, an impressive example of the global ety without resorting to historically high
August 2017.
Alexey NIKOLSKY/
the prosecutors, and so forth – may trend toward growing economic ine- levels of violence. This political model,
AFP/Getty Images seem irresistibly dominant to ordinary quality in the 21st century. But at the neither democratic nor authoritarian,
citizens but they spend much of their same time Putin’s Russia is, in a sense, neither exploitative in the Marxist sense
time fighting each other, often over the a socialist utopia: only nature is nor repressive in the liberal sense, is an
control of liquid assets, and face no exploited! Russia’s ruling class did not image of the future that should keep us
real incentive to cooperate. Such a enrich itself by exploiting labour but awake at night.
loose-knit and conflict-ridden state can by privatising the public patrimony, In short, what causes anxiety in the
neither impose itself consistently on especially the country’s hydrocarbon liberal West is not that Russia will run
society nor respond intelligently to industry. Ordinary Russians do not even the world, but that much of the world
social pressures and demands. What seem to them to be worth exploiting. will be run the way Russia is run today.
disturbs Western observers is that Rather than trying to dominate or con- What is disturbing is that the West has
while reasons for the growing incoher- trol their fellow citizens, the privileged started to resemble Putin’s Russia more
ence of Western states do not neces- few have simply turned their backs on than we are ready to acknowledge.
sarily resemble the factors shaping the them. This strikingly new Russian pat-
Russian case, the trend is similar. The tern of spoliation and neglect tells us
loss of a shared national purpose rad- much more about what is going wrong
ically undermines the interoperability, in the West today than does the older

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DEMOCRACY AT RISK

THE UNITED STATES


AND THE TRAJECTORY
OF DEMOCRACY
David Sylvan
Professor of International Relations/Political Science
Faculty member, Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy

A lmost 200 years ago, Alexis de


Tocqueville published De la
démocratie en Amérique, putting the
what Louis Hartz called a “new society”,
one without an hereditary aristocracy,
with vast fertile lands only thinly settled
20th century, other factors were added:
economic and military power, language,
universities, popular culture, and the
intellectual seal of approval on the idea by peoples who could easily be swept sheer omnipresence of the mass media.
of US-style democracy as a model for aside, and with oceans and distracted These in turn led to a sort of path
other parts of the world. Tocqueville’s great powers protecting it from inva- dependence, in which elites in other
analysis went far beyond formal insti- sion, was mostly elided by those who countries acquired the habit of looking
tutions and laws to the normative drew inspiration from the democratic to the United States for ideas about
underpinnings of participation, equal- norms they saw flourishing in the United participation and transparency, not to
ity, and voluntary association. Arguably, States. Indeed, even the most scathing mention the details of certain types of
it is these norms which, in spite of the political critics of the United States legislation, administrative arrangements
numerous evils in American history – found themselves having at least to within organisations, the setting up of
from slavery and the destruction of the quote, perhaps to finesse, or, horrors, advisory bodies, and, of course, many
other facets of US society unrelated to
democratic norms. The fact that many

“The United States


of those elites in other countries had
themselves been educated in the United

was a democratic
States, understood English, and had
grown up consuming US popular cul-

inspiration also
ture, further reinforced this habit. Thus,
even if many US political ideas, such as

because of its protest


its 18th-century constitution or its insist-
ence on first-past-the-post voting rules,

movements.”
were no longer imitated, the habit of
looking to the United States, perhaps
copying certain of its practices, but in
any case using those practices as an
argument for certain policies, remained
indigenous population to plutocracy, to adopt outright, features of what they alive and well. Not even the presidency
support for foreign dictators, and the imagined to be American democracy. of George W. Bush, with its hanging
tyranny of the majority mentioned by From attempts at extending the fran- chads, invasion of Iraq, and heartbreak-
Tocqueville himself – served as a cyno- chise through to legislation modeled on ing incompetence on Hurricane Katrina,
sure for people and countries around the Freedom of Information Act, US could stamp out that habit: numerous
the world. democratic norms continued to serve US expatriates can attest to being con-
The normative power of US democ- as a model. gratulated by complete strangers after
racy was that it was an ideal which, At first, this influence stemmed from the election of Barack Obama in 2009.
somehow, had been concretised. That the obvious contrast between the US One would like to imagine that this
this had occurred in the situation of experience and that of Europe. In the changed after Trump assumed the

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ARIZONA, presidency in 2017. To some degree it because of its constitution, its relatively in other countries. As one South African
Phoenix, USA. did, as elites lowered their expectations broad electorate, its legislative arrange- campaigner put it, “When the sit-ins
President Donald
Trump speaks at for US policy and focused instead on ments, or its free press, but also because started in the USA, I felt I was there.
a “Make America short-term coordination with their of its protest movements. The story of We read the news eagerly and identi-
Great Again” rally. American counterparts. But this is to Gandhi being inspired by Thoreau’s fied unconditionally with those who
22 August 2017. ignore the enormous boost that Trump’s essay on civil disobedience is well- were demanding their basic rights.”
Nicholas KAMM/
AFP/Getty Images talking points, and the aides he known, but this is only the tip of the Thus, the jury is still out on whether
appointed, gave to xenophobic and American iceberg. For example, trade or not the United States, under Trump,
authoritarian forces around the world. union struggles (which resulted, among will become an antidemocratic model.
It is no accident that European advo- other things, in the choice of 1 May as In the end, what matters is not so much
cates of immigration restrictions and International Workers’ Day), antiwar what Trump does as what his fellow
crackdowns on the press, the judiciary, protests, and the multiple strands of citizens do in response.
and dissenting voices lauded Trump, protests for civil rights (most famously
even before election night; by the same the Civil Rights Movement against racial
token, there is clear mutual admiration injustices) each had a marked influence
between Trump and various autocratic on analogous activities in numerous
leaders. In effect, the United States is countries. The point is not that protest
still a model, albeit an antidemocratic movements in the United States served
one. as models elsewhere: some did, but in
This, however, is not the end of the other cases, influence ran in the other
story, or even of the current episode. direction. Rather, the fact that protests
We would do well to recall that the did occur in the United States, in the
United States was a democratic inspi- face of well-known antidemocratic bar-
ration not only, or even primarily, riers, was itself significant to activists

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DEMOCRACY AT RISK

TURQUIE :
LE VIRAGE AUTORITAIRE
D’ERDOĞAN
Jean-François Bayart
Professeur et titulaire de la chaire Yves Oltramare Religion et politique dans le monde contemporain
Membre du corps professoral, Centre Albert Hirschman sur la démocratie

TURQUIE, Ankara.
Des manifestants
brandissent des
S ouvent avec une joie mauvaise,
constat est fait du retour de la
Turquie à ses vieux démons autori-
ensuivi un glissement autoritaire du
pouvoir, de plus en plus personnel, du
président turc. Celui-ci, en quelques
pouvait se targuer du soutien du
corps électoral. Mais il perdit alors la
majorité absolue des sièges, et se
drapeaux turcs sur la
place Kizilay lors d’un taires. Et l’Europe d’éprouver un lâche années, a brisé l’échine politique de lança dans une périlleuse fuite en
rassemblement contre soulagement de se voir enfin débar- l’armée, des médias, de son alliée la avant. Il manœuvra, au prix d’une
le coup d’État manqué rassée de la venimeuse question de néoconfrérie de Fethullah Gülen, de la reprise de la guerre civile dans le
du 15 juillet. 10 août
2016. Adem ALTAN/ son élargissement à l’Anatolie. représentation parlementaire des Sud-Est, pour obtenir la convocation
AFP/Getty Images Car la Turquie de Recep Tayyip régionalistes (ou nationalistes) kurdes, de nouvelles élections, en novembre,
Erdoğan a rejoint le camp des « démo- de l’opposition civile, libérale et écolo- et les gagner. Après la tentative de
craties illibérales » dès lors que l’élec- gique qui s’était manifestée dans l’en- coup d’État de juillet 2016, il perdit
tion de Nicolas Sarkozy à la présidence semble du pays en 2013. Ahmet Insel toute limite. Il se fit tailler une
de la République française, en 2007, a a été le premier à parler alors de la Constitution présidentialiste à sa
rendu illusoire toute perspective « poutinisation », ou de l’« orbanisa- démesure. Le Parti de la justice et du
d’adhésion à l’Union européenne. Face tion », de Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. développement (AKP) est à sa botte.
à Ankara, Bruxelles n’avait plus de Jusqu’aux élections législatives La liberté de la presse a été de facto
moyen : ni carotte, ni bâton. Il s’est de juin 2015, le président Erdoğan abolie. Les législatives de novembre

8
2015 et le référendum constitutionnel Guerre froide, elle préfère au fond les annihiler toute forme d’opposition
d’avril 2017 se sont déroulés dans un certitudes de l’autoritarisme aux évoque les grandes purges qui avaient
climat d’intimidation policière et judi- aléas de la démocratie pour confier à suivi la révolte de Cheikh Saïd, en
ciaire. Fait peut-être unique depuis la Turquie le sale travail : jadis, la lutte 1925. Son répertoire est celui du
1950, ils ont été entachés de soup- contre le communisme, aujourd’hui, nationalisme, ou plutôt du national-
çons de fraude. Des purges de masse l’endiguement des migrants. Le PKK libéralisme qui entend assurer le
balayent la police, l’armée, la magis- n’a pas plus joué la carte libérale, contrôle politique du néolibéralisme,
trature, l’université, l’ensemble de la balançant entre le recours aux armes comme en Chine ou en Russie, en
fonction publique et les partis et la négociation des petits arrange- Hongrie ou en Pologne. Ce à quoi
d’opposition. ments autoritaires avec Erdoğan. La nous assistons, c’est à la résurgence
Le retour de flamme autoritaire réaction des autres partis d’opposi- d’une situation autoritaire dont les
est d’autant plus impressionnant que tion a été inepte et en porte-à-faux origines remontent à l’absolutisme
le bilan démocratique d’Erdoğan, les avec la nouvelle Turquie, née de dix d’Adbul Hamid II, au Comité Union et
cinq premières années de son exer-
cice du pouvoir, n’est pas négli-
geable. Aucun dirigeant turc n’était
allé aussi loin dans la reconnais-
sance, culturelle et politique, du fait
kurde, et n’avait osé ouvrir des négo-
“L’erreur serait
ciations avec le Parti des travailleurs
du Kurdistan (PKK). Aucun autre
d’imputer à l’islam
n’avait aussi nettement remis en
cause la conception ethnoconfes-
la responsabilité
sionnelle de la citoyenneté. Enfin, son
accession au pouvoir symbolisait une
de la restauration
alternance au profit des « Turcs
noirs », que les « Turcs blancs »
autoritaire.”
laïcistes avaient marginalisés depuis
les années 1920, en même temps
qu’elle abrogeait l’ordre constitution-
nel contraignant hérité du coup ans de pouvoir AKP, mais aussi de Progrès, au parti unique de l’entre-
d’État militaire de 1980. profondes transformations écono- deux-guerres, aux régimes militaires
Comment expliquer ce retourne- miques et sociales. Enfin, le piège de des années 1960-1980.
ment ? Seuls les adeptes de la « tran- la guerre d’Irak et de Syrie s’est Ces précédents historiques
sitologie » peuvent s’en étonner. La refermé sur Ankara, et a dramatisé la dénotent aussi, paradoxalement, l’en-
formation de la démocratie n’a jamais question kurde. racinement de l’idée démocratique en
été linéaire. La thèse de l’agenda anti- L’erreur serait d’imputer à l’islam Turquie. L’exercice du suffrage univer-
démocratique caché, qu’aurait de tout la responsabilité de la restauration sel l’a régulièrement réhabilitée. De
temps caressé le président, ne résiste autoritaire en Turquie. Même si ce point de vue, les résultats du
pas à l’examen. Quelles qu’aient été Erdoğan puise dans les ressources du dernier référendum ont été sans
ses intentions secrètes, le vrai conservatisme musulman pour étayer appel : malgré le matraquage de la
problème est celui du rapport de force sa légitimité, il recourt surtout aux propagande de l’AKP, le non l’a
qui s’est noué entre les tenants de vieilles recettes du régime kémaliste. emporté dans les grandes villes qui lui
l’autoritarisme et ceux de la démocra- Son conflit avec les fethullahci montre étaient jadis acquises, y compris à
tie. Or, l’Europe s’est gardée d’ap- qu’il impose lui aussi la primauté de Istanbul, le fief de Recep Tayyip
puyer les seconds, tout en versant des l’État sur le pluralisme religieux. Son Erdoğan depuis les années 1990.
larmes de crocodile sur la lenteur des instrumentalisation de la tentative de
« réformes ». Comme à l’époque de la putsch et de la dissidence kurde pour

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DEMOCRACY AT RISK

ORBÁN’S LAWFARE
AGAINST LIBERAL
DEMOCRACY IN HUNGARY
Shalini Randeria
Professor of Anthropology and Sociology
Director of the Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy

H eineken beer, the Helsinki


Committee and the Central
European University in Budapest have
tracts of EU-subsidised agricultural
land redistributed to party function-
aries. Policies, which initiated a mas-
A new law assaulting academic
freedom, passed in unseemly haste in
April 2017, threatens the very existence
recently all been the object of the sive recentralisation of economic and of the Central European University
Hungarian government’s unfavourable political power, were devised to ben- (CEU), whose professors were called
attention. It tried to ban the beer on efit domestic businesses with close “officers of an occupying army” by for-
the pretext that the red star on the can ties to the ruling Fidesz Party. The sys- mer Fidesz Minister Péter Harrach. The
was a totalitarian symbol, to restrict tematic subversion of checks and bal- discriminatory law targeting the CEU
the workings of the well-known NGO, ances followed a careful design of is of a piece with the systematic ero-
and passed a new law designed to “lawfare”, i.e. legislation passed in ad sion of the autonomy of all universities
close the renowned private university, hoc fashion without public scrutiny or in the country. Hungary has seen state
whose fate still hangs in balance. proper legislative deliberation. First, expenditure on higher education sys-
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán a new constitution was enacted that tematically decline since 2010, with a
embodies the reactionary populist pol- weakened all checks on majoritarian- reduction of 25% between 2010 and
itics gaining ground in many parts of ism. Next, the system for nominating 2013. Large funding cuts at all
the world. In a well-publicised speech judges to the Constitutional Court was Hungarian state universities have
in 2014 he had declared with pride altered to subvert the independence paved the way for the installation of
that his country was an “illiberal state”, of the judiciary. Then, the electoral government-nominated “chancellors”
and asserted later that the Trump rev- framework was changed to make it tasked with making managerial deci-
olution happened in Hungary, the impossible for any other party to win. sions but de facto determining aca-
country that led the global backlash The National Election Commission was demic appointments. The result is an
against liberalism. Extolling the virtues brought under Fidesz control to curb alarming decline in student enrolment,
of the nation, church and family, Orbán civil society referenda. Further, by which fell by 24% between 2010 and
has positioned himself as the defender appointing only high party officials to 2014 and a staggering 45% in 2016
of Christian Europe against hordes of the office of the President, Orbán alone.
Muslim migrants. With Orbán taking ensured that presidential powers Orbán’s government has embarked
a leaf out of Putin’s authoritarian book, would not be used to block govern- on a programme of nationalising sci-
and Poland currently modelling itself mental initiatives. Finally, new laws ence, founding, notably, the National
on Hungary, one may well ask if illib- were enacted to guarantee political University of Public Service, a training
eral democracies are there to stay in control of all media through a regula- ground for the new cadres of the
Central Europe. tory agency exclusively manned by regime. The governor of the Hungarian
Between 2010 and 2013 the gov- party loyalists. At their own peril can National Bank has, tellingly, utilised
ernment led by Orbán enacted some the European Union (EU) and European the bank’s resources to establish a new
700 laws that rolled back economic People’s Party (EPP) continue to turn economics university in his hometown,
liberalisation: property rights were a blind eye to this transformation of whose curriculum includes his own
selectively whittled away and vast the “rule of law” into “rule by law”. theories. With channels of social

10
“Between 2010 and 2013
mobility within the country blocked, the government led by Orbán
enacted some 700 laws
600,000 of the better educated have
exited in the past four years. Their voice

that rolled back economic


is now missing from domestic politics.
Emigration can thus become an avenue

liberalisation.”
to eliminate unwelcome critics. But
liberal democracy cannot survive in the
absence of free public debate and
spaces of dissent, which autonomous
universities provide. It needs strong,
financially independent counter-ma-
joritarian institutions, which advocate modernisation theory, and its reincar- EPP continue to tolerate with impunity HUNGARY, Buda
diverse, even unpopular, positions. The nation, the postcommunist transition Viktor Orbán’s undermining of separa- Hill. Locals take an
oath in front of a
70,000 demonstrators marching paradigm, would have us believe. Nor tion of powers, erosion of civil and polit- national flag of the
through Budapest last April, chanting is democracy inevitably coupled with ical liberties, transforming Hungary into 1956 revolution (the
“Free country, free university” in sup- liberalism. The EU may be in no position a “mafia state” – a term coined by the tricolor with a hole)
port of the CEU, clearly recognised this, to influence the course of illiberal, former Hungarian Minister of Education during an induction
ceremony of the far-
while the state television ignored them, majoritarian, elected regimes in Russia, Bálint Magyar. Reactionary ideologies right Jobbik party.
broadcasting instead a programme India, Venezuela, or the United States. and authoritarian rule often take root 25 August 2007.
praising fishing in Hungary. But whether illiberal democracies take as much due to their popular appeal as Attila KISBENEDEK/
AFP/Getty Images
Democratisation is evidently not root in Europe will depend in large to the opportunism and hypocrisy of
the linear, teleological process that measure on whether the EU and the their liberal opponents.

11
DEMOCRACY AT RISK

REINVENTING
AUTHORITARIANISM
IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou
Professor of International History
Faculty member, Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy

T he 2011 Arab Spring uprisings in


the Middle East and North Africa
thickened the authoritarianism plot.
democracies”, which should have
given cause for caution.
When between 2012 and 2017 the
Instead they revised the narrative to
represent themselves as the promot-
ers of the “real” change needed in
Since democratising change appeared revolts in the Middle East and North these societies. Nowhere was this
at long last to be making headway Africa turned, for the most part, into better exemplified than in Egypt where
across the region, initial forecasts violent civil wars in Libya, Yemen and Abdelfattah al Sisi forcibly replaced
seesawed between hopes for sus- Syria and the expected changes failed Mohamed Morsi as president, while
tained transitions and doubts about to materialise, culturalist explanations criminalising him and his supporters
their viability. Often either unrealistic, proliferated, arguing that the region and conjuring up the image of a “new
impatient expectations, or fatalistic was “unprepared” for democracy. Side- Nasser”. Similarly, in Syria, Bashar al
and deterministic pessimism, such stepping the encouraging signs in Assad – amidst the widespread mur-
prognoses were nonetheless logical Tunisia and in Morocco, these inter- derous repression of his opponents
analytical outgrowths of observation pretations missed the key transforma- and a large-scale civil war – contin-
of post-authoritarian systems. In ear- tion that the post–Arab Spring had ued to claim to be the candidate for
lier cycles, or so-called “waves” of yielded, namely an authoritarianism “a new democratic Syria”. In Turkey,
democratisation, the push towards redux, albeit one that was not only reacting both to the continuing Gezi
representative systems was under- novel and hybrid but also internation- Park– and Taksim Square–centred
stood to be a linear process. ally connected. The new-old authori- protests since May 2013 and a failed
While emphasising the complex- tarian regimes of the Middle East military coup attempt in July 2016,
ity of the transition process and its reasserted themselves in at least three Recep Tayyip Erdoğan jeopardised the
inherent pitfalls, these assumptions innovative ways: (1) by appearing to country’s decade-long promising polit-
and predictions still functioned on a embody change while crushing it; (2) ical transition heralded as a model in
generic logic of a forward movement. by securing international support for, the region.
In South-Western Europe in the 1960s, or tolerance of, their campaigns, and This unapologetic rebranding of
in Latin America in the 1970s and in (3) by, more insidiously, sowing doubts authoritarianism in the Middle East
Eastern Europe in the 1980s and amongst their populations about the was, secondly and more importantly,
1990s, the sequence had been thus need for, and value of, democracy. engineered through a message sent to
– illustrated by push-and-pull contests Firstly, unable to halt the rebel- Western governments and societies
and resistance but within an overall lions, the regimes in Egypt, Syria, that support or tolerate the repressive
drive for transformation. Doubts about Yemen and across the Gulf gave the actions of these hybrid regimes as key
the paradigm were already being axiom “If you can’t beat them, join to regional stability and the “security”
expressed in the early 2000s, reveal- them” new meaning. They, however, of the West. As in the mid-2010s intol-
ing a proliferation of “uncertain neither adopted the values of the erance, racism and societal divisions
regimes”, “semi-democratic regimes”, democratisers nor co-opted them – as spread across Europe and the United
“competitive authoritarianism”, they had done in the earlier 1990s States, Western governments pro-
“façade democracy” and “illiberal cosmetic democratisation phase. posed more militaristic foreign policies

12
EGYPT, Cairo. and asserted support to authoritarian development was reached when the late 2010s an “empire-strikes-back”
Thousands Middle Eastern regimes in a notable current US Secretary of State Rex disposition questioning in a deeper and
of Egyptians
demonstrate in
departure from their earlier defensive- Tillerson stated in May 2017 that more problematic fashion the very pur-
Tahrir Square to ness. A newfound resoluteness and human rights values would now take suit of democracy. The shared senti-
denounce violence ment that “revolutions only bring
against protesters, trouble” and that “democracy is prob-
especially women.

“By sowing doubt


23 December lematic” – now voiced by conserva-
2011. Citizenside/ tives, now silently tolerated by former
WAHEDMASRY
as to the value of
militants – spread slowly but surely
across these societies. Thus expanded

democracy, the region’s


the repertoire of authoritarianism.
What a difference six years made!

authoritarian regimes
Whereas in the spring of 2011, the dom-
inant regional and international feeling

benefitted from their


had been one of “never again” should
the Mubarak’s style of rule see the

ability to bounce back


light of day, by the spring of 2017 a
form of demand for strict authoritarian

and be repressively
rule seemed to have crystallised as
societies in the Middle East were now

creative.”
torn between their dissatisfaction with
the current regimes and their anxieties
of chaos and instability. By success-
fully sowing doubt as to the value of
democracy, the region’s authoritarian
assertiveness therefore emboldened a back seat compared to economic regimes certainly benefitted from their
these authoritarian regimes, whose interests or national security. ability to bounce back and be repres-
bedrock remained, however, the con- Finally, and even more problemat- sively creative. But they were also par-
tradictions and hypocrisies in Western ically, many Middle Eastern authori- taking of a wider global moment of
policies. A high (or low) point of this tarian regimes began to adopt in the neo-authoritarianism.

13
DEMOCRACY AT RISK

UGANDA: MANAGING
DEMOCRACY THROUGH
INSTITUTIONALISED
UNCERTAINTY
Rebecca Tapscott
Research Fellow, Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy

UGANDA, Kisoro.
Facade with poster
of President Yoweri
I n 2016, thirty years after he violently
seized power, Uganda’s President
Yoweri Museveni was reelected to his
structural adjustment policies. Inter-
national donors swiftly labelled Ugan-
da a “donor darling” on its way to dem-
state power and fragmented subna-
tional power bases. The regime has
used protracted civil unrest to justify
Museveni.
23 July 2012. fifth term. In 1986, Museveni had ocratic transition. Recent assessments uneven development and a militarised
By Adam JONES/ become president of a country of the regime are less optimistic. It is state. Today, Uganda resembles other
CC BY-SA 3.0 economically and socially devastated now seen as a hegemonic party-state seemingly fragile African states with
from years of autocratic rule by strong- that relies increasingly on patronage long-lasting regimes like Angola, Eri-
men rulers Idi Amin and Milton Obote. and violent coercion. Scholars have trea and Zimbabwe.
Museveni made some early reforms, catalogued how decentralisation Such cases present a paradox. How
implementing decentralisation and policies have actually recentralised can state fragility, a system of elec-

14
toral governance, and autocratic rule preventers as ordinary community giving wide berth to issues they think
co­exist sustainably? An examination of members, powerless except to report are sensitive. Pervasive uncertainty
how citizens experience Uganda’s illib- crime like any other citizen. Constant also erodes trust between constitu-
eral regime is revealing. Unsurprisingly, vacillations between promises made ents and authorities. Citizens are cog-
the regime restricts civil liberties and and broken, authority claimed and nisant of the fact that politicians also
maintains distributive systems that denied, contributed to uncertainty face harsh sanctions for challenging
offer overwhelming structural advan- in interactions between citizens and the regime’s interests. Politicians who
tage for the ruling regime. How­ever, crime preventers, and between crime survive this system are thus assumed
it also governs by instrumentalising preventers and state authorities. to be complicit in the regime, making
uncertainty. Uncertainty is produced The government’s ability to continu- citizens suspicious of those who claim
via arbitrary government use of au- ally redefine the role of crime preven- to act in good faith. Unsubstantiated
thority backed by a threat of violence. ters was made possible by a widely rumours further fuel this scepticism:
As a result, it infuses citizens’ percep- held perception that the ruling regime tales of state-organised assassina-
tions of the state – particularly state retained access to overwhelming force tions circulate when public figures die
security actors but also politicians and – a perception reinforced through unexpectedly; allegations of bribery
government officials. citizens’ memories of state-sponsored proliferate when politicians support
the ruling party. However, producing
suspicion without evidence allows
politicians to maintain the possibility
– however slight – that they could act

“Institutionalised in their constituents’ interests. In turn,


this keeps many citizens marginally en-

arbitrariness helps gaged with the democratic process.


I have termed this strategy of

explain how states rule “institutionalised arbitrariness”.


Institutionalised arbitrariness helps

maintain ‘hybridity’ explain how states maintain “hy-


bridity” or “illiberal democracy” as

or ‘illiberal democracy’ the status quo. The arbitrary use of


harsh discipline means that the state

as the status quo.” can permit occasional expressions


of liberal politics such as democrat-
ic elections, universal suffrage, civil
society, free association and a free
press. It is thus difficult for citizens and
international observers to decisively
Take the experience of Uganda’s violence. The ruling regime and its mil- categorise the regime as oppressive
“crime preventers”. So-called crime itary have fought civil insurgencies and autocratic.
preventers are mainly underemployed since taking power, often sacrificing The functioning of a democracy
young men, recruited en masse be- civilian life in the process. Sporadic is premised on the ability of citizens
fore the 2016 elections with prom- and unpredictable state violence in and their representatives to develop
ises of access to government loans everyday life further buttresses this meaningful and reliable expectations
and employment in the police force. perception. For example, the police of each other. However, in environ-
Their mandate was vaguely defined. often use teargas and live or rub- ments marked by high uncertainty, ar-
Politicians on both sides of the aisle ber bullets to disperse rallies. More bitrary assertions and denials of state
stoked fears that crime preventers mundane instances of state coercion authority disrupt feedback loops and
would use violence to intimidate op- include security sweeps rife with fragment citizen organisation. Under
position voters and candidates, and intimidation and extortion. such circumstances, citizens cannot
facilitate vote manipulation. However, The perception that the state could develop meaningful expectations, nor
the reality appeared more mundane. intervene anytime and deploy over- can they demand regime accountabil-
At times, crime preventers assisted whelming force produces a particu- ity. Thus, “illiberal democracies” can
the police in arresting and detaining lar type of subject, namely, one that produce uncertainty and contingency
civilians. At other times, the police and is comparatively subdued and risk to manipulate formally liberal govern-
government officials sidelined crime averse. Ordinary citizens self-police, ance for the pursuit of illiberal ends.

15
DEMOCRACY AT RISK

POST-TRUTH POPULISM
IN VENEZUELA
Rafael Sánchez
Senior Lecturer in Anthropology and Sociology
Faculty member, Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy

VENEZUELA, Caracas.
Volunteer rescuers
step aside to take
I lliberal democracy is democracy
minus constitutional liberalism.
According to Fareed Zakaria, without
renders all state branches into
adjuncts of the ruler, Venezuela’s
Chavist regime seems to be a good
developments in Venezuela, however,
would suggest otherwise. In my view
Chavism’s significance and dynamism
cover as riot police
motorcyclists charge liberalism’s checks and balances example of an illiberal democracy. have less to do with democracy, under-
on opposition activists democracy lends itself to the kind of I would, nonetheless, raise the follow- stood as majority rule, than with
protesting against the “people-making” based on ethnic, ing question: Does Chavism have any factors that such an understanding
newly inaugurated
Constituent Assembly. class, racial or religious majorities, a unique features? Following the stand- occludes. Despite having lost its elec-
4 August 2017. feature that is intrinsic to the authori- ard argument on “illiberal democracy” toral edge Chavism has recently
Ronaldo SCHEMIDT/ tarian populisms or “illiberal democra- the answer would be negative as become even more authoritarian and
AFP/Getty Images
cies” proliferating everywhere. Chavism would simply offer yet repressive but without drawing (other
Characterised by plebiscitary rule and another cautionary tale about democ- than fraudulently) on a majority that it
an expansion of the executive that racy without liberalism. Recent no longer possesses.

16
“While the opposition
controls ever more
ineffective sites
of democratic
The following suggestions may fur-
ther our understanding of this situation. expression, the regime
The collapse of representative
democracy and of the nation’s rep- ‘democratically’ holds
resentative institutions instigated
by a neoliberal structural adjustment the firepower.”
programme in the 1980s explains
Venezuelan Chavism better than the
mere question of democracy. Though
it initially came to power following a
democratic implosion, the trajectory peals to the “people” functioned as the placing the army, which is now sub-
of Chavism since is only intelligible as political means to vertically restore a jected to minute forms of intelligence
part of the breakdown of political rep- fantasised lost unity, sustaining such monitored by Cuban agents, in control
resentation that is an endemic, even fantasy is increasingly untenable both of the nation’s food distribution and
postliberal, condition currently affect- ideologically and institutionally now vast mineral wealth.
ing not just Venezuela but the world. that the political is horizontally beset Meanwhile invocations of “democ-
This breakdown has two critical ef- by an increasingly divided, differenti- racy” and “the people” continue but
fects: firstly, it reveals a crowd sociali- ating society. mean what the regime wants them
ty hitherto enclosed within social and Under these no longer totalising cir- to mean, irrespective of any numeri-
political institutions and, with it, the cumstances, appeals to the “people” cal majorities. The recent top-down
emergence of bodily affect as a crucial function according to an unabashedly decision to set up a “Constituent
political and social crucible. Secondly, “tribal” logic aimed at erecting a war Assembly” capable of bypassing the
in such a situation, there is a grow- machine centred on affect and the opposition-controlled parliament
ing inability of any representative in- body. It operates on an ever more frag- is the latest in the regime’s Hump-
stance to occupy the place of the uni- mented social terrain, which it does ty Dumpty politics. Yet this is not a
versal, and, from there, represent the not seek to totalise but to control and case of an “illiberal democracy” if by
whole of society to the state. Under dominate. In what in the current cli- that one means a well-consolidated,
these conditions infectious affective mate of post-truth politics amounts to semitotalitarian regime. A more likely
contagion spreads. This amounts to a a Humpty Dumpty effect in the sense scenario, I fear, is: an intensification of
preeminence of the horizontal over the that a word “means just what I choose the prevailing civic strife, corruption,
vertical as the axis along which forms it to mean”, the word “people” can violence, narcotrafficking and chaos.
of personal and social experience and simply refer to “my people”, however While the opposition controls ever
relations are formed, unformed and the ruler chooses to define them. “My more ineffective sites of democratic
transformed. people” are then those always ready expression, the regime “democratical-
Confronted with such a slippery to bodily crush the enemy rather than ly” holds the firepower.
terrain brought about by globalisation any numerical majority that supports From the very beginning Chavism in
and traversed by myriad images and a government or a policy. all its exorbitance foreshadowed ten-
desires circulated by the media, the The result is “dominance without dencies at work everywhere in times
Venezuelan state is unable to totalise hegemony” (Ranajit Guha). Having of the “retreat of the political”. Trump’s
society, or represent it as a whole so- lost its majority, Chavism still insists populist, Humpty Dumpty–like assault
ciety accountable to itself. on maintaining power. To achieve on American liberalism bears witness
Like sovereignty or democracy, this, the massively corrupt regime to similar tendencies. In order to de-
populism too mutates amidst such an has developed a whole new arsenal fend democracy and liberalism, we will
unstoppable “retreat of the political” of control mechanisms ranging from need to rethink them in the face of this
as the instance capable of totalising the wholesale distribution of weapons withdrawal of the political.
“society”. If in classical populism ap- to civilians, the so-called colectivos, to

17
DEMOCRACY AT RISK

DEMOCRACY ON THE BRINK:


FOUR KEY INSIGHTS
Christine Lutringer
Senior Research Fellow, Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy

D emocratisation is not a linear


process, nor can the continued
development of liberal democracy be
ry’s systematic dismantling of liberal
democratic institutions. For the Middle
East, Ould Mohamedou shows how in
as Krastev suggests, liberal and illib-
eral democracies today seem to mirror
each other’s anxieties. While Russia
taken for granted. Disenchantment the name of “stability” and “security” continues to be obsessed about the
with democracy has gained ground Western governments have tolerated Western gaze, the expansion of Rus-
among new democracies where many the ongoing “rebranding of authori- sian authoritarianism has gripped the
of the promises associated with eco- tarianism“. Democratic ideals in the political imagination of the West as
nomic and political freedom have failed Middle East and North Africa region well. If there is justifiable concern with
to materialise. But trust in political have thus been compromised by an in- the ideological and financial links be-
elites and institutions has also plum- terplay of internal and external forces. tween Putin and the European Right,
meted in many of the established
democracies.
By drawing attention to changing
narratives about the shape, and even “We are currently
the desirability, of democratic institu-
tions as well as examining the practices witnessing an expansion
of governance in many majoritarian
democracies, the contributors to this of the repertoire of
issue of Global Challenges highlight
some key aspects of the undermining democracy along with
of liberal democracy worldwide:
1. Ambiguous impact of the (in) that of authoritarianism
action of international institutions.
Neoliberal structural adjustment pro- – or, perhaps, even the
grammes have had a detrimental im-
pact on representative institutions in blurring of the two.”
several countries of the Global South
(and some in the Global North too, as
the case of Greece shows), as suggest-
ed by Sánchez’s analysis of populism 2. Shifts in the attractiveness of there is equal worry that the Russian
in Venezuela. Yet, paradoxically, where democratic and authoritarian models. model may predict the future shape of
supranational institutions, or interna- Sylvan’s analysis alerts us to the polities (including Western democra-
tional financial institutions, possess worldwide historic influence that the cies) worldwide.
some leverage to ensure prevalence of US “democratic model” has exerted 3. Restructuring of state insti-
the rule of law, freedom of expression through its oft-lauded constitution, its tutions amidst new socio­economic
or separation of powers, they often fail culture of active political participation, configurations. Krastev identifies a
to use it to ensure a commitment to and its strong civic movements. The new pattern of resource extraction in
these liberal principles. Randeria ar- current political scenario, however, Russia which may be best character-
gues that EU intervention and sanc- calls into question several aspects of ised as “spoliation and neglect”. Rand-
tions have been conspicuous by their this model, and emboldens illiberal eria delineates the new contours of the
absence despite, for instance, Hunga- voices all over the globe. Moreover, Hungarian state, which has narrowed

18
USA, Washington, all spaces of dissent while concentrat- governance by “rule of law” into an tributions to this dossier. But in what
DC, Democracy ing economic power in the hands of a authoritarian “rule by law”. Focusing sense these can be considered democ-
Spring activists,
April 2016. tiny elite loyal to the leader. In Vene- on Uganda, Tapscott’s analysis reveals racies at all remains a moot question.
zuela, where the expansion of execu- the subtle ways in which a state main- We need a better understanding of
tive power goes hand in hand with a tains control over society by fostering citizens’ experiences of politics and
breakdown of political representation, a climate of uncertainty fuelled by ar- the state in everyday life across the
Sánchez explores the emergence of bitrary interventions. Thus, irrespec- world: the protection of civil liberties
bodily affect as “a crucial political and tive of formally liberal politics, “insti- can hardly be sustained within polit-
social crucible”. Given the retreat of tutionalised arbitrariness” precludes ical, economic and social structures
the political, the Chavist regime has citizens from entertaining reliable designed to buttress illiberal regimes.
used control mechanisms embedded expectations regarding state-society These structures influence citizens’
in the military and economic machin- relationships. perceptions of the state, which in turn
ery of the state to strengthen its own The lived experiences of democ- produces particular types of subjects
power base. racies today are being shaped by a and subjectivities. To understand
4. Use of liberal means to es- multitude of reconfigurations at the current patterns and future trajecto-
tablish and entrench illiberal de- national, local and translocal levels. ries of (il)liberal democracies, it is as
mocracies. Ironically, elections can At the beginning of the 21st century, important to study the working and
be instruments for disempowering we are witnessing an expansion of the transformations of institutions as it is
citizens where they serve to liberate repertoire of democracy along with to analyse the responses of citizens
elites from the electorate (Krastev). that of authoritarianism; or, perhaps, to these changes. Today, the need to
The 2017 constitutional referendum even the blurring of the demarcation counter “the overproduction of opin-
in Turkey was organised to formally between the two. Bayart identifies the ionated opinion” – as emphasised by
reinforce presidential powers amidst power dynamics between the propo- Albert O. Hirschman in 1989 – and to
widespread intimidation and massive nents of authoritarianism and those get the citizenry to engage critically in
purges (Bayart). Large parliamentary of democracy as the real issue in the the polity is as urgent as ever. Creative
majorities can be used to undermine face of an intensifying struggle over imagination is required in order to (re)
the rule of law and to establish instead the redefinition of democracy. Illiberal make democracies into vibrant spac-
illiberal forms of rule by hastily pass- democracies do not share unique de- es of participation but also objects of
ing ad hoc legislation without public fining features that would allow them political desire.
scrutiny. Randeria analyses the pro- to be subsumed under a common de-
cesses that transformed Hungary’s nominator, as illustrated by the con-

19
The Albert Hirschman
Centre on Democracy
at the Graduate Institute, Geneva

T he Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy addresses the current challenges faced by


both established and more recent democracies in an interdisciplinary and comparative
perspective.
In view of the growing disenchantment with liberal democracy as well as the tensions between
neoliberal globalisation and democracy, the Centre seeks to develop projects that bridge theo-
retical and empirical research, academic and policy work.
Its activities include:
> research that aims to understand the plurality of democratic experiences by focusing on
citizens’ democratic aspirations, their dissatisfaction with existing institutions as well as
the dynamics of participation and protest in various regions of the world. Drawing on
Albert O. Hirschman’s scholarship, research at the Centre also aims to explore changing
forms of civic engagement including different forms of ‘voice’ and ‘exit’
> organisation of a series of public lectures and conferences
> collaborative activities with academic institutions, international organisations as well as
with partners in Switzerland and worldwide

ALBERT HIRSCHMAN
Among the foremost intellectuals of the twentieth century, Albert O. Hirschman was a brilliant
theorist of problems of economic and political development. Born in Berlin in 1915, his work
addressed two questions that are fundamental to the study of democratic politics today: When
and why do people engage in, or disengage from, public welfare and public action? When and how
do people bring about social and political change?
© Hernan Diaz

Contact: democracy@graduateinstitute.ch
@AHDCentre

graduateinstitute.ch/democracy

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